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Hovnanian (HOV)
NYSE:HOV

Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) AI Stock Analysis

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HOV

Hovnanian Enterprises

(NYSE:HOV)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$134.00
▲(0.62% Upside)
Hovnanian Enterprises' overall stock score reflects a combination of strong financial management and undervaluation, tempered by bearish technical indicators and mixed earnings call sentiment. The company's strategic debt restructuring is a positive factor, but challenges in revenue growth and market conditions weigh on the outlook.
Positive Factors
Debt Restructuring
The restructuring optimizes the debt profile, enhances financial flexibility, and strengthens the balance sheet, supporting long-term stability.
Community Growth
Steady growth in community numbers indicates a strong market presence and potential for future revenue expansion.
Cash Flow Generation
Improved cash flow generation enhances operational flexibility and supports reinvestment in growth opportunities.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
A significant revenue decline indicates challenges in maintaining market share and could impact future profitability.
High Incentives
Increased incentives pressure margins, reducing profitability and potentially affecting long-term financial health.
Decreased Lot Count
A reduced lot count limits future development opportunities, impacting long-term growth potential and revenue streams.

Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Hovnanian Enterprises Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHovnanian Enterprises, Inc. engages in the design, construction, marketing, and sale of residential homes in the United States. It offers single-family detached homes, attached townhomes and condominiums, urban infill, and active lifestyle homes with amenities, such as clubhouses, swimming pools, tennis courts, tot lots, and open areas. The company markets and builds homes for first-time buyers, first-time and second-time move-up buyers, luxury buyers, active lifestyle buyers, and empty nesters. It also provides mortgage loans and title insurance services. The company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Matawan, New Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyHovnanian Enterprises generates revenue primarily through the sale of residential properties, which includes the construction and sale of single-family homes and condominiums. The company builds homes in a variety of price ranges, enabling it to target a broad customer base. Key revenue streams include home sales, which account for the bulk of its income, as well as ancillary services such as mortgage financing and title insurance through its subsidiaries. Hovnanian also benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers and subcontractors, allowing for cost efficiencies and improved margins. Additionally, the company may engage in joint ventures for land development, further enhancing its revenue potential.

Hovnanian Enterprises Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Dec 04, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture, with the company achieving or surpassing guidance metrics in several areas, like revenue and EBITDA, and successfully refinancing debt. However, significant year-over-year revenue declines, reduced contracts, and high incentives pressuring margins highlighted challenges in the current market environment. The sentiment reflects a cautious outlook with positive long-term strategic positioning.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and Margin Performance
Revenues reached $818 million, surpassing the midpoint of guidance. Adjusted gross margin came in at 16.3%, near the high end of guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA Exceeds Expectations
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $89 million, exceeding the guidance range.
Strong Community Growth
Ended the quarter with 156 communities open for sale, reflecting steady growth and focus on expanding the top line.
Successful Debt Refinancing
For the first time since 2008, all debt except for revolving credit facility is now unsecured, strengthening the balance sheet and providing greater financial flexibility.
Positive Traffic Trends
Traffic per community increased significantly in three of four months compared to last year, highlighting a positive trend in buyer interest.
Negative Updates
Year-over-Year Revenue Decline
Total revenues declined by 17% year over year, primarily driven by a 13% reduction in deliveries and the absence of a significant land sale from the previous year.
Decline in Contracts and Challenging Sales Environment
Number of contracts in the fourth quarter fell by 8% compared to last year, reflecting overall market conditions and economic uncertainties.
High Incentives Pressure Margins
Incentives accounted for 12.2% of the average sales price, up 370 basis points compared to a year ago, pressuring margins.
Decreased Lot Count
Lot count decreased 14% year over year due to disciplined land acquisition and postponement of less attractive deals.
Company Guidance
During Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.'s Fiscal 2025 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance that was met or exceeded across key financial metrics. Revenues reached $818 million, surpassing the midpoint of their guidance, while the adjusted gross margin was 16.3%, near the high end of expectations. SG&A expenses were 11.2%, close to the lower end of guidance, and income from unconsolidated joint ventures slightly exceeded expectations at $13 million. Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $89 million, exceeding the guidance range, and adjusted pretax income was $49 million, near the midpoint of guidance. Despite a 17% year-over-year decline in total revenues due to a reduction in deliveries and the absence of significant land sales, the company maintained its strategic focus on sales pace over price, using mortgage rate buy-downs to support affordability. The QMI sales strategy continued to be effective, although challenges like higher interest expenses and a mix of older, lower-margin lots impacted profitability. The company remains optimistic about future improvements as newer land acquisitions are expected to enhance margins.

