Mosaic Co (MOS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.57B
• Dividend Yield: 2.58%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.12M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: -7.71%
• EPS Growth: 297.49%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,765
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 67
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 317,378,330
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,419,772
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,115,093
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.46
• 1Y Price Target: $40.92
• Price Target Upside: 22.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(7.49% Upside)

Mosaic Co's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with positive earnings call insights. The company's strategic advancements and improved market conditions are significant strengths. However, challenges in cash flow management and mixed technical indicators slightly temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Commodity demand and production

Mosaic Co. increased its full year potash production target due to strong global demand, which should provide solid margins given the tight market.

Management and operational improvement

Management is confident about overcoming operational issues and improving in the latter half of the year.

Market conditions and pricing

The expectation is for higher prices, especially for phosphate, leading to raised projections.

Negative Factors

Earnings and financial estimates

EBITDA estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised downwards compared to consensus expectations.

Operational costs and performance

Operational costs have significantly impacted results, falling short of expectations.

Phosphate production challenges

Persistent criticisms about the management of phosphate production lead to investor skepticism.

Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name. The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Mosaic Co generates revenue primarily through the sale of its phosphate and potash fertilizers to farmers and agricultural retailers. The company benefits from a diverse customer base that includes both domestic and international markets, with significant sales occurring in North America, South America, and Asia. Revenue streams include the sale of bulk and packaged fertilizers, with pricing influenced by global commodity markets, agricultural demand, and production costs. Additionally, Mosaic has strategic partnerships and contracts with agricultural cooperatives and distribution networks that enhance its market reach and stability. The company also invests in research and development to improve product efficacy and sustainability, which can lead to increased sales and customer loyalty.

Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mosaic Co shows a stable financial position with a modest revenue growth and improved gross profit margin. However, net profit margin remains low, and cash flow management presents significant challenges, particularly in free cash flow generation.

Income Statement

Mosaic Co's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a modest revenue growth rate of 1.71% compared to the previous period, signaling a recovery from the previous year's decline. Gross profit margin has improved slightly to 14.47%, but net profit margin remains low at 3.32%, reflecting pressure on profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown improvement, indicating better operational efficiency. However, the company needs to focus on enhancing net profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Mosaic Co reflects a stable financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is at a manageable level of 0.41, indicating prudent leverage. Return on equity has improved to 3.15%, but it remains relatively low, suggesting room for better utilization of equity. The equity ratio is strong, highlighting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet suggests financial stability with potential for improved returns.

Cash Flow

Mosaic Co's cash flow statement reveals challenges in cash generation. The free cash flow growth rate has significantly declined by 97.98% in the TTM period, raising concerns about cash availability for investments and debt servicing. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.35, indicating adequate cash generation from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.15, highlighting the need for improved cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.25B	11.12B	13.70B	19.13B	12.36B	8.68B
Gross Profit	1.73B	1.51B	2.21B	5.76B	3.20B	1.06B
EBITDA	2.50B	1.57B	2.48B	5.75B	3.23B	1.24B
Net Income	940.00M	174.90M	1.16B	3.58B	1.63B	666.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.30B	22.92B	23.03B	23.39B	22.04B	19.79B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	286.20M	272.80M	348.80M	735.40M	769.50M	574.00M
Total Debt	4.63B	4.45B	3.99B	3.81B	4.41B	4.75B
Total Liabilities	11.72B	11.31B	10.60B	11.19B	11.29B	10.03B
Stockholders Equity	12.44B	11.48B	12.29B	12.05B	10.60B	9.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.30M	47.40M	1.00B	2.69B	898.40M	412.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.18B	1.30B	2.41B	3.94B	2.19B	1.58B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.18B	-1.26B	-1.32B	-1.26B	-1.32B	-1.19B
Financing Cash Flow	-114.40M	-131.90M	-1.48B	-2.68B	-682.10M	-283.80M

Mosaic Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 33.49
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.98, below the 50-day MA of 35.02, and above the 200-day MA of 29.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MOS.

Mosaic Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	71 Outperform	$14.03B	11.26	24.98%	2.31%	9.53%	36.15%
MOS	66 Neutral	$10.57B	11.23	7.80%	2.58%	-7.71%	297.49%
ICL	63 Neutral	$8.25B	22.15	6.24%	2.86%	-1.22%	-14.31%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.31B	6.16	0.76%	2.94%	3.30%	-36.34%
FMC	58 Neutral	$4.94B	50.95	2.88%	5.87%	1.16%	-92.85%
SMG	54 Neutral	$3.59B	80.86	4.98%	4.25%	-2.05%	―
IPI	51 Neutral	$399.22M	―	-34.48%	―	11.93%	-311.34%

Mosaic Co Corporate Events

Mosaic Co Elects Directors and Ratifies Auditor

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Mosaic Company elected twelve directors for a one-year term, ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and approved the executive compensation plan. These decisions reflect Mosaic’s ongoing governance and financial oversight, potentially impacting its operational strategies and stakeholder confidence.