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Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA)
NASDAQ:RKDA
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Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA) AI Stock Analysis

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RKDA

Arcadia Biosciences

(NASDAQ:RKDA)

Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(50.00% Upside)
Arcadia Biosciences' overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial challenges, including declining revenue and profitability issues. However, positive developments in the earnings call, such as Zola's revenue growth and strategic monetization efforts, provide some optimism. Technical analysis and valuation metrics indicate caution, with mixed signals and a negative P/E ratio.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Q4’24 results were ahead of expectations behind Zola coconut water growth of 124% via an 86% distribution increase.
Market Expansion
Zola’s 80% distribution expansion in 2024 to approximately 3,000 stores is providing considerable visibility for year-over-year growth.
Negative Factors
Portfolio Monetization
Management noted they continue to seek further monetization of legacy ag biotech IP and expect a series of transactions to unwind this portfolio.
Valuation Concern
Arcadia's current valuation levels are considered materially depressed relative to a post-merger fair value, making it an attractive option for special situation and/or merger arbitrage investors.

Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Arcadia Biosciences Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionArcadia Biosciences, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing agricultural products that enhance the nutritional quality of crops and promote sustainability. The company operates primarily in the agricultural biotechnology sector, leveraging its proprietary technology platforms to create products such as high-fiber wheat and enhanced omega-3 soybeans. Arcadia's mission is to address global food challenges by improving the nutritional content and environmental impact of crops, serving both farmers and consumers.
How the Company Makes MoneyArcadia Biosciences generates revenue through a combination of product sales, licensing agreements, and collaborations. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of its innovative crop products, such as its high-fiber wheat and omega-3 soybean products, which are marketed to food manufacturers and agricultural producers. Additionally, Arcadia engages in strategic partnerships with other agricultural companies to co-develop products and technologies, which can include upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on future sales. The company's focus on sustainability and nutrition has attracted interest from investors and partners, providing a supportive ecosystem for its revenue generation activities.

Arcadia Biosciences Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong start to 2025, with significant revenue growth in the Zola brand and effective cost control measures. However, challenges such as a decline in gross margin and an increase in inventory and cash consumption were noted. The pending business combination with Roosevelt Resources is a positive development, enhancing future prospects.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Zola Revenue Growth
Zola coconut water revenue grew 90% year-over-year, driven by a 70% increase in new distribution gains.
Strong Pipeline and Distribution Expansion
Zola is in discussions with new customers and distributors, representing more than 50% of its current customer base, and has already won new customer accounts in Q2.
Cost Control and Operating Expense Reduction
Operating expenses were reduced by 16% year-over-year, inclusive of transaction-related fees.
Monetization of Intellectual Property
Arcadia entered an agreement with BioSeries, resulting in $750,000 in cash and the elimination of a $1,000,000 contingent liability from the balance sheet.
Pending Business Combination
The business combination with Roosevelt Resources is on track to be completed by the end of the summer, providing Arcadia stockholders with a greater level of ownership certainty post-transaction.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Decline
The gross margin rate decreased to 43% in Q1 from 52% in Q1 of the previous year.
Inventory Increase
Inventory increased from $900,000 at the start of the year to $1,300,000, reflecting longer lead times from suppliers.
Reduced Cash Position
Cash decreased from $4,200,000 at the start of the year to $3,200,000 at the end of Q1.
Company Guidance
During the Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. first-quarter 2025 conference call, significant growth and strategic shifts were highlighted. The company reported a remarkable 90% year-over-year increase in revenue for its Zola coconut water, primarily due to a 70% rise in new distribution channels. Operating expenses saw a 16% reduction, despite incurring nearly half a million dollars in transaction-related fees. The gross margin stood at 43%, maintaining a trend of exceeding 30% for nine consecutive quarters. Arcadia continued to monetize its intellectual property, securing $750,000 in cash for certain soy patents, which allowed for the elimination of a $1,000,000 contingent liability. The pending business combination with Roosevelt Resources is progressing, aiming for completion by late summer, with a fixed equity share ratio of 90-10 between Roosevelt Partners and Arcadia stockholders. The call also mentioned a strong pipeline and new product innovations expected to further boost Zola's market presence. Overall, the company is focused on streamlining operations and enhancing financial performance in 2025.

