Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.41B
• Dividend Yield: 4.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.86M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: -1.40%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 48,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): 1.41
• Shares Outstanding: 155,079,470
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,596,915
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,864,877
• PEG Ratio: 0.82
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.28
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.77
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.63
• 1Y Price Target: $89.90
• Price Target Upside: 3.94% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.36
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $15.27B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $91.00 ▲(5.21% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/06/26

SWK scores in the low-60s because the financial recovery is real (improving margins and stronger free cash flow) but still constrained by sustained revenue contraction and thin net margins. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, while valuation is held back by a high P/E despite a solid dividend yield. Earnings-call guidance is constructive on margins and deleveraging, but near-term demand, tariffs, and promotional/volume pressure keep the risk profile elevated.

Positive Factors

Strong brand portfolio and market position

A deep, recognized brand portfolio across professional and consumer channels and a dominant Tools & Storage segment create durable distribution advantages, pricing power, and customer stickiness. This structural positioning supports steady demand, product premiumization, and resilience versus smaller competitors over months to years.

Large, realized cost-savings program

Run-rate cost savings of $2.1B materially lower the company’s structural cost base, supporting sustainable margin expansion. Realized, recurring savings improve operating leverage and raise the break-even for profitability, making future earnings less dependent on short-term volume recoveries.

Improving cash generation and clearer deleveraging path

Sustained positive free cash flow and explicit FCF guidance strengthen financial flexibility to pay down debt, fund strategic investments, maintain the dividend, and execute buybacks. Combined with planned asset-sale proceeds, this durable cash profile underpins ongoing deleveraging and capital allocation optionality.

Negative Factors

Sustained revenue decline and volume weakness

A multi-year revenue contraction erodes operating leverage and market share momentum, constraining the company’s ability to convert margin improvements into lasting profit growth. Persistent top-line weakness increases sensitivity to promotional competition and limits long-term EPS upside if volumes do not stabilize.

Thin net margins despite margin recovery

Even with gross-margin improvements, low net margins leave little cushion against cost shocks, tariffs, or volume declines. This structurally compresses return on capital and limits reinvestment capacity, making sustained earnings growth vulnerable to adverse industry or macro developments.

Tariff exposure, promotional sensitivity and portfolio transitions

Structural headwinds — tariff-driven P&L volatility, greater consumer promo sensitivity, and planned revenue reductions from product-model transitions — create durable top-line and margin variability. Even if margins rise, these factors can materially slow revenue recovery and complicate execution of long-term targets.

Stanley Black & Decker Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. engages in the tools and storage and industrial businesses in the United States, Canada, rest of Americas, France, rest of Europe, and Asia. Its Tools & Storage segment offers professional products, including professional grade corded and cordless electric power tools and equipment, and pneumatic tools and fasteners; and consumer products, such as corded and cordless electric power tools primarily under the BLACK+DECKER brand, as well as corded and cordless lawn and garden products and related accessories; home products; and hand tools, power tool accessories, and storage products. This segment sells its products through retailers, distributors, dealers, and a direct sales force to professional end users, distributors, dealers, retail consumers, and industrial customers in various industries. The company's Industrial segment provides engineered fastening systems and products to customers in the automotive, manufacturing, electronics, construction, aerospace, and other industries; sells and rents custom pipe handling, joint welding, and coating equipment for use in the construction of large and small diameter pipelines, as well as provides pipeline inspection services; and sells hydraulic tools and performance-driven heavy equipment attachment tools. This segment serves oil and natural gas pipeline industry and other industrial customers. It also sells automatic doors to commercial customers. The company was formerly known as The Stanley Works and changed its name to Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. in March 2010. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. was founded in 1843 and is headquartered in New Britain, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

Stanley Black & Decker generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from the sale of its tools and storage products in both consumer and industrial markets. The company operates in three main segments: Tools & Storage, Industrial, and Security. The Tools & Storage segment is the largest, contributing significantly to overall sales through direct sales to retailers, distributors, and online platforms. The Industrial segment focuses on manufacturing and engineering solutions, generating revenue from contracts with large corporations and governments. The Security segment offers commercial electronic security systems and solutions, contributing to recurring revenue through service contracts. Additionally, strategic partnerships with retailers and distributors enhance market reach and brand visibility, further bolstering revenue generation. Factors such as innovation, brand loyalty, and a strong global presence also play crucial roles in driving the company's earnings.

Stanley Black & Decker Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show a turnaround but not a full stabilization: profitability has recovered from 2022–2023 losses and gross margin has rebuilt to ~30% in 2024–2025, while free cash flow rebounded strongly in 2025. Offsetting that, revenue remains in multi-year decline (down ~24% in 2025) and net margin is still thin (~2.7%), leaving limited cushion if demand or costs worsen.

