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Knife River Corporation (KNF)
:KNF
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Knife River Corporation (KNF) AI Stock Analysis

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Knife River Corporation

(NYSE:KNF)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$88.00
▲(11.65%Upside)
Knife River Corporation's strong financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are the main strengths, driving the overall score. However, technical analysis indicates bearish short-term momentum, and valuation metrics suggest moderate appeal.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Management believes that the balance of the year will generate approximately 90% of annual revenue and 108% of annual EBITDA, indicating strong future performance.
Mergers and Acquisitions
The company is an acquirer of choice for many aggregate-led construction materials targets.
Negative Factors
Project Delays
With spring weather slow to arrive and Oregon delaying some projects, it sounds like Q2 results could be impacted.
Seasonality Impacts
Knife River Corporation's Q1 EBITDA loss was larger than expected due to seasonality impacts in colder-weather states, affecting construction project timelines.

Knife River Corporation (KNF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Knife River Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKnife River Corporation (KNF) is a leading provider in the construction materials and contracting services industry. The company operates primarily in the United States, focusing on producing and delivering aggregate, asphalt, ready-mix concrete, and other related construction materials. Knife River serves a diverse range of sectors, including residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure construction, with a strong commitment to sustainability and quality.
How the Company Makes MoneyKnife River Corporation generates revenue through the sale of construction materials such as aggregate, asphalt, and ready-mix concrete. The company operates quarries and production facilities to extract and process raw materials, which are then sold to contractors and other businesses involved in construction projects. Additionally, Knife River offers contracting services, providing expertise in infrastructure development, paving, and site preparation. This dual approach allows the company to capitalize on both material sales and service contracts. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with governmental agencies for public infrastructure projects, as well as partnerships with private construction firms for commercial and residential developments. Regional demand for construction and infrastructure development significantly influences its earnings.

Knife River Corporation Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -18.67%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call indicates a strong positive outlook with record financial expectations and successful acquisitions. However, challenges such as seasonal losses, private market slowdowns, and increased SG&A expenses are noted. The commitment to public infrastructure projects and organic growth initiatives paints a positive long-term picture.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Financial Guidance
Knife River is forecasting record revenue, net income, and adjusted EBITDA for the year, with consolidated revenue expectations between $3.25 billion and $3.45 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $530 million and $580 million.
Acquisition Program in Full Swing
Closed on Strata Corporation and Kalama Quarry, with additional deals in the pipeline. The acquisitions are expected to positively impact financial results starting in the second quarter.
Strong Public Infrastructure Backdrop
Public projects represent 87% of the backlog, with increased funding in several states, including a $3 billion fuel tax in Washington and over $1 billion in Idaho.
Organic Growth and EDGE Initiatives
Continued build-out of significant projects, such as the aggregates expansion in South Dakota and a new asphalt plant in Sioux Falls. The EDGE strategy focuses on driving excellence and long-term growth.
Increased Bidding Activity
Increased bidding activity compared to last year, securing public projects including three jobs totaling $170 million.
Negative Updates
Seasonal Loss in First Quarter
Knife River experienced an 8% seasonal loss in the first quarter, which is reflective of the company's unique footprint in Northern States.
Private Market Slowdown
Some private projects are being delayed due to economic uncertainties, impacting aggregates and ready-mix volumes, particularly in Oregon and Montana.
Increased SG&A Expenses
SG&A expenses increased by $13 million over the prior year, largely due to acquisition-related costs and business development activities.
Company Guidance
During the Knife River Corporation's first quarter 2025 results conference call, the company provided guidance indicating expectations for a record year with projected revenue between $3.25 billion and $3.45 billion and adjusted EBITDA ranging from $530 million to $580 million. The first quarter showed an 8% seasonal loss, reflective of the acquisition of Strata, which is expected to contribute positively in the second quarter. The company also highlighted a step-up in SG&A expenses, with $13 million reported for the quarter, primarily due to acquisitions and business development. Additionally, Knife River forecasts high single-digit increases in aggregate volumes and ready-mix volumes for the full year, supported by strategic investments and a robust backlog, particularly in public projects, which represent 87% of the backlog. The call also noted the company's efforts in integrating recent acquisitions and its focus on operational improvements and dynamic pricing to drive margin growth.

