Greenbrier (GBX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.52B
• Dividend Yield: 2.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 421.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: -8.66%
• EPS Growth: 27.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,200
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 1.14
• Shares Outstanding: 30,886,164
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 652,335
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 421,765
• PEG Ratio: 0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.46
• P/FCF Ratio: -101.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.67
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.92
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.19
• 1Y Price Target: $46.33
• Price Target Upside: -6.91% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.94B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $58.00 ▲(16.54% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial fundamentals—stronger profitability but weakening revenue, high leverage, and volatile free cash flow. Offsetting this are strong technical momentum and supportive valuation (low P/E with a dividend), while the latest earnings call adds confidence through reiterated FY2026 guidance and strong liquidity despite near-term demand and operational uncertainty.

Positive Factors

Recurring Leasing Income

Near-maximum lease-fleet utilization and double-digit renewal gains create a durable, recurring revenue stream that cushions manufacturing cyclicality. High retention supports predictable cash flows, steadies revenue volatility, and underpins long-term earnings even if new-build demand lags.

Backlog and Order Momentum

A sizable, steady backlog (~16.3k units, ~$2.2B) and fresh orders improve near-term revenue visibility and production planning. This backlog smooths top-line timing risk, helps maintain utilization, and provides a runway for margin recovery as fixed-cost absorption improves over the next several quarters.

Strong Liquidity and Capital Discipline

Robust liquidity and available credit provide flexibility to navigate cyclical demand, fund opportunistic fleet investments, and sustain shareholder returns. Combined with targeted capex and selective buybacks/dividends, disciplined capital allocation reduces financial risk over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Top-line Contraction

Sharp revenue decline (TTM -27.1%) and consecutive annual falls raise the risk that current margin gains are unsustainable. If volumes remain depressed, fixed-cost absorption, margin mix, and pricing power could deteriorate, pressuring earnings and return targets over the coming quarters.

Elevated Leverage

Debt-to-equity around 1.2x–1.3x limits financial flexibility in a cyclical capital goods business. Higher leverage raises refinancing and covenant risk during downturns, constrains opportunistic investment, and could force more conservative payout or investment policies if cash flow weakens.

Volatile Free Cash Flow

Inconsistent and historically negative free cash flow reflects heavy investment and working-capital swings, reducing the company's ability to self-fund growth or cushions. Volatile FCF makes sustaining dividends, repurchases, or opportunistic fleet purchases riskier if revenue or lease receipts soften.

Greenbrier Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and South America. It operates through three segments: Manufacturing; Wheels, Repair & Parts; and Leasing & Services. The Manufacturing segment offers conventional railcars, such as covered hopper cars, boxcars, center partition cars, and bulkhead flat cars; tank cars; double-stack intermodal railcars; auto-max and multi-max products for the transportation of light vehicles; pressurized tank cars, non-pressurized tank cars, flat cars, coil cars, gondolas, sliding wall cars, and automobile transporter cars; and marine vessels. The Wheels, Repair & Parts segment provides wheel services, including reconditioning of wheels and axles, new axle machining and finishing, and downsizing; operates a railcar repair, refurbishment, and maintenance network; and reconditions and manufactures railcar cushioning units, couplers, yokes, side frames, bolsters, and various other parts, as well as produces roofs, doors, and associated parts for boxcars. The Leasing & Services segment offers operating leases and 'per diem' leases for a fleet of approximately 8,800 railcars; and management services comprising railcar maintenance management, railcar accounting services, fleet management and logistics, administration, and railcar remarketing. This segment owns or provides management services to a fleet of approximately 444,000 railcars for railroads, shippers, carriers, institutional investors, and other leasing and transportation companies. The company serves railroads, leasing companies, financial institutions, shippers, carriers, and transportation companies. The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

How the Company Makes Money

Greenbrier generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of new railcars and the provision of railcar repair and refurbishment services. The company manufactures various types of railcars, which are sold to railroads and leasing companies, contributing significantly to its top line. In addition to new railcar sales, Greenbrier earns income from its aftermarket services, including maintenance, repair, and parts sales, which ensure ongoing revenue from its existing railcar fleet. Strategic partnerships with major railroads and leasing companies enhance its market presence and facilitate consistent orders. Additionally, Greenbrier's involvement in international markets allows it to tap into diverse revenue sources, benefiting from global demand for rail transportation solutions.

