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Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL)
NYSE:KNSL

Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) AI Stock Analysis

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KNSL

Kinsale Capital Group

(NYSE:KNSL)

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Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$425.00
▲(6.44% Upside)
Kinsale Capital Group's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving its stock score. The company's strategic initiatives, including technological advancements and a share repurchase program, further enhance its outlook. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and challenges in the Commercial Property segment need to be addressed for sustained growth.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth reflects positive business momentum and expanding market reach, supporting long-term financial stability.
Technological Advancements
Investing in technology enhances operational efficiency and competitive positioning, enabling better service delivery and cost management.
Share Repurchase Program
The buyback program indicates confidence in the company's strategic direction and enhances shareholder value through disciplined capital allocation.
Negative Factors
Commercial Property Challenges
Declining premiums in the Commercial Property segment could hinder overall growth and require strategic adjustments to maintain profitability.
Expense Ratio Increase
Rising expense ratios can pressure margins, necessitating improved cost management to sustain profitability and competitive advantage.
Submission Growth Deceleration
Slower submission growth may indicate market saturation or competitive pressures, impacting future revenue expansion and market share gains.

Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kinsale Capital Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKinsale Capital Group, Inc., a specialty insurance company, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company's commercial lines offerings include construction, small business, excess and general casualty, commercial property, allied health, life sciences, energy, environmental, health care, inland marine, public entity, and commercial insurance, as well as product, professional, and management liability insurance. It markets and sells its insurance products in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands primarily through a network of independent insurance brokers. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
How the Company Makes MoneyKinsale Capital Group generates revenue primarily through the premiums collected from its insurance policies. The company operates in the excess and surplus lines market, where it offers customized insurance products that often come with higher premiums due to the unique risks involved. Key revenue streams include underwriting profits from these policies and investment income from managing the reserves set aside for future claims. Additionally, Kinsale's focus on niche markets allows it to maintain higher margins compared to traditional insurers. Significant partnerships with brokers and agents also contribute to its earnings, enabling the company to reach a broader client base and enhance its market presence.

Kinsale Capital Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Breakdown
Analyzes different sources of income, highlighting which segments drive growth and how diversified the company's revenue streams are.
Chart InsightsKinsale Capital Group's revenue growth is driven by a consistent rise in net earned premiums and investment income, despite challenges in the Commercial Property division. The earnings call highlights a robust 33.1% increase in net investment income and strong profitability metrics, with a combined ratio of 82%. However, the company faces headwinds from increased competition and wildfire losses. Excluding the struggling Commercial Property segment, other divisions like personal lines and small commercial property continue to expand at double-digit rates, showcasing the company's resilience and strategic focus on diversified growth.
Data provided by:The Fly

Kinsale Capital Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 23, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Kinsale Capital Group reported strong growth in earnings per share and book value, as well as significant advancements in technology and management structure. However, challenges remain in the Commercial Property segment with declining premiums and a higher expense ratio. Overall, the company seems well-positioned to navigate these challenges with a solid financial foundation and strategic leadership changes.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Metrics
Kinsale's operating earnings per share increased by 24% and gross written premium grew by 8.4% over the third quarter of 2024. The company posted a combined ratio of 74.9% and a 9-month operating return on equity of 25.4%.
Book Value Growth
Book value per share has increased by 25.8% since the year-end 2024.
Investment Income Surge
Net investment income increased by 25.1% in the third quarter over last year, driven by continued growth in the investment portfolio.
Technological Advancements
Kinsale is advancing its tech capabilities with a complete rewrite of their enterprise system and integrating AI for automation in business processes.
Management Changes
Brian Haney was elected to the Board of Directors and will take on a new role as Senior Adviser, while Stuart Winston was promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Underwriting Officer.
Negative Updates
Commercial Property Premium Decline
Commercial Property division saw a premium drop by 8% in the third quarter, though this was an improvement from a 17% drop in the second quarter.
Expense Ratio Increase
The expense ratio rose to 21% in the third quarter from 19.6% last year, due to lower ceding commissions and higher reinsurance retention levels.
Submission Growth Deceleration
Submission growth slowed to 6% for the quarter, down from 9% in the first quarter, driven by the Commercial Property division.
Company Guidance
In Kinsale Capital Group's third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a 24% increase in operating earnings per share and an 8.4% growth in gross written premium compared to the same period in 2024. The combined ratio for the quarter was 74.9%, with a nine-month operating return on equity reaching 25.4%. The company noted a 25.8% increase in book value per share since the end of 2024 and a 20% rise in float. Excluding the Commercial Property division, which experienced an 8% decline in premiums, the overall growth rate was 12.3%. Kinsale's disciplined underwriting and efficient business model continue to be competitive advantages, with net investment income rising by 25.1% in the quarter. The company's float grew to $3 billion by the end of September 2025, up from $2.5 billion at the end of 2024. Diluted operating earnings per share improved to $5.21, up from $4.20 in the third quarter of 2024. Kinsale remains optimistic about its growth prospects, leveraging its low-cost model to gain market share and deliver strong returns to investors.

