Hillman Solutions (HLMN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.83B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 995.08K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 87.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 1.93%
• EPS Growth: 260.13%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,886
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): 0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 197,639,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,055,376
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 995,082
• PEG Ratio: -0.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.15
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.92
• 1Y Price Target: $12.29
• Price Target Upside: 28.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(4.49% Upside)

Hillman Solutions' overall stock score is driven by positive earnings call sentiment and stable financial performance. However, technical indicators and valuation concerns, such as a high P/E ratio, weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for Hillman's products and services, suggesting effective market strategies and customer retention.

Improved Guidance

Increased financial guidance reflects management's confidence in future performance, driven by strategic initiatives and market opportunities.

Leverage Management

Improved leverage ratio enhances financial stability, reducing risk and increasing the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Negative Factors

Declining Margins

Slight decline in gross margins suggests potential cost pressures or pricing challenges, which could impact profitability if not addressed.

Cash Flow Challenges

Decreased operating cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues, which may limit the company's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives.

Tariff Impact

Significant tariff impacts could strain financial resources, affecting profitability and operational flexibility if not mitigated through strategic sourcing.

Hillman Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in North America. It offers hardware products, including anchor shackles and eye bolts, door hinges and chains, garage doors, safety hasps, gate hooks and latches, magnets, hooks and storage, corner braces and mending plates, and springs; and fasteners, such as anchors, ball bearings, bolts, kits, nails, nuts, pins, rivets, screws, spacers, threaded inserts, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and other accessories. The company also offers driveway markers/reflectors, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, survey and flagging tapes, and safety and caution products; threaded rods, aluminum tubes, and slotted and aluminum angles; wall hangings, including frame hardware, hooks, picture hanging, adhesives, mirrors, wires, and accessories, as well as picture hanging and tool-free mounting products; face masks, gloves, and glasses; keys and engravings; and electrical, plumbing, and automotive products and accessories. It offers its products under the DECK PLUS, GORILLA GRIP, HILLMAN, HARDWARE Essentials, minute key, POWERPRO, OOK, Fas.n.Tite, Distinctions, AWP, OZCO, The Steel Works, and Digz brand names. The company sells its products to hardware stores, home centers, mass merchants, pet supply stores, and other retail outlets, as well as industrial original equipment manufacturers. Hillman Solutions Corp. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Hillman Solutions generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its products to retailers and distributors in the hardware and home improvement sectors. The company's core revenue comes from the sale of fasteners, keys, and related products, which are essential for both consumer and industrial applications. Additionally, Hillman Solutions offers value-added services such as inventory management and merchandising solutions, which further contribute to its revenue. Strategic partnerships with major retailers enhance product visibility and distribution, driving sales. Furthermore, the company's focus on innovation and product development allows it to maintain a competitive edge, attracting new customers and retaining existing ones, which ultimately bolsters its earnings.

Hillman Solutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hillman Solutions demonstrates moderate financial health with stable revenue growth and improved leverage management. However, declining margins and cash flow challenges indicate areas for operational improvement. The company should focus on enhancing operational efficiency and cash flow management to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

Hillman Solutions shows a stable revenue growth with a TTM increase of 1.58%. The gross profit margin has decreased from 48.07% in 2024 to 23.67% in TTM, indicating a potential rise in cost of goods sold or pricing pressures. The net profit margin improved slightly to 1.44% in TTM, showing better profitability management. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined, suggesting operational efficiency challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company has improved its debt-to-equity ratio to 0.64 in TTM, indicating better leverage management compared to previous years. Return on equity has increased to 1.83%, reflecting improved profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset financing structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has decreased in TTM, with a coverage ratio of 0.61, indicating less cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow has declined by 14.70%, highlighting potential cash flow management issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains healthy at 0.39, showing some resilience in cash flow generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.51B	1.47B	1.48B	1.49B	1.37B	1.21B
Gross Profit	684.24M	707.90M	647.52M	639.78M	586.48M	520.48M
EBITDA	197.22M	215.83M	182.57M	159.90M	198.56M	146.82M
Net Income	21.73M	17.25M	-9.59M	-16.44M	-24.50M	-85.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.36B	2.33B	2.33B	2.47B	2.47B	2.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	34.19M	44.51M	38.55M	31.08M	21.52M	19.97M
Total Debt	777.48M	793.02M	836.06M	968.85M	1.63B	1.67B
Total Liabilities	1.15B	1.15B	1.18B	1.31B	2.10B	2.06B
Stockholders Equity	1.21B	1.18B	1.15B	1.16B	364.59M	373.97M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	65.51M	98.12M	172.27M	49.42M	46.81M	-5.39M
Operating Cash Flow	154.91M	183.34M	238.03M	119.01M	92.08M	52.36M
Investing Cash Flow	-117.67M	-143.40M	-67.85M	-72.82M	-46.07M	-53.49M
Financing Cash Flow	-60.45M	-39.27M	-161.98M	-28.72M	-45.10M	-7.05M

Hillman Solutions Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.57
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLMN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.31, below the 50-day MA of 9.65, and above the 200-day MA of 8.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLMN.

Hillman Solutions Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RBC	75 Outperform	$11.76B	47.89	8.56%	―	5.48%	16.88%
TKR	72 Outperform	$4.93B	16.10	10.52%	1.90%	-2.01%	-9.95%
KMT	67 Neutral	$1.62B	17.80	7.35%	3.76%	-3.91%	-12.49%
HLMN	64 Neutral	$1.83B	87.32	1.82%	―	1.93%	260.13%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
TTC	63 Neutral	$7.14B	22.12	21.85%	2.04%	0.78%	-13.62%
SWK	57 Neutral	$9.98B	20.45	5.38%	4.91%	-2.71%	―

Hillman Solutions Corporate Events

Hillman Solutions Announces $100 Million Share Buyback

On July 31, 2025, Hillman Solutions Corp.’s Board of Directors authorized a $100 million share repurchase program, allowing the company to buy back its common stock at management’s discretion through various methods. This decision follows the company’s strong financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, where net sales increased by 6.2% to $402.8 million, and net income rose to $15.8 million. Hillman also raised its full-year guidance for net sales and adjusted EBITDA, reflecting confidence in its business resilience and growth opportunities.

Hillman Solutions Confirms Director Elections and Approvals

On June 3, 2025, Hillman Solutions held its Annual Meeting via live webcast, where stockholders voted on several key proposals. The election of three directors, Jon Michael Adinolfi, Douglas J. Cahill, and Diane C. Honda, was confirmed for terms expiring in 2026. Additionally, the compensation of named executive officers for fiscal 2024 was approved on an advisory basis. The meeting also saw approval for increases in shares reserved under the 2021 Equity Incentive Plan and the Employee Stock Purchase Plan. Furthermore, Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for fiscal year 2025.