Margin CompressionDeclining gross and net margins point to structural pressure on profitability from refining headwinds and cost or price squeezes. Sustained margin erosion would constrain reinvestment, limit returns to shareholders, and require either efficiency gains or higher commodity realizations to restore historical profitability.
Mozambique Tax Dispute ArbitrationAn arbitration over tax liabilities introduces material regulatory and fiscal uncertainty that could produce retrospective cash outflows, fines, or operational constraints. Even without a current provision, adverse rulings would reduce future free cash flow and complicate planning for long-term projects and returns.
Namibia Partnership UncertaintyUnresolved negotiations for a Namibia partnership create execution risk for the Mopane project, potentially delaying or reducing expected production and associated cash flows. Prolonged uncertainty can defer strategic growth, increase development costs, and weaken the pipeline of new reserves critical for medium-term value creation.