Cf Industries Holdings (CF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.95B
• Dividend Yield: 2.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.23
• Revenue Growth: 12.59%
• EPS Growth: 31.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,800
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 2.73
• Shares Outstanding: 155,974,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,237,338
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,276,417
• PEG Ratio: 0.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.77
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.33
• 1Y Price Target: $92.75
• Price Target Upside: -4.56% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $114.00 ▲(17.31% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, robust operating cash flow and free cash flow, and improved leverage). Valuation is supportive with a low P/E and a reasonable dividend. Technicals are constructive with price above key moving averages, while the earnings outlook is tempered by the Yazoo City outage and large-project/policy execution risks.

Positive Factors

Cash generation / Free cash flow

Consistent robust operating cash flow and roughly $1.8B in free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility. This cash capacity funds sustaining capex, strategic growth (Blue Point share), sizable buybacks, and debt refinancing without relying on dilutive capital—key for resilience through fertilizer cycles.

High profitability and returns

Sustained high EBITDA and net margins with strong ROE reflect structural cost advantages, scale and pricing power in nitrogen production. These durable profitability metrics support reinvestment, dividends/buybacks and balance sheet improvement even when commodity cycles soften, underpinning long-term shareholder optionality.

Decarbonization platform & Blue Point FID

Achieving FID for Blue Point and operating Donaldsonville CCS embeds CF into low-carbon ammonia supply. JV clarity and initial low-carbon sales create a durable strategic growth channel and potential premium pricing, diversifying revenue beyond commodity fertilizers and positioning CF for longer-term demand shifts.

Negative Factors

Yazoo City outage and earnings hit

The prolonged Yazoo City outage removes permanent network capacity for an extended period and generates a material EBITDA shortfall (~$200M). Extended downtime strains ability to meet contracts, increases reliance on remaining plants and insurance timing, and reduces margin headroom during tight market windows.

Execution & timing risk for Blue Point

Blue Point’s large capex and remaining permits/long‑lead items create multi-year execution risk. Cost or schedule slippage would delay revenue from low‑carbon ammonia, require additional funding or contingency drawdowns, and compress expected returns—a structural operational risk to the growth platform.

Policy/regulatory uncertainty for low‑carbon premiums

Premiums and incentives from CBAM/45V materially influence the economics of low‑carbon ammonia. Ongoing regulatory uncertainty leaves future revenue and project IRRs ambiguous, creating structural risk to returns on decarbonization investments and to forecasts for long‑term demand for premium products.

Cf Industries Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

CF Industries generates revenue primarily through the sale of its nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products. The company's revenue model is based on selling these products to agricultural customers, which include farmers and distributors. Key revenue streams include the sale of urea, ammonium nitrate, and other nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are sold at market-driven prices influenced by factors such as crop demand, production costs, and global commodity prices. Additionally, CF Industries benefits from long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with agricultural cooperatives and distributors, enabling them to secure stable sales channels. The company's investments in production facilities, particularly its state-of-the-art nitrogen production plants, also contribute to its competitive advantage and profitability. Overall, CF Industries' earnings are significantly impacted by agricultural trends, global fertilizer demand, and fluctuations in natural gas prices, which is a critical input in nitrogen fertilizer production.

