Cf Industries Holdings (CF)
NYSE:CF
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Cf Industries Holdings
(NYSE:CF)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$155.00
▲(19.26% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/16/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability and robust operating/free cash flow with improving leverage) and an attractive valuation (low P/E). Technicals show a strong uptrend but momentum is overextended (high RSI/Stoch), and the earnings outlook includes a notable 2026 EBITDA headwind from the Yazoo outage alongside execution/regulatory uncertainties, partially mitigated by expected insurance proceeds and continued capital returns.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & free cash flow
Consistent, multi-billion operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility to fund sustaining capex, strategic growth (Blue Point), large share repurchases, and debt refinancing. Strong cash conversion helps absorb cyclic earnings swings and supports capital returns over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Yazoo City production outage
A long-duration plant outage materially reduces network supply and operating leverage, trimming earnings and utilization for multiple quarters. Even with expected insurance proceeds, the multi-quarter capacity loss and replacement timing create lasting risk to output and contracts until full site restoration.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & free cash flow
Consistent, multi-billion operating and free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility to fund sustaining capex, strategic growth (Blue Point), large share repurchases, and debt refinancing. Strong cash conversion helps absorb cyclic earnings swings and supports capital returns over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Cf Industries Holdings (CF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.97B
Dividend Yield2.56%
Average Volume (3M)6.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.6
Beta (1Y)0.02
Revenue Growth12.59%
EPS Growth31.40%
CountryUS
Employees2,800
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.73
Shares Outstanding153,616,440
10 Day Avg. Volume6,558,188
30 Day Avg. Volume6,156,382
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)2.59
Price to Sales (P/S)1.77
P/FCF Ratio6.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.56
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.71
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$111.64Price Target Upside-14.10% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)10.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.12B
Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammoni...
How the Company Makes Money
CF Industries makes money primarily by producing and selling nitrogen-based products derived from ammonia, which is manufactured using natural gas as a key feedstock and energy source. Its core revenue streams come from sales of nitrogen fertilize...
Cf Industries Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Production Volume by Segment
Indicates the output levels across different segments, providing insight into operational efficiency and capacity utilization.
Indicates the output levels across different segments, providing insight into operational efficiency and capacity utilization.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCf Industries Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, robust financial results (adjusted EBITDA ~$2.9B, free cash flow ~$1.8B) and active capital returns (large share repurchases and new repurchase authorization). Strategic progress was highlighted via Blue Point FID, Donaldsonville CCS ramp, and early low‑carbon sales. Main negatives were the Yazoo City incident (production outage, ~$200M EBITDA headwind) and a $51M impairment on an electrolyzer pilot, plus execution/timing risks around large projects and regulatory uncertainties. Management expects insurance proceeds to mitigate much of the Yazoo impact and framed market dynamics as constructive (tight global nitrogen market supporting prices). Overall, positives (strong cash generation, buybacks, growth/decabonization progress, favorable market) outweigh the material but manageable setbacks (Yazoo, pilot impairment, geopolitical/regulatory risks).Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.9 billion for FY2025 (vs. a referenced mid-cycle ~$2.5B, ~+16%). Net earnings attributable to common stockholders ~ $1.5 billion, or $8.97 per diluted share.
