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Greenbrier Companies (GBX)
NYSE:GBX
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Greenbrier (GBX) AI Stock Analysis

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Greenbrier

(NYSE:GBX)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$54.00
▲(12.50%Upside)
Greenbrier demonstrates a balanced stock profile with strong financial performance and attractive valuation. The earnings call and corporate events further bolster investor confidence. However, technical analysis indicates cautious market sentiment, and challenges like revenue decline and market-specific risks should be monitored.
Positive Factors
Earnings Performance
GBX's F3Q adjusted EPS significantly exceeded expectations, driven by gross margin improvements and other factors.
Future Earnings
GBX's future earnings are anticipated to be better than previous expectations and much stronger compared to past performance during similar cycles.
Price Target
The price target for Greenbrier Companies has been raised from $52.00 to $57.00.
Negative Factors
Earnings Power
Expectations are set for GBX's F3Q earnings power to fade into F4Q25 and early F2026 due to a ramp-down in deliveries and margins, despite unusual benefits in F3Q.
Future Deliveries and Margins
There is an expectation for GBX's earnings power to decrease in future quarters due to a reduction in deliveries and margins.

Greenbrier (GBX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Greenbrier Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and South America. It operates through three segments: Manufacturing; Wheels, Repair & Parts; and Leasing & Services. The Manufacturing segment offers conventional railcars, such as covered hopper cars, boxcars, center partition cars, and bulkhead flat cars; tank cars; double-stack intermodal railcars; auto-max and multi-max products for the transportation of light vehicles; pressurized tank cars, non-pressurized tank cars, flat cars, coil cars, gondolas, sliding wall cars, and automobile transporter cars; and marine vessels. The Wheels, Repair & Parts segment provides wheel services, including reconditioning of wheels and axles, new axle machining and finishing, and downsizing; operates a railcar repair, refurbishment, and maintenance network; and reconditions and manufactures railcar cushioning units, couplers, yokes, side frames, bolsters, and various other parts, as well as produces roofs, doors, and associated parts for boxcars. The Leasing & Services segment offers operating leases and 'per diem' leases for a fleet of approximately 8,800 railcars; and management services comprising railcar maintenance management, railcar accounting services, fleet management and logistics, administration, and railcar remarketing. This segment owns or provides management services to a fleet of approximately 444,000 railcars for railroads, shippers, carriers, institutional investors, and other leasing and transportation companies. The company serves railroads, leasing companies, financial institutions, shippers, carriers, and transportation companies. The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreenbrier primarily generates revenue through the manufacturing and sale of various types of railcars and marine vessels. The company operates in three main segments: Manufacturing, Wheels & Parts, and Leasing & Services. The Manufacturing segment is the largest contributor to revenue, producing a wide array of railcars for the freight transportation industry. The Wheels & Parts segment provides essential components and repair services for railcars, while the Leasing & Services segment offers railcar leasing and management services. Strategic partnerships with major railroads and leasing companies, along with long-term contracts, also play a significant role in Greenbrier's financial performance, helping ensure steady demand for their products and services.

Greenbrier Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 01, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: 2.78%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance and operational efficiency, demonstrating resilience and strategic execution. However, challenges such as a declining backlog and muted European market activity pose potential future risks.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Greenbrier reported net earnings of $60.1 million or $1.86 per share, with an 18% gross margin, marking the seventh consecutive quarter achieving or exceeding mid-teens gross margin target.
Operational Efficiency Initiatives
Efficiency initiatives such as the European footprint rationalization and North American insourcing project are expected to realize savings of at least $10 million annually.
Leasing and Fleet Management Growth
Recurring revenue reached nearly $165 million over the last four quarters, representing nearly 50% growth from the starting point of $113 million two years ago.
Order and Backlog Strength
Greenbrier secured orders of 3,900 units worth more than $500 million in the quarter, with a global new railcar backlog at nearly 19,000 units providing industry-leading visibility.
Improved Liquidity and Balance Sheet
Greenbrier's liquidity reached nearly $770 million, with renewed bank facilities totaling $850 million and no significant debt maturities until 2027.
Negative Updates
Decline in Backlog
The backlog of 18,900 units is the lowest since the second quarter of 2014, indicating potential future challenges if order levels do not improve.
Challenges in European Market
Muted activity in the European railcar market due to economic uncertainty, with growth dependent on economic recovery.
Reduced Production Rates
Adjustments to production rates have been necessary due to slower order levels, reflecting ongoing market challenges.
Company Guidance
In the Greenbrier Companies' third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided a comprehensive overview of its financial performance and future outlook. Greenbrier reported net earnings of $60.1 million, or $1.86 per share, with an aggregate gross margin of 18%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter at or above their mid-teens target. The company achieved a return on invested capital within its long-term target range. Greenbrier's liquidity was nearly $770 million, comprising almost $300 million in cash and over $470 million in available borrowing capacity. The company raised its aggregate gross margin guidance to a range of 17.7% to 18.3% and its operating margin guidance to a range of 10.6% to 11%. Greenbrier also highlighted a healthy global new railcar backlog of nearly 19,000 units and a strong leasing and fleet management performance, with recurring revenue reaching nearly $165 million over the last four quarters—a 50% growth from its starting point. The company remains optimistic about future market conditions, particularly with the potential positive impacts from U.S. trade and tax policy.

