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Cf Industries Holdings
(NYSE:CF)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$132.00
â–²(5.54% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability and free cash flow) and a favorable earnings-call outlook (raised mid-cycle guidance, disciplined capital returns). Valuation looks supportive with a low P/E and a moderate dividend, while technical signals are mixed with some near-term weakness despite an intact longer-term trend.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained high operating cash flow and meaningful free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility. Over a 2–6 month horizon this supports continued dividends, buybacks and selective reinvestment while buffering cyclical revenue swings and funding strategic projects without excessive new leverage.
Negative Factors
Cyclicality and margin volatility
CF's results are tied to commodity fertilizer prices and natural gas feedstock costs, producing large swings in revenue and margins. This structural cyclicality reduces predictability of earnings and cash flow over crop cycles and energy-market shifts, complicating multi-period planning.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained high operating cash flow and meaningful free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility. Over a 2–6 month horizon this supports continued dividends, buybacks and selective reinvestment while buffering cyclical revenue swings and funding strategic projects without excessive new leverage.
Read all positive factors
Cf Industries Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Production Volume by Segment
Indicates the output levels across different segments, providing insight into operational efficiency and capacity utilization.
Indicates the output levels across different segments, providing insight into operational efficiency and capacity utilization.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCf Industries Holdings (CF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.82B
Dividend Yield1.75%
Average Volume (3M)2.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)-0.19
Revenue Growth20.04%
EPS Growth76.29%
CountryUS
Employees2,900
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)13.52
Shares Outstanding151,338,130
10 Day Avg. Volume2,230,187
30 Day Avg. Volume2,553,507
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)2.59
Price to Sales (P/S)1.77
P/FCF Ratio6.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$124.36Price Target Upside-0.56% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)15.51
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.20B
Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global producer and distributor of hydrogen and nitrogen-based products. These essential chemicals serve a variety of purposes worldwide, including energy generation, agricultural fertilization, environmental emis...
How the Company Makes Money
CF Industries makes money primarily by producing nitrogen-based products and selling them at market prices through a mix of direct customer sales and distribution channels. The company’s largest revenue stream comes from nitrogen fertilizers (nota...
Cf Industries Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, robust cash generation, significant shareholder returns (repurchases and dividend increase), and an upgraded mid‑cycle EBITDA outlook supported by strategic initiatives (BluePoint, carbon capture, DEF). These positives were balanced against near‑term demand seasonality and price volatility in Q2, localized asset disruption (Yazoo City) with related impairments, and rising construction/logistics costs plus geopolitical and LNG‑supply driven uncertainties. On balance, management presented a confident long‑term thesis (structural tightening, higher mid‑cycle earnings) while acknowledging short‑term headwinds and cost pressures.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Results (H1 and Q2 2026)
Reported H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion and Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion; company-reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $1.3 billion ($8.71 per diluted share) for H1 and $727 million ($4.73 per diluted share) for Q2.
Negative Updates
Q2 Demand Softness and Seasonality
Q2 experienced a 'buyer’s holiday' in several regions where customers deferred purchases (Southern Hemisphere, parts of Asia and Australia), producing temporarily softer demand and volatile pricing; North American purchases slowed in June, drawing inventories to very low levels before July fill programs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Results (H1 and Q2 2026)
Reported H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion and Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion; company-reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $1.3 billion ($8.71 per diluted share) for H1 and $727 million ($4.73 per diluted share) for Q2.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised its mid‑cycle outlook and provided detailed financial and operational guidance: baseline mid‑cycle EBITDA of ≈$2.9B and free cash flow ≈$1.7B, with upside to ≈$3.3B EBITDA by 2030 (≈+$400M, largely ~$300M from BluePoint and ~$100M from carbon capture); company reported H1 adjusted EBITDA $2.2B and Q2 adjusted EBITDA $1.2B (H1 net earnings $1.3B, $8.71/share; Q2 net earnings $727M, $4.73/share), trailing‑12‑month net cash from operations ≈$3.0B and FCF ≈$1.8B, returned ≈$1.3B to shareholders (repurchased 10.6M shares for $958M; $314M dividends) and the board raised the quarterly dividend 20% to $0.60/share; 2026 capital expenditures are projected at ≈$1.3B (CF share ≈$950M) as BluePoint construction begins in August with long‑lead items ordered and roughly half of BluePoint spend fixed, Yazoo City is expected to resume in 1H‑2027, operating performance remains strong (available ammonia capacity operated at ~98% in H1; TTM incident rate 0.16 per 200k hours), and low‑carbon sales represented ~10% of ammonia volumes in H1 earning >$20/ton premium.Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.74B | 7.08B | 5.94B | 6.63B | 11.19B | 6.54B |
| Gross Profit | 3.29B | 2.72B | 2.06B | 2.65B | 5.89B | 2.36B |
| EBITDA | 3.95B | 3.29B | 2.83B | 3.27B | 6.28B | 2.61B |
| Net Income | 2.10B | 1.46B | 1.22B | 1.52B | 3.35B | 917.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.10B | 14.09B | 13.47B | 14.38B | 13.31B | 12.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.48B | 1.98B | 1.61B | 2.03B | 2.32B | 1.63B |
| Total Debt | 3.61B | 3.95B | 3.25B | 3.23B | 3.23B | 3.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.18B | 6.31B | 5.87B | 6.00B | 5.46B | 6.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.75B | 4.84B | 4.99B | 5.72B | 5.05B | 3.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.91B | 1.80B | 1.75B | 2.26B | 3.39B | 2.35B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.98B | 2.75B | 2.27B | 2.76B | 3.85B | 2.87B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.04B | -933.00M | -469.00M | -1.68B | -440.00M | -466.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.14B | -1.48B | -2.21B | -1.37B | -2.70B | -1.46B |
Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
125.07
Price Trends
114.53
Positive
118.22
Positive
104.09
Positive
Market Momentum
0.27
Positive
52.34
Neutral
74.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 125.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 120.30, above the 50-day MA of 114.53, and above the 200-day MA of 104.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CF.
Cf Industries Holdings Risk Analysis
Cf Industries Holdings disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cf Industries Holdings reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $17.82B | 8.88 | 40.41% | 1.60% | 20.04% | 76.29% | |
72 Outperform | $1.29B | 8.01 | 51.56% | 9.98% | 17.47% | 82.16% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
57 Neutral | $7.05B | 22.56 | 5.02% | 3.61% | 10.92% | -16.91% | |
53 Neutral | $3.45B | 47.36 | -21.87% | 3.81% | -1.95% | 44.91% | |
46 Neutral | $6.75B | 106.15 | 0.36% | 3.95% | 8.84% | -167.87% | |
45 Neutral | $1.27B | -0.46 | -118.57% | 7.26% | -21.31% | -2884.91% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CF
Cf Industries Holdings
119.72
37.42
45.47%
UAN
CVR Partners
121.11
41.11
51.39%
FMC
FMC
10.12
-27.16
-72.86%
MOS
Mosaic Co
21.14
-10.01
-32.13%
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
59.55
0.11
0.19%
ICL
Icl
5.41
-0.65
-10.71%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.