Hawthorn Bancshares (HWBK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $228.93M
• Dividend Yield: 2.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.63K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.43
• Revenue Growth: 0.16%
• EPS Growth: 258.06%
• Country: US
• Employees: 255
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.90
• Shares Outstanding: 6,901,810
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,383
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,627
• PEG Ratio: 0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.17
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.67
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.61
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.28
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.60
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.73
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(7.30% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/08/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/08/26

The score is driven primarily by improved recent financial performance (strong 2024–2025 rebound) and supportive valuation (low P/E with a dividend). These positives are tempered by weaker current technical momentum and the key fundamental risk of earnings/cash-flow variability, while the recent dividend raise and improved profitability add support despite some credit-quality watch items.

Positive Factors

Rebound in revenue and profitability

A sustained step-up in revenue and a large margin recovery through 2024–2025 indicates the core banking franchise regained pricing power and efficiency. Stronger recurring net income improves cash generation, supports dividends and capital build, and increases resilience over the next several quarters.

Net interest income and margin expansion

Higher NII and a wider NIM reflect improved asset yield and lower funding costs, strengthening the primary revenue engine for a regional bank. Sustained NIM above historical levels provides durable operating leverage to absorb expenses and modest credit stress over the medium term.

Improved capital and leverage profile

Lower leverage and equity growth enhance loss-absorbing capacity and strategic flexibility. A stronger capital base supports dividend increases, underwriting growth without immediate external financing, and provides a buffer against cyclical credit losses across the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Earnings and cash-flow volatility

Material swings in earnings and operating cash flow reduce predictability of future profitability and free cash flow. For a community bank, volatility can constrain consistent capital returns, make planning for loan loss reserves harder, and weaken stakeholder confidence over time.

Rising non-performing assets & lower allowance coverage

A rise in problem loans combined with thinner allowance coverage raises the risk that future charge-offs will pressure earnings and capital. If credit deterioration continues, the bank may need to rebuild reserves, reducing distributable cash and slowing growth for multiple quarters.

Modest loan and deposit growth

Limited organic balance-sheet growth constrains sustainable revenue expansion and increases reliance on margin improvement or one-time items. Without steadier loan/deposit traction, durable EPS growth may lag peers and make earnings more sensitive to interest-rate shifts.

Hawthorn Bancshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Hawthorn Bank that provides commercial and personal banking services. It accepts checking, savings, money market, individual retirement, and other time deposit accounts; and certificates of deposit. The company also offers commercial and industrial, single payment personal, installment, commercial and residential real estate, and consumer loans, as well as equipment, operating, and small business administration loans; and debit and credit cards. In addition, it provides trust services that include estate planning, investment, and asset management services; and cash management, safety deposit box, brokerage, and Internet banking services. The company operates through 23 banking offices in Missouri communities, Jefferson City, Columbia, Clinton, Warsaw, Springfield, St. Louis, and the greater Kansas City metropolitan area. Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Jefferson City, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Hawthorn Bancshares generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and fees associated with various banking services. The company's key revenue streams include interest earned on loans to consumers and businesses, which typically constitutes the largest portion of its income. Additionally, Hawthorn Bank earns non-interest income through service charges on deposit accounts, mortgage origination fees, and wealth management services. The company may also engage in investment activities, further contributing to its earnings. Strategic partnerships with local businesses and community organizations enhance its market presence, while effective management of operational costs supports overall profitability.

Hawthorn Bancshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong rebound in 2024–2025 with sharply improved revenue growth and profitability, plus generally solid free cash flow coverage of net income. Offsetting this, results have been volatile (notably the 2023 trough) and cash conversion has been uneven across years, which raises durability risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily, with a sharp step-up in 2024–2025 (2025 revenue growth ~130% vs. ~25% in 2024). Profitability also rebounded strongly after a weak 2023: net margin improved from ~1% (2023) to ~17% (2024) and ~21% (2025), with operating margins likewise recovering. Key weakness is earnings volatility across the period (very strong 2021–2022, sharp drop in 2023, then recovery), which reduces confidence in durability of current margins.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate for a regional bank, with debt-to-equity improving from elevated levels in 2020–2022 (~1.2–1.6x) to below 1.0x in 2024–2025 (~0.89–0.94x). Equity has grown over the last few years, supporting the balance sheet. The main concern is that leverage remains meaningful and has fluctuated, and returns on equity were extremely low in 2023 before snapping back to healthier mid-teens levels in 2025—highlighting some underlying volatility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally solid: free cash flow has consistently covered most of net income (roughly ~85%–98% across the years shown), and 2025 shows a large free cash flow increase. However, operating cash flow relative to reported earnings is uneven (notably very low in 2021–2024, then materially better in 2025), suggesting variability in how well earnings translate into operating cash in certain years. Overall cash flow quality is good, but consistency is the key watch item.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	112.08M	109.67M	87.96M	83.22M	81.39M
Gross Profit	79.95M	71.88M	52.79M	73.63M	77.18M
EBITDA	31.34M	24.01M	2.54M	27.23M	30.50M
Net Income	23.80M	18.26M	956.00K	20.75M	22.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.89B	1.83B	1.88B	1.92B	1.83B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.63M	270.65M	282.19M	337.38M	468.85M
Total Debt	155.46M	132.69M	157.70M	154.21M	152.57M
Total Liabilities	1.72B	1.68B	1.74B	1.80B	1.68B
Stockholders Equity	174.23M	149.55M	136.09M	127.41M	148.96M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	22.84M	22.59M	15.51M	17.71M	29.62M
Operating Cash Flow	26.92M	25.59M	17.61M	20.28M	30.21M
Investing Cash Flow	-6.86M	1.25M	54.19M	-206.53M	-127.53M
Financing Cash Flow	33.26M	-69.30M	-62.07M	110.07M	76.87M

Hawthorn Bancshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 33.55
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HWBK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.65, above the 50-day MA of 33.46, and above the 200-day MA of 31.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.31 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HWBK.

Hawthorn Bancshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CBNA	70 Outperform	$227.86M	10.63	4.99%	―	―	―
HWBK	68 Neutral	$228.93M	10.24	14.27%	2.39%	0.16%	258.06%
CFFI	68 Neutral	$232.79M	8.76	10.89%	2.55%	8.53%	42.73%
FCCO	68 Neutral	$216.00M	11.77	30.46%	2.07%	11.59%	42.03%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
BPRN	67 Neutral	$226.62M	12.73	6.98%	3.50%	12.92%	56.52%
LCNB	66 Neutral	$230.94M	9.99	8.97%	5.32%	5.07%	228.39%

Hawthorn Bancshares Corporate Events

Hawthorn Bancshares Reports Strong 2025 Results, Raises Dividend

On January 28, 2026, Hawthorn Bancshares reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $6.2 million, or $0.90 per diluted share, slightly above the prior quarter and up sharply from a year earlier, as net interest margin expanded to 4.03% and deposit costs declined. For the full year 2025, net income rose 30% to $23.8 million, or $3.43 per diluted share, supported by higher net interest income, improved efficiency (with the efficiency ratio improving to 63.41% from 67.92%), modest loan and deposit growth, and stronger returns on assets and equity, while the bank maintained a well-capitalized position despite higher non-performing assets and lower allowance coverage. Reflecting this stronger profitability and capital position, the board also approved a 5% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.21 per share, payable April 1, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 15, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (HWBK) stock is a Hold with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hawthorn Bancshares stock, see the HWBK Stock Forecast page.