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Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL)
NYSE:KNSL

Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) AI Stock Analysis

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Kinsale Capital Group

(NYSE:KNSL)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$550.00
â–²(15.90%Upside)
Kinsale Capital Group's strong financial performance, characterized by revenue growth and robust profitability, is the most significant factor driving the stock score. Technical analysis supports a positive outlook, though not exceedingly strong. Valuation concerns regarding the P/E ratio mitigate the score, while positive earnings call insights add optimism despite competitive and environmental challenges.
Positive Factors
Competitive Advantage
Kinsale's proprietary technology platform quickens risk assessment and allows brokers to quickly bind policies, enabling Kinsale to run more efficiently than peers.
Growth Outlook
Kinsale's long-term growth and EPS outlook profile is compelling, with expectations of 10-20% growth, nearly double that of P&C peers, due to their material expense advantage and exclusive focus on the faster-growing E&S marketplace.
Return on Equity
Kinsale's Return on Equity is likely to exceed expectations by approximately 1 percentage point, aided by an increasing reinsurance arbitrage and a strong reserves position.
Negative Factors
E&S Property Pricing
There is a wariness of a slowing pace of beat and raises driven by less growth opportunities following a material deceleration in E&S property pricing due to competitive forces.
Growth Expectations
Near-term growth is likely to underwhelm consensus expectations by 2-3 percentage points, due to meaningful pressures within the large account property sandbox overwhelming moderate pricing power.
Market Competition
The attractive E&S market has grown increasingly competitive, putting significant pressure on Kinsale’s top line.

Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kinsale Capital Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKinsale Capital Group, Inc., a specialty insurance company, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company's commercial lines offerings include construction, small business, excess and general casualty, commercial property, allied health, life sciences, energy, environmental, health care, inland marine, public entity, and commercial insurance, as well as product, professional, and management liability insurance. It markets and sells its insurance products in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands primarily through a network of independent insurance brokers. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
How the Company Makes MoneyKinsale Capital Group generates revenue primarily through the underwriting of insurance policies within the excess and surplus lines market. The company collects premiums from policyholders in exchange for providing coverage against specific risks. A significant portion of its revenue comes from underwriting profit, which is the difference between the premiums collected and the claims paid, along with associated expenses. Kinsale also earns investment income by investing the premiums received in a diversified portfolio of securities. The company's focus on niche markets allows it to charge higher premiums, reflecting the specialized nature of the risks insured. Additionally, Kinsale has developed strong relationships with independent insurance brokers, which help in effectively distributing its products and expanding its market reach.

Kinsale Capital Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue Breakdown
Revenue Breakdown
Chart InsightsKinsale Capital Group's revenue growth is driven by a consistent rise in net earned premiums and investment income, despite challenges in the Commercial Property division. The earnings call highlights a robust 33.1% increase in net investment income and strong profitability metrics, with a combined ratio of 82%. However, the company faces headwinds from increased competition and wildfire losses. Excluding the struggling Commercial Property segment, other divisions like personal lines and small commercial property continue to expand at double-digit rates, showcasing the company's resilience and strategic focus on diversified growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Kinsale Capital Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -5.43%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Kinsale Capital Group demonstrated strong profitability and investment income growth despite challenges in their Commercial Property division and the impact of wildfires. The company maintained efficient cost management and saw positive trends in their casualty and professional lines. However, increased competition and a decline in new business submissions present ongoing challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Operating Earnings and Premium Growth
Kinsale’s operating earnings per share increased by 6% and gross written premium grew by 8% over the first quarter of 2024.
Strong Profitability Metrics
The company posted a combined ratio of 82% and an annualized operating return on equity of 22.5%.
Investment Income Growth
Net investment income increased by 33.1% compared to the previous year, driven by growth in the investment portfolio.
Efficient Cost Management
The expense ratio was maintained at 20%, showing strong cost management and efficiency.
Positive Indicators in Casualty and Professional Lines
Casualty lines, particularly commercial auto and general casualty, showed overall growth, and professional lines saw growth in allied health and excess professional areas.
Negative Updates
Commercial Property Division Challenges
The Commercial Property division experienced an 18% decrease, with intense competition and rate declines from the peak by about 20%.
Impact of California Wildfires
The Palisades wildfire resulted in an estimated $41 million gross and $22 million net of reinsurance loss.
Increased Competition in the Large Property Account Space
There is a noted increase in competition from standard companies and MGAs, affecting the growth prospects in large property accounts.
Decline in New Business Submissions
New business submission growth was 11% for the quarter, down from 17% in the fourth quarter.
Company Guidance
During the Kinsale Capital Group's first quarter 2025 earnings call, management provided guidance reflecting a robust financial performance despite challenges. Operating earnings per share increased by 6%, with a gross written premium growth of 8% compared to the first quarter of 2024. The company reported a combined ratio of 82% and an annualized operating return on equity of 22.5%. Kinsale's disciplined underwriting and conservative risk management approach were credited for maintaining profitability, even amidst a significant $22 million net loss from the Palisades wildfire. The company experienced an 18% decrease in its largest division, Commercial Property, due to increased competition and rate declines, impacting overall growth expectations of 10% to 20%. However, excluding Commercial Property, direct written premium rose by 16.7%. Kinsale's personal lines and small commercial property segments continued to expand at double-digit rates. Despite a 1% overall rate decline in the quarter, casualty rates increased modestly, particularly in construction and general casualty, while maintaining optimism for future growth driven by the company's low-cost model and market position.

