Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP)
NASDAQ:JCAP
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Jefferson Capital, Inc.
(NASDAQ:JCAP)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$20.00
▼(-6.02% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial quality—strong reported profitability but materially weakened 2025 cash generation and elevated leverage. Attractive valuation (low P/E and solid yield) and a generally positive earnings-call outlook on collections, leverage, and liquidity help offset weak technical momentum and cost/macro risks.
Positive Factors
Profitability & Revenue Growth
JCAP has demonstrated durable income-statement strength: material revenue expansion and very high operating and net margins in 2025 indicate the core collections model can generate attractive operating profits. High margins create a structural buffer for reinvestment and returns, supporting long‑term earnings power even if collection rates moderate.
Negative Factors
Collapse in Free Cash Flow
The near‑complete collapse in free cash flow materially raises durability concerns: earnings are not converting to cash on a consistent basis, increasing reliance on external financing or revolver draws to fund purchases and returns. If cash conversion does not normalize, liquidity and capital allocation plans (purchases, dividends, buybacks) become riskier over the medium term.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability & Revenue Growth
JCAP has demonstrated durable income-statement strength: material revenue expansion and very high operating and net margins in 2025 indicate the core collections model can generate attractive operating profits. High margins create a structural buffer for reinvestment and returns, supporting long‑term earnings power even if collection rates moderate.
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Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$909.42M
Dividend Yield2.11%
Average Volume (3M)238.35K
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.7
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth90.41%
EPS Growth65.95%
CountryUS
Employees1,205
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)20.60
Shares Outstanding55,418,470
10 Day Avg. Volume292,309
30 Day Avg. Volume238,350
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)1.09
P/FCF Ratio2.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.58
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.93
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.00Price Target Upside17.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$691.36M
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America. The company primarily purchases portfolios of previously charged-off consumer receivables at d...
How the Company Makes Money
JCAP primarily makes money by (1) purchasing portfolios of charged-off consumer receivables at a discount to their face value and (2) collecting more than its purchase price and related servicing/operating costs over time. Revenue is generated as ...
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial results: record collections and revenue, sector-leading cash efficiency, improved leverage (1.79x), strong adjusted cash EBITDA growth, active capital returns (dividend and share repurchase), and expanded revolver capacity. These positives were balanced by meaningful increases in legal-channel and operating expenses (core costs +86% YoY), a quarter-over-quarter slowdown in portfolio purchases versus the prior year period, and macro headwinds—elevated delinquency, rising insolvencies, weaker personal savings, and structural risks in auto finance—that drive both higher portfolio supply and increased collection/legal costs. While the macro backdrop introduces risk and legal-related costs are expected to remain elevated, the company demonstrated strong execution, liquidity and disciplined capital allocation. Overall, the positives (growth, efficiency, liquidity, returns) materially outweigh the challenges, but ongoing legal expense and deployment-replacement execution will be important to monitor.Positive Updates
Record Collections
Generated record collections of $310 million for the quarter, up 19% year-over-year; $54.5 million of collections attributable to the Bluestem portfolio and $31 million attributable to the Conn's portfolio.
Negative Updates
Rising Operating and Core Costs
Operating expenses were $96 million, up 47% year-over-year. Core costs rose to $17.3 million, an 86% increase year-over-year, driven by increased legal channel volumes and upfront legal expense to support future collections.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Collections
Generated record collections of $310 million for the quarter, up 19% year-over-year; $54.5 million of collections attributable to the Bluestem portfolio and $31 million attributable to the Conn's portfolio.
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Company Guidance
Management’s guidance emphasized disciplined deployment and liquidity priorities: they target a long‑term leverage range of 2.0–2.5x while net debt to adjusted cash EBITDA improved to 1.79x as of March 31; estimated remaining collections (ERC) were $3.4 billion (up 18% YoY) with 52% expected by 2027 and $1.1 billion expected to be collected in the next 12 months, and based on Q1 purchase multiples they’d need to deploy roughly $563 million globally over the next 12 months to replace runoff. As of March 31 they had $353 million of deployments locked via forward flows, $216 million contracted for the next 12 months and committed forward flows were up ~28% vs. 12/31; liquidity was bolstered by a $150 million revolver increase to $1.15 billion (two banks added $75 million each) with $254 million drawn and $300 million capacity earmarked to repay 2026 bonds (which they may keep outstanding to capture a 6% coupon). Capital allocation priorities include continued portfolio purchases (Q1 purchases $115M vs. $175M a year ago), a $0.24 quarterly dividend (4.6% annualized as of April), opportunistic buybacks (3M shares repurchased for $59M), and an expectation that core costs will remain ~ $17.3M; management pointed to strong operating metrics—collections $310M (+19% YoY), revenue $176M (+14% YoY), adjusted cash EBITDA $235M (+12% YoY), adjusted pretax income $58M and adjusted pretax ROE 50.8%—and a cash efficiency ratio of 73% (68.1% excl. Bluestem/Conn’s) as the basis for that guidance.Jefferson Capital, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2019 | Dec 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 634.79M | 613.29M | 433.30M | 323.07M | 45.09M | 31.21M |
| Gross Profit | 450.72M | 415.58M | 308.40M | 238.44M | 41.10M | 29.50M |
| EBITDA | 263.10M | 329.47M | 158.06M | 121.22M | 59.17M | 60.01M |
| Net Income | 161.38M | 187.97M | 105.30M | 111.52M | 44.41M | 54.37M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.08B | 2.09B | 1.65B | 1.12B | 812.78M | 590.41M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 26.25M | 47.55M | 35.51M | 14.37M | 3.28M | 8.71M |
| Total Debt | 1.43B | 1.71B | 1.19B | 770.93M | 202.79M | 24.61M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.64B | 1.61B | 1.27B | 811.78M | 223.90M | 42.54M |
| Stockholders Equity | 442.88M | 476.13M | 382.53M | 274.79M | 588.87M | 547.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 255.83M | 267.73M | 162.00M | 118.99M | -180.21M | -281.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 256.77M | 268.81M | 168.21M | 120.22M | -13.63M | -6.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -349.73M | -401.94M | -542.37M | -403.41M | -321.31M | -241.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 114.16M | 149.70M | 388.82M | 289.86M | -4.17M | 34.97M |
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Risk Analysis
Jefferson Capital, Inc. disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Jefferson Capital, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $1.26B | 3.78 | 13.57% | 5.20% | 0.84% | -12.02% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $6.30B | 7.99 | 23.62% | 6.07% | 7.80% | 42.28% | |
62 Neutral | $909.42M | 5.65 | 36.53% | 2.11% | 90.41% | 65.95% | |
60 Neutral | $117.91M | 7.55 | 0.54% | 10.37% | -1.41% | -98.13% | |
51 Neutral | $550.75M | -1.97 | -26.42% | ― | 12.38% | -498.81% |
* Financial Sector Average
JCAP
Jefferson Capital, Inc.
16.41
-1.46
-8.20%
PRAA
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13.50%
YRD
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1.35
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FINV
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5.16
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-36.75%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.