Smaregi, Inc. (4431) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥47.93B
• Dividend Yield: 0.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 65.61K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.84
• Revenue Growth: 26.98%
• EPS Growth: 19.69%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 210
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 26.51
• Shares Outstanding: 19,693,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 80,770
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 65,606
• PEG Ratio: 1.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 33.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 103.8
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥13.68B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥2,859.00 ▼(-6.42% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/30/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/30/25

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (rapid growth, solid margins, very low leverage and strong ROE). Technicals are moderately supportive with neutral-to-positive momentum, but the overall score is held back by a relatively high P/E and low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Sustained revenue growth

Consistent top-line expansion (21.7% YoY to ¥11.1B) reflects durable demand for cloud POS and ecosystem offerings. Sustained revenue growth supports recurring subscription economics, improves scale benefits across R&D and sales, and underpins multi-year cash generation and market share gains.

High and sustainable margins

Elevated gross and operating margins indicate strong unit economics and pricing power in its SaaS and services mix. Margin durability provides cash to invest in product development and partner integrations, supporting long-term competitive position and the ability to fund growth without high external financing.

Conservative balance sheet and solid FCF

Extremely low leverage and strong free cash flow give the company financial resilience and optionality. Ample internal cash reduces refinancing risk, enables organic investment, selective M&A, and partner ecosystem expansion, supporting structural growth while keeping financial risk low.

Negative Factors

Volatile cash conversion

Operating cash flow lagging net income in 2025 and prior volatility (notably weaker in 2022) points to working-capital and timing effects. Persistent variability can strain near-term liquidity, complicate capital allocation, and make free-cash-flow forecasting and durable payout or buyback policies harder to rely on.

Margin variability versus earlier peaks

Although margins are healthy, past peaks were higher, indicating sensitivity to cost mix, growth investments, or hardware/service mix. Structural shifts—such as increased sales costs, integration expenses, or changes in product mix—could compress margins and weaken free cash flow over a multi-quarter horizon.

Very low leverage raises ROE sensitivity

Minimal debt reduces financial risk but also limits return amplification from modest leverage. With equity expanded, any sustained earnings weakness would disproportionately lower ROE. This capital structure makes reported returns more sensitive to operating performance deterioration over months to quarters.

Smaregi, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Smaregi, Inc. plans, designs, develops, and provides Web services. The company also offers Smaregi, a cloud type POS cash register system; Smaregi Waiter, an order management system that uses smartphones; and Smaregi - Time Card, a cloud-based attendance management service that manages attendance information, as well as provides payroll calculation, vacation management, shift management, daily report, and project management functions. It is also involved in data collection/analysis and mail order businesses. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Smaregi, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale and subscription of its cloud-based POS systems and related services. The company offers a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model, where businesses pay for the use of its POS platform on a subscription basis. This includes fees for different tiers of service, depending on the features and scale required by the customer. Additionally, Smaregi may earn revenue from hardware sales, such as tablets and receipt printers, that complement its software solutions. The company also benefits from partnerships with other technology providers, which can lead to expanded service offerings and increased market reach.

Smaregi, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (+21.7% YoY to 11.1B in 2025) with solid profitability (EBIT margin ~21%, EBITDA ~25%, net margin ~14.8%). Balance sheet is very conservative (debt-to-equity ~0.01x) with strong ROE (~21%). Cash flow is healthy (FCF 1.79B) but cash conversion can be volatile (OCF vs net income <1.0 in 2025).

