Upstream production at top end of guidance
Delivered at the very top end of 2026 guidance (125,000–130,000 bbl/d), with Brazil performing strongly and Bacalhau contributing to the outturn; Bacalhau ramp-up ongoing with plateau expected later in 2026.
Stable net debt despite working capital build
Net debt remained stable quarter-on-quarter despite an approximately €200 million working capital build, demonstrating balance-sheet resilience during a period of rising commodity prices.
Midstream strong outlook and contribution
Midstream guidance above €500 million for 2026; trading gas contributes ~70% of Midstream performance and a large portion of this is already locked for 2026 (~70%).
Refining availability and margin upside potential
Refineries operating with strong availability; average Refining margins since quarter were ~$10–$12/bbl (spiking into the $20s on some days). Management expects to operate at full availability in coming quarters to capture market conditions.
Hedging and risk management in place
Refining hedges in 2026: ~28 million barrels locked (~1/3 of throughput) at approximately $8/bbl. Venture LNG offtake hedged at ~70–75% for 2026. Hedging and risk limits are governed by Board-approved policies.
Commercial resilience and retail actions
Commercial/retail campaigns and discount mechanisms implemented to protect customers; observed March volume increases (notably in Spain). Non-fuel business accounts for ~22% of the Commercial segment, supporting resilience.
Renewables and portfolio diversification
Acquisition increases wind share to ~25% of generation mix, enhancing portfolio balance and optionality; management open to opportunistic renewables deals to diversify generation profile.
Strategic M&A progress (Moeve) and downstream consolidation
Discussions on the Moeve downstream merger evolving positively with a potential agreement expected by mid-year; structure expected to create self-funded, ring-fenced industrial vs retail businesses and to be value accretive.
Clear sensitivity metrics to navigate volatility
Management provided clear earnings sensitivities to guide planning: roughly $160 million of EBITDA (OCF) per $5/bbl change in Brent and ~$200 million per $5 change in Refining margin.
Upstream cash flow potential from Bacalhau
Management expects Bacalhau to deliver approximately €400 million of operating cash flow once at plateau; Bacalhau benefits from a 50/50 concession/PSC regime which implies a more benevolent tax profile vs some legacy assets.