Hillman Solutions (HLMN)
NASDAQ:HLMN
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Hillman Solutions
(NASDAQ:HLMN)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▼(-15.45% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/28/26
The score is primarily supported by improving financial performance (turnaround to profitability and consistently positive free cash flow since 2022), but is constrained by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and limited valuation support (negative P/E and no dividend yield provided). The Investor Day targets and reaffirmed guidance add a modest positive offset.
Positive Factors
Sustained positive free cash flow and profitability turnaround
Hillman’s move from losses to positive net income and consistent free cash flow since 2022 reflects durable operating improvements and cash generation capability. Sustained FCF supports reinvestment, working-capital needs, and M&A optionality, improving long-term financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
Thin net margins and volatile earnings history
Despite recent profitability, low-single-digit net margins and historical earnings volatility indicate limited margin durability. Structural cost pressures or price sensitivity in commodity-like hardware categories could compress margins and make sustained profitability more challenging.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained positive free cash flow and profitability turnaround
Hillman’s move from losses to positive net income and consistent free cash flow since 2022 reflects durable operating improvements and cash generation capability. Sustained FCF supports reinvestment, working-capital needs, and M&A optionality, improving long-term financial flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Hillman Solutions Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across Hillman’s operating units and channels, showing where sales and growth are concentrated. Reveals customer or channel concentration, which segments are driving growth, and whether the company’s strategy and acquisitions are shifting revenue toward higher-margin or more stable businesses.
Breaks down revenue across Hillman’s operating units and channels, showing where sales and growth are concentrated. Reveals customer or channel concentration, which segments are driving growth, and whether the company’s strategy and acquisitions are shifting revenue toward higher-margin or more stable businesses.
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The Fly
The FlyHillman Solutions (HLMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.46B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)946.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth5.49%
EPS Growth92.98%
CountryUS
Employees3,886
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryManufacturing - Tools & Accessories
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding196,209,610
10 Day Avg. Volume1,147,365
30 Day Avg. Volume946,936
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.36
Price to Book (P/B)1.46
Price to Sales (P/S)1.16
P/FCF Ratio51.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.00Price Target Upside35.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.66B
Hillman Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in North America. It offers hardware products, including anchor shackles and eye bolts, door hinges and chains, garage d...
How the Company Makes Money
Hillman primarily makes money by selling hardware and related products to retailers (and, in some cases, through programs it manages within retailers’ stores). Its revenue is largely generated from: (1) Product sales across its key categories—fast...
Hillman Solutions Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a balanced but mildly positive outlook. Hillman delivered record net sales and adjusted EBITDA in 2025, with strong HPS performance, a progressing RDS MinuteKey 3.5 rollout, improved leverage, and a 2026 revenue guidance midpoint (+6.3%) and substantial free cash flow rebound targeted. Offsetting these positives are meaningful near-term headwinds: a pronounced tariff-related cash hit (~$65M) that depressed 2025 free cash flow, market volume weakness (~-5%) and housing softness, a planned normalization of margins in 2026 (adjusted gross margin guidance 46%–47% vs 48.7% in 2025), and short-term segment timing and customer-transition effects that pressure early‑2026 results. Management’s tone is confident and constructive, but execution around margin normalization, cash-flow recovery and M&A will determine whether the positive trajectory persists.Positive Updates
Record Net Sales and Adjusted EBITDA
Full-year 2025 net sales increased 5.4% to $1,552,000,000. Adjusted EBITDA rose 13.9% year-over-year to $275,300,000, driving an improved FY adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.7% (from 16.4% in 2024). Q4 adjusted EBITDA increased 2.3% to $57,500,000.
