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Mosaic Co (MOS)
NYSE:MOS
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Mosaic Co
(NYSE:MOS)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(5.30% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by improved balance-sheet strength but offset by weakened cash generation (negative 2025 free cash flow) and a mixed near-term outlook from the earnings call (sulfur cost headwinds and working-capital/inventory pressures). Low valuation and a ~3.1% dividend provide support, while technicals remain largely neutral.
Positive Factors
Improved leverage and balance-sheet flexibility
A dramatic debt reduction and very low debt-to-equity provide durable financial flexibility. This structural leverage improvement supports capital allocation optionality, resilience through fertilizer cycles, and capacity to fund capex, dividends or bolt-on M&A without straining liquidity.
Operational cost savings and production scale
Realized cost reductions and ongoing efficiency programs lower structural conversion costs and enhance long-term margins. Combined with guided higher phosphate and sustained potash volumes, these improvements reinforce competitive cost position across cycles and raise recovery potential as volumes normalize.
Diversification via Mosaic Biosciences growth
Rapidly scaling higher‑margin biologicals diversifies revenue beyond commodity fertilizers, offering a structural growth engine. Broad registrations, repeated launches and healthy gross margins provide a durable pathway to lift company-wide profitability and reduce cyclicality over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow and weak cash conversion
Negative FCF and a meaningful drop in cash conversion indicate structural stress in turning EBITDA into liquidity. Sustained negative FCF constrains shareholder returns, limits reinvestment choices, and raises reliance on financing if inventory or capex trends don't normalize over coming quarters.
Large working-capital and inventory cash drag
A concentrated working-capital build materially tied up cash and drove higher net debt. Persistent inventory concentration (Brazil, North America) prolongs cash cycle risk, pressures liquidity, and could force selective customer credit or disciplined selling that limits near-term volume recovery.
Input-cost exposure (sulfur) and idled low‑margin assets
Significant sensitivity to sulfur prices creates recurring margin volatility and forced idling of low‑margin Brazilian operations. Until input-cost exposure is hedged or passed to customers, profitability and utilization remain vulnerable, weighing on sustainable margins and cash generation.
Mosaic Co (MOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.04B
Dividend Yield3.7%
Average Volume (3M)6.18M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.5
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth3.82%
EPS Growth239.39%
CountryUS
Employees13,765
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding317,407,870
10 Day Avg. Volume4,823,932
30 Day Avg. Volume6,178,480
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.53
Price to Book (P/B)0.68
Price to Sales (P/S)0.71
P/FCF Ratio165.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.30Price Target Upside9.86% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)2.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.56B
Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionThe Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name. The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyMosaic Co generates revenue primarily through the sale of its fertilizers, which include phosphate and potash products. The company operates a vertically integrated business model, which enables it to control various stages of production, from mining raw materials to manufacturing finished products. Key revenue streams include direct sales to farmers, agricultural retailers, and distributors. Additionally, Mosaic benefits from its strategic partnerships with agricultural cooperatives and retailers that enhance its distribution capabilities. Market dynamics, such as global agricultural demand, commodity prices, and crop planting trends, significantly influence its earnings, alongside the company's operational efficiency and cost management strategies.
Mosaic Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Provides a breakdown of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, highlighting profitability and operational efficiency across different areas of the company.
Provides a breakdown of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, highlighting profitability and operational efficiency across different areas of the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMosaic Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mixed but constructive outlook: significant operational and cost progress (production improvement, $150M cost savings achieved, Mosaic Biosciences growth, record and near-record production in key mines, portfolio monetizations) provide a strong platform for recovery. However, near-term headwinds are material — a large working capital drag ($960M), higher net debt, a pronounced sulfur-driven margin hit (~$250M EBITDA headwind to Q1), idled low-margin Brazil operations, and weaker U.S. phosphate demand in Q4. Management expects these issues to resolve progressively in 2026 (working capital release of $300M–$500M and production ramp), but the near-term cash/commodity cost pressures balance against the operational gains, producing a cautiously neutral stance.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Phosphate Production Recovery and 2026 Guidance
Produced 1.7 million tonnes of phosphate in Q4 2025 (despite an extended Bartow turnaround); company expects at least 7.0 million tonnes of phosphate production in 2026 with upside as operating factors normalize.
Potash Production Strength
International potash sales set a record in 2025; Esterhazy returned to full operating rates and HydroFloat is ramping. Mosaic expects to produce around 9 million tonnes of potash in 2026 (similar to 2025) and anticipates record Esterhazy output.
Material Cost and Efficiency Improvements
Delivered $150 million of cost savings in 2025 ahead of schedule and targets an additional $100 million of savings in 2026 through technology-enabled initiatives, supply chain optimization and supplier consolidation.
