Want to see SMG full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
(NYSE:SMG)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$67.00
▼(-3.33% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet risk (negative equity and high debt) and weak recent revenue trajectory despite improved profitability and cash generation. Offsetting factors include constructive earnings-call momentum (raised EPS guidance, improving YTD margins, strong e-commerce growth) and a mixed-but-stable technical setup with longer-term trend support. Valuation remains a headwind due to a high P/E, only partly cushioned by the ~4% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Scotts generates durable operating and free cash flow (~$369M OCF, ~$326M FCF TTM), which provides a multi-quarter funding source for debt reduction, reinvestment in SMG 2.0 initiatives, and shareholder actions. Strong cash conversion cushions profits volatility and supports gradual deleveraging.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet
Negative equity and ~$2.1B of debt materially constrain financial flexibility, heighten refinancing and covenant risk, and limit capacity for aggressive buybacks or M&A. This structural capital deficit makes multi-year deleveraging essential before returning to a conservative capital posture.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Scotts generates durable operating and free cash flow (~$369M OCF, ~$326M FCF TTM), which provides a multi-quarter funding source for debt reduction, reinvestment in SMG 2.0 initiatives, and shareholder actions. Strong cash conversion cushions profits volatility and supports gradual deleveraging.
Read all positive factors
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much each business unit contributes to total revenue, offering insights into diversification and which segments drive growth.
Shows how much each business unit contributes to total revenue, offering insights into diversification and which segments drive growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyScotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.55B
Dividend Yield4.33%
Average Volume (3M)870.12K
Price to Earnings (P/E)48.8
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth-1.95%
EPS Growth44.91%
CountryUS
Employees5,200
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.25
Shares Outstanding58,220,276
10 Day Avg. Volume1,010,843
30 Day Avg. Volume870,121
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-9.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.96
P/FCF Ratio11.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$69.90Price Target Upside0.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)4.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.29B
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) stands as a leading producer and global distributor of products dedicated to lawn and garden upkeep, as well as specialized indoor and hydroponic cultivation. The company's operations are strategically divided ...
How the Company Makes Money
SMG makes money primarily by selling branded lawn and garden consumables and related products to retailers and distributors, which then sell to end consumers. Its largest revenue stream comes from its U.S. Consumer segment, where revenue is genera...
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive picture of strategic progress: branded portfolio expansion, strong e-commerce momentum (+27% e‑com POS YTD), YTD margin improvement (+130 bps GAAP YTD), improved YTD EBITDA (+5%) and an upward revision to non‑GAAP EPS guidance. At the same time, the quarter experienced near-term pressure from commodity and freight cost volatility (a $15M incremental hit), one-time $64M charges that reduced GAAP quarterly earnings, and slightly elevated retailer inventories that could pressure Q4 sales. Management emphasized disciplined margin focus, active hedging, continued investment in innovation and digital, and a path to further deleveraging. Overall, positives around margin improvement, e-commerce and innovation materially outweigh the temporary headwinds, though risks remain for Q4 timing and commodity exposure.Positive Updates
Modest Top-Line Growth
Total company net sales increased 1% in Q3 to $1.17B and are up 2% year-to-date to $2.99B; U.S. Consumer net sales are up 2% YTD to $2.74B, tracking to the company's low-single-digit full-year net sales guidance.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Margin and EBITDA Pressure
Q3 GAAP gross margin rate declined to 31.2% (versus 32.1% prior year) and non-GAAP gross margin was 31.3% (versus 32.3% prior year). Q3 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA fell to $246.3M from $253.5M a year ago, driven by higher freight and commodity costs.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Modest Top-Line Growth
