Greenbrier (GBX) AI Stock Analysis

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Greenbrier

(NYSE:GBX)

67Neutral

Greenbrier's overall stock score is primarily supported by its strong financial performance and valuation, with impressive profitability and a robust balance sheet. However, declining revenue and negative cash flow, combined with weak technical indicators and certain operational challenges highlighted in the earnings call, moderate the overall score.

Greenbrier (GBX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.49B

Dividend Yield2.57%

Average Volume (3M)541.23K

Price to Earnings (P/E)7.5

Beta (1Y)1.07

Revenue Growth-5.79%

EPS Growth82.71%

CountryUS

Employees14,200

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength91

IndustryRailroads

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.69

Shares Outstanding31,389,406

10 Day Avg. Volume300,158

30 Day Avg. Volume541,231

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.70

Price to Book (P/B)0.95

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-47.20

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.00

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.21

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.77

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.70

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$49.00

Price Target Upside4.30% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering2

Greenbrier Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) is a leading international supplier of equipment and services to the freight rail transportation markets. Headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon, Greenbrier designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and Brazil. The company also offers repair and refurbishment services for railcars and provides leasing and management services to railcar owners. Additionally, Greenbrier is involved in marine vessel construction through its subsidiary, Gunderson Marine.

How the Company Makes MoneyGreenbrier generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and sale of freight railcars, which include a wide range of types such as double-stack intermodal cars, tank cars, and boxcars. A significant portion of its income also comes from providing repair and refurbishment services for railcars, which help maintain the operational efficiency of equipment for its customers. Additionally, Greenbrier earns money through its leasing and management services, whereby it leases railcars to customers and manages railcar fleets on their behalf. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and long-term contracts with major railroads, leasing companies, and industrial shippers, which ensure a steady demand for its products and services.

Greenbrier Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Greenbrier's financial performance is mixed, with strong profitability and a robust balance sheet characterized by zero debt and a healthy equity ratio. However, the company faces challenges with declining revenue and negative free cash flow, indicating areas needing improvement.

Income Statement

Positive

Greenbrier's income statement shows a mixed performance with some positive trends. The company achieved a high net profit margin of 10.84% in TTM, indicating strong profitability. However, revenue has decreased from previous periods, showing a concerning trend with a negative growth rate compared to past annual reports. Gross profit margin is notably negative, which could be a sign of cost management issues.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a strong financial position with zero debt in the TTM period and a healthy equity ratio of 51.75%. The return on equity (ROE) is 13.88%, demonstrating good return generation for shareholders. However, past periods showed significant leverage, suggesting some stability improvements recently.

Cash Flow

Neutral

The cash flow statement reveals challenges in generating positive free cash flow, with a negative free cash flow in TTM. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.83, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. Improvements in operating cash flow have been observed, but consistent free cash flow generation remains an area for improvement.

TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.51B	3.54B	3.94B	2.98B	1.75B	2.79B
	Gross Profit
624.70M	553.50M	441.10M	306.00M	231.61M	353.13M
	EBIT
380.70M	306.00M	176.40M	43.60M	40.97M	168.43M
	EBITDA
499.30M	450.30M	312.10M	182.80M	131.46M	273.82M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
202.70M	160.10M	62.50M	46.90M	32.40M	84.63M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
263.50M	368.60M	281.70M	543.00M	646.77M	833.75M
	Total Assets
4.27B	4.25B	3.98B	3.85B	3.39B	3.17B
	Total Debt
1.85B	1.82B	1.61B	1.57B	1.20B	1.16B
	Net Debt
1.58B	1.47B	1.33B	1.02B	551.91M	321.87M
	Total Liabilities
2.61B	2.68B	2.51B	2.39B	1.88B	1.67B
	Stockholders Equity
1.46B	1.38B	1.25B	1.28B	1.31B	1.29B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-29.50M	-68.70M	-290.90M	-531.10M	-179.54M	205.38M
	Operating Cash Flow
370.20M	329.60M	71.20M	-150.40M	-40.52M	272.26M
	Investing Cash Flow
-223.70M	-320.40M	-280.00M	-224.00M	-117.76M	27.48M
	Financing Cash Flow
-25.20M	86.20M	-76.20M	244.90M	-22.74M	216.46M

Greenbrier Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price46.98

Price Trends

50DMA

47.21

Positive

100DMA

54.30

Negative

200DMA

54.29

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.27

Negative

RSI

59.59

Neutral

STOCH

85.47

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 46.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.06, below the 50-day MA of 47.21, and below the 200-day MA of 54.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GBX.