Improved Phosphate Conversion Cost
Fourth quarter phosphate cash cost of conversion was $112 per tonne — roughly $20 per tonne improvement from an earlier high watermark in 2025; management expects further structural declines with scale (targeting below $100 conversion cost over time).
Potash Cash Cost Competitiveness
Reported 2025 potash cash cost of production averaged $75 per tonne and would have met Analyst Day target range if not for higher-cost Colonsay extension.
Brazil Operations and Rock Cost Progress
Brazil rock output reached near-record levels in 2025; Mosaic Fertilizantes blended rock cost per tonne fell to $97 (lowest since 2021). Completed a 1 million tonne blending facility in Palmeirante to expand distribution capacity.
Mosaic Biosciences Rapid Growth
Mosaic Biosciences doubled net sales to $68 million in 2025, reached 60+ registrations and sales in 16 countries; management expects another year of doubling net sales in 2026 with 8–10 new product launches, and gross margins in the 40s.
Portfolio Reallocation and Monetization Progress
Divested several noncore assets (Patos de Minas, Taquari) and a pending Carlsbad sale; transactions announced in 2025 expected to generate approximately $170 million in proceeds and reduce ARO by ~$60 million. Ma'aden equity position valued at about $2.1 billion.
Working Capital Release Potential
Management estimates a $300 million to $500 million working capital release in 2026 driven by inventory drawdown (including ~240,000 tonnes excess phosphate rock, ~ $140 million at current values) and demand recovery, which should materially improve cash flow.
Capital Expenditure Path and Near-Term Investment
2026 CapEx expected around $1.5 billion (higher than 2025 due to gyp stack and clay settling area projects); management views this as a near-term peak and expects CapEx to trend down toward ~$1.0 billion by 2030.
Negative Updates
Sharp Fourth-Quarter Demand Weakness in U.S. Phosphate
U.S. phosphate demand fell sharply in Q4 2025 due to farmer affordability issues and government payment uncertainty; North America phosphate shipments declined to ~8.5 million tonnes in 2025 from ~10 million tonnes previously (~15% year-over-year decline).
Inventory Build and Cash Flow Drag
Inventory builds in finished products and raw materials reduced cash flow by approximately $960 million in 2025 and contributed to a $829 million increase in net debt for the year; EBITDA-to-cash conversion fell to the mid-30s% in 2025 versus a normalized ~70%.
Sulfur Price Spike and Near-Term Margin Pressure
A sharp sulfur price increase since December 2025 is expected to significantly compress margins in Phosphate and Mosaic Fertilizantes into H1 2026; management estimates roughly a $250 million headwind to Q1 2026 EBITDA versus prior year and notes every $10/t change in sulfur adds ~$10 million quarterly expense.
Idled Low-Margin Brazilian Assets
Araxa and Fospar (Brazil) were idled until further notice to protect margins amid high sulfur costs; idling and production curtailments impaired near-term sales and contributed to narrower distribution margins in Brazil.
Working Capital and Inventory Concentration
Excess phosphate inventory (~240,000 tonnes) and higher-value purchased nutrients elevated working capital in 2025; some of the inventory drag is concentrated in Brazil and North America and created near-term liquidity pressure.
Balance Sheet and Financing Impacts
Raised $900 million in 3- and 5-year notes in Nov 2025 and used proceeds primarily to retire short-term commercial paper; net debt increased and management delayed plans for more aggressive capital returns until cash flow normalizes.
Phosphate Production Recovery Slower Than Expected
Management acknowledged that phosphate production recovery took longer than anticipated in 2025; prior internal targets (e.g., 2.0 million tonnes per quarter) were not met in late-2025 and guidance is being staged on demonstrated trailing results (1.7–1.8 million t/qtr shown in Q4).
Market and Credit Constraints in Brazil
Credit constraints and high interest rates in Brazil depressed demand and forced disciplined selling; management would be selective on customer credit, which may temper near-term volume growth despite long-term opportunity from expanding acreage and yields.
