Mosaic Co (MOS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.50B
• Dividend Yield: 3.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.89M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 3.82%
• EPS Growth: 239.39%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,765
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 1.04
• Shares Outstanding: 317,407,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,132,005
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,888,020
• PEG Ratio: -0.53
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.71
• P/FCF Ratio: 165.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.34
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.53
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.35
• 1Y Price Target: $34.00
• Price Target Upside: 43.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.8
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $12.49B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $29.00 ▲(22.11% Upside)

Mosaic Co's overall stock score reflects a solid financial foundation and attractive valuation, offset by bearish technical indicators and cash flow challenges. The earnings call provided positive guidance, but operational and market challenges remain.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained revenue growth reflects the company's ability to capture market demand and improve sales, supporting long-term business expansion.

Cost Savings Initiatives

Effective cost management enhances profitability and operational efficiency, providing a competitive edge and supporting future investments.

Strong Potash Demand

Robust demand for potash supports stable revenue streams and operational efficiency, reinforcing Mosaic's market position in a key segment.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Significant cash flow issues can constrain liquidity and limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities, impacting long-term financial health.

Phosphate Market Constraints

Challenges in the phosphate market could hinder sales growth and profitability, affecting the company's ability to maintain its competitive position.

Credit Issues in Brazil

Credit issues in a key market like Brazil can lead to reduced sales and revenue volatility, impacting overall financial performance and market reach.

Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name. The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Mosaic Co generates revenue primarily through the sale of its fertilizers, which include phosphate and potash products. The company operates a vertically integrated business model, which enables it to control various stages of production, from mining raw materials to manufacturing finished products. Key revenue streams include direct sales to farmers, agricultural retailers, and distributors. Additionally, Mosaic benefits from its strategic partnerships with agricultural cooperatives and retailers that enhance its distribution capabilities. Market dynamics, such as global agricultural demand, commodity prices, and crop planting trends, significantly influence its earnings, alongside the company's operational efficiency and cost management strategies.

Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mosaic Co demonstrates solid financial performance with strong revenue growth and profitability metrics. The balance sheet is healthy, with low leverage and a strong equity base. However, significant cash flow challenges, particularly in free cash flow, could impact liquidity and require attention.

Income Statement

Mosaic Co's income statement shows a solid performance with a TTM revenue growth rate of 5.7%, indicating a positive trajectory after previous declines. The gross profit margin of 15.6% and net profit margin of 10.3% reflect stable profitability, although these are lower than historical highs. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, suggesting efficient operations. However, the company experienced significant revenue fluctuations in prior years, which could pose a risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09 in the TTM, indicating conservative leverage. The return on equity is 7.9%, which is moderate but shows room for improvement. The equity ratio is robust, reflecting a solid capital structure. The company has improved its financial stability over time, reducing leverage significantly.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -4837.2% in the TTM, indicating cash flow issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.25, suggesting limited cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential liquidity concerns. Despite these issues, the company has maintained positive operating cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.89B	11.12B	13.70B	19.13B	12.36B	8.68B
Gross Profit	1.86B	1.51B	2.21B	5.76B	3.20B	1.06B
EBITDA	2.97B	1.57B	2.48B	5.75B	3.23B	1.24B
Net Income	1.23B	174.90M	1.16B	3.58B	1.63B	666.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.67B	22.92B	23.03B	23.39B	22.04B	19.79B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	153.30M	272.80M	348.80M	735.40M	769.50M	574.00M
Total Debt	4.80B	4.45B	3.99B	3.81B	4.41B	4.75B
Total Liabilities	11.73B	11.31B	10.60B	11.19B	11.29B	10.03B
Stockholders Equity	12.78B	11.48B	12.29B	12.05B	10.60B	9.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-203.70M	47.40M	1.00B	2.69B	898.40M	412.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.10B	1.30B	2.41B	3.94B	2.19B	1.58B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.30B	-1.26B	-1.32B	-1.26B	-1.32B	-1.19B
Financing Cash Flow	27.30M	-131.90M	-1.48B	-2.68B	-682.10M	-283.80M

Mosaic Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 23.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.22, below the 50-day MA of 27.42, and below the 200-day MA of 30.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOS.

Mosaic Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	72 Outperform	$12.05B	9.31	27.46%	2.61%	12.59%	31.40%
MOS	65 Neutral	$7.50B	6.13	10.00%	3.71%	3.82%	239.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ICL	60 Neutral	$7.36B	20.04	6.15%	3.50%	1.77%	-8.72%
IPI	53 Neutral	$339.57M	―	-33.37%	―	8.88%	-349.99%
SMG	50 Neutral	$3.04B	21.18	―	5.02%	-3.93%	―
FMC	48 Neutral	$1.64B	―	-11.52%	17.03%	-13.42%	-136.59%

Mosaic Co Corporate Events

Mosaic Co Completes $900 Million Senior Notes Sale

On November 13, 2025, The Mosaic Company completed a significant financial transaction by closing the sale of $900 million in senior notes, with maturities in 2029 and 2030. The company plans to use the net proceeds of approximately $893.5 million for general corporate purposes, potentially including debt repayment, which could impact its financial flexibility and market positioning.