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Hillman Solutions (HLMN)
NASDAQ:HLMN
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Hillman Solutions
(NASDAQ:HLMN)
59Neutral
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Hillman Solutions reported solid 1Q25 results as revenue, EBITDA, and EPS fell in line with consensus estimates, driven by recent acquisitions and new business wins.
Supply Chain Management
Hillman has worked to reduce its exposure to Chinese suppliers from nearly half of product sourcing to one-third, with a new target of ~20% by year-end, providing a potential advantage over some competitors.
Negative Factors
Market Uncertainty
Revising guidance to focus on net leverage rather than free cash flow due to the uncertainty of tariff magnitude and timing seemed to unnerve the market.
Tariffs and Margins
This quarter confirmed our fears that tariffs would put downward pressure on gross margins.
Hillman Solutions (HLMN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.39B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.83M
Price to Earnings (P/E)75.8
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth0.31%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees3,886
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength78
IndustryManufacturing - Tools & Accessories
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding197,508,580
10 Day Avg. Volume2,304,149
30 Day Avg. Volume1,828,956
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.93
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.78
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.57Price Target Upside64.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
Hillman Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHillman Solutions (HLMN) is a leading provider of hardware solutions, specializing in fasteners, key duplication systems, and related hardware items. The company operates across various sectors including retail, industrial, and commercial markets, supplying a diverse range of products that cater to both professional and DIY customers. Hillman Solutions is recognized for its commitment to innovation, quality, and customer service, contributing to its strong presence in the hardware and home improvement industries.
How the Company Makes MoneyHillman Solutions makes money through the sale of its hardware products, including fasteners, key duplication systems, and various hardware accessories. The company's revenue streams are primarily derived from its relationships with major retailers, home improvement chains, and hardware stores, where its products are sold directly to consumers. Additionally, Hillman Solutions benefits from strategic partnerships and supply agreements that enhance its distribution networks. The company also invests in product innovation and customer support services that help solidify its market position and drive repeat business.
Hillman Solutions Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Hillman Solutions demonstrates improved profitability and operational efficiency, as reflected in its income statement. However, stagnant revenue growth and declining free cash flow present challenges. The balance sheet indicates a leveraged position but shows signs of improving equity returns. The company should focus on sustaining revenue growth and enhancing cash flow management to support long-term stability.Income Statement
Hillman Solutions shows a stable revenue with a gross profit margin of 100% in the latest year, reflecting strong cost management. The net profit margin improved to 1.17% from negative figures, indicating a turnaround in profitability. However, revenue growth has been stagnant with slight declines over the past years, and EBIT and EBITDA margins show moderate performance.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company has a moderately high debt-to-equity ratio indicating a leveraged position, yet its return on equity has turned positive in the latest year, suggesting improved efficiency in using shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at around 50%, which shows a balanced asset financing structure.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Free cash flow has decreased significantly from 2023 to 2024, indicating potential challenges in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting good cash conversion from operations. However, the decline in free cash flow raises concerns about future liquidity and investment capacity.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 1.47B | 1.48B | 1.49B | 1.43B | 1.37B | Gross Profit |
| 707.90M | 647.52M | 639.78M | 566.41M | 586.48M | EBIT |
| 88.80M | 60.93M | 39.89M | 2.24M | 65.77M | EBITDA |
| 88.80M | 182.57M | 159.90M | 139.63M | 198.56M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 17.25M | -9.59M | -16.44M | -38.33M | -24.50M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 44.51M | 38.55M | 31.08M | 14.61M | 21.52M | Total Assets |
| 2.33B | 2.33B | 2.47B | 2.56B | 2.47B | Total Debt |
| 793.02M | 836.06M | 968.85M | 1.01B | 1.63B | Net Debt |
| 748.51M | 797.51M | 937.77M | 990.89M | 1.61B | Total Liabilities |
| 1.15B | 1.18B | 1.31B | 1.41B | 2.10B | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.18B | 1.15B | 1.16B | 1.15B | 364.59M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 98.12M | 172.27M | 49.42M | -161.81M | 46.81M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 183.34M | 238.03M | 119.01M | -110.25M | 92.08M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -143.40M | -67.85M | -72.82M | -90.45M | -46.07M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -39.27M | -161.98M | -28.72M | 193.33M | -45.10M |
Hillman Solutions Technical Analysis
Negative
7.03
Price Trends
8.65
Negative
9.40
Negative
9.83
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.42
Positive
31.40
Neutral
19.50
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLMN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.58, below the 50-day MA of 8.65, and below the 200-day MA of 9.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HLMN.
