Greenbrier Companies (GBX)
NYSE:GBX
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Greenbrier
(NYSE:GBX)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$58.00
▲(15.26% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/10/26
The score is driven primarily by improving profitability and a sharp rebound in cash generation, supported by earnings-call guidance pointing to stronger H2 execution and strong liquidity. Offsetting these positives are the steep recent revenue decline and backlog weakness, a mixed technical picture, and a relatively expensive valuation (high P/E).
Positive Factors
Strong liquidity and cash generation
Record liquidity and renewed operating cash flow materially strengthen financial flexibility in a cyclical capital goods business. A >$1.0B liquidity buffer plus recent positive OCF reduces refinancing risk, supports capital deployment into leasing and manufacturing, and cushions earnings through down cycles.
Negative Factors
Lower backlog and near-term visibility
A materially reduced backlog weakens medium-term revenue visibility for a build-to-order manufacturer. With backlog at multi-year lows, production planning and margin stability become more reliant on new orders and timing, increasing cyclicality risk over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong liquidity and cash generation
Record liquidity and renewed operating cash flow materially strengthen financial flexibility in a cyclical capital goods business. A >$1.0B liquidity buffer plus recent positive OCF reduces refinancing risk, supports capital deployment into leasing and manufacturing, and cushions earnings through down cycles.
Read all positive factors
Greenbrier (GBX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.59B
Dividend Yield2.71%
Average Volume (3M)489.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.1
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth-8.66%
EPS Growth27.14%
CountryUS
Employees14,200
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.47
Shares Outstanding30,938,595
10 Day Avg. Volume853,423
30 Day Avg. Volume489,638
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.27
Price to Book (P/B)0.98
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio-101.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.23
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$47.33Price Target Upside-5.94% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)4.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.89B
Greenbrier Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and South America. It operates through three segments: Manufacturing; Wheels, Repair & Parts; and Leasing & Services. The Ma...
How the Company Makes Money
Greenbrier primarily makes money through three main revenue streams: (1) Manufacturing: selling newly built freight railcars and related railcar components to customers such as railroads, shippers, and leasing companies. Revenue in this stream is ...
Greenbrier Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveys a balanced message: near-term volume and margin pressure driven by timing and product mix led to lower deliveries and a significant year-over-year margin decline in Q2, and backlog sits at its lowest comparable level since 2014. Offsetting these headwinds are substantial strengths — record liquidity, strong operating cash flow, a resilient and high-utilization leasing platform, disciplined capital allocation (including a 6% dividend increase), and targeted cost and footprint actions expected to generate savings. Management reiterated confidence in market fundamentals, provided guidance with mid-cycle margin targets above the quarter level, and expects margins and deliveries to improve in H3–H4 as timing drifts resolve.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue and Profitability
Q2 revenue of $588 million; aggregate gross margin of 11.8%; earnings from operations of $25 million (4.3% of revenue); diluted EPS of $0.47; EBITDA of $61 million (10.3% of revenue).
Negative Updates
Sequential Revenue and Delivery Decline / Production Timing Shift
Deliveries and revenues were lower sequentially as production ramp-up shifted beyond the current fiscal year; management expects some deliveries to move into early fiscal 2027 due to customer decision timing.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue and Profitability
Q2 revenue of $588 million; aggregate gross margin of 11.8%; earnings from operations of $25 million (4.3% of revenue); diluted EPS of $0.47; EBITDA of $61 million (10.3% of revenue).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated fiscal 2026 guidance calling for new railcar deliveries of 15,350–16,350 units (including ~1,500 from Greenbrier‑Maxion Brazil), total revenue of $2.4–$2.5 billion, aggregate gross margin of 14.8%–15.2% and operating margin of 7.0%–7.8%, with SG&A expected to be reduced by about $30 million versus prior year and fiscal 2026 EPS forecast at $3.00–$3.50; cadence-wise Q3 is expected to be similar to Q2 in deliveries with modest sequential gross‑margin improvement and Q4 to see further sequential improvement, capex for manufacturing unchanged at $80 million, gross investment in Leasing & Fleet Management raised to roughly $300 million (from $205 million) with equipment‑sale proceeds forecast at ~$175 million and a year‑end lease fleet target of >20,000 cars, while some deliveries are being shifted into early fiscal 2027.Greenbrier Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Aug 2025 | Aug 2024 | Aug 2023 | Aug 2022 | Aug 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.89B | 3.23B | 3.54B | 3.94B | 2.98B | 1.75B |
| Gross Profit | 461.90M | 600.40M | 553.10M | 442.10M | 305.60M | 232.29M |
| EBITDA | 375.20M | 517.80M | 450.30M | 312.10M | 213.70M | 131.46M |
| Net Income | 146.10M | 204.10M | 160.10M | 62.50M | 46.90M | 32.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.34B | 4.36B | 4.25B | 3.98B | 3.85B | 3.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 521.80M | 326.40M | 351.80M | 302.70M | 559.10M | 671.40M |
| Total Debt | 1.84B | 1.84B | 2.17B | 1.68B | 1.62B | 1.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.62B | 2.63B | 2.68B | 2.51B | 2.39B | 1.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.56B | 1.53B | 1.38B | 1.25B | 1.28B | 1.31B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 224.70M | -14.70M | -65.80M | -284.10M | -527.60M | -174.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 466.30M | 265.70M | 332.50M | 78.00M | -146.90M | -35.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -101.20M | -203.10M | -323.30M | -286.80M | -227.50M | -123.11M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -112.20M | -101.70M | 86.20M | -76.20M | 244.90M | -22.74M |
Greenbrier Technical Analysis
Negative
50.32
Price Trends
53.74
Negative
50.66
Negative
48.16
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.53
Negative
44.09
Neutral
61.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 50.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.39, below the 50-day MA of 53.74, and above the 200-day MA of 48.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GBX.
Greenbrier Risk Analysis
Greenbrier disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greenbrier reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Greenbrier Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $43.80B | 31.11 | 10.77% | 0.46% | 4.40% | 14.60% | |
65 Neutral | $1.59B | 34.09 | 9.51% | 2.71% | -8.66% | 27.14% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $2.67B | 8.44 | 24.45% | 4.34% | -33.03% | -44.18% | |
59 Neutral | $309.02M | 28.35 | 4.34% | ― | -5.51% | -88.11% | |
54 Neutral | $172.04M | 9.24 | -40.20% | ― | -6.18% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $18.81M | -1.58 | -59.72% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
GBX
Greenbrier
50.32
9.71
23.90%
RAIL
Freightcar America
9.17
3.19
53.34%
FSTR
L. B. Foster Company
30.00
10.75
55.84%
TRN
Trinity Industries
32.95
8.98
37.44%
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies
263.37
97.14
58.43%
RVSN
Rail Vision Ltd.
8.36
-4.34
-34.15%
Greenbrier Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsShareholder Meetings
Greenbrier Boosts Dividend and Updates Governance Bylaws
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Greenbrier’s board approved amendments to its bylaws that clarify the presiding officer’s authority to adjourn shareholder meetings in specified situations and reset the advance notice window for shareholder proposal...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Greenbrier Completes $300 Million Railcar ABS Financing
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Greenbrier, through its indirect wholly owned special purpose subsidiary GBX Leasing 2022-1 LLC, completed a $300 million issuance of railcar asset-backed securities comprising Class A and Class B Notes. The Notes, backed by a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.