Arcadia Biosciences Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Arcadia Biosciences is facing financial challenges, particularly with profitability and cash flow generation. Revenue has declined, and the company remains unprofitable, although it has managed to maintain a strong equity position with minimal debt. The company needs to address its operational efficiency and cash flow management to improve its financial stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Arcadia Biosciences has faced challenges in maintaining revenue growth and profitability. The revenue decreased slightly from $5.33 million in 2023 to $5.045 million in 2024, indicating a revenue decline of approximately 5.35%. The gross profit margin improved slightly, but the company remains unprofitable with a negative net income for the year ending 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a moderate level of financial stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.025, indicating low leverage. However, the return on equity remains negative due to consistent net losses. The equity ratio is 46%, indicating a solid equity position relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Arcadia Biosciences experienced substantial free cash flow challenges, with negative free cash flow growth. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting cash flow difficulties. However, cash flow from investing activities was positive, indicating some level of investment recovery.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.26M5.04M5.33M9.96M6.78M8.03M
Gross Profit2.08M2.08M2.03M154.00K-1.93M2.83M
EBITDA-5.47M-7.50M-13.58M-13.65M-23.27M-5.44M
Net Income-2.02M-7.04M-13.98M-15.61M-16.13M-6.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets12.99M13.52M19.70M28.92M43.92M47.35M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.16M4.24M11.64M20.64M28.68M25.67M
Total Debt21.00K155.00K1.01M2.02M3.29M9.35M
Total Liabilities4.08M7.29M7.00M8.02M12.72M18.80M
Stockholders Equity8.90M6.22M12.84M21.03M31.09M27.73M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-8.01M-9.64M-15.30M-14.05M-26.88M-32.55M
Operating Cash Flow-8.01M-9.63M-15.29M-13.98M-25.87M-30.22M
Investing Cash Flow7.84M7.34M-4.34M1.42M16.61M17.28M
Financing Cash Flow9.00K9.00K5.51M4.52M21.90M20.56M

Arcadia Biosciences Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.00
Price Trends
50DMA
4.33
Negative
100DMA
4.22
Negative
200DMA
4.26
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.30
Positive
RSI
22.22
Positive
STOCH
8.64
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RKDA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.12, below the 50-day MA of 4.33, and below the 200-day MA of 4.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.22 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.64 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RKDA.

Arcadia Biosciences Risk Analysis

Arcadia Biosciences disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Arcadia Biosciences reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Arcadia Biosciences Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
63
Neutral
$20.49B14.78-2.98%3.11%1.86%-5.76%
62
Neutral
$181.23M193.48-3.00%-13.98%-403.56%
55
Neutral
$153.53M-42.97%0.78%-9.57%-3226.39%
54
Neutral
$135.25M-973.22%57.83%40.94%
52
Neutral
$4.65M-87.18%1.50%-8.01%
44
Neutral
$170.80M-69.68%
41
Neutral
$8.47M2.75
-21.82%-104.92%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RKDA
Arcadia Biosciences
3.00
0.20
7.14%
AVD
American Vanguard
5.40
-0.73
-11.91%
SEED
Origin Agritech
0.91
-1.65
-64.45%
BHST
BioHarvest Sciences
7.61
1.98
35.17%
BIOX
Bioceres Crop Solutions
2.85
-7.51
-72.49%
LVRO
Lavoro Limited
1.43
-3.30
-69.77%

Arcadia Biosciences Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Arcadia Biosciences CFO Resignation Announced
Neutral
Aug 29, 2025

On August 26, 2025, Arcadia Biosciences‘ CFO, Mark Kawakami, announced his resignation effective September 12, 2025, with no disagreements cited as the reason. Thomas J. Schaefer, the company’s President and CEO, will assume the role of Interim CFO. Additionally, Arcadia is involved in a proposed all-stock transaction with Roosevelt Resources, with plans to issue shares in exchange for Roosevelt’s equity interests, pending regulatory approvals.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 21, 2025