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Cf Industries Holdings
(NYSE:CF)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$116.00
▲(2.95% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial fundamentals (high margins, solid free cash flow, and improving leverage) and attractive valuation (low P/E), partially offset by weak near-term technical momentum (below key short-term moving averages with negative MACD). Earnings call commentary was constructive on cash generation and market tightness but acknowledged meaningful external and input-cost volatility.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow and healthy free cash flow provide durable funding for capital projects, dividends, buybacks and debt reduction. Over 2–6 months this underpins financial flexibility and strategic optionality, enabling investment in Blue Point and shareholder returns despite cyclicality.
Negative Factors
Natural gas feedstock exposure
Ammonia production is highly dependent on natural gas costs; unhedged exposure creates meaningful margin volatility. Over months, volatile gas prices can swing cash flow, stress coverage ratios during downturns, and complicate planning for large capex and returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow and healthy free cash flow provide durable funding for capital projects, dividends, buybacks and debt reduction. Over 2–6 months this underpins financial flexibility and strategic optionality, enabling investment in Blue Point and shareholder returns despite cyclicality.
Read all positive factors
Cf Industries Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Production Volume by Segment
Indicates the output levels across different segments, providing insight into operational efficiency and capacity utilization.
Indicates the output levels across different segments, providing insight into operational efficiency and capacity utilization.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCf Industries Holdings (CF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.81B
Dividend Yield2.56%
Average Volume (3M)3.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)-0.15
Revenue Growth20.85%
EPS Growth46.79%
CountryUS
Employees2,800
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.15
Shares Outstanding153,629,270
10 Day Avg. Volume3,158,802
30 Day Avg. Volume2,996,085
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)2.59
Price to Sales (P/S)1.77
P/FCF Ratio6.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$129.10Price Target Upside14.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)17.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.58B
Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global producer and distributor of hydrogen and nitrogen-based products. These essential chemicals serve a variety of purposes worldwide, including energy generation, agricultural fertilization, environmental emis...
How the Company Makes Money
CF Industries makes money primarily by producing nitrogen-based products and selling them at market prices through a mix of direct customer sales and distribution channels. The company’s largest revenue stream comes from nitrogen fertilizers (nota...
Cf Industries Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong company-level fundamentals—robust adjusted EBITDA (~$983M), substantial trailing twelve-month cash generation (~$2.7B from operations and ~$1.65B free cash flow), near-100% ammonia utilization, disciplined capital allocation (Blue Point, ~$950M company capex portion in 2026), and active shareholder returns—positioning CF Industries to benefit from tighter global nitrogen markets. However, material industry-wide headwinds from geopolitical disruptions, export restrictions, elevated freight and insurance costs, and significant offline capacity create sustained market tightness and elevated prices into 2027. On balance, management framed these challenges as supportive of CF Industries’ advantaged North American, low-risk network and enhanced project economics (including decarbonized product premiums and Blue Point returns), leading to a constructive outlook for company cash generation and strategic optionality despite meaningful near-term market risks.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Net Earnings
Adjusted EBITDA of $983 million for the quarter and EBITDA of approximately $1.0 billion; net earnings attributable to common stockholders of ~$615 million, or $3.98 per diluted share. Results included a one-time litigation gain of ~ $170 million recorded in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Severe Geopolitical Disruptions Tightening Global Supply
Conflict with Iran, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and continued Russia-Ukraine disruptions substantially tightened global nitrogen markets; lost and damaged production and disrupted vessel movements create a multi-month (or longer) supply tail that cannot be quickly recovered.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Net Earnings
