Herbalife (HLF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.01B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.98M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: -2.25%
• EPS Growth: 288.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8,600
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 49
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.59
• Shares Outstanding: 103,105,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,654,428
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,979,702
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.70
• 1Y Price Target: $10.33
• Price Target Upside: 5.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(2.25% Upside)

Herbalife's overall stock score is driven by its undervalued valuation and strategic advancements highlighted in the earnings call. However, financial challenges, including declining revenues and high leverage, weigh heavily on the score. Technical indicators suggest a neutral market sentiment.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Expected share price return is 62.7%.

Leadership

New CEO Stephan Gratziani has a long-term vision and connects with top distributors, contributing positively to the company's future.

Negative Factors

Regional Performance

Total HLF new distributor growth remained solid at +16% Y/Y, but notably the N. America trend inflected negative compounding questions about the timeline for a US sales inflection.

Web Traffic

In the U.S., there has been a sharp reversal in the trend of average unique visitors and total web visits to myherbalife.com, which is now declining year over year.

Herbalife Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. offers nutrition solutions in North America, Mexico, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, China, and rest of Asia Pacific. The company provides products in the areas of weight management; targeted nutrition; energy, sports, and fitness; and outer nutrition. It offers weight management products, including meal replacement products, protein shakes, drink mixes, weight loss enhancers, and healthy snacks; targeted nutrition products, which comprise functional beverages, and dietary and nutritional supplements that contain herbs, vitamins, minerals, and other natural ingredients; outer nutrition products, such as facial skin, body, and hair care products; and energy, sports, and fitness products, including N-R-G tea and energy drink products. The company also provides literature, promotional, and other materials that comprise start-up kits, sales tools, and educational materials. It offers its products through independent service providers and sales representatives, as well as through company-operated retail platforms. The company was formerly known as Herbalife Ltd. and changed its name to Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. in April 2018. Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Herbalife generates revenue primarily through the sale of its products, which are distributed by independent distributors who earn commissions based on their sales and the sales of their recruits. This MLM structure creates multiple revenue streams: direct sales to consumers, commissions from distributor sales, and bonuses for distributors based on their sales performance and team sales. Additionally, Herbalife benefits from retail sales through its branded stores and online platforms. The company's earnings are also influenced by promotional partnerships and sponsorships within the fitness and wellness industries, reinforcing its brand presence and driving product demand.

Herbalife Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Herbalife's financial performance is mixed. Strong gross profit margins indicate efficient cost management, but declining revenue and net profit margins highlight challenges in sustaining growth. The balance sheet shows significant financial leverage and negative equity, posing risks to financial stability. Cash flow generation is stable, but high financing outflows suggest potential liquidity pressures.

Income Statement

Herbalife's income statement shows a declining trend in total revenue over the past few years, with a recent TTM total revenue of $4.95 billion, down from $5.20 billion in 2022. The gross profit margin remains strong at approximately 77.39% for the TTM period, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 5.66% from higher levels in previous years, highlighting challenges in maintaining profitability. The EBIT margin for TTM stands at 9.08%, and EBITDA margin at 10.64%, both reflecting a stable yet pressured operating environment.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant financial leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity of -$736 million as of TTM, indicating high debt levels relative to assets. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, raising concerns about financial stability. The equity ratio is also negative, further emphasizing the risk associated with high indebtedness. Despite these challenges, total assets remain substantial at $2.68 billion.

Cash Flow

Herbalife's cash flow statement shows a modest free cash flow growth, with TTM free cash flow of $164.4 million, slightly higher than the previous year's $163.4 million. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.97, indicating efficient cash conversion from net income. However, the high levels of financing cash outflows raise concerns about reliance on debt to fund operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.93B	4.99B	5.06B	5.20B	5.80B	5.54B
Gross Profit	3.85B	3.89B	3.87B	4.03B	4.56B	4.39B
EBITDA	620.10M	509.10M	482.20M	672.70M	854.60M	740.90M
Net Income	325.00M	254.30M	142.20M	321.30M	447.20M	372.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.74B	2.73B	2.81B	2.73B	2.82B	3.08B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	320.90M	415.30M	575.20M	508.00M	601.50M	1.05B
Total Debt	2.35B	2.47B	2.77B	2.88B	2.96B	2.64B
Total Liabilities	3.39B	3.53B	3.87B	4.00B	4.21B	3.93B
Stockholders Equity	-660.50M	-801.10M	-1.06B	-1.27B	-1.39B	-856.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	171.40M	163.40M	222.50M	196.10M	308.90M	516.60M
Operating Cash Flow	265.30M	285.40M	357.50M	352.50M	460.30M	628.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-85.00M	-84.60M	-134.80M	-156.20M	-156.40M	-123.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-227.50M	-335.30M	-148.30M	-264.70M	-728.60M	-320.90M

Herbalife Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.78
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.34, above the 50-day MA of 9.34, and above the 200-day MA of 7.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLF.

Herbalife Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NATR	80 Outperform	$297.16M	22.59	9.15%	―	4.33%	-6.33%
SMPL	71 Outperform	$2.88B	20.02	8.22%	―	14.22%	-1.81%
USNA	70 Outperform	$583.05M	17.70	6.54%	―	2.75%	-37.25%
CENT	69 Neutral	$2.11B	16.60	8.70%	―	-4.90%	0.29%
JJSF	68 Neutral	$2.17B	26.00	8.79%	2.80%	0.50%	-4.46%
HLF	63 Neutral	$1.01B	3.08	-31.74%	―	-2.25%	288.79%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.44B	14.73	-2.94%	3.07%	2.04%	-6.12%

Herbalife Corporate Events

Herbalife Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results and Innovations

Herbalife reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with net sales of $1.3 billion, slightly down by 1.7% compared to the previous year, impacted by foreign currency headwinds. The company exceeded its adjusted EBITDA guidance and raised its full-year net sales and adjusted EBITDA outlook. Recent developments include the launch of MultiBurn, a new weight-loss supplement, and the unveiling of the beta version of the Pro2col app, indicating a focus on innovation and expanding product offerings. These initiatives, along with strong distributor engagement programs, are expected to drive future growth and enhance Herbalife’s market position.

Herbalife Announces Redemption of Senior Notes

On June 10, 2025, Herbalife Ltd. and its subsidiary issued a notice to redeem $50 million of their 7.875% Senior Notes due 2025. The redemption is scheduled for June 30, 2025, at a price of $1,000 per $1,000 principal amount, impacting the company’s financial obligations and potentially its market positioning.