Greenbrier (GBX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.50B
• Dividend Yield: 2.58%
• Average Volume (3M): 535.60K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: 0.71%
• EPS Growth: 84.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,200
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 90
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 1.86
• Shares Outstanding: 30,883,673
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 724,384
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 535,596
• PEG Ratio: 0.54
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.70
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.61
• 1Y Price Target: $57.00
• Price Target Upside: 18.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $54.00 ▲(12.50%Upside)

Greenbrier demonstrates a balanced stock profile with strong financial performance and attractive valuation. The earnings call and corporate events further bolster investor confidence. However, technical analysis indicates cautious market sentiment, and challenges like revenue decline and market-specific risks should be monitored.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

GBX's F3Q adjusted EPS significantly exceeded expectations, driven by gross margin improvements and other factors.

Future Earnings

GBX's future earnings are anticipated to be better than previous expectations and much stronger compared to past performance during similar cycles.

Price Target

The price target for Greenbrier Companies has been raised from $52.00 to $57.00.

Negative Factors

Earnings Power

Expectations are set for GBX's F3Q earnings power to fade into F4Q25 and early F2026 due to a ramp-down in deliveries and margins, despite unusual benefits in F3Q.

Future Deliveries and Margins

There is an expectation for GBX's earnings power to decrease in future quarters due to a reduction in deliveries and margins.

Greenbrier Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and South America. It operates through three segments: Manufacturing; Wheels, Repair & Parts; and Leasing & Services. The Manufacturing segment offers conventional railcars, such as covered hopper cars, boxcars, center partition cars, and bulkhead flat cars; tank cars; double-stack intermodal railcars; auto-max and multi-max products for the transportation of light vehicles; pressurized tank cars, non-pressurized tank cars, flat cars, coil cars, gondolas, sliding wall cars, and automobile transporter cars; and marine vessels. The Wheels, Repair & Parts segment provides wheel services, including reconditioning of wheels and axles, new axle machining and finishing, and downsizing; operates a railcar repair, refurbishment, and maintenance network; and reconditions and manufactures railcar cushioning units, couplers, yokes, side frames, bolsters, and various other parts, as well as produces roofs, doors, and associated parts for boxcars. The Leasing & Services segment offers operating leases and 'per diem' leases for a fleet of approximately 8,800 railcars; and management services comprising railcar maintenance management, railcar accounting services, fleet management and logistics, administration, and railcar remarketing. This segment owns or provides management services to a fleet of approximately 444,000 railcars for railroads, shippers, carriers, institutional investors, and other leasing and transportation companies. The company serves railroads, leasing companies, financial institutions, shippers, carriers, and transportation companies. The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

How the Company Makes Money

Greenbrier primarily generates revenue through the manufacturing and sale of various types of railcars and marine vessels. The company operates in three main segments: Manufacturing, Wheels & Parts, and Leasing & Services. The Manufacturing segment is the largest contributor to revenue, producing a wide array of railcars for the freight transportation industry. The Wheels & Parts segment provides essential components and repair services for railcars, while the Leasing & Services segment offers railcar leasing and management services. Strategic partnerships with major railroads and leasing companies, along with long-term contracts, also play a significant role in Greenbrier's financial performance, helping ensure steady demand for their products and services.

Greenbrier Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Greenbrier demonstrates commendable financial performance with improved profitability and cash flow management. The significant improvements in operational margins and shareholder returns are positive, but the slight revenue decline and lower equity ratio suggest areas for enhancement.

Income Statement

Greenbrier's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) financial performance demonstrates a strong recovery and growth trajectory, with a notable increase in gross profit margin to 18.51% and net profit margin to 6.48%. The company has shown significant EBIT and EBITDA margin improvements, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. However, there is a slight decline in revenue compared to the prior year, which presents a potential risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate financial stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.23, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity (ROE) has improved to 15.22%, signaling better profitability for shareholders. However, the equity ratio stands at 34.55%, which indicates room for enhancing asset-backed equity.

