Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) AI Stock Analysis

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Kinsale Capital Group

(NYSE:KNSL)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

$506.00

▲(17.21% Upside)

Kinsale Capital Group's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, highlighting robust growth and strategic positioning. However, technical indicators suggest potential bearish momentum, and the valuation indicates moderate pricing with a low dividend yield. Competitive challenges in the Commercial Property division also present risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates effective market penetration and product demand, supporting long-term business expansion and profitability.

Cash Flow Generation

Robust cash flow generation enhances financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and resilience against market fluctuations.

Balance Sheet Health

A debt-free balance sheet ensures financial stability and reduces risk, allowing the company to capitalize on growth opportunities without financial strain.

Negative Factors

Commercial Property Challenges

Declining premiums in the Commercial Property division suggest competitive pressures that may impact revenue and profitability in this segment.

Competitive Market Environment

Intense competition in the E&S market could pressure margins and limit pricing power, challenging future growth and profitability.

Negative Pricing Trends

Negative pricing trends in certain lines could erode margins and affect the company's ability to maintain profitability in affected segments.

Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$10.17B

Dividend Yield0.15%

Average Volume (3M)189.89K

Price to Earnings (P/E)22.2

Beta (1Y)0.38

Revenue Growth21.51%

EPS Growth20.03%

CountryUS

Employees660

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength73

IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)4.78

Shares Outstanding23,300,001

10 Day Avg. Volume189,477

30 Day Avg. Volume189,893

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.76

Price to Book (P/B)7.26

Price to Sales (P/S)6.78

P/FCF Ratio11.31

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13

Enterprise Value/Revenue6.65

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.61

Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.13

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$500.67

Price Target Upside15.98% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering11

Kinsale Capital Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKinsale Capital Group, Inc., a specialty insurance company, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company's commercial lines offerings include construction, small business, excess and general casualty, commercial property, allied health, life sciences, energy, environmental, health care, inland marine, public entity, and commercial insurance, as well as product, professional, and management liability insurance. It markets and sells its insurance products in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands primarily through a network of independent insurance brokers. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

How the Company Makes MoneyKinsale Capital Group generates revenue primarily through the underwriting of insurance premiums from its diverse portfolio of specialty insurance products. The company earns money by collecting premiums from policyholders, which are then invested to generate additional income. Key revenue streams include commercial general liability, property insurance, and professional liability coverage, among others. The company also benefits from favorable loss ratios, which enhance profitability. Partnerships with brokers and agents are significant as they help expand Kinsale's market reach, allowing the company to tap into various niche markets and increase its policyholder base, contributing to overall earnings.

Kinsale Capital Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Breakdown
Analyzes different sources of income, highlighting which segments drive growth and how diversified the company's revenue streams are.

Chart InsightsKinsale Capital Group's revenue growth is driven by a consistent rise in net earned premiums and investment income, despite challenges in the Commercial Property division. The earnings call highlights a robust 33.1% increase in net investment income and strong profitability metrics, with a combined ratio of 82%. However, the company faces headwinds from increased competition and wildfire losses. Excluding the struggling Commercial Property segment, other divisions like personal lines and small commercial property continue to expand at double-digit rates, showcasing the company's resilience and strategic focus on diversified growth.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Kinsale Capital Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of strong financial performance with notable growth in earnings, book value, and investment income, contrasted by challenges in the competitive market environment, particularly in the Commercial Property division. Despite these challenges, the company seems optimistic about their strategic positioning and future growth prospects.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Earnings Growth

Operating earnings per share increased by 27.5%. Net income and net operating earnings increased by 44.9% and 27.4%, respectively.

Improved Combined Ratio

The company posted a combined ratio of 75.8%, with 3.9 points from net favorable prior year loss reserve development.

Book Value Growth

Book value per share increased by 16% since the year-end 2024.

Reinsurance Program Favorability

Renewed reinsurance program with slightly more favorable terms, including increased retention and ceding commission.

Net Investment Income Increase

Net investment income increased by 29.6% in the second quarter over last year.

Low Expense Ratio

Expense ratio decreased to 20.7% from 21.1% last year.

Product Expansion

Broadened agribusiness vertical to include property coverage and launched a new homeowners product in several states.

Negative Updates

Commercial Property Premium Drop

Commercial Property division saw premium drop by 16.8% due to high levels of competition and rate declines.

Competitive Market Challenges

The E&S market remains competitive with aggressive pricing from MGAs and front-end companies.

Decline in Submission Growth

Submission growth was 9% for the quarter, down from 10% in the first quarter.

Negative Rate Trends in Some Lines

Pricing trends include a 2.4% overall decrease, with some professional and management liability lines slightly negative.