Greenbrier Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Earnings and margins improved materially (net income up to $204.1M in 2025; EBIT margin ~12%), but revenue is contracting (TTM down 27.1%), leverage remains elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.2x–1.3x), and free cash flow has been volatile and often negative, limiting financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved materially versus earlier years, with annual net income rising from $62.5M (2023) to $160.1M (2024) and $204.1M (2025), alongside stronger operating profitability (EBIT margin ~12% in 2025 vs ~4% in 2022–2023). However, the top line is weakening: revenue declined in 2024 and 2025 (annual) and fell sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (-27.1%), which increases the risk that margins and earnings soften if volume/pricing pressure persists.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is a key constraint: debt relative to equity is consistently high (roughly 1.2x–1.3x in 2022–2025), which reduces financial flexibility in a cyclical industry. Offsetting that, equity has grown (from ~$1.25B in 2023 to ~$1.53B in 2025 annual), and returns on equity have improved meaningfully (about 13% in 2025 vs ~3%–5% in 2021–2023). Overall, the balance sheet is improving, but still levered.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is uneven. Operating cash flow recovered strongly in 2024–2025 (annual) and is solid in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) at ~$402M, but free cash flow has been inconsistent and often negative (2021–2024 and slightly negative in 2025 annual), suggesting heavy investment needs or working-capital swings. The very large negative TTM free-cash-flow growth figure also signals volatility, even though TTM free cash flow is positive at ~$123M.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.23B	3.54B	3.94B	2.98B	1.75B
Gross Profit	600.40M	553.10M	442.10M	305.60M	232.29M
EBITDA	517.80M	450.30M	312.10M	213.70M	131.46M
Net Income	204.10M	160.10M	62.50M	46.90M	32.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.36B	4.25B	3.98B	3.85B	3.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	326.40M	351.80M	302.70M	559.10M	671.40M
Total Debt	1.84B	2.17B	1.68B	1.62B	1.24B
Total Liabilities	2.63B	2.68B	2.51B	2.39B	1.88B
Stockholders Equity	1.53B	1.38B	1.25B	1.28B	1.31B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-14.70M	-65.80M	-284.10M	-527.60M	-174.19M
Operating Cash Flow	265.70M	332.50M	78.00M	-146.90M	-35.17M
Investing Cash Flow	-203.10M	-323.30M	-286.80M	-227.50M	-123.11M
Financing Cash Flow	-101.70M	86.20M	-76.20M	244.90M	-22.74M

Greenbrier Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 49.77
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.99, above the 50-day MA of 45.80, and above the 200-day MA of 45.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.98 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GBX.

Greenbrier Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WAB	79 Outperform	$39.25B	33.37	11.07%	0.46%	4.40%	14.60%
GBX	69 Neutral	$1.52B	8.53	12.54%	2.71%	-8.66%	27.14%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RAIL	62 Neutral	$221.70M	4.69	―	―	-6.18%	―
FSTR	57 Neutral	$301.09M	65.40	2.74%	―	-5.51%	-88.11%
TRN	57 Neutral	$2.19B	23.87	10.04%	4.34%	-33.03%	-44.18%
RVSN	42 Neutral	$18.80M	-0.86	-74.03%	―	―	―

Greenbrier Corporate Events

Greenbrier Shareholders Back Board, Compensation and Share Increase

On January 7, 2026, The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors elected five directors to staggered board terms, including confirming recent appointees Stevan B. Bobb and Jeffrey M. Songer, thereby reinforcing continuity and refreshed oversight at the board level. Shareholders also approved on an advisory basis the 2025 executive compensation program, endorsed amendments to the 2021 Stock Incentive Plan, authorized an increase in the number of authorized common shares through amended and restated articles of incorporation, and ratified KPMG LLP as independent auditor for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2026, collectively signaling broad investor support for Greenbrier’s governance, capital structure flexibility and financial reporting oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (GBX) stock is a Hold with a $56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenbrier stock, see the GBX Stock Forecast page.

Greenbrier Announces 46th Consecutive Quarterly Dividend

On October 23, 2025, The Greenbrier Companies announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share, marking its 46th consecutive quarterly dividend. This dividend will be paid on December 3, 2025, to stockholders of record as of November 12, 2025, reinforcing Greenbrier’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GBX) stock is a Hold with a $51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenbrier stock, see the GBX Stock Forecast page.