Education
About Us
Working with TipRanks
Follow Us
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY)
OTHER OTC:IDCBY
Top Page
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China
(OTC:IDCBY)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
â–²(5.36% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:01/13/26
The score is driven by attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend) and a moderately constructive earnings outlook with controlled credit quality. These are tempered by mixed financial statement trends (TTM growth and leverage uncertainty) and weak-to-neutral technical momentum.
Positive Factors
Strong Asset Growth
Significant asset growth indicates robust expansion capabilities and a strong market position, enhancing long-term stability and competitive advantage.
Improved Risk Management
Effective risk management with a low NPL ratio strengthens the bank's financial health, ensuring sustainable operations and resilience against economic fluctuations.
Fee-Based Income Growth
Growth in fee-based income diversifies revenue streams, reducing reliance on interest income and enhancing long-term profitability and financial stability.
Negative Factors
Narrowing Net Interest Margin (NIM)
A declining NIM can compress profitability, challenging the bank's ability to generate interest income and potentially impacting future earnings growth.
Challenges in Real Estate Sector
Ongoing pressures in the real estate sector could lead to asset quality deterioration, increasing credit risk and impacting the bank's financial stability.
Soft Credit Demand
Weak credit demand may slow loan growth and revenue generation, potentially affecting the bank's ability to expand its lending portfolio and impact future growth.
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$343.17B
Dividend Yield4.1%
Average Volume (3M)2.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.8
Beta (1Y)0.29
Revenue Growth-2.99%
EPS Growth0.95%
CountryUS
Employees415,159
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.76
Shares Outstanding4,339,702,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,629
30 Day Avg. Volume2,607
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.47
Price to Book (P/B)0.46
Price to Sales (P/S)2.74
P/FCF Ratio3.91
Enterprise Value/Market Cap20.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.74
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.58
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$119.31B
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionIndustrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Treasury Operations segments. The Corporate Banking segment offers financial products and services to corporations, government agencies, and financial institutions. Its products and services include corporate loans, trade financing, deposit taking activities, corporate wealth management services, custody activities, and various corporate intermediary services. The Personal Banking segment provides financial products and services to individual customers. This segment's products and services comprise personal loans and cards, deposits, and personal wealth management and intermediary services. The Treasury Operations segment is involved in the money market transactions, investment securities, and foreign exchange transactions businesses, as well as in the holding of derivative positions. It also offers e-banking services, investment banking, financial leasing, and insurance services. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
How the Company Makes MoneyICBC generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and advances to customers, which constitutes a significant portion of its earnings. The bank also earns fees and commissions from various services such as wealth management, transaction processing, and trade finance. Additionally, ICBC engages in investment activities, contributing to its revenue through gains from securities and asset management. The bank benefits from a vast network of partnerships with corporations and financial institutions, allowing it to leverage cross-selling opportunities and maintain a competitive edge in the market. Furthermore, the bank's extensive branch network and digital banking services enhance customer acquisition and retention, thereby boosting its earnings potential.
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
ICBC demonstrated a solid recovery in profitability and asset growth, with effective risk management and expansion in inclusive finance. However, challenges remain in the real estate sector and credit demand, with narrowing NIM presenting ongoing pressures.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Stable and Positive Profitability
ICBC achieved operating income of CNY 611 billion, up 2% year-on-year, and net profit reached CNY 271.9 billion, up 0.5% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery trend.
Strong Asset Growth
Total assets exceeded CNY 52.81 trillion, up 8.2% from the end of last year. Customer loans reached CNY 30.45 trillion, up 7.3%, and bond investments totaled CNY 16.01 trillion, up 16.2%.
Improved Risk Management
The NPL ratio stood at 1.33%, down 1 basis point from the end of 2024, and the provision coverage ratio rose 2.3 percentage points to 217.1%.
Fee-Based Income Growth
Fee-based income recorded CNY 19.9 billion, up by 0.6%, with significant contributions from wealth management and fundamental service growth.
Inclusive Finance Expansion
Inclusive loans reached CNY 3.5 trillion, representing over 20% growth, with significant support to SMEs and manufacturing firms.
Negative Updates
Narrowing Net Interest Margin (NIM)
NIM is under pressure, standing at 1.28%, down 14 basis points year-on-year. The full-year NIM is expected to remain around 1.26%.
Challenges in Real Estate Sector
New NPLs were primarily concentrated in the real estate sector, with ongoing pressures impacting asset quality.
Soft Credit Demand
There is temporary weakness in both corporate and household credit demand, with expectations of gradual recovery as macro policies take effect.
