CVR Partners (UAN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.09B
• Dividend Yield: 12.33%
• Average Volume (3M): 31.44K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: 16.52%
• EPS Growth: 141.96%
• Country: US
• Employees: 316
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 4.08
• Shares Outstanding: 10,569,637
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 38,736
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 31,437
• PEG Ratio: -0.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.53
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.62
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $111.00 ▲(16.52% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid profitability but constrained by leverage and weak cash-flow conversion. Valuation is a meaningful positive (low P/E and high yield), while technicals are mixed with softer near-term momentum. Recent updates and the earnings call are broadly constructive on demand/pricing, but operational disruption and cost/turnaround risks temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

High Profitability & Revenue Growth

Sustained gross and net margins alongside positive revenue growth indicate the core fertilizer business generates strong earnings power. Durable profitability supports distributions, reinvestment and debt servicing, giving resilience through agricultural cycles and pricing swings.

Strong Plant Utilization

High utilization reflects effective operations and fixed-cost absorption, boosting per-unit margins. Maintaining near-nameplate throughput supports long-term cash generation and makes planned debottlenecking/Growth CapEx more accretive to margins and returns.

Targeted CapEx for Margin & Reliability

Explicit allocation to debottlenecking, expansion and feedstock diversification addresses structural constraints and input risk. If executed, these projects should raise utilization, lower unit costs and reduce single-source feedstock exposure, improving long-term margin stability.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

High leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to earnings volatility. In a commodity-linked business, leverage magnifies downside from price or demand shocks and limits ability to absorb capex or turnaround costs without raising refinancing or liquidity risk.

Weak Cash Conversion

Low conversion of reported earnings into cash and negative free cash flow constrain the partnership's ability to fund distributions, deleverage, or self-fund growth. Persistent weak cash conversion raises reliance on external financing and amplifies liquidity risk during downturns.

Operational & Third‑Party Risks

Reliance on third‑party units and complex turnarounds creates execution risk that can defer production and raise costs. Recurring delays or incidents can depress quarterly results, increase maintenance costs, and undermine the benefits of capacity expansion and debottlenecking investments.

CVR Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CVR Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizer products in the United States. The company offers ammonia products for agricultural and industrial customers; and urea and ammonium nitrate products to agricultural customers, as well as retailers and distributors. CVR GP, LLC serves as the general partner of the company. CVR Partners, LP was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

CVR Partners generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizers, including ammonia and UAN solutions. The company benefits from a diverse customer base that includes agricultural cooperatives, wholesalers, and retailers, allowing them to sell their products across various market segments. Key revenue streams are derived from the direct sales of these fertilizers to farmers and agricultural businesses. Additionally, the company capitalizes on favorable pricing dynamics in the agricultural sector, which can fluctuate based on supply and demand, thereby impacting their earnings. Significant partnerships with agricultural distributors and cooperative marketing agreements also contribute to their financial performance, as they help expand market reach and improve sales volume. Overall, CVR Partners' revenue model is closely tied to the agricultural cycles and the demand for crop nutrients, making it sensitive to changes in farming trends and commodity prices.

CVR Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and revenue trends are solid (TTM gross margin 26.9%, net margin 20.7%, revenue growth 6.7%), but elevated leverage (debt-to-equity 1.79) and weak cash conversion (operating cash flow to net income 0.12; negative free-cash-flow to net income) raise durability risk.

Income Statement

CVR Partners has shown a strong recovery in its income statement metrics over the past years. The TTM data indicates a healthy gross profit margin of 26.9% and a net profit margin of 20.7%, reflecting efficient cost management and profitability. Revenue growth is positive at 6.7% TTM, indicating a rebound from previous declines. However, the gross profit margin has decreased from its peak in 2022, suggesting some pressure on cost control or pricing power.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.79 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose a risk if earnings decline. However, the return on equity is strong at 41.4% TTM, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is moderate, indicating a balanced approach to asset financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics reveal some concerns, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -1.5% TTM, indicating challenges in generating cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.12 TTM, suggesting potential issues in converting earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow constraints despite profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	614.53M	525.32M	681.48M	835.58M	532.58M	349.95M
Gross Profit	165.37M	118.86M	232.46M	352.37M	162.04M	24.84M
EBITDA	271.11M	178.90M	281.10M	403.16M	212.67M	41.35M
Net Income	127.22M	60.90M	172.43M	286.80M	78.16M	-98.18M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.04B	1.02B	975.33M	1.10B	1.13B	1.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	156.18M	90.86M	45.28M	86.34M	112.52M	30.56M
Total Debt	584.92M	585.02M	550.48M	557.71M	615.88M	639.49M
Total Liabilities	718.70M	725.65M	672.45M	688.59M	784.86M	718.64M
Stockholders Equity	318.50M	293.07M	302.88M	411.81M	342.20M	314.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	138.45M	113.47M	219.33M	256.80M	168.13M	1.14M
Operating Cash Flow	184.03M	150.54M	243.53M	301.46M	188.72M	19.74M
Investing Cash Flow	-38.95M	-31.89M	-2.72M	-44.62M	-20.34M	-18.55M
Financing Cash Flow	-99.43M	-73.07M	-281.86M	-283.02M	-86.43M	-7.63M

