Mosaic Co (MOS)
NYSE:MOS
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Mosaic Co
(NYSE:MOS)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(6.18% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/09/26
MOS scores as moderately attractive primarily due to a strengthened balance sheet and reasonable valuation/dividend support. Offsetting this are weaker cash generation (negative 2025 free cash flow) and a mixed near-term outlook with meaningful cost/commodity headwinds, while technical signals remain neutral-to-soft.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
A dramatic debt reduction and very low leverage materially strengthen Mosaic's financial flexibility. This durable capital structure supports funding of 2026 capex, portfolio actions, and resilience through fertilizer cycles, reducing refinancing and liquidity risk over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation
Negative free cash flow despite positive net income signals impaired cash conversion and heavier investment or working-capital strain. Over months this limits financial optionality for buybacks/dividends and delays balance-sheet repair unless operating cash conversion meaningfully improves.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
A dramatic debt reduction and very low leverage materially strengthen Mosaic's financial flexibility. This durable capital structure supports funding of 2026 capex, portfolio actions, and resilience through fertilizer cycles, reducing refinancing and liquidity risk over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Mosaic Co (MOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.37B
Dividend Yield3.7%
Average Volume (3M)11.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.1
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth3.82%
EPS Growth239.39%
CountryUS
Employees13,765
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding317,505,250
10 Day Avg. Volume9,038,412
30 Day Avg. Volume11,334,684
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)0.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.63
P/FCF Ratio-14.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.61
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.15
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.73Price Target Upside12.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)1.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.95B
Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It...
How the Company Makes Money
Mosaic makes money primarily by selling fertilizer and related crop nutrient products, with revenues largely tied to volumes sold and market prices for key commodities. Its main revenue streams come from (1) Phosphates: mining phosphate rock and m...
Mosaic Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Provides a breakdown of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, highlighting profitability and operational efficiency across different areas of the company.
Provides a breakdown of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, highlighting profitability and operational efficiency across different areas of the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMosaic Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mixed but constructive outlook: significant operational and cost progress (production improvement, $150M cost savings achieved, Mosaic Biosciences growth, record and near-record production in key mines, portfolio monetizations) provide a strong platform for recovery. However, near-term headwinds are material — a large working capital drag ($960M), higher net debt, a pronounced sulfur-driven margin hit (~$250M EBITDA headwind to Q1), idled low-margin Brazil operations, and weaker U.S. phosphate demand in Q4. Management expects these issues to resolve progressively in 2026 (working capital release of $300M–$500M and production ramp), but the near-term cash/commodity cost pressures balance against the operational gains, producing a cautiously neutral stance.Positive Updates
Phosphate Production Recovery and 2026 Guidance
Produced 1.7 million tonnes of phosphate in Q4 2025 (despite an extended Bartow turnaround); company expects at least 7.0 million tonnes of phosphate production in 2026 with upside as operating factors normalize.
Negative Updates
Sharp Fourth-Quarter Demand Weakness in U.S. Phosphate
U.S. phosphate demand fell sharply in Q4 2025 due to farmer affordability issues and government payment uncertainty; North America phosphate shipments declined to ~8.5 million tonnes in 2025 from ~10 million tonnes previously (~15% year-over-year decline).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Phosphate Production Recovery and 2026 Guidance
Produced 1.7 million tonnes of phosphate in Q4 2025 (despite an extended Bartow turnaround); company expects at least 7.0 million tonnes of phosphate production in 2026 with upside as operating factors normalize.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mosaic guided to at least 7.0 million tonnes of phosphate production in 2026 (Q4’25 phosphate was 1.7 Mt) and roughly 9.0 million tonnes of potash (similar to 2025) while running potash at high operating rates and targeting record Esterhazy output; conversion costs improved to $112/tonne in Q4 for phosphate (goal sub-$100/tonne), potash cash cost averaged $75/tonne in 2025, and Mosaic Fertilizantes blended rock cost was $97/tonne. They expect CapEx around $1.5 billion in 2026 (stepping down toward ~$1.0 billion by 2030), ARO/environmental cash spending to decline by about $50 million in 2026 and to ~$200 million by 2030, and divestitures (including Carlsbad) to generate ~ $170 million of proceeds and reduce ARO by ~$60 million. Financially, Mosaic said working capital release of $300–$500 million is “highly possible” in 2026 (240k tonnes of excess phosphate ≈ $140 million near-term), Q1’26 faces an ~ $250 million EBITDA headwind from higher sulfur (each $10/tonne sulfur ≈ $10 million/quarter), 2025 WC drag was $960 million, net debt rose ~$829 million, EBITDA→CFO conversion fell to the mid-30s% in 2025 (versus a ~70% normalized target), and Mosaic Biosciences (net sales $68 million in 2025) expects another year of doubling with 8–10 new launches, 60+ registrations, sales in 16 countries and gross margins in the 40s.Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.05B | 11.12B | 13.70B | 19.13B | 12.36B |
| Gross Profit | 1.82B | 1.51B | 2.21B | 5.76B | 3.20B |
| EBITDA | 2.61B | 1.57B | 2.48B | 5.75B | 3.23B |
| Net Income | 540.70M | 174.90M | 1.16B | 3.58B | 1.63B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 24.48B | 22.92B | 23.03B | 23.39B | 22.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 276.60M | 272.80M | 348.80M | 735.40M | 769.50M |
| Total Debt | 5.28B | 4.45B | 3.99B | 3.81B | 4.41B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.25B | 11.31B | 10.60B | 11.19B | 11.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.08B | 11.48B | 12.29B | 12.05B | 10.60B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -534.60M | 47.40M | 1.00B | 2.69B | 898.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 824.80M | 1.30B | 2.41B | 3.94B | 2.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.31B | -1.26B | -1.32B | -1.26B | -1.32B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 452.00M | -131.90M | -1.48B | -2.68B | -682.10M |
Mosaic Co Technical Analysis
Neutral
26.37
Price Trends
27.47
Negative
26.12
Positive
29.33
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.40
Negative
49.30
Neutral
78.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.60, below the 50-day MA of 27.47, and below the 200-day MA of 29.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MOS.
Mosaic Co Risk Analysis
Mosaic Co disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mosaic Co reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mosaic Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $20.55B | 8.62 | 29.95% | 2.56% | 12.59% | 31.40% | |
70 Outperform | $554.38M | 32.26 | 2.30% | ― | 8.88% | -349.99% | |
62 Neutral | $3.57B | -6.71 | -27.23% | 4.52% | -3.93% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $8.37B | 14.14 | 9.96% | 3.70% | 3.82% | 239.39% | |
59 Neutral | $6.89B | -25.24 | 3.77% | 3.36% | 1.77% | -8.72% | |
49 Neutral | $2.21B | -0.78 | -61.24% | 16.68% | -13.42% | -136.59% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MOS
Mosaic Co
26.37
2.43
10.14%
CF
Cf Industries Holdings
133.78
64.88
94.17%
FMC
FMC
17.64
-18.11
-50.66%
IPI
Intrepid Potash
41.35
14.81
55.80%
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
61.46
11.13
22.10%
ICL
Icl
5.34
-0.61
-10.28%
Mosaic Co Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Mosaic to Idle Brazilian Phosphate Operations, Pursue Sale
Negative
Apr 8, 2026
Mosaic, a leading global supplier of potash and phosphate fertilizers based in Tampa, Florida, also invests in biological crop solutions through its Mosaic Biosciences platform, and serves farmers in more than 40 countries with about 13,000 employ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.