GMO Payment Gateway (3769) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥613.64B
• Dividend Yield: 1.47%
• Average Volume (3M): 194.85K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.83
• Revenue Growth: 11.81%
• EPS Growth: 16.69%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 853
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 67.87
• Shares Outstanding: 76,557,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 198,670
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 194,853
• PEG Ratio: 1.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.63
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥11,140.76
• Price Target Upside: 37.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 319.92
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥94.08B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥7,876.00 ▼(-2.66% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is supported primarily by strong underlying financial performance (high margins and healthy returns). It is meaningfully reduced by weak technical conditions (below major moving averages with negative MACD and very oversold RSI/Stoch) and a valuation that appears only moderate given a mid-20s P/E and ~1.9% yield.

Positive Factors

High margins

Sustained very high gross and operating margins indicate the payment gateway model has strong unit economics and pricing power. High margins support durable profitability, fund reinvestment in product and security, and create a buffer versus downside in transaction volumes.

Strong returns (ROE)

A ~20% ROE reflects efficient capital allocation and the ability to convert equity into returns. Persistent high ROE signals competitive advantages and management competency in deploying capital, supporting long-term shareholder value and reducing reliance on external funding.

Solid cash generation

FCF roughly matching net income shows high earnings quality and strong conversion of profits into cash. Reliable cash generation supports recurring investments, platform resilience, and shareholder returns, underpinning durability even if growth moderates.

Negative Factors

Revenue deceleration

Top-line growth has slowed from prior multi-year gains to low-teens, reducing the pace at which scale benefits and margin expansion can compound. Prolonged deceleration would constrain reinvestment, limit market-share gains, and heighten reliance on pricing or fee mix to sustain profit growth.

FCF decline & volatility

A ~13% decline in recent TTM free cash flow and historical volatility weaken predictability for capex, M&A, and dividends. Fluctuating cash conversion increases the chance management must alter capital allocation under stress, reducing long-term financial planning visibility.

Rising leverage

Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises interest obligation sensitivity to rate shifts. With growth slowing and cash volatility present, a meaningful debt funding mix increases refinancing and covenant risks, potentially constraining strategic investments or shareholder returns.

GMO Payment Gateway Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GMO Payment Gateway, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial services and integrated payment related services. It operates through three segments: Payment Enhancement Business, Payment Processing Business, and Money Service Business. The company offers PG multi-payment service, a payment platform that provides credit card payment, convenience store payment, account transfer, and multi-currency credit card payment. It also provides GMO payment after delivery; Ginko Pay Base System, a smartphone app that enables payments to be made by an immediate debit from the bank account; and GMO-PG processing platform, which helps financial institutions or financial service providers start payment-related services by enabling payment infrastructure building, as well as security services. In addition, the company offers global payment services; and early payment, GMO-PG remittance, guarantees, and transaction lending services. Further, it offers online advertising services consisting of administrative services for listing ads that use Yahoo! Promotional Ads and Google AdWords; and administrative services for Facebook Ads, Google Analytics, etc. It serves online merchants and public organizations, such as NHK, National Tax Agency, and Tokyo Metropolitan Government; and banks and other financial institutions. GMO Payment Gateway, Inc. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

GMO Payment Gateway generates revenue primarily through transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments. Each time a customer makes a purchase using the payment gateway, the company receives a percentage of the transaction amount as a fee. Additionally, the company offers subscription-based services for its advanced payment solutions, which provide merchants with enhanced features and tools for managing their online transactions. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and e-commerce platforms further contribute to its earnings, as these collaborations enable the company to expand its customer base and improve service offerings. Furthermore, the company may earn revenue from value-added services such as fraud prevention, analytics, and other financial services that enhance the overall payment processing experience for businesses.

GMO Payment Gateway Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and returns (high gross and net margins; solid ROE) support a high financial score. Offsetting factors are slowing recent revenue growth and a recent decline/volatility in free cash flow, which adds durability risk.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show very strong profitability with ~66% gross margin and ~26% net margin, supported by high operating profitability (~39% EBIT margin). Revenue has grown materially over the multi-year period, and margins have generally expanded versus earlier years. The main weakness is a clear slowdown in the latest annual revenue growth (low-teens) versus the higher growth rates seen previously, suggesting decelerating top-line momentum.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks reasonable: debt is ~0.58x equity in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with equity continuing to build over time. Returns to shareholders are healthy (ROE ~20% TTM), indicating efficient capital use. The key watch-out is that leverage has ticked up versus some prior periods, and the business remains meaningfully debt-funded, which could reduce flexibility if growth or cash generation softens.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is currently solid: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow is close to net income (~1.0x), indicating good earnings quality. However, free cash flow declined in the latest TTM period (down ~13%), and cash flow has shown volatility historically (including very weak/negative operating cash flow earlier), which introduces durability risk despite the strong recent levels.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	84.70B	82.50B	73.79B	63.12B	50.30B	41.67B
Gross Profit	55.81B	54.26B	48.10B	39.99B	33.64B	28.10B
EBITDA	37.00B	35.94B	31.47B	23.22B	20.62B	15.98B
Net Income	22.41B	21.83B	18.71B	13.48B	24.15B	8.82B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	443.76B	406.80B	344.70B	292.35B	273.41B	215.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	227.77B	220.83B	174.76B	138.96B	130.47B	106.52B
Total Debt	68.05B	65.38B	53.10B	49.11B	42.68B	34.75B
Total Liabilities	330.40B	290.62B	238.88B	197.54B	184.15B	157.64B
Stockholders Equity	110.16B	113.01B	102.90B	92.27B	87.12B	55.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	47.12B	54.22B	45.03B	1.50B	4.69B	-8.27B
Operating Cash Flow	47.52B	54.50B	49.47B	6.13B	7.66B	-6.34B
Investing Cash Flow	-9.88B	-8.07B	-5.23B	17.76B	-2.44B	2.23B
Financing Cash Flow	1.23B	-1.24B	-3.73B	-6.42B	2.64B	12.78B

