Knife River Corporation (KNF)
NYSE:KNF
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Knife River Corporation
(NYSE:KNF)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$80.00
▼(-4.83% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven by mixed fundamentals: solid growth and a constructive 2026 outlook/backlog, but offset by weakened 2025 cash generation (negative free cash flow) and softer margins with rising leverage. Technical trends are supportive, while valuation appears demanding given the P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Record backlog and public-work visibility
A $1.0B backlog with ~90% public work materially raises near-term revenue visibility and reduces exposure to residential cyclicality. With ~75% expected to convert in 2026, this backlog supports predictable utilization, planning for reserves and crews, and steadier cash flows across the construction season.
Negative Factors
Weakened cash generation and negative FCF
A swing to negative free cash flow reduces internal funding for growth and capital maintenance, increasing reliance on debt or revolver draws. Over several quarters this can pressure liquidity cushions, constrain optional investments, and force higher-cost financing or slower deleveraging despite healthy operating metrics.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record backlog and public-work visibility
A $1.0B backlog with ~90% public work materially raises near-term revenue visibility and reduces exposure to residential cyclicality. With ~75% expected to convert in 2026, this backlog supports predictable utilization, planning for reserves and crews, and steadier cash flows across the construction season.
Read all positive factors
Knife River Corporation (KNF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.76B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)672.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.4
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth5.52%
EPS Growth-25.56%
CountryUS
Employees4,761
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryConstruction Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.56
Shares Outstanding56,664,165
10 Day Avg. Volume775,224
30 Day Avg. Volume672,375
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.14
Price to Book (P/B)2.43
Price to Sales (P/S)1.27
P/FCF Ratio-57.31
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.18
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.06
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$98.38Price Target Upside17.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)3.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.40B
Knife River Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Knife River Corporation provides aggregates-based construction materials and contracting services in the United States. It operates through six segments: Pacific, Northwest, Mountain, North Central, South, and Energy Services. The company mines, p...
How the Company Makes Money
Knife River makes money primarily by selling construction materials and by providing construction-related services, generally to public-sector infrastructure customers and private-sector builders and developers. Key revenue streams typically inclu...
Knife River Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call communicated clear progress on strategic priorities with multiple operating and financial improvements: record backlog (+38%), stronger Q4 performance (Q4 adjusted EBITDA +47%, gross margin ~19%), successful M&A execution and substantial capital investment (~$789M), and continued margin expansion efforts (dynamic pricing, pit crew initiatives). Offsetting items include regional softness (notably Oregon), near-term contracting services margin pressure, higher SG&A tied to growth/M&A, weather-driven seasonality and some non‑recurring gains in 2025. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (revenue $3.3B–$3.5B; adjusted EBITDA $520M–$560M) and emphasized a strong balance sheet and ample liquidity to drive further growth. Taken together, the positive operational momentum, backlog strength, margin improvement initiatives and healthy balance sheet outweigh the challenges highlighted, suggesting a constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Record Backlog and Strong Visibility
Record backlog of $1,000,000,000 entering 2026, a 38% increase year-over-year; ~90% public work and ~75% of backlog expected to be completed in 2026, with more asphalt paving in backlog than performed in all of 2025.
Negative Updates
Geographic Mixed Performance — Oregon Softness
Oregon underperformed relative to other regions; backlog and activity are down in Oregon despite DOT budget being roughly flat. Management expects 2026 Oregon performance to be broadly in line with 2025, but the region is a headwind to higher-margin West results.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Backlog and Strong Visibility
Record backlog of $1,000,000,000 entering 2026, a 38% increase year-over-year; ~90% public work and ~75% of backlog expected to be completed in 2026, with more asphalt paving in backlog than performed in all of 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Knife River guided 2026 consolidated revenue of $3.3–$3.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $520–$560 million (implying roughly a 16% adjusted EBITDA margin at the midpoint), assuming normal weather, economic and operating conditions; product-line expectations include aggregates volumes up mid-single digits, aggregates pricing up mid-single digits and ~200 bps of aggregates margin expansion, ready-mix volumes up mid-teens, asphalt volumes up mid-single digits (margins roughly comparable to prior year) and contracting services gross margin expected to improve as more asphalt is self‑performed. Key backlog, capital and liquidity metrics: record backlog ≈$1.0 billion (+38% YoY) with ~90% public work and ~75% expected to be completed in 2026; 2025 investments totaled $789 million with $170 million of maintenance capex (~6% of revenue); 2026 maintenance/improvement capex expected to remain ~5–7% of revenue, reserve/organic additions ≈$131 million, ~$75 million unrestricted cash, ≈$475 million available on the revolver, net leverage 2.2x (below a 2.5x target) and expected cash flow from operations of about two‑thirds of EBITDA.Knife River Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.15B | 2.90B | 2.83B | 2.53B | 2.23B |
| Gross Profit | 577.30M | 569.83M | 538.93M | 360.89M | 346.95M |
| EBITDA | 488.80M | 463.11M | 427.21M | 306.74M | 293.41M |
| Net Income | 157.10M | 201.68M | 182.87M | 116.22M | 129.75M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.65B | 2.85B | 2.60B | 2.29B | 2.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 123.40M | 281.13M | 262.32M | 10.09M | 13.85M |
| Total Debt | 1.25B | 726.76M | 726.37M | 730.96M | 734.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.01B | 1.38B | 1.33B | 1.27B | 1.23B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.64B | 1.48B | 1.27B | 1.03B | 952.84M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -69.60M | 149.90M | 211.44M | 29.28M | 7.01M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 278.50M | 322.32M | 335.73M | 207.44M | 181.24M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -913.70M | -294.80M | -117.89M | -155.88M | -398.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 477.50M | -8.71M | 34.39M | -55.32M | 223.80M |
Knife River Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
84.06
Price Trends
82.00
Positive
78.19
Positive
77.61
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.30
Negative
53.73
Neutral
80.22
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KNF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 84.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 81.52, above the 50-day MA of 82.00, and above the 200-day MA of 77.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KNF.
Knife River Corporation Risk Analysis
Knife River Corporation disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Knife River Corporation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Knife River Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $3.92B | 28.06 | 23.07% | 0.19% | 20.27% | 31.94% | |
73 Outperform | $18.05B | 1.73 | 10.45% | 0.74% | -6.34% | 210.97% | |
69 Neutral | $1.95B | 14.72 | 22.02% | 1.12% | 15.70% | 19.92% | |
69 Neutral | $2.94B | 16.29 | ― | 0.94% | 0.28% | -1.57% | |
66 Neutral | $2.87B | 20.40 | 6.25% | 1.17% | -4.25% | -50.60% | |
65 Neutral | $4.76B | 25.39 | 9.71% | ― | 5.52% | -25.56% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
KNF
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84.06
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-9.64%
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Knife River Corporation Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Knife River Releases Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Earnings
Neutral
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Knife River Corporation announced its earnings results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, formalizing the disclosure in a press release furnished to regulators. The announcement provides investors and other stakeholde...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.