Beazer Homes (BZH) AI Stock Analysis

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Beazer Homes

(NYSE:BZH)

Rating:70Outperform

Price Target:

$24.00

▲(12.36%Upside)

Beazer Homes' overall stock score is driven primarily by its strong valuation and positive technical indicators. While the financial performance is mixed with concerns over cash flow, strategic initiatives highlighted in the earnings call and attractive valuation metrics contribute positively. The company's focus on growth and shareholder value amidst a challenging selling environment further underscores its potential.

Beazer Homes (BZH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$647.28M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)383.82K

Price to Earnings (P/E)6.9

Beta (1Y)1.45

Revenue Growth13.50%

EPS Growth-40.36%

CountryUS

Employees1,158

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength63

IndustryResidential Construction

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.42

Shares Outstanding30,303,406

10 Day Avg. Volume357,593

30 Day Avg. Volume383,822

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.05

Price to Book (P/B)0.53

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-8.35

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$35.33

Price Target Upside65.40% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

Beazer Homes Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBeazer Homes USA, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. It designs, constructs, and sells single-family and multi-family homes under the Beazer Homes, Gatherings, and Choice Plans names. The company sells its homes through commissioned new home sales counselors and independent brokers in Arizona, California, Nevada, Texas, Delaware, Maryland, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Beazer Homes USA, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes MoneyBeazer Homes generates its revenue primarily through the sale of homes. The company's revenue model is based on the construction and sale of single-family homes, which are offered across a variety of price ranges and styles to meet the needs of different market segments. Beazer Homes' key revenue streams include home sales, which are influenced by factors such as housing demand, pricing strategies, and construction costs. The company may also generate additional income through the sale of land and development of residential communities. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and contractors, as well as effective cost management, play significant roles in optimizing profitability and ensuring competitive pricing for their homes.

Beazer Homes Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: 9.37%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Beazer Homes reported better-than-expected earnings and significant share repurchases, with a focus on growing community count and book value per share. However, the company faced challenges with a slower selling environment and elevated spec sales, leading to reduced land spending expectations. Despite these challenges, the company remains committed to its long-term goals.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Better-than-Anticipated Earnings

The second quarter results reflected better-than-anticipated earnings, with adjusted EBITDA of $38.8 million and earnings per diluted share of $0.42.

Improved Community Count

The company reported a growing community count, up nearly 12% year-over-year, and expects to end the year with a community count in the 170s.

Significant Share Repurchases

Beazer Homes repurchased more than $20 million of stock in the quarter, bringing total repurchases to $42 million over the past three years. A new authorization for $100 million in share repurchases was announced.

Book Value Per Share Growth

The company has achieved a five-year CAGR of over 17% in book value per share and targets a double-digit CAGR through fiscal 2027.

Zero Energy Ready Home Success

The company has nearly achieved its Zero Energy Ready goal, with only 30 homes left to start from the prior product series.

Negative Updates

Slower-than-Anticipated Selling Environment

The quarter was characterized by a slower-than-anticipated selling environment due to affordability challenges, weakening consumer sentiment, and increased economic uncertainty.

High Spec Sales Mix

The mix of spec sales remained exceptionally elevated, mirroring the 70% seen in the second quarter, which is higher than anticipated.

Reduced Land Spending Expectations

Due to the slower sales environment and focus on share repurchases, expectations for full-year land spending were reduced to $750 million to $800 million.

Limited Improvement in Mortgage Rates and Consumer Sentiment

The company is not expecting any improvement in mortgage rates or consumer sentiment in the near term.

Company Guidance

During the Beazer Homes earnings call for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the company provided detailed guidance and updates on its capital allocation priorities. The call revealed an adjusted EBITDA of $38.8 million and earnings per diluted share of $0.42. Despite a slower-than-anticipated selling environment, Beazer Homes repurchased over $20 million in stock, contributing to a three-year total of $42 million. The company outlined its multiyear goals, including a target to exceed 200 communities by fiscal 2027 and achieve a net debt to net capitalization ratio in the low 30s by the same year. Beazer Homes also announced a $100 million share repurchase authorization, representing nearly 20% of its current market cap, to be executed over multiple years. For the third quarter, the company anticipates closing between 1,050 and 1,100 homes, with sales projected to rise 5% to 10% year-over-year, and an adjusted gross margin expected to slightly increase sequentially. The full-year outlook includes a community count increase of 12.5% to 15% and a reduction in land spending to $750 million-$800 million, highlighting a strategic focus on balancing growth, deleveraging, and shareholder value enhancement.

Beazer Homes Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Beazer Homes shows stable profitability with a solid gross profit margin and positive revenue growth. The balance sheet is strengthened by eliminating total debt, although past leverage poses historical risks. Cash flow challenges persist with negative operating cash flow, impacting financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Positive

The company demonstrates a solid performance with a TTM gross profit margin of 17.1% and a net profit margin of 5.0%. Revenue growth is positive, albeit moderate, with a recent increase of 4.0% from the previous annual report. Margins are stable but have slightly declined from historical highs.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company has improved its financial position by eliminating total debt in the TTM period, resulting in a favorable debt-to-equity ratio of 0. This improvement supports a strong equity ratio of 47.5%. However, historical leverage was significant, indicating past financial risk.

Cash Flow

Neutral

The company faces challenges in cash flow, with a negative operating cash flow in the TTM period. Free cash flow has also seen a decline, impacting its financial flexibility. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential liquidity concerns.

TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.44B	2.33B	2.21B	2.32B	2.14B	2.13B
	Gross Profit
398.89M	424.29M	442.69M	537.51M	404.25M	347.64M
	EBIT
102.28M	143.03M	177.25M	272.49M	146.87M	79.11M
	EBITDA
120.84M	157.89M	190.09M	285.85M	160.84M	94.75M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
95.18M	140.18M	158.61M	220.70M	122.02M	52.23M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
165.39M	203.91M	345.59M	214.59M	246.72M	327.69M
	Total Assets
2.52B	2.59B	2.41B	2.25B	2.08B	2.01B
	Total Debt
1.04B	1.05B	997.00M	994.65M	1.07B	1.15B
	Net Debt
875.46M	841.22M	651.41M	780.05M	821.47M	818.44M
	Total Liabilities
1.35B	1.36B	1.31B	1.31B	1.35B	1.41B
	Stockholders Equity
1.16B	1.23B	1.10B	939.29M	724.88M	593.17M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-77.82M	-159.90M	157.72M	66.03M	17.01M	278.45M
	Operating Cash Flow
-53.91M	-137.54M	178.06M	81.07M	31.66M	289.10M
	Investing Cash Flow
-20.65M	-30.01M	-29.67M	-14.71M	-14.19M	-10.16M
	Financing Cash Flow
17.63M	23.88M	-13.93M	-88.68M	-85.85M	-59.20M

Beazer Homes Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price21.36

Price Trends

50DMA

20.36

Positive

100DMA

22.11

Negative

200DMA

26.85

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.18

Positive

RSI

52.34

Neutral

STOCH

80.28

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BZH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 21.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.49, above the 50-day MA of 20.36, and below the 200-day MA of 26.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.28 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BZH.

Beazer Homes Risk Analysis

Beazer Homes disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Beazer Homes reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks

Q4, 2024

Beazer Homes Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TPH	77 Outperform	$2.72B	6.69	13.28%	―	10.82%	19.34%
MHO	74 Outperform	$2.87B	5.66	19.02%	―	8.68%	8.39%
BZH	70 Outperform	$647.28M	6.90	7.97%	―	13.50%	-40.36%
HOV	69 Neutral	$553.15M	3.33	28.55%	―	7.93%	-3.59%
CCS	65 Neutral	$1.60B	5.41	12.36%	2.10%	10.75%	8.31%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.88B	11.32	2.95%	3.87%	2.70%	-24.57%
LGIH	58 Neutral	$1.16B	6.31	9.36%	―	-4.37%	-3.17%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BZH

Beazer Homes

21.36

-6.97

-24.60%

HOV

Hovnanian Enterprises

94.01

-57.39

-37.91%

MHO

M/I Homes

107.05

-17.05

-13.74%

TPH

Tri Pointe

30.02

-7.45

-19.88%

LGIH

LGI Homes

48.96

-44.04

-47.35%

CCS

Century Communities

52.31

-27.83

-34.73%

Beazer Homes Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsStock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy

Beazer Homes Accelerates Share Repurchase Program

Positive

Feb 6, 2025

On February 6, 2025, Beazer Homes held its annual stockholder meeting where key decisions included the election of directors and the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2025. The company also announced an acceleration in its share repurchase program, taking advantage of a share price dislocation, aiming to buy back shares at a significant discount to book value. This strategic move is expected to moderately affect debt reduction goals but aligns with Beazer’s long-term financial strategy. The company reaffirmed its commitment to reducing its net debt to net capitalization ratio and achieving its multi-year goals.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.