Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)
NASDAQ:JCAP
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Jefferson Capital, Inc.
(NASDAQ:JCAP)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$21.00
▲(5.21% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/15/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed fundamentals: strong profitability is outweighed by a major 2025 cash flow breakdown and high leverage. Technicals add near-term caution (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while very low valuation and a constructive earnings-call outlook provide meaningful support.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Profitability Growth
Sustained top-line expansion and high net margins indicate durable earnings power from the core collections/deployments model. Multi-year revenue growth coupled with a ~30.6% net margin supports long-term cash generation potential and resilience in the company’s operating economics.
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Collapse
A near-total collapse of free cash flow is a durable red flag for earnings quality and liquidity conversion. If driven by collection or working-capital changes rather than one-offs, it constrains capacity to fund deployments, meet debt service, sustain dividends, and increases reliance on external funding.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & Profitability Growth
Sustained top-line expansion and high net margins indicate durable earnings power from the core collections/deployments model. Multi-year revenue growth coupled with a ~30.6% net margin supports long-term cash generation potential and resilience in the company’s operating economics.
Read all positive factors
Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.10B
Dividend Yield2.11%
Average Volume (3M)373.00K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.6
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,205
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.69
Shares Outstanding55,329,124
10 Day Avg. Volume258,696
30 Day Avg. Volume373,001
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)1.09
P/FCF Ratio2.27K
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.54
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.00Price Target Upside30.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)2.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)$678.90M
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America. The company primarily purchases portfolios of previously charged-off consumer receivables at d...
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial momentum with record collections, deployments, revenue, improved leverage, and successful integration of strategic portfolio purchases (Conn's and Bluestem). Efficiency and underwriting strength were reiterated, and capital structure improvements and shareholder returns were highlighted. Key challenges include materially higher upfront legal/court costs driven by increased legal volumes, seasonality and the need to replace ERC runoff, and macro vulnerabilities tied to lower consumer savings and rising insolvencies. Overall, positive business fundamentals and growth track record outweigh manageable near-term cost and seasonality pressures.Positive Updates
Record Collections and Strong YoY Growth
Generated record collections of $245 million in Q4, up 41% year-over-year, driven by deployments in 2023–2024 and portfolio contributions (Conn's contributed $36M and Bluestem $14M in the quarter).
Negative Updates
Rising Legal Channel and Court Costs
Court costs rose to $17.7 million in Q4, an 86% increase year-over-year, driven by higher legal channel volumes; these are upfront expenses and management expects core court costs to remain at elevated levels given larger inventory of suit-eligible accounts.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Collections and Strong YoY Growth
Generated record collections of $245 million in Q4, up 41% year-over-year, driven by deployments in 2023–2024 and portfolio contributions (Conn's contributed $36M and Bluestem $14M in the quarter).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized Bluestem as a meaningful contributor in 2026 and reiterated strong near‑term liquidity and deployment targets: they expect to collect $1.1 billion of the $3.4 billion estimated remaining collections (ERC) over the next 12 months (58% of ERC expected through 2027), would need to deploy ~$582 million globally to replace that 12‑month runoff based on 2025 purchase multiples, and already have roughly $225–$274 million of forward‑flow/contracted deployments as of December 31; they flagged seasonality (Q4 is largest for deployments, Q1 typically decelerates) and said legal‑channel costs will remain elevated as suit volumes grow. Capital and tax guidance included a year‑end net debt/adjusted cash EBITDA of 1.9x with a long‑run target of 2.0–2.5x, a $1.0 billion revolver (up $175M) with $232M drawn and $300M capacity earmarked to repay May 2026 bonds (which they may keep to retain a 6% coupon), a $0.24 quarterly dividend (~4.7% annualized yield), a tactical $59M repurchase of 3M shares, and an indicative 2026 tax rate of ~24.5%; efficiency expectations were for underlying cash efficiency in the high‑60s (Q4 cash efficiency 71% including Conn's/Bluestem, 68% excl.; full‑year 2025 74% incl., 69.7% excl.).Jefferson Capital, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2019 | Dec 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 613.29M | 433.30M | 323.07M | 45.09M | 31.21M |
| Gross Profit | 415.58M | 308.40M | 238.44M | 41.10M | 29.50M |
| EBITDA | 329.47M | 158.06M | 121.22M | 59.17M | 60.01M |
| Net Income | 187.97M | 105.30M | 111.52M | 44.41M | 54.37M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.09B | 1.65B | 1.12B | 812.78M | 590.41M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 47.55M | 35.51M | 14.37M | 3.28M | 8.71M |
| Total Debt | 1.71B | 1.19B | 770.93M | 202.79M | 24.61M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.61B | 1.27B | 811.78M | 223.90M | 42.54M |
| Stockholders Equity | 476.13M | 382.53M | 274.79M | 588.87M | 547.86M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 295.10K | 162.00M | 118.99M | -180.21M | -281.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 295.10K | 168.21M | 120.22M | -13.63M | -6.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -542.37M | -403.41M | -321.31M | -241.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 388.82M | 289.86M | -4.17M | 34.97M |
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Risk Analysis
Jefferson Capital, Inc. disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jefferson Capital, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $161.58M | 28.48 | 0.54% | 10.37% | 10.48% | -30.67% | |
72 Outperform | $1.26B | 3.73 | 15.80% | 5.20% | 9.32% | 29.40% | |
68 Neutral | $6.66B | 10.25 | 23.40% | 6.07% | 9.51% | 29.38% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
61 Neutral | $1.10B | 8.62 | 41.10% | 2.11% | ― | ― | |
53 Neutral | $754.45M | -2.27 | -27.34% | ― | 13.89% | -899.50% |
* Financial Sector Average
JCAP
Jefferson Capital, Inc.
20.50
2.63
14.69%
PRAA
Pra Group
19.84
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16.02%
OMF
OneMain Holdings
57.42
15.98
38.55%
YRD
Yiren Digital
1.91
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-64.23%
FINV
FinVolution Group
5.11
-2.24
-30.50%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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