Mosaic Co (MOS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.25B
• Dividend Yield: 2.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 30.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: -13.37%
• EPS Growth: -50.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,765
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 0.49
• Shares Outstanding: 317,230,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,682,869
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,464,549
• PEG Ratio: 0.28
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 54.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.05
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.43
• 1Y Price Target: $37.79
• Price Target Upside: 7.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $39.00 ▲(10.86%Upside)

Mosaic Co's overall stock score is driven primarily by its positive earnings call, which reflects strong financial performance and strategic growth opportunities. However, the stock's high valuation and mixed financial performance present challenges. The technical analysis indicates bullish momentum but warns of potential overbought conditions. The recent credit agreement amendment supports the company's strategic flexibility.

Positive Factors

Guidance Improvement

The guidance for phosphate average selling price has been raised, indicating better-than-expected price realizations in the market.

Market Conditions

Amid improving potash markets and strong phosphate markets, the company is expected to have better phosphate utilization going forward.

Price Realizations

Phosphate price realizations are better than expected, partially offsetting the delayed phosphate activity.

Negative Factors

Earnings Expectations

The Q2 negative pre-announcement indicates a net hit to Q2 estimates, which affects the company's perceived performance.

Operational Delays

Delays in ramping up gypsum handling and repairs at the Louisiana plant have slowed phosphate production.

Revised Estimates

EBITDA estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised downwards compared to consensus expectations.

Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name. The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Mosaic Co. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its phosphate and potash products. The company mines, processes, and distributes these nutrients to agricultural producers worldwide. Its revenue model is driven by a combination of direct sales to farmers and sales through a network of distributors and retailers. Key revenue streams include the sale of finished phosphate products such as diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP), as well as potash products. The company's earnings are also influenced by global agricultural demand, commodity prices, and strategic partnerships with distributors and agricultural companies. Additionally, Mosaic may engage in joint ventures and strategic collaborations to expand its market reach and enhance its production capabilities.

Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mosaic Co presents a mixed financial health picture. The income statement indicates moderate profitability and challenges in converting revenue to profit. The balance sheet shows financial stability with prudent leverage, while cash flow performance is weak, with declining free cash flow despite strong operating cash flow.

Income Statement

The company's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM Gross Profit Margin stands at 14.5%, indicating moderate profitability. However, the Net Profit Margin is relatively low at 3.3%, highlighting challenges in converting revenue to profit. Revenue has decreased compared to the previous periods, specifically a decline from 2023 to 2024 and a significant drop from 2022 to 2023. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are at 7.1% and 19.5%, respectively, demonstrating solid operational efficiency but also showing a downward trend from prior years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.41, suggesting prudent leverage. The Return on Equity (ROE) is at 3.1%, which is low compared to previous years, indicating a decrease in shareholder value generation. The Equity Ratio of 50.8% showcases a strong equity base relative to total assets, suggesting financial stability and reduced risk from creditors.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement exhibits a decline in free cash flow growth, with the TTM Free Cash Flow down from previous periods. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is robust at 3.87, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is lower at 0.58, reflecting a decrease in free cash flow generation. This suggests challenges in maintaining liquidity and capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.06B	11.12B	13.70B	19.13B	12.36B	8.68B
Gross Profit	1.60B	1.51B	2.21B	5.76B	3.20B	1.06B
EBITDA	1.88B	1.57B	2.57B	4.79B	3.30B	412.90M
Net Income	367.80M	174.90M	1.16B	3.58B	1.63B	666.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	23.17B	22.92B	23.03B	23.39B	22.04B	19.79B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	259.20M	272.80M	348.80M	735.40M	769.50M	574.00M
Total Debt	4.82B	4.45B	3.99B	3.62B	4.28B	4.58B
Total Liabilities	11.25B	11.31B	10.60B	11.19B	11.29B	10.03B
Stockholders Equity	11.77B	11.48B	12.29B	12.05B	10.60B	9.58B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	212.50M	47.40M	1.00B	2.69B	898.40M	412.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.42B	1.30B	2.41B	3.94B	2.19B	1.58B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.21B	-1.26B	-1.32B	-1.26B	-1.32B	-1.19B
Financing Cash Flow	-317.80M	-131.90M	-1.48B	-2.68B	-682.10M	-283.80M

Mosaic Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 35.18
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 35.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.68, above the 50-day MA of 33.15, and above the 200-day MA of 27.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MOS.

Mosaic Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	75 Outperform	$14.81B	12.49	26.14%	2.19%	0.66%	25.75%
Sector *	70 Neutral	¥168.32B	10.86	6.37%	3.62%	3.94%	6.25%
ICL	70 Neutral	$8.69B	22.02	6.70%	2.59%	-3.48%	-18.34%
FMC	69 Neutral	$5.26B	16.36	8.81%	5.44%	1.45%	-70.85%
MOS	69 Neutral	$11.25B	30.67	3.09%	2.48%	-13.37%	-50.63%
IPI	60 Neutral	$466.09M	―	-35.32%	―	0.63%	-369.50%
SMG	57 Neutral	$3.71B	127.62	4.98%	4.11%	0.75%	―

Mosaic Co Corporate Events

Mosaic Co Elects Directors and Ratifies Auditor

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Mosaic Company elected twelve directors for a one-year term, ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and approved the executive compensation plan. These decisions reflect Mosaic’s ongoing governance and financial oversight, potentially impacting its operational strategies and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (MOS) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mosaic Co stock, see the MOS Stock Forecast page.

Mosaic Co Amends Credit Agreement with Bank of America

On May 16, 2025, Mosaic Co entered into an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Bank of America, N.A., which replaced its existing credit agreement. This new agreement includes an unsecured revolving credit facility of up to $2.5 billion and extends the maturity date to May 16, 2030. The updated agreement reduces rates on unused commitment fees and offers Mosaic more flexibility under other restrictive covenants, potentially enhancing its financial operations and strategic positioning in the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (MOS) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mosaic Co stock, see the MOS Stock Forecast page.

Mosaic Co CEO Sells Shares Amid Personal Changes

On May 8, 2025, Bruce M. Bodine, President and CEO of The Mosaic Company, sold 180,708 shares of the company’s common stock due to asset division following his marriage dissolution. Despite this sale, Bodine retains a substantial position in unvested equity awards, indicating continued involvement with the company.