Timken (TKR)
NYSE:TKR
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Timken Company
(NYSE:TKR)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$131.00
▲(21.68% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by solid (and improving) balance-sheet fundamentals and a positive earnings-call read-through with raised guidance and stronger cash flow expectations. Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend and positive momentum. Offsetting these positives are margin compression/earnings quality concerns in recent financial statements and only moderate valuation support given the modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improving balance sheet leverage
Timken's materially lower leverage and equity growth provide durable financial flexibility. Mid-0.6x debt-to-equity supports continued share repurchases, M&A funding (e.g., Bijur Delimon), and resilience through industrial cycles, reducing refinancing risk and enabling investment in higher-return growth initiatives.
Negative Factors
Engineered Bearings margin pressure
Margins in Timken's core Engineered Bearings business have compressed due to higher operating and manufacturing costs. Given this segment's scale, sustained margin erosion would materially weaken consolidated profitability and cash generation unless volume, pricing, or cost productivity recoveries offset inflationary pressures.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving balance sheet leverage
Timken's materially lower leverage and equity growth provide durable financial flexibility. Mid-0.6x debt-to-equity supports continued share repurchases, M&A funding (e.g., Bijur Delimon), and resilience through industrial cycles, reducing refinancing risk and enabling investment in higher-return growth initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Timken Company (TKR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.83B
Dividend Yield1.61%
Average Volume (3M)847.01K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.8
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth3.31%
EPS Growth-5.18%
CountryUS
Employees19,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryManufacturing - Tools & Accessories
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.42
Shares Outstanding69,494,510
10 Day Avg. Volume1,140,511
30 Day Avg. Volume847,006
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.15
Price to Book (P/B)1.84
Price to Sales (P/S)1.28
P/FCF Ratio14.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$131.00Price Target Upside21.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)6.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.82B
Timken Company Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Timken Company designs, manufactures, and manages engineered bearings and power transmission products worldwide. It operates in two segments, Mobile Industries and Process Industries. The Mobile Industries segment offers a portfolio of bearing...
How the Company Makes Money
Timken makes money primarily by selling engineered components and systems to industrial and mobility original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and to aftermarket customers that replace parts during maintenance and repair. Its core revenue stream is ...
Timken Company Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear momentum: record Industrial Motion performance, expanded margins, raised full-year guidance, active portfolio actions (Bijur Delimon acquisition and Belts divestiture), and disciplined capital allocation. Offsetting risks include margin pressure in Engineered Bearings, regional softness in China and certain end markets, tariff and inflation uncertainty, and near-term sequential EPS headwinds. On balance, the positive operational and financial developments and the upgrade to guidance outweigh the highlighted headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $1.23B, up 8% year-over-year; organic revenue up 4.3% driven by pricing and Industrial Motion volume growth.
