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Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEY)
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Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEY) AI Stock Analysis

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GLPEY

Galp Energia SGPS SA

(OTC:GLPEY)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(2.46% Upside)
Galp Energia's overall stock score is driven by a positive earnings call with upgraded guidance and strong operational performance. However, declining revenue and technical indicators suggest caution. The valuation is reasonable, providing some support to the stock's appeal.

Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Galp Energia SGPS SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGalp Energia, SGPS, S.A. operates as an integrated energy operator in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Upstream, Industrial & Energy Management, Commercial, and Renewables and New Business. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of hydrocarbons primarily in Brazil, Mozambique, and Angola. The Industrial & Energy Management segment owns refineries in Portugal, as well as is involved in activities related to energy management of oil products, gas, and electricity. This segment also provides storage and transportation infrastructure for oil and gas products, as well as engages in the sale of electricity to the grid in Portugal and Spain. The Commercial segment is involved in the areas of retail to final business-to-business and business to consumer customers of oil, gas, and electricity. The Renewables and New Business segment is involved in the development of solar and wind power generation projects in Portugal and Spain. In addition, it produces biodiesel, biofuel, and green hydrogen; and operates 1,480 service stations and 1,186 electric mobility charging points. Further, the company engages in the reinsurance business. The company was formerly known as Galp – Petróleos e Gás de Portugal, SGPS, S.A. and changed its name to Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. in September 2000. Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal.
How the Company Makes MoneyGalp Energia generates revenue primarily through its upstream activities, where it explores and produces oil and gas, selling these commodities in both domestic and international markets. The company also earns significant income from its downstream operations, which include refining crude oil into various petroleum products and marketing these products through its extensive retail network. Furthermore, Galp is investing in renewable energy projects, which are expected to contribute to future revenue streams as the global energy landscape shifts. Key partnerships with other energy companies and investments in joint ventures enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, while its integrated business model allows for cost efficiencies and risk management across its operations.

Galp Energia SGPS SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Galp's earnings call reflects a positive outlook with strong operational performance, particularly in upstream production and LNG trading. Financial guidance has been revised upwards, indicating confidence in future performance. However, challenges such as currency depreciation and disputes in Mozambique present areas of concern.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Upstream Production
Production reached 113,000 barrels per day, leading to an upgrade in the full-year production guidance to a range of 105,000 to 110,000 barrels per day.
Upward Revision of Financial Guidance
Full-year group EBITDA is now expected to surpass EUR 2.7 billion, up from a previous forecast of EUR 2.5 billion, with operating cash flow expected to exceed EUR 1.8 billion.
Significant LNG Trading Success
Successful lifting of 3 LNG cargoes from Venture Global and an expectation to receive a total of 10 cargoes by year-end, contributing significantly to midstream revenue.
Strong Cash Generation
Despite currency headwinds, strong operating performance led to robust cash generation.
Negative Updates
Currency Depreciation Impact
The company's financial performance faced headwinds from the depreciation of the dollar.
Capital Gains Dispute in Mozambique
There is an ongoing dispute regarding capital gains assessments in Mozambique, which could potentially lead to legal action.
Potential Delays in Namibian Asset Development
The farm-out process for the Namibian asset is ongoing with a target to complete by year-end, but no definitive timeline for FID has been provided, reflecting potential delays.
Company Guidance
During Galp's second-quarter 2025 call, the company upgraded its full-year production guidance to 105,000-110,000 barrels per day, reflecting strong upstream production and limited maintenance. The company successfully lifted three LNG cargoes from Venture Global, now expecting a total of ten cargoes for the year, contributing significantly to the midstream performance. Financial guidance was revised upwards, with full-year group EBITDA projected to exceed EUR 2.7 billion, up from a previous estimate of EUR 2.5 billion, and operating cash flow expected to surpass EUR 1.8 billion. The CapEx forecast for 2025 has been revised to below EUR 1 billion, with heavier spending anticipated in the second half, especially in low-carbon projects with a 2026 online date. Regarding Namibia, Galp is in the process of analyzing nonbinding offers from credible partners and aims to secure a partnership by year-end, emphasizing the importance of strategic alignment over rushing the process.

Galp Energia SGPS SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Galp Energia demonstrates stable profitability with a net profit margin of 4.82% and an EBIT margin of 10.63%. However, declining revenue growth and a decrease in gross profit margin pose potential risks. The balance sheet is moderately strong with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.14 and a return on equity of 21.58%. Cash flow shows positive growth, but operational cash generation needs improvement.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Galp Energia's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has experienced a decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -3.31% in the TTM period. However, it maintains a stable net profit margin of 4.82% and an EBIT margin of 10.63%, indicating operational efficiency. The gross profit margin has decreased compared to previous years, which could be a concern. Overall, while profitability remains stable, the declining revenue trend is a potential risk.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.14 in the TTM period suggests a balanced leverage, though slightly higher than the previous year. The return on equity is strong at 21.58%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, showing a solid capital structure. While the company has managed its debt well, maintaining this balance is crucial to avoid financial strain.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Galp Energia's cash flow statement indicates some strengths and weaknesses. The free cash flow growth rate has improved by 13.23% in the TTM period, showing positive cash generation. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 0.42, suggesting that cash generation from operations could be improved. The free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.25, indicating that a portion of earnings is being converted into free cash flow. Overall, while there is positive cash flow growth, operational cash generation needs attention.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue20.35B21.31B20.77B26.84B16.11B11.39B
Gross Profit2.35B2.73B3.98B2.67B1.83B166.00M
EBITDA3.13B3.50B3.75B4.54B1.81B1.19B
Net Income980.00M1.04B1.24B1.48B191.00M-490.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.51B16.82B16.61B16.10B14.91B12.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.81B2.44B2.37B2.74B2.93B1.83B
Total Debt4.95B4.91B5.41B5.26B5.48B4.83B
Total Liabilities10.40B11.18B11.28B10.98B10.94B8.39B
Stockholders Equity4.33B4.69B4.41B4.16B3.05B3.16B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow505.00M1.15B1.57B1.99B273.00M239.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.74B2.53B2.63B3.07B1.05B888.00M
Investing Cash Flow-543.00M-1.05B-1.02B-1.27B-460.00M-674.00M
Financing Cash Flow-1.26B-1.35B-1.91B-1.26B-530.00M190.00M

Galp Energia SGPS SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price9.76
Price Trends
50DMA
9.50
Negative
100DMA
9.06
Positive
200DMA
8.56
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.04
Negative
RSI
49.31
Neutral
STOCH
73.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLPEY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.43, above the 50-day MA of 9.50, and above the 200-day MA of 8.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GLPEY.

Galp Energia SGPS SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$53.55B20.074.99%5.11%-6.31%-33.87%
73
Outperform
$18.86B6.3914.38%19.43%-7.51%-29.04%
73
Outperform
$78.37B5.9718.86%13.21%-13.68%-13.96%
73
Outperform
$62.94B8.0619.62%8.71%1.19%-7.87%
72
Outperform
$10.22B7.564.28%
67
Neutral
$14.62B13.5121.08%1.92%-3.86%-25.50%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GLPEY
Galp Energia SGPS SA
9.76
0.56
6.09%
EC
Ecopetrol SA
9.21
1.11
13.70%
E
Eni SPA
34.95
4.90
16.31%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
12.66
-0.60
-4.52%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
24.58
-0.30
-1.21%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
23.57
1.21
5.41%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 24, 2025