Cf Industries Holdings (CF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.08B
• Dividend Yield: 2.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.24
• Revenue Growth: 12.59%
• EPS Growth: 31.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,800
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 2.28
• Shares Outstanding: 155,974,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,738,929
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,461,794
• PEG Ratio: -0.87
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.56
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.04
• 1Y Price Target: $92.60
• Price Target Upside: 18.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.83
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.98B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $86.00 ▲(10.06% Upside)

CF Industries Holdings scores a 72, driven by strong financial performance and strategic initiatives highlighted in the earnings call. The low valuation and attractive dividend yield further enhance its appeal. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and recent equity declines pose potential risks.

Positive Factors

Strong Financial Performance

The high EBITDA and strong free cash flow conversion rate underscore robust operational efficiency and financial health, supporting long-term growth.

Environmental Achievements

Significant reductions in emissions and investment in sustainable projects enhance the company's reputation and align with global environmental trends.

Strategic Financial Planning

The senior notes offering strengthens financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and operational resilience in a competitive market.

Negative Factors

Declining Free Cash Flow

A decline in free cash flow growth may limit the company's ability to reinvest in growth opportunities and manage debt, impacting long-term financial stability.

Cost Challenges

Rising costs due to inflation and maintenance expenses could pressure margins and reduce profitability, affecting the company's competitive position.

Declining Equity Levels

Decreasing equity levels can signal financial weakness, potentially limiting the company's ability to fund future growth and manage financial obligations.

Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

CF Industries generates revenue primarily through the sale of its nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products. The company's revenue model is based on selling these products to agricultural customers, which include farmers and distributors. Key revenue streams include the sale of urea, ammonium nitrate, and other nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are sold at market-driven prices influenced by factors such as crop demand, production costs, and global commodity prices. Additionally, CF Industries benefits from long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with agricultural cooperatives and distributors, enabling them to secure stable sales channels. The company's investments in production facilities, particularly its state-of-the-art nitrogen production plants, also contribute to its competitive advantage and profitability. Overall, CF Industries' earnings are significantly impacted by agricultural trends, global fertilizer demand, and fluctuations in natural gas prices, which is a critical input in nitrogen fertilizer production.

Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CF Industries Holdings demonstrates a solid financial performance with strong profitability and moderate leverage. The company shows positive revenue growth and effective equity utilization, although there are some concerns regarding declining free cash flow growth and operational efficiency.

Income Statement

CF Industries Holdings shows a strong financial performance with a solid gross profit margin of 38.65% and a net profit margin of 20.20% for TTM. The revenue growth rate of 4.48% indicates a positive trajectory compared to the previous period. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased, suggesting some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is robust at 26.14%, showcasing effective utilization of equity. However, the equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, which could provide further insights into asset financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a slight decline in free cash flow growth at -4.20%, which could be a concern if it continues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.01, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.71 suggests that a significant portion of net income is converted into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.74B	5.94B	6.63B	11.19B	6.54B	4.12B
Gross Profit	2.68B	2.06B	2.65B	5.89B	2.36B	834.00M
EBITDA	3.12B	2.83B	3.27B	6.28B	2.61B	1.53B
Net Income	1.38B	1.22B	1.52B	3.35B	917.00M	317.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.20B	13.47B	14.38B	13.31B	12.38B	12.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.84B	1.61B	2.03B	2.32B	1.63B	683.00M
Total Debt	3.40B	3.25B	3.23B	3.23B	3.72B	4.22B
Total Liabilities	6.51B	5.87B	6.00B	5.46B	6.34B	6.42B
Stockholders Equity	4.85B	4.99B	5.72B	5.05B	3.21B	2.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.71B	1.75B	2.26B	3.39B	2.35B	922.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.63B	2.27B	2.76B	3.85B	2.87B	1.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-903.00M	-469.00M	-1.68B	-440.00M	-466.00M	-299.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.76B	-2.21B	-1.37B	-2.70B	-1.46B	-542.00M

Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 78.14
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 78.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 78.34, below the 50-day MA of 81.12, and below the 200-day MA of 84.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CF.

Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	72 Outperform	$12.08B	9.42	27.46%	2.56%	12.59%	31.40%
UAN	69 Neutral	$1.01B	8.03	42.00%	12.33%	16.52%	141.96%
MOS	65 Neutral	$7.72B	6.30	10.00%	3.70%	3.82%	239.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ICL	60 Neutral	$6.56B	18.12	6.15%	3.36%	1.77%	-8.72%
SMG	50 Neutral	$3.44B	23.61	―	4.52%	-3.93%	―
FMC	47 Neutral	$1.65B	-3.09	-11.52%	16.68%	-13.42%	-136.59%

Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events

CF Industries Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On November 26, 2025, CF Industries, Inc., a subsidiary of CF Industries Holdings, Inc., completed a public offering of $1 billion in 5.300% Senior Notes due 2035. The offering, fully guaranteed by the parent company, was executed under an Indenture agreement with Wilmington Trust and involved several covenants and restrictions. The issuance aims to strengthen the company’s financial position and provide flexibility for future operations.

CF Industries Holdings Secures $750 Million Credit Agreement

On September 4, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and its subsidiary CF Industries, Inc. entered into a $750 million senior unsecured First Amended and Restated Revolving Credit Agreement with Citibank as the administrative agent. This agreement, which extends the company’s revolving credit facility to September 4, 2030, aims to support various corporate purposes, including working capital and acquisitions, and reflects the company’s strategic financial planning to maintain operational flexibility and leverage management.