CVR Partners (UAN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.05B
• Dividend Yield: 12.33%
• Average Volume (3M): 37.40K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: 16.52%
• EPS Growth: 141.96%
• Country: US
• Employees: 316
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): -0.97
• Shares Outstanding: 10,569,637
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 47,650
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 37,401
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.08
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.79
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.61
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.56
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $105.00 ▲(10.22% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

The score is primarily held back by weakening financial trends and above-average leverage, partially offset by strong valuation (low P/E and high yield) and supportive technicals (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Earnings-call takeaways are balanced: improved utilization guidance and solid liquidity/distro support the outlook, but recent operational disruptions add risk.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Consistent operating cash flow and positive free cash flow across 2021–2025 provide durable internal funding for maintenance, growth capex and distributions. Even with stepped-down FCF in 2025, the track record supports financing debottlenecking and reliability projects without immediate reliance on market financing.

Scale and asset base

Large, integrated ammonia and UAN plants give CVR Partners structural supply capability in U.S. Midwest and export markets. Scale supports customer relationships, distribution deals and export opportunity capture when global inventories tighten, underpinning long-term market position and bargaining power with distributors.

Focused capex and operational leadership

Targeted 2026 capex for debottlenecks, feedstock diversification and reliability directly addresses utilization and margin drivers. Funding from cash reserves and a recent COO appointment (operational experience) signal management is prioritizing durable capacity and reliability improvements to sustain utilization above 95% long term.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Above-average leverage for a cyclical fertilizer business limits financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk during commodity downturns. High net debt relative to equity constrains the company's ability to pursue larger growth projects or absorb prolonged weak pricing without pressuring liquidity or distributions.

Revenue and margin erosion

Sustained revenue declines and sharp margin compression materially reduce structural earnings power and free cash generation. Weaker pricing and margin normalization versus cycle highs mean the business has less cushion to fund capex, service debt and maintain distributions if fertilizer prices or volumes weaken further.

Operational reliability risk

Repeated or third‑party-related plant outages materially reduce sales volumes and raise direct operating costs, as seen in Q4. Operational execution and service-provider dependence create ongoing downside to utilization targets and cash flow, undermining the benefits of capex unless reliability is demonstrably improved.

CVR Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

CVR Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizer products in the United States. The company offers ammonia products for agricultural and industrial customers; and urea and ammonium nitrate products to agricultural customers, as well as retailers and distributors. CVR GP, LLC serves as the general partner of the company. CVR Partners, LP was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

CVR Partners generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of nitrogen fertilizers, including ammonia and UAN solutions. The company benefits from a diverse customer base that includes agricultural cooperatives, wholesalers, and retailers, allowing them to sell their products across various market segments. Key revenue streams are derived from the direct sales of these fertilizers to farmers and agricultural businesses. Additionally, the company capitalizes on favorable pricing dynamics in the agricultural sector, which can fluctuate based on supply and demand, thereby impacting their earnings. Significant partnerships with agricultural distributors and cooperative marketing agreements also contribute to their financial performance, as they help expand market reach and improve sales volume. Overall, CVR Partners' revenue model is closely tied to the agricultural cycles and the demand for crop nutrients, making it sensitive to changes in farming trends and commodity prices.

CVR Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mid-range fundamentals: earnings and cash flow remain positive, but revenue and margins have weakened notably from 2022–2023 peaks, and leverage is elevated for a cyclical business, increasing downside sensitivity if the cycle softens further.

Income Statement

Profitability has been strong compared with the 2020 loss year, but results have clearly cooled from the 2022–2023 peak. Revenue declined in each of the last three annual periods (2023–2025), and margins compressed meaningfully (gross margin fell from ~42% in 2022 to ~9% in 2025). Net margin remains positive in 2024–2025 (~12% to ~16%), but the trend suggests a more challenging pricing/commodity environment and less earnings power than the prior cycle highs.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the main constraint: debt-to-equity remains elevated (about 1.35x–2.04x across 2020–2025, ~1.57x in 2025). Equity levels are meaningful, and returns on equity have been solid in profitable years (notably very high in 2022–2023), but that profitability has normalized while debt remains sizable. Overall, the balance sheet is workable but carries above-average financial risk for a cyclical business.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has generally been healthy since 2021, with operating cash flow strong in 2022–2025 and free cash flow positive each year. That said, free cash flow has stepped down from 2022–2023 levels and declined sharply in 2025 (down ~29% year over year), and recent free cash flow covers a smaller portion of net income (~66% in 2025 versus ~90% in 2022–2023). The company still shows decent cash conversion, but volatility is evident as the cycle softens.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	606.04M	525.32M	681.48M	835.58M	532.58M
Gross Profit	163.37M	118.86M	232.46M	352.37M	162.04M
EBITDA	211.64M	178.90M	281.10M	403.16M	212.67M
Net Income	98.66M	60.90M	172.43M	286.80M	78.16M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	969.46M	1.02B	975.33M	1.10B	1.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.24M	90.86M	45.28M	86.34M	112.52M
Total Debt	593.42M	597.15M	550.48M	557.71M	615.88M
Total Liabilities	703.71M	725.65M	672.45M	688.59M	784.86M
Stockholders Equity	265.74M	293.07M	302.88M	411.81M	342.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	98.84M	113.47M	219.33M	256.80M	168.13M
Operating Cash Flow	149.64M	150.54M	243.53M	301.46M	188.72M
Investing Cash Flow	-44.09M	-31.89M	-2.72M	-44.62M	-20.34M
Financing Cash Flow	-127.17M	-73.07M	-281.86M	-283.02M	-86.43M

