American Financial Group (AFG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.92B
• Dividend Yield: 7.09%
• Average Volume (3M): 489.14K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: 3.35%
• EPS Growth: -14.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,700
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 2.14
• Shares Outstanding: 83,394,480
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 444,060
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 489,143
• PEG Ratio: 2.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.96
• 1Y Price Target: $130.00
• Price Target Upside: -1.85% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $144.00 ▲(8.72% Upside)

American Financial Group's stock score is driven by strong financial performance and attractive valuation, offset by bearish technical indicators and mixed earnings call sentiment. The company's robust dividend yield and stable balance sheet are significant strengths, while challenges in profitability and cash conversion present risks.

American Financial Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States. It offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property and specialty transportation coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets, as well as customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers' compensation insurance; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance. The company sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers. American Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

American Financial Group generates revenue primarily through its insurance underwriting operations, where it earns premiums from policyholders in its specialty property and casualty insurance segment. The company also collects investment income from its sizable investment portfolio, which includes bonds, stocks, and real estate investments. Additionally, AFG earns fees and commissions from the sale of annuities and life insurance products. Key revenue streams include the underwriting profit from insurance premiums minus claims and expenses, as well as returns from invested assets. The company's strategic partnerships with various distribution channels, including independent agents and brokers, further enhance its market reach and revenue generation capabilities.

American Financial Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

American Financial Group demonstrates strong revenue growth and a stable balance sheet, but faces challenges in profitability and cash conversion. The company's financials reflect a solid foundation with opportunities for enhancing operational efficiency and cash flow management.

Income Statement

American Financial Group has shown strong revenue growth, particularly in the TTM period with a 46.1% increase. The gross profit margin remains healthy, although the net profit margin has slightly decreased in the TTM. The EBIT margin has turned negative in the TTM, indicating potential operational challenges. Overall, the income statement reflects strong revenue growth but with some profitability concerns.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33 in the TTM, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. The return on equity remains strong, although it has slightly decreased compared to previous years. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability with manageable leverage.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a positive free cash flow growth rate of 21.9% in the TTM, indicating improved cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting potential issues in converting income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, reflecting efficient cash management. Overall, the cash flow statement indicates good cash generation with some areas for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.28B	8.28B	7.73B	6.77B	6.23B	5.65B
Gross Profit	4.23B	3.82B	7.45B	3.14B	3.07B	5.58B
EBITDA	1.11B	1.28B	1.23B	1.31B	1.62B	726.00M
Net Income	764.00M	887.00M	852.00M	898.00M	2.00B	732.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	30.67B	30.84B	29.79B	28.83B	28.94B	73.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.00B	1.95B	1.75B	10.97B	12.49B	10.75B
Total Debt	1.48B	1.48B	1.67B	1.61B	1.96B	1.96B
Total Liabilities	26.15B	26.37B	25.53B	24.78B	23.93B	66.78B
Stockholders Equity	4.52B	4.47B	4.26B	4.05B	5.01B	6.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.74B	1.15B	1.90B	1.07B	1.56B	1.84B
Operating Cash Flow	1.67B	1.15B	1.97B	1.15B	1.71B	2.18B
Investing Cash Flow	160.00M	95.00M	414.00M	-1.05B	-436.00M	-1.56B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.68B	-1.07B	-2.03B	-1.36B	-1.96B	-123.00M

American Financial Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 132.45
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 132.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 140.15, below the 50-day MA of 137.85, and above the 200-day MA of 127.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.61 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AFG.

American Financial Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KNSL	78 Outperform	$10.32B	23.11	29.98%	0.15%	21.51%	20.03%
SIGI	76 Outperform	$5.09B	13.68	12.19%	1.81%	12.27%	66.53%
THG	76 Outperform	$6.15B	11.31	19.23%	2.05%	4.47%	102.98%
RLI	74 Outperform	$5.48B	15.62	―	4.38%	3.72%	―
AFG	70 Outperform	$10.92B	14.37	17.17%	7.09%	3.35%	-14.16%
CNA	69 Neutral	$12.37B	14.20	8.54%	8.36%	6.12%	-31.43%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

American Financial Group Corporate Events

American Financial Group Issues $350M Senior Notes

On September 16, 2025, American Financial Group, Inc. entered into a Purchase Agreement with BofA Securities, Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC for the issuance and sale of $350 million in 5.000% Senior Notes due September 2035. This transaction is part of an underwritten public offering, and the Senior Notes will be issued under an indenture dated November 12, 1997, as supplemented by a Tenth Supplemental Indenture dated September 23, 2025. This move is expected to impact the company’s financial operations by providing additional capital, which may influence its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AFG) stock is a Buy with a $157.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Financial Group stock, see the AFG Stock Forecast page.

American Financial Group’s Mixed Q2 Earnings Call

The recent earnings call for American Financial Group (AFG) painted a mixed picture for investors. While the company showcased strong underwriting margins and a notable increase in net investment income, these positives were offset by lower core net operating earnings and challenges within alternative investments. Shareholder returns were commendable, yet the increased combined ratio in certain segments highlighted ongoing challenges.

American Financial Group Reports Q2 2025 Earnings

American Financial Group, Inc. is a Cincinnati-based insurance holding company primarily engaged in property and casualty insurance through its Great American Insurance Group, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses.