ICL Group (ICL)
NYSE:ICL
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Icl
(NYSE:ICL)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
â–²(24.05% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/10/26
ICL scores middle-of-the-road: financial performance is constrained by the post-2022 earnings and free-cash-flow downshift despite a decent balance sheet, while technicals remain weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is not especially attractive at a high P/E even with a ~3.37% yield, and the latest earnings call adds some support via constructive 2026 EBITDA guidance but with meaningful cost and currency headwinds.
Positive Factors
Potash operational recovery
Sustained potash volume growth and higher realized prices underpin durable cash generation from a core commodity franchise. Production reliability gains (Spain record) reduce operational risk and support meeting guided 2026 volumes, anchoring earnings in the near-to-medium term.
Negative Factors
Sulfur cost surge
A multi-fold increase in sulfur feedstock elevates cost of goods for phosphate-based products and compresses specialty phosphate margins. Because sulfur is a structural input, prolonged elevated prices materially weaken segment profitability and constrain consolidated EBITDA unless passed fully to customers.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Potash operational recovery
Sustained potash volume growth and higher realized prices underpin durable cash generation from a core commodity franchise. Production reliability gains (Spain record) reduce operational risk and support meeting guided 2026 volumes, anchoring earnings in the near-to-medium term.
Read all positive factors
Icl (ICL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.22B
Dividend Yield3.36%
Average Volume (3M)1.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth4.56%
EPS Growth-44.50%
CountryUS
Employees12,349
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.17
Shares Outstanding1,290,672,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,356,515
30 Day Avg. Volume1,862,389
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.75
Price to Book (P/B)1.23
Price to Sales (P/S)1.03
P/FCF Ratio56.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.80Price Target Upside10.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.53B
Icl Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ICL Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty minerals and chemicals company worldwide. It operates in four segments: Industrial Products, Potash, Phosphate Solutions, and Innovative Ag Solutions (IAS). The Industrial Prod...
How the Company Makes Money
ICL makes money by producing and selling mineral- and chemistry-based products across its operating segments, with revenue largely tied to sales volumes and market pricing for its products, plus value-added margins from specialty formulations.
1)...
Icl Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive operational and strategic momentum: solid Q4 and full-year top-line growth, improved consolidated EBITDA, strong potash performance, successful strategic M&A (Bartek, Lavie Bio), and clearer long-term positioning around specialty crop nutrition and specialty food solutions. These positives are balanced by significant cost and one-time headwinds — notably a sharp rise in sulfur prices that pressures phosphate margins, material Q4 restructuring and impairment charges, legal water-extraction fees recognized in Q4, and currency (shekel) strength which reduces the net benefit of higher commodity prices. Management emphasized active mitigation, portfolio refocusing and disciplined capital allocation, and provided constructive 2026 guidance (consolidated EBITDA $1.4–1.6 billion) that reflects both opportunities and risks.Positive Updates
Quarterly Sales Growth
Q4 sales of $1.701 billion, up 6% year-over-year; all four segments delivered sales growth.
Negative Updates
Sulfur Cost Surge Hitting Phosphate Margins
Specialty phosphate EBITDA was impacted materially by higher sulfur costs. Sulfur surged from around $140–$150 to more than $500 (1.5 years), causing margin pressure and expectation that high sulfur costs will persist into 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Sales Growth
Q4 sales of $1.701 billion, up 6% year-over-year; all four segments delivered sales growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ICL guided 2026 consolidated EBITDA of $1.4–$1.6 billion (all four segments), potash sales volumes of 4.5–4.7 million metric tons and an annual adjusted tax rate of ~30%; management said the range reflects expected higher potash volumes/prices partially offset by headwinds such as very high sulfur costs and a stronger shekel. For context, ICL reported 2025 consolidated sales of $7.153 billion (+5% YoY) and EBITDA of $1.488 billion, potash full‑year sales of $1.714 billion with EBITDA of $552 million (Q4 potash price $348 CIF/tonne; Q4 potash volume ~1.2 million tonnes, +15% YoY), operating cash flow of $1.056 billion for 2025, available liquidity of $1.6 billion and a net‑debt/adjusted‑EBITDA ratio of 1.3x.Icl Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.15B | 6.84B | 7.54B | 10.02B | 6.96B |
| Gross Profit | 2.19B | 2.26B | 2.67B | 5.03B | 2.61B |
| EBITDA | 1.32B | 1.38B | 1.67B | 4.04B | 1.72B |
| Net Income | 226.00M | 407.00M | 647.00M | 2.16B | 783.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.41B | 11.32B | 11.63B | 11.75B | 11.08B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 496.00M | 442.00M | 592.00M | 508.00M | 564.00M |
| Total Debt | 2.76B | 2.29B | 2.69B | 2.82B | 3.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.17B | 5.33B | 5.59B | 6.04B | 6.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.98B | 5.72B | 5.77B | 5.46B | 4.53B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 130.00M | 650.00M | 815.00M | 1.38B | 454.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 954.00M | 1.36B | 1.59B | 2.13B | 1.06B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -930.00M | -711.00M | -863.00M | -747.00M | -579.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -78.00M | -724.00M | -712.00M | -1.42B | -244.00M |
Icl Technical Analysis
Negative
5.24
Price Trends
5.26
Negative
5.28
Negative
5.74
Negative
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
49.02
Neutral
41.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ICL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.23, below the 50-day MA of 5.26, and below the 200-day MA of 5.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ICL.
