Hillman Solutions (HLMN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.96B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.92M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 90.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: 1.93%
• EPS Growth: 260.13%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,886
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 76
• Industry: Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): 0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 197,639,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,451,340
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,919,557
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.15
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.92
• 1Y Price Target: $12.18
• Price Target Upside: 22.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $10.50 ▲(5.21% Upside)

Hillman Solutions' stock score is primarily driven by positive earnings call sentiment and strong technical indicators. However, the high P/E ratio and cash flow challenges weigh down the score. The company's strategic initiatives and improved financial guidance provide optimism for future performance.

Positive Factors

Demand Recovery

When existing home sales start to recover off 30-year lows, HLMN’s business should see a disproportionate benefit.

Financial Performance

Hillman Solutions Corp. reported strong results with revenue, EBITDA, and EPS exceeding street estimates, driven by recent acquisitions and new business wins.

Market Share

Analyst believes HLMN is a share gainer in the home improvement category, supporting organic revenue and EBITDA growth.

Negative Factors

Demand Weakness

The biggest risk is ahead as higher price might hurt demand and passing on costs dollar for dollar pressures gross margin rate.

Growth Headwinds

Softer volumes from repair or remodel projects remain the most significant headwind on growth.

Market Conditions

Big project activity remains subdued driven by a confluence of factors including higher interest rates and housing turnover.

Hillman Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) is a leading provider in the hardware and home improvement industry. The company specializes in delivering comprehensive solutions to complex challenges in the retail hardware sector. Its core products and services include fasteners, key duplication systems, and other small hardware items, focused on enhancing the customer experience for both DIY consumers and professional contractors. Hillman serves a diverse range of clients, including big-box retailers, home improvement centers, and industrial distributors.

How the Company Makes Money

Hillman Solutions generates revenue through the sale of its extensive range of hardware products and solutions. The company primarily earns money by providing fasteners, key duplication systems, and related hardware items to a variety of retail and industrial customers. Its key revenue streams include product sales to large-scale retailers and home improvement stores, where Hillman's products are often a staple. Additionally, Hillman benefits from strategic partnerships with major retail chains, enhancing its market reach and distribution capabilities. The company's revenue is further bolstered by its commitment to innovation and customer service, ensuring continued demand from its diverse customer base.

Hillman Solutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hillman Solutions demonstrates moderate financial health with stable revenue growth and improved leverage management. However, declining margins and cash flow challenges indicate areas for operational improvement. The company should focus on enhancing operational efficiency and cash flow management to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

Hillman Solutions shows a stable revenue growth with a TTM increase of 1.58%. The gross profit margin has decreased from 48.07% in 2024 to 23.67% in TTM, indicating a potential rise in cost of goods sold or pricing pressures. The net profit margin improved slightly to 1.44% in TTM, showing better profitability management. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined, suggesting operational efficiency challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company has improved its debt-to-equity ratio to 0.64 in TTM, indicating better leverage management compared to previous years. Return on equity has increased to 1.83%, reflecting improved profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset financing structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has decreased in TTM, with a coverage ratio of 0.61, indicating less cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow has declined by 14.70%, highlighting potential cash flow management issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains healthy at 0.39, showing some resilience in cash flow generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.51B	1.47B	1.48B	1.49B	1.43B	1.37B
Gross Profit	684.24M	707.90M	647.52M	639.78M	566.41M	586.48M
EBITDA	197.22M	215.83M	182.57M	159.90M	139.63M	198.56M
Net Income	21.73M	17.25M	-9.59M	-16.44M	-38.33M	-24.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.36B	2.33B	2.33B	2.47B	2.56B	2.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	34.19M	44.51M	38.55M	31.08M	14.61M	21.52M
Total Debt	777.48M	793.02M	836.06M	968.85M	1.01B	1.63B
Total Liabilities	1.15B	1.15B	1.18B	1.31B	1.41B	2.10B
Stockholders Equity	1.21B	1.18B	1.15B	1.16B	1.15B	364.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	65.51M	98.12M	172.27M	49.42M	-161.81M	46.81M
Operating Cash Flow	154.91M	183.34M	238.03M	119.01M	-110.25M	92.08M
Investing Cash Flow	-117.67M	-143.40M	-67.85M	-72.82M	-90.45M	-46.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-60.45M	-39.27M	-161.98M	-28.72M	193.33M	-45.10M

Hillman Solutions Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLMN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.59, above the 50-day MA of 8.36, and above the 200-day MA of 9.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLMN.

Hillman Solutions Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SNA	78 Outperform	$17.20B	17.53	18.18%	2.59%	-0.76%	-2.62%
LECO	78 Outperform	$13.59B	27.65	37.35%	1.20%	0.24%	0.05%
HLMN	71 Outperform	$1.96B	90.69	1.82%	―	1.93%	260.13%
SWK	69 Neutral	$11.64B	24.25	5.38%	4.33%	-2.71%	―
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.95B	16.37	8.81%	1.96%	2.68%	-15.33%
EML	60 Neutral	$144.16M	11.73	7.78%	1.86%	-0.83%	4.51%
KMT	60 Neutral	$1.63B	17.99	7.35%	3.70%	-3.91%	-12.49%

Hillman Solutions Corporate Events

Hillman Solutions Announces $100 Million Share Buyback

On July 31, 2025, Hillman Solutions Corp.’s Board of Directors authorized a $100 million share repurchase program, allowing the company to buy back its common stock at management’s discretion through various methods. This decision follows the company’s strong financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, where net sales increased by 6.2% to $402.8 million, and net income rose to $15.8 million. Hillman also raised its full-year guidance for net sales and adjusted EBITDA, reflecting confidence in its business resilience and growth opportunities.

Hillman Solutions Confirms Director Elections and Approvals

On June 3, 2025, Hillman Solutions held its Annual Meeting via live webcast, where stockholders voted on several key proposals. The election of three directors, Jon Michael Adinolfi, Douglas J. Cahill, and Diane C. Honda, was confirmed for terms expiring in 2026. Additionally, the compensation of named executive officers for fiscal 2024 was approved on an advisory basis. The meeting also saw approval for increases in shares reserved under the 2021 Equity Incentive Plan and the Employee Stock Purchase Plan. Furthermore, Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for fiscal year 2025.