Hillman Solutions (HLMN)
NASDAQ:HLMN
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Hillman Solutions
(NASDAQ:HLMN)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▼(-9.81% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/05/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (turnaround to positive earnings and generally positive free cash flow) but capped by thin margins and uneven cash conversion. Technicals are notably weak with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is a headwind given the high P/E and no dividend yield provided. Earnings-call guidance was steady-to-slightly positive (sales raised, EBITDA/FCF reiterated) but near-term margin/cash-flow pressure and tariff uncertainty remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Turnaround to Profitability
Hillman has moved from multi-year losses to positive net income and improving EBITDA margins, indicating its core hardware and merchandising model can generate profit at scale. This durability underpins reinvestment, debt reduction and sustained operations even through cyclical retail demand shifts.
Negative Factors
Tariff Exposure and Inventory Timing
Material annual tariff exposure introduces structural cost volatility and timing-driven earnings swings as high-cost inventory flows through P&L. Uncertainty over refunds and policy changes complicates margin forecasting and working-capital planning, weakening the predictability of free cash flow and profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Turnaround to Profitability
Hillman has moved from multi-year losses to positive net income and improving EBITDA margins, indicating its core hardware and merchandising model can generate profit at scale. This durability underpins reinvestment, debt reduction and sustained operations even through cyclical retail demand shifts.
Read all positive factors
Hillman Solutions Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across Hillman’s operating units and channels, showing where sales and growth are concentrated. Reveals customer or channel concentration, which segments are driving growth, and whether the company’s strategy and acquisitions are shifting revenue toward higher-margin or more stable businesses.
Breaks down revenue across Hillman’s operating units and channels, showing where sales and growth are concentrated. Reveals customer or channel concentration, which segments are driving growth, and whether the company’s strategy and acquisitions are shifting revenue toward higher-margin or more stable businesses.
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The Fly
The FlyHillman Solutions (HLMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.55B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)946.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)41.9
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth5.49%
EPS Growth92.98%
CountryUS
Employees3,886
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryManufacturing - Tools & Accessories
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding196,209,610
10 Day Avg. Volume1,147,365
30 Day Avg. Volume946,936
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.37
Price to Book (P/B)1.46
Price to Sales (P/S)1.16
P/FCF Ratio51.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.49
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.20
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.22
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.00Price Target Upside35.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.66B
Hillman Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hillman Solutions Corp., through its subsidiaries, delivers a broad spectrum of hardware products and associated merchandising solutions throughout North America. The company's extensive offerings include essential hardware components like anchor ...
How the Company Makes Money
Hillman primarily makes money by selling hardware and related products to retailers (and, in some cases, through programs it manages within retailers’ stores). Its revenue is largely generated from: (1) Product sales across its key categories—fast...
Hillman Solutions Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 27, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: modest organic top-line growth (3% YoY) with clear pockets of strength (RDS momentum, Canada +15%, hardware growth, accretive M&A) and an upward revision to net sales guidance. Offsetting positives were near-term margin pressure and earnings impact from tariff-timed high-cost inventory, a meaningful PS segment decline (-17%), negative free cash flow in the quarter, and slightly higher leverage. Management reiterated full-year adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow targets and expects margins to improve sequentially, signaling confidence in operational recovery. Given the mixture of encouraging strategic progress and short-term financial headwinds, the overall tone was cautiously constructive but measured.Positive Updates