Icl Risk Analysis
Icl disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Icl reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Icl Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $17.67B | 8.14 | 35.17% | 2.56% | 20.85% | 46.79% | |
73 Outperform | $507.90M | 18.94 | 2.85% | ― | 9.55% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $1.33B | 6.71 | 40.08% | 12.33% | 19.00% | 61.11% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $7.05B | -7.86 | 9.96% | 3.70% | 8.36% | 207.85% | |
59 Neutral | $8.22B | -25.24 | 3.77% | 3.36% | 4.56% | -44.50% | |
45 Neutral | $1.68B | -1.92 | -83.04% | 16.68% | -16.63% | -865.93% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
ICL
Icl
6.50
-0.12
-1.83%
CF
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124.48
38.74
45.19%
UAN
CVR Partners
132.19
59.26
81.26%
FMC
FMC
13.11
-23.45
-64.14%
IPI
Intrepid Potash
43.75
7.44
20.49%
MOS
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21.79
-11.42
-34.38%
Icl Corporate Events
ICL Secures S&P Reaffirmation of BBB- Rating with Stable Outlook
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, ICL reported that SP reaffirmed its long-term issuer rating at BBB- with a stable outlook, while also maintaining the company’s Israeli local rating at ilAA with a stable outlook. The filing noted that this Form 6-K is incor...
ICL Group Secures Fitch Reaffirmation of BBB- Rating With Stable Outlook
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, ICL Group Ltd. reported that Fitch Ratings reaffirmed the company’s long-term issuer default rating at BBB- with a Stable Outlook. The confirmation of the investment-grade rating supports ICL’s standing in global cre...
ICL Group Updates Investors With New Company Overview and Risk Disclosure
Mar 11, 2026
On March 11, 2026, ICL Group Ltd. filed a Form 6-K for March 2026, notifying investors that it has released a new Company Overview presentation and related business information. The filing clarifies that the materials are furnished, not filed, and...
ICL Group Names SolarEdge Executive Asaf Alperovitz as New CFO Amid Planned Retirement
Mar 10, 2026
On March 10, 2026, ICL Group Ltd. reported a planned chief financial officer transition, announcing that long-serving CFO Aviram Lahav will conclude his tenure and retire on June 15, 2026. The company’s board approved the appointment of expe...
ICL Details March 2026 $60 Million Dividend Terms and Tax Treatment
Mar 9, 2026
ICL Group Ltd. reported a supplemental update on March 9, 2026, specifying the details of a previously announced approximately $60 million dividend distribution from earnings. The company set the dividend at $0.04650 per share for payments in U.S....
ICL Posts Higher 2025 Sales, Takes Strategic Charges as It Refocuses on Specialty Growth
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, ICL reported that fourth-quarter 2025 sales rose 6% year on year to $1.7 billion, with adjusted EBITDA up 10% to $380 million, even as reported operating income swung to a loss due to $239 million in unusual charges tied to s...
ICL Group Declares $60 Million Cash Dividend for March 2026 Payout
Feb 18, 2026
On February 17, 2026, ICL Group Ltd.’s board of directors approved a cash dividend of $0.04650 per share, totaling about $60 million, with some shareholders to receive payment in New Israeli Shekels based on the Bank of Israel’s repres...
ICL Group Files Q4 2025 Update, Sharpens Focus on Potash, Phosphate and Portfolio Optimization
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, ICL Group filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. SEC, furnishing its fourth-quarter 2025 investor presentation and incorporating this report by reference into its existing Form S-8 registration statement and its Israeli shelf prospec...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.