Greenbrier (GBX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.74B
• Dividend Yield: 2.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 357.96K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.73
• Revenue Growth: -8.66%
• EPS Growth: 27.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,200
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 1.14
• Shares Outstanding: 30,886,164
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 254,270
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 357,965
• PEG Ratio: 0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.46
• P/FCF Ratio: -101.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.85
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.08
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.93
• 1Y Price Target: $54.50
• Price Target Upside: -3.40% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.94B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $57.00 ▲(1.03% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is anchored by mixed financial fundamentals: improved profitability and returns, but pressured recent revenue trends, high leverage, and uneven free cash flow. Offsetting this, technicals are positive with the stock above major moving averages, valuation is compelling with a low P/E and a dividend, and the earnings call supported confidence via reiterated FY2026 guidance and strong liquidity despite demand uncertainty.

Positive Factors

Recurring leasing & diversified revenue

High lease utilization and strong renewals create a durable, recurring revenue stream that smooths cyclicality from new‑build orders. Recurring leasing cash flows support steady EBITDA, improve predictability for financing and underwriting of fleet investments over the medium term.

Improved profitability and margins

Material margin recovery and rising net income indicate better operational leverage and pricing mix, giving the company a margin cushion against volume weakness. Sustained higher margins enhance cash generation capacity and support ROIC targets over the next several quarters.

Strong liquidity and access to long-term financing

Successful long-dated ABS and high quarter liquidity (~$895M) show durable access to capital and investor confidence in fleet cash flows. This reduces refinancing risk, enables opportunistic fleet investments, and supports leasing expansion without immediate balance-sheet strain.

Negative Factors

Top-line contraction and demand uncertainty

A pronounced revenue decline raises the risk that recent margin gains are not sustainable if volumes remain weak. Prolonged demand weakness from freight and trade-policy uncertainty can compress manufacturing throughput, worsen absorption of fixed costs, and rebound slowly over multiple quarters.

Elevated leverage

Above‑average debt levels reduce financial flexibility in a cyclical capital‑goods business. Elevated leverage increases interest and covenant sensitivity, limiting ability to invest or buy back stock during downturns and making the company more reliant on steady leasing cash flows and external financing.

Inconsistent free cash flow

Volatile and sometimes negative free cash flow signals heavy capex, working-capital swings or fleet investments that can impair debt paydown and capital allocation. Persistent FCF variability raises refinancing and dividend sustainability concerns without sustained margin and volume recovery.

Greenbrier Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, and South America. It operates through three segments: Manufacturing; Wheels, Repair & Parts; and Leasing & Services. The Manufacturing segment offers conventional railcars, such as covered hopper cars, boxcars, center partition cars, and bulkhead flat cars; tank cars; double-stack intermodal railcars; auto-max and multi-max products for the transportation of light vehicles; pressurized tank cars, non-pressurized tank cars, flat cars, coil cars, gondolas, sliding wall cars, and automobile transporter cars; and marine vessels. The Wheels, Repair & Parts segment provides wheel services, including reconditioning of wheels and axles, new axle machining and finishing, and downsizing; operates a railcar repair, refurbishment, and maintenance network; and reconditions and manufactures railcar cushioning units, couplers, yokes, side frames, bolsters, and various other parts, as well as produces roofs, doors, and associated parts for boxcars. The Leasing & Services segment offers operating leases and 'per diem' leases for a fleet of approximately 8,800 railcars; and management services comprising railcar maintenance management, railcar accounting services, fleet management and logistics, administration, and railcar remarketing. This segment owns or provides management services to a fleet of approximately 444,000 railcars for railroads, shippers, carriers, institutional investors, and other leasing and transportation companies. The company serves railroads, leasing companies, financial institutions, shippers, carriers, and transportation companies. The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

How the Company Makes Money

Greenbrier generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of new railcars and the provision of railcar repair and refurbishment services. The company manufactures various types of railcars, which are sold to railroads and leasing companies, contributing significantly to its top line. In addition to new railcar sales, Greenbrier earns income from its aftermarket services, including maintenance, repair, and parts sales, which ensure ongoing revenue from its existing railcar fleet. Strategic partnerships with major railroads and leasing companies enhance its market presence and facilitate consistent orders. Additionally, Greenbrier's involvement in international markets allows it to tap into diverse revenue sources, benefiting from global demand for rail transportation solutions.

