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Greenbrier Companies (GBX)
NYSE:GBX
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Greenbrier
(NYSE:GBX)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$51.00
▲(10.34% Upside)
Greenbrier's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and a favorable valuation, supported by robust earnings call insights. Technical analysis presents mixed signals, with potential bearish momentum. The company's strategic initiatives and liquidity position provide confidence, despite challenges in order levels and European market activity.
Positive Factors
Operational Efficiency
Operational efficiency initiatives, such as rationalization and insourcing, enhance cost savings and improve long-term profitability, strengthening the company's competitive position.
Leasing and Fleet Management Growth
Significant growth in leasing and fleet management revenue indicates strong demand and effective utilization, contributing to stable cash flow and diversified income streams.
Strong Liquidity Position
A robust liquidity position with substantial cash reserves and renewed credit facilities enhances financial flexibility, supporting strategic investments and operational resilience.
Negative Factors
Challenging Order Levels
Reduced order levels and a declining backlog could pressure future production rates, impacting revenue growth and operational efficiency in the coming months.
Muted European Market Activity
Muted activity in the European market due to economic uncertainties may limit growth opportunities and revenue potential in this region, affecting overall market expansion.
Potential Production Adjustments
Necessary production adjustments in response to slower order activity may lead to inefficiencies and increased costs, impacting profit margins and operational stability.
Greenbrier (GBX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.40B
Dividend Yield2.73%
Average Volume (3M)275.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.4
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth0.71%
EPS Growth84.57%
CountryUS
Employees14,200
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.86
Shares Outstanding30,883,673
10 Day Avg. Volume310,776
30 Day Avg. Volume275,633
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$57.00Price Target Upside23.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
Greenbrier Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionThe Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and South America. It operates through three segments: Manufacturing; Wheels, Repair & Parts; and Leasing & Services. The Manufacturing segment offers conventional railcars, such as covered hopper cars, boxcars, center partition cars, and bulkhead flat cars; tank cars; double-stack intermodal railcars; auto-max and multi-max products for the transportation of light vehicles; pressurized tank cars, non-pressurized tank cars, flat cars, coil cars, gondolas, sliding wall cars, and automobile transporter cars; and marine vessels. The Wheels, Repair & Parts segment provides wheel services, including reconditioning of wheels and axles, new axle machining and finishing, and downsizing; operates a railcar repair, refurbishment, and maintenance network; and reconditions and manufactures railcar cushioning units, couplers, yokes, side frames, bolsters, and various other parts, as well as produces roofs, doors, and associated parts for boxcars. The Leasing & Services segment offers operating leases and 'per diem' leases for a fleet of approximately 8,800 railcars; and management services comprising railcar maintenance management, railcar accounting services, fleet management and logistics, administration, and railcar remarketing. This segment owns or provides management services to a fleet of approximately 444,000 railcars for railroads, shippers, carriers, institutional investors, and other leasing and transportation companies. The company serves railroads, leasing companies, financial institutions, shippers, carriers, and transportation companies. The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreenbrier generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of new railcars and the provision of railcar repair and refurbishment services. The company manufactures various types of railcars, which are sold to railroads and leasing companies, contributing significantly to its top line. In addition to new railcar sales, Greenbrier earns income from its aftermarket services, including maintenance, repair, and parts sales, which ensure ongoing revenue from its existing railcar fleet. Strategic partnerships with major railroads and leasing companies enhance its market presence and facilitate consistent orders. Additionally, Greenbrier's involvement in international markets allows it to tap into diverse revenue sources, benefiting from global demand for rail transportation solutions.
Greenbrier Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 01, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, operational efficiency, and robust liquidity. However, challenges in order levels and muted European market activity present potential concerns. Overall, the sentiment is cautiously optimistic with confidence in strategic execution and a positive market outlook.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Net earnings of $60.1 million or $1.86 per share increased sequentially and year-over-year. Aggregate gross margin stands at 18%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter at or above the mid-teens long-term target.
Operational Efficiency Initiatives
European footprint rationalization and North American insourcing project resulted in expected annual savings of at least $10 million. Production capacity in Europe remains largely unchanged, with potential for increase.
Leasing and Fleet Management Growth
Recurring revenue reached nearly $165 million over the last 4 quarters, representing nearly 50% growth from $113 million over 2 years ago. Fleet utilization remained high at 98%.
Strong Liquidity and Debt Management
Liquidity stands at nearly $770 million, with renewed bank facilities totaling $850 million. The balance sheet features more nonrecourse borrowings, supporting lease fleet growth.
Robust New Railcar Orders and Backlog
Orders of 3,900 units worth more than $500 million in the quarter. Global new railcar backlog remains healthy at nearly 19,000 units, providing industry-leading visibility.
Positive Market Outlook
Expectations of a strong finish to the fiscal year with optimism about market conditions in the medium to long term, driven by U.S. tax and trade policy certainty.
