Cf Industries Holdings (CF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.88B
• Dividend Yield: 2.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.11M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.24
• Revenue Growth: 12.59%
• EPS Growth: 31.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,800
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 2.28
• Shares Outstanding: 155,974,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,782,021
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,113,879
• PEG Ratio: -0.87
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.46
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.04
• 1Y Price Target: $91.60
• Price Target Upside: 13.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $89.00 ▲(10.16% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial profitability and a favorable valuation (low P/E with a solid dividend). Earnings-call commentary reinforces the outlook via strong cash generation and shareholder returns, while technical signals are mixed and temper near-term conviction.

Positive Factors

High profitability and ROE

Sustained high gross and net margins with a strong 28% ROE indicate durable operational efficiency and pricing power in nitrogen fertilizer production. These margins support reinvestment, dividends, and resilience through cycles, underpinning cash generation and strategic flexibility over months to years.

Strong free cash flow conversion & buybacks

A 65% conversion of EBITDA to free cash flow and substantial share repurchases demonstrate consistent cash conversion and a shareholder-focused capital allocation framework. Reliable FCF enables debt management, project funding and continued buybacks, supporting per-share earnings durability over the medium term.

Strategic low‑carbon ammonia JV with major partners

The Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui positions CF to lead low‑carbon ammonia supply, granting offtake credibility, shared capital risk, and technology scale. Management expects incremental free cash flow from these projects, strengthening long-term growth and ESG alignment amid decarbonization trends.

Negative Factors

Historical revenue volatility

The company’s revenue has shown historical volatility driven by commodity cycles and uneven global demand. Persistent top-line swings complicate multi-year planning, capex timing and margin predictability, making earnings and cash flow more sensitive to agricultural and macro commodity shifts over months to quarters.

Decline in free cash flow growth

A recent decline in free cash flow growth reduces room for discretionary spending while projects and shareholder returns continue. If FCF growth does not stabilize, funding for strategic investments or buybacks may be constrained and leverage or liquidity could face pressure over the medium term.

Operational risk from Yazoo City incident

A material incident at the Yazoo City complex creates operational, regulatory and reputational risk that can affect production availability and raise compliance or remediation costs. Such events can reduce plant reliability and increase downtime or capital needs, impacting sustainable output and margins over months.

Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

CF Industries generates revenue primarily through the sale of its nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products. The company's revenue model is based on selling these products to agricultural customers, which include farmers and distributors. Key revenue streams include the sale of urea, ammonium nitrate, and other nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are sold at market-driven prices influenced by factors such as crop demand, production costs, and global commodity prices. Additionally, CF Industries benefits from long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with agricultural cooperatives and distributors, enabling them to secure stable sales channels. The company's investments in production facilities, particularly its state-of-the-art nitrogen production plants, also contribute to its competitive advantage and profitability. Overall, CF Industries' earnings are significantly impacted by agricultural trends, global fertilizer demand, and fluctuations in natural gas prices, which is a critical input in nitrogen fertilizer production.

Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CF Industries Holdings demonstrates a solid financial performance with strong profitability and moderate leverage. The company shows positive revenue growth and effective equity utilization, although there are some concerns regarding declining free cash flow growth and operational efficiency.

Income Statement

CF Industries Holdings shows a strong financial performance with a solid gross profit margin of 38.65% and a net profit margin of 20.20% for TTM. The revenue growth rate of 4.48% indicates a positive trajectory compared to the previous period. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased, suggesting some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is robust at 26.14%, showcasing effective utilization of equity. However, the equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, which could provide further insights into asset financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a slight decline in free cash flow growth at -4.20%, which could be a concern if it continues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.01, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.71 suggests that a significant portion of net income is converted into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.74B	5.94B	6.63B	11.19B	6.54B	4.12B
Gross Profit	2.68B	2.06B	2.65B	5.89B	2.36B	834.00M
EBITDA	3.12B	2.83B	3.27B	6.28B	2.61B	1.53B
Net Income	1.38B	1.22B	1.52B	3.35B	917.00M	317.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.20B	13.47B	14.38B	13.31B	12.38B	12.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.84B	1.61B	2.03B	2.32B	1.63B	683.00M
Total Debt	3.40B	3.25B	3.23B	3.23B	3.72B	4.22B
Total Liabilities	6.51B	5.87B	6.00B	5.46B	6.34B	6.42B
Stockholders Equity	4.85B	4.99B	5.72B	5.05B	3.21B	2.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.71B	1.75B	2.26B	3.39B	2.35B	922.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.63B	2.27B	2.76B	3.85B	2.87B	1.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-903.00M	-469.00M	-1.68B	-440.00M	-466.00M	-299.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.76B	-2.21B	-1.37B	-2.70B	-1.46B	-542.00M

Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 80.79
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 80.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 78.80, above the 50-day MA of 79.78, and below the 200-day MA of 84.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CF.

Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UAN	72 Outperform	$1.15B	9.06	42.00%	12.33%	16.52%	141.96%
CF	70 Outperform	$12.88B	9.96	27.46%	2.56%	12.59%	31.40%
MOS	65 Neutral	$8.25B	6.74	10.00%	3.70%	3.82%	239.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ICL	60 Neutral	$7.21B	19.55	6.15%	3.36%	1.77%	-8.72%
SMG	50 Neutral	$3.58B	24.97	―	4.52%	-3.93%	―
FMC	47 Neutral	$1.90B	-3.56	-11.52%	16.68%	-13.42%	-136.59%

Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events

CF Industries JV Solidified as JERA Option Expires

On April 8, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. announced the formation of Blue Point Number One, LLC, a joint venture with Japan’s largest energy company JERA Co., Inc. and global investment and trading firm Mitsui & Co., Ltd. to construct, produce and market low-carbon ammonia, with ownership split 40% to CF Industries, 35% to JERA and 25% to Mitsui. As part of the original agreement, JERA held a conditional option to reduce its stake to as low as 20% with CF Industries required to increase its ownership by the same amount, but that option has now expired unexercised, clarifying the long-term ownership structure and signaling continued commitment from all three partners to the low-carbon ammonia project.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Sell with a $78.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

CF Industries appoints interim CFO amid leadership transition

On January 5, 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and its executive vice president and chief financial officer, Gregory D. Cameron, agreed that Cameron will leave the company effective February 15, 2026, marking a planned leadership transition in the finance function. On January 6, 2026, the company named long-time vice president, corporate controller and chief accounting officer, Richard A. Hoker, as interim CFO effective the same date, while it conducts a search for a permanent successor. Hoker, a seasoned finance executive with prior experience at Sara Lee and Coopers & Lybrand and credentials including CPA and an MBA in finance and accounting, steps into the interim role without any related-party concerns disclosed, and existing compensation arrangements for both executives remain unchanged as the company navigates this transition in its senior financial leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Hold with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

CF Industries Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On November 26, 2025, CF Industries, Inc., a subsidiary of CF Industries Holdings, Inc., completed a public offering of $1 billion in 5.300% Senior Notes due 2035. The offering, fully guaranteed by the parent company, was executed under an Indenture agreement with Wilmington Trust and involved several covenants and restrictions. The issuance aims to strengthen the company’s financial position and provide flexibility for future operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Buy with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.