Cf Industries Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and cash generation: TTM net margin ~20.5%, EBITDA margin ~34.2%, operating cash flow $2.75B and free cash flow $1.80B. Balance sheet leverage is manageable (debt-to-equity ~0.47) with healthy ROE (~26%). Main risk is cyclicality, with margins materially below the 2022 peak.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rebounded to $7.08B (+5.2% growth) after a weaker 2023–2024 period, while profitability remains strong with ~20.5% net margin and ~34.2% EBITDA margin. That said, margins are well below the 2022 peak (net margin ~29.9%), highlighting meaningful cyclicality in pricing/earnings power for the business.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with debt-to-equity at ~0.47 and equity up to $7.78B, a clear improvement versus 2020–2021 when debt-to-equity was above 1.0. Returns on equity are healthy (~26%), but the balance sheet’s strength is partly tied to cycle-driven profitability and prior years show the company can run with higher leverage when conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is $2.75B and free cash flow is $1.80B (+5.3%), supporting strong financial flexibility. Operating cash flow runs well ahead of net income (~2.5x), though free cash flow conversion is moderate (free cash flow at ~67% of net income), indicating some ongoing reinvestment and/or working-capital swings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.08B	5.94B	6.63B	11.19B	6.54B
Gross Profit	2.72B	2.06B	2.65B	5.89B	2.36B
EBITDA	3.26B	2.83B	3.27B	6.28B	2.61B
Net Income	1.46B	1.22B	1.52B	3.35B	917.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.09B	13.47B	14.38B	13.31B	12.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.98B	1.61B	2.03B	2.32B	1.63B
Total Debt	3.64B	3.25B	3.23B	3.23B	3.72B
Total Liabilities	6.31B	5.87B	6.00B	5.46B	6.34B
Stockholders Equity	7.78B	4.99B	5.72B	5.05B	3.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.80B	1.75B	2.26B	3.39B	2.35B
Operating Cash Flow	2.75B	2.27B	2.76B	3.85B	2.87B
Investing Cash Flow	-933.00M	-469.00M	-1.68B	-440.00M	-466.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.48B	-2.21B	-1.37B	-2.70B	-1.46B

Cf Industries Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 97.18
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 97.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 93.65, above the 50-day MA of 85.57, and above the 200-day MA of 86.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CF.

Cf Industries Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	79 Outperform	$14.95B	10.68	29.62%	2.56%	12.59%	31.40%
UAN	68 Neutral	$1.14B	11.57	35.31%	12.33%	16.52%	141.96%
MOS	65 Neutral	$9.34B	7.64	10.00%	3.70%	3.82%	239.39%
SMG	62 Neutral	$4.05B	47.24	―	4.52%	-3.93%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ICL	60 Neutral	$7.10B	31.41	3.86%	3.36%	1.77%	-8.72%
FMC	49 Neutral	$1.81B	―	-66.80%	16.68%	-13.42%	-136.59%

Cf Industries Holdings Corporate Events

CF Industries JV Solidified as JERA Option Expires

On April 8, 2025, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. announced the formation of Blue Point Number One, LLC, a joint venture with Japan’s largest energy company JERA Co., Inc. and global investment and trading firm Mitsui & Co., Ltd. to construct, produce and market low-carbon ammonia, with ownership split 40% to CF Industries, 35% to JERA and 25% to Mitsui. As part of the original agreement, JERA held a conditional option to reduce its stake to as low as 20% with CF Industries required to increase its ownership by the same amount, but that option has now expired unexercised, clarifying the long-term ownership structure and signaling continued commitment from all three partners to the low-carbon ammonia project.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Sell with a $78.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

CF Industries appoints interim CFO amid leadership transition

On January 5, 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and its executive vice president and chief financial officer, Gregory D. Cameron, agreed that Cameron will leave the company effective February 15, 2026, marking a planned leadership transition in the finance function. On January 6, 2026, the company named long-time vice president, corporate controller and chief accounting officer, Richard A. Hoker, as interim CFO effective the same date, while it conducts a search for a permanent successor. Hoker, a seasoned finance executive with prior experience at Sara Lee and Coopers & Lybrand and credentials including CPA and an MBA in finance and accounting, steps into the interim role without any related-party concerns disclosed, and existing compensation arrangements for both executives remain unchanged as the company navigates this transition in its senior financial leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Hold with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.

CF Industries Completes $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On November 26, 2025, CF Industries, Inc., a subsidiary of CF Industries Holdings, Inc., completed a public offering of $1 billion in 5.300% Senior Notes due 2035. The offering, fully guaranteed by the parent company, was executed under an Indenture agreement with Wilmington Trust and involved several covenants and restrictions. The issuance aims to strengthen the company’s financial position and provide flexibility for future operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (CF) stock is a Buy with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cf Industries Holdings stock, see the CF Stock Forecast page.