CVR Partners Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 95.26
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UAN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 95.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 110.03, below the 50-day MA of 101.73, and above the 200-day MA of 87.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UAN.

CVR Partners Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UAN	68 Neutral	$1.09B	8.60	42.00%	12.33%	16.52%	141.96%
MOS	65 Neutral	$8.73B	7.13	10.00%	3.70%	3.82%	239.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ICL	60 Neutral	$6.91B	18.71	6.15%	3.36%	1.77%	-8.72%
IPI	58 Neutral	$440.94M	-2.16	-33.37%	―	8.88%	-349.99%
SMG	52 Neutral	$3.73B	43.42	―	4.52%	-3.93%	―
FMC	47 Neutral	$1.97B	-3.68	-11.52%	16.68%	-13.42%	-136.59%

CVR Partners Corporate Events

CVR Partners Issues Preliminary 2025 Results Amid Turnaround

On January 26, 2026, CVR Partners reported preliminary estimates for its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, indicating a quarterly net loss of $7 million to $14 million but full-year net income between $95 million and $102 million, with EBITDA for 2025 estimated at $206 million to $216 million and ammonia utilization of 87% to 89%. The company completed a planned turnaround at its Coffeyville facility in early November 2025, but startup was delayed several weeks due to downtime at a third‑party air separation unit, and despite this operational disruption, management cited strong fourth-quarter demand and firm nitrogen fertilizer pricing, with year-end cash of $65 million to $75 million and long-term debt and finance lease obligations of $550 million to $600 million, underscoring solid annual profitability amid operational and geopolitical constraints.

The most recent analyst rating on (UAN) stock is a Buy with a $128.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Partners stock, see the UAN Stock Forecast page.

CVR Partners Appoints Michael Wright as New COO

On January 16, 2026, CVR Partners’ board appointed Michael H. Wright, Jr., a seasoned refining and capital projects executive currently serving as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at affiliate CVR Energy, as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the partnership, effective immediately. Wright’s appointment, backed by decades of leadership experience at CVR Energy, Solomon Associates and HollyFrontier, strengthens operational oversight at CVR Partners without any disclosed related-party transactions, selection arrangements or family ties, signaling a governance-focused move to align leadership across the affiliated energy and fertilizer businesses for potentially tighter operational coordination.

The most recent analyst rating on (UAN) stock is a Buy with a $129.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Partners stock, see the UAN Stock Forecast page.

CVR Partners Outlines 2026 Capital Spending and Growth Plans

On January 5, 2026, CVR Partners, LP announced preliminary 2026 capital spending estimates totaling $60 million to $75 million, including $35 million to $45 million for maintenance capital and $25 million to $30 million for growth projects. The company plans to direct growth capital toward margin-improvement and debottlenecking initiatives at both plants, an ammonia expansion and feedstock diversification project at the Coffeyville facility, water quality upgrades at both sites, and expanded diesel exhaust fluid production and loadout capacity, all aimed at supporting utilization rates above 95% of nameplate capacity and enhancing reliability and production performance across its nitrogen fertilizer operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (UAN) stock is a Hold with a $103.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Partners stock, see the UAN Stock Forecast page.

CVR Partners Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

CVR Partners reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with a net income of $43 million and EBITDA of $71 million, significantly higher than the previous year’s figures. The company announced a cash distribution of $4.02 per common unit, reflecting favorable market conditions and strong demand for ammonia during the fall application season. Despite a slight decrease in production, the average realized gate prices for ammonia and UAN increased substantially, contributing to the improved financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (UAN) stock is a Buy with a $97.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Partners stock, see the UAN Stock Forecast page.