Smaregi, Inc. (4431) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥47.60B
• Dividend Yield: 0.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 65.61K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: 26.98%
• EPS Growth: 19.69%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 210
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 26.51
• Shares Outstanding: 19,693,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 80,770
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 65,606
• PEG Ratio: 1.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 33.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 103.8
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥13.68B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥2,656.00 ▼(-13.06% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/30/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/30/25

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (rapid growth, solid margins, very low leverage and strong ROE). Technicals are moderately supportive with neutral-to-positive momentum, but the overall score is held back by a relatively high P/E and low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Recurring SaaS model & ecosystem

Smaregi’s core cloud-POS subscription model and broad partner/hardware ecosystem create predictable recurring revenue and high customer stickiness. That durable SaaS mix supports multi-quarter revenue visibility, easier upsell and cross-sell, and resilience versus one-time sales volatility.

Strong revenue growth and profitability

Sustained double-digit top-line growth with healthy operating and net margins indicates scalable unit economics and product-market fit. Consistent profitability provides internal funding for product development and supports durable cash generation across planning horizons.

Conservative balance sheet and solid FCF

Extremely low leverage combined with meaningful operating and free cash flow gives Smaregi financial flexibility to invest, weather shocks, or pursue acquisitions without relying on external financing. The balance-sheet strength reduces refinancing and solvency risks over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Cash conversion volatility

Operating cash flow lagging net income in 2025 and prior weakness imply working-capital and timing variability. This reduces the quality and predictability of reported earnings, can strain near-term liquidity during growth phases, and complicates cash-based planning for investments.

Margin variability versus prior peaks

Noted fluctuations in net and operating margins versus historical peaks suggest profitability is sensitive to cost structure, sales mix (software vs hardware), or investment cycles. Persistent margin pressure would erode FCF and returns, limiting reinvestment capacity over time.

Very low leverage raises ROE sensitivity

While conservative leverage reduces financial risk, minimal use of debt also limits upside from financial leverage; if earnings weaken, ROE could fall more sharply. This structural profile reduces flexibility to boost returns through prudent leverage during slower growth periods.

Smaregi, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Smaregi, Inc. plans, designs, develops, and provides Web services. The company also offers Smaregi, a cloud type POS cash register system; Smaregi Waiter, an order management system that uses smartphones; and Smaregi - Time Card, a cloud-based attendance management service that manages attendance information, as well as provides payroll calculation, vacation management, shift management, daily report, and project management functions. It is also involved in data collection/analysis and mail order businesses. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Smaregi primarily generates revenue from providing its cloud POS and related services to business customers. Key revenue streams include: (1) recurring fees from cloud POS software and associated service plans (subscription/usage-based SaaS), where customers pay to use the Smaregi platform and optional feature tiers; (2) revenue associated with supporting the deployment and operation of POS environments, which may include system setup and related service fees; and (3) sales or brokerage of POS-related devices and peripherals (e.g., terminals, receipt printers, cash drawers) that are used together with the Smaregi software, either sold directly or via partners, with the company earning margin and/or distribution fees. The company’s earnings are also influenced by the breadth of its integration ecosystem (e.g., connections to payment, ordering, and business applications) and partner channels that help drive customer acquisition and hardware/software bundle adoption. null

Smaregi, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (+21.7% YoY to 11.1B in 2025) with solid profitability (EBIT margin ~21%, EBITDA ~25%, net margin ~14.8%). Balance sheet is very conservative (debt-to-equity ~0.01x) with strong ROE (~21%). Cash flow is healthy (FCF 1.79B) but cash conversion can be volatile (OCF vs net income <1.0 in 2025).

