American Financial Group (AFG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.51B
• Dividend Yield: 6.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 431.95K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -10.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,700
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 2.69
• Shares Outstanding: 83,403,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 412,518
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 431,950
• PEG Ratio: 2.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.37
• 1Y Price Target: $137.50
• Price Target Upside: -0.32% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $144.00 ▲(4.39% Upside)

American Financial Group's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings performance and attractive valuation, offset by bearish technical indicators. The company's robust dividend yield and strategic capital management are significant positives, while the decline in revenue and cash flow growth are areas of concern.

Positive Factors

Strong Return on Equity

A high return on equity indicates efficient use of shareholder funds and strong profitability, enhancing long-term investor confidence.

Core Net Operating Earnings Growth

Growth in core net operating earnings reflects operational efficiency and a strong business model, supporting sustained profitability.

Improved Underwriting Profitability

Enhanced underwriting profitability indicates effective risk management and pricing strategy, bolstering long-term financial stability.

Negative Factors

Decline in Revenue Growth

A declining revenue growth trend may signal challenges in market expansion or product competitiveness, impacting future earnings potential.

Decrease in Free Cash Flow Growth

Reduced free cash flow growth can limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage financial obligations.

Increased Combined Ratio in Specialty and Casualty Group

An increased combined ratio suggests rising costs or pricing pressures, potentially eroding profitability in key business segments.

American Financial Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States. It offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property and specialty transportation coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets, as well as customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers' compensation insurance; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance. The company sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers. American Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

American Financial Group generates revenue primarily through premiums collected from its property and casualty insurance operations, which account for a significant portion of its earnings. The company underwrites specialized insurance products and earns money by charging premiums that exceed the costs associated with claims and operating expenses. Additionally, AFG generates income from its annuity and life insurance segments, where it receives premiums and investment income from the policies it issues. Investment income from the company's substantial investment portfolio, which includes fixed income securities and equities, also constitutes a key revenue stream. AFG’s strategic partnerships with various agencies and brokers further enhance its market reach, while its disciplined underwriting practices help maintain profitability. Overall, the combination of insurance premiums, investment income, and prudent risk management contributes significantly to AFG's revenue model.

American Financial Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

American Financial Group demonstrates stable financial performance with strong operational margins and a solid capital structure. However, the decline in revenue growth and free cash flow growth poses potential risks that need to be monitored.

Income Statement

American Financial Group's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has experienced a decline in revenue growth rate, with a negative trend in the TTM period. However, the company maintains a solid EBIT and EBITDA margin, indicating operational efficiency. The net profit margin has slightly decreased, which suggests some pressure on profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity has slightly decreased but remains strong, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decrease in free cash flow growth, which could be a concern for future liquidity. However, the company maintains a strong free cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, supporting operational sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.22B	8.28B	7.73B	6.77B	6.23B	5.67B
Gross Profit	1.38B	1.47B	1.35B	1.20B	1.37B	301.00M
EBITDA	1.18B	1.28B	1.23B	1.31B	1.62B	726.00M
Net Income	798.00M	887.00M	852.00M	898.00M	2.00B	732.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	33.83B	30.84B	29.79B	28.83B	28.94B	73.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.59B	1.95B	11.60B	10.97B	12.49B	10.75B
Total Debt	1.82B	1.48B	1.48B	1.61B	1.96B	1.96B
Total Liabilities	29.10B	26.37B	25.53B	24.78B	23.93B	66.92B
Stockholders Equity	4.73B	4.47B	4.26B	4.05B	5.01B	6.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.42B	1.15B	1.90B	1.07B	1.56B	1.84B
Operating Cash Flow	1.42B	1.15B	1.97B	1.15B	1.71B	2.18B
Investing Cash Flow	-92.00M	95.00M	414.00M	-1.05B	-436.00M	-1.56B
Financing Cash Flow	-811.00M	-1.07B	-2.03B	-1.36B	-1.96B	-123.00M

American Financial Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 137.94
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 137.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 135.52, above the 50-day MA of 135.99, and above the 200-day MA of 129.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.88 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFG.

American Financial Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RLI	83 Outperform	$6.07B	17.30	19.49%	3.98%	3.72%	-16.23%
CNA	79 Outperform	$12.89B	13.01	9.03%	8.03%	5.41%	-23.52%
THG	77 Outperform	$6.57B	10.67	20.02%	1.98%	5.26%	72.46%
SIGI	77 Outperform	$5.08B	12.96	12.22%	1.87%	10.98%	74.87%
KNSL	75 Outperform	$8.79B	18.58	28.73%	0.18%	18.13%	15.69%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
AFG	67 Neutral	$11.51B	14.47	16.91%	6.73%	―	-10.75%

American Financial Group Corporate Events

American Financial Group Announces New Share Buyback Program

On December 3, 2025, American Financial Group, Inc. announced a new share repurchase program allowing the buyback of up to 5,000,000 shares of its common stock. This initiative, set to replace the existing program expiring after December 31, 2025, will run until December 31, 2030, and aims to provide the company with flexibility in managing its capital structure based on market and business conditions.

American Financial Group Announces Strong Q3 Earnings

On November 4, 2025, American Financial Group, Inc. announced its third-quarter results, reporting net earnings of $215 million, or $2.58 per share, which included a $0.11 per share loss from non-core items. The company saw a 16% increase in core net operating earnings per share compared to the previous year, driven by higher underwriting profits and net investment income. Additionally, the Board of Directors declared a special one-time cash dividend of $2.00 per share, payable on November 26, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s strong financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

American Financial Group Issues $350M Senior Notes

On September 16, 2025, American Financial Group, Inc. entered into a Purchase Agreement with BofA Securities, Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC for the issuance and sale of $350 million in 5.000% Senior Notes due September 2035. This transaction is part of an underwritten public offering, and the Senior Notes will be issued under an indenture dated November 12, 1997, as supplemented by a Tenth Supplemental Indenture dated September 23, 2025. This move is expected to impact the company’s financial operations by providing additional capital, which may influence its market positioning and stakeholder interests.