Hovnanian Enterprises Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Hovnanian Enterprises demonstrates strong gross margins and improved cash flow generation, but faces challenges in revenue growth and net profitability. The balance sheet shows better leverage management, yet the return on equity has declined. Overall, the company is managing its operations efficiently but needs to focus on enhancing revenue growth and profitability.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Hovnanian Enterprises shows a strong gross profit margin of 96.81% in the latest year, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 2.14%, and revenue has declined by 5.15%, suggesting challenges in maintaining top-line growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased compared to previous years, reflecting reduced operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 1.12 from higher levels in previous years, indicating better leverage management. However, the return on equity has decreased significantly to 7.69%, suggesting reduced profitability from shareholders' equity. Overall, the balance sheet shows improvement in leverage but challenges in equity returns.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating cash flow has increased significantly, with a strong free cash flow growth of 46.29%, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, suggesting efficient conversion of income to cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly below 1, indicating room for improvement in cash flow efficiency.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.14B2.98B3.00B2.76B2.92B2.78B
Gross Profit545.68M2.88B601.79M580.14M643.43M540.80M
EBITDA240.86M135.39M355.57M283.75M364.39M271.39M
Net Income158.88M63.87M242.01M205.89M225.49M607.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.63B2.63B2.61B2.49B2.56B2.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments146.59M285.38M209.98M434.12M326.20M245.97M
Total Debt941.32M930.21M1.02B1.17B1.31B1.39B
Total Liabilities1.79B1.80B1.81B1.91B2.18B2.15B
Stockholders Equity835.36M830.93M800.35M581.74M383.04M174.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow113.60M166.18M5.78M416.45M76.87M204.27M
Operating Cash Flow135.03M188.28M23.64M435.27M89.47M210.21M
Investing Cash Flow-66.81M-66.01M-46.47M-78.23M-2.15M9.00M
Financing Cash Flow-57.27M-70.39M-187.93M-261.71M-16.52M-217.27M

Hovnanian Enterprises Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price133.18
Price Trends
50DMA
112.70
Positive
100DMA
123.74
Positive
200DMA
116.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.25
Negative
RSI
65.87
Neutral
STOCH
93.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 133.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.69, above the 50-day MA of 112.70, and above the 200-day MA of 116.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HOV.

Hovnanian Enterprises Risk Analysis

Hovnanian Enterprises disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hovnanian Enterprises reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Hovnanian Enterprises Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$3.58B8.1615.76%4.77%-9.30%
73
Outperform
$3.02B10.489.47%-16.60%-29.85%
69
Neutral
$2.02B10.028.37%1.99%-6.28%-31.55%
65
Neutral
$1.24B11.985.21%-20.62%-45.74%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
60
Neutral
$719.48M16.947.69%-0.84%-76.30%
56
Neutral
$701.41M15.693.67%1.77%-66.27%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HOV
Hovnanian Enterprises
125.47
-13.85
-9.94%
BZH
Beazer Homes
24.10
-4.15
-14.69%
MHO
M/I Homes
139.00
1.32
0.96%
TPH
Tri Pointe
35.50
-1.74
-4.67%
LGIH
LGI Homes
54.27
-38.21
-41.32%
CCS
Century Communities
69.13
-5.55
-7.43%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 23, 2025