Income Statement

Top-line momentum is strong, with revenue rising to 11.1B in 2025 (+21.7% YoY) following steady growth in prior years. Profitability is consistently high for the period shown: gross margin remains ~60%+ and 2025 operating profitability is solid (EBIT margin ~21%, EBITDA margin ~25%), while net margin is healthy at ~14.8%. The main watch-out is some margin variability versus earlier peaks (e.g., higher net margin in 2021), indicating profitability can fluctuate with the cost base or growth investments.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with minimal leverage: 2025 debt is only 100M and debt-to-equity is extremely low (~0.01x), following years with effectively no debt. Equity has expanded meaningfully (to 7.67B in 2025), supporting growth while keeping financial risk low. Returns on equity are strong and improving (about 21% in 2025), though the key risk is that very low leverage can make ROE more sensitive to any future earnings slowdown.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow rose to 2.47B in 2025 and free cash flow to 1.79B, with very strong 2025 free-cash-flow growth. Free cash flow is broadly supportive of earnings (about 73% of net income in 2025, and higher in most earlier years). The main weakness is that cash conversion is not consistently perfect—operating cash flow relative to net income is below 1.0 in 2025 (and was notably weaker in 2022), suggesting working-capital or timing effects can create periodic volatility.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2024	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2022	Apr 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.20B	11.07B	8.39B	5.91B	4.30B	3.32B
Gross Profit	3.87B	6.76B	5.20B	3.57B	2.64B	2.06B
EBITDA	1.36B	2.72B	1.95B	1.11B	744.93M	969.56M
Net Income	779.09M	1.64B	1.21B	887.60M	444.98M	583.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.59B	10.67B	7.95B	6.16B	5.36B	4.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.50B	5.91B	5.28B	3.96B	3.77B	3.61B
Total Debt	100.00M	100.00M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	2.84B	3.00B	1.98B	1.48B	1.05B	822.71M
Stockholders Equity	7.76B	7.67B	5.97B	4.68B	4.31B	3.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	1.79B	1.35B	806.71M	116.59M	672.99M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	2.47B	1.71B	986.44M	222.99M	772.77M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.92B	-393.08M	-310.73M	-84.51M	-103.03M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	82.22M	8.84M	-447.94M	17.21M	-228.70M

Smaregi, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 3055.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4431, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3055 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2449.70, above the 50-day MA of 2776.78, and above the 200-day MA of 3045.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -73.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:4431.

Smaregi, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3623	79 Outperform	¥7.20B	17.79	―	1.18%	6.95%	-9.62%
4431	75 Outperform	¥47.93B	28.22	―	0.52%	26.98%	19.69%
4374	72 Outperform	¥8.73B	16.26	―	0.47%	19.35%	71.74%
4496	69 Neutral	¥5.66B	24.33	―	2.50%	4.29%	-42.71%
3633	65 Neutral	¥10.66B	12.15	―	2.16%	2.75%	25.24%
3769	64 Neutral	¥591.50B	27.38	19.76%	1.47%	11.81%	16.69%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Smaregi, Inc. Corporate Events

Smaregi to Absorb E-Commerce Subsidiary Netshop Supporters in May 2026

Smaregi, Inc. will merge with its wholly owned subsidiary Netshop Supporters Co., Ltd. on May 1, 2026, in an absorption-type transaction with Smaregi as the surviving company. The move follows Smaregi’s 2024 acquisition of Netshop Supporters, an e-commerce systems developer, and comes after a period of post-merger integration covering systems, marketing, and branding.

By fully integrating Netshop Supporters’ e-commerce expertise with Smaregi’s POS, payment, and CRM strengths, the company aims to streamline decision-making and strengthen group governance. Management expects the merger to enhance cross-department collaboration, accelerate cross-selling, and optimize resource allocation, supporting a more comprehensive service offering across POS, payment, and EC for its retail clients.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4431) stock is a Buy with a Yen2784.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Smaregi, Inc. stock, see the JP:4431 Stock Forecast page.

Smaregi Surpasses JPY 10 Billion ARR Milestone

Smaregi, Inc. has achieved a significant milestone by surpassing JPY 10 billion in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) as of November 2025, marking a 42.1% year-on-year growth. This achievement reflects the widespread adoption of their services across various industries, driven by the company’s commitment to improving store management and supporting small and midsize businesses. Smaregi aims to establish itself as a leading player in the store infrastructure domain by expanding essential functions and delivering practical features that provide immediate value to store operations.

Smaregi, Inc. Reports Positive Financial Growth for 2025

Smaregi, Inc. reported its consolidated financial results for the six months ending October 31, 2025, showing net sales of ¥6,264 million and a profit attributable to owners of the parent of ¥887 million. The company has also revised its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending April 30, 2026, expecting a 25.2% increase in net sales and a 22.6% rise in profit attributable to owners of the parent, indicating positive growth and strong market positioning.