Commerce One Holdings, Inc. (4496) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥5.73B
• Dividend Yield: 2.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.42K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.59
• Revenue Growth: 4.29%
• EPS Growth: -42.71%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 176
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 15.86
• Shares Outstanding: 7,193,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,150
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,423
• PEG Ratio: -0.86
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥860.00 ▲(10.26% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial positioning (very low leverage) and strong recent revenue acceleration, tempered by thinner net margins, weaker cash conversion and declining free cash flow. Technicals are neutral-to-soft with a negative MACD and price slightly below longer-term averages, while valuation is moderate with some support from the dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Very low leverage / strong balance sheet

Extremely low debt and a sizable equity cushion give long-term financial flexibility: supports investments, M&A, dividend continuity, and resilience in downturns. Minimal interest burden preserves operating cash, reducing refinancing and solvency risk over the next 2–6 months.

Sharp TTM revenue acceleration

Sustained, large top-line acceleration indicates improving product-market fit and expanding customer adoption. Structural revenue growth can drive scale benefits, support higher absolute profits, and enable cross-sell and platform network effects that strengthen competitive position over coming quarters.

Positive operating and free cash generation

Meaningful operating and free cash flow provide durable funding for operations, capex, dividends or buybacks without relying on external financing. Even with some conversion issues, solid absolute cash inflows improve the company's ability to execute strategic initiatives and sustain growth.

Negative Factors

Thin net margin

A low net margin limits retained earnings and makes profitability sensitive to cost increases or pricing pressure. Even with revenue growth, thin bottom-line margins reduce free earnings available for reinvestment and raise the bar for achieving durable EPS improvement.

Weak cash conversion & declining FCF

Lower cash conversion and falling free cash flow suggest working-capital headwinds or timing mismatches that can constrain liquidity. Over several months this can limit reinvestment, reduce buffer for unexpected costs, and force dependence on the balance sheet despite low leverage.

Moderate ROE, below prior-year levels

A modest and declining ROE implies the company is not yet converting its equity base into proportionate profits. Persistent underperformance on ROE signals potential inefficiencies in capital allocation and may pressure management to improve margins or restructure investments to lift long-term returns.

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Commerce One Holdings Inc. provides solutions for e-commerce business operators to start and operate their businesses. The company provides e-commerce site construction and operation services; sales management and inventory management system for the e-commerce business; and management support tools, such as EC site authentication service and order trend display based on data analysis. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Chiyoda, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its e-commerce platform and transaction fees associated with sales conducted on its marketplace. The company also earns income from providing premium services, such as enhanced data analytics and customized solutions for enterprise clients. Significant partnerships with major retailers and suppliers further contribute to its earnings by expanding its user base and increasing transaction volumes on its platform. Additionally, the company may generate revenue through advertising and promotional services offered to businesses looking to reach potential customers within its marketplace.

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong balance sheet with minimal leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.02) and sharply accelerating TTM revenue (~206% growth). Profitability is respectable at the operating level (EBIT margin ~11.8%), but net margin is thin (~4.5%) versus prior years, and cash conversion is weaker (operating cash flow ~0.61x net income) with free cash flow down ~18% YoY.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue accelerated sharply (about 206% growth) with solid gross profitability (~57%). Operating profitability is respectable (EBIT margin ~11.8%, EBITDA margin ~15.5%), and net income improved versus the latest annual period. The main weakness is that net profitability remains thin in TTM (~4.5% net margin) and is well below the stronger margins seen in prior years, indicating either higher costs, investment spend, or less favorable mix despite the strong top-line jump.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks very conservative: debt is low and leverage is minimal (debt-to-equity ~0.02 in both TTM and the latest annual period). Equity is sizable relative to assets, providing a strong cushion and flexibility. Return on equity is positive but moderate in TTM (~6.5%) and below prior-year levels, suggesting profitability has not fully kept pace with the capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive with healthy TTM operating cash flow (~426M) and free cash flow (~418M), and free cash flow is broadly supported by earnings (free cash flow around ~91% of net income). However, free cash flow declined meaningfully versus the prior period (about -18% growth), and operating cash flow remains well below net income in TTM (roughly 0.61x), pointing to weaker cash conversion and potential working-capital headwinds even though absolute cash flow is still solid.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.87B	3.69B	3.56B	3.20B	2.94B	2.52B
Gross Profit	2.16B	2.10B	2.02B	1.80B	1.70B	1.47B
EBITDA	579.21M	483.08M	846.67M	699.02M	752.18M	669.64M
Net Income	231.60M	90.63M	414.86M	441.36M	495.98M	393.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.61B	3.47B	3.88B	3.51B	3.11B	2.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.71B	1.86B	1.73B	1.61B	1.64B	1.23B
Total Debt	61.63M	54.44M	47.00M	47.00M	14.15M	17.76M
Total Liabilities	952.45M	948.30M	1.04B	889.59M	822.17M	780.93M
Stockholders Equity	2.65B	2.52B	2.84B	2.62B	2.29B	1.81B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	417.67M	479.30M	661.63M	54.65M	398.37M	363.99M
Operating Cash Flow	426.50M	532.78M	778.61M	163.97M	515.51M	466.62M
Investing Cash Flow	-132.75M	-182.39M	-367.76M	-56.40M	-111.19M	-102.05M
Financing Cash Flow	-223.67M	-213.37M	-307.41M	-142.77M	-3.68M	92.84M

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 780.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4496, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 780 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 786.55, below the 50-day MA of 790.10, and below the 200-day MA of 795.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4496.

Commerce One Holdings, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3623	79 Outperform	¥7.36B	17.79	―	1.18%	6.95%	-9.62%
4431	75 Outperform	¥49.71B	28.22	―	0.52%	26.98%	19.69%
4374	72 Outperform	¥9.10B	16.26	―	0.47%	19.35%	71.74%
4496	69 Neutral	¥5.73B	24.33	―	2.50%	4.29%	-42.71%
3633	65 Neutral	¥10.84B	12.15	―	2.16%	2.75%	25.24%
3769	64 Neutral	$613.64B	27.38	19.76%	1.47%	11.81%	16.69%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%