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Knife River Corporation (KNF)
NYSE:KNF
US Market

Knife River Corporation (KNF) AI Stock Analysis

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Knife River Corporation

(NYSE:KNF)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$88.00
▲(6.61%Upside)
Knife River Corporation's strong financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are the main strengths, driving the overall score. However, technical analysis indicates bearish short-term momentum, and valuation metrics suggest moderate appeal.
Positive Factors
Acquisitions
The full-year EBITDA guidance was raised significantly due to the recent Strata acquisition, indicating strong expected financial performance.
Market Demand
Key factors attracting interest in Knife River Corporation shares include localized production, strong end-market demand with federal funding, and high barriers to entry with opportunities for growth through acquisitions.
Public Funding and Infrastructure
The construction season is ramping up, and many public budgets are at or near record levels, which supports a positive outlook for Knife River Corporation.
Negative Factors
Funding Delays
Oregon headwind. Largely owing to funding delays and, to a lesser extent, market uncertainty, there have been some delayed construction projects that are expected to have an impact on '25 results.
Project Delays
There have been some slowdowns and project delays on the private side of the business given tariff and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Seasonal Impact
Knife River Corporation's Q1 EBITDA loss was larger than expected due to seasonality impacts in colder-weather states, affecting construction project timelines.

Knife River Corporation (KNF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Knife River Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKnife River Corporation (KNF) is a leading construction materials and contracting services company in the United States. The company operates in several sectors, including aggregates, asphalt, ready-mix concrete, and construction services. With a strong presence across multiple states, Knife River provides essential materials and services for public and private infrastructure projects, contributing to the development and maintenance of roads, bridges, commercial buildings, and residential properties.
How the Company Makes MoneyKnife River Corporation generates revenue through the production and sale of construction materials such as aggregates, asphalt, and ready-mix concrete. These materials are supplied to a wide range of construction projects, including infrastructure development, commercial construction, and residential projects. The company also offers contracting services, where it undertakes construction projects directly, managing the construction process from start to finish. Key revenue streams include the sale of materials to third-party contractors and direct revenues from contracting services. Significant partnerships with government agencies and private sector clients contribute to the company's earnings, allowing it to secure large-scale projects and maintain a steady flow of income.

Knife River Corporation Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -14.83%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call indicates a strong positive outlook with record financial expectations and successful acquisitions. However, challenges such as seasonal losses, private market slowdowns, and increased SG&A expenses are noted. The commitment to public infrastructure projects and organic growth initiatives paints a positive long-term picture.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Financial Guidance
Knife River is forecasting record revenue, net income, and adjusted EBITDA for the year, with consolidated revenue expectations between $3.25 billion and $3.45 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $530 million and $580 million.
Acquisition Program in Full Swing
Closed on Strata Corporation and Kalama Quarry, with additional deals in the pipeline. The acquisitions are expected to positively impact financial results starting in the second quarter.
Strong Public Infrastructure Backdrop
Public projects represent 87% of the backlog, with increased funding in several states, including a $3 billion fuel tax in Washington and over $1 billion in Idaho.
Organic Growth and EDGE Initiatives
Continued build-out of significant projects, such as the aggregates expansion in South Dakota and a new asphalt plant in Sioux Falls. The EDGE strategy focuses on driving excellence and long-term growth.
Increased Bidding Activity
Increased bidding activity compared to last year, securing public projects including three jobs totaling $170 million.
Negative Updates
Seasonal Loss in First Quarter
Knife River experienced an 8% seasonal loss in the first quarter, which is reflective of the company's unique footprint in Northern States.
Private Market Slowdown
Some private projects are being delayed due to economic uncertainties, impacting aggregates and ready-mix volumes, particularly in Oregon and Montana.
Increased SG&A Expenses
SG&A expenses increased by $13 million over the prior year, largely due to acquisition-related costs and business development activities.
Company Guidance
During the Knife River Corporation's first quarter 2025 results conference call, the company provided guidance indicating expectations for a record year with projected revenue between $3.25 billion and $3.45 billion and adjusted EBITDA ranging from $530 million to $580 million. The first quarter showed an 8% seasonal loss, reflective of the acquisition of Strata, which is expected to contribute positively in the second quarter. The company also highlighted a step-up in SG&A expenses, with $13 million reported for the quarter, primarily due to acquisitions and business development. Additionally, Knife River forecasts high single-digit increases in aggregate volumes and ready-mix volumes for the full year, supported by strategic investments and a robust backlog, particularly in public projects, which represent 87% of the backlog. The call also noted the company's efforts in integrating recent acquisitions and its focus on operational improvements and dynamic pricing to drive margin growth.

