Cf Industries Holdings (CF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.54B
• Dividend Yield: 2.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.00M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.24
• Revenue Growth: 12.59%
• EPS Growth: 31.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,800
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 2.28
• Shares Outstanding: 155,974,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,029,358
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,997,901
• PEG Ratio: -0.87
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.22
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.34
• 1Y Price Target: $91.00
• Price Target Upside: -2.39% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $103.00 ▲(10.48% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial profitability and a favorable valuation (low P/E with a solid dividend). Earnings-call commentary reinforces the outlook via strong cash generation and shareholder returns, while technical signals are mixed and temper near-term conviction.

Positive Factors

High Profitability & Margins

CF Industries displays durable operational efficiency and pricing power with very high gross and EBITDA margins. These margins support strong ROE and provide buffer versus input-cost swings, enabling sustained cash generation and reinvestment capacity across crop cycles.

Strong FCF Conversion & Shareholder Returns

A 65% conversion of EBITDA into free cash flow and sizable buybacks demonstrate disciplined cash conversion and capital allocation. Reliable conversion supports ongoing dividends, repurchases, and funding for strategic projects without immediate reliance on external financing.

Strategic Low-Carbon Ammonia JV (Blue Point)

The Blue Point ultra-low emissions ammonia project, co-owned with JERA and Mitsui, aligns CF with decarbonization trends and secures long-term demand and partner credibility. Clarified ownership reduces execution uncertainty and positions CF for premium low-carbon product markets.

Negative Factors

Volatile Revenue Trends

Revenue volatility driven by commodity cycles, seasonal farming demand and inventory swings creates uncertainty in top-line predictability. That variability complicates multi-year planning, capital allocation and makes sustained margin expansion harder to rely on across agronomic cycles.

Decline in Free Cash Flow Growth

A negative FCF growth trend, despite healthy conversion rates, suggests rising working capital needs, higher maintenance capex or timing effects. If sustained, this reduces flexibility for buybacks, dividends and funding of strategic projects without increasing leverage.

Operational/Safety Incident Risk (Yazoo City)

The Yazoo City incident poses operational and regulatory risk; investigations can lead to extended downtime, remediation costs and stricter oversight. Persistent safety issues can raise insurance, compliance and capital costs and materially affect long-term production reliability.

Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

CF Industries generates revenue primarily through the sale of its nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products. The company's revenue model is based on selling these products to agricultural customers, which include farmers and distributors. Key revenue streams include the sale of urea, ammonium nitrate, and other nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are sold at market-driven prices influenced by factors such as crop demand, production costs, and global commodity prices. Additionally, CF Industries benefits from long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with agricultural cooperatives and distributors, enabling them to secure stable sales channels. The company's investments in production facilities, particularly its state-of-the-art nitrogen production plants, also contribute to its competitive advantage and profitability. Overall, CF Industries' earnings are significantly impacted by agricultural trends, global fertilizer demand, and fluctuations in natural gas prices, which is a critical input in nitrogen fertilizer production.

Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is strong (TTM gross margin 39.76%, net margin 20.47%, EBITDA margin 45.75%) with solid ROE (28.18%) and manageable leverage (debt-to-equity 0.70). Offsetting factors include volatile historical revenue trends and a recent decline in free cash flow growth (-4.20% TTM).

Income Statement

CF Industries Holdings shows a solid performance with a TTM gross profit margin of 39.76% and a net profit margin of 20.47%, indicating strong profitability. The revenue growth rate of 4.48% in the TTM period is a positive sign, although it follows a decline in previous years. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 32.53% and 45.75%, respectively, reflecting efficient operations. However, the historical volatility in revenue growth suggests potential risks.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70, showing a manageable level of leverage. The return on equity is strong at 28.18%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 34.14%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. However, the decrease in stockholders' equity over time could be a concern if it continues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by 4.20% in the TTM period, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 2.01, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.65 suggests that a significant portion of earnings is converted into free cash flow. Despite the recent decline, the company maintains a strong cash flow position.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.74B	5.94B	6.63B	11.19B	6.54B	4.12B
Gross Profit	2.68B	2.06B	2.65B	5.89B	2.36B	834.00M
EBITDA	3.12B	2.83B	3.27B	6.28B	2.61B	1.53B
Net Income	1.38B	1.22B	1.52B	3.35B	917.00M	317.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.20B	13.47B	14.38B	13.31B	12.38B	12.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.84B	1.61B	2.03B	2.32B	1.63B	683.00M
Total Debt	3.40B	3.25B	3.23B	3.23B	3.72B	4.22B
Total Liabilities	6.51B	5.87B	6.00B	5.46B	6.34B	6.42B
Stockholders Equity	4.85B	4.99B	5.72B	5.05B	3.21B	2.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.71B	1.75B	2.26B	3.39B	2.35B	922.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.63B	2.27B	2.76B	3.85B	2.87B	1.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-903.00M	-469.00M	-1.68B	-440.00M	-466.00M	-299.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.76B	-2.21B	-1.37B	-2.70B	-1.46B	-542.00M

Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 93.23
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 93.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.45, above the 50-day MA of 81.53, and above the 200-day MA of 85.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CF.

Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	70 Outperform	$14.54B	11.24	27.46%	2.56%	12.59%	31.40%
UAN	68 Neutral	$1.09B	8.60	42.00%	12.33%	16.52%	141.96%
MOS	65 Neutral	$8.73B	7.13	10.00%	3.70%	3.82%	239.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ICL	60 Neutral	$6.91B	18.71	6.15%	3.36%	1.77%	-8.72%
SMG	52 Neutral	$3.73B	43.42	―	4.52%	-3.93%	―
FMC	47 Neutral	$1.97B	-3.71	-11.52%	16.68%	-13.42%	-136.59%

Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events

CF Industries JV Solidified as JERA Option Expires

On April 8, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. announced the formation of Blue Point Number One, LLC, a joint venture with Japan’s largest energy company JERA Co., Inc. and global investment and trading firm Mitsui & Co., Ltd. to construct, produce and market low-carbon ammonia, with ownership split 40% to CF Industries, 35% to JERA and 25% to Mitsui. As part of the original agreement, JERA held a conditional option to reduce its stake to as low as 20% with CF Industries required to increase its ownership by the same amount, but that option has now expired unexercised, clarifying the long-term ownership structure and signaling continued commitment from all three partners to the low-carbon ammonia project.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Sell with a $78.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

CF Industries appoints interim CFO amid leadership transition

On January 5, 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and its executive vice president and chief financial officer, Gregory D. Cameron, agreed that Cameron will leave the company effective February 15, 2026, marking a planned leadership transition in the finance function. On January 6, 2026, the company named long-time vice president, corporate controller and chief accounting officer, Richard A. Hoker, as interim CFO effective the same date, while it conducts a search for a permanent successor. Hoker, a seasoned finance executive with prior experience at Sara Lee and Coopers & Lybrand and credentials including CPA and an MBA in finance and accounting, steps into the interim role without any related-party concerns disclosed, and existing compensation arrangements for both executives remain unchanged as the company navigates this transition in its senior financial leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Hold with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

CF Industries Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On November 26, 2025, CF Industries, Inc., a subsidiary of CF Industries Holdings, Inc., completed a public offering of $1 billion in 5.300% Senior Notes due 2035. The offering, fully guaranteed by the parent company, was executed under an Indenture agreement with Wilmington Trust and involved several covenants and restrictions. The issuance aims to strengthen the company’s financial position and provide flexibility for future operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Buy with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.