CVR Partners Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 95.26
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UAN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 95.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 104.76, below the 50-day MA of 104.73, and above the 200-day MA of 90.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.30 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for UAN.

CVR Partners Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UAN	68 Neutral	$1.05B	10.69	35.31%	12.33%	16.52%	141.96%
MOS	64 Neutral	$9.04B	16.80	4.61%	3.70%	3.82%	239.39%
SMG	62 Neutral	$4.09B	47.68	―	4.52%	-3.93%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
ICL	60 Neutral	$6.70B	29.64	3.86%	3.36%	1.77%	-8.72%
IPI	58 Neutral	$450.34M	-2.24	-33.37%	―	8.88%	-349.99%
FMC	49 Neutral	$1.73B	-0.84	-66.80%	16.68%	-13.42%	-136.59%

CVR Partners Corporate Events

CVR Partners Posts Q4 Loss But Maintains 2025 Payouts

CVR Partners, a nitrogen fertilizer producer specializing in ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate solutions for agricultural markets, operates major facilities in Coffeyville, Kansas, and East Dubuque, Illinois. Its infrastructure includes large-scale ammonia and UAN units, along with gasification capacity supporting hydrogen production for fertilizer upgrading.

On February 18, 2026, CVR Partners reported a fourth-quarter 2025 net loss of $10 million as a planned 32-day turnaround and subsequent startup issues at a third-party air separation plant reduced production and sales volumes. Despite weaker fourth-quarter results, the partnership posted full-year 2025 net income of $99 million on higher nitrogen fertilizer prices, increased EBITDA and net sales versus 2024, and declared a fourth-quarter cash distribution of $0.37 per unit, bringing total 2025 distributions to $10.54 per unit and underscoring still-supportive market conditions amid tight global supply and strong demand.

The most recent analyst rating on (UAN) stock is a Hold with a $111.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Partners stock, see the UAN Stock Forecast page.

CVR Partners Issues Preliminary 2025 Results Amid Turnaround

On January 26, 2026, CVR Partners reported preliminary estimates for its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, indicating a quarterly net loss of $7 million to $14 million but full-year net income between $95 million and $102 million, with EBITDA for 2025 estimated at $206 million to $216 million and ammonia utilization of 87% to 89%. The company completed a planned turnaround at its Coffeyville facility in early November 2025, but startup was delayed several weeks due to downtime at a third‑party air separation unit, and despite this operational disruption, management cited strong fourth-quarter demand and firm nitrogen fertilizer pricing, with year-end cash of $65 million to $75 million and long-term debt and finance lease obligations of $550 million to $600 million, underscoring solid annual profitability amid operational and geopolitical constraints.

The most recent analyst rating on (UAN) stock is a Buy with a $128.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Partners stock, see the UAN Stock Forecast page.

CVR Partners Appoints Michael Wright as New COO

On January 16, 2026, CVR Partners’ board appointed Michael H. Wright, Jr., a seasoned refining and capital projects executive currently serving as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at affiliate CVR Energy, as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the partnership, effective immediately. Wright’s appointment, backed by decades of leadership experience at CVR Energy, Solomon Associates and HollyFrontier, strengthens operational oversight at CVR Partners without any disclosed related-party transactions, selection arrangements or family ties, signaling a governance-focused move to align leadership across the affiliated energy and fertilizer businesses for potentially tighter operational coordination.

The most recent analyst rating on (UAN) stock is a Buy with a $129.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Partners stock, see the UAN Stock Forecast page.

CVR Partners Outlines 2026 Capital Spending and Growth Plans

On January 5, 2026, CVR Partners, LP announced preliminary 2026 capital spending estimates totaling $60 million to $75 million, including $35 million to $45 million for maintenance capital and $25 million to $30 million for growth projects. The company plans to direct growth capital toward margin-improvement and debottlenecking initiatives at both plants, an ammonia expansion and feedstock diversification project at the Coffeyville facility, water quality upgrades at both sites, and expanded diesel exhaust fluid production and loadout capacity, all aimed at supporting utilization rates above 95% of nameplate capacity and enhancing reliability and production performance across its nitrogen fertilizer operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (UAN) stock is a Hold with a $103.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CVR Partners stock, see the UAN Stock Forecast page.