American Financial Group (AFG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.29B
• Dividend Yield: 6.85%
• Average Volume (3M): 430.58K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.53
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -10.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,700
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 2.69
• Shares Outstanding: 83,403,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 344,608
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 430,583
• PEG Ratio: 2.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.24
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.06
• 1Y Price Target: $137.50
• Price Target Upside: 1.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $159.00 ▲(17.45% Upside)

American Financial Group's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings performance and positive technical indicators. The attractive valuation further supports the stock's potential. However, caution is advised due to declining revenue and cash flow growth.

Positive Factors

Strong Return on Equity

A high return on equity indicates efficient use of shareholder funds, enhancing investor confidence and supporting long-term growth prospects.

Core Net Operating Earnings Growth

Consistent growth in core operating earnings reflects strong business fundamentals and effective cost management, supporting future profitability.

Improved Underwriting Profitability

Improved underwriting profitability indicates strong risk management and operational efficiency, enhancing the company's competitive position.

Negative Factors

Decline in Revenue Growth

Declining revenue growth can impact long-term financial health, limiting the company's ability to reinvest and expand its market presence.

Decreased Free Cash Flow Growth

Reduced free cash flow growth may constrain the company's ability to fund operations, invest in growth opportunities, or return capital to shareholders.

Increased Combined Ratio in Specialty and Casualty Group

An increased combined ratio suggests rising costs or claims, potentially pressuring profitability and requiring strategic adjustments.

American Financial Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States. It offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property and specialty transportation coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets, as well as customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers' compensation insurance; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance. The company sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers. American Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

American Financial Group generates revenue primarily through premiums collected from its property and casualty insurance operations, which account for a significant portion of its earnings. The company underwrites specialized insurance products and earns money by charging premiums that exceed the costs associated with claims and operating expenses. Additionally, AFG generates income from its annuity and life insurance segments, where it receives premiums and investment income from the policies it issues. Investment income from the company's substantial investment portfolio, which includes fixed income securities and equities, also constitutes a key revenue stream. AFG’s strategic partnerships with various agencies and brokers further enhance its market reach, while its disciplined underwriting practices help maintain profitability. Overall, the combination of insurance premiums, investment income, and prudent risk management contributes significantly to AFG's revenue model.

American Financial Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

American Financial Group shows stable financial performance with strong operational margins and a solid capital structure. However, the decline in revenue growth and free cash flow growth poses potential risks.

Income Statement

American Financial Group's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has experienced a decline in revenue growth rate, with a negative trend in the TTM period. However, the company maintains a solid EBIT and EBITDA margin, indicating operational efficiency. The net profit margin has slightly decreased, which suggests some pressure on profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity has slightly decreased but remains strong, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decrease in free cash flow growth, which could be a concern for future liquidity. However, the company maintains a strong free cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, supporting operational sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.22B	8.28B	7.73B	6.77B	6.23B	5.67B
Gross Profit	1.38B	1.47B	1.35B	1.20B	1.37B	301.00M
EBITDA	1.18B	1.28B	1.23B	1.31B	1.62B	726.00M
Net Income	798.00M	887.00M	852.00M	898.00M	2.00B	732.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	33.83B	30.84B	29.79B	28.83B	28.94B	73.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.59B	1.95B	11.60B	10.97B	12.49B	10.75B
Total Debt	1.82B	1.48B	1.48B	1.61B	1.96B	1.96B
Total Liabilities	29.10B	26.37B	25.53B	24.78B	23.93B	66.92B
Stockholders Equity	4.73B	4.47B	4.26B	4.05B	5.01B	6.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.42B	1.15B	1.90B	1.07B	1.56B	1.84B
Operating Cash Flow	1.42B	1.15B	1.97B	1.15B	1.71B	2.18B
Investing Cash Flow	-92.00M	95.00M	414.00M	-1.05B	-436.00M	-1.56B
Financing Cash Flow	-811.00M	-1.07B	-2.03B	-1.36B	-1.96B	-123.00M

American Financial Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 135.38
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 135.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 138.52, below the 50-day MA of 138.24, and above the 200-day MA of 128.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AFG.

American Financial Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RLI	81 Outperform	$5.70B	16.26	19.49%	4.26%	3.72%	-16.23%
CNA	79 Outperform	$12.00B	12.12	9.03%	8.31%	5.41%	-23.52%
SIGI	78 Outperform	$4.75B	12.10	12.22%	1.99%	10.98%	74.87%
THG	77 Outperform	$6.62B	10.74	20.02%	1.94%	5.26%	72.46%
KNSL	74 Outperform	$8.95B	18.92	28.73%	0.18%	18.13%	15.69%
AFG	73 Outperform	$11.29B	14.20	16.91%	6.85%	―	-10.75%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

American Financial Group Corporate Events

American Financial Group Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

American Financial Group, Inc. is an insurance holding company based in Cincinnati, Ohio, primarily engaged in property and casualty insurance through its Great American Insurance Group, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses.

American Financial Group’s Strong Q3 Earnings Call

American Financial Group’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust financial health, underscored by strong growth in core operating earnings and investment income. The company showcased its adept capital management strategies, highlighted by dividend increases. However, the call wasn’t without its challenges, as operational issues such as the timing of crop premium reporting and increased combined ratios in certain segments were noted.

American Financial Group Announces Strong Q3 Earnings

On November 4, 2025, American Financial Group, Inc. announced its third-quarter results, reporting net earnings of $215 million, or $2.58 per share, which included a $0.11 per share loss from non-core items. The company saw a 16% increase in core net operating earnings per share compared to the previous year, driven by higher underwriting profits and net investment income. Additionally, the Board of Directors declared a special one-time cash dividend of $2.00 per share, payable on November 26, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s strong financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AFG) stock is a Buy with a $144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Financial Group stock, see the AFG Stock Forecast page.

American Financial Group Issues $350M Senior Notes

On September 16, 2025, American Financial Group, Inc. entered into a Purchase Agreement with BofA Securities, Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC for the issuance and sale of $350 million in 5.000% Senior Notes due September 2035. This transaction is part of an underwritten public offering, and the Senior Notes will be issued under an indenture dated November 12, 1997, as supplemented by a Tenth Supplemental Indenture dated September 23, 2025. This move is expected to impact the company’s financial operations by providing additional capital, which may influence its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AFG) stock is a Buy with a $157.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Financial Group stock, see the AFG Stock Forecast page.