Smaregi, Inc. (4431) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥39.71B
• Dividend Yield: 0.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 65.61K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: 26.98%
• EPS Growth: 19.69%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 210
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 33.38
• Shares Outstanding: 19,693,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 80,770
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 65,606
• PEG Ratio: 1.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 33.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 105.1
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥13.68B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥2,427.00 ▼(-20.56% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/17/26

The score is primarily supported by strong financial fundamentals (fast growth, solid margins, high ROE, and minimal leverage). This is offset by weak technical conditions (price below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation is reasonable but not especially compelling given the low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth Momentum

Sustained high single- to double-digit top-line growth (21.7% YoY to ¥11.1B in 2025) indicates durable product adoption for Smaregi’s cloud POS and expanding customer footprint, supporting recurring subscription revenue and longer-term scale benefits for margins and cash flow.

Strong Profitability

Consistently healthy gross and operating margins (60%+ gross, ~21% EBIT, ~14.8% net) reflect differentiated software economics and pricing power in POS SaaS and services, enabling persistent cash generation and funding of growth without diluting unit economics.

Conservative Balance Sheet

Exceptionally low leverage and ample equity (debt-to-equity ~0.01x) provide financial flexibility, reduce default risk, and allow Smaregi to invest in product and integrations while maintaining strong returns on equity (~21%), supporting steady execution in a competitive market.

Negative Factors

Cash Conversion Variability

Operating cash flow lagging net income in 2025 and past years shows working-capital and timing swings that can cause periodic cash volatility, complicating reinvestment planning and making free-cash-flow reliability less predictable for funding growth or dividends.

Margin Variability Risk

While margins are strong now, historical swings versus earlier peaks suggest profitability is sensitive to cost structure, pricing or growth investments; sustained margin pressure would reduce free cash flow and strain the durable economics of the SaaS model.

ROE Sensitivity to Earnings Slowdown

Extremely conservative capital structure limits financial leverage benefits; if revenue or margins soften, ROE could fall quickly because returns rely primarily on operating performance rather than leverage, increasing downside risk to shareholder returns.

Smaregi, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Smaregi, Inc. plans, designs, develops, and provides Web services. The company also offers Smaregi, a cloud type POS cash register system; Smaregi Waiter, an order management system that uses smartphones; and Smaregi - Time Card, a cloud-based attendance management service that manages attendance information, as well as provides payroll calculation, vacation management, shift management, daily report, and project management functions. It is also involved in data collection/analysis and mail order businesses. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Smaregi primarily generates revenue from providing its cloud POS and related services to business customers. Key revenue streams include: (1) recurring fees from cloud POS software and associated service plans (subscription/usage-based SaaS), where customers pay to use the Smaregi platform and optional feature tiers; (2) revenue associated with supporting the deployment and operation of POS environments, which may include system setup and related service fees; and (3) sales or brokerage of POS-related devices and peripherals (e.g., terminals, receipt printers, cash drawers) that are used together with the Smaregi software, either sold directly or via partners, with the company earning margin and/or distribution fees. The company’s earnings are also influenced by the breadth of its integration ecosystem (e.g., connections to payment, ordering, and business applications) and partner channels that help drive customer acquisition and hardware/software bundle adoption. null

Smaregi, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong financial profile driven by accelerating revenue growth (+21.7% YoY in 2025), solid profitability (EBIT margin ~21%, net margin ~14.8%), and an exceptionally conservative balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~0.01x, ROE ~21%). Key watch-outs are some margin variability versus prior peaks and uneven cash conversion (OCF below net income in 2025).

Income Statement

Top-line momentum is strong, with revenue rising to 11.1B in 2025 (+21.7% YoY) following steady growth in prior years. Profitability is consistently high for the period shown: gross margin remains ~60%+ and 2025 operating profitability is solid (EBIT margin ~21%, EBITDA margin ~25%), while net margin is healthy at ~14.8%. The main watch-out is some margin variability versus earlier peaks (e.g., higher net margin in 2021), indicating profitability can fluctuate with the cost base or growth investments.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with minimal leverage: 2025 debt is only 100M and debt-to-equity is extremely low (~0.01x), following years with effectively no debt. Equity has expanded meaningfully (to 7.67B in 2025), supporting growth while keeping financial risk low. Returns on equity are strong and improving (about 21% in 2025), though the key risk is that very low leverage can make ROE more sensitive to any future earnings slowdown.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow rose to 2.47B in 2025 and free cash flow to 1.79B, with very strong 2025 free-cash-flow growth. Free cash flow is broadly supportive of earnings (about 73% of net income in 2025, and higher in most earlier years). The main weakness is that cash conversion is not consistently perfect—operating cash flow relative to net income is below 1.0 in 2025 (and was notably weaker in 2022), suggesting working-capital or timing effects can create periodic volatility.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2024	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2022	Apr 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.20B	11.07B	8.39B	5.91B	4.30B	3.32B
Gross Profit	3.87B	6.76B	5.20B	3.57B	2.64B	2.06B
EBITDA	1.36B	2.72B	1.95B	1.11B	744.93M	969.56M
Net Income	779.09M	1.64B	1.21B	887.60M	444.98M	583.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.59B	10.75B	7.96B	6.18B	5.20B	4.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.50B	5.91B	5.28B	3.96B	3.51B	3.61B
Total Debt	100.00M	100.00M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	2.84B	3.08B	1.99B	1.50B	1.00B	837.54M
Stockholders Equity	7.76B	7.67B	5.97B	4.68B	4.20B	3.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	1.79B	1.35B	806.71M	116.59M	672.99M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	2.47B	1.71B	986.44M	222.99M	772.77M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.92B	-393.08M	-310.73M	-84.51M	-103.03M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	82.22M	8.84M	-447.94M	17.21M	-228.70M

Smaregi, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3055.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4431, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3055 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2390.05, above the 50-day MA of 2581.84, and above the 200-day MA of 2977.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -109.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4431.

Smaregi, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3623	79 Outperform	¥6.72B	15.28	―	1.18%	6.95%	-9.62%
4431	71 Outperform	¥39.71B	20.49	―	0.52%	26.98%	19.69%
4374	70 Outperform	¥10.08B	20.41	―	0.47%	19.35%	71.74%
4496	69 Neutral	¥5.55B	12.30	―	2.50%	4.29%	-42.71%
3633	65 Neutral	¥10.06B	13.23	―	2.16%	2.75%	25.24%
3769	64 Neutral	¥587.48B	35.93	20.54%	1.47%	11.81%	16.69%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Smaregi, Inc. Corporate Events

Smaregi Starts Preparations to Seek Upgrade to TSE Prime Market

Smaregi, Inc. has announced that it will begin preparing an application to move its stock listing from the Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market to the Prime Market. The company aims to leverage this potential upgrade to support medium- to long-term growth and further enhance corporate value.

Management emphasized that no specific timetable has been set for the application or approval, and the move remains subject to change. Smaregi also cautioned that preparations could be suspended and there is no assurance the Tokyo Stock Exchange will approve the transfer, pledging to disclose any material developments as they occur.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4431) stock is a Buy with a Yen2756.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Smaregi, Inc. stock, see the JP:4431 Stock Forecast page.

Smaregi Cuts Sales Outlook but Keeps Profits Steady as Subscription Shift Accelerates

Smaregi, Inc. has revised its consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending April 30, 2026, lowering projected net sales to ¥13,149 million from ¥13,859 million while maintaining forecasts for operating profit, ordinary profit and net income. The company attributes the sales revision to a deliberate shift from one-time hardware sales to a hardware subscription model, which is boosting monthly fee revenues and annual recurring revenue and is expected to enhance the stability and profitability of its revenue base despite short-term pressure on product sales.

Within the revised outlook, monthly fees and related income are now forecast to reach ¥9,957 million, exceeding prior expectations, while sales of products and other items are projected to decline to ¥2,763 million as the traditional buy-out hardware model is de-emphasized. Smaregi expects the growing share of high-margin subscription revenue to strengthen its long-term corporate value and revenue structure, leaving profit forecasts unchanged even as total net sales are trimmed compared with the previous guidance and grow from the prior year’s results.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4431) stock is a Buy with a Yen2756.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Smaregi, Inc. stock, see the JP:4431 Stock Forecast page.

Smaregi Delivers Double-Digit Profit Growth and Lifts Full-Year Outlook

Smaregi reported strong growth for the nine months ended Jan. 31, 2026, with net sales rising 22.1% year on year to ¥9.62 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent up 25.2% to ¥1.53 billion. Earnings per share also improved, reflecting increased scale and profitability, while total assets and equity expanded following the finalization of accounting for prior business combinations.

The company maintained a solid equity-to-asset ratio of just over 69% and confirmed an unchanged dividend policy, projecting a full-year dividend of ¥20 per share. It also raised or reaffirmed its full-year forecast, now expecting ¥13.15 billion in net sales and ¥2.02 billion in profit attributable to owners of parent, which underscores management’s confidence in continued earnings momentum and supports its positioning as a growing SaaS player in the Japanese retail tech market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4431) stock is a Buy with a Yen2756.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Smaregi, Inc. stock, see the JP:4431 Stock Forecast page.

Smaregi to Absorb E-Commerce Subsidiary Netshop Supporters in May 2026

Smaregi, Inc. will merge with its wholly owned subsidiary Netshop Supporters Co., Ltd. on May 1, 2026, in an absorption-type transaction with Smaregi as the surviving company. The move follows Smaregi’s 2024 acquisition of Netshop Supporters, an e-commerce systems developer, and comes after a period of post-merger integration covering systems, marketing, and branding.

By fully integrating Netshop Supporters’ e-commerce expertise with Smaregi’s POS, payment, and CRM strengths, the company aims to streamline decision-making and strengthen group governance. Management expects the merger to enhance cross-department collaboration, accelerate cross-selling, and optimize resource allocation, supporting a more comprehensive service offering across POS, payment, and EC for its retail clients.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4431) stock is a Buy with a Yen2784.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Smaregi, Inc. stock, see the JP:4431 Stock Forecast page.