Total company net sales increased 1% in Q3 to $1.17B and are up 2% year-to-date to $2.99B; U.S. Consumer net sales are up 2% YTD to $2.74B, tracking to the company's low-single-digit full-year net sales guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance and raised non‑GAAP adjusted EPS from continuing operations to $4.30–$4.45 (from $4.15–$4.35); they expect full‑year net sales to land in low‑single‑digit growth (Q3 net sales $1.17B; YTD $2.99B; U.S. Consumer YTD $2.74B), with branded sales up 4.5% YTD, innovation contributing $75M this year and $278M from launches over the last three years, e‑commerce now 13% of POS (+300 bps y/y) and e‑com POS dollars +27% YTD. Gross margin expansion is on track (GAAP YTD 35.7%, +130 bps; non‑GAAP YTD 35.8% vs 34.7%), although the quarter was pressured (Q GAAP 31.2%, non‑GAAP 31.3%) by higher freight/commodity costs and a $15M incremental commodity impact this year; supply‑chain savings are expected to net roughly 1% of sales by year‑end. Profitability and balance‑sheet metrics show YTD non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA $686.6M (Q $246.3M), YTD non‑GAAP adjusted net income $390.2M ($6.60/sh), GAAP YTD net income $319.1M ($5.40/sh), interest expense down (Q $28M; YTD $86.5M), leverage improved to 3.78x from 4.15x with a target below 3.12x, SG&A running toward ~17–18% of sales, retailer inventories slightly elevated (high‑single‑digit %), and a plan to remove ~30% of lowest‑performing SKUs by the close of FY2027 (about two‑thirds of the way there).Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.37B | 3.41B | 3.55B | 3.55B | 3.92B | 4.92B |
| Gross Profit | 1.09B | 1.04B | 850.50M | 657.30M | 872.90M | 1.47B |
| EBITDA | 403.40M | 425.50M | 215.80M | -182.70M | -334.80M | 849.80M |
| Net Income | 74.00M | 145.20M | -34.90M | -380.10M | -437.50M | 512.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.17B | 2.74B | 2.87B | 3.41B | 4.30B | 4.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 27.70M | 36.60M | 71.60M | 31.90M | 86.80M | 244.10M |
| Total Debt | 2.11B | 2.38B | 2.52B | 2.91B | 3.27B | 2.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.38B | 3.10B | 3.26B | 3.68B | 4.15B | 3.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | -208.70M | -357.50M | -390.60M | -267.30M | 147.70M | 1.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 326.40M | 273.90M | 583.50M | 438.20M | -242.50M | 164.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 369.30M | 371.30M | 667.50M | 531.00M | -129.00M | 271.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -154.20M | -112.10M | -100.40M | -65.70M | -283.20M | -538.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -237.60M | -294.00M | -527.90M | -520.10M | 255.30M | 494.00M |
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Technical Analysis
Negative
69.31
Price Trends
65.42
Negative
63.22
Negative
61.44
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.39
Positive
37.99
Neutral
11.88
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 69.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.27, above the 50-day MA of 65.42, and above the 200-day MA of 61.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.88 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMG.
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Risk Analysis
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Scotts Miracle-Gro Company reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $1.31B | 8.15 | 51.56% | 9.98% | 17.47% | 82.16% | |
71 Outperform | $492.78M | 18.33 | 5.27% | ― | 4.20% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
57 Neutral | $7.16B | 22.94 | 5.02% | 3.61% | 10.92% | -16.91% | |
53 Neutral | $3.55B | 48.75 | -21.87% | 3.81% | -1.95% | 44.91% | |
51 Neutral | $6.87B | 108.05 | 0.36% | 3.95% | 8.84% | -167.87% | |
45 Neutral | $1.27B | -0.46 | -118.57% | 7.26% | -21.31% | -2884.91% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
60.94
0.84
1.40%
UAN
CVR Partners
123.50
42.07
51.66%
FMC
FMC
10.15
-26.50
-72.30%
IPI
Intrepid Potash
36.62
8.36
29.58%
MOS
Mosaic Co
21.61
-9.60
-30.75%
ICL
Icl
5.55
-0.51
-8.40%
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Scotts Miracle-Gro Names Nathan Baxter New CEO
Neutral
Jul 1, 2026
On June 29, 2026, Scotts Miracle-Gro announced that Nathan E. Baxter has been appointed President and Chief Executive Officer, effective June 26, 2026, and has joined the Board of Directors. Baxter, previously President and Chief Operating Officer...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.