Hillman Solutions Risk Analysis
Hillman Solutions disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hillman Solutions reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hillman Solutions Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $9.87B | 21.62 | 35.36% | 1.66% | -4.23% | -13.42% | |
66 Neutral | $17.66B | 17.27 | 19.15% | 2.55% | -0.88% | 0.04% | |
64 Neutral | $1.51B | 16.06 | 7.67% | 4.11% | -2.46% | -19.05% | |
63 Neutral | $4.21B | 11.55 | 5.28% | 250.72% | 4.13% | -9.42% | |
59 Neutral | $1.39B | 75.84 | 1.57% | ― | 0.31% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $130.06M | 9.98 | 9.21% | 2.10% | 2.04% | 70.29% | |
47 Neutral | $9.12B | 25.03 | 4.03% | 5.45% | -3.04% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
HLMN
Hillman Solutions
7.03
-2.95
-29.56%
EML
Eastern Company
21.23
-9.38
-30.64%
KMT
Kennametal
19.53
-4.24
-17.84%
LECO
Lincoln Electric Holdings
177.64
-41.88
-19.08%
SNA
Snap-on
311.71
47.61
18.03%
SWK
Stanley Black & Decker
58.94
-23.80
-28.76%
Hillman Solutions Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -7.13%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed sentiment with positive growth in several segments and an increase in adjusted EBITDA. However, significant challenges were noted due to the impact of tariffs, a decline in Canadian sales, and negative free cash flow. The company is confident in its ability to navigate these challenges, but uncertainty remains regarding the impact of tariffs on future performance.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Net Sales Increase
Net sales in the first quarter of 2025 totaled $359.3 million, an increase of 2.6% compared to the first quarter of 2024.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA increased by 4.2% to $54.5 million compared to $52.3 million last year, with EBITDA margins improving by 30 basis points to 15.2%.
Hardware and Protective Solutions Performance
The Hardware and Protective Solutions segment saw net sales increase by 5.6%, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 15.8% to $37.4 million.
RDS Business Return to Growth
Net sales in Robotics and Digital Solutions (RDS) were up 1.9% versus the year-ago quarter, reflecting a positive performance from the MinuteKey 3.5 rollout.
Negative Updates
Impact of Tariffs
The company estimates the impact of all new 2025 tariffs to be approximately $250 million on an annualized basis, which may affect volumes in the second half of the year.
Decrease in Canadian Sales
Net sales in the Canadian business decreased by 18.7% compared to the prior-year quarter, driven by a 12% decline in existing home sales and FX headwinds.
Free Cash Flow Decline
Free cash flow was negative $21.3 million for the quarter, compared to negative $6.1 million in the year-ago quarter.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, Hillman Solutions Corp. reported net sales of $359.3 million, marking a 2.6% increase from the prior year, driven by the Intex acquisition, which contributed four points of growth. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 4.2% to $54.5 million, with margins improving by 30 basis points to 15.2%. Despite the geopolitical and economic challenges, including tariffs anticipated to impact costs by $250 million annually, Hillman reiterated its full-year guidance for net sales between $1.495 billion and $1.575 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $255 million and $275 million. The company plans to mitigate tariff impacts through price increases and optimizing its supply chain, aiming to reduce reliance on Chinese suppliers to 20% by year-end. Additionally, adjusted gross margins slightly declined to 46.9%, with the Hardware and Protective Solutions segment seeing a 5.6% increase in sales, and Robotics and Digital Solutions growing by 1.9%. Despite challenges in the Canadian market, Hillman remains confident in its long-term resilience and partnerships.Hillman Solutions Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Hillman Solutions Reports Strong 2024 Financial Performance
Positive
Feb 18, 2025
Hillman Solutions reported its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results, highlighting a modest increase in fourth-quarter net sales and a substantial reduction in net loss compared to the previous year. The company achieved record adjusted EBITDA for the year, reflecting strategic acquisitions and debt reduction efforts. Jon Michael Adinolfi was appointed to the Board of Directors, enhancing leadership as Hillman continues to focus on growth and expanding its product offerings, forecasting a positive outlook for 2025.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.