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Cf Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
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Cf Industries Holdings (CF) AI Stock Analysis

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CF

Cf Industries Holdings

(NYSE:CF)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$106.00
▲(14.32% Upside)
CF Industries Holdings scores well due to strong financial performance and strategic initiatives. The company's robust operational efficiency and commitment to sustainability are significant strengths, while technical indicators and valuation suggest a balanced risk-reward profile. Potential challenges include ammonia price volatility and trade policy changes, which investors should monitor.
Positive Factors
Decarbonization Efforts
The start-up of the CO2 dehydration and compression facility at CF's Donaldsonville Complex is seen as a positive step towards the company's decarbonization goals.
Financial Performance
EBITDA and free cash flow projections for CF are anticipated to improve significantly, providing a strong financial outlook.
Strategic Partnerships
CF's collaboration with ExxonMobil for CO2 transport and storage is a strategic partnership that enhances its carbon management capabilities.
Negative Factors
Investment Concerns
The stock has been fighting the 'as good as it gets' debate, and some investors are not sold on the under-construction Blue Point low carbon ammonia JV.
Market Dynamics
It is believed to be difficult for CF to grow its EBITDA or its multiple in an environment of flat-lower nitrogen product prices and higher natural gas prices.
Tariff Policies
Uncertainties over the direction of US tariff policies have led to a change in investment rating on CF.

Cf Industries Holdings (CF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyCF Industries Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of nitrogen-based fertilizers, including ammonia, urea, and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) solutions. The company operates large-scale production facilities that convert natural gas into nitrogen products, which are then distributed to wholesalers, retailers, and international markets. Revenue is influenced by global agricultural demand, natural gas prices, and the company's ability to efficiently manage logistics and distribution. Key partnerships with agricultural distributors and strategic contracts for natural gas supply also play significant roles in stabilizing and enhancing CF Industries' revenue streams.

Cf Industries Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Net Sales by Segment
Net Sales by Segment
Reveals the revenue generated from each business segment, highlighting which areas are driving growth and contributing most to the company's top line.
Chart InsightsCF Industries' net sales reveal a mixed performance across segments. Ammonia and UAN sales have shown recovery in early 2025, aligning with the company's strategic focus on operational excellence and robust demand. However, the 'Other' segment continues to face challenges. The earnings call highlights strong financial performance and strategic initiatives like the Blue Point joint venture, but also warns of potential volatility in ammonia prices and trade policy challenges. The company's commitment to shareholder returns and carbon capture projects positions it well for future growth despite these risks.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Cf Industries Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 15.58%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance with increased earnings and robust cash flow, driven by high operational efficiency and strategic growth initiatives. However, concerns were raised about potential volatility in ammonia prices, trade policy challenges, and capital inflation risks.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
CF Industries reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $312 million, or $1.85 per diluted share, marking a 60% increase compared to the first quarter of 2024. Earnings per share were approximately 80% higher, reflecting a significantly lower share count.
Robust Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
The company generated adjusted EBITDA of $644 million and returned $530 million to shareholders in Q1 2025, including $434 million repurchasing 5.4 million shares. A new $2 billion share repurchase program was authorized, set to run through the end of 2029.
Operational Excellence and Strategic Growth Initiatives
Production network operated at 100% utilization rate with over 2.6 million tons of gross ammonia produced. Nearing completion of carbon capture and sequestration project at Donaldsonville Complex, expected to start in the second half of 2025. Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui presents a compelling growth opportunity.
Positive Market Outlook
Strong global nitrogen demand driven by low corn stocks and high fertilizer demand. USDA reported corn planting expectations of 95 million acres in the U.S., with low channel inventories supporting prices.
Negative Updates
Potential Volatility in Ammonia Prices
Expected startup of new ammonia capacity in North America may bring more volatility to global ammonia prices as trade flows adjust.
Challenges in Global Trade and Tariffs
Russian fertilizer continues to enter the U.S. market tariff-free, creating trade policy challenges and potential impacts on global trade flows.
Cost Inflation and Capital Expenditures
Concerns about potential capital inflation and strong demand for good labor as the company invests in new projects like Blue Point.
Company Guidance
In the CF Industries Q1 2025 earnings call, the company provided robust financial guidance and strategic updates. CF Industries reported an adjusted EBITDA of $644 million for Q1 2025, reflecting strong performance amid favorable global nitrogen industry conditions. The company announced its ongoing commitment to shareholder returns, having returned $5 billion to shareholders since 2022, and authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program to run through 2029. The production network achieved a 100% utilization rate, producing over 2.6 million tons of gross ammonia, with projections for approximately 10 million tons in 2025. The Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui was highlighted as a significant growth opportunity, positioning CF Industries to meet the increasing demand for low-carbon ammonia. Furthermore, the company is nearing completion of its carbon capture and sequestration project at the Donaldsonville Complex, targeting 45Q tax credit generation on up to 2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually. CF Industries anticipates strong cash generation and continues to expect a tightening global nitrogen supply-demand balance through the end of the decade.

Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CF Industries demonstrates strong profitability with solid margins and efficient operations. Despite a decrease in revenue, the company maintains robust cash flows and a healthy balance sheet with manageable leverage.
Income Statement
78
Positive
The income statement shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin of 36% and a net profit margin of 22% TTM. While revenue has decreased by approximately 8% annually, the company maintains solid EBIT and EBITDA margins at 23% and 36% respectively, indicating efficient operations. However, the decline in revenue growth is a concern for future stability.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.69, indicating manageable leverage. Return on equity stands at 28%, highlighting effective use of equity. The equity ratio of 36% ensures a stable financial foundation, though slightly lower than previous periods, suggesting a minor increase in liabilities compared to equity growth.
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
Cash flow metrics are robust, with operating cash flow to net income ratio over 1.8 indicating strong cash generation capability. Free cash flow grew by 6% TTM, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is notably high at 1.39, emphasizing substantial liquidity and financial flexibility.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.94B6.63B11.19B6.54B4.12B
Gross Profit2.06B2.54B5.86B2.39B801.00M
EBITDA2.81B3.27B6.28B3.07B1.53B
Net Income1.22B1.52B3.35B1.26B432.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.47B14.38B13.31B12.38B12.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.61B2.03B2.32B1.63B683.00M
Total Debt3.25B3.23B3.23B3.72B4.22B
Total Liabilities5.87B6.00B5.46B6.34B6.42B
Stockholders Equity4.99B5.72B5.05B3.21B2.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.75B2.26B3.39B2.35B922.00M
Operating Cash Flow2.27B2.76B3.85B2.87B1.23B
Investing Cash Flow-469.00M-1.68B-440.00M-466.00M-299.00M
Financing Cash Flow-2.21B-1.37B-2.70B-1.46B-542.00M

Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price92.72
Price Trends
50DMA
93.97
Negative
100DMA
86.13
Positive
200DMA
85.56
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.25
Positive
RSI
48.21
Neutral
STOCH
52.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 92.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 93.86, below the 50-day MA of 93.97, and above the 200-day MA of 85.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CF.

Cf Industries Holdings Risk Analysis

Cf Industries Holdings disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cf Industries Holdings reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
If we fail to successfully enter into or close collaborations, joint ventures, partnerships or acquisitions, or successfully manage such transactions, it could adversely affect our business and growth opportunities. Q4, 2024
2.
Failure of technologies to perform, develop or be available as expected could adversely affect our ability to produce low-carbon ammonia and our financial results or reputation. Q4, 2024
3.
Failure, inadequacy, breach of, or unauthorized access to, our information technology systems or those of third-party service providers or customers could negatively affect our business and operations. Q4, 2024

Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$15.02B12.3526.14%2.18%0.66%25.75%
75
Outperform
$1.01B11.5028.37%7.33%8.15%77.68%
69
Neutral
$0.0030.663.09%2.43%-13.37%-50.63%
64
Neutral
$7.95B20.436.70%2.99%-3.48%-18.34%
58
Neutral
HK$16.45B4.32-4.93%4.59%-5.74%-81.55%
56
Neutral
$4.75B48.252.88%6.13%1.16%-92.85%
51
Neutral
$0.0081.914.98%4.27%-2.05%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CF
Cf Industries Holdings
92.72
21.16
29.57%
UAN
CVR Partners
96.81
29.81
44.49%
FMC
FMC
37.84
-20.52
-35.16%
MOS
Mosaic Co
35.68
9.89
38.35%
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
61.37
-4.58
-6.94%
ICL
Icl
6.03
2.27
60.37%

Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
CF Industries Announces Leadership Transition Plan
Neutral
Jul 24, 2025

On July 24, 2025, CF Industries Holdings announced the retirement of Ashraf K. Malik, Senior Vice President of Manufacturing and Distribution, effective April 1, 2026. Trevor Williams, with over 30 years of experience in the nitrogen and chemicals manufacturing industry, will succeed Malik. Williams’ extensive background in safety and leadership is expected to support CF Industries’ ongoing commitment to operational excellence.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Buy with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
CF Industries Unveils Low-Carbon Ammonia Strategy
Positive
Jun 24, 2025

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. announced during its Investor Day on June 24, 2025, that it is advancing its strategic plans to produce low-carbon ammonia and develop carbon capture and sequestration projects. These initiatives are part of the company’s efforts to transition to a hydrogen economy and meet greenhouse gas reduction targets. The announcement highlights the company’s focus on sustainable growth and its commitment to addressing environmental challenges, which could impact its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Hold with a $81.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CF Industries Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting, Elects Directors
Neutral
May 8, 2025

On May 6, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. held its annual meeting of shareholders, where various matters were voted upon. All nominated directors were elected to serve for a one-year term, while the compensation of the company’s named executive officers was approved. Additionally, KPMG LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. A shareholder proposal regarding the approval requirement for excessive golden parachutes was not passed.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 05, 2025