Cf Industries Holdings (CF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $15.73B
• Dividend Yield: 2.02%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.13M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.26
• Revenue Growth: 0.66%
• EPS Growth: 25.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,800
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 1.97
• Shares Outstanding: 162,010,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,300,755
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,126,900
• PEG Ratio: 1.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.76
• 1Y Price Target: $91.22
• Price Target Upside: -4.74% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $109.00 ▲(13.83%Upside)

CF Industries Holdings is well-positioned with strong financial performance, strategic growth initiatives, and a positive technical outlook. While valuation is reasonable, potential risks include ammonia price volatility and global trade challenges.

Positive Factors

Earnings

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is indicating much higher mid-cycle earnings than the market expects, which supports a positive outlook for its stock.

Financial Performance

EBITDA and free cash flow projections for CF are anticipated to improve significantly, providing a strong financial outlook.

Strategic Initiatives

A partnership with Linde has reduced the capital expenditure for the Blue Point facility by $300 million, reflecting cost-efficiency and strategic collaboration.

Negative Factors

Geopolitical Risks

Gas spreads and the nitrogen dynamic have stayed resilient and there are still risks global nitrogen supply is impacted further by volatile geopolitical developments.

Investor Sentiment

The stock has been fighting the 'as good as it gets' debate, and some investors are not sold on the under-construction Blue Point low carbon ammonia JV.

Market Dynamics

European ammonia capacity closures are expected due to inefficiencies and low margins, impacting global supply dynamics.

Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a leading global manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers. Operating primarily in the chemicals sector, the company produces ammonia, urea, and other nitrogen-based fertilizers that are critical for enhancing crop yields. Headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois, CF Industries operates multiple production facilities across North America and is committed to providing essential products that support global food production needs.

How the Company Makes Money

CF Industries Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of nitrogen-based fertilizers, including ammonia, urea, and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) solutions. The company operates large-scale production facilities that convert natural gas into nitrogen products, which are then distributed to wholesalers, retailers, and international markets. Revenue is influenced by global agricultural demand, natural gas prices, and the company's ability to efficiently manage logistics and distribution. Key partnerships with agricultural distributors and strategic contracts for natural gas supply also play significant roles in stabilizing and enhancing CF Industries' revenue streams.

Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CF Industries exhibits strong profitability and robust cash flows, highlighted by efficient operations and solid equity returns. Despite a decrease in revenue, the company maintains a healthy balance sheet and demonstrates effective leverage management. Continued focus on revenue growth will be crucial for sustained performance.

Income Statement

The income statement shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin of 36% and a net profit margin of 22% TTM. While revenue has decreased by approximately 8% annually, the company maintains solid EBIT and EBITDA margins at 23% and 36% respectively, indicating efficient operations. However, the decline in revenue growth is a concern for future stability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.69, indicating manageable leverage. Return on equity stands at 28%, highlighting effective use of equity. The equity ratio of 36% ensures a stable financial foundation, though slightly lower than previous periods, suggesting a minor increase in liabilities compared to equity growth.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics are robust, with operating cash flow to net income ratio over 1.8 indicating strong cash generation capability. Free cash flow grew by 6% TTM, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is notably high at 1.39, emphasizing substantial liquidity and financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.13B	5.94B	6.63B	11.19B	6.54B	4.12B
Gross Profit	2.22B	2.06B	2.54B	5.86B	2.39B	801.00M
EBITDA	2.20B	2.81B	3.27B	6.28B	3.07B	1.53B
Net Income	1.34B	1.22B	1.52B	3.35B	1.26B	432.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.31B	13.47B	14.38B	13.31B	12.38B	12.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.41B	1.61B	2.03B	2.32B	1.63B	683.00M
Total Debt	3.30B	3.25B	3.23B	3.23B	3.72B	4.22B
Total Liabilities	6.01B	5.87B	6.00B	5.46B	6.34B	6.42B
Stockholders Equity	4.78B	4.99B	5.72B	5.05B	3.21B	2.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.86B	1.75B	2.26B	3.39B	2.35B	922.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.41B	2.27B	2.76B	3.85B	2.87B	1.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-495.00M	-469.00M	-1.68B	-440.00M	-466.00M	-299.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.27B	-2.21B	-1.37B	-2.70B	-1.46B	-542.00M

Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 95.76
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 95.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 95.85, above the 50-day MA of 90.44, and above the 200-day MA of 84.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CF.

Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UAN	79 Outperform	$945.98M	12.50	25.16%	10.10%	-7.27%	-9.30%
CF	75 Outperform	$15.73B	12.81	26.14%	2.02%	0.66%	25.75%
ICL	70 Neutral	$9.10B	23.38	6.70%	2.38%	-3.48%	-18.34%
FMC	69 Neutral	$5.45B	16.37	8.81%	5.32%	1.45%	-70.85%
MOS	69 Neutral	$11.84B	32.20	3.09%	2.36%	-13.37%	-50.63%
SMG	57 Neutral	$3.99B	138.18	4.98%	3.83%	0.75%	―
Sector *	44 Neutral	C$969.59M	-6.68	-13.73%	2.50%	17.55%	-32.57%

Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events

CF Industries Unveils Low-Carbon Ammonia Strategy

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. announced during its Investor Day on June 24, 2025, that it is advancing its strategic plans to produce low-carbon ammonia and develop carbon capture and sequestration projects. These initiatives are part of the company’s efforts to transition to a hydrogen economy and meet greenhouse gas reduction targets. The announcement highlights the company’s focus on sustainable growth and its commitment to addressing environmental challenges, which could impact its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Hold with a $81.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

CF Industries Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting, Elects Directors

On May 6, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. held its annual meeting of shareholders, where various matters were voted upon. All nominated directors were elected to serve for a one-year term, while the compensation of the company’s named executive officers was approved. Additionally, KPMG LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. A shareholder proposal regarding the approval requirement for excessive golden parachutes was not passed.