Negative Updates
Challenging Order Levels
Facing more challenged order levels for some time, with a backlog now at the lowest point since 2014, indicating potential pressure on future production rates.
Muted Activity in European Market
European railcar orders are driven by underlying necessity but will be muted until the economy's trajectory improves.
Potential Production Adjustments
Adjustments to production rates have been necessary due to slower order activity, reflecting ongoing market uncertainties.
Company Guidance
During the Greenbrier Companies' Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, several key metrics were highlighted, showcasing the company's strong financial performance and strategic initiatives. For the quarter ending May 31, 2025, Greenbrier reported net earnings of $60.1 million, or $1.86 per share, with an impressive aggregate gross margin of 18%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter at or above its mid-teens target. The company also achieved a return on invested capital (ROIC) within its long-term target range, reflecting efficient operational execution. Greenbrier's liquidity reached its highest level since 2023, with nearly $770 million, comprising $300 million in cash and $470 million in available borrowing capacity. The company delivered 5,600 new railcars in Q3, while its leasing and fleet management operation reported recurring revenue of nearly $165 million over the last four quarters, a 50% increase from its starting point. Additionally, Greenbrier's backlog stood at nearly 19,000 units, providing robust visibility into future revenue. The company also announced the renewal of $850 million in bank facilities and updated its fiscal 2025 guidance, raising aggregate gross margin and operating margin percent ranges.Greenbrier Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Greenbrier's financial performance is commendable with improved profitability and cash flow management. The company has enhanced operational margins and shareholder returns, though it faces challenges with a slight revenue decline and equity ratio optimization.Income Statement
Greenbrier's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) financial performance demonstrates a strong recovery and growth trajectory, with a notable increase in gross profit margin to 18.51% and net profit margin to 6.48%. The company has shown significant EBIT and EBITDA margin improvements, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. However, there is a slight decline in revenue compared to the prior year, which presents a potential risk.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects moderate financial stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.23, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity (ROE) has improved to 15.22%, signaling better profitability for shareholders. However, the equity ratio stands at 34.55%, which indicates room for enhancing asset-backed equity.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Greenbrier's cash flow performance is strong, with a positive transition in free cash flow to $76.2 million from a negative position, reflecting robust cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.57 indicates efficient cash utilization. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains below 1, suggesting potential areas for cash flow optimization.68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.53B | 3.54B | 3.94B | 2.98B | 1.75B | 2.79B |
| Gross Profit | 653.90M | 553.50M | 441.10M | 306.00M | 231.61M | 353.13M |
| EBITDA | 535.80M | 450.30M | 312.10M | 182.80M | 131.46M | 273.82M |
| Net Income | 228.90M | 160.10M | 62.50M | 46.90M | 32.40M | 84.63M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.35B | 4.25B | 3.98B | 3.85B | 3.39B | 3.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 296.80M | 368.60M | 281.70M | 543.00M | 646.77M | 833.75M |
| Total Debt | 1.85B | 1.82B | 1.61B | 1.57B | 1.20B | 1.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.64B | 2.68B | 2.51B | 2.39B | 1.88B | 1.67B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.50B | 1.38B | 1.25B | 1.28B | 1.31B | 1.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 76.20M | -68.70M | -290.90M | -531.10M | -179.54M | 205.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 359.30M | 329.60M | 71.20M | -150.40M | -40.52M | 272.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -193.60M | -320.40M | -280.00M | -224.00M | -117.76M | 27.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -89.30M | 86.20M | -76.20M | 244.90M | -22.74M | 216.46M |
Greenbrier Technical Analysis
Neutral
46.22
Price Trends
46.36
Negative
46.78
Negative
51.24
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.22
Positive
49.54
Neutral
31.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 46.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.27, below the 50-day MA of 46.36, and below the 200-day MA of 51.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GBX.
Greenbrier Risk Analysis
Greenbrier disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greenbrier reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Greenbrier Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | 291.86M | 8.32 | 20.89% | ― | -7.03% | 397.79% | |
74 Outperform | 33.62B | 29.03 | 10.67% | 0.48% | 3.38% | 17.21% | |
69 Neutral | $1.40B | 6.36 | 16.16% | 2.73% | 0.71% | 84.57% | |
64 Neutral | 2.27B | 24.19 | 9.56% | 4.21% | -22.95% | -40.67% | |
58 Neutral | 1.02B | 29.37 | 3.40% | 13.17% | 3.51% | -74.09% | |
44 Neutral | 181.52M | -11.05 | 12.34% | ― | -6.00% | -12.45% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GBX
Greenbrier
46.22
-3.49
-7.02%
RAIL
Freightcar America
9.49
-1.30
-12.05%
FSTR
L. B. Foster Company
26.71
6.28
30.74%
SFL
SFL Corporation
7.67
-2.65
-25.68%
TRN
Trinity Industries
28.04
-5.49
-16.37%
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies
196.67
15.78
8.72%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.