Income Statement

Revenue has been in a multi-year decline (down ~24% in 2025 after modest declines in 2023–2024), which signals demand/portfolio pressure. Profitability has improved meaningfully from losses in 2022–2023 to positive earnings in 2024–2025, and gross margin has recovered to ~30% in 2024–2025 from the mid‑20s range in 2022–2023. However, net margin remains thin (~2.7% in 2025) versus much stronger profitability in 2020–2021, leaving limited cushion if volumes or costs worsen.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate and improving: debt-to-equity moved down from ~0.81 (2023) to ~0.65 (2025), and equity is stable-to-up in 2025. That said, returns on equity are still modest (~4.4% in 2025) compared with pre-downturn levels (double-digit ROE in 2020–2021), indicating the balance sheet is not yet generating strong shareholder returns. Overall asset base is sizable and relatively steady, but the company is still in a profitability rebuild phase.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative bright spot: operating cash flow is positive in 2023–2025 and free cash flow is solidly positive, with a sharp free-cash-flow rebound in 2025 (up ~86% year over year). Free cash flow is reasonably supported by earnings (free cash flow is ~71% of net income in 2025). The main weakness is that operating cash flow covers only a modest portion of total debt (coverage roughly ~0.19 in 2025), which limits flexibility if cash flows soften.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.13B	15.37B	15.78B	16.95B	15.28B
Gross Profit	4.52B	4.60B	4.10B	4.10B	5.08B
EBITDA	1.27B	1.32B	802.70M	942.80M	2.35B
Net Income	401.90M	286.30M	-281.70M	-133.70M	1.69B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	21.24B	21.85B	23.66B	24.96B	28.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	280.10M	290.50M	449.40M	395.60M	142.10M
Total Debt	5.86B	6.59B	7.30B	7.57B	6.71B
Total Liabilities	12.19B	13.13B	14.61B	15.25B	16.59B
Stockholders Equity	9.05B	8.72B	9.06B	9.71B	11.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	687.90M	753.00M	852.60M	-1.99B	144.00M
Operating Cash Flow	971.20M	1.11B	1.19B	-1.46B	663.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-262.80M	394.20M	-327.70M	3.57B	-2.62B
Financing Cash Flow	-793.10M	-1.56B	-816.00M	-1.97B	918.70M

Stanley Black & Decker Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 86.49
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SWK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 86.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 87.47, above the 50-day MA of 82.23, and above the 200-day MA of 72.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SWK.

Stanley Black & Decker Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RBC	79 Outperform	$18.21B	67.73	8.66%	―	8.27%	19.06%
SNA	78 Outperform	$20.00B	20.08	17.96%	2.52%	0.24%	-1.85%
LECO	72 Outperform	$15.73B	30.81	37.22%	1.22%	3.27%	10.89%
TKR	72 Outperform	$7.54B	26.39	9.60%	1.61%	-1.01%	-12.13%
TTC	70 Outperform	$9.67B	31.21	21.04%	1.95%	-1.53%	-21.19%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SWK	62 Neutral	$13.41B	32.68	4.52%	4.42%	-1.40%	―

Stanley Black & Decker Corporate Events

Stanley Black & Decker Announces Key Board Leadership Changes

On January 23 and January 26, 2026, Stanley Black & Decker announced a series of board leadership changes, marking a planned transition back to a non-executive chair structure and reinforcing its governance framework. Independent director Debra Crew has been appointed Lead Independent Director effective immediately, succeeding Andrea Ayers, and has been elected to become non-executive Chair of the Board on October 1, 2026, upon the retirement of Executive Chair and former CEO Donald Allan Jr., in line with the company’s previously stated succession plans. Ayers, who has served more than 11 years on the board and previously led it through a major corporate transformation, will continue as an independent director until her retirement at the annual shareholders’ meeting in April 2026, with the company emphasizing that her decision not to stand for re-election did not stem from any disagreement over operations or policies. The board also elected Shane M. O’Kelly, president and CEO of Advance Auto Parts and a former senior executive at HD Supply, PetroChoice and A.H. Harris & Sons, as a new director effective January 23, 2026, assigning him to the Compensation and Talent Development Committee and the Corporate Governance Committee; his appointment is positioned to bolster the board’s capabilities in supply chain, logistics and growth strategy as the company pursues operational excellence and long-term growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (SWK) stock is a Buy with a $91.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stanley Black & Decker stock, see the SWK Stock Forecast page.

Stanley Black & Decker to Sell CAM to Howmet

On December 22, 2025, Stanley Black & Decker announced a definitive agreement to sell its Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing (CAM) subsidiary, a producer of fasteners, fittings and engineered components for aerospace and defense, to Howmet Aerospace for approximately $1.8 billion in cash, implying a purchase price of $1.805 billion subject to customary adjustments. CAM, expected to generate $405 million to $415 million in revenue in fiscal 2025 with an adjusted EBITDA margin in the high teens, will remain in continuing operations until the transaction closes, which is anticipated in the first half of 2026 pending regulatory approvals and other standard conditions; Stanley Black & Decker plans to apply the proceeds, estimated at $1.525 billion to $1.6 billion after tax, to pay down debt and move toward a target leverage ratio of 2.5 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA, sharpening its focus on core tool and outdoor brands and signaling continued portfolio pruning aimed at shareholder value and a more flexible capital allocation strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (SWK) stock is a Hold with a $75.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stanley Black & Decker stock, see the SWK Stock Forecast page.