Trinity Industries (TRN)
NYSE:TRN
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Trinity Industries
(NYSE:TRN)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(1.16% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/07/26
The score is held back mainly by high leverage and volatile cash flow/revenue trends in the financial statements. Offsetting factors include attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield) and supportive technical uptrend, while the earnings call adds a mixed outlook due to lower 2026 EPS guidance despite strong leasing metrics and liquidity.
Positive Factors
Leasing Platform Resilience
Consistently high utilization and strong renewal rates create durable, recurring cash flow from leasing. This reduces revenue cyclicality versus pure manufacturing, supports high leasing margins and provides predictable cash generation that underpins dividend and fleet reinvestment plans over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Very high leverage and a fleet LTV above typical corporate comfort limits reduce financial flexibility. In a weaker demand environment or with rising rates, refinancing risk and covenant strain increase, constraining capacity to invest organically or pursue opportunistic transactions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Leasing Platform Resilience
Consistently high utilization and strong renewal rates create durable, recurring cash flow from leasing. This reduces revenue cyclicality versus pure manufacturing, supports high leasing margins and provides predictable cash generation that underpins dividend and fleet reinvestment plans over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Trinity Industries (TRN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.76B
Dividend Yield4.34%
Average Volume (3M)659.07K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.4
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth-33.03%
EPS Growth-44.18%
CountryUS
Employees7,380
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.31
Shares Outstanding79,839,720
10 Day Avg. Volume548,872
30 Day Avg. Volume659,069
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)1.98
Price to Sales (P/S)0.99
P/FCF Ratio-4.91
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.12
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$34.00Price Target Upside-1.73% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.17B
Trinity Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trinity Industries, Inc. provides rail transportation products and services under the TrinityRail name in North America. It operates in two segments, Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group, and Rail Products Group. