Hillman Solutions (HLMN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.89B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 946.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 50.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.00
• Revenue Growth: 4.47%
• EPS Growth: 345.07%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,886
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): 0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 197,289,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,147,365
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 946,936
• PEG Ratio: -0.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.87
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.64
• 1Y Price Target: $13.05
• Price Target Upside: 36.22% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(4.38% Upside)

Hillman Solutions' overall score is driven by a strong earnings call, indicating record performance and positive future guidance. However, technical analysis shows bearish momentum, and valuation metrics suggest the stock is overvalued. Financial performance is mixed, with growth overshadowed by operational and cash flow challenges.

Positive Factors

Retail Merchandising & Replenishment Services

Hillman's integrated merchandising, planogram execution and replenishment create durable, program-based revenue with high retailer stickiness. These services raise switching costs, stabilize shelf velocity and recurring sales, supporting predictable volumes and retention over multiple quarters.

Margin Expansion & Operational Improvement

Substantial year-over-year margin improvement driven by pricing discipline and tariff management indicates stronger gross-to-operating profitability. If sustained, expanded margins enhance free cash generation and resiliency, enabling reinvestment, deleveraging, and funding of strategic initiatives over the medium term.

Improving Leverage & Capital Structure

Reduced leverage and a stronger equity ratio lower financial risk and increase strategic flexibility. A healthier capital structure improves ability to absorb retail cyclicality, pursue targeted M&A or capex, and reduces interest burden pressure, supporting stability across the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Declining Operating and Free Cash Flow

A large drop in free cash flow and weaker cash conversion of earnings undermines liquidity and constrains strategic options. Persistent FCF weakness limits capacity to pay down debt, fund investments or absorb tariff-related working capital, raising financing and execution risk over coming quarters.

Material Gross Margin Contraction Year-over-Year

A pronounced YoY gross margin decline signals structural cost or mix pressures rather than transient volatility. Sustained margin erosion would force deeper pricing actions or cost cuts, risking volume loss or impaired service levels, and could compress net margins and long-term cash generation.

Tariff Inventory Costs and Volume Headwinds

Significant tariff-related inventory costs tie up cash and depress margins as price-cost timing normalizes. Coupled with ongoing market-volume weakness and regional softness in Canada, these factors can pressure sales, working capital and cash flow for multiple quarters despite operational improvements.

Hillman Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in North America. It offers hardware products, including anchor shackles and eye bolts, door hinges and chains, garage doors, safety hasps, gate hooks and latches, magnets, hooks and storage, corner braces and mending plates, and springs; and fasteners, such as anchors, ball bearings, bolts, kits, nails, nuts, pins, rivets, screws, spacers, threaded inserts, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and other accessories. The company also offers driveway markers/reflectors, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, survey and flagging tapes, and safety and caution products; threaded rods, aluminum tubes, and slotted and aluminum angles; wall hangings, including frame hardware, hooks, picture hanging, adhesives, mirrors, wires, and accessories, as well as picture hanging and tool-free mounting products; face masks, gloves, and glasses; keys and engravings; and electrical, plumbing, and automotive products and accessories. It offers its products under the DECK PLUS, GORILLA GRIP, HILLMAN, HARDWARE Essentials, minute key, POWERPRO, OOK, Fas.n.Tite, Distinctions, AWP, OZCO, The Steel Works, and Digz brand names. The company sells its products to hardware stores, home centers, mass merchants, pet supply stores, and other retail outlets, as well as industrial original equipment manufacturers. Hillman Solutions Corp. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Hillman Solutions generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its products to retailers and distributors in the hardware and home improvement sectors. The company's core revenue comes from the sale of fasteners, keys, and related products, which are essential for both consumer and industrial applications. Additionally, Hillman Solutions offers value-added services such as inventory management and merchandising solutions, which further contribute to its revenue. Strategic partnerships with major retailers enhance product visibility and distribution, driving sales. Furthermore, the company's focus on innovation and product development allows it to maintain a competitive edge, attracting new customers and retaining existing ones, which ultimately bolsters its earnings.

Hillman Solutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hillman Solutions demonstrates moderate financial health with stable revenue growth and improved leverage management. However, declining margins and cash flow challenges indicate areas for operational improvement. The company should focus on enhancing operational efficiency and cash flow management to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

Hillman Solutions shows a stable revenue growth with a TTM increase of 1.58%. The gross profit margin has decreased from 48.07% in 2024 to 23.67% in TTM, indicating a potential rise in cost of goods sold or pricing pressures. The net profit margin improved slightly to 1.44% in TTM, showing better profitability management. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined, suggesting operational efficiency challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company has improved its debt-to-equity ratio to 0.64 in TTM, indicating better leverage management compared to previous years. Return on equity has increased to 1.83%, reflecting improved profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset financing structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has decreased in TTM, with a coverage ratio of 0.61, indicating less cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow has declined by 14.70%, highlighting potential cash flow management issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains healthy at 0.39, showing some resilience in cash flow generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.54B	1.47B	1.48B	1.49B	1.43B	1.37B
Gross Profit	749.31M	707.90M	647.52M	639.78M	566.41M	586.48M
EBITDA	249.21M	215.83M	182.57M	159.90M	139.63M	198.56M
Net Income	37.48M	17.25M	-9.59M	-16.44M	-38.33M	-24.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.40B	2.33B	2.33B	2.47B	2.56B	2.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	37.73M	44.51M	38.55M	31.08M	14.61M	21.52M
Total Debt	784.18M	793.02M	836.06M	968.85M	1.01B	1.63B
Total Liabilities	1.17B	1.15B	1.18B	1.31B	1.41B	2.10B
Stockholders Equity	1.23B	1.18B	1.15B	1.16B	1.15B	364.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	41.07M	98.12M	172.27M	49.42M	-161.81M	46.81M
Operating Cash Flow	117.44M	183.34M	238.03M	119.01M	-110.25M	92.08M
Investing Cash Flow	-76.73M	-143.40M	-67.85M	-72.82M	-90.45M	-46.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-66.51M	-39.27M	-161.98M	-28.72M	193.33M	-45.10M

Hillman Solutions Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.58
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLMN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.19, above the 50-day MA of 8.91, and above the 200-day MA of 8.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLMN.

Hillman Solutions Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RBC	77 Outperform	$15.47B	59.71	8.54%	―	8.27%	19.06%
TKR	76 Outperform	$6.40B	21.74	9.80%	1.61%	-1.01%	-12.13%
TTC	69 Neutral	$8.66B	27.93	21.04%	1.95%	-1.53%	-21.19%
SWK	67 Neutral	$12.98B	28.99	4.92%	4.42%	-1.40%	―
KMT	66 Neutral	$2.55B	27.49	7.36%	2.74%	-2.63%	-4.46%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
HLMN	61 Neutral	$1.89B	50.85	3.11%	―	4.47%	345.07%