Cf Industries Holdings (CF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $16.25B
• Dividend Yield: 1.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.74M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.31
• Revenue Growth: 0.66%
• EPS Growth: 25.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,800
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 1.97
• Shares Outstanding: 162,010,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,359,838
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,743,388
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.77
• 1Y Price Target: $88.60
• Price Target Upside: -11.67% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $94.00 ▼(-6.29%Downside)

CF Industries scores highly due to robust financial performance, strategic growth initiatives, and strong technical momentum. The company's attractive valuation and positive earnings call sentiment further bolster its score. However, potential risks such as ammonia price volatility and trade challenges should be monitored.

Positive Factors

Operational Performance

CF posted strong revenue and EBIT across most segments, with Ammonia the biggest driver of the beat producing at a 100% operating rate during the quarter.

Strategic Investments

The JV structure for the Blue Point project derisks the project, ensures offtake for 60% of production and reduces CF funding requirements for the project to 40%.

Negative Factors

Valuation Concerns

CF shares are trading at a valuation premium compared to its historical median and relative to normalized EBITDA, reaching the upper end of the comfortable range.

Volume Forecasts

The updated 2Q volume forecasts show a decline in nitrogen volume, despite strong 1Q volumes, suggesting a decrease in production or demand.

Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a leading global manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers. Operating primarily in the chemicals sector, the company produces ammonia, urea, and other nitrogen-based fertilizers that are critical for enhancing crop yields. Headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois, CF Industries operates multiple production facilities across North America and is committed to providing essential products that support global food production needs.

How the Company Makes Money

CF Industries Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of nitrogen-based fertilizers, including ammonia, urea, and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) solutions. The company operates large-scale production facilities that convert natural gas into nitrogen products, which are then distributed to wholesalers, retailers, and international markets. Revenue is influenced by global agricultural demand, natural gas prices, and the company's ability to efficiently manage logistics and distribution. Key partnerships with agricultural distributors and strategic contracts for natural gas supply also play significant roles in stabilizing and enhancing CF Industries' revenue streams.

Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CF Industries exhibits strong profitability and robust cash flows, highlighted by efficient operations and solid equity returns. Despite a decrease in revenue, the company maintains a healthy balance sheet and demonstrates effective leverage management. Continued focus on revenue growth will be crucial for sustained performance.

Income Statement

The income statement shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin of 36% and a net profit margin of 22% TTM. While revenue has decreased by approximately 8% annually, the company maintains solid EBIT and EBITDA margins at 23% and 36% respectively, indicating efficient operations. However, the decline in revenue growth is a concern for future stability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.69, indicating manageable leverage. Return on equity stands at 28%, highlighting effective use of equity. The equity ratio of 36% ensures a stable financial foundation, though slightly lower than previous periods, suggesting a minor increase in liabilities compared to equity growth.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics are robust, with operating cash flow to net income ratio over 1.8 indicating strong cash generation capability. Free cash flow grew by 6% TTM, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is notably high at 1.39, emphasizing substantial liquidity and financial flexibility.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
6.13B	5.94B	6.63B	11.19B	6.54B	4.12B
	Gross Profit
2.22B	2.06B	2.54B	5.86B	2.39B	801.00M
	EBIT
1.41B	1.75B	2.23B	5.40B	1.73B	623.00M
	EBITDA
2.20B	2.81B	3.27B	6.28B	3.07B	1.53B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.34B	1.22B	1.52B	3.35B	1.26B	432.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.41B	1.61B	2.03B	2.32B	1.63B	683.00M
	Total Assets
13.31B	13.47B	14.38B	13.31B	12.38B	12.02B
	Total Debt
3.30B	3.25B	3.23B	3.23B	3.72B	4.22B
	Net Debt
1.89B	1.63B	1.20B	902.00M	2.09B	3.54B
	Total Liabilities
6.01B	5.87B	6.00B	5.46B	6.34B	6.42B
	Stockholders Equity
4.78B	4.99B	5.72B	5.05B	3.21B	2.92B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.86B	1.75B	2.26B	3.39B	2.35B	922.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
2.41B	2.27B	2.76B	3.85B	2.87B	1.23B
	Investing Cash Flow
-495.00M	-469.00M	-1.68B	-440.00M	-466.00M	-299.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-2.27B	-2.21B	-1.37B	-2.70B	-1.46B	-542.00M

Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 100.31
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 100.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 93.49, above the 50-day MA of 84.58, and above the 200-day MA of 83.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.38 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CF.

Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	80 Outperform	$16.25B	13.23	26.14%	1.99%	0.66%	25.75%
UAN	79 Outperform	$942.60M	12.50	25.16%	10.14%	-7.27%	-9.30%
FMC	72 Outperform	$5.20B	15.98	8.81%	5.57%	1.45%	-70.85%
ICL	70 Neutral	$8.74B	22.45	6.70%	2.54%	-3.48%	-18.34%
MOS	69 Neutral	$11.56B	31.45	3.09%	2.41%	-13.37%	-50.63%
SMG	57 Neutral	$3.51B	121.51	4.98%	4.34%	0.75%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$2.01B	-1.27	-21.11%	5.15%	2.92%	-30.46%

Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events

CF Industries Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting, Elects Directors

On May 6, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. held its annual meeting of shareholders, where various matters were voted upon. All nominated directors were elected to serve for a one-year term, while the compensation of the company’s named executive officers was approved. Additionally, KPMG LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. A shareholder proposal regarding the approval requirement for excessive golden parachutes was not passed.

CF Industries Announces Joint Venture for Ammonia Facility

On April 8, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. announced a joint venture with JERA Co., Inc. and Mitsui & Co., Inc. to construct a low-carbon ammonia production facility at the Blue Point Complex in Louisiana. The project, expected to start production in 2029, aims to be the world’s largest of its kind, with an annual capacity of 1.4 million metric tons. The initiative represents a significant step towards building a low-carbon ammonia value chain, addressing global demand for sustainable energy solutions, and is expected to qualify for tax credits under Section 45Q for carbon sequestration.