Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEY)
OTHER OTC:GLPEY
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Galp Energia SGPS SA
(OTC:GLPEY)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
▲(25.75% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/28/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed fundamentals: solid profitability and a manageable balance sheet are outweighed by a sharp 2025 cash-flow deterioration. Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend, while valuation is a headwind due to a high P/E for the sector despite a ~3.2% yield. The earnings call adds support via concrete 2026 growth and capital-return plans, tempered by macro and execution/regulatory uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Upstream production growth (Bacalhau ramp-up)
Bacalhau first oil and ~111 kbpd Brazil production materially bolster upstream cash flows and lower unit costs. A targeted ≥15% production increase for 2026 supports a durable uplift to EBITDA and operating cash, enhancing the company's ability to fund capex and shareholder returns over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Sharp 2025 cash-flow deterioration
A ~58% drop in FCF to ~€0.3bn and materially weaker OCF in 2025 indicates deteriorated cash conversion and/or higher working capital/capex needs. Lower cash generation constrains deleveraging pace, reduces buffer for sustained buybacks/dividends, and limits funding optionality for low‑carbon investments or opportunistic M&A in adverse commodity scenarios.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Upstream production growth (Bacalhau ramp-up)
Bacalhau first oil and ~111 kbpd Brazil production materially bolster upstream cash flows and lower unit costs. A targeted ≥15% production increase for 2026 supports a durable uplift to EBITDA and operating cash, enhancing the company's ability to fund capex and shareholder returns over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.24B
Dividend Yield4.42%
Average Volume (3M)2.12K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.6
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth-5.97%
EPS Growth-23.18%
CountryUS
Employees6,881
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.14
Shares Outstanding1,357,886,700
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume2,120
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.67
Price to Book (P/B)4.78
Price to Sales (P/S)1.13
P/FCF Ratio67.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.79
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Galp Energia SGPS SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. operates as an integrated energy operator in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Upstream, Industrial & Energy Management, Commercial, and Renewables and New Business. The Upstream seg...
How the Company Makes Money
Galp makes money primarily through a mix of upstream, industrial, and commercial energy activities. (1) Upstream (exploration & production): Galp earns revenue from selling its share of produced crude oil and natural gas from operated and non-oper...
Galp Energia SGPS SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced strong operational execution and disciplined financial management (Bacalhau first oil, +EUR 2.2bn OCF YoY, clear 2026 growth guidance, maintained dividend and EUR 250m buyback, CapEx discipline and upstream growth pipeline) against several sources of uncertainty (geopolitical volatility, cautious macro assumptions, ongoing regulatory and tax disputes, early-stage appraisal work in Namibia and exploration risk). Positives are substantial and concrete (actual production and cash flow improvements, committed projects and shareholder returns), while lowlights are largely uncertainties and execution/approval risks rather than immediate financial deterioration.Positive Updates
Strong Brazil Production and Bacalhau First Oil
Average Brazil production reached ~111,000 barrels per day in 2025 (above 2024 levels). Bacalhau achieved first oil and is showing high productivities as it ramps up.
Negative Updates
Elevated Geopolitical Risk and Market Volatility
Escalation of the Middle East conflict increases geopolitical risk, uncertainty and volatility in global energy markets; Galp is rerouting shipments but limited visibility prompted management to limit guidance to 2026 only.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Brazil Production and Bacalhau First Oil
Average Brazil production reached ~111,000 barrels per day in 2025 (above 2024 levels). Bacalhau achieved first oil and is showing high productivities as it ramps up.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Galp limited guidance to 2026 given macro uncertainty and expects production to rise by at least 15% to 125–130 kbbl/d (from ~111 kbbl/d in 2025) driven by Bacalhau ramp‑up; target EBITDA above EUR 2.6bn (with industrial + midstream EBITDA > EUR 700m and commercial EBITDA > EUR 350m) and operational cash flow (OCF) over EUR 2.0bn under a downside macro deck (assumes Brent $60 and USD/EUR 1.18; using 2025 macro OCF would exceed EUR 2.6bn); organic CapEx ~EUR 1.0bn (upstream >40% of organic CapEx, Bacalhau CapEx declining; includes Namibia: one well in 2026 and possible Venus FID around mid‑year), plus ~EUR 0.5bn headroom for inorganics, and a €250m share buyback plus a proposed EUR 0.64 DPS to be submitted to the AGM—they also plan Sines low‑carbon commissioning by year‑end (100 MW green hydrogen, HVO ~60–65% of its CapEx already committed; ~35% of group CapEx into low‑carbon projects), expect upstream breakevens around $20/bbl, LNG Venture deliveries ~15 cargoes in 2026 with narrower gas spreads, and a medium/long‑term refining margin assumption of $5–6/bbl (short‑term quarter‑to‑date margins currently in the double digits).Galp Energia SGPS SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 18.74B | 21.31B | 20.77B | 26.84B | 16.11B |
| Gross Profit | 1.82B | 2.73B | 3.98B | 2.67B | 1.83B |
| EBITDA | 2.75B | 3.50B | 3.75B | 4.54B | 1.81B |
| Net Income | 1.08B | 1.04B | 1.24B | 1.48B | 191.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.32B | 16.82B | 16.61B | 16.10B | 14.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.87B | 2.44B | 2.37B | 2.74B | 2.93B |
| Total Debt | 4.90B | 4.91B | 5.41B | 5.26B | 5.48B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.15B | 11.18B | 11.28B | 10.98B | 10.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.42B | 4.69B | 4.41B | 4.16B | 3.05B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 315.05M | 1.15B | 1.57B | 1.99B | 273.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.32B | 2.53B | 2.63B | 3.07B | 1.05B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -118.15M | -1.05B | -1.02B | -1.27B | -460.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -996.07M | -1.35B | -1.91B | -1.26B | -530.00M |
Galp Energia SGPS SA Technical Analysis
Neutral
9.94
Price Trends
11.23
Positive
10.25
Positive
9.90
Positive
Market Momentum
0.19
Positive
48.56
Neutral
33.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLPEY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.04, below the 50-day MA of 11.23, and above the 200-day MA of 9.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GLPEY.
Galp Energia SGPS SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $132.22B | 3.80 | 27.02% | 14.10% | -11.63% | -15.67% | |
67 Neutral | $28.78B | 12.89 | 11.20% | 18.88% | -7.45% | -28.80% | |
66 Neutral | $100.89B | 12.11 | 3.44% | 7.43% | 1.53% | -35.81% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $17.24B | 19.63 | 25.03% | 4.42% | -5.97% | -23.18% | |
62 Neutral | $82.15B | 19.50 | 5.20% | 5.41% | -3.84% | 15.75% | |
57 Neutral | $18.04B | -17.16 | -2.22% | ― | -2.76% | 56.81% |
* Energy Sector Average
GLPEY
Galp Energia SGPS SA
11.33
4.24
59.76%
EC
Ecopetrol SA
14.10
5.71
68.02%
E
Eni SPA
56.43
30.92
121.22%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
21.51
10.93
103.35%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
38.96
16.54
73.73%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
42.95
9.82
29.64%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.