Income Statement

Top-line momentum is strong, with revenue rising to 11.1B in 2025 (+21.7% YoY) following steady growth in prior years. Profitability is consistently high for the period shown: gross margin remains ~60%+ and 2025 operating profitability is solid (EBIT margin ~21%, EBITDA margin ~25%), while net margin is healthy at ~14.8%. The main watch-out is some margin variability versus earlier peaks (e.g., higher net margin in 2021), indicating profitability can fluctuate with the cost base or growth investments.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with minimal leverage: 2025 debt is only 100M and debt-to-equity is extremely low (~0.01x), following years with effectively no debt. Equity has expanded meaningfully (to 7.67B in 2025), supporting growth while keeping financial risk low. Returns on equity are strong and improving (about 21% in 2025), though the key risk is that very low leverage can make ROE more sensitive to any future earnings slowdown.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow rose to 2.47B in 2025 and free cash flow to 1.79B, with very strong 2025 free-cash-flow growth. Free cash flow is broadly supportive of earnings (about 73% of net income in 2025, and higher in most earlier years). The main weakness is that cash conversion is not consistently perfect—operating cash flow relative to net income is below 1.0 in 2025 (and was notably weaker in 2022), suggesting working-capital or timing effects can create periodic volatility.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2024	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2022	Apr 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.20B	11.07B	8.39B	5.91B	4.30B	3.32B
Gross Profit	3.87B	6.76B	5.20B	3.57B	2.64B	2.06B
EBITDA	1.36B	2.72B	1.95B	1.11B	744.93M	969.56M
Net Income	779.09M	1.64B	1.21B	887.60M	444.98M	583.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.59B	10.67B	7.95B	6.16B	5.36B	4.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.50B	5.91B	5.28B	3.96B	3.77B	3.61B
Total Debt	100.00M	100.00M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	2.84B	3.00B	1.98B	1.48B	1.05B	822.71M
Stockholders Equity	7.76B	7.67B	5.97B	4.68B	4.31B	3.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	1.79B	1.35B	806.71M	116.59M	672.99M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	2.47B	1.71B	986.44M	222.99M	772.77M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.92B	-393.08M	-310.73M	-84.51M	-103.03M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	82.22M	8.84M	-447.94M	17.21M	-228.70M

Smaregi, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3055.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4431, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3055 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2403.85, above the 50-day MA of 2699.50, and above the 200-day MA of 3021.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -69.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4431.

Smaregi, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3623	79 Outperform	¥7.02B	15.28	―	1.18%	6.95%	-9.62%
4431	75 Outperform	¥47.60B	26.84	―	0.52%	26.98%	19.69%
4374	70 Outperform	¥9.44B	20.41	―	0.47%	19.35%	71.74%
4496	69 Neutral	¥5.55B	12.30	―	2.50%	4.29%	-42.71%
3633	65 Neutral	¥10.52B	13.23	―	2.16%	2.75%	25.24%
3769	64 Neutral	¥606.51B	35.93	20.54%	1.47%	11.81%	16.69%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Smaregi, Inc. Corporate Events

Smaregi to Absorb E-Commerce Subsidiary Netshop Supporters in May 2026

Smaregi, Inc. will merge with its wholly owned subsidiary Netshop Supporters Co., Ltd. on May 1, 2026, in an absorption-type transaction with Smaregi as the surviving company. The move follows Smaregi’s 2024 acquisition of Netshop Supporters, an e-commerce systems developer, and comes after a period of post-merger integration covering systems, marketing, and branding.

By fully integrating Netshop Supporters’ e-commerce expertise with Smaregi’s POS, payment, and CRM strengths, the company aims to streamline decision-making and strengthen group governance. Management expects the merger to enhance cross-department collaboration, accelerate cross-selling, and optimize resource allocation, supporting a more comprehensive service offering across POS, payment, and EC for its retail clients.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4431) stock is a Buy with a Yen2784.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Smaregi, Inc. stock, see the JP:4431 Stock Forecast page.

Smaregi Surpasses JPY 10 Billion ARR Milestone

Smaregi, Inc. has achieved a significant milestone by surpassing JPY 10 billion in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) as of November 2025, marking a 42.1% year-on-year growth. This achievement reflects the widespread adoption of their services across various industries, driven by the company’s commitment to improving store management and supporting small and midsize businesses. Smaregi aims to establish itself as a leading player in the store infrastructure domain by expanding essential functions and delivering practical features that provide immediate value to store operations.

Smaregi, Inc. Reports Positive Financial Growth for 2025

Smaregi, Inc. reported its consolidated financial results for the six months ending October 31, 2025, showing net sales of ¥6,264 million and a profit attributable to owners of the parent of ¥887 million. The company has also revised its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending April 30, 2026, expecting a 25.2% increase in net sales and a 22.6% rise in profit attributable to owners of the parent, indicating positive growth and strong market positioning.