American Financial Group (AFG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.10B
• Dividend Yield: 6.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 468.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: 3.35%
• EPS Growth: -14.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,700
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 69
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 2.14
• Shares Outstanding: 83,394,480
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 403,850
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 468,945
• PEG Ratio: 2.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.39
• 1Y Price Target: $130.00
• Price Target Upside: -3.42% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $142.00 ▲(5.49% Upside)

American Financial Group's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and attractive valuation, supported by consistent revenue growth and a high dividend yield. However, technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook, and mixed results from the earnings call highlight areas of concern, such as declining core net operating earnings and challenges in alternative investments.

American Financial Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

American Financial Group (AFG) is a diversified financial services holding company based in Cincinnati, Ohio, primarily engaged in the property and casualty insurance sector. The company operates through two main segments: Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance, which includes a wide range of insurance products tailored for niche markets, and Annuity and Life Insurance, offering fixed and variable annuities, as well as life insurance products. AFG focuses on providing comprehensive risk management solutions and long-term savings products to both individuals and businesses.

How the Company Makes Money

American Financial Group generates revenue primarily through its insurance underwriting operations, where it earns premiums from policyholders in its specialty property and casualty insurance segment. The company also collects investment income from its sizable investment portfolio, which includes bonds, stocks, and real estate investments. Additionally, AFG earns fees and commissions from the sale of annuities and life insurance products. Key revenue streams include the underwriting profit from insurance premiums minus claims and expenses, as well as returns from invested assets. The company's strategic partnerships with various distribution channels, including independent agents and brokers, further enhance its market reach and revenue generation capabilities.

American Financial Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

American Financial Group shows strong revenue growth and effective cash flow management. However, recent declines in operational efficiency and free cash flow suggest areas of concern. The balance sheet remains stable with conservative debt usage and effective equity utilization.

Income Statement

American Financial Group shows a solid growth trajectory with a consistent increase in total revenue from $6.55 billion in 2021 to $8.32 billion in 2024. The net profit margin has improved over the years, reaching 10.65% in 2024. However, the decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins in 2024 indicates a possible challenge in maintaining operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is stable with a healthy debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33 in 2024, reflecting a conservative leverage position. The equity ratio has slightly decreased over time, reaching 14.48% in 2024, indicating moderate reliance on liabilities. Return on equity is strong at 19.86%, showcasing effective use of shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

American Financial Group maintains a robust cash flow position with significant operating cash flow of $1.15 billion in 2024. The free cash flow remains strong, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.30, indicating effective cash generation from operations. However, a declining trend in free cash flow compared to previous years suggests potential challenges in maintaining cash generation levels.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.26B	8.28B	7.73B	6.77B	6.23B	5.65B
Gross Profit	3.14B	3.82B	7.73B	6.81B	6.39B	5.58B
EBITDA	1.18B	1.28B	1.23B	1.31B	1.62B	726.00M
Net Income	799.00M	887.00M	852.00M	898.00M	1.08B	732.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	30.29B	30.84B	29.79B	28.83B	28.94B	73.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.98B	1.95B	1.75B	10.97B	12.49B	10.75B
Total Debt	1.48B	1.48B	1.48B	1.50B	1.96B	1.96B
Total Liabilities	25.90B	26.37B	25.53B	24.78B	23.93B	66.78B
Stockholders Equity	4.39B	4.47B	4.26B	4.05B	5.01B	6.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.43B	1.15B	1.97B	1.07B	1.56B	1.84B
Operating Cash Flow	1.39B	1.15B	1.97B	1.15B	1.71B	2.18B
Investing Cash Flow	273.00M	95.00M	414.00M	-1.05B	-436.00M	-1.56B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.47B	-1.07B	-2.03B	-1.36B	-1.96B	-123.00M

American Financial Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 134.61
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 134.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 128.88, above the 50-day MA of 126.71, and above the 200-day MA of 127.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFG.

American Financial Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
THG	81 Outperform	$6.23B	11.46	19.23%	2.02%	4.47%	102.98%
KNSL	79 Outperform	$10.76B	24.11	29.98%	0.14%	21.51%	20.03%
RLI	76 Outperform	$6.23B	19.41	19.49%	3.79%	10.29%	-4.70%
AFG	73 Outperform	$11.10B	14.60	17.17%	6.83%	3.35%	-14.16%
AXS	72 Outperform	$7.54B	9.15	15.07%	1.77%	6.87%	43.53%
CNA	68 Neutral	$13.35B	15.32	8.54%	7.74%	6.12%	-31.43%
Sector *	62 Neutral	AU$10.71B	11.73	12.99%	5.01%	32.06%	59.28%

American Financial Group Corporate Events

American Financial Group Halts Charleston Resort Sale Plans

On June 6, 2025, American Financial Group announced the termination of agreements to sell the Charleston Harbor Resort & Marina, a premier property in Charleston, South Carolina. The company will continue to explore strategic alternatives for the resort, which includes two hotels, a marina, and other amenities. This decision could impact AFG’s operations and market positioning as they reassess their strategy for this asset.

The most recent analyst rating on (AFG) stock is a Hold with a $135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Financial Group stock, see the AFG Stock Forecast page.

American Financial Group Approves Stock Plan Amendment

On May 22, 2025, American Financial Group‘s shareholders approved an amendment to the 2015 Stock Incentive Plan at the annual meeting. The amendment allows non-employee directors to receive equity as part of their compensation. The meeting also included the election of 12 directors, ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor, and approval of executive compensation.

The most recent analyst rating on (AFG) stock is a Hold with a $135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on American Financial Group stock, see the AFG Stock Forecast page.