Greenbrier Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Greenbrier demonstrates commendable financial performance with improved profitability and cash flow management. The significant improvements in operational margins and shareholder returns are positive, but the slight revenue decline and lower equity ratio suggest areas for enhancement.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Greenbrier's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) financial performance demonstrates a strong recovery and growth trajectory, with a notable increase in gross profit margin to 18.51% and net profit margin to 6.48%. The company has shown significant EBIT and EBITDA margin improvements, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. However, there is a slight decline in revenue compared to the prior year, which presents a potential risk.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet reflects moderate financial stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.23, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity (ROE) has improved to 15.22%, signaling better profitability for shareholders. However, the equity ratio stands at 34.55%, which indicates room for enhancing asset-backed equity.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Greenbrier's cash flow performance is strong, with a positive transition in free cash flow to $76.2 million from a negative position, reflecting robust cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.57 indicates efficient cash utilization. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains below 1, suggesting potential areas for cash flow optimization.
BreakdownSep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.54B3.94B2.98B1.75B2.79B
Gross Profit553.50M441.10M306.00M231.61M353.13M
EBITDA450.30M312.10M182.80M131.46M273.82M
Net Income160.10M62.50M46.90M32.40M84.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.25B3.98B3.85B3.39B3.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments368.60M281.70M543.00M646.77M833.75M
Total Debt1.82B1.61B1.57B1.20B1.16B
Total Liabilities2.68B2.51B2.39B1.88B1.67B
Stockholders Equity1.38B1.25B1.28B1.31B1.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-68.70M-290.90M-531.10M-179.54M205.38M
Operating Cash Flow329.60M71.20M-150.40M-40.52M272.26M
Investing Cash Flow-320.40M-280.00M-224.00M-117.76M27.48M
Financing Cash Flow86.20M-76.20M244.90M-22.74M216.46M

Greenbrier Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price48.00
Price Trends
50DMA
47.41
Positive
100DMA
47.73
Positive
200DMA
54.19
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.87
Positive
RSI
44.39
Neutral
STOCH
6.41
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.33, above the 50-day MA of 47.41, and below the 200-day MA of 54.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.87 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GBX.

Greenbrier Risk Analysis

Greenbrier disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greenbrier reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Greenbrier Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
WAWAB
81
Outperform
$36.26B33.2210.62%0.43%5.21%24.15%
75
Outperform
$237.69M6.8223.08%-8.75%354.10%
TRTRN
73
Outperform
$2.14B16.1614.14%4.53%-9.40%8.41%
GBGBX
70
Outperform
$1.50B6.8316.16%2.58%0.71%84.57%
SFSFL
69
Neutral
$1.33B22.075.09%11.97%6.68%-57.55%
67
Neutral
£2.87B10.554.69%233.42%2.40%-24.48%
58
Neutral
$208.21M156.43%12.58%34.10%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GBX
Greenbrier
48.00
-0.12
-0.25%
RAIL
Freightcar America
11.32
8.02
243.03%
FSTR
L. B. Foster Company
22.51
-0.61
-2.64%
SFL
SFL Corporation
9.22
-3.22
-25.88%
TRN
Trinity Industries
26.60
-4.80
-15.29%
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies
211.89
44.59
26.65%

Greenbrier Corporate Events

Dividends
Greenbrier Announces 45th Consecutive Quarterly Dividend
Positive
Jun 30, 2025

On June 30, 2025, The Greenbrier Companies announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share, marking its 45th consecutive quarterly dividend. This dividend will be paid on August 7, 2025, to stockholders of record as of July 17, 2025. This announcement underscores Greenbrier’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders and highlights its stable financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GBX) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenbrier stock, see the GBX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Greenbrier Expands Board with Rail Industry Experts
Positive
Jun 23, 2025

On June 19, 2025, Greenbrier expanded its Board of Directors from eight to ten members by appointing Stevan Bobb and Jeffrey Songer, who bring extensive rail industry expertise. Bobb, with a 36-year career at BNSF Railway, and Songer, with significant experience at Kansas City Southern, are expected to enhance Greenbrier’s strategic planning and operations, particularly in the U.S. and Mexico. Their appointments are anticipated to support Greenbrier’s initiatives to improve customer experience and increase shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GBX) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenbrier stock, see the GBX Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Greenbrier Extends Credit Agreement with Bank of America
Positive
May 27, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Greenbrier entered into a Fifth Amendment to its Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Bank of America, extending its $600 million domestic revolving facility and $250 million term loan by five years until 2030. This renewal, announced on May 27, 2025, reflects Greenbrier’s strategic approach to debt management, allowing the company to maintain favorable pricing and terms while staggering long-term debt maturities into 2030. The amendment also increases various financial covenant baskets, enhancing Greenbrier’s operational flexibility. CEO Lorie Tekorius highlighted the importance of a healthy liquidity position as a cornerstone of Greenbrier’s strategy to navigate market conditions and maximize shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (GBX) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenbrier stock, see the GBX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 19, 2025