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Greenbrier
(NYSE:GBX)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$50.00
▼(-0.64% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:07/02/26
The score is held back mainly by weak cash conversion (consistently negative free cash flow) and a leveraged balance sheet amid recent revenue declines. Offsetting these risks are improved profitability, supportive valuation (reasonable P/E and a ~2.7% dividend yield), and a constructive earnings call highlighting strong leasing utilization and solid liquidity despite soft new-build demand and timing/regulatory headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong leasing platform and high utilization
A large, growing owned lease fleet at ~99% utilization creates stable, recurring lease income and cash generation less tied to volatile new-build cycles. This diversified revenue stream supports steady cash flow, utilization-driven earnings resilience, and strategic flexibility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Consistently negative free cash flow
Persistent negative free cash flow undermines the company’s ability to organically pay down debt, fund investments, or return capital without external financing. Over months this reduces financial flexibility, increases dependence on debt markets, and complicates sustainable deleveraging during the downturn.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong leasing platform and high utilization
A large, growing owned lease fleet at ~99% utilization creates stable, recurring lease income and cash generation less tied to volatile new-build cycles. This diversified revenue stream supports steady cash flow, utilization-driven earnings resilience, and strategic flexibility over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Greenbrier (GBX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.58B
Dividend Yield2.71%
Average Volume (3M)568.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.5
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth-25.64%
EPS Growth-52.74%
CountryUS
Employees11,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.46
Shares Outstanding30,939,686
10 Day Avg. Volume660,070
30 Day Avg. Volume568,330
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)0.98
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio-101.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$47.00Price Target Upside-6.60% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)3.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.53B
Greenbrier Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. operates as a prominent player in the railway sector, dedicated to the engineering, construction, and distribution of railroad freight car equipment across North America, Europe, and South America. Its operations are...
How the Company Makes Money
Greenbrier generates revenue primarily through the sale of freight railcars and related railcar components, supported by after-market services and leasing activities. A significant portion of its revenue comes from manufacturing and delivering new...
Greenbrier Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 01, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrayed a resilient and well-capitalized company demonstrating operational discipline, margin improvement, strong leasing momentum (99% utilization and growing owned fleet), and robust liquidity. These positives offset near-term headwinds: weaker new-build demand (industry forecasts for 2026), a small sequential decline in manufacturing revenue, timing shifts of activity into fiscal 2027, and regulatory uncertainties around tariffs and couplers. Management emphasized diversified lease growth, cost control, and balanced capital allocation while narrowing guidance to reflect timing risks.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue and Profitability
Total revenue of $577 million for the quarter; aggregate gross margin improved sequentially to 14.1% (within long-term target range); earnings from operations of $32 million (~6% of revenue); diluted EPS of $0.60; EBITDA of $69 million (~12% of revenue).
Negative Updates
Weak Near-Term New Car Demand
Industry headwinds: North American industry forecasts project fewer than 25k new railcars for calendar 2026 (the lowest level since 2010), a notable decline from the ~35k average annual deliveries since 2020; this pressure is weighing on new-build demand and manufacturing revenue.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue and Profitability
Total revenue of $577 million for the quarter; aggregate gross margin improved sequentially to 14.1% (within long-term target range); earnings from operations of $32 million (~6% of revenue); diluted EPS of $0.60; EBITDA of $69 million (~12% of revenue).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Greenbrier guided fiscal 2026 revenue of $2.4–$2.5 billion and narrowed EPS to $3.00–$3.15, noting the outlook reflects fourth‑quarter manufacturing margins and delivery timing (with some activity shifting into fiscal 2027); Q3 metrics cited were revenue $577M (manufacturing $529M, leasing $47M, leasing +3% q/q), aggregate gross margin 14.1%, operating income $32M (~6% of revenue), EBITDA $69M (~12%), diluted EPS $0.60, effective tax rate ~20%, backlog 13.8k cars valued at $2.0B, 2.2k orders this quarter ($340M), owned lease fleet 20.6k cars at 99% utilization (≈4.4k secondary acquisitions this quarter), operating cash invested $227M in leased cars, total liquidity ~$887M ($274M cash, $613M available), a new $300M lease facility with a $125M delayed draw, an ongoing lease‑fleet investment target up to $300M/year, a $0.34 quarterly dividend (49th consecutive), and ~$65M remaining on the share‑repurchase authorization.Greenbrier Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Aug 2025 | Aug 2024 | Aug 2023 | Aug 2022 | Aug 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.63B | 3.23B | 3.54B | 3.94B | 2.98B | 1.75B |
| Gross Profit | 393.80M | 600.40M | 553.10M | 442.10M | 305.60M | 232.29M |
| EBITDA | 294.30M | 517.80M | 450.30M | 312.10M | 213.70M | 131.46M |
| Net Income | 102.10M | 204.10M | 160.10M | 62.50M | 46.90M | 32.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.35B | 4.36B | 4.25B | 3.98B | 3.85B | 3.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 273.70M | 326.40M | 351.80M | 302.70M | 559.10M | 671.40M |
| Total Debt | 1.81B | 1.84B | 2.17B | 1.68B | 1.62B | 1.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.65B | 2.63B | 2.68B | 2.51B | 2.39B | 1.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.57B | 1.53B | 1.38B | 1.25B | 1.28B | 1.31B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -118.60M | -14.70M | -65.80M | -284.10M | -527.60M | -174.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 99.90M | 265.70M | 332.50M | 78.00M | -146.90M | -35.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -52.90M | -203.10M | -323.30M | -286.80M | -227.50M | -123.11M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -74.00M | -101.70M | 86.20M | -76.20M | 244.90M | -22.74M |
Greenbrier Technical Analysis
Positive
50.32
Price Trends
48.08
Positive
49.72
Positive
48.07
Positive
Market Momentum
0.17
Negative
58.05
Neutral
78.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 50.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.33, above the 50-day MA of 48.08, and above the 200-day MA of 48.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GBX.
Greenbrier Risk Analysis
Greenbrier disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greenbrier reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Greenbrier Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $44.78B | 37.02 | 10.94% | 0.46% | 9.59% | 10.69% | |
67 Neutral | $442.30M | 38.47 | 6.39% | ― | 11.73% | -68.10% | |
64 Neutral | $2.95B | 11.43 | 24.50% | 4.34% | -27.72% | 91.42% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $1.58B | 14.46 | 9.51% | 2.71% | -25.64% | -52.74% | |
57 Neutral | $253.36M | 8.36 | -33.78% | ― | -4.92% | ― | |
44 Neutral | $8.86M | -0.68 | -59.72% | ― | 14.38% | 91.00% |
* Industrials Sector Average
GBX
Greenbrier
50.02
2.71
5.73%
RAIL
Freightcar America
7.52
-3.37
-30.95%
FSTR
L. B. Foster Company
41.93
19.19
84.39%
TRN
Trinity Industries
36.47
11.21
44.38%
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies
262.08
51.21
24.29%
RVSN
Rail Vision Ltd.
4.23
-6.30
-59.84%
Greenbrier Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Greenbrier Secures New Long-Term Leasing Credit Facilities
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Greenbrier and its Greenbrier Leasing Company subsidiary amended their existing credit facilities with Bank of America, including removing a SOFR adjustment on the main revolving facility and refinancing the leasing term loan. The ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.