Negative Updates
Engineered Bearings Margin Pressure
Engineered Bearings adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 19.7% from 20.9% a year ago, negatively impacted by higher operating costs and manufacturing cost inflation.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $1.23B, up 8% year-over-year; organic revenue up 4.3% driven by pricing and Industrial Motion volume growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company raised its 2026 outlook to total net sales growth of 4%–6% (was 2%–4%), with organic revenue now expected to be ~3% at the midpoint (up 1 point), plus ~1% from M&A (Bijur Delimon) and ~1% from currency; adjusted EPS is guided to $5.75–$6.25 (up $0.25 at the midpoint versus prior guidance), which the company says implies ~13% adjusted EPS growth at the midpoint (vs. ~8% prior), consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin of ~18% at the midpoint (up from 17.4% in 2025) with an implied incremental margin of ~30% for the year, free cash flow of $350–$375 million (~105% conversion at the midpoint), year‑over‑year earnings growth expected each quarter, Q2 expected to be higher versus last year on organic revenue, margins and EPS but modestly lower sequentially versus Q1 (Q1 adj. EPS was $1.67 and adj. EBITDA margin was 18.8%), and the $0.25 midpoint EPS increase reflects a $0.20 benefit from organic sales, a $0.15 tariff tailwind and a $0.10 headwind for potential cost inflation.Timken Company Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.67B | 4.58B | 4.57B | 4.77B | 4.50B | 4.13B |
| Gross Profit | 1.33B | 1.31B | 1.45B | 1.52B | 1.34B | 1.16B |
| EBITDA | 769.30M | 746.10M | 834.30M | 915.10M | 838.20M | 713.80M |
| Net Income | 308.30M | 288.40M | 352.70M | 394.10M | 407.40M | 369.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.88B | 6.68B | 6.41B | 6.54B | 5.77B | 5.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 363.60M | 386.50M | 389.50M | 450.90M | 379.90M | 314.80M |
| Total Debt | 2.20B | 2.16B | 2.26B | 2.58B | 2.12B | 1.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.51B | 3.33B | 3.43B | 3.84B | 3.42B | 2.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.21B | 3.18B | 2.83B | 2.58B | 2.27B | 2.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 383.20M | 406.10M | 305.70M | 357.40M | 285.40M | 239.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 535.00M | 554.30M | 475.70M | 545.20M | 463.80M | 387.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -272.80M | -148.30M | -304.60M | -806.50M | -573.30M | -173.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -304.40M | -437.10M | -194.80M | 347.10M | 206.80M | -269.30M |
Timken Company Technical Analysis
Neutral
107.66
Price Trends
105.80
Positive
101.83
Positive
89.66
Positive
Market Momentum
2.29
Positive
47.31
Neutral
21.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 107.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 111.95, above the 50-day MA of 105.80, and above the 200-day MA of 89.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TKR.
Timken Company Risk Analysis
Timken Company disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Timken Company reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Timken Company Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $18.83B | 19.20 | 17.48% | 2.52% | 2.99% | 1.23% | |
74 Outperform | $17.43B | 45.76 | 8.90% | ― | 14.34% | 18.07% | |
72 Outperform | $7.83B | 17.82 | 9.77% | 1.61% | 3.31% | -5.18% | |
70 Outperform | $14.29B | 25.03 | 37.29% | 1.22% | 7.72% | 19.51% | |
65 Neutral | $2.66B | 11.82 | 10.46% | 2.74% | 7.16% | 28.79% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $11.73B | 43.69 | 4.12% | 4.42% | -0.06% | 3.45% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TKR
Timken Company
109.36
40.68
59.22%
KMT
Kennametal
34.58
13.93
67.49%
LECO
Lincoln Electric Holdings
253.82
62.02
32.33%
RBC
RBC Bearings
565.22
198.42
54.09%
SNA
Snap-on
359.95
44.33
14.05%
SWK
Stanley Black & Decker
73.88
10.44
16.46%
Timken Company Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Timken Grants EVP Incentive Awards, Shareholders Back Board
Positive
May 8, 2026
On May 8, 2026, Timken entered into a letter agreement with Executive Vice President and General Counsel Hansal N. Patel, granting him special treatment of certain existing and future short- and long-term incentive awards in recognition of his con...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Timken Announces Leadership Transition in Engineered Bearings Segment
Neutral
Apr 21, 2026
On April 16, 2026, Andreas Roellgen ceased serving as Executive Vice President and President of Engineered Bearings at The Timken Company, with his departure governed by European local legal requirements and processes. The company expressed apprec...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Timken Announces New Multi-Year Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 13, 2026, Timken’s board approved a new share purchase plan effective March 1, 2026, authorizing the company to buy back up to 10 million of its outstanding common shares through open market purchases, privately negotiated transa...
Executive/Board Changes
Timken Announces Planned Audit Committee Leadership Transition
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
On February 13, 2026, Timken announced that James F. Palmer, chair of the Audit Committee and a member of the Compensation Committee, will retire from the board effective March 31, 2026, as part of a planned transition of the Audit Committee chair...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.