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Mosaic Co (MOS)
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Mosaic Co (MOS) AI Stock Analysis

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MOS

Mosaic Co

(NYSE:MOS)

Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$38.00
▲(6.50% Upside)
Mosaic Co's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with positive earnings call sentiment and beneficial corporate events. However, challenges in cash flow management, high valuation, and neutral technical indicators limit the score. The company's strategic initiatives and market fundamentals provide a positive outlook, but operational and geopolitical risks remain.
Positive Factors
Market Conditions
Amid improving potash markets and strong phosphate markets, Mosaic Co is expected to see materially better utilization going forward.
Operational Improvements
Mosaic Co. increased its full year potash production target due to strong global demand, which should provide solid margins given the tight market.
Price Improvements
Higher phosphate and contract potash prices are expected to improve Q3 and Q4 estimates.
Negative Factors
Operational Delays
The Q2 negative pre-announcement indicates a delay in phosphate turnaround activity.
Production Challenges
Delays in ramping up gypsum handling and repairs at the Louisiana plant have slowed phosphate production.
Revised Estimates
EBITDA estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised downwards compared to consensus expectations.

Mosaic Co (MOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name. The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyMosaic Co. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its phosphate and potash products. The company mines, processes, and distributes these nutrients to agricultural producers worldwide. Its revenue model is driven by a combination of direct sales to farmers and sales through a network of distributors and retailers. Key revenue streams include the sale of finished phosphate products such as diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP), as well as potash products. The company's earnings are also influenced by global agricultural demand, commodity prices, and strategic partnerships with distributors and agricultural companies. Additionally, Mosaic may engage in joint ventures and strategic collaborations to expand its market reach and enhance its production capabilities.

Mosaic Co Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance and growth in key segments like Mosaic Fertilizantes and Mosaic Biosciences, supported by robust global demand for fertilizers. However, operational challenges, weather impacts, and geopolitical uncertainties pose significant concerns, especially in the U.S. market. The sentiment leans positive with notable achievements outweighing the challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Net income was $238 million and adjusted EBITDA came in at $544 million, driven by strong phosphate prices and improving potash prices.
Market Outlook and Demand
Fertilizer demand remains strong globally, with phosphate prices and stripping margins elevated. Potash prices are rising due to supply constraints.
Mosaic Fertilizantes Performance
Mosaic Fertilizantes delivered a strong operating performance with improved conversion and production unit costs. Expected further improvements in profitability for the second quarter.
Mosaic Biosciences Growth
Revenue more than doubled over the prior year and is on track to double for the full-year. Launched Neptunion in China, expanding market reach.
Capital Allocation and Asset Divestitures
Continued progress on shedding non-core assets. Strategic alternatives for the potash mine in Carlsbad and Taquari in Brazil are proceeding well.
Increased Potash Production
Increased potash production outlook and completion of the 400,000 ton per year hydrofloat project expected to boost production volumes.
Negative Updates
Operational Challenges and Downtime
Significant downtime at Bartow and New Wales plants for planned turnaround and reliability improvements, impacting production.
Weather Impact on Potash Production
Cold weather in Saskatchewan affected potash production at Belle Plaine, leading to higher production costs due to curtailment.
Trade Policy Uncertainties
Global trade conflicts and geopolitical forces continue to create uncertainties, particularly affecting the U.S. agriculture sector.
Fertilizer Affordability Concerns
Potential demand headwinds in the second half of the year due to more challenging fertilizer affordability, particularly in the U.S.
Company Guidance
During The Mosaic Company's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance reflecting a positive outlook for the year, driven by strong market fundamentals in fertilizer demand and pricing. Key metrics highlighted included a net income of $238 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $544 million for the quarter, with phosphate and potash realized prices at $623 and $223 per ton, respectively, both exceeding guidance ranges. The company expects continued strong performance, citing market access as a strategic advantage, particularly in Brazil, where operations are thriving. Production targets for phosphate were set between 7.2 to 7.6 million tons annually, with efforts underway to improve production costs and asset reliability. Potash production is also set to increase, with the completion of a 400,000-ton hydrofloat project expected to lower per-ton costs. Additionally, Mosaic is focused on reallocating capital from non-core assets to enhance shareholder returns, with a CapEx target of $1.2 to $1.3 billion and anticipated improvements in free cash flow conversion throughout the year.

Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mosaic Co's financial performance is stable but shows room for improvement. The income statement indicates modest revenue growth and improved operational efficiency, but net profitability is low. The balance sheet is strong with manageable leverage, while the cash flow statement highlights significant challenges in free cash flow generation.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Mosaic Co's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a modest revenue growth rate of 1.71% compared to the previous period, signaling a recovery from the previous year's decline. Gross profit margin has improved slightly to 14.47%, but net profit margin remains low at 3.32%, reflecting pressure on profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown improvement, indicating better operational efficiency. However, the company needs to focus on enhancing net profitability.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet of Mosaic Co reflects a stable financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is at a manageable level of 0.41, indicating prudent leverage. Return on equity has improved to 3.15%, but it remains relatively low, suggesting room for better utilization of equity. The equity ratio is strong, highlighting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet suggests financial stability with potential for improved returns.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Mosaic Co's cash flow statement reveals challenges in cash generation. The free cash flow growth rate has significantly declined by 97.98% in the TTM period, raising concerns about cash availability for investments and debt servicing. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.35, indicating adequate cash generation from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.15, highlighting the need for improved cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue11.25B11.12B13.70B19.13B12.36B8.68B
Gross Profit1.73B1.51B2.21B5.76B3.20B1.06B
EBITDA2.52B1.57B2.57B4.79B3.30B412.90M
Net Income940.00M174.90M1.16B3.58B1.63B666.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets24.30B22.92B23.03B23.39B22.04B19.79B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments286.20M272.80M348.80M735.40M769.50M574.00M
Total Debt1.04B4.45B3.99B3.62B4.28B4.58B
Total Liabilities11.72B11.31B10.60B11.19B11.29B10.03B
Stockholders Equity12.44B11.48B12.29B12.05B10.60B9.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.30M47.40M1.00B2.69B898.40M412.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.18B1.30B2.41B3.94B2.19B1.58B
Investing Cash Flow-1.18B-1.26B-1.32B-1.26B-1.32B-1.19B
Financing Cash Flow-114.40M-131.90M-1.48B-2.68B-682.10M-283.80M

Mosaic Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price35.68
Price Trends
50DMA
36.05
Negative
100DMA
32.39
Positive
200DMA
29.06
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Positive
RSI
46.96
Neutral
STOCH
28.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 35.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.19, below the 50-day MA of 36.05, and above the 200-day MA of 29.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MOS.

Mosaic Co Risk Analysis

Mosaic Co disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mosaic Co reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Mosaic Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$15.02B12.2326.14%2.18%0.66%25.75%
64
Neutral
$7.78B19.976.70%2.99%-3.48%-18.34%
62
Neutral
$11.32B12.107.80%2.43%-13.37%-50.63%
58
Neutral
HK$16.52B4.18-4.93%4.58%-5.74%-81.55%
56
Neutral
$4.73B47.872.88%6.13%1.16%-92.85%
54
Neutral
$444.51M-35.32%0.63%-369.50%
51
Neutral
$3.54B80.414.98%4.27%-2.05%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MOS
Mosaic Co
35.68
9.67
37.18%
CF
Cf Industries Holdings
92.72
15.08
19.42%
FMC
FMC
37.84
-20.70
-35.36%
IPI
Intrepid Potash
33.38
11.62
53.40%
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
61.37
-6.69
-9.83%
ICL
Icl
6.03
2.20
57.44%

Mosaic Co Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mosaic Co Elects Directors and Ratifies Auditor
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Mosaic Company elected twelve directors for a one-year term, ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and approved the executive compensation plan. These decisions reflect Mosaic’s ongoing governance and financial oversight, potentially impacting its operational strategies and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (MOS) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mosaic Co stock, see the MOS Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mosaic Co Amends Credit Agreement with Bank of America
Positive
May 21, 2025

On May 16, 2025, Mosaic Co entered into an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Bank of America, N.A., which replaced its existing credit agreement. This new agreement includes an unsecured revolving credit facility of up to $2.5 billion and extends the maturity date to May 16, 2030. The updated agreement reduces rates on unused commitment fees and offers Mosaic more flexibility under other restrictive covenants, potentially enhancing its financial operations and strategic positioning in the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (MOS) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mosaic Co stock, see the MOS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Mosaic Co CEO Sells Shares Amid Personal Changes
Neutral
May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Bruce M. Bodine, President and CEO of The Mosaic Company, sold 180,708 shares of the company’s common stock due to asset division following his marriage dissolution. Despite this sale, Bodine retains a substantial position in unvested equity awards, indicating continued involvement with the company.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2025