Greenbrier Companies (GBX)
NYSE:GBX
Top Page
Greenbrier
(NYSE:GBX)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$57.00
▲(11.52% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/04/26
The score is anchored by mixed financial fundamentals: improved profitability and returns, but pressured recent revenue trends, high leverage, and uneven free cash flow. Offsetting this, technicals are positive with the stock above major moving averages, valuation is compelling with a low P/E and a dividend, and the earnings call supported confidence via reiterated FY2026 guidance and strong liquidity despite demand uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Recurring leasing & diversified revenue
High lease utilization and strong renewals create a durable, recurring revenue stream that smooths cyclicality from new‑build orders. Recurring leasing cash flows support steady EBITDA, improve predictability for financing and underwriting of fleet investments over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Top-line contraction and demand uncertainty
A pronounced revenue decline raises the risk that recent margin gains are not sustainable if volumes remain weak. Prolonged demand weakness from freight and trade-policy uncertainty can compress manufacturing throughput, worsen absorption of fixed costs, and rebound slowly over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring leasing & diversified revenue
High lease utilization and strong renewals create a durable, recurring revenue stream that smooths cyclicality from new‑build orders. Recurring leasing cash flows support steady EBITDA, improve predictability for financing and underwriting of fleet investments over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Greenbrier (GBX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.58B
Dividend Yield2.71%
Average Volume (3M)287.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.5
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth-8.66%
EPS Growth27.14%
CountryUS
Employees14,200
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.14
Shares Outstanding30,886,164
10 Day Avg. Volume326,987
30 Day Avg. Volume287,838
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.27
Price to Book (P/B)0.98
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio-101.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$54.50Price Target Upside6.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)4.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.90B
Greenbrier Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and South America. It operates through three segments: Manufacturing; Wheels, Repair & Parts; and Leasing & Services. The Ma...
How the Company Makes Money
Greenbrier generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of new railcars and the provision of railcar repair and refurbishment services. The company manufactures various types of railcars, which are sold to railroads and ...
Greenbrier Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 08, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized disciplined execution, strong liquidity, solid Q1 financial results (revenue, margins, EPS, EBITDA) and resilient leasing performance. Management reiterated FY2026 guidance and highlighted order momentum, backlog stability and opportunistic fleet transactions. Key near-term challenges include demand timing uncertainty driven by freight volumes and trade policy, moderated production with workforce adjustments (primarily Mexico) and European restructuring-related inefficiencies. On balance, the positives (liquidity, recurring leasing earnings, order momentum, stable backlog, and guidance reiteration) outweigh the near-term operational and demand-related headwinds.Positive Updates
Solid Quarterly Financials
Q1 revenue of $706 million; aggregate gross margin of 15%; operating income of $61 million (~9% of revenue); diluted EPS of $1.14; EBITDA of $98 million (~14% of revenue).
Negative Updates
Demand Uncertainty and Customer Caution
Customers remain circumspect on capital investments due to current freight volumes, trade policy uncertainty and improving rail service/velocity, delaying near-term new railcar orders and creating 'white space' in summer ordering cadence.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Quarterly Financials
Q1 revenue of $706 million; aggregate gross margin of 15%; operating income of $61 million (~9% of revenue); diluted EPS of $1.14; EBITDA of $98 million (~14% of revenue).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Greenbrier reiterated fiscal 2026 guidance calling for new railcar deliveries of 17,500–20,500 units (including ~1,500 in Greenbrier‑Maxion Brazil), revenue of $2.7–$3.2 billion, aggregate gross margin of 16.0–16.5%, operating margin of 9.0–9.5% and diluted EPS of $3.75–$4.75; they forecast manufacturing capital expenditures of about $80 million, gross investment in leasing and fleet management of roughly $205 million (with expected equipment sale proceeds of about $165 million) and noted trailing‑12‑month ROIC of 10% with a 2026 ROIC target of 10–14%, while flagging the potential to opportunistically increase used‑equipment investments above plan.Greenbrier Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Aug 2025 | Aug 2024 | Aug 2023 | Aug 2022 | Aug 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.06B | 3.23B | 3.54B | 3.94B | 2.98B | 1.75B |
| Gross Profit | 531.30M | 600.40M | 553.10M | 442.10M | 305.60M | 232.29M |
| EBITDA | 465.70M | 517.80M | 450.30M | 312.10M | 213.70M | 131.46M |
| Net Income | 185.20M | 204.10M | 160.10M | 62.50M | 46.90M | 32.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.30B | 4.36B | 4.25B | 3.98B | 3.85B | 3.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 361.80M | 326.40M | 351.80M | 302.70M | 559.10M | 671.40M |
| Total Debt | 1.85B | 1.84B | 2.17B | 1.68B | 1.62B | 1.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.56B | 2.63B | 2.68B | 2.51B | 2.39B | 1.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.54B | 1.53B | 1.38B | 1.25B | 1.28B | 1.31B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 123.40M | -14.70M | -65.80M | -284.10M | -527.60M | -174.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 402.20M | 265.70M | 332.50M | 78.00M | -146.90M | -35.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -159.60M | -203.10M | -323.30M | -286.80M | -227.50M | -123.11M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -179.90M | -101.70M | 86.20M | -76.20M | 244.90M | -22.74M |
Greenbrier Technical Analysis
Negative
51.11
Price Trends
53.50
Negative
49.35
Positive
47.71
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.83
Positive
38.41
Neutral
60.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.12, below the 50-day MA of 53.50, and above the 200-day MA of 47.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GBX.
Greenbrier Risk Analysis
Greenbrier disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greenbrier reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Greenbrier Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $41.11B | 31.11 | 10.77% | 0.46% | 4.40% | 14.60% | |
68 Neutral | $1.58B | 9.50 | 12.27% | 2.71% | -8.66% | 27.14% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $286.96M | 28.35 | 2.74% | ― | -5.51% | -88.11% | |
56 Neutral | $2.49B | 8.44 | 24.45% | 4.34% | -33.03% | -44.18% | |
53 Neutral | $153.35M | 9.24 | -40.20% | ― | -6.18% | ― | |
40 Underperform | $18.48M | -1.46 | -59.72% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
GBX
Greenbrier
51.11
0.63
1.24%
RAIL
Freightcar America
8.04
2.40
42.55%
FSTR
L. B. Foster Company
27.84
7.76
38.65%
TRN
Trinity Industries
31.19
3.98
14.64%
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies
241.11
60.22
33.29%
RVSN
Rail Vision Ltd.
8.43
-4.17
-33.08%
Greenbrier Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Greenbrier Completes $300 Million Railcar ABS Financing
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Greenbrier, through its indirect wholly owned special purpose subsidiary GBX Leasing 2022-1 LLC, completed a $300 million issuance of railcar asset-backed securities comprising Class A and Class B Notes. The Notes, backed by a...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Greenbrier Shareholders Back Board, Compensation and Share Increase
Positive
Jan 9, 2026
On January 7, 2026, The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors elected five directors to staggered board terms, including confirming recent appointees Stevan B. Bobb and Jeffrey M. Songer, thereby ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.