Cf Industries Holdings (CF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.96B
• Dividend Yield: 2.32%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.59M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.21
• Revenue Growth: 9.53%
• EPS Growth: 36.15%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,800
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 2.36
• Shares Outstanding: 161,972,960
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,625,600
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,594,922
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.67
• 1Y Price Target: $94.83
• Price Target Upside: 10.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $95.00 ▲(10.25% Upside)

CF Industries Holdings scores well due to its strong financial performance and strategic initiatives in sustainability. The low P/E ratio and attractive dividend yield add to its appeal. However, technical indicators suggest caution in the short term, and operational challenges need to be addressed to maintain momentum.

Positive Factors

Carbon Management

The start-up of the CO2 dehydration and compression facility at CF's Donaldsonville Complex is seen as a positive step towards the company's decarbonization goals.

Earnings

3Q25 EPS is revised from $1.23 to $1.93, indicating an improvement in earnings per share expectations.

Negative Factors

Earnings Outlook

2027 EPS is revised from $5.69 to $4.89, reflecting lower earnings expectations for that year.

Market Competition

The nitrogen market is getting increasingly competitive, with several brown and greenfield hydrogen/ammonia projects potentially entering the market.

Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a leading global manufacturer and distributor of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, serving the agricultural sector. Headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois, the company operates in the agricultural products industry, focusing primarily on the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers such as ammonia, urea, and ammonium nitrate, as well as phosphate fertilizers. CF Industries plays a crucial role in the global food supply chain by providing essential nutrients that enhance crop yields and support sustainable agricultural practices.

How the Company Makes Money

CF Industries generates revenue primarily through the sale of its fertilizer products, which are sold to farmers, distributors, and agricultural cooperatives. The company's major revenue streams include the sale of nitrogen products, which account for the largest portion of its earnings, as well as phosphate fertilizers. CF Industries benefits from its extensive production capabilities, which include multiple manufacturing facilities strategically located to serve both domestic and international markets. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its distribution network and supply chain efficiency. Additionally, fluctuations in global agricultural commodity prices, government policies related to agriculture and environmental regulations, and demand for crop nutrients significantly influence the company's financial performance.

Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CF Industries Holdings demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and a stable balance sheet. While revenue and profit margins show positive trends, operational efficiency and cash flow generation face some challenges. The company is well-positioned in the agricultural inputs industry, but maintaining growth and improving cash flow metrics will be crucial for future performance.

Income Statement

CF Industries Holdings shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 35-38% and a net profit margin of approximately 20-23% in recent years. The TTM revenue growth rate of 5.19% indicates a positive trend after a decline in previous years. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased from their peak in 2022, suggesting some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio improving to 0.43 in TTM from higher levels in previous years. Return on equity remains robust at around 22.86% in TTM, though it has decreased from 2022. The equity ratio is stable, indicating a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a slight decline in free cash flow growth, with a negative growth rate in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.01, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has slightly decreased, reflecting potential challenges in maintaining cash flow levels.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.45B	5.94B	6.63B	11.19B	6.54B	4.12B
Gross Profit	2.29B	2.06B	2.54B	5.86B	2.39B	801.00M
EBITDA	2.93B	2.81B	3.27B	6.28B	3.07B	1.53B
Net Income	1.30B	1.22B	1.52B	3.35B	1.26B	432.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.75B	13.47B	14.38B	13.31B	12.38B	12.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.69B	1.61B	2.03B	2.32B	1.63B	683.00M
Total Debt	3.33B	3.25B	3.23B	3.23B	3.72B	4.22B
Total Liabilities	5.93B	5.87B	6.00B	5.46B	6.34B	6.42B
Stockholders Equity	4.96B	4.99B	5.72B	5.05B	3.21B	2.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.79B	1.75B	2.26B	3.39B	2.35B	922.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.50B	2.27B	2.76B	3.85B	2.87B	1.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-468.00M	-469.00M	-1.68B	-440.00M	-466.00M	-299.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.17B	-2.21B	-1.37B	-2.70B	-1.46B	-542.00M

Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 86.17
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 86.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.68, below the 50-day MA of 91.28, and above the 200-day MA of 85.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CF.

Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UAN	75 Outperform	$954.54M	10.82	28.37%	10.07%	8.15%	77.68%
CF	71 Outperform	$13.96B	11.31	24.98%	2.32%	9.53%	36.15%
MOS	66 Neutral	$10.33B	11.04	7.80%	2.60%	-7.71%	297.49%
ICL	63 Neutral	$8.13B	22.15	6.24%	2.88%	-1.22%	-14.31%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.28B	6.36	0.75%	2.93%	3.32%	-39.60%
FMC	58 Neutral	$5.01B	51.65	2.88%	5.78%	1.16%	-92.85%
SMG	54 Neutral	$3.58B	82.62	4.98%	4.24%	-2.05%	―

Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events

CF Industries Announces Leadership Transition Plan

On July 24, 2025, CF Industries Holdings announced the retirement of Ashraf K. Malik, Senior Vice President of Manufacturing and Distribution, effective April 1, 2026. Trevor Williams, with over 30 years of experience in the nitrogen and chemicals manufacturing industry, will succeed Malik. Williams’ extensive background in safety and leadership is expected to support CF Industries’ ongoing commitment to operational excellence.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Buy with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

CF Industries Unveils Low-Carbon Ammonia Strategy

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. announced during its Investor Day on June 24, 2025, that it is advancing its strategic plans to produce low-carbon ammonia and develop carbon capture and sequestration projects. These initiatives are part of the company’s efforts to transition to a hydrogen economy and meet greenhouse gas reduction targets. The announcement highlights the company’s focus on sustainable growth and its commitment to addressing environmental challenges, which could impact its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Hold with a $81.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.