American Financial Group (AFG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.93B
• Dividend Yield: 6.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 457.77K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.53
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -10.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,700
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 2.69
• Shares Outstanding: 83,403,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 481,080
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 457,766
• PEG Ratio: 2.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.19
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.06
• 1Y Price Target: $137.50
• Price Target Upside: -3.42% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $149.00 ▲(4.66% Upside)

American Financial Group's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the most significant factors contributing to its score. The earnings call further supports this with positive growth in core earnings and investment income. However, technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, which slightly offsets the positive aspects.

American Financial Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States. It offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property and specialty transportation coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets, as well as customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers' compensation insurance; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance. The company sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers. American Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

American Financial Group generates revenue primarily through premiums collected from its property and casualty insurance operations, which account for a significant portion of its earnings. The company underwrites specialized insurance products and earns money by charging premiums that exceed the costs associated with claims and operating expenses. Additionally, AFG generates income from its annuity and life insurance segments, where it receives premiums and investment income from the policies it issues. Investment income from the company's substantial investment portfolio, which includes fixed income securities and equities, also constitutes a key revenue stream. AFG’s strategic partnerships with various agencies and brokers further enhance its market reach, while its disciplined underwriting practices help maintain profitability. Overall, the combination of insurance premiums, investment income, and prudent risk management contributes significantly to AFG's revenue model.

American Financial Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

American Financial Group demonstrates strong revenue growth and a stable balance sheet, but faces challenges in profitability and cash conversion. The company's financials reflect a solid foundation with opportunities for enhancing operational efficiency and cash flow management.

Income Statement

American Financial Group has shown strong revenue growth, particularly in the TTM period with a 46.1% increase. The gross profit margin remains healthy, although the net profit margin has slightly decreased in the TTM. The EBIT margin has turned negative in the TTM, indicating potential operational challenges. Overall, the income statement reflects strong revenue growth but with some profitability concerns.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33 in the TTM, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. The return on equity remains strong, although it has slightly decreased compared to previous years. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability with manageable leverage.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a positive free cash flow growth rate of 21.9% in the TTM, indicating improved cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting potential issues in converting income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, reflecting efficient cash management. Overall, the cash flow statement indicates good cash generation with some areas for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.25B	8.28B	7.73B	6.77B	6.23B	5.67B
Gross Profit	1.02B	1.47B	1.35B	1.20B	1.37B	301.00M
EBITDA	1.18B	1.28B	1.23B	1.31B	1.62B	726.00M
Net Income	798.00M	887.00M	852.00M	898.00M	2.00B	732.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	33.83B	30.84B	29.79B	28.83B	28.94B	73.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.84B	1.95B	1.75B	10.97B	12.49B	10.75B
Total Debt	1.82B	1.48B	1.67B	1.61B	1.96B	1.96B
Total Liabilities	29.10B	26.37B	25.53B	24.78B	23.93B	66.78B
Stockholders Equity	4.73B	4.47B	4.26B	4.05B	5.01B	6.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.42B	1.15B	1.90B	1.07B	1.56B	1.84B
Operating Cash Flow	1.42B	1.15B	1.97B	1.15B	1.71B	2.18B
Investing Cash Flow	-92.00M	95.00M	414.00M	-1.05B	-436.00M	-1.56B
Financing Cash Flow	-811.00M	-1.07B	-2.03B	-1.36B	-1.96B	-123.00M

American Financial Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 142.37
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 142.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 134.06, above the 50-day MA of 138.32, and above the 200-day MA of 128.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.45 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFG.

American Financial Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AFG	76 Outperform	$11.93B	15.00	16.91%	6.86%	―	-10.75%
THG	75 Outperform	$6.46B	10.49	20.02%	1.99%	5.26%	72.46%
RLI	74 Outperform	$5.67B	16.17	19.49%	4.21%	3.72%	-16.23%
SIGI	74 Outperform	$4.75B	12.10	12.22%	1.99%	10.98%	74.87%
KNSL	72 Outperform	$9.26B	19.57	28.73%	0.17%	18.13%	15.69%
CNA	69 Neutral	$12.00B	12.12	9.03%	8.57%	5.41%	-23.52%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

American Financial Group Corporate Events

American Financial Group Announces Strong Q3 Earnings

On November 4, 2025, American Financial Group, Inc. announced its third-quarter results, reporting net earnings of $215 million, or $2.58 per share, which included a $0.11 per share loss from non-core items. The company saw a 16% increase in core net operating earnings per share compared to the previous year, driven by higher underwriting profits and net investment income. Additionally, the Board of Directors declared a special one-time cash dividend of $2.00 per share, payable on November 26, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s strong financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AFG) stock is a Buy with a $144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Financial Group stock, see the AFG Stock Forecast page.

American Financial Group Issues $350M Senior Notes

On September 16, 2025, American Financial Group, Inc. entered into a Purchase Agreement with BofA Securities, Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC for the issuance and sale of $350 million in 5.000% Senior Notes due September 2035. This transaction is part of an underwritten public offering, and the Senior Notes will be issued under an indenture dated November 12, 1997, as supplemented by a Tenth Supplemental Indenture dated September 23, 2025. This move is expected to impact the company’s financial operations by providing additional capital, which may influence its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AFG) stock is a Buy with a $157.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Financial Group stock, see the AFG Stock Forecast page.

American Financial Group’s Mixed Q2 Earnings Call

The recent earnings call for American Financial Group (AFG) painted a mixed picture for investors. While the company showcased strong underwriting margins and a notable increase in net investment income, these positives were offset by lower core net operating earnings and challenges within alternative investments. Shareholder returns were commendable, yet the increased combined ratio in certain segments highlighted ongoing challenges.

American Financial Group Reports Q2 2025 Earnings

American Financial Group, Inc. is a Cincinnati-based insurance holding company primarily engaged in property and casualty insurance through its Great American Insurance Group, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses.