Cf Industries Holdings (CF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.32B
• Dividend Yield: 2.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.24
• Revenue Growth: 12.59%
• EPS Growth: 31.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,800
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 2.28
• Shares Outstanding: 155,974,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,392,213
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,343,254
• PEG Ratio: -0.87
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.04
• 1Y Price Target: $93.50
• Price Target Upside: 18.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.81
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.95B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $89.00 ▲(12.70% Upside)

CF Industries Holdings scores well due to strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including robust guidance and strategic initiatives. The low valuation and attractive dividend yield further support the score. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and challenges such as the Yazoo City incident and valuation disconnect pose risks.

Positive Factors

Environmental Achievements

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and investing in carbon capture projects enhance CF Industries' sustainability and regulatory compliance, supporting long-term operational viability and market reputation.

Strategic Growth Projects

The development of a major low-emissions ammonia plant positions CF Industries at the forefront of sustainable agricultural inputs, potentially expanding market share and future revenue streams.

Strong Cash Flow Generation

Robust cash flow conversion and strategic projects ensure financial flexibility and capacity for reinvestment, supporting long-term growth and shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Yazoo City Incident

Operational disruptions from the Yazoo City incident could impact production and financial performance, highlighting potential risks in operational management.

Valuation Disconnect

A persistent valuation disconnect may reflect market skepticism about future growth prospects, potentially affecting investor confidence and capital access.

Cost Challenges

Rising costs due to inflation and increased maintenance expenses could pressure margins and limit financial flexibility, impacting long-term profitability.

Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global leader in the production and distribution of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. Headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois, the company operates in the agricultural sector, focusing on enhancing crop yields and improving sustainability in farming. CF Industries manufactures a variety of fertilizer products, including urea, ammonium nitrate, and urea ammonium nitrate solutions, which are essential for agricultural productivity. The company serves a wide range of customers, including farmers, distributors, and retailers, primarily in North America and Europe.

How the Company Makes Money

CF Industries generates revenue primarily through the sale of its nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products. The company's revenue model is based on selling these products to agricultural customers, which include farmers and distributors. Key revenue streams include the sale of urea, ammonium nitrate, and other nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are sold at market-driven prices influenced by factors such as crop demand, production costs, and global commodity prices. Additionally, CF Industries benefits from long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with agricultural cooperatives and distributors, enabling them to secure stable sales channels. The company's investments in production facilities, particularly its state-of-the-art nitrogen production plants, also contribute to its competitive advantage and profitability. Overall, CF Industries' earnings are significantly impacted by agricultural trends, global fertilizer demand, and fluctuations in natural gas prices, which is a critical input in nitrogen fertilizer production.

Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

CF Industries Holdings demonstrates a solid financial performance with strong profitability and moderate leverage. The company shows positive revenue growth and effective equity utilization, although there are some concerns regarding declining free cash flow growth and operational efficiency.

Income Statement

CF Industries Holdings shows a strong financial performance with a solid gross profit margin of 38.65% and a net profit margin of 20.20% for TTM. The revenue growth rate of 4.48% indicates a positive trajectory compared to the previous period. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased, suggesting some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is robust at 26.14%, showcasing effective utilization of equity. However, the equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, which could provide further insights into asset financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a slight decline in free cash flow growth at -4.20%, which could be a concern if it continues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.01, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.71 suggests that a significant portion of net income is converted into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.74B	5.94B	6.63B	11.19B	6.54B	4.12B
Gross Profit	2.68B	2.06B	2.65B	5.89B	2.36B	834.00M
EBITDA	3.12B	2.83B	3.27B	6.28B	2.61B	1.53B
Net Income	1.38B	1.22B	1.52B	3.35B	917.00M	317.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.20B	13.47B	14.38B	13.31B	12.38B	12.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.84B	1.61B	2.03B	2.32B	1.63B	683.00M
Total Debt	3.40B	3.25B	3.23B	3.23B	3.72B	4.22B
Total Liabilities	6.51B	5.87B	6.00B	5.46B	6.34B	6.42B
Stockholders Equity	4.85B	4.99B	5.72B	5.05B	3.21B	2.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.71B	1.75B	2.26B	3.39B	2.35B	922.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.63B	2.27B	2.76B	3.85B	2.87B	1.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-903.00M	-469.00M	-1.68B	-440.00M	-466.00M	-299.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.76B	-2.21B	-1.37B	-2.70B	-1.46B	-542.00M

Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 78.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 78.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.89, below the 50-day MA of 84.42, and below the 200-day MA of 84.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CF.

Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UAN	74 Outperform	$1.01B	7.93	42.00%	12.57%	16.52%	141.96%
CF	72 Outperform	$12.32B	9.52	27.46%	2.53%	12.59%	31.40%
MOS	65 Neutral	$7.74B	6.33	10.00%	3.57%	3.82%	239.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ICL	60 Neutral	$7.36B	20.04	6.15%	3.09%	1.77%	-8.72%
SMG	54 Neutral	$3.31B	23.04	―	4.63%	-3.93%	―
FMC	48 Neutral	$1.71B	―	-11.52%	16.93%	-13.42%	-136.59%

Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events

CF Industries Reports Strong Earnings and Strategic Growth

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, primarily operating in the chemical industry with a focus on sustainable practices and low-carbon solutions.

CF Industries Holdings Secures $750 Million Credit Agreement

On September 4, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and its subsidiary CF Industries, Inc. entered into a $750 million senior unsecured First Amended and Restated Revolving Credit Agreement with Citibank as the administrative agent. This agreement, which extends the company’s revolving credit facility to September 4, 2030, aims to support various corporate purposes, including working capital and acquisitions, and reflects the company’s strategic financial planning to maintain operational flexibility and leverage management.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Buy with a $94.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

CF Industries Announces CEO Transition Plan

On September 5, 2025, CF Industries Holdings announced that W. Anthony Will will retire as president and CEO on January 4, 2026, with Christopher D. Bohn elected as his successor. Mr. Will, who has led the company since 2014, will continue as a senior advisor until March 15, 2026, and will not seek re-election to the board in 2026. Mr. Bohn, currently the executive vice president and COO, has been with CF Industries for 16 years and has played a key role in strategic initiatives such as the Blue Point joint venture and the acquisition of the Waggaman ammonia facility. His appointment reflects the board’s confidence in his leadership and strategic vision to continue the company’s growth and focus on clean energy solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Buy with a $94.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

CF Industries Reports Strong Earnings Amid Market Challenges

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. recently held an earnings call that showcased a strong financial and operational performance, highlighting significant progress in strategic initiatives and favorable market conditions. Despite these positive outcomes, the call also addressed concerns regarding operational disruptions, farmer economics, and geopolitical challenges impacting the supply chain.

CF Industries Reports Strong Earnings Amid Strategic Advances

CF Industries Holdings, Inc., a prominent player in the hydrogen and nitrogen products sector, continues to make strides in the global market with its extensive manufacturing and distribution network. The company, headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, is recognized for its commitment to sustainable energy solutions and its significant role in the nitrogen industry.