Kinsale Capital Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kinsale Capital Group exhibits strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and robust profitability. The balance sheet is solid with zero debt reliance, and cash flow generation is notably strong. However, the absence of EBIT and EBITDA figures for 2024 suggests some strategic changes.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Kinsale Capital Group displayed an impressive revenue growth rate of approximately 29.61% from 2023 to 2024. The company maintains a robust gross profit margin at 100%, given its business model in the insurance industry. Net profit margin improved significantly from 25.17% in 2023 to 26.13% in 2024, reflecting strong profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins are not applicable for 2024, which may indicate a strategic change or reclassification of expenses.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, highlighting no reliance on debt financing. Return on equity increased from 28.36% in 2023 to 27.96% in 2024, indicating efficient use of equity despite a slight decline. The equity ratio stands robust at 30.36% in 2024, suggesting a stable financial position with a healthy proportion of equity financing.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Kinsale Capital Group's cash flow position is excellent, with a substantial free cash flow growth rate of 11.61% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.35, underscoring effective cash generation from operations. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 2.30 highlights solid cash profitability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.80B1.59B1.22B838.80M653.47M459.89M
Gross Profit776.61M680.44M510.51M287.13M255.91M142.31M
EBITDA608.35M530.65M397.59M202.57M192.10M102.16M
Net Income474.09M414.84M308.09M159.11M152.66M88.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.83B4.89B3.77B2.75B2.03B1.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.35B1.92B126.69M1.96B1.51B1.16B
Total Debt199.33M184.12M183.85M195.75M85.39M42.57M
Total Liabilities3.97B3.40B2.69B2.00B1.33B970.66M
Stockholders Equity1.87B1.48B1.09B745.45M699.34M576.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow961.45M952.36M853.23M550.91M401.12M247.10M
Operating Cash Flow1.02B976.30M859.84M557.82M407.04M279.97M
Investing Cash Flow-900.88M-960.13M-860.89M-708.57M-351.95M-379.43M
Financing Cash Flow-55.97M-29.66M-28.52M185.99M-11.14M76.14M

Kinsale Capital Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price399.29
Price Trends
50DMA
401.89
Negative
100DMA
422.97
Negative
200DMA
445.34
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.51
Negative
RSI
56.56
Neutral
STOCH
80.52
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KNSL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 399.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 379.80, below the 50-day MA of 401.89, and below the 200-day MA of 445.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KNSL.

Kinsale Capital Group Risk Analysis

Kinsale Capital Group disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kinsale Capital Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Kinsale Capital Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
$6.03B17.1919.49%4.01%3.72%-16.23%
79
Outperform
$12.84B12.969.03%8.10%5.41%-23.52%
77
Outperform
$6.57B10.6820.02%1.98%5.26%72.46%
75
Outperform
$9.29B19.6228.73%0.17%18.13%15.69%
70
Neutral
$8.32B8.7916.27%1.80%6.37%68.32%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
67
Neutral
$11.46B14.4216.91%6.75%-10.75%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KNSL
Kinsale Capital Group
399.29
-64.80
-13.96%
AFG
American Financial Group
137.46
5.65
4.29%
AXS
Axis Capital
107.94
19.71
22.34%
CNA
CNA Financial
47.43
2.47
5.49%
RLI
RLI
65.64
-13.57
-17.13%
THG
Hanover Insurance
184.77
34.09
22.62%

Kinsale Capital Group Corporate Events

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Kinsale Capital Announces Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Dec 11, 2025

On December 11, 2025, Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. announced amendments to its Note Purchase and Private Shelf Agreement and its Credit Agreement, allowing for more flexibility in making Restricted Payments, provided no default events occur. Additionally, the company authorized a new $250 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in its strategic direction and operational execution, aiming to return excess capital to stockholders.

Executive/Board Changes
Kinsale Capital Announces Board and Executive Changes
Neutral
Oct 23, 2025

On October 23, 2025, Kinsale Capital Group announced the election of Brian D. Haney to its Board of Directors, effective immediately, following his notification of retirement as President and Chief Operating Officer effective March 2, 2026. In conjunction with this transition, Michael P. Kehoe will assume the additional title of President, and Stuart P. Winston has been promoted to Executive Vice President, Chief Underwriting Officer. These changes are expected to maintain continuity and support the company’s growth and investor relations strategies.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 12, 2025