Greenbrier Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Earnings and operating margins improved materially (net income up through 2025; EBIT margin ~12% in 2025), but the recent revenue contraction (including sharp TTM decline) increases cyclical risk. Leverage remains elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.2x–1.3x), and cash-flow quality is mixed due to historically inconsistent and often negative free cash flow despite better operating cash flow.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved materially versus earlier years, with annual net income rising from $62.5M (2023) to $160.1M (2024) and $204.1M (2025), alongside stronger operating profitability (EBIT margin ~12% in 2025 vs ~4% in 2022–2023). However, the top line is weakening: revenue declined in 2024 and 2025 (annual) and fell sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (-27.1%), which increases the risk that margins and earnings soften if volume/pricing pressure persists.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is a key constraint: debt relative to equity is consistently high (roughly 1.2x–1.3x in 2022–2025), which reduces financial flexibility in a cyclical industry. Offsetting that, equity has grown (from ~$1.25B in 2023 to ~$1.53B in 2025 annual), and returns on equity have improved meaningfully (about 13% in 2025 vs ~3%–5% in 2021–2023). Overall, the balance sheet is improving, but still levered.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is uneven. Operating cash flow recovered strongly in 2024–2025 (annual) and is solid in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) at ~$402M, but free cash flow has been inconsistent and often negative (2021–2024 and slightly negative in 2025 annual), suggesting heavy investment needs or working-capital swings. The very large negative TTM free-cash-flow growth figure also signals volatility, even though TTM free cash flow is positive at ~$123M.

Breakdown	TTM	Aug 2025	Aug 2024	Aug 2023	Aug 2022	Aug 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.06B	3.23B	3.54B	3.94B	2.98B	1.75B
Gross Profit	531.30M	600.40M	553.10M	442.10M	305.60M	232.29M
EBITDA	465.70M	517.80M	450.30M	312.10M	213.70M	131.46M
Net Income	185.20M	204.10M	160.10M	62.50M	46.90M	32.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.30B	4.36B	4.25B	3.98B	3.85B	3.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	361.80M	326.40M	351.80M	302.70M	559.10M	671.40M
Total Debt	1.85B	1.84B	2.17B	1.68B	1.62B	1.24B
Total Liabilities	2.56B	2.63B	2.68B	2.51B	2.39B	1.88B
Stockholders Equity	1.54B	1.53B	1.38B	1.25B	1.28B	1.31B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	123.40M	-14.70M	-65.80M	-284.10M	-527.60M	-174.19M
Operating Cash Flow	402.20M	265.70M	332.50M	78.00M	-146.90M	-35.17M
Investing Cash Flow	-159.60M	-203.10M	-323.30M	-286.80M	-227.50M	-123.11M
Financing Cash Flow	-179.90M	-101.70M	86.20M	-76.20M	244.90M	-22.74M

Greenbrier Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 56.42
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 56.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.73, above the 50-day MA of 51.22, and above the 200-day MA of 46.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GBX.

Greenbrier Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WAB	77 Outperform	$45.01B	38.70	11.01%	0.46%	4.40%	14.60%
GBX	68 Neutral	$1.74B	9.79	12.54%	2.71%	-8.66%	27.14%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RAIL	62 Neutral	$263.86M	5.59	―	―	-6.18%	―
FSTR	57 Neutral	$319.38M	69.37	2.74%	―	-5.51%	-88.11%
TRN	56 Neutral	$2.73B	11.20	24.37%	4.34%	-33.03%	-44.18%
RVSN	40 Underperform	$18.50M	-0.67	-74.03%	―	―	―

Greenbrier Corporate Events

Greenbrier Completes $300 Million Railcar ABS Financing

On February 4, 2026, Greenbrier, through its indirect wholly owned special purpose subsidiary GBX Leasing 2022-1 LLC, completed a $300 million issuance of railcar asset-backed securities comprising Class A and Class B Notes. The Notes, backed by a portfolio of railcars and associated operating leases acquired from GBX Leasing entities, carry fixed interest rates with a blended coupon of 5.2%, long dated legal maturities with targeted amortization, S&P Global Ratings of “AA” and “A,” and are structured as non-recourse obligations of the issuer that will nonetheless be consolidated on Greenbrier’s balance sheet. Proceeds from the transaction, which was privately placed with qualified institutional and certain offshore investors, will be used for general corporate purposes, providing attractive long-term financing to support the continued growth of Greenbrier’s leasing business and its recurring revenue base, while signaling strong investor confidence in the performance, utilization and cash flow profile of the company’s railcar portfolios and manufacturing platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (GBX) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenbrier stock, see the GBX Stock Forecast page.

Greenbrier Shareholders Back Board, Compensation and Share Increase

On January 7, 2026, The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors elected five directors to staggered board terms, including confirming recent appointees Stevan B. Bobb and Jeffrey M. Songer, thereby reinforcing continuity and refreshed oversight at the board level. Shareholders also approved on an advisory basis the 2025 executive compensation program, endorsed amendments to the 2021 Stock Incentive Plan, authorized an increase in the number of authorized common shares through amended and restated articles of incorporation, and ratified KPMG LLP as independent auditor for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2026, collectively signaling broad investor support for Greenbrier’s governance, capital structure flexibility and financial reporting oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (GBX) stock is a Hold with a $56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenbrier stock, see the GBX Stock Forecast page.