Modest Top-Line Growth
Net sales for Q1 2026 were $370.1 million, up 3% year-over-year, driven by nearly a 5% lift from new business wins despite a ~2% headwind from core performance.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Compression in Q1
Adjusted EBITDA declined 8% to $50.1 million (from $54.5 million a year ago). Adjusted gross margin decreased 130 basis points to 45.6%, and adjusted EBITDA margin declined 170 basis points to 13.5%, with management calling Q1 the lowest margin quarter of the year due to timing of tariff-impacted inventory and soft volume.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Modest Top-Line Growth
Net sales for Q1 2026 were $370.1 million, up 3% year-over-year, driven by nearly a 5% lift from new business wins despite a ~2% headwind from core performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Hillman raised its 2026 net sales guidance to $1.63B–$1.73B (midpoint $1.68B, ~8% YoY), reflecting a $30M uplift from post‑quarter acquisitions (Campbell: >$20M; Delaney: >$10M), while reiterating full‑year adjusted EBITDA of $275M–$285M and free cash flow of $100M–$120M; management expects full‑year adjusted gross margin of 46%–47% with Q1 (45.6%) as the low watermark and sequential margin improvement thereafter. Q1 results that inform guidance included net sales of $370.1M (+3%), adjusted EBITDA $50.1M (−8%), adjusted EBITDA margin 13.5% (−170 bps), adjusted gross margin down 130 bps, Q1 free cash flow −$34.3M (net cash used in operations $19.5M), ending net debt $710M (net leverage 2.6x vs. 2.4x YE), liquidity $282M ($255M credit availability, $28M cash), and RDS/MinuteKey momentum (~3,900 MinuteKey 3.5 units in field, >5,000 expected by year‑end).Hillman Solutions Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.56B | 1.55B | 1.47B | 1.48B | 1.49B | 1.43B |
| Gross Profit | 720.50M | 615.25M | 707.90M | 647.52M | 639.78M | 566.41M |
| EBITDA | 249.74M | 254.16M | 215.83M | 182.57M | 159.90M | 139.63M |
| Net Income | 35.89M | 40.30M | 17.25M | -9.59M | -16.44M | -38.33M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.36B | 2.36B | 2.33B | 2.33B | 2.47B | 2.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 27.73M | 27.28M | 44.51M | 38.55M | 31.08M | 14.61M |
| Total Debt | 812.32M | 828.03M | 793.02M | 836.06M | 968.85M | 1.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.15B | 1.13B | 1.15B | 1.18B | 1.31B | 1.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.22B | 1.23B | 1.18B | 1.15B | 1.16B | 1.15B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 91.48M | 35.09M | 98.12M | 172.27M | 49.42M | -161.81M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 211.03M | 105.19M | 183.34M | 238.03M | 119.01M | -110.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -119.98M | -70.35M | -143.40M | -67.85M | -72.82M | -90.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -118.83M | -52.22M | -39.27M | -161.98M | -28.72M | 193.33M |
Hillman Solutions Technical Analysis
Positive
8.87
Price Trends
7.88
Positive
8.31
Negative
8.76
Negative
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
56.62
Neutral
72.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLMN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.55, above the 50-day MA of 7.88, and above the 200-day MA of 8.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLMN.
Hillman Solutions Risk Analysis
Hillman Solutions disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hillman Solutions reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hillman Solutions Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $20.43B | 70.73 | 8.90% | ― | 14.34% | 18.07% | |
74 Outperform | $8.78B | 26.49 | 24.05% | 1.95% | 2.65% | -11.03% | |
71 Outperform | $9.87B | 32.12 | 9.77% | 1.61% | 3.31% | -5.18% | |
64 Neutral | $2.70B | 19.80 | 10.46% | 2.74% | 7.16% | 28.79% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $13.42B | 35.37 | 4.12% | 4.42% | -0.06% | 3.45% | |
53 Neutral | $1.55B | 41.95 | 2.94% | ― | 5.49% | 92.98% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Hillman Solutions Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Hillman Solutions Shareholders Reelect Directors, Approve Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Stockholders held via live webcast on June 4, 2026, Hillman Solutions shareholders elected six directors—Jon Michael Adinolfi, Douglas J. Cahill, Diane C. Honda, Aaron P. Jagdfeld, David A. Owens, and Philip K. Woodl...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Hillman Solutions Outlines Long-Term Growth Targets at Investor Day
Positive
Mar 24, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Hillman Solutions hosted its inaugural Investor Day in Cincinnati, using the event to detail a strategic “blueprint” centered on its core fastener and hardware business, expansion into additional categories, and deep...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.