Ibotta, Inc. Class A (IBTA) AI Stock Analysis

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Ibotta, Inc. Class A

(NYSE:IBTA)

Rating:69Neutral

Price Target:―

Ibotta, Inc.'s financial health is strong, with robust growth and profitability metrics, though operational efficiency needs improvement. The stock's technical analysis suggests caution with bearish trends, and valuation is reasonable. However, the earnings call highlighted near-term challenges, particularly with revenue and EBITDA shortfalls, impacting the overall score.

Positive Factors

Advertising Strategy

Investments in newer measurement tools like the Cost-per-Incremental-Dollar approach are delivering incremental budget wins among CPGs.

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth and EBITDA Margin are expected to accelerate and expand as offer supply increases and new partnerships ramp up.

Unique Business Model

Ibotta’s closed-loop attribution model for its CPG partners and its IPN distribution across Walmart, Instacart, and DoorDash is seen as differentiated and should deliver long-term growth.

Negative Factors

Advertising Supply Issues

Advertising supply challenges are impacting revenue visibility and profitability, leading to a downgrade of Ibotta's shares from Buy to Neutral.

Redemption Revenue Decline

Redemption revenue growth is slowing from +76% to +26%, and now forecasted to be +8%.

Sales Challenges

Challenges such as insufficient offer supply and sales execution missteps have limited the company's ability to capitalize on redeemer growth.

Ibotta, Inc. Class A (IBTA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.40B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)389.80K

Price to Earnings (P/E)28.4

Beta (1Y)1.16

Revenue Growth14.75%

EPS Growth77.59%

CountryUS

Employees886

SectorGeneral

Sector StrengthN/A

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.02

Shares Outstanding25,310,349

10 Day Avg. Volume263,562

30 Day Avg. Volume389,802

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.04

Price to Book (P/B)2.87

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio11.91

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$59.86

Price Target Upside21.22% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

Ibotta, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIbotta, Inc. operates as a technology company that offers Ibotta Performance Network (IPN) that allows consumer packaged goods brands to deliver digital promotions to consumers. It offers promotional services to publishers, retailers, and advertisers through the IPN. The company was formerly known as Zing Enterprises, Inc. and changed its name to Ibotta, Inc. in 2012. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes MoneyIbotta generates revenue primarily through affiliate marketing partnerships with retailers and brands. The company earns a commission on sales generated through its platform, as users redeem cash-back offers. Retailers and brands pay Ibotta for driving sales and increasing customer engagement. Additionally, Ibotta may also generate revenue from advertising and promotional fees charged to brands seeking to feature their offers prominently within the app. Its ability to leverage data analytics to tailor offers and enhance user experience further strengthens its revenue streams. Significant partnerships with major retailers and consumer goods companies are key factors contributing to Ibotta's earnings.

Ibotta, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -1.50%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a positive outlook with significant growth in revenue, successful partnerships, and expansion of CPID campaigns with major clients. However, challenges remain in scaling CPID, D2C revenue decline, and lower gross margins.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Exceed Expectations

Ibotta delivered first quarter revenue of $84.6 million, up 3% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA of $14.7 million with a margin of 17%, both exceeding guidance by 3% and 22%, respectively.

Successful CPID Campaigns with Major CPG Clients

Ibotta reported successful campaigns with two major CPG clients, leading to a doubling and an 8x increase in redemption revenue year-over-year for these clients.

Expansion of Partnerships with Instacart and DoorDash

Ibotta expanded its network with the integration of Instacart and DoorDash, leading to attractive redemption rates and the inclusion of new categories like beer, wine, and spirits.

Growth in Total Redeemers

Total redeemers increased to 17.1 million, up 37% year-over-year, with growth driven by Instacart's launch and expansion with other partners like Walmart and Family Dollar.

Reduced Turnover in Sales Team

Turnover among sellers decreased significantly from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, indicating improved sales team stability.

Negative Updates

Decline in D2C Redemption Revenue

D2C redemption revenue was down 24% year-over-year, indicating challenges in direct-to-consumer channels.

Decrease in Redemption Revenue Per Redemption

Redemption revenue per redemption decreased by 7% year-on-year due to a mix shift toward third-party redemptions.

Challenges in Scaling CPID Efforts

The CPID platform is still in the pilot phase, requiring significant manual processes, which limits rapid scaling.