Negative Updates
Yazoo City Incident and Production Impact
Process incident at Yazoo City Complex in November (no significant injuries). Ammonium nitrate unit damaged; site not expected to resume production until Q4 2026 at the earliest. Management forecasts network gross ammonia production of ~9.5 million tons in 2026 (down from 10.1M in 2025, ~-5.9%) and estimates a ~$200 million full‑year EBITDA impact from the outage.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Financial Performance
Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.9 billion for FY2025 (vs. a referenced mid-cycle ~$2.5B, ~+16%). Net earnings attributable to common stockholders ~ $1.5 billion, or $8.97 per diluted share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
CF Industries guided to a 2026 operating year shaped by the Yazoo City outage and continued strong market fundamentals: the company now expects its network to produce ~9.5 million tons of gross ammonia in 2026 (vs. 10.1 million tons in 2025 at 97% utilization), anticipates sequestering just under 1.5 million tons of CO2 in 2026 from Donaldsonville, and disclosed a full-year EBITDA hit from Yazoo of roughly $200 million (with business interruption insurance proceeds expected during 2026 after satisfying the deductible in December). 2026 consolidated capital expenditures are forecast at approximately $1.3 billion (CF’s share ~ $950 million, including $550 million sustaining CapEx plus ~ $400 million for Blue Point and common infrastructure); Blue Point’s total project cost remains ~$3.7 billion (CF’s 40% interest), civil work is expected to begin in Q2 2026 and the project includes ~$500 million of contingency. 2025 financials cited as context: net cash from operations $2.75 billion, free cash flow ≈ $1.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA ≈ $2.9 billion, net earnings ≈ $1.5 billion or $8.97/diluted share; Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA $821 million and net earnings $404 million ($2.59/diluted share). Other 2025 actions and balances: returned $1.7 billion to shareholders (including >$1.3 billion to repurchase 16.6 million shares, ~10% of shares), completed a $1 billion senior notes offering to refinance $750 million maturing Dec 2026, commenced a new $2 billion repurchase authorization with ≈ $1.7 billion remaining, and recorded $76 million of impairment charges ($51 million electrolyzer pilot, $25 million Yazoo).Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.08B | 5.94B | 6.63B | 11.19B | 6.54B |
| Gross Profit | 2.72B | 2.06B | 2.65B | 5.89B | 2.36B |
| EBITDA | 3.29B | 2.83B | 3.27B | 6.28B | 2.61B |
| Net Income | 1.46B | 1.22B | 1.52B | 3.35B | 917.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 14.09B | 13.47B | 14.38B | 13.31B | 12.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.98B | 1.61B | 2.03B | 2.32B | 1.63B |
| Total Debt | 3.95B | 3.25B | 3.23B | 3.23B | 3.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.31B | 5.87B | 6.00B | 5.46B | 6.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.84B | 4.99B | 5.72B | 5.05B | 3.21B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.80B | 1.75B | 2.26B | 3.39B | 2.35B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.75B | 2.27B | 2.76B | 3.85B | 2.87B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -933.00M | -469.00M | -1.68B | -440.00M | -466.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.48B | -2.21B | -1.37B | -2.70B | -1.46B |
Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
129.97
Price Trends
107.75
Positive
93.78
Positive
90.75
Positive
Market Momentum
7.18
Positive
59.94
Neutral
52.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 129.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 125.75, above the 50-day MA of 107.75, and above the 200-day MA of 90.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CF.
Cf Industries Holdings Risk Analysis
Cf Industries Holdings disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cf Industries Holdings reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $19.97B | 8.62 | 29.95% | 2.56% | 12.59% | 31.40% | |
68 Neutral | $8.31B | 14.14 | 9.96% | 3.70% | 3.82% | 239.39% | |
67 Neutral | $1.33B | 10.98 | 32.82% | 12.33% | 16.52% | 141.96% | |
62 Neutral | $3.71B | -6.71 | -27.23% | 4.52% | -3.93% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $6.76B | 32.61 | 3.77% | 3.36% | 1.77% | -8.72% | |
49 Neutral | $2.22B | -0.78 | -61.24% | 16.68% | -13.42% | -136.59% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CF
Cf Industries Holdings
129.97
59.57
84.61%
UAN
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126.00
67.70
116.12%
FMC
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17.75
-16.03
-47.45%
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Mosaic Co
26.17
3.30
14.45%
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
63.88
13.71
27.32%
ICL
Icl
5.24
-0.12
-2.26%
Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
CF Industries Secures Settlement, Ends Ammonium Nitrate Agreements
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On March 15, 2026, CF Industries’ subsidiaries reached a settlement agreement resolving litigation with Orica International and its affiliates, as well as Nelson Brothers, Inc. and Nelson Brothers LLC. As part of the settlement, Orica agreed...
Business Operations and Strategy
CF Industries JV Solidified as JERA Option Expires
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
On April 8, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. announced the formation of Blue Point Number One, LLC, a joint venture with Japan’s largest energy company JERA Co., Inc. and global investment and trading firm Mitsui Co., Ltd. to construct, p...
Executive/Board Changes
CF Industries appoints interim CFO amid leadership transition
Neutral
Jan 7, 2026
On January 5, 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and its executive vice president and chief financial officer, Gregory D. Cameron, agreed that Cameron will leave the company effective February 15, 2026, marking a planned leadership transition in t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.