Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEY)
OTHER OTC:GLPEY
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Galp Energia SGPS SA
(OTC:GLPEY)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
▲(25.75% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but cyclical financials: strong TTM revenue and free-cash-flow improvement offset by margin compression and meaningful leverage. Technicals are mildly supportive with price above key moving averages, though momentum is not decisively positive. Valuation is only fair for a cyclical business, while the earnings call was modestly positive on delivery, hedging and midstream visibility but tempered by volatility, refining pressure and project execution risks.
Positive Factors
Improved free cash flow generation
TTM free cash flow of about €1.05B shows the business is converting earnings into cash at scale. Durable FCF supports debt servicing, recurring capital needs (including renewables and Bacalhau ramp-up), and a predictable distribution policy, reducing financing risk over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage (debt roughly in line with equity)
Debt roughly equal to equity (D/E ~1.05x) leaves less balance-sheet cushion if commodity prices or margins deteriorate. Sustained deleveraging depends on continued FCF; absent that, leverage could constrain capital allocation and increase refinancing or rating risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved free cash flow generation
TTM free cash flow of about €1.05B shows the business is converting earnings into cash at scale. Durable FCF supports debt servicing, recurring capital needs (including renewables and Bacalhau ramp-up), and a predictable distribution policy, reducing financing risk over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$17.25B
Dividend Yield4.42%
Average Volume (3M)2.12K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth1.14%
EPS Growth-30.80%
CountryUS
Employees6,881
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding1,357,886,700
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume2,120
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.67
Price to Book (P/B)4.78
Price to Sales (P/S)1.13
P/FCF Ratio67.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.39
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.04
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Galp Energia SGPS SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. operates as an integrated energy operator in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Upstream, Industrial & Energy Management, Commercial, and Renewables and New Business. The Upstream seg...
How the Company Makes Money
Galp makes money primarily through a mix of upstream, industrial, and commercial energy activities. (1) Upstream (exploration & production): Galp earns revenue from selling its share of produced crude oil and natural gas from operated and non-oper...
Galp Energia SGPS SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 27, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly constructive operational and financial picture: production delivered at the top end of guidance, balance sheet remained stable despite a material working capital build, Midstream and hedging positions provide visible cash-flow support for 2026, and strategic moves (Moeve, renewables, Namibia progress) offer medium-term upside. These positives are tempered by notable macro volatility, a short-term squeeze on refining margins (especially in Europe), a realized equity-crude discount (~$5/bbl), and remaining execution/timing uncertainties around Bacalhau ramp-up and Namibian developments. On balance, the company's delivery, financial resilience and clear sensitivities outweigh the current headwinds.Positive Updates
Upstream production at top end of guidance
Delivered at the very top end of 2026 guidance (125,000–130,000 bbl/d), with Brazil performing strongly and Bacalhau contributing to the outturn; Bacalhau ramp-up ongoing with plateau expected later in 2026.
Negative Updates
Market volatility and geopolitical risk
Higher volatility and geopolitical tensions (Middle East) created supply disruptions and pricing uncertainty; management declined to update full-year guidance because of 'high volatility' and many moving parts.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Upstream production at top end of guidance
Delivered at the very top end of 2026 guidance (125,000–130,000 bbl/d), with Brazil performing strongly and Bacalhau contributing to the outturn; Bacalhau ramp-up ongoing with plateau expected later in 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Galp kept a deliberately cautious stance on formal 2026 guidance given high market volatility and said it will consider updates at Q2, while disclosing many quantitative sensitivities and metrics: Upstream production guidance of 125,000–130,000 bbl/d (Q1 delivered at the top end; Bacalhau contributed ~10,000 bbl/d and is expected to plateau later in 2026 with ~€400m OCF at plateau; DD&A “low‑2 digits” and operating costs moving from upper‑2s/lower‑3s to ~3–4 at Bacalhau plateau), equity crude realizations ~$5/bbl discount (≈70% of exports to China), Refining margins averaging ~$10–$12/bbl since March (spiking into the $20s on some days), Refining hedges covering ~1/3 of throughput (~28m barrels locked at ≈$8/bbl for 2026, no material 2027 hedges), Midstream guidance >€500m for 2026 with trading gas accounting for ~70% of performance and ~70–75% of LNG venture volumes hedged for 2026, financial sensitivities of ≈$160m per $5/bbl Brent and ≈$200m per $5/bbl refining margin, a 1/3‑of‑OCF distribution policy, net debt held flat q/q despite ~€200m working‑capital build in Q1, renewables now ~25% wind in the generation mix, and Commercial non‑fuel making ~22% of that segment.Galp Energia SGPS SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.68B | 18.74B | 21.31B | 20.77B | 26.84B | 16.11B |
| Gross Profit | 2.36B | 1.82B | 2.73B | 3.98B | 2.67B | 1.83B |
| EBITDA | 2.48B | 2.75B | 3.50B | 3.75B | 4.54B | 1.81B |
| Net Income | 644.71M | 1.08B | 1.04B | 1.24B | 1.48B | 191.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.76B | 15.32B | 16.82B | 16.61B | 16.10B | 14.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.45B | 2.87B | 2.44B | 2.37B | 2.74B | 2.93B |
| Total Debt | 4.36B | 4.90B | 4.91B | 5.41B | 5.26B | 5.48B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.77B | 10.15B | 11.18B | 11.28B | 10.98B | 10.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.16B | 4.42B | 4.69B | 4.41B | 4.16B | 3.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.05B | 315.05M | 1.15B | 1.57B | 1.99B | 273.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.03B | 1.32B | 2.53B | 2.63B | 3.07B | 1.05B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -930.45M | -118.15M | -1.05B | -1.02B | -1.27B | -460.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.56B | -996.07M | -1.35B | -1.91B | -1.26B | -530.00M |
Galp Energia SGPS SA Technical Analysis
Neutral
9.94
Price Trends
11.40
Negative
10.30
Positive
9.97
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
37.42
Neutral
7.03
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLPEY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.81, below the 50-day MA of 11.40, and below the 200-day MA of 9.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GLPEY.
Galp Energia SGPS SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $133.79B | 3.80 | 27.02% | 14.10% | -2.43% | 171.38% | |
67 Neutral | $29.18B | 12.89 | 11.20% | 18.88% | -7.38% | -39.57% | |
66 Neutral | $101.37B | 12.11 | 3.44% | 7.43% | 3.95% | -38.27% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $82.31B | 16.84 | 5.20% | 5.41% | -3.06% | 9.20% | |
62 Neutral | $17.25B | -69.90 | 25.03% | 4.42% | 1.14% | -30.80% | |
57 Neutral | $19.10B | -17.16 | -2.22% | ― | -4.12% | -132.96% |
* Energy Sector Average
GLPEY
Galp Energia SGPS SA
11.74
4.11
53.92%
EC
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13.92
6.16
79.29%
E
Eni SPA
56.16
28.61
103.88%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
21.90
11.17
104.16%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
39.71
17.46
78.45%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
43.38
14.29
49.12%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.