Hillman Solutions (HLMN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.91B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.74M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 88.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: 1.93%
• EPS Growth: 260.13%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,886
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): 0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 197,508,580
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,894,079
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,741,198
• PEG Ratio: -0.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.05
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.41
• 1Y Price Target: $12.13
• Price Target Upside: 25.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $10.50 ▲(8.47% Upside)

Hillman Solutions' overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance and positive corporate events, such as the share buyback program. However, the high P/E ratio and overbought technical indicators suggest caution. The company shows moderate financial health with room for operational improvements.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Shares are up 16% after a beat-and-raise driven by better growth in the HPS segment.

Market Position

HLMN provides unmatched value to customers enabled by its supply chain, brand portfolio, category expertise, and field service/sales force.

Valuation

HLMN shares are trading at a 33% discount compared to peers, creating a compelling entry point for investors.

Negative Factors

Housing Market

Big project activity remains subdued driven by a confluence of factors including higher interest rates and housing turnover.

Pricing Strategy

The biggest risk is ahead as higher price might hurt demand and passing on costs dollar for dollar pressures gross margin rate.

Tariff Impact

Revising guidance to focus on net leverage rather than free cash flow due to tariff uncertainty seemed to unnerve the market.

Hillman Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) is a leading provider in the hardware and home improvement industry. The company specializes in delivering comprehensive solutions to complex challenges in the retail hardware sector. Its core products and services include fasteners, key duplication systems, and other small hardware items, focused on enhancing the customer experience for both DIY consumers and professional contractors. Hillman serves a diverse range of clients, including big-box retailers, home improvement centers, and industrial distributors.

How the Company Makes Money

Hillman Solutions generates revenue through the sale of its extensive range of hardware products and solutions. The company primarily earns money by providing fasteners, key duplication systems, and related hardware items to a variety of retail and industrial customers. Its key revenue streams include product sales to large-scale retailers and home improvement stores, where Hillman's products are often a staple. Additionally, Hillman benefits from strategic partnerships with major retail chains, enhancing its market reach and distribution capabilities. The company's revenue is further bolstered by its commitment to innovation and customer service, ensuring continued demand from its diverse customer base.

Hillman Solutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hillman Solutions maintains a steady financial standing with effective cash management and moderate leverage. The financial statements reflect strong production efficiency but thin profitability margins. Cash flow is robust despite concerns over growth potential, and the balance sheet is solid with a balanced equity structure.

Income Statement

Hillman Solutions shows a moderate income statement performance. The Gross Profit Margin stands at 58.6% TTM, showcasing strong production efficiency. The Net Profit Margin is low at 1.2% TTM, indicating slim profitability. Revenue grew by 0.6% TTM, reflecting stability but limited expansion. The EBIT and EBITDA Margins are moderate, at 6.0% and 12.7% TTM respectively, suggesting reasonable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is in a solid position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.69, indicating manageable leverage. Return on Equity is modest at 1.6% TTM, reflecting limited profitability relative to shareholder equity. The company maintains a strong Equity Ratio of 50.7% TTM, showing a balanced financial structure with significant asset backing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals solid fundamentals. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is negative, but Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is robust at 9.92 TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 4.17 TTM, further supporting effective cash management, despite potential concerns over future growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.51B	1.47B	1.48B	1.49B	1.43B	1.37B
Gross Profit	356.27M	707.90M	647.52M	639.78M	566.41M	586.48M
EBITDA	160.63M	215.83M	182.57M	159.90M	139.63M	198.56M
Net Income	21.73M	17.25M	-9.59M	-16.44M	-38.33M	-24.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.36B	2.33B	2.33B	2.47B	2.56B	2.47B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	34.19M	44.51M	38.55M	31.08M	14.61M	21.52M
Total Debt	777.48M	793.02M	836.06M	968.85M	1.01B	1.63B
Total Liabilities	1.15B	1.15B	1.18B	1.31B	1.41B	2.10B
Stockholders Equity	1.21B	1.18B	1.15B	1.16B	1.15B	364.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	65.51M	98.12M	172.27M	49.42M	-161.81M	46.81M
Operating Cash Flow	166.59M	183.34M	238.03M	119.01M	-110.25M	92.08M
Investing Cash Flow	-117.67M	-143.40M	-67.85M	-72.82M	-90.45M	-46.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-60.45M	-39.27M	-161.98M	-28.72M	193.33M	-45.10M

Hillman Solutions Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.68
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLMN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.02, above the 50-day MA of 7.54, and above the 200-day MA of 9.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.27 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLMN.

Hillman Solutions Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SNA	76 Outperform	$16.80B	17.17	18.18%	2.57%	-0.76%	-2.62%
LECO	74 Outperform	$13.55B	27.62	37.35%	1.21%	0.24%	0.05%
HLMN	71 Outperform	$1.91B	88.32	1.82%	―	1.93%	260.13%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.64B	16.04	5.48%	2.12%	2.74%	-23.62%
SWK	61 Neutral	$10.74B	21.99	5.38%	4.73%	-2.71%	―
KMT	60 Neutral	$1.92B	18.16	7.35%	3.18%	-3.91%	-12.49%
EML	53 Neutral	$138.36M	11.19	7.78%	1.95%	-0.83%	4.51%

Hillman Solutions Corporate Events

Hillman Solutions Announces $100 Million Share Buyback

On July 31, 2025, Hillman Solutions Corp.’s Board of Directors authorized a $100 million share repurchase program, allowing the company to buy back its common stock at management’s discretion through various methods. This decision follows the company’s strong financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, where net sales increased by 6.2% to $402.8 million, and net income rose to $15.8 million. Hillman also raised its full-year guidance for net sales and adjusted EBITDA, reflecting confidence in its business resilience and growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (HLMN) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillman Solutions stock, see the HLMN Stock Forecast page.

Hillman Solutions Confirms Director Elections and Approvals

On June 3, 2025, Hillman Solutions held its Annual Meeting via live webcast, where stockholders voted on several key proposals. The election of three directors, Jon Michael Adinolfi, Douglas J. Cahill, and Diane C. Honda, was confirmed for terms expiring in 2026. Additionally, the compensation of named executive officers for fiscal 2024 was approved on an advisory basis. The meeting also saw approval for increases in shares reserved under the 2021 Equity Incentive Plan and the Employee Stock Purchase Plan. Furthermore, Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for fiscal year 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (HLMN) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hillman Solutions stock, see the HLMN Stock Forecast page.