Cf Industries Holdings (CF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.91B
• Dividend Yield: 2.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.05M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.08
• Revenue Growth: 12.59%
• EPS Growth: 31.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,800
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 2.73
• Shares Outstanding: 153,668,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,644,597
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,054,954
• PEG Ratio: 0.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.77
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.39
• 1Y Price Target: $100.27
• Price Target Upside: -22.61% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.34
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.53B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $146.00 ▲(12.68% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/16/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/16/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability and robust operating/free cash flow with improving leverage) and an attractive valuation (low P/E). Technicals show a strong uptrend but momentum is overextended (high RSI/Stoch), and the earnings outlook includes a notable 2026 EBITDA headwind from the Yazoo outage alongside execution/regulatory uncertainties, partially mitigated by expected insurance proceeds and continued capital returns.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Sustained operating cash flow and strong FCF provide durable financial flexibility: funds ongoing capex, sizable share repurchases, and debt refinancings while absorbing cyclical earnings swings. Over 2–6 months this underpins capital allocation and resilience through commodity cycles.

High margins & returns

Robust margins and elevated ROE (~26%) reflect structural cost/scale advantages in ammonia production and market pricing power when supply is tight. These profitability levels support cash generation and shareholder returns, making earnings less vulnerable to short swings over the medium term.

Progress on low‑carbon platform

Securing FID and partner commitments for Blue Point and advancing CCS (Donaldsonville ramp) create a durable growth and premium product pathway. Successful project execution would diversify revenue, capture low‑carbon premiums, and position CF in emerging decarbonized ammonia markets over the coming years.

Negative Factors

Yazoo City outage

The prolonged outage removes meaningful ammonia capacity (2026 production down ~5.9%), pressuring volumes and near‑term EBITDA. Even with expected insurance proceeds, timing uncertainty and sustained capacity loss can depress revenue and strain logistics and customer allocations across the network for months.

Execution & timing risk on major capex

Large modular projects (Blue Point ~$3.7B total; CF 40% share) expose the company to multi‑year execution, permitting and procurement risk. Delays or cost overruns would defer low‑carbon revenue and extend payback horizons, creating medium‑term uncertainty in cash deployment and project ROI.

Policy/regulatory uncertainty

Unclear rules and incentives for low‑carbon products affect the economics and customer willingness to pay premiums. This regulatory ambiguity can delay commercialization value of decarbonization investments and make projected returns on low‑carbon projects more uncertain over the next several quarters.

Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

CF Industries makes money primarily by producing and selling nitrogen-based products derived from ammonia, which is manufactured using natural gas as a key feedstock and energy source. Its core revenue streams come from sales of nitrogen fertilizers (including ammonia, granular urea, UAN solution, and ammonium nitrate) to agricultural customers and distributors; pricing is generally market-based and influenced by global nitrogen supply/demand dynamics, crop economics, and regional logistics. The company also generates revenue from sales of ammonia and other nitrogen products into industrial markets (e.g., for chemical and emissions-control applications) where applicable. Earnings are driven by the spread between realized selling prices for nitrogen products and production costs (especially natural gas), combined with plant utilization, reliability, and the ability to move product through owned/contracted storage, terminals, and transportation channels to reach customers. Specific partnership details: null.

Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and cash generation support the score (TTM net margin ~20.5%, EBITDA margin ~34.2%, operating cash flow $2.75B and free cash flow $1.80B). Leverage is manageable (debt-to-equity ~0.47) and improved versus earlier years, but results are meaningfully cyclical with margins below the 2022 peak.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rebounded to $7.08B (+5.2% growth) after a weaker 2023–2024 period, while profitability remains strong with ~20.5% net margin and ~34.2% EBITDA margin. That said, margins are well below the 2022 peak (net margin ~29.9%), highlighting meaningful cyclicality in pricing/earnings power for the business.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with debt-to-equity at ~0.47 and equity up to $7.78B, a clear improvement versus 2020–2021 when debt-to-equity was above 1.0. Returns on equity are healthy (~26%), but the balance sheet’s strength is partly tied to cycle-driven profitability and prior years show the company can run with higher leverage when conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is $2.75B and free cash flow is $1.80B (+5.3%), supporting strong financial flexibility. Operating cash flow runs well ahead of net income (~2.5x), though free cash flow conversion is moderate (free cash flow at ~67% of net income), indicating some ongoing reinvestment and/or working-capital swings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.08B	5.94B	6.63B	11.19B	6.54B
Gross Profit	2.72B	2.06B	2.65B	5.89B	2.36B
EBITDA	3.29B	2.83B	3.27B	6.28B	2.61B
Net Income	1.46B	1.22B	1.52B	3.35B	917.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.09B	13.47B	14.38B	13.31B	12.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.98B	1.61B	2.03B	2.32B	1.63B
Total Debt	3.95B	3.25B	3.23B	3.23B	3.72B
Total Liabilities	6.31B	5.87B	6.00B	5.46B	6.34B
Stockholders Equity	4.84B	4.99B	5.72B	5.05B	3.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.80B	1.75B	2.26B	3.39B	2.35B
Operating Cash Flow	2.75B	2.27B	2.76B	3.85B	2.87B
Investing Cash Flow	-933.00M	-469.00M	-1.68B	-440.00M	-466.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.48B	-2.21B	-1.37B	-2.70B	-1.46B

Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 129.57
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 129.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.70, above the 50-day MA of 94.99, and above the 200-day MA of 88.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.80 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.67 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.38 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CF.

Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	76 Outperform	$19.91B	8.62	29.95%	2.56%	12.59%	31.40%
MOS	68 Neutral	$9.31B	14.14	9.96%	3.70%	3.82%	239.39%
UAN	67 Neutral	$1.38B	10.98	32.82%	12.33%	16.52%	141.96%
SMG	62 Neutral	$3.54B	-6.71	-27.23%	4.52%	-3.93%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ICL	59 Neutral	$6.93B	32.61	3.77%	3.36%	1.77%	-8.72%
FMC	49 Neutral	$1.76B	-0.78	-61.24%	16.68%	-13.42%	-136.59%

Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events

CF Industries Secures Settlement, Ends Ammonium Nitrate Agreements

On March 15, 2026, CF Industries’ subsidiaries reached a settlement agreement resolving litigation with Orica International and its affiliates, as well as Nelson Brothers, Inc. and Nelson Brothers LLC. As part of the settlement, Orica agreed to pay CF Industries $169.5 million in cash and the parties terminated long-standing ammonium nitrate purchase agreements signed in February 2014.

The cash payment and contract termination mark a significant financial and commercial adjustment to CF Industries’ relationship with a major customer in the ammonium nitrate segment. Ending the 2014 purchase agreements may alter future sales patterns and supply commitments, potentially giving CF Industries greater flexibility in how it allocates ammonium nitrate production and manages its customer portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

CF Industries JV Solidified as JERA Option Expires

On April 8, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. announced the formation of Blue Point Number One, LLC, a joint venture with Japan’s largest energy company JERA Co., Inc. and global investment and trading firm Mitsui & Co., Ltd. to construct, produce and market low-carbon ammonia, with ownership split 40% to CF Industries, 35% to JERA and 25% to Mitsui. As part of the original agreement, JERA held a conditional option to reduce its stake to as low as 20% with CF Industries required to increase its ownership by the same amount, but that option has now expired unexercised, clarifying the long-term ownership structure and signaling continued commitment from all three partners to the low-carbon ammonia project.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Sell with a $78.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

CF Industries appoints interim CFO amid leadership transition

On January 5, 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and its executive vice president and chief financial officer, Gregory D. Cameron, agreed that Cameron will leave the company effective February 15, 2026, marking a planned leadership transition in the finance function. On January 6, 2026, the company named long-time vice president, corporate controller and chief accounting officer, Richard A. Hoker, as interim CFO effective the same date, while it conducts a search for a permanent successor. Hoker, a seasoned finance executive with prior experience at Sara Lee and Coopers & Lybrand and credentials including CPA and an MBA in finance and accounting, steps into the interim role without any related-party concerns disclosed, and existing compensation arrangements for both executives remain unchanged as the company navigates this transition in its senior financial leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Hold with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.