Cash Flow

Greenbrier's cash flow performance is strong, with a positive transition in free cash flow to $76.2 million from a negative position, reflecting robust cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.57 indicates efficient cash utilization. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains below 1, suggesting potential areas for cash flow optimization.

Breakdown	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.54B	3.94B	2.98B	1.75B	2.79B
Gross Profit	553.50M	441.10M	306.00M	231.61M	353.13M
EBITDA	450.30M	312.10M	182.80M	131.46M	273.82M
Net Income	160.10M	62.50M	46.90M	32.40M	84.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.25B	3.98B	3.85B	3.39B	3.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	368.60M	281.70M	543.00M	646.77M	833.75M
Total Debt	1.82B	1.61B	1.57B	1.20B	1.16B
Total Liabilities	2.68B	2.51B	2.39B	1.88B	1.67B
Stockholders Equity	1.38B	1.25B	1.28B	1.31B	1.29B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-68.70M	-290.90M	-531.10M	-179.54M	205.38M
Operating Cash Flow	329.60M	71.20M	-150.40M	-40.52M	272.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-320.40M	-280.00M	-224.00M	-117.76M	27.48M
Financing Cash Flow	86.20M	-76.20M	244.90M	-22.74M	216.46M

Greenbrier Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 48.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.33, above the 50-day MA of 47.41, and below the 200-day MA of 54.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.87 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GBX.

Greenbrier Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WAB	81 Outperform	$36.26B	33.22	10.62%	0.43%	5.21%	24.15%
FSTR	75 Outperform	$237.69M	6.82	23.08%	―	-8.75%	354.10%
TRN	73 Outperform	$2.14B	16.16	14.14%	4.53%	-9.40%	8.41%
GBX	70 Outperform	$1.50B	6.83	16.16%	2.58%	0.71%	84.57%
SFL	69 Neutral	$1.33B	22.07	5.09%	11.97%	6.68%	-57.55%
Sector *	67 Neutral	£2.87B	10.55	4.69%	233.42%	2.40%	-24.48%
RAIL	58 Neutral	$208.21M	―	156.43%	―	12.58%	34.10%

Greenbrier Corporate Events

Greenbrier Announces 45th Consecutive Quarterly Dividend

On June 30, 2025, The Greenbrier Companies announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share, marking its 45th consecutive quarterly dividend. This dividend will be paid on August 7, 2025, to stockholders of record as of July 17, 2025. This announcement underscores Greenbrier’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders and highlights its stable financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GBX) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenbrier stock, see the GBX Stock Forecast page.

Greenbrier Expands Board with Rail Industry Experts

On June 19, 2025, Greenbrier expanded its Board of Directors from eight to ten members by appointing Stevan Bobb and Jeffrey Songer, who bring extensive rail industry expertise. Bobb, with a 36-year career at BNSF Railway, and Songer, with significant experience at Kansas City Southern, are expected to enhance Greenbrier’s strategic planning and operations, particularly in the U.S. and Mexico. Their appointments are anticipated to support Greenbrier’s initiatives to improve customer experience and increase shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GBX) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenbrier stock, see the GBX Stock Forecast page.

Greenbrier Extends Credit Agreement with Bank of America

On May 21, 2025, Greenbrier entered into a Fifth Amendment to its Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Bank of America, extending its $600 million domestic revolving facility and $250 million term loan by five years until 2030. This renewal, announced on May 27, 2025, reflects Greenbrier’s strategic approach to debt management, allowing the company to maintain favorable pricing and terms while staggering long-term debt maturities into 2030. The amendment also increases various financial covenant baskets, enhancing Greenbrier’s operational flexibility. CEO Lorie Tekorius highlighted the importance of a healthy liquidity position as a cornerstone of Greenbrier’s strategy to navigate market conditions and maximize shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (GBX) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenbrier stock, see the GBX Stock Forecast page.