Company Guidance
During the ICBC 2025 Q3 Earnings Call, the bank provided guidance indicating a stable recovery in profitability and growth, despite a challenging external environment. Key metrics highlighted include an operating income of CNY 611 billion, up 2% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 271.9 billion, marking a 0.5% increase from the previous year. The annualized ROA and ROE stood at 0.71% and 9.3%, respectively. Total assets exceeded CNY 52.81 trillion, reflecting an 8.2% growth since the end of last year. The NPL ratio was reported at 1.33%, with a CAR of 18.85% and a provision coverage ratio of 217.1%. The cost-to-income ratio was maintained at 26.55%, while the net interest margin (NIM) saw a slight decrease of 2 basis points. ICBC plans to continue strengthening its risk management and diversifying its income streams, with a focus on fee-based income and bond investments. The bank expects NIM to stabilize over the next 1 to 2 years, supported by manageable monetary policy impacts and refined liability cost management. Looking forward, ICBC remains confident in its strategic initiatives to deliver sustained growth and high-quality returns for its investors.Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong historical profitability and steady ROE are positives, supported by generally good cash conversion. Offsetting this, TTM revenue and free-cash-flow growth weakened sharply and the TTM debt-to-equity spike adds balance-sheet uncertainty.Income Statement
Profitability is a clear strength, with consistently high net profit margins (roughly mid-30% to mid-50% in annual periods) and solid bottom-line results. However, the growth profile has weakened: revenue declined slightly in recent annual reports and then dropped sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (about -36% revenue growth rate), which raises questions around near-term momentum and earnings durability despite strong margins.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Returns on equity are steady and healthy for a large diversified bank (around 9%–11% across periods), suggesting stable underlying profitability. Leverage looks moderate in the annual data (debt-to-equity around ~0.4–0.5), but the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) snapshot shows a materially higher debt-to-equity (~2.0) and much lower reported equity versus assets, which introduces uncertainty and elevates balance-sheet risk versus the prior annual trend.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is generally supportive: free cash flow has historically tracked net income well (free cash flow close to ~90%–99% of net income), indicating good earnings cash conversion. The main concern is volatility: free cash flow growth swings widely and turns sharply negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (down ~78%), and operating cash flow relative to the balance sheet is consistently low, which can be a risk signal for funding flexibility if pressure persists.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 938.34B | 660.39B | 838.05B | 913.56B | 939.89B | 881.36B |
| Gross Profit | 499.61B | 817.28B | 838.05B | 913.56B | 939.89B | 881.36B |
| EBITDA | 333.54B | 456.37B | 451.72B | 0.00 | 439.75B | 407.12B |
| Net Income | 366.21B | 365.86B | 363.99B | 361.13B | 348.34B | 315.91B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 52.82T | 48.82T | 44.70T | 39.61T | 35.17T | 33.35T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 4.75T | 5.30T | 4.74T | 4.19T | 4.90T |
| Total Debt | 9.95T | 2.04T | 1.90T | 5.04T | 4.64T | 4.38T |
| Total Liabilities | 48.86T | 44.83T | 40.92T | 1.43T | 1.28T | 1.27T |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.94T | 3.97T | 3.76T | 3.50T | 3.26T | 2.89T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 273.75B | 462.55B | 499.19B | 778.87B | 339.02B | 1.53T |
| Operating Cash Flow | 310.03B | 505.85B | 530.39B | 802.00B | 360.88B | 1.56T |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.12T | -1.47T | -891.85B | -910.62B | -674.56B | -1.14T |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.38T | 1.29T | 3.82T | 3.19T | -11.55B | -46.95B |
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Technical Analysis
Neutral
15.66
Price Trends
16.22
Positive
15.91
Positive
15.38
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Positive
45.39
Neutral
12.25
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IDCBY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 15.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.51, below the 50-day MA of 16.22, and above the 200-day MA of 15.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.25 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for IDCBY.
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $200.49B | 16.41 | 9.01% | 2.48% | -1.09% | 8.53% | |
71 Outperform | $306.67B | 15.35 | 12.32% | 4.14% | -9.54% | -22.46% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $802.53B | 15.00 | 16.06% | 1.79% | 1.89% | 12.32% | |
66 Neutral | $357.47B | 13.07 | 10.23% | 1.93% | 0.15% | 33.84% | |
61 Neutral | $343.17B | 5.83 | 9.68% | 4.10% | -2.99% | 0.95% | |
59 Neutral | $254.81B | 13.02 | 11.85% | 1.80% | -4.37% | 26.41% |
* Financial Sector Average
IDCBY
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China
16.24
2.70
19.97%
BAC
Bank of America
49.81
8.11
19.45%
HSBC
HSBC Holdings
89.73
32.47
56.70%
JPM
JPMorgan Chase
297.56
52.34
21.34%
MUFG
Mitsubishi UFJ
18.09
5.55
44.27%
WFC
Wells Fargo
82.58
10.84
15.11%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.