Kinsale Capital Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kinsale Capital Group exhibits strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and robust profitability. The company maintains a zero debt position and excellent cash flow, underscoring effective financial management despite the absence of EBIT and EBITDA figures for 2024.
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Kinsale Capital Group displayed an impressive revenue growth rate of approximately 29.61% from 2023 to 2024. The company maintains a robust gross profit margin at 100%, given its business model in the insurance industry. Net profit margin improved significantly from 25.17% in 2023 to 26.13% in 2024, reflecting strong profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins are not applicable for 2024, which may indicate a strategic change or reclassification of expenses.
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
The balance sheet is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, highlighting no reliance on debt financing. Return on equity increased from 28.36% in 2023 to 27.96% in 2024, indicating efficient use of equity despite a slight decline. The equity ratio stands robust at 30.36% in 2024, suggesting a stable financial position with a healthy proportion of equity financing.
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
Kinsale Capital Group's cash flow position is excellent, with a substantial free cash flow growth rate of 11.61% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.35, underscoring effective cash generation from operations. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 2.30 highlights solid cash profitability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.64B1.59B1.22B819.20M639.78M459.89M
Gross Profit1.64B1.59B1.22B819.20M639.78M459.89M
EBITDA492.71M524.85M397.59M202.57M192.10M102.16M
Net Income405.13M414.84M308.09M159.11M152.66M88.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.21B4.89B3.77B2.75B2.03B1.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.86B3.65B126.69M1.96B1.51B1.16B
Total Debt0.00184.12M183.85M195.75M42.70M42.57M
Total Liabilities3.63B3.40B2.69B2.00B82.06M970.66M
Stockholders Equity1.58B1.48B1.09B745.45M699.34M576.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow963.15M952.36M853.23M550.91M401.12M247.10M
Operating Cash Flow995.72M976.30M859.84M557.82M407.04M279.97M
Investing Cash Flow-948.57M-960.13M-860.89M-708.57M-351.95M-379.43M
Financing Cash Flow-41.26M-29.66M-28.52M185.99M-11.14M76.14M

Kinsale Capital Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price474.56
Price Trends
50DMA
463.47
Positive
100DMA
461.94
Positive
200DMA
462.79
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.90
Negative
RSI
52.00
Neutral
STOCH
49.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KNSL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 474.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 471.89, above the 50-day MA of 463.47, and above the 200-day MA of 462.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KNSL.

Kinsale Capital Group Risk Analysis

Kinsale Capital Group disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kinsale Capital Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Kinsale Capital Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$11.10B27.4229.42%0.14%23.14%14.86%
RLRLI
69
Neutral
$6.53B23.4217.99%0.89%9.18%-16.06%
67
Neutral
$17.07B11.919.69%3.75%11.66%-9.47%
AFAFG
66
Neutral
$10.56B13.2818.51%7.53%3.76%-9.12%
CNCNA
65
Neutral
$12.36B13.928.98%4.03%6.34%-28.19%
THTHG
65
Neutral
$5.83B13.5315.74%2.19%3.09%168.29%
62
Neutral
$5.20B23.347.48%1.76%13.37%-35.09%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KNSL
Kinsale Capital Group
474.56
95.46
25.18%
AFG
American Financial Group
126.41
13.49
11.95%
CNA
CNA Financial
45.18
3.61
8.68%
RLI
RLI
71.19
3.83
5.69%
SIGI
Selective Insurance Group
85.60
-4.36
-4.85%
THG
Hanover Insurance
162.42
39.64
32.29%

Kinsale Capital Group Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kinsale Capital Group Holds 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 22, 2025

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. held its 2025 annual meeting of stockholders on May 22, 2025, where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and incentive plans. Stockholders approved the 2025 Omnibus Incentive Plan and an amendment to the Certificate of Incorporation to update the exculpation provision for certain officers, aligning with recent changes in Delaware law. Additionally, nine directors were elected, executive compensation was approved, and KPMG LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (KNSL) stock is a Hold with a $420.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kinsale Capital Group stock, see the KNSL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 21, 2025