Cf Industries Holdings (CF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.84B
• Dividend Yield: 2.23%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.58M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.20
• Revenue Growth: 9.53%
• EPS Growth: 36.15%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,800
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 2.36
• Shares Outstanding: 161,972,960
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,755,400
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,579,086
• PEG Ratio: -0.87
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.31
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.66
• 1Y Price Target: $94.85
• Price Target Upside: 5.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $95.00 ▲(5.90% Upside)

CF Industries Holdings receives a strong overall score due to its solid financial performance and strategic initiatives, particularly in carbon capture and shareholder returns. While technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook, the company's attractive valuation and positive earnings call sentiment support a favorable investment case.

Positive Factors

Carbon Capture Initiative

The successful start-up of the carbon capture project positions CF Industries as a leader in sustainable practices, potentially reducing emissions by 2 million metric tons annually, which aligns with global environmental trends and regulatory pressures.

High Production Utilization

The high utilization rate indicates efficient operations and maximizes output, which can lead to better economies of scale and improved profitability in the long term.

Strong Shareholder Returns

Significant capital returns, including share repurchases, reflect strong cash generation and management's commitment to enhancing shareholder value, which can attract long-term investors.

Negative Factors

Increased Legal and Operational Costs

Rising SG&A costs can pressure margins and profitability, potentially impacting the company's ability to maintain its current level of financial performance and shareholder returns.

Unplanned Outages and Logistic Challenges

Operational disruptions and higher logistics costs can affect supply chain efficiency and product availability, potentially leading to revenue volatility and increased operational risk.

Volatile Farmer Economics

Volatile farmer economics can impact demand for fertilizers, affecting revenue stability. This discrepancy may lead to reduced purchasing power among key customers, posing a risk to sales growth.

Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

CF Industries generates revenue primarily through the sale of its fertilizer products, which are sold to farmers, distributors, and agricultural cooperatives. The company's major revenue streams include the sale of nitrogen products, which account for the largest portion of its earnings, as well as phosphate fertilizers. CF Industries benefits from its extensive production capabilities, which include multiple manufacturing facilities strategically located to serve both domestic and international markets. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its distribution network and supply chain efficiency. Additionally, fluctuations in global agricultural commodity prices, government policies related to agriculture and environmental regulations, and demand for crop nutrients significantly influence the company's financial performance.

Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CF Industries Holdings demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and a stable balance sheet. However, operational efficiency and cash flow generation face some challenges, which slightly dampen the overall financial performance score.

Income Statement

CF Industries Holdings shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 35-38% and a net profit margin of approximately 20-23% in recent years. The TTM revenue growth rate of 5.19% indicates a positive trend after a decline in previous years. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased from their peak in 2022, suggesting some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio improving to 0.43 in TTM from higher levels in previous years. Return on equity remains robust at around 22.86% in TTM, though it has decreased from 2022. The equity ratio is stable, indicating a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a slight decline in free cash flow growth, with a negative growth rate in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.01, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has slightly decreased, reflecting potential challenges in maintaining cash flow levels.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.45B	5.94B	6.63B	11.19B	6.54B	4.12B
Gross Profit	2.49B	2.06B	2.65B	5.89B	2.36B	834.00M
EBITDA	2.93B	2.81B	3.27B	6.28B	2.61B	1.53B
Net Income	1.30B	1.22B	1.52B	3.35B	917.00M	317.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.75B	13.47B	14.38B	13.31B	12.38B	12.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.69B	1.61B	2.03B	2.32B	1.63B	683.00M
Total Debt	3.33B	3.25B	3.23B	3.23B	3.72B	4.22B
Total Liabilities	5.93B	5.87B	6.00B	5.46B	6.34B	6.42B
Stockholders Equity	4.96B	4.99B	5.72B	5.05B	3.21B	2.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.79B	1.75B	2.26B	3.39B	2.35B	922.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.50B	2.27B	2.76B	3.85B	2.87B	1.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-468.00M	-469.00M	-1.68B	-440.00M	-466.00M	-299.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.17B	-2.21B	-1.37B	-2.70B	-1.46B	-542.00M

Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 89.71
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 89.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.02, above the 50-day MA of 87.41, and above the 200-day MA of 85.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.53 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CF.

Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	72 Outperform	$14.84B	11.39	24.98%	2.23%	9.53%	36.15%
UAN	72 Outperform	970.19M	11.03	27.79%	10.02%	8.15%	77.68%
MOS	65 Neutral	11.40B	12.18	7.56%	2.50%	-7.71%	297.49%
ICL	63 Neutral	7.92B	21.59	6.10%	2.97%	-1.22%	-14.31%
FMC	58 Neutral	4.28B	43.46	2.24%	7.00%	1.16%	-92.85%
SMG	52 Neutral	3.31B	74.73	-31.07%	4.67%	-2.05%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events

CF Industries Holdings Secures $750 Million Credit Agreement

On September 4, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and its subsidiary CF Industries, Inc. entered into a $750 million senior unsecured First Amended and Restated Revolving Credit Agreement with Citibank as the administrative agent. This agreement, which extends the company’s revolving credit facility to September 4, 2030, aims to support various corporate purposes, including working capital and acquisitions, and reflects the company’s strategic financial planning to maintain operational flexibility and leverage management.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Buy with a $94.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

CF Industries Announces CEO Transition Plan

On September 5, 2025, CF Industries Holdings announced that W. Anthony Will will retire as president and CEO on January 4, 2026, with Christopher D. Bohn elected as his successor. Mr. Will, who has led the company since 2014, will continue as a senior advisor until March 15, 2026, and will not seek re-election to the board in 2026. Mr. Bohn, currently the executive vice president and COO, has been with CF Industries for 16 years and has played a key role in strategic initiatives such as the Blue Point joint venture and the acquisition of the Waggaman ammonia facility. His appointment reflects the board’s confidence in his leadership and strategic vision to continue the company’s growth and focus on clean energy solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Buy with a $94.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.