Knife River Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Knife River Corporation demonstrates strong financial performance, with consistent revenue growth and effective cost management. The balance sheet is stable, but increasing debt levels need monitoring. Cash flows are well-managed, supporting operations, despite some fluctuations.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Knife River Corporation demonstrates strong financial performance with a consistent revenue growth trend, reflected by a 16% increase from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin and EBIT margin are solid, indicating effective cost management. However, there is a slight decline in net profit margin compared to the previous year, which suggests rising operational costs or other expenses.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The company's balance sheet is stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which suggests a balanced use of debt and equity financing. The equity ratio is healthy, indicating a strong equity position relative to total assets. However, the increasing debt levels over the years pose a potential risk that needs to be monitored.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals robust operating cash flows, consistently covering capital expenditures, reflecting good cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating that the company generates sufficient cash to cover net income. However, fluctuations in free cash flow growth highlight potential volatility in cash management.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.90B2.83B2.53B2.23B2.18B
Gross Profit569.83M538.93M347.27M346.95M370.58M
EBITDA463.11M427.09M310.81M290.90M302.46M
Net Income201.68M182.87M72.92M129.75M147.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.85B2.60B2.51B2.18B0.00
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments281.13M262.32M221.29M13.85M0.00
Total Debt726.76M726.37M925.29M734.52M0.00
Total Liabilities1.38B1.33B1.48B1.23B0.00
Stockholders Equity1.48B1.27B1.03B952.84M0.00
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow149.90M211.44M29.28M7.01M96.53M
Operating Cash Flow322.32M335.73M207.44M181.24M232.40M
Investing Cash Flow-294.80M-117.89M-155.88M-398.27M-185.85M
Financing Cash Flow-8.71M34.39M-55.32M223.80M-47.95M

Knife River Corporation Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price78.82
Price Trends
50DMA
88.97
Negative
100DMA
90.29
Negative
200DMA
94.50
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.66
Negative
RSI
36.06
Neutral
STOCH
15.65
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KNF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 78.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.59, below the 50-day MA of 88.97, and below the 200-day MA of 94.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.65 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KNF.

Knife River Corporation Risk Analysis

Knife River Corporation disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Knife River Corporation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We operate in a capital-intensive industry and are subject to capital market and interest rate risks. Q4, 2024
2.
Despite our current level of indebtedness, we may be able to incur substantially more debt, which could increase the risks to our financial condition described above. Q4, 2024
3.
The incurrence by us of substantial indebtedness in connection with the financing of the Acquisition may have an adverse impact on our liquidity, limit our flexibility in responding to other business opportunities, and increase our vulnerability to adverse economic and industry conditions. Q4, 2024

Knife River Corporation Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
EXEXP
78
Outperform
$7.20B16.0233.52%0.45%0.05%0.96%
VMVMC
78
Outperform
$35.66B38.2712.10%0.73%-2.24%3.00%
CXCX
72
Outperform
$11.14B7.656.58%1.21%-8.41%570.14%
MLMLM
69
Neutral
$34.05B32.4811.88%0.56%-0.54%-48.61%
BCBCC
69
Neutral
$3.37B11.1914.26%0.94%-4.67%-35.04%
KNKNF
68
Neutral
$4.47B24.3913.76%2.48%2.22%
44
Neutral
AU$1.44B-5.92-40.74%3.88%-3.45%-41.77%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KNF
Knife River Corporation
77.38
1.50
1.98%
CX
Cemex SAB
7.27
0.89
13.95%
EXP
Eagle Materials
213.58
-16.05
-6.99%
MLM
Martin Marietta Materials
546.36
-14.68
-2.62%
VMC
Vulcan Materials
261.56
7.70
3.03%
BCC
Boise Cascade
86.25
-41.59
-32.53%

Knife River Corporation Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Knife River Corporation Holds Annual Meeting with Key Approvals
Neutral
May 28, 2025

On May 22, 2025, Knife River Corporation held its Annual Meeting where four proposals were presented to stockholders. All company nominees for Class II directors were elected, the compensation for named executive officers was approved, Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025, and an amendment to eliminate supermajority voting requirements was passed.

The most recent analyst rating on (KNF) stock is a Buy with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Knife River Corporation stock, see the KNF Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Knife River Corporation Announces Q1 2025 Earnings
Neutral
May 6, 2025

On May 6, 2025, Knife River Corporation announced its first quarter 2025 earnings. The announcement may impact the company’s operations and industry positioning, but specific implications for stakeholders were not detailed in the release.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 14, 2025