Hillman Solutions (HLMN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.51B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.31M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 85.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: 0.31%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,886
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 89
• Industry: Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 197,508,580
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,523,275
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,313,092
• PEG Ratio: 1.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 28.34
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.54
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.82
• 1Y Price Target: $10.83
• Price Target Upside: 36.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.00 ▲(0.63%Upside)

Hillman Solutions scores moderately with a stable financial footing and effective cash management. However, the stock faces valuation challenges with a high P/E ratio and no dividend yield. Technical indicators suggest lackluster momentum, and tariff-related uncertainties could impact future growth.

Positive Factors

Earnings Growth

With leverage on the decline and normalization in margins/cash flow, the bolt-on M&A story returns to a steady growth story, potentially leading to better earnings growth and a better multiple over time.

Insider Activity

A 'Krafty' CFO insider purchase signals a disconnect between the share price and fundamentals.

Strategic Positioning

Hillman has worked to reduce its exposure to Chinese suppliers from nearly half of product sourcing to one-third, with a new target of ~20% by year-end, providing a potential advantage over some competitors.

Negative Factors

Gross Margin Pressure

This quarter confirmed fears that tariffs would put downward pressure on gross margins.

Market Skepticism

The market isn’t so sure the company can fully offset the impact on tariffs with price, as indicated by share price weakness.

Tariff Impact

Revising guidance to focus on net leverage rather than free cash flow due to the uncertainty of tariff magnitude and timing seemed to unnerve the market.

Hillman Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) is a leading provider in the hardware and home improvement industry. The company specializes in delivering comprehensive solutions to complex challenges in the retail hardware sector. Its core products and services include fasteners, key duplication systems, and other small hardware items, focused on enhancing the customer experience for both DIY consumers and professional contractors. Hillman serves a diverse range of clients, including big-box retailers, home improvement centers, and industrial distributors.

How the Company Makes Money

Hillman Solutions generates revenue through the sale of its extensive range of hardware products and solutions. The company primarily earns money by providing fasteners, key duplication systems, and related hardware items to a variety of retail and industrial customers. Its key revenue streams include product sales to large-scale retailers and home improvement stores, where Hillman's products are often a staple. Additionally, Hillman benefits from strategic partnerships with major retail chains, enhancing its market reach and distribution capabilities. The company's revenue is further bolstered by its commitment to innovation and customer service, ensuring continued demand from its diverse customer base.

Hillman Solutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hillman Solutions demonstrates a stable financial position with effective cash management and moderate leverage. While profitability margins are thin, operational efficiency is solid. The balance sheet shows strength with a balanced equity structure, though future growth potential appears limited. Overall, Hillman Solutions maintains a steady financial standing, suitable for a mature industry environment.

Income Statement

Hillman Solutions shows a moderate income statement performance. The Gross Profit Margin stands at 58.6% TTM, showcasing strong production efficiency. The Net Profit Margin is low at 1.2% TTM, indicating slim profitability. Revenue grew by 0.6% TTM, reflecting stability but limited expansion. The EBIT and EBITDA Margins are moderate, at 6.0% and 12.7% TTM respectively, suggesting reasonable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is in a solid position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.69, indicating manageable leverage. Return on Equity is modest at 1.6% TTM, reflecting limited profitability relative to shareholder equity. The company maintains a strong Equity Ratio of 50.7% TTM, showing a balanced financial structure with significant asset backing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals solid fundamentals. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is negative, but Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is robust at 9.92 TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 4.17 TTM, further supporting effective cash management, despite potential concerns over future growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.48B	1.47B	1.48B	1.49B	1.43B	1.37B
Gross Profit	678.09M	707.90M	647.52M	639.78M	566.41M	586.48M
EBITDA	188.35M	215.83M	182.57M	159.90M	139.63M	198.56M
Net Income	18.43M	17.25M	-9.59M	-16.44M	-38.33M	-24.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.33B	2.33B	2.33B	2.47B	2.56B	2.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	36.31M	44.51M	38.55M	31.08M	14.61M	21.52M
Total Debt	811.30M	793.02M	836.06M	968.85M	1.01B	1.63B
Total Liabilities	1.15B	1.15B	1.18B	1.31B	1.41B	2.10B
Stockholders Equity	1.18B	1.18B	1.15B	1.16B	1.15B	364.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	76.80M	98.12M	172.27M	49.42M	-161.81M	46.81M
Operating Cash Flow	182.68M	183.34M	238.03M	119.01M	-110.25M	92.08M
Investing Cash Flow	-122.34M	-143.40M	-67.85M	-72.82M	-90.45M	-46.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-45.29M	-39.27M	-161.98M	-28.72M	193.33M	-45.10M

Hillman Solutions Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 7.95
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLMN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.17, above the 50-day MA of 7.38, and below the 200-day MA of 9.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HLMN.

Hillman Solutions Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LECO	76 Outperform	$12.31B	27.58	34.83%	1.36%	-2.29%	-14.49%
SNA	72 Outperform	$16.63B	16.78	19.15%	2.69%	-0.88%	0.04%
SWK	72 Outperform	$11.28B	31.37	4.03%	4.50%	-3.04%	―
KMT	71 Outperform	$1.82B	17.24	8.69%	3.30%	-2.93%	2.74%
HLMN	67 Neutral	$1.51B	85.76	1.57%	―	0.31%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$10.82B	15.59	5.20%	1.89%	3.09%	-26.84%
EML	56 Neutral	$147.52M	10.26	9.10%	1.83%	2.06%	47.43%

Hillman Solutions Corporate Events

Hillman Solutions Confirms Director Elections and Approvals

On June 3, 2025, Hillman Solutions held its Annual Meeting via live webcast, where stockholders voted on several key proposals. The election of three directors, Jon Michael Adinolfi, Douglas J. Cahill, and Diane C. Honda, was confirmed for terms expiring in 2026. Additionally, the compensation of named executive officers for fiscal 2024 was approved on an advisory basis. The meeting also saw approval for increases in shares reserved under the 2021 Equity Incentive Plan and the Employee Stock Purchase Plan. Furthermore, Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for fiscal year 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (HLMN) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillman Solutions stock, see the HLMN Stock Forecast page.