Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)
NYSE:IPI
Top Page
Intrepid Potash
(NYSE:IPI)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$46.00
▲(5.02% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/03/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial resilience (very low leverage) and improved cash flow, supported by positive operational momentum communicated on the earnings call and a constructive technical trend. These positives are tempered by still-volatile profitability and a relatively high P/E valuation with no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Very low leverage / strong balance sheet
Extremely low leverage materially reduces financial risk and preserves flexibility through commodity cycles. This balance sheet strength enables funding of sustaining capex, Trio expansions, lithium DFS work, or opportunistic asset purchases/sales without overreliance on market financing, supporting durable strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
Volatile profitability and margins
Pronounced swings in profitability indicate sensitivity to commodity prices, operational disruptions, and seasonality. This volatility complicates long-term planning, increases risk for capital allocation and investment returns, and means recent improvements may reverse if market or operational headwinds reemerge.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very low leverage / strong balance sheet
Extremely low leverage materially reduces financial risk and preserves flexibility through commodity cycles. This balance sheet strength enables funding of sustaining capex, Trio expansions, lithium DFS work, or opportunistic asset purchases/sales without overreliance on market financing, supporting durable strategic optionality.
Read all positive factors
Intrepid Potash (IPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$587.22M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)135.65K
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.3
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue Growth8.88%
EPS Growth-349.99%
CountryUS
Employees468
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.49
Shares Outstanding13,406,913
10 Day Avg. Volume163,966
30 Day Avg. Volume135,650
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.31
Price to Book (P/B)0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)1.21
P/FCF Ratio14.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.47
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.64
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.00Price Target Upside-42.92% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$247.28M
Intrepid Potash Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Intrepid Potash, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the extraction and production of the potash in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Potash, Trio, and Oilfield Solutions. The Potash segment of...
How the Company Makes Money
Intrepid Potash makes money primarily by selling fertilizer and related mineral products it produces from its mining and processing operations. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Potash (potassium chloride) sales to agricultural customers and di...
Intrepid Potash Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial story: strong 2025 results (nearly +80% adjusted EBITDA growth), record Trio performance, meaningful volume growth, improved unit economics, progress on a sizeable lithium resource, excellent safety, and near-term asset monetization potential. Notable near-term challenges include constrained potash production due to HB start-up delays and below-average evaporation, a year-over-year potash pricing decline (~$25/ton), an ongoing reduction in oilfield sales with planned disposition, and remaining uncertainty around lithium project unit economics and the deferred AMAX cavern decision. On balance, the strong financial and operational momentum and multiple growth avenues (Trio, lithium, asset sales) outweigh the operational and commodity-specific headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Income Performance
Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $63.0 million, representing an almost 80% improvement versus 2024; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $18.1 million and Q4 adjusted net income was $6.5 million, both materially higher than the prior year.
Negative Updates
Potash Production Shortfall and Near-Term Guidance
Full-year 2025 potash production was 280,000 tons, impacted by a delayed start-up at HB. 2026 potash production is guided to 270,000–285,000 tons (a slight decline versus 2025), and management expects modestly degraded unit economics for potash in 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Income Performance
Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $63.0 million, representing an almost 80% improvement versus 2024; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $18.1 million and Q4 adjusted net income was $6.5 million, both materially higher than the prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Intrepid's forward guidance includes Q1 2026 potash sales of 95,000–105,000 tons at an average net realized price of $345–$355/ton and Trio sales of 105,000–115,000 tons at $380–$390/ton; full-year 2026 production is guided to potash 270,000–285,000 tons (flat to slightly down vs. 2025) and Trio 285,000–300,000 tons (≈7% year‑over‑year increase at the midpoint), with a 2027 potash target of 300,000–310,000 tons. Management expects modestly worse potash unit economics in 2026 while Trio COGS/ton should modestly improve, plans $40M–$50M of capital spending (primarily sustaining capital at the East mine and a new Wendover primary pond expected to begin contributing in 2028), and is pursuing the Wendover lithium project with a maiden measured & indicated resource of ~119,000 tons LCE, an assumed 5,000 t/yr capacity (≈25‑year life) and a goal of a definitive feasibility study later in 2026; separately, a potential South Ranch sale carries an $8M deposit and may close in H1 2026.Intrepid Potash Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 298.33M | 254.69M | 279.08M | 337.57M | 270.33M |
| Gross Profit | 52.21M | 29.08M | 36.85M | 141.41M | 55.76M |
| EBITDA | 58.68M | 18.76M | -5.19M | 133.60M | 77.50M |
| Net Income | 11.19M | -212.84M | -35.67M | 72.22M | 249.83M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 632.18M | 594.52M | 768.57M | 794.20M | 766.89M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 83.54M | 42.30M | 7.04M | 24.47M | 36.45M |
| Total Debt | 3.29M | 4.25M | 6.19M | 2.21M | 1.88M |
| Total Liabilities | 140.75M | 120.13M | 84.14M | 79.13M | 103.49M |
| Stockholders Equity | 491.43M | 474.39M | 684.43M | 715.08M | 663.40M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 25.54M | 33.59M | -21.83M | 20.13M | 59.28M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 55.78M | 72.50M | 43.23M | 88.82M | 79.07M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.27M | -29.53M | -59.55M | -79.18M | -14.82M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -276.00K | -5.72M | 1.89M | -27.70M | -47.28M |
Intrepid Potash Technical Analysis
Positive
43.80
Price Trends
37.53
Positive
32.49
Positive
31.69
Positive
Market Momentum
1.74
Positive
56.63
Neutral
54.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.57, above the 50-day MA of 37.53, and above the 200-day MA of 31.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IPI.
Intrepid Potash Risk Analysis
Intrepid Potash disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intrepid Potash reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Intrepid Potash Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $587.22M | 32.26 | 2.30% | ― | 8.88% | -349.99% | |
68 Neutral | $8.31B | 14.14 | 9.96% | 3.70% | 3.82% | 239.39% | |
67 Neutral | $1.33B | 10.98 | 32.82% | 12.33% | 16.52% | 141.96% | |
62 Neutral | $3.71B | -6.71 | -27.23% | 4.52% | -3.93% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $6.76B | 32.61 | 3.77% | 3.36% | 1.77% | -8.72% | |
49 Neutral | $2.22B | -0.78 | -61.24% | 16.68% | -13.42% | -136.59% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
IPI
Intrepid Potash
43.80
18.42
72.58%
UAN
CVR Partners
126.00
67.70
116.12%
FMC
FMC
17.75
-16.03
-47.45%
MOS
Mosaic Co
26.17
3.30
14.45%
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
63.88
13.71
27.32%
ICL
Icl
5.24
-0.12
-2.26%
Intrepid Potash Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Intrepid Potash Divests Noncore Assets to Refocus Operations
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Intrepid Potash, Inc. amended its existing credit facility, appointing BMO Bank N.A. as successor administrative agent, extending the maturity date to March 30, 2031, and revising financial covenants and disposition-related prov...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Intrepid Potash CFO Departs; Interim Finance Leader Appointed
Neutral
Mar 16, 2026
Intrepid Potash, Inc. announced that Chief Financial Officer Matthew Preston departed his role effective March 11, 2026, after a tenure that began in 2008 and included a key leadership role during the company’s 2024 management transition. Th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.