Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)
NYSE:SMG
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Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
(NYSE:SMG)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$69.00
▲(13.77% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/05/26
The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet risk (negative equity and high debt) despite improved profitability and strong free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend, while valuation is mixed—high P/E offset by a solid dividend. Earnings-call guidance and improving leverage add confidence, but near-term losses, impairment, and execution requirements keep risk elevated.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Consistently strong trailing‑12‑month operating cash flow and free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capex, deleveraging and eventual shareholder returns. Sustained FCF underpins management’s ability to reduce leverage and fund strategic investments without solely relying on external capital.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet / negative equity
A negative equity position and sizable absolute debt create structural financial fragility: reduced loss absorption, higher refinancing vulnerability, and constrained financial flexibility. This limits the company's ability to pursue opportunistic M&A or aggressive buybacks until leverage and equity are meaningfully improved.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
Consistently strong trailing‑12‑month operating cash flow and free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capex, deleveraging and eventual shareholder returns. Sustained FCF underpins management’s ability to reduce leverage and fund strategic investments without solely relying on external capital.
Read all positive factors
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.52B
Dividend Yield4.52%
Average Volume (3M)830.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth-3.93%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,300
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.77
Shares Outstanding58,039,753
10 Day Avg. Volume915,942
30 Day Avg. Volume830,102
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-9.18
Price to Sales (P/S)0.96
P/FCF Ratio11.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.80
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$74.00Price Target Upside22.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)4.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.31B
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of products for lawn, garden care, and indoor and hydroponic gardening in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: U.S. Consu...
How the Company Makes Money
Scotts Miracle-Gro generates revenue through the sale of its extensive product portfolio, which is primarily categorized into two segments: the Consumer segment and the Professional segment. The Consumer segment includes products sold directly to ...
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much each business unit contributes to total revenue, offering insights into diversification and which segments drive growth.
Shows how much each business unit contributes to total revenue, offering insights into diversification and which segments drive growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyScotts Miracle-Gro Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple clear operational and financial improvements (gross margin expansion, reduced interest expense, stronger free cash flow, improved leverage, e-commerce growth, and a new disciplined $500M share repurchase program) and laid out an ambitious long-term growth target through 2030. There are notable near-term negatives — a $105M Hawthorne impairment, ongoing first-quarter losses, seasonality/timing risks, and elevated CapEx — but management presented a coherent plan to address leverage, focus the portfolio, and invest behind high-margin branded growth. On balance, the positive operational trends, cash generation, investor-friendly capital actions, and clear long-term strategy outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Share Repurchase Program and Capital Allocation
Board approved a multi-year $500 million share repurchase program beginning in late 2026, targeted long-term share count of ~40 million shares; repurchases to be disciplined and tied to leverage targets (will begin once leverage is comfortably below 4x) and funded by free cash flow.
Negative Updates
Hawthorne Impairment Charge
Recorded a pretax asset impairment charge of $105 million within loss from discontinued operations representing excess of carrying value over estimated selling price for Hawthorne; prior results will be recast and Hawthorne removal reduces 2025 adjusted EBITDA by ~ $11 million.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Share Repurchase Program and Capital Allocation
Board approved a multi-year $500 million share repurchase program beginning in late 2026, targeted long-term share count of ~40 million shares; repurchases to be disciplined and tied to leverage targets (will begin once leverage is comfortably below 4x) and funded by free cash flow.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated fiscal 2026 guidance calling for U.S. consumer net sales growth in the low single digits, a non‑GAAP adjusted gross margin rate of at least 32%, non‑GAAP adjusted earnings from continuing operations of $4.15–$4.35 per share, non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA growth in the mid‑single digits, and $275 million of free cash flow with leverage coming down to the “high threes”; management said its sweet spot is 3.0–3.5x net debt/EBITDA and plans a measured $500 million multi‑year share repurchase program beginning in late 2026 (targeting ~40 million shares over time) once leverage is comfortably below 4x. For context, Q1 (ex‑Hawthorne) net sales were $354.4 million (U.S. consumer $328.5 million, ~10% of the year), GAAP gross margin was 25.0% (non‑GAAP 25.4%), Q1 non‑GAAP adjusted loss was $0.77 per share, interest expense was $27.2 million (down 20%), net debt/adjusted EBITDA fell to 4.03x (from 4.52x), free cash flow was favorably impacted by $78 million in the quarter, Hawthorne’s classification as discontinued improved gross margin by ~40 bps but triggered a $105 million pretax impairment, e‑commerce branded POS was up 12% (units +17%) and represented 14% of branded POS (up 150 bps), and the company is investing incremental $30 million this year (total $130 million) in supply chain plus $25 million in brand/media.Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.35B | 3.41B | 3.55B | 3.55B | 3.92B | 4.92B |
| Gross Profit | 1.04B | 1.04B | 850.50M | 657.30M | 872.90M | 1.47B |
| EBITDA | 448.60M | 425.50M | 215.80M | -182.70M | -334.80M | 849.80M |
| Net Income | 89.80M | 145.20M | -34.90M | -380.10M | -437.50M | 512.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.03B | 2.74B | 2.87B | 3.41B | 4.30B | 4.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.30M | 36.60M | 71.60M | 31.90M | 86.80M | 244.10M |
| Total Debt | 2.53B | 2.38B | 2.52B | 2.91B | 3.27B | 2.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.53B | 3.10B | 3.26B | 3.68B | 4.15B | 3.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | -500.60M | -357.50M | -390.60M | -267.30M | 147.70M | 1.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 358.10M | 273.90M | 583.50M | 438.20M | -242.50M | 164.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 446.20M | 371.30M | 667.50M | 531.00M | -129.00M | 271.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -110.60M | -112.10M | -100.40M | -65.70M | -283.20M | -538.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -334.90M | -294.00M | -527.90M | -520.10M | 255.30M | 494.00M |
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Technical Analysis
Negative
60.65
Price Trends
65.19
Negative
60.79
Negative
60.27
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.63
Positive
40.01
Neutral
39.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 60.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.48, below the 50-day MA of 65.19, and above the 200-day MA of 60.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMG.
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Risk Analysis
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Scotts Miracle-Gro Company reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $623.69M | -212.04 | 2.30% | ― | 8.88% | -349.99% | |
68 Neutral | $7.94B | 14.14 | 9.96% | 3.70% | 3.82% | 239.39% | |
67 Neutral | $1.45B | 10.98 | 32.82% | 12.33% | 16.52% | 141.96% | |
62 Neutral | $3.52B | -6.71 | -27.23% | 4.52% | -3.93% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $6.71B | 32.61 | 3.77% | 3.36% | 1.77% | -8.72% | |
49 Neutral | $1.97B | -0.78 | -61.24% | 16.68% | -13.42% | -136.59% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
60.65
8.11
15.44%
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Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Scotts Miracle-Gro expands equity incentives after shareholder approvals
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
At its January 26, 2026 virtual annual meeting, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company’s shareholders approved an amendment and restatement of the company’s Long-Term Incentive Plan, increasing the pool of common shares available for grants by...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Scotts Miracle-Gro Secures $2 Billion Loan Facilities
Positive
Nov 24, 2025
On November 21, 2025, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company entered into a Seventh Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, securing $2.0 billion in senior secured loan facilities, which includes a $1.5 billion revolving credit facility and a $500 million ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Scotts Miracle-Gro Updates Long-Term Incentive Plan
Neutral
Nov 12, 2025
On November 13, 2025, Scotts Miracle-Gro Company will implement a new form of restricted stock unit award notice for certain employees, including executive officers, as part of its Long-Term Incentive Plan. This change is expected to impact the co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.