Timken Company (TKR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.38B
• Dividend Yield: 1.8%
• Average Volume (3M): 720.98K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: -2.01%
• EPS Growth: -9.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 19,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 80
• Industry: Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
• EPS (TTM): 1.42
• Shares Outstanding: 69,643,005
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 633,125
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 720,981
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.58
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.91
• 1Y Price Target: $85.43
• Price Target Upside: 11.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $85.00 ▲(11.13% Upside)

Timken's overall stock score reflects a solid financial foundation and efficient cash flow generation, but is tempered by technical indicators showing a neutral trend and mixed earnings call sentiment. The valuation is reasonable, but not particularly attractive, and the company faces challenges in revenue growth and trade uncertainties.

Positive Factors

Cost management

TKR will continue to execute on their cost programs, which should provide some earnings tailwind.

Growth opportunities

The company is well-positioned in secular growth areas such as automation and robotics, providing incremental upside to earnings.

Portfolio transformation

The company's portfolio transformation over the last decade suggests an even bigger mismatch between the stock's current valuation and the business' intrinsic value.

Negative Factors

CEO transition

The abrupt change in CEO and the return of Rich Kyle is a temporary solution, likely limiting the potential for meaningful strategic news.

Market sentiment

Sentiment has deteriorated as PMIs have turned negative, raw materials prices are up, and OEMs have turned more cautious on expectations that tariffs will hurt demand growth.

Tariff impact

Tariffs pose a risk to margin performance for Timken given their contract-based exposure to OEMs.

Timken Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Timken Company (TKR) is a global leader in engineered bearings and mechanical power transmission products. Founded in 1899 and headquartered in North Canton, Ohio, Timken operates in various sectors, including industrial and aerospace markets. The company specializes in designing and manufacturing a wide range of products, including tapered roller bearings, ball bearings, and other related components, as well as lubrication systems and power transmission solutions. Timken serves diverse industries such as automotive, aerospace, agriculture, and energy, providing innovative solutions that enhance efficiency and performance.

How the Company Makes Money

Timken Company generates revenue primarily through the sale of its engineered bearings and related products. The company's revenue model is built on multiple key streams, including the sale of bearings for various applications, power transmission products, and aftermarket services. Timken's extensive distribution network and strong brand reputation allow it to secure contracts with large industrial clients, contributing significantly to its earnings. Additionally, the company invests in research and development to innovate and improve existing products, which helps maintain its competitive edge. Strategic partnerships with other manufacturers and suppliers also play a critical role in expanding its market reach and enhancing product offerings, further driving revenue growth.

Timken Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Timken Company maintains a solid financial position with strong profitability margins and efficient cash flow generation. Despite challenges in revenue growth, the company shows resilience with strong cost management and a balanced financial structure.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a steady performance with a stable gross profit margin of approximately 14.8% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Net profit margin for TTM is 7.3%, slightly below the previous year's 7.7%, indicating solid profitability. Revenue growth has been negative in recent periods, with a -5.5% drop from 2023 to TTM, suggesting challenges in growing top-line sales. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 12.2% and 13.2% respectively, reflecting efficient cost management.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet presents a solid financial structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70 in TTM, indicating modest leverage, although slightly higher than the industry average. The equity ratio stands at 48.0%, suggesting a good balance of equity financing. Return on Equity (ROE) is 10.1%, reflecting decent returns for shareholders, though a decline from previous years, highlighting a need to enhance profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals strong free cash flow generation, with a 3.0% growth in free cash flow from 2024 to TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.43, indicating strong cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.95, showcasing efficient free cash flow generation, which supports financial flexibility and potential for reinvestment.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.51B	4.57B	4.77B	4.50B	4.13B	3.51B
Gross Profit	1.37B	1.44B	1.52B	1.29B	1.10B	1.01B
EBITDA	721.00M	841.10M	842.50M	822.60M	703.20M	631.00M
Net Income	309.80M	352.70M	394.10M	407.40M	369.10M	284.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.81B	6.41B	6.54B	5.77B	5.17B	5.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	419.30M	389.10M	450.50M	370.80M	314.00M	357.90M
Total Debt	2.28B	2.18B	2.50B	2.05B	1.57B	1.67B
Total Liabilities	3.54B	3.43B	3.84B	3.42B	2.79B	2.82B
Stockholders Equity	3.27B	2.83B	2.58B	2.27B	2.29B	2.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	314.80M	305.70M	357.40M	285.40M	239.00M	456.00M
Operating Cash Flow	471.70M	475.70M	545.20M	463.80M	387.30M	577.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-306.80M	-304.60M	-806.50M	-573.30M	-173.80M	-153.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-227.70M	-194.80M	347.10M	206.80M	-269.30M	-331.10M

Timken Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 76.49
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 76.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.52, below the 50-day MA of 76.50, and above the 200-day MA of 73.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TKR.

Timken Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SNA	78 Outperform	$16.97B	17.24	18.18%	2.65%	-0.76%	-2.62%
LECO	78 Outperform	$13.39B	27.21	37.35%	1.22%	0.24%	0.05%
RBC	75 Outperform	$12.31B	49.04	8.56%	―	5.48%	16.88%
TKR	73 Outperform	$5.38B	17.57	10.52%	1.80%	-2.01%	-9.95%
SWK	69 Neutral	$11.50B	23.56	5.38%	4.59%	-2.71%	―
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.74B	15.62	8.14%	2.00%	2.79%	-14.82%
KMT	63 Neutral	$1.63B	17.93	7.35%	3.73%	-3.91%	-12.49%

Timken Company Corporate Events

Timken Company Appoints New CEO Lucian Boldea

On August 22, 2025, The Timken Company announced that Lucian Boldea will become its new President and CEO effective September 1, 2025, succeeding Richard G. Kyle. Boldea, with extensive leadership experience at Honeywell and Eastman Chemical Company, will guide Timken through a transition period ending November 14, 2025, with Kyle continuing as an advisor. Boldea’s compensation package includes a base salary, short-term and long-term incentives, and a severance agreement, reflecting the company’s commitment to securing experienced leadership to enhance its market position.

Timken Appoints New CFO Michael A. Discenza

On August 14, 2025, Timken Company announced the appointment of Michael A. Discenza as Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Philip D. Fracassa. Discenza, with over 25 years of experience at Timken, will receive a comprehensive compensation package, including a base salary, short-term incentives, and long-term equity incentives, reflecting the company’s commitment to leadership stability and strategic growth.