Lower Gross Margin

Non-GAAP gross margin decreased by nearly 700 basis points year-over-year due to increased costs associated with new partnerships and technologies.

Company Guidance

In the Q1 2025 earnings call, Ibotta revealed that they exceeded revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations, with both metrics surpassing the guidance provided in the previous quarter. Specifically, revenue reached $84.6 million, marking a 3% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EBITDA stood at $14.7 million, reflecting a 17% margin. The company highlighted exceptional growth in third-party publisher redemption revenue, up 38% year-over-year, although direct-to-consumer redemption revenue declined by 24%. Redeemers increased by 37% year-over-year, largely driven by partnerships with platforms like Instacart and Family Dollar. Despite a 15% decrease in redemptions per redeemer, the company maintained a positive outlook for Q2 2025, projecting revenue between $86.5 million and $92.5 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 22%. The company emphasized its strategic focus on scaling its new CPID platform, which has shown promising results in pilot tests, with redemption revenue for one client expected to double and another client up 8x year-over-year.

Ibotta, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ibotta, Inc. exhibits a strong financial position with solid revenue growth, high profitability margins, and robust balance sheet metrics. The company has effectively managed its cash flows, resulting in a favorable financial outlook. However, some areas such as operational efficiency, as indicated by declining EBIT and EBITDA margins, may require attention to maintain long-term growth.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Ibotta, Inc. shows strong revenue growth with a 14.74% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin is healthy at 86.36% for 2024, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin improved significantly to 18.72%, reflecting enhanced profitability. However, EBIT margin declined to 7.60%, and EBITDA margin to 9.81%, suggesting increased operational costs or reduced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is robust with zero total debt and a strong equity base, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.00. The equity ratio is a substantial 67.40%, indicating strong financial stability. Return on equity (ROE) is high at 15.03%, highlighting effective use of equity. The significant increase in stockholders' equity from 2023 to 2024 is a positive sign.

Cash Flow

Positive

Operating cash flow increased significantly, leading to a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.69. Free cash flow also improved to $105.72 million, with a favorable free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.54. The company demonstrates effective cash flow management, although the capital expenditure remains substantial.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
367.25M	320.04M	210.70M
	Gross Profit
317.13M	272.38M	161.48M
	EBIT
27.93M	56.00M	-40.31M
	EBITDA
36.01M	62.66M	-33.99M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
68.74M	38.12M	-54.86M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
349.69M	62.59M	45.50M
	Total Assets
678.43M	319.79M	195.08M
	Total Debt
0.00	64.45M	65.98M
	Net Debt
-349.28M	1.86M	48.16M
	Total Liabilities
221.15M	291.86M	229.87M
	Stockholders Equity
457.28M	27.93M	-34.79M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
105.72M	14.49M	-64.76M
	Operating Cash Flow
115.92M	22.72M	-56.50M
	Investing Cash Flow
-10.20M	19.67M	-35.68M
	Financing Cash Flow
181.38M	2.38M	74.05M

Ibotta, Inc. Class A Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price49.38

Price Trends

50DMA

48.38

Positive

100DMA

53.29

Negative

200DMA

59.51

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.04

Positive

RSI

47.95

Neutral

STOCH

22.13

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IBTA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 49.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.41, above the 50-day MA of 48.38, and below the 200-day MA of 59.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IBTA.

Ibotta, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (58)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CXM	80 Outperform	$2.28B	21.35	17.50%	―	6.75%	97.06%
OLO	74 Outperform	$1.47B	509.71	0.49%	―	23.31%	―
SEMR	72 Outperform	$1.50B	222.37	2.81%	―	22.75%	-47.45%
IBTA	69 Neutral	$1.40B	28.42	26.94%	―	14.75%	77.59%
AMPL	63 Neutral	$1.67B	―	-32.87%	―	8.56%	-4.21%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$4.97B	19.83	-16.90%	5.27%	13.61%	-24.47%
BTDR	49 Neutral	$2.48B	―	-32.09%	―	―	―

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

IBTA

Ibotta, Inc. Class A

49.38

-33.32

-40.29%

OLO

Olo

8.92

4.42

98.22%

SEMR

SEMrush Holdings

10.34

-4.61

-30.84%

CXM

Sprinklr

8.76

-0.20

-2.23%

BTDR

Bitdeer Technologies

13.99

6.70

91.91%

AMPL

Amplitude

12.74

4.33

51.49%

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.