Company Guidance

During Kinsale Capital Group's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, several key metrics were highlighted that underscore the company's financial performance and strategic positioning. Operating earnings per share increased by 27.5%, while gross written premium saw a 4.9% rise compared to the same period in 2024. The company's combined ratio stood at 75.8%, with a robust 6-month operating return on equity of 24.7%. Additionally, Kinsale's book value per share grew by 16% since year-end 2024. In terms of business segments, the Commercial Property division experienced a 16.8% drop in premium due to heightened competition, although excluding this division, the company's overall premium grew by 14.3%. The reinsurance program witnessed changes with increased retention levels and slightly improved ceding commissions. Furthermore, the company reported a net income increase of 44.9%, with net investment income rising by 29.6% in the quarter, reflecting strong operating cash flows and an annualized gross return of 4.3% for the first half of the year. The call emphasized Kinsale's strategic focus on small E&S accounts, data analytics, and cost-efficient operations, which continue to position the company for both profitability and growth across various market environments.

Kinsale Capital Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kinsale Capital Group demonstrates strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth, robust profitability, and a sound balance sheet with zero debt reliance. The company's cash flow generation is notably strong, supporting its operational and strategic initiatives. However, the absence of EBIT and EBITDA margins for 2024 suggests a potential strategic change.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Kinsale Capital Group displayed an impressive revenue growth rate of approximately 29.61% from 2023 to 2024. The company maintains a robust gross profit margin at 100%, given its business model in the insurance industry. Net profit margin improved significantly from 25.17% in 2023 to 26.13% in 2024, reflecting strong profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins are not applicable for 2024, which may indicate a strategic change or reclassification of expenses.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, highlighting no reliance on debt financing. Return on equity increased from 28.36% in 2023 to 27.96% in 2024, indicating efficient use of equity despite a slight decline. The equity ratio stands robust at 30.36% in 2024, suggesting a stable financial position with a healthy proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Kinsale Capital Group's cash flow position is excellent, with a substantial free cash flow growth rate of 11.61% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.35, underscoring effective cash generation from operations. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 2.30 highlights solid cash profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.72B	1.59B	1.22B	819.20M	639.78M	459.89M
Gross Profit	1.51B	814.63M	1.22B	819.20M	639.78M	459.89M
EBITDA	810.54M	530.65M	397.59M	202.57M	192.10M	102.16M
Net Income	446.67M	414.84M	308.09M	159.11M	152.66M	88.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.56B	4.89B	3.77B	2.75B	2.03B	1.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.14B	3.65B	126.69M	1.96B	1.51B	1.16B
Total Debt	184.26M	184.12M	183.85M	195.75M	42.70M	42.57M
Total Liabilities	3.83B	3.40B	2.69B	2.00B	82.06M	970.66M
Stockholders Equity	1.72B	1.48B	1.09B	745.45M	699.34M	576.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	940.11M	952.36M	853.23M	550.91M	401.12M	247.10M
Operating Cash Flow	985.88M	976.30M	859.84M	557.82M	407.04M	279.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-968.21M	-960.13M	-860.89M	-708.57M	-351.95M	-379.43M
Financing Cash Flow	-50.59M	-29.66M	-28.52M	185.99M	-11.14M	76.14M

Kinsale Capital Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price431.69

Price Trends

50DMA

459.08

Negative

100DMA

461.47

Negative

200DMA

462.51

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-5.31

Positive

RSI

38.73

Neutral

STOCH

21.57

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KNSL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 431.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 450.45, below the 50-day MA of 459.08, and below the 200-day MA of 462.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KNSL.

Kinsale Capital Group Risk Analysis

Kinsale Capital Group disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kinsale Capital Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Kinsale Capital Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
THG	79 Outperform	$6.51B	11.99	19.23%	2.00%	4.47%	102.98%
AFG	78 Outperform	$11.69B	15.38	17.17%	6.56%	3.35%	-14.16%
AXS	76 Outperform	$7.76B	9.21	15.07%	1.77%	6.87%	43.53%
RLI	76 Outperform	$6.15B	18.95	19.49%	3.91%	10.29%	-4.70%
KNSL	74 Outperform	$10.17B	22.22	29.98%	0.15%	21.51%	20.03%
CNA	68 Neutral	$12.96B	14.88	8.54%	7.98%	6.12%	-31.43%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.10B	11.66	9.93%	3.76%	9.70%	1.14%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

KNSL

Kinsale Capital Group

431.69

-32.17

-6.94%

AFG

American Financial Group

139.86

14.53

11.59%

AXS

Axis Capital

99.08

22.89

30.04%

CNA

CNA Financial

47.51

1.11

2.39%

RLI

66.88

-6.65

-9.04%

THG

Hanover Insurance

180.37

37.26

26.04%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 09, 2025