Negative Updates
Tariff Impact Weighed on Cash Flow
Approximately $65M of tariff-related impact reduced operating cash flow in 2025. Operating activities generated $105M in 2025 versus $183M in 2024. Free cash flow fell to $35.1M in 2025 from $98.1M in 2024 (a ~64% decline), driven largely by the tariff cash impact and inventory timing.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Sales and Adjusted EBITDA
Full-year 2025 net sales increased 5.4% to $1,552,000,000. Adjusted EBITDA rose 13.9% year-over-year to $275,300,000, driving an improved FY adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.7% (from 16.4% in 2024). Q4 adjusted EBITDA increased 2.3% to $57,500,000.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Hillman guided 2026 net sales of $1.60B–$1.70B (midpoint $1.65B, +6.3% vs. 2025), adjusted EBITDA of $275M–$285M (midpoint $280M, +1.7% vs. 2025), free cash flow of $100M–$120M (midpoint $110M, representing a >90% conversion of adjusted net income), and adjusted gross margins of ~46%–47%; they expect CapEx of $70M–$75M, to continue opportunistic share repurchases, and to finish the year ~2.1x net debt / trailing-12-month adjusted EBITDA (ex‑M&A). Management said 2026 growth will come from the rollover of 2025 pricing (mid‑single‑digit price contribution) plus new business wins (expected to outpace 2025), that market volumes are assumed flat at the high end of the guide (with downside if volumes step down), and that margins will normalize as tariff costs fully flow through—with Q1 gross margins likely slightly below the 46%–47% range (due to high‑cost inventory), stepping up in Q2 and reaching the high end in the back half.Hillman Solutions Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.56B | 1.55B | 1.47B | 1.48B | 1.49B | 1.43B |
| Gross Profit | 720.50M | 615.25M | 707.90M | 647.52M | 639.78M | 566.41M |
| EBITDA | 251.22M | 258.64M | 215.83M | 182.57M | 159.90M | 139.63M |
| Net Income | 35.89M | 40.30M | 17.25M | -9.59M | -16.44M | -38.33M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.36B | 2.36B | 2.33B | 2.33B | 2.47B | 2.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 27.73M | 27.28M | 44.51M | 38.55M | 31.08M | 14.61M |
| Total Debt | 812.32M | 828.03M | 793.02M | 836.06M | 968.85M | 1.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.15B | 1.13B | 1.15B | 1.18B | 1.31B | 1.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.22B | 1.23B | 1.18B | 1.15B | 1.16B | 1.15B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 91.48M | 35.09M | 98.12M | 172.27M | 49.42M | -161.81M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 211.03M | 105.19M | 183.34M | 238.03M | 119.01M | -110.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -119.98M | -70.35M | -143.40M | -67.85M | -72.82M | -90.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -118.83M | -52.22M | -39.27M | -161.98M | -28.72M | 193.33M |
Hillman Solutions Technical Analysis
Negative
8.87
Price Trends
8.08
Negative
8.66
Negative
8.96
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.26
Negative
43.34
Neutral
61.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLMN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.58, above the 50-day MA of 8.08, and below the 200-day MA of 8.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HLMN.
Hillman Solutions Risk Analysis
Hillman Solutions disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hillman Solutions reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hillman Solutions Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $8.88B | 33.02 | 23.00% | 1.95% | -0.47% | -14.81% | |
74 Outperform | $18.49B | 58.26 | 8.90% | ― | 14.34% | 18.07% | |
71 Outperform | $8.85B | 17.82 | 9.77% | 1.61% | 3.31% | -5.18% | |
64 Neutral | $2.82B | 11.82 | 10.46% | 2.74% | 7.16% | 28.79% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $12.27B | 43.69 | 4.12% | 4.42% | -0.06% | 3.45% | |
53 Neutral | $1.46B | -84.87 | 2.94% | ― | 5.49% | 92.98% |
* Industrials Sector Average
HLMN
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2.46%
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Hillman Solutions Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Hillman Solutions Outlines Long-Term Growth Targets at Investor Day
Positive
Mar 24, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Hillman Solutions hosted its inaugural Investor Day in Cincinnati, using the event to detail a strategic “blueprint” centered on its core fastener and hardware business, expansion into additional categories, and deep...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.