GMO Payment Gateway Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 8091.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3769, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8091 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8068.10, below the 50-day MA of 8999.88, and below the 200-day MA of 8771.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -418.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:3769.

GMO Payment Gateway Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3623	79 Outperform	¥7.36B	17.79	―	1.18%	6.95%	-9.62%
4431	75 Outperform	¥49.71B	28.22	―	0.52%	26.98%	19.69%
4374	72 Outperform	¥9.10B	16.26	―	0.47%	19.35%	71.74%
4496	69 Neutral	¥5.73B	24.33	―	2.50%	4.29%	-42.71%
3633	65 Neutral	¥10.84B	12.15	―	2.16%	2.75%	25.24%
3769	64 Neutral	¥613.64B	27.38	19.76%	1.47%	11.81%	16.69%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

GMO Payment Gateway Corporate Events

GMO Payment Gateway Introduces Bitcoin-Based Shareholder Benefit Program

GMO Payment Gateway will launch a new shareholder benefit program starting with shareholders of record as of March 31, 2026, designed to encourage long-term shareholding and deepen understanding of its and the GMO Internet Group’s businesses. Eligible investors holding at least 100 shares for six months or more will receive Bitcoin credited to a GMO Coin cryptoasset account, equivalent to 0.03% of GMO-PG share purchases made via GMO Click Securities, up to ¥10,000, reinforcing ties within the GMO group’s ecosystem and potentially boosting both shareholder loyalty and trading through affiliated platforms.

The program applies to shareholders recorded each March 31 and September 30, with the continuous holding condition waived for the initial March 31, 2026 record date to ease entry into the scheme. By tying benefits to equity purchases executed through group brokerage GMO Click Securities and distributing them in Bitcoin via group exchange GMO Coin, the initiative integrates GMO-PG’s capital policy with the broader digital finance strategy of the GMO Internet Group, aligning incentives across shareholders, the company, and its affiliated financial service providers.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3769) stock is a Buy with a Yen9669.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMO Payment Gateway stock, see the JP:3769 Stock Forecast page.

GMO Payment Gateway Lifts Q1 Earnings and Sticks to Robust FY2026 Outlook

GMO Payment Gateway reported solid growth for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with revenue rising 10.8% year on year to ¥22.49 billion and operating profit up 18.0%, while profit attributable to owners of the parent increased 12.8%. Basic earnings per share climbed to ¥67.87, supported by higher payment volumes, though the equity ratio declined to 24.8% as total assets expanded.

The company maintained its dividend policy with no interim payout but plans a higher full-year dividend of ¥170 per share, up from ¥144 in the prior year. It also left its full-year forecast unchanged, projecting a 13.0% rise in revenue and 20.1% growth in operating profit, signaling confidence in continued expansion of its payment platform business and stable earnings momentum for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3769) stock is a Buy with a Yen9669.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMO Payment Gateway stock, see the JP:3769 Stock Forecast page.

GMO Payment Gateway Details Parent Company Relationship

GMO Payment Gateway, Inc. announced details regarding its relationship with its parent company, GMO Internet Group, which holds 40.73% of its voting rights. The announcement highlights the strategic positioning of GMO-PG within the group and the roles of its directors, many of whom hold concurrent positions within the parent company, emphasizing collaboration and governance enhancement.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3769) stock is a Buy with a Yen9480.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMO Payment Gateway stock, see the JP:3769 Stock Forecast page.

GMO Payment Gateway Adjusts Convertible Bond Conversion Price

GMO Payment Gateway, Inc. announced an adjustment to the conversion price of its Zero Coupon Convertible Bonds due 2026, following the approval of a dividend proposal at the FY2025 Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders. This adjustment reflects the company’s commitment to aligning its financial instruments with shareholder interests, potentially impacting investor perceptions and the company’s financial strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3769) stock is a Buy with a Yen9480.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMO Payment Gateway stock, see the JP:3769 Stock Forecast page.