Knife River Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Knife River Corporation demonstrates a strong financial position with consistent revenue growth and effective cost management. The balance sheet reflects a healthy equity position, although increasing debt levels should be monitored. Cash flows are managed well, supporting operational and capital needs, despite some fluctuations.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Knife River Corporation demonstrates strong financial performance with a consistent revenue growth trend, reflected by a 16% increase from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin and EBIT margin are solid, indicating effective cost management. However, there is a slight decline in net profit margin compared to the previous year, which suggests rising operational costs or other expenses.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The company's balance sheet is stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which suggests a balanced use of debt and equity financing. The equity ratio is healthy, indicating a strong equity position relative to total assets. However, the increasing debt levels over the years pose a potential risk that needs to be monitored.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals robust operating cash flows, consistently covering capital expenditures, reflecting good cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating that the company generates sufficient cash to cover net income. However, fluctuations in free cash flow growth highlight potential volatility in cash management.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.92B2.90B2.83B2.53B2.23B2.18B
Gross Profit
553.74M569.83M538.93M347.27M346.95M370.58M
EBIT
287.27M316.19M296.40M164.55M191.08M214.50M
EBITDA
440.85M463.11M427.09M310.81M290.90M302.46M
Net Income Common Stockholders
180.60M201.68M182.87M72.92M129.75M147.32M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
86.12M281.13M262.32M221.29M13.85M0.00
Total Assets
3.28B2.85B2.60B2.51B2.18B0.00
Total Debt
1.22B726.76M726.37M925.29M734.52M0.00
Net Debt
1.13B445.63M464.05M704.00M720.67M0.00
Total Liabilities
1.87B1.38B1.33B1.48B1.23B0.00
Stockholders Equity
1.41B1.48B1.27B1.03B952.84M0.00
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
36.56M149.90M211.44M29.28M7.01M96.53M
Operating Cash Flow
240.26M322.32M335.73M207.44M181.24M232.40M
Investing Cash Flow
-753.37M-294.80M-117.89M-155.88M-398.27M-185.85M
Financing Cash Flow
480.93M-8.71M34.39M-55.32M223.80M-47.95M

Knife River Corporation Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price82.54
Price Trends
50DMA
92.68
Negative
100DMA
94.23
Negative
200DMA
94.66
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.43
Positive
RSI
31.42
Neutral
STOCH
11.34
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KNF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 82.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 91.58, below the 50-day MA of 92.68, and below the 200-day MA of 94.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KNF.

Knife River Corporation Risk Analysis

Knife River Corporation disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Knife River Corporation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We operate in a capital-intensive industry and are subject to capital market and interest rate risks. Q4, 2024
2.
Despite our current level of indebtedness, we may be able to incur substantially more debt, which could increase the risks to our financial condition described above. Q4, 2024
3.
The incurrence by us of substantial indebtedness in connection with the financing of the Acquisition may have an adverse impact on our liquidity, limit our flexibility in responding to other business opportunities, and increase our vulnerability to adverse economic and industry conditions. Q4, 2024

Knife River Corporation Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
VMVMC
78
Outperform
$34.50B37.0312.10%0.75%-2.24%3.00%
EXEXP
76
Outperform
$6.45B14.3233.52%0.51%0.05%0.96%
MLMLM
75
Outperform
$32.72B31.2111.88%0.58%-0.54%-48.61%
CXCX
72
Outperform
$10.38B7.156.58%1.30%-8.41%570.14%
KNKNF
68
Neutral
$4.68B26.0213.76%2.48%2.22%
BCBCC
65
Neutral
$3.23B10.7314.26%0.98%-4.67%-35.04%
51
Neutral
$2.03B-1.27-21.09%4.14%2.90%-30.49%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KNF
Knife River Corporation
80.45
9.00
12.60%
CX
Cemex SAB
6.81
0.42
6.57%
EXP
Eagle Materials
193.68
-33.83
-14.87%
MLM
Martin Marietta Materials
541.39
-13.96
-2.51%
VMC
Vulcan Materials
259.04
5.37
2.12%
BCC
Boise Cascade
84.06
-36.68
-30.38%

Knife River Corporation Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Knife River Corporation Holds Annual Meeting with Key Approvals
Neutral
May 28, 2025

On May 22, 2025, Knife River Corporation held its Annual Meeting where four proposals were presented to stockholders. All company nominees for Class II directors were elected, the compensation for named executive officers was approved, Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025, and an amendment to eliminate supermajority voting requirements was passed.

The most recent analyst rating on (KNF) stock is a Buy with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Knife River Corporation stock, see the KNF Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Knife River Corporation Announces Q1 2025 Earnings
Neutral
May 6, 2025

On May 6, 2025, Knife River Corporation announced its first quarter 2025 earnings. The announcement may impact the company’s operations and industry positioning, but specific implications for stakeholders were not detailed in the release.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.