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Mosaic Co (MOS)
NYSE:MOS

Mosaic Co (MOS) AI Stock Analysis

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Mosaic Co

(NYSE:MOS)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
▲(5.92%Upside)
Mosaic Co's overall stock score is driven primarily by its positive earnings call, which reflects strong financial performance and strategic growth opportunities. However, the stock's high valuation and mixed financial performance present challenges. The technical analysis indicates bullish momentum but warns of potential overbought conditions. The recent credit agreement amendment supports the company's strategic flexibility.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Analyst reiterates an Outperform rating for Mosaic Co stock due to improved numbers across all segments.
Market Strategy
Leveraging market access in North America, Brazil, China, and India is expected to deliver $300 million EBITDA uplift by 2030.
Operational Improvements
Operating efficiency initiatives in Fertilizantes are expected to result in $100-$120 million of cost savings.
Negative Factors
Earnings Growth
A lack of earnings growth and limited prospects for sustained higher fertilizer prices could weigh on sentiment.
EBITDA Estimates
1Q25 EBITDA is revised from $521M to $493M, which is below the consensus of $514M.
Phosphate Volumes
1Q25 Phosphate volumes are revised downward from 1.6Mt to 1.5Mt, which may indicate a short-term reduction in output.

Mosaic Co (MOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name. The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyMosaic Co. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its phosphate and potash products. The company mines, processes, and distributes these nutrients to agricultural producers worldwide. Its revenue model is driven by a combination of direct sales to farmers and sales through a network of distributors and retailers. Key revenue streams include the sale of finished phosphate products such as diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP), as well as potash products. The company's earnings are also influenced by global agricultural demand, commodity prices, and strategic partnerships with distributors and agricultural companies. Additionally, Mosaic may engage in joint ventures and strategic collaborations to expand its market reach and enhance its production capabilities.

Mosaic Co Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 20.92%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance and growth in key segments like Mosaic Fertilizantes and Mosaic Biosciences, supported by robust global demand for fertilizers. However, operational challenges, weather impacts, and geopolitical uncertainties pose significant concerns, especially in the U.S. market. The sentiment leans positive with notable achievements outweighing the challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Net income was $238 million and adjusted EBITDA came in at $544 million, driven by strong phosphate prices and improving potash prices.
Market Outlook and Demand
Fertilizer demand remains strong globally, with phosphate prices and stripping margins elevated. Potash prices are rising due to supply constraints.
Mosaic Fertilizantes Performance
Mosaic Fertilizantes delivered a strong operating performance with improved conversion and production unit costs. Expected further improvements in profitability for the second quarter.
Mosaic Biosciences Growth
Revenue more than doubled over the prior year and is on track to double for the full-year. Launched Neptunion in China, expanding market reach.
Capital Allocation and Asset Divestitures
Continued progress on shedding non-core assets. Strategic alternatives for the potash mine in Carlsbad and Taquari in Brazil are proceeding well.
Increased Potash Production
Increased potash production outlook and completion of the 400,000 ton per year hydrofloat project expected to boost production volumes.
Negative Updates
Operational Challenges and Downtime
Significant downtime at Bartow and New Wales plants for planned turnaround and reliability improvements, impacting production.
Weather Impact on Potash Production
Cold weather in Saskatchewan affected potash production at Belle Plaine, leading to higher production costs due to curtailment.
Trade Policy Uncertainties
Global trade conflicts and geopolitical forces continue to create uncertainties, particularly affecting the U.S. agriculture sector.
Fertilizer Affordability Concerns
Potential demand headwinds in the second half of the year due to more challenging fertilizer affordability, particularly in the U.S.
Company Guidance
During The Mosaic Company's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance reflecting a positive outlook for the year, driven by strong market fundamentals in fertilizer demand and pricing. Key metrics highlighted included a net income of $238 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $544 million for the quarter, with phosphate and potash realized prices at $623 and $223 per ton, respectively, both exceeding guidance ranges. The company expects continued strong performance, citing market access as a strategic advantage, particularly in Brazil, where operations are thriving. Production targets for phosphate were set between 7.2 to 7.6 million tons annually, with efforts underway to improve production costs and asset reliability. Potash production is also set to increase, with the completion of a 400,000-ton hydrofloat project expected to lower per-ton costs. Additionally, Mosaic is focused on reallocating capital from non-core assets to enhance shareholder returns, with a CapEx target of $1.2 to $1.3 billion and anticipated improvements in free cash flow conversion throughout the year.

Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mosaic Co presents a mixed financial health picture. The income statement indicates moderate profitability and challenges in converting revenue to profit. The balance sheet shows financial stability with prudent leverage, while cash flow performance is weak, with declining free cash flow despite strong operating cash flow.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The company's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM Gross Profit Margin stands at 14.5%, indicating moderate profitability. However, the Net Profit Margin is relatively low at 3.3%, highlighting challenges in converting revenue to profit. Revenue has decreased compared to the previous periods, specifically a decline from 2023 to 2024 and a significant drop from 2022 to 2023. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are at 7.1% and 19.5%, respectively, demonstrating solid operational efficiency but also showing a downward trend from prior years.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.41, suggesting prudent leverage. The Return on Equity (ROE) is at 3.1%, which is low compared to previous years, indicating a decrease in shareholder value generation. The Equity Ratio of 50.8% showcases a strong equity base relative to total assets, suggesting financial stability and reduced risk from creditors.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow statement exhibits a decline in free cash flow growth, with the TTM Free Cash Flow down from previous periods. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is robust at 3.87, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is lower at 0.58, reflecting a decrease in free cash flow generation. This suggests challenges in maintaining liquidity and capital expenditures.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
11.06B11.12B13.70B19.13B12.36B8.68B
Gross Profit
1.60B1.51B2.21B5.76B3.20B1.06B
EBIT
787.10M621.50M1.34B3.75B1.82B-421.80M
EBITDA
1.88B1.57B2.57B4.79B3.30B412.90M
Net Income Common Stockholders
367.80M174.90M1.16B3.58B1.63B666.10M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
339.10M272.80M348.80M735.40M769.50M574.00M
Total Assets
22.87B22.92B23.03B23.39B22.04B19.79B
Total Debt
4.78B4.45B3.99B3.62B4.28B4.58B
Net Debt
4.45B4.18B3.65B2.89B3.51B4.00B
Total Liabilities
10.71B11.31B10.60B11.19B11.29B10.03B
Stockholders Equity
12.02B11.48B12.29B12.05B10.60B9.58B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
212.50M47.40M1.00B2.69B898.40M412.00M
Operating Cash Flow
1.42B1.30B2.41B3.94B2.19B1.58B
Investing Cash Flow
-1.21B-1.26B-1.32B-1.26B-1.32B-1.19B
Financing Cash Flow
-317.80M-131.90M-1.48B-2.68B-682.10M-283.80M

Mosaic Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price36.82
Price Trends
50DMA
30.37
Positive
100DMA
28.35
Positive
200DMA
27.10
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.83
Positive
RSI
79.59
Negative
STOCH
83.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.92, above the 50-day MA of 30.37, and above the 200-day MA of 27.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 79.59 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MOS.

Mosaic Co Risk Analysis

Mosaic Co disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mosaic Co reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
U.S. tariffs on Canadian potash and retaliatory tariffs could materially adversely affect our business operations and financial condition. Q4, 2024

Mosaic Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
CFCF
80
Outperform
$14.96B12.1826.14%2.17%0.66%25.75%
ICICL
73
Outperform
$8.53B21.926.70%2.83%-3.48%-18.34%
MOMOS
69
Neutral
$11.67B31.753.09%2.30%-13.37%-50.63%
FMFMC
68
Neutral
$5.02B15.438.81%5.77%1.45%-70.85%
IPIPI
60
Neutral
$505.37M-35.32%0.63%-369.50%
SMSMG
59
Neutral
$3.33B115.064.98%4.58%0.75%
51
Neutral
$2.01B-1.11-21.16%3.67%2.69%-30.65%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MOS
Mosaic Co
36.82
8.47
29.88%
CF
Cf Industries Holdings
91.63
16.17
21.43%
FMC
FMC
42.24
-13.86
-24.71%
IPI
Intrepid Potash
37.97
12.50
49.08%
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
58.62
-6.29
-9.69%
ICL
Icl
6.98
2.53
56.85%

Mosaic Co Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mosaic Co Elects Directors and Ratifies Auditor
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Mosaic Company elected twelve directors for a one-year term, ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and approved the executive compensation plan. These decisions reflect Mosaic’s ongoing governance and financial oversight, potentially impacting its operational strategies and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (MOS) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mosaic Co stock, see the MOS Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mosaic Co Amends Credit Agreement with Bank of America
Positive
May 21, 2025

On May 16, 2025, Mosaic Co entered into an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Bank of America, N.A., which replaced its existing credit agreement. This new agreement includes an unsecured revolving credit facility of up to $2.5 billion and extends the maturity date to May 16, 2030. The updated agreement reduces rates on unused commitment fees and offers Mosaic more flexibility under other restrictive covenants, potentially enhancing its financial operations and strategic positioning in the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (MOS) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mosaic Co stock, see the MOS Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Mosaic Co CEO Sells Shares Amid Personal Changes
Neutral
May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Bruce M. Bodine, President and CEO of The Mosaic Company, sold 180,708 shares of the company’s common stock due to asset division following his marriage dissolution. Despite this sale, Bodine retains a substantial position in unvested equity awards, indicating continued involvement with the company.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.