Company Guidance
Mosaic guided to at least 7.0 million tonnes of phosphate production in 2026 (Q4’25 phosphate was 1.7 Mt) and roughly 9.0 million tonnes of potash (similar to 2025) while running potash at high operating rates and targeting record Esterhazy output; conversion costs improved to $112/tonne in Q4 for phosphate (goal sub-$100/tonne), potash cash cost averaged $75/tonne in 2025, and Mosaic Fertilizantes blended rock cost was $97/tonne. They expect CapEx around $1.5 billion in 2026 (stepping down toward ~$1.0 billion by 2030), ARO/environmental cash spending to decline by about $50 million in 2026 and to ~$200 million by 2030, and divestitures (including Carlsbad) to generate ~ $170 million of proceeds and reduce ARO by ~$60 million. Financially, Mosaic said working capital release of $300–$500 million is “highly possible” in 2026 (240k tonnes of excess phosphate ≈ $140 million near-term), Q1’26 faces an ~ $250 million EBITDA headwind from higher sulfur (each $10/tonne sulfur ≈ $10 million/quarter), 2025 WC drag was $960 million, net debt rose ~$829 million, EBITDA→CFO conversion fell to the mid-30s% in 2025 (versus a ~70% normalized target), and Mosaic Biosciences (net sales $68 million in 2025) expects another year of doubling with 8–10 new launches, 60+ registrations, sales in 16 countries and gross margins in the 40s.Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Balance sheet strength is a clear positive after the sharp 2025 debt reduction, supporting flexibility. However, profitability remains well below the 2021–2022 cycle peak and 2025 free cash flow turned negative despite positive net income, signaling weaker cash conversion and higher investment needs.Income Statement
Revenue rebounded in 2025 (annual revenue up vs. 2024), but the multi-year picture is uneven with sharp declines in 2023–2024 after a peak in 2022, highlighting cyclical end-market exposure. Profitability has compressed materially from 2022 highs: net margin fell from ~18.7% (2022) to ~1.6% (2024) before improving to ~4.5% (2025). Gross margin also remains well below 2021–2022 levels, indicating weaker pricing/spreads versus the prior cycle.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage improved dramatically in 2025, with total debt dropping to ~$0.76B from ~$4.45B in 2024, pushing debt-to-equity down to ~0.06 (from ~0.39). Equity and assets remain sizable (~$12.1B equity; ~$24.5B assets), supporting financial flexibility. The main weakness is return on equity, which is still modest in 2025 (~4.5%) versus much stronger levels in 2021–2022, reflecting lower profitability rather than balance-sheet strain.82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remained positive in 2025 (~$0.82B) but was well below prior years (notably 2022–2023). Free cash flow turned negative in 2025 (about -$0.53B) after being modestly positive in 2024 and strong in 2021–2023, suggesting heavier investment or weaker cash conversion this year. Cash generation also looks less supportive relative to earnings in 2025 given negative free cash flow versus positive net income.48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 11.68B | 11.12B | 13.70B | 19.13B | 12.36B | 8.68B |
| Gross Profit | 1.93B | 1.51B | 2.21B | 5.76B | 3.20B | 1.06B |
| EBITDA | 2.92B | 1.57B | 2.48B | 5.75B | 3.23B | 1.24B |
| Net Income | 1.22B | 174.90M | 1.16B | 3.58B | 1.63B | 666.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.48B | 22.92B | 23.03B | 23.39B | 22.04B | 19.79B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 276.60M | 272.80M | 348.80M | 735.40M | 769.50M | 574.00M |
| Total Debt | 759.90M | 4.45B | 3.99B | 3.81B | 4.41B | 4.75B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.25B | 11.31B | 10.60B | 11.19B | 11.29B | 10.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.08B | 11.48B | 12.29B | 12.05B | 10.60B | 9.58B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -534.60M | 47.40M | 1.00B | 2.69B | 898.40M | 412.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 824.80M | 1.30B | 2.41B | 3.94B | 2.19B | 1.58B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.31B | -1.26B | -1.32B | -1.26B | -1.32B | -1.19B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 452.00M | -131.90M | -1.48B | -2.68B | -682.10M | -283.80M |
Mosaic Co Technical Analysis
Neutral
28.49
Price Trends
26.91
Positive
27.17
Positive
30.69
Negative
Market Momentum
0.62
Positive
50.17
Neutral
21.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 28.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.92, above the 50-day MA of 26.91, and below the 200-day MA of 30.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MOS.
Mosaic Co Risk Analysis
Mosaic Co disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mosaic Co reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mosaic Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $14.99B | 10.64 | 29.62% | 2.56% | 12.59% | 31.40% | |
64 Neutral | $9.04B | 7.45 | 10.00% | 3.70% | 3.82% | 239.39% | |
62 Neutral | $4.09B | 46.74 | ― | 4.52% | -3.93% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $6.70B | 30.15 | 3.86% | 3.36% | 1.77% | -8.72% | |
58 Neutral | $450.34M | -2.21 | -33.37% | ― | 8.88% | -349.99% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
49 Neutral | $1.73B | -0.78 | -66.80% | 16.68% | -13.42% | -136.59% |
* General Sector Average
MOS
Mosaic Co
28.49
4.04
16.53%
CF
Cf Industries Holdings
96.11
20.10
26.44%
FMC
FMC
13.88
-22.64
-62.00%
IPI
Intrepid Potash
33.54
7.84
30.51%
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
70.52
12.41
21.36%
ICL
Icl
5.19
-0.62
-10.67%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.