Hillman Solutions (HLMN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.78B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 927.59K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 82.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: 4.47%
• EPS Growth: 345.07%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,886
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): 0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 197,639,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,057,663
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 927,587
• PEG Ratio: -0.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.87
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.64
• 1Y Price Target: $13.05
• Price Target Upside: 50.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▼(-1.85% Downside)

Hillman Solutions' overall score is driven by a strong earnings call, indicating record performance and positive future guidance. However, technical analysis shows bearish momentum, and valuation metrics suggest the stock is overvalued. Financial performance is mixed, with growth overshadowed by operational and cash flow challenges.

Positive Factors

Record-Breaking Performance

Achieving record sales and EBITDA demonstrates strong operational execution and market demand, indicating robust business fundamentals and growth potential.

Improved Financial Metrics

Improved gross margins suggest effective cost management and pricing strategies, enhancing profitability and providing a cushion against future cost pressures.

Strategic Positioning

Strategic positioning and improved leverage indicate a strong foundation for capturing future market opportunities, supporting sustainable growth.

Negative Factors

Declining Margins

Declining margins suggest rising costs or pricing pressures, which could impact profitability and require strategic adjustments to maintain competitive edge.

Cash Flow Challenges

Reduced cash flow generation may limit financial flexibility and investment capacity, necessitating improved cash management to support long-term operations.

Market Volume Headwinds

Persistent market volume headwinds can hinder sales growth and require adaptive strategies to mitigate impacts on revenue and market share.

Hillman Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in North America. It offers hardware products, including anchor shackles and eye bolts, door hinges and chains, garage doors, safety hasps, gate hooks and latches, magnets, hooks and storage, corner braces and mending plates, and springs; and fasteners, such as anchors, ball bearings, bolts, kits, nails, nuts, pins, rivets, screws, spacers, threaded inserts, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and other accessories. The company also offers driveway markers/reflectors, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, survey and flagging tapes, and safety and caution products; threaded rods, aluminum tubes, and slotted and aluminum angles; wall hangings, including frame hardware, hooks, picture hanging, adhesives, mirrors, wires, and accessories, as well as picture hanging and tool-free mounting products; face masks, gloves, and glasses; keys and engravings; and electrical, plumbing, and automotive products and accessories. It offers its products under the DECK PLUS, GORILLA GRIP, HILLMAN, HARDWARE Essentials, minute key, POWERPRO, OOK, Fas.n.Tite, Distinctions, AWP, OZCO, The Steel Works, and Digz brand names. The company sells its products to hardware stores, home centers, mass merchants, pet supply stores, and other retail outlets, as well as industrial original equipment manufacturers. Hillman Solutions Corp. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Hillman Solutions generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its products to retailers and distributors in the hardware and home improvement sectors. The company's core revenue comes from the sale of fasteners, keys, and related products, which are essential for both consumer and industrial applications. Additionally, Hillman Solutions offers value-added services such as inventory management and merchandising solutions, which further contribute to its revenue. Strategic partnerships with major retailers enhance product visibility and distribution, driving sales. Furthermore, the company's focus on innovation and product development allows it to maintain a competitive edge, attracting new customers and retaining existing ones, which ultimately bolsters its earnings.

Hillman Solutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hillman Solutions demonstrates moderate financial health with stable revenue growth and improved leverage management. However, declining margins and cash flow challenges indicate areas for operational improvement. The company should focus on enhancing operational efficiency and cash flow management to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

Hillman Solutions shows a stable revenue growth with a TTM increase of 1.58%. The gross profit margin has decreased from 48.07% in 2024 to 23.67% in TTM, indicating a potential rise in cost of goods sold or pricing pressures. The net profit margin improved slightly to 1.44% in TTM, showing better profitability management. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined, suggesting operational efficiency challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company has improved its debt-to-equity ratio to 0.64 in TTM, indicating better leverage management compared to previous years. Return on equity has increased to 1.83%, reflecting improved profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset financing structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has decreased in TTM, with a coverage ratio of 0.61, indicating less cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow has declined by 14.70%, highlighting potential cash flow management issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains healthy at 0.39, showing some resilience in cash flow generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.54B	1.47B	1.48B	1.49B	1.43B	1.37B
Gross Profit	749.31M	707.90M	647.52M	639.78M	566.41M	586.48M
EBITDA	249.21M	215.83M	182.57M	159.90M	139.63M	198.56M
Net Income	37.48M	17.25M	-9.59M	-16.44M	-38.33M	-24.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.40B	2.33B	2.33B	2.47B	2.56B	2.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	37.73M	44.51M	38.55M	31.08M	14.61M	21.52M
Total Debt	784.18M	793.02M	836.06M	968.85M	1.01B	1.63B
Total Liabilities	1.17B	1.15B	1.18B	1.31B	1.41B	2.10B
Stockholders Equity	1.23B	1.18B	1.15B	1.16B	1.15B	364.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	41.07M	98.12M	172.27M	49.42M	-161.81M	46.81M
Operating Cash Flow	117.44M	183.34M	238.03M	119.01M	-110.25M	92.08M
Investing Cash Flow	-76.73M	-143.40M	-67.85M	-72.82M	-90.45M	-46.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-66.51M	-39.27M	-161.98M	-28.72M	193.33M	-45.10M

Hillman Solutions Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 8.66
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLMN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.61, below the 50-day MA of 9.07, and above the 200-day MA of 8.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.48 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HLMN.

Hillman Solutions Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RBC	77 Outperform	$13.96B	53.90	8.54%	―	8.27%	19.06%
TKR	76 Outperform	$5.57B	18.91	9.80%	1.74%	-1.01%	-12.13%
KMT	71 Outperform	$2.10B	22.69	7.36%	2.89%	-2.63%	-4.46%
TTC	66 Neutral	$6.87B	21.30	21.85%	2.16%	0.78%	-13.62%
SWK	64 Neutral	$10.93B	24.41	4.92%	4.63%	-1.40%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
HLMN	61 Neutral	$1.78B	82.30	3.11%	―	4.47%	345.07%

Hillman Solutions Corporate Events

Hillman Solutions Corp. Earnings Call Highlights Strong Q2 Performance

Hillman Solutions Corp. recently conducted its earnings call, revealing a generally positive sentiment driven by strong financial performance in the second quarter and effective management of tariff-related challenges. The company announced an increase in full-year guidance and a share repurchase program, although it acknowledged challenges such as declining sales in Canada and potential volume declines in the latter half of the year. Overall, the sentiment remains optimistic due to robust execution and a promising outlook despite some hurdles.

Hillman Solutions Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results

Hillman Solutions Corp. is a prominent provider of hardware-related products and solutions, catering to home improvement, hardware, and farm and fleet retailers across North America. The company is known for its extensive product portfolio and exceptional customer service, supported by a robust distribution network.

Hillman Solutions Announces $100 Million Share Buyback

On July 31, 2025, Hillman Solutions Corp.’s Board of Directors authorized a $100 million share repurchase program, allowing the company to buy back its common stock at management’s discretion through various methods. This decision follows the company’s strong financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, where net sales increased by 6.2% to $402.8 million, and net income rose to $15.8 million. Hillman also raised its full-year guidance for net sales and adjusted EBITDA, reflecting confidence in its business resilience and growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (HLMN) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillman Solutions stock, see the HLMN Stock Forecast page.