Hillman Solutions (HLMN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.55B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.98M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 80.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.99
• Revenue Growth: 0.31%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,886
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 90
• Industry: Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 197,508,580
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,433,316
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,980,497
• PEG Ratio: 11.21
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.36
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $10.83
• Price Target Upside: 45.96% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Hillman Solutions' stock shows a stable financial performance with solid cash management and moderate leverage. However, it faces challenges with high P/E valuation and bearish technical indicators. The mixed sentiment from the earnings call, with growth in certain segments but tariff-related challenges, further adds to the cautious outlook. Overall, while the company has a sound financial foundation, current market conditions and valuation pose risks that weigh on the stock's overall attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Business Growth

Robotics and Digital Solutions returned to growth, a positive inflection from previous quarters.

Insider Activity

A 'Krafty' CFO insider purchase signals a disconnect between the share price and fundamentals, suggesting potential undervaluation.

Supply Chain Strategy

Hillman is better positioned for tariff uncertainty by reducing its exposure to Chinese suppliers from nearly half to one-third, with a new target of approximately 20%.

Negative Factors

Financial Guidance

Revising guidance to focus on net leverage rather than free cash flow due to tariff uncertainty seemed to unnerve the market.

Market Concerns

The market isn’t so sure the company can fully offset the impact on tariffs with price, as indicated by share price weakness.

Tariff Impact

This quarter confirmed fears that tariffs would put downward pressure on gross margins.

Hillman Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in North America. It offers hardware products, including anchor shackles and eye bolts, door hinges and chains, garage doors, safety hasps, gate hooks and latches, magnets, hooks and storage, corner braces and mending plates, and springs; and fasteners, such as anchors, ball bearings, bolts, kits, nails, nuts, pins, rivets, screws, spacers, threaded inserts, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and other accessories. The company also offers driveway markers/reflectors, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, survey and flagging tapes, and safety and caution products; threaded rods, aluminum tubes, and slotted and aluminum angles; wall hangings, including frame hardware, hooks, picture hanging, adhesives, mirrors, wires, and accessories, as well as picture hanging and tool-free mounting products; face masks, gloves, and glasses; keys and engravings; and electrical, plumbing, and automotive products and accessories. It offers its products under the DECK PLUS, GORILLA GRIP, HILLMAN, HARDWARE Essentials, minute key, POWERPRO, OOK, Fas.n.Tite, Distinctions, AWP, OZCO, The Steel Works, and Digz brand names. The company sells its products to hardware stores, home centers, mass merchants, pet supply stores, and other retail outlets, as well as industrial original equipment manufacturers. Hillman Solutions Corp. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Hillman Solutions makes money through the sale of its hardware products, including fasteners, key duplication systems, and various hardware accessories. The company's revenue streams are primarily derived from its relationships with major retailers, home improvement chains, and hardware stores, where its products are sold directly to consumers. Additionally, Hillman Solutions benefits from strategic partnerships and supply agreements that enhance its distribution networks. The company also invests in product innovation and customer support services that help solidify its market position and drive repeat business.

Hillman Solutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hillman Solutions demonstrates a stable financial position with effective cash management and moderate leverage. While profitability margins are thin, operational efficiency is solid. The balance sheet shows strength with a balanced equity structure, though future growth potential appears limited. Overall, Hillman Solutions maintains a steady financial standing, suitable for a mature industry environment.

Income Statement

Hillman Solutions shows a moderate income statement performance. The Gross Profit Margin stands at 58.6% TTM, showcasing strong production efficiency. The Net Profit Margin is low at 1.2% TTM, indicating slim profitability. Revenue grew by 0.6% TTM, reflecting stability but limited expansion. The EBIT and EBITDA Margins are moderate, at 6.0% and 12.7% TTM respectively, suggesting reasonable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is in a solid position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.69, indicating manageable leverage. Return on Equity is modest at 1.6% TTM, reflecting limited profitability relative to shareholder equity. The company maintains a strong Equity Ratio of 50.7% TTM, showing a balanced financial structure with significant asset backing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals solid fundamentals. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is negative, but Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is robust at 9.92 TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 4.17 TTM, further supporting effective cash management, despite potential concerns over future growth.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.48B	1.47B	1.48B	1.49B	1.43B	1.37B
	Gross Profit
678.09M	707.90M	647.52M	639.78M	566.41M	586.48M
	EBIT
89.11M	88.80M	60.93M	39.89M	2.24M	65.77M
	EBITDA
188.35M	215.83M	182.57M	159.90M	139.63M	198.56M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
18.43M	17.25M	-9.59M	-16.44M	-38.33M	-24.50M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
36.31M	44.51M	38.55M	31.08M	14.61M	21.52M
	Total Assets
2.33B	2.33B	2.33B	2.47B	2.56B	2.47B
	Total Debt
811.30M	793.02M	836.06M	968.85M	1.01B	1.63B
	Net Debt
774.99M	748.51M	797.51M	937.77M	990.89M	1.61B
	Total Liabilities
1.15B	1.15B	1.18B	1.31B	1.41B	2.10B
	Stockholders Equity
1.18B	1.18B	1.15B	1.16B	1.15B	364.59M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
76.80M	98.12M	172.27M	49.42M	-161.81M	46.81M
	Operating Cash Flow
182.68M	183.34M	238.03M	119.01M	-110.25M	92.08M
	Investing Cash Flow
-122.34M	-143.40M	-67.85M	-72.82M	-90.45M	-46.07M
	Financing Cash Flow
-45.29M	-39.27M	-161.98M	-28.72M	193.33M	-45.10M

Hillman Solutions Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.42
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLMN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.63, below the 50-day MA of 8.09, and below the 200-day MA of 9.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HLMN.

Hillman Solutions Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LECO	76 Outperform	$10.85B	23.99	34.83%	1.50%	-2.29%	-14.49%
SNA	71 Outperform	$17.09B	17.10	19.15%	2.48%	-0.88%	0.04%
KMT	69 Neutral	$1.67B	15.88	8.69%	3.77%	-2.93%	2.74%
SWK	65 Neutral	$10.26B	28.18	4.03%	4.92%	-3.04%	―
Sector *	64 Neutral	$4.39B	11.81	5.17%	249.38%	3.98%	-12.17%
HLMN	59 Neutral	$1.55B	80.04	1.57%	―	0.31%	―
EML	59 Neutral	$142.97M	9.94	9.10%	1.89%	2.06%	47.43%

Hillman Solutions Corporate Events

Hillman Solutions Reports Strong 2024 Financial Performance

Hillman Solutions reported its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results, highlighting a modest increase in fourth-quarter net sales and a substantial reduction in net loss compared to the previous year. The company achieved record adjusted EBITDA for the year, reflecting strategic acquisitions and debt reduction efforts. Jon Michael Adinolfi was appointed to the Board of Directors, enhancing leadership as Hillman continues to focus on growth and expanding its product offerings, forecasting a positive outlook for 2025.