Hillman Solutions (HLMN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.12B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 946.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 57.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 4.47%
• EPS Growth: 345.07%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,886
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): 0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 197,289,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,147,365
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 946,936
• PEG Ratio: -0.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.87
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.51
• 1Y Price Target: $13.60
• Price Target Upside: 26.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.50 ▼(-2.23% Downside)

Hillman Solutions' overall score is driven by a strong earnings call, indicating record performance and positive future guidance. However, technical analysis shows bearish momentum, and valuation metrics suggest the stock is overvalued. Financial performance is mixed, with growth overshadowed by operational and cash flow challenges.

Positive Factors

Record sales & EBITDA

Delivering record net sales (+8%) and a 36% surge in adjusted EBITDA demonstrates durable demand and operational leverage across retail programs. Sustained higher EBITDA strengthens internal cash generation capacity, supports reinvestment in merchandising and kiosks, and aids continued deleveraging and strategic execution.

Structural margin improvement

Material expansion in adjusted gross and EBITDA margins reflects effective pricing, tariff mitigation and cost management that can persist beyond a single quarter. Higher structurally improved margins boost resilience to commodity and retail price swings, support sustained profitability and increase capacity to fund growth initiatives.

Improving leverage & balance sheet

A measurable reduction in leverage and a stronger equity position enhance financial flexibility. Lower leverage reduces interest-cost sensitivity and gives Hillman more room to invest in merchandising, digital/key solutions and inventory programs or pursue opportunistic M&A while better absorbing retail-cycle volatility.

Negative Factors

Weak cash flow generation

Significant decline in free cash flow and weaker operating cash conversion constrains the firm's ability to self-fund growth, capital expenditures, or accelerated debt paydown. Persistent cash conversion weakness increases reliance on external financing and raises liquidity risk if retail partners or inventory cycles deteriorate.

Meaningful remaining debt burden

Although leverage has improved, a debt-to-equity ratio near 0.64 indicates material outstanding obligations. This remaining indebtedness limits strategic flexibility, raises interest expense sensitivity, and could pressure cash flow and investment capacity if margins or sales soften over the medium term.

Tariffs and volume headwinds

Ongoing tariff exposure and persistent retailer volume headwinds elevate working capital needs and can compress margins as price-cost timing normalizes. Structural tariff risk and softer retail volumes may continue to weigh on cash flow, margin sustainability, and inventory carrying costs over multiple quarters.

Hillman Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in North America. It offers hardware products, including anchor shackles and eye bolts, door hinges and chains, garage doors, safety hasps, gate hooks and latches, magnets, hooks and storage, corner braces and mending plates, and springs; and fasteners, such as anchors, ball bearings, bolts, kits, nails, nuts, pins, rivets, screws, spacers, threaded inserts, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and other accessories. The company also offers driveway markers/reflectors, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, survey and flagging tapes, and safety and caution products; threaded rods, aluminum tubes, and slotted and aluminum angles; wall hangings, including frame hardware, hooks, picture hanging, adhesives, mirrors, wires, and accessories, as well as picture hanging and tool-free mounting products; face masks, gloves, and glasses; keys and engravings; and electrical, plumbing, and automotive products and accessories. It offers its products under the DECK PLUS, GORILLA GRIP, HILLMAN, HARDWARE Essentials, minute key, POWERPRO, OOK, Fas.n.Tite, Distinctions, AWP, OZCO, The Steel Works, and Digz brand names. The company sells its products to hardware stores, home centers, mass merchants, pet supply stores, and other retail outlets, as well as industrial original equipment manufacturers. Hillman Solutions Corp. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Hillman Solutions generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its products to retailers and distributors in the hardware and home improvement sectors. The company's core revenue comes from the sale of fasteners, keys, and related products, which are essential for both consumer and industrial applications. Additionally, Hillman Solutions offers value-added services such as inventory management and merchandising solutions, which further contribute to its revenue. Strategic partnerships with major retailers enhance product visibility and distribution, driving sales. Furthermore, the company's focus on innovation and product development allows it to maintain a competitive edge, attracting new customers and retaining existing ones, which ultimately bolsters its earnings.

Hillman Solutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hillman Solutions shows mixed financial performance. Revenue growth and improved net profit margins are positive, but operational efficiency and cash flow issues need attention. The balance sheet indicates reduced leverage and improved equity returns, yet debt levels remain a concern.

Income Statement

Hillman Solutions has shown a positive revenue growth rate of 2.1% in the TTM, indicating a recovery from previous declines. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 34.5%, although it has decreased from 48.1% in the previous year. The net profit margin improved to 2.4% from 1.2%, reflecting better profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased slightly, suggesting some operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.64, indicating a reduction in leverage compared to previous years. Return on equity has increased to 3.1%, showing improved profitability. The equity ratio stands at 51.3%, reflecting a stable capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet shows signs of strengthening, but the company still carries a significant amount of debt.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has decreased, resulting in a lower operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.61. Free cash flow has declined significantly by 42.6%, impacting the free cash flow to net income ratio, which stands at 0.39. The cash flow situation indicates potential liquidity challenges, despite positive net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.54B	1.47B	1.48B	1.49B	1.43B	1.37B
Gross Profit	749.31M	707.90M	647.52M	639.78M	566.41M	586.48M
EBITDA	249.21M	215.83M	182.57M	159.90M	139.63M	198.56M
Net Income	37.48M	17.25M	-9.59M	-16.44M	-38.33M	-24.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.40B	2.33B	2.33B	2.47B	2.56B	2.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	37.73M	44.51M	38.55M	31.08M	14.61M	21.52M
Total Debt	784.18M	793.02M	836.06M	968.85M	1.01B	1.63B
Total Liabilities	1.17B	1.15B	1.18B	1.31B	1.41B	2.10B
Stockholders Equity	1.23B	1.18B	1.15B	1.16B	1.15B	364.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	41.07M	98.12M	172.27M	49.42M	-161.81M	46.81M
Operating Cash Flow	117.44M	183.34M	238.03M	119.01M	-110.25M	92.08M
Investing Cash Flow	-76.73M	-143.40M	-67.85M	-72.82M	-90.45M	-46.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-66.51M	-39.27M	-161.98M	-28.72M	193.33M	-45.10M

Hillman Solutions Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.74
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLMN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.74, above the 50-day MA of 9.24, and above the 200-day MA of 8.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.95 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLMN.

Hillman Solutions Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RBC	77 Outperform	$16.34B	63.06	8.54%	―	8.27%	19.06%
TKR	69 Neutral	$6.90B	23.39	9.80%	1.61%	-1.01%	-12.13%
TTC	69 Neutral	$9.37B	29.88	21.04%	1.95%	-1.53%	-21.19%
KMT	65 Neutral	$2.92B	25.03	8.70%	2.74%	-2.63%	-4.46%
SWK	65 Neutral	$13.11B	30.60	―	4.42%	-1.40%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
HLMN	61 Neutral	$2.12B	57.01	3.11%	―	4.47%	345.07%