Mosaic Co (MOS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.52B
• Dividend Yield: 2.94%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.91M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: -7.71%
• EPS Growth: 297.49%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,765
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 317,378,330
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,540,157
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,909,134
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.69
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.46
• 1Y Price Target: $37.75
• Price Target Upside: 27.71% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $32.00 ▲(8.25% Upside)

Mosaic Co's overall stock score is driven by a strong earnings call that highlights financial recovery and strategic advancements, particularly in potash production and cost reductions in Brazil. While the financial performance shows stability, challenges in profitability and cash flow management persist. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, but the stock's attractive valuation provides a counterbalance. The positive outlook for the second half of 2025, driven by market dynamics and strategic initiatives, supports a moderately favorable score.

Positive Factors

Market Expansion

The new facility in Brazil enhances Mosaic's distribution capacity, supporting long-term growth in a key market and improving market access.

Cost Reduction

Successful cost reductions improve profitability and operational efficiency, providing a durable competitive advantage in cost management.

Strong Potash Demand

Increased potash production guidance reflects robust demand, supporting revenue growth and market leadership in the fertilizer industry.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Declining cash flow growth limits Mosaic's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt, impacting long-term financial health.

Phosphate Production Issues

Production issues in the phosphate segment can hinder revenue and profitability, affecting Mosaic's competitive position in the market.

Regulatory Scrutiny

Antitrust investigations could lead to regulatory challenges, impacting Mosaic's operations and market strategies in the long term.

Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mosaic Co (MOS) is a leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, primarily serving the agricultural sector. The company operates through two main segments: Phosphates and Potash. The Phosphates segment focuses on producing phosphate fertilizers, which are essential for crop growth, while the Potash segment specializes in potash fertilizers that enhance water retention and nutrient absorption in crops. Mosaic Co is committed to sustainable agricultural practices and innovation in nutrient management, helping farmers maximize yield and efficiency.

How the Company Makes Money

Mosaic Co generates revenue primarily through the sale of its phosphate and potash fertilizers to farmers and agricultural retailers. The company benefits from a diverse customer base that includes both domestic and international markets, with significant sales occurring in North America, South America, and Asia. Revenue streams include the sale of bulk and packaged fertilizers, with pricing influenced by global commodity markets, agricultural demand, and production costs. Additionally, Mosaic has strategic partnerships and contracts with agricultural cooperatives and distribution networks that enhance its market reach and stability. The company also invests in research and development to improve product efficacy and sustainability, which can lead to increased sales and customer loyalty.

Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mosaic Co shows a stable financial position with a modest revenue growth and improved gross profit margin. However, net profit margin remains low, and cash flow management presents significant challenges, particularly in free cash flow generation.

Income Statement

Mosaic Co's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a modest revenue growth rate of 1.71% compared to the previous period, signaling a recovery from the previous year's decline. Gross profit margin has improved slightly to 14.47%, but net profit margin remains low at 3.32%, reflecting pressure on profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown improvement, indicating better operational efficiency. However, the company needs to focus on enhancing net profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Mosaic Co reflects a stable financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is at a manageable level of 0.41, indicating prudent leverage. Return on equity has improved to 3.15%, but it remains relatively low, suggesting room for better utilization of equity. The equity ratio is strong, highlighting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet suggests financial stability with potential for improved returns.

Cash Flow

Mosaic Co's cash flow statement reveals challenges in cash generation. The free cash flow growth rate has significantly declined by 97.98% in the TTM period, raising concerns about cash availability for investments and debt servicing. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.35, indicating adequate cash generation from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.15, highlighting the need for improved cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.25B	11.12B	13.70B	19.13B	12.36B	8.68B
Gross Profit	1.73B	1.51B	2.21B	5.76B	3.20B	1.06B
EBITDA	2.50B	1.57B	2.48B	5.75B	3.23B	1.24B
Net Income	940.00M	174.90M	1.16B	3.58B	1.63B	666.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.30B	22.92B	23.03B	23.39B	22.04B	19.79B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	286.20M	272.80M	348.80M	735.40M	769.50M	574.00M
Total Debt	4.63B	4.45B	3.99B	3.81B	4.41B	4.75B
Total Liabilities	11.72B	11.31B	10.60B	11.19B	11.29B	10.03B
Stockholders Equity	12.44B	11.48B	12.29B	12.05B	10.60B	9.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.30M	47.40M	1.00B	2.69B	898.40M	412.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.18B	1.30B	2.41B	3.94B	2.19B	1.58B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.18B	-1.26B	-1.32B	-1.26B	-1.32B	-1.19B
Financing Cash Flow	-114.40M	-131.90M	-1.48B	-2.68B	-682.10M	-283.80M

Mosaic Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 29.56
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.71, below the 50-day MA of 32.71, and below the 200-day MA of 30.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOS.

Mosaic Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	―	$14.01B	11.30	24.98%	2.31%	9.53%	36.15%
ICL	―	$8.47B	23.07	6.24%	2.69%	-1.22%	-14.31%
MOS	―	$9.52B	10.17	7.80%	2.94%	-7.71%	297.49%
Sector *	―	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
FMC	―	$3.80B	38.65	2.88%	7.57%	1.16%	-92.85%
IPI	―	$375.91M	-1.76	-34.48%	―	11.93%	-311.34%
SMG	―	$3.20B	72.29	―	4.79%	-2.05%	―

Mosaic Co Corporate Events

Mosaic Co’s Optimistic Earnings Call Highlights Growth

The Mosaic Company’s recent earnings call conveyed a strong positive sentiment for the remainder of the year, emphasizing improvements in asset reliability, cost reductions, and increased potash production. Despite these optimistic projections, the company acknowledged challenges such as extraordinary maintenance costs, production delays, and credit issues in Brazil, which could pose potential obstacles.

Mosaic Co. Reports Mixed Earnings Amid Market Challenges

The Mosaic Company is a leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, serving the global agricultural industry with a focus on sustainable practices.