Adjusted EBITDA of $983 million for the quarter and EBITDA of approximately $1.0 billion; net earnings attributable to common stockholders of ~$615 million, or $3.98 per diluted share. Results included a one-time litigation gain of ~ $170 million recorded in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call CF Industries provided a data‑heavy outlook: reported adjusted EBITDA of $983 million (EBITDA ~ $1.0 billion), net earnings of ~ $615 million or $3.98 per diluted share (including a ~$170 million litigation gain); a trailing‑12‑month recordable incident rate of 0.16 per 200,000 hours and nearly 100% available ammonia capacity (a delayed turnaround added ~100,000 tons of urea for spring); trailing‑12‑month net cash from operations of ~ $2.7 billion and free cash flow of ~ $1.65 billion; 2026 consolidated capex guidance of ~ $1.3 billion (CF’s share ~ $950 million, including ~$550 million sustaining and ~$400 million for Blue Point JV/common infrastructure), with Blue Point expected to add >1.5 million tons of gross ammonia capacity when online late 2029 and construction to start once permits are obtained; Q1 share repurchases were ~150,000 shares for $15 million with ~$1.7 billion remaining on the authorization; management expects global nitrogen markets to remain tight through 2026 into 2027 (citing ~31 Middle East ammonia plants, ~49 curtailed plants in India/Pakistan/Bangladesh, and ~20–21 Russian plants impacted), estimates India imports of 10–12 million metric tons, notes a potential ~5 million‑ton shortfall in traded supply, and discussed gas price dynamics (Q1 gas ~ $4.50/MMBtu, February > $7/MMBtu, current around $2.60/MMBtu) with gas costs expected to track the NYMEX strip.Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
77
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.41B | 7.08B | 5.94B | 6.63B | 11.19B | 6.54B |
| Gross Profit | 2.99B | 2.72B | 2.06B | 2.65B | 5.89B | 2.36B |
| EBITDA | 3.71B | 3.29B | 2.83B | 3.27B | 6.28B | 2.61B |
| Net Income | 1.76B | 1.46B | 1.22B | 1.52B | 3.35B | 917.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.61B | 14.09B | 13.47B | 14.38B | 13.31B | 12.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.04B | 1.98B | 1.61B | 2.03B | 2.32B | 1.63B |
| Total Debt | 3.62B | 3.95B | 3.25B | 3.23B | 3.23B | 3.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.35B | 6.31B | 5.87B | 6.00B | 5.46B | 6.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.34B | 4.84B | 4.99B | 5.72B | 5.05B | 3.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.62B | 1.80B | 1.75B | 2.26B | 3.39B | 2.35B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.66B | 2.75B | 2.27B | 2.76B | 3.85B | 2.87B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.03B | -933.00M | -469.00M | -1.68B | -440.00M | -466.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.01B | -1.48B | -2.21B | -1.37B | -2.70B | -1.46B |
Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
112.68
Price Trends
116.64
Negative
114.58
Negative
98.71
Positive
Market Momentum
-3.94
Negative
40.89
Neutral
44.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 112.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 108.57, below the 50-day MA of 116.64, and above the 200-day MA of 98.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CF.
Cf Industries Holdings Risk Analysis
Cf Industries Holdings disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cf Industries Holdings reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $15.81B | 9.03 | 35.17% | 2.56% | 20.85% | 46.79% | |
71 Outperform | $1.16B | 9.77 | 40.08% | 12.33% | 19.00% | 61.11% | |
66 Neutral | $4.07B | 35.63 | -33.72% | 4.52% | -1.89% | 216.52% | |
62 Neutral | $6.48B | 24.80 | 4.32% | 3.36% | 7.80% | -32.94% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
55 Neutral | $7.28B | 10.01 | 5.92% | 3.70% | 12.34% | -87.77% | |
45 Neutral | $1.44B | ― | -83.04% | 16.68% | -16.63% | -865.93% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CF
Cf Industries Holdings
105.40
15.33
17.02%
UAN
CVR Partners
112.41
33.48
42.41%
FMC
FMC
11.54
-29.06
-71.57%
MOS
Mosaic Co
22.44
-12.80
-36.33%
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
67.69
4.58
7.25%
ICL
Icl
5.01
-1.65
-24.76%
Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
CF Industries Appoints Andrew Scribner as New CFO
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. announced that its board elected Andrew T. Scribner as executive vice president and chief financial officer, with the appointment effective May 26, 2026. Scribner, 47, brings extensive finance leadershi...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
CF Industries Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 4, 2026
At its 2026 annual meeting of shareholders held on April 28, 2026, CF Industries shareholders elected all 11 director nominees to one-year terms, including executive and independent members such as Javed Ahmed, Christopher D. Bohn and Deborah L. D...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.