Greenbrier Risk Analysis

Greenbrier disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greenbrier reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Greenbrier Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WAB	78 Outperform	$35.20B	32.24	10.62%	0.41%	5.21%	24.15%
TRN	73 Outperform	$2.19B	16.53	14.14%	4.32%	-9.40%	8.41%
SFL	71 Outperform	$1.28B	21.18	5.09%	12.30%	6.68%	-57.55%
FSTR	70 Neutral	$204.85M	5.88	23.08%	―	-8.75%	354.10%
GBX	67 Neutral	$1.49B	7.51	14.69%	2.57%	-5.79%	82.71%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$4.44B	11.99	5.16%	249.23%	4.01%	-11.87%
RAIL	52 Neutral	$147.18M	―	156.43%	―	12.58%	34.10%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GBX

Greenbrier

46.98

-2.87

-5.76%

RAIL

Freightcar America

7.54

3.91

107.71%

FSTR

L. B. Foster Company

19.60

-9.32

-32.23%

SFL

SFL Corporation

8.70

-4.23

-32.71%

TRN

Trinity Industries

26.69

-2.94

-9.92%

WAB

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies

207.16

37.32

21.97%

Greenbrier Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 07, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: 5.81%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 14, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a strong financial performance with significant achievements in margin improvement, dividend increase, and leasing growth. However, challenges such as European facility rationalization, trade policy uncertainty, and reduced railcar delivery guidance present headwinds. The positive financial metrics and strategic growth initiatives are somewhat counterbalanced by these challenges.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Financial Performance

Core net earnings of $56 million or $1.73 per share, reflecting a higher EPS on lower revenue, with an impressive gross margin of 18.2%. Operating income reached nearly $84 million or 11% of revenue.

Increased Dividend

Quarterly dividend increased by nearly 7% to $0.32 per share, demonstrating confidence in long-term strategy and commitment to return value to shareholders.

Robust Backlog and Revenue Visibility

Global new railcar backlog remains strong at over 20,000 units, providing significant revenue visibility and allowing efficient management of production rates and lines.

Leasing and Fleet Management Growth

Recurring revenue reached $157 million over the last four quarters, representing 39% growth from two years ago. Leasing fundamentals remain strong with high renewal rates and rate increases.

Negative Updates

Facility Rationalization in Europe

Rationalization of a facility in Romania will lead to reduced deliveries from European facilities in the second half of fiscal 2025.

Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty

Tariffs are affecting the cost of inputs, predominantly steel, leading to adjustments in production rates and lines in North America.

Reduced Guidance for New Railcar Deliveries

New railcar delivery guidance narrowed to a range of 21,500 to 23,500 units, down from initial expectations due to European facility rationalization and production changes in North America.

Company Guidance

During The Greenbrier Companies' second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings call, the company provided updated guidance and key performance metrics. Greenbrier reported core net earnings of $56 million, equating to $1.73 per share, with an impressive aggregate gross margin of 18.2%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of margins at or above mid-teens. The company increased its full-year aggregate gross margin guidance by 100 basis points to a range of 17% to 17.5%, and its operating margin guidance to between 10.2% and 10.7%. New railcar deliveries for fiscal 2025 are expected to be between 21,500 and 23,500 units, with anticipated revenue of $3.15 billion to $3.35 billion. Greenbrier's global railcar backlog remains robust at 20,400 units, valued at $2.6 billion. The company also announced a nearly 7% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.32 per share, reflecting confidence in its long-term strategy.

Greenbrier Corporate Events

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Greenbrier Increases Quarterly Dividend by 7%

Positive

Apr 3, 2025

On April 3, 2025, Greenbrier announced a 7% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, raising it to $0.32 per share, payable on May 13, 2025, to stockholders of record as of April 22, 2025. This marks the company’s 44th consecutive quarterly dividend and reflects the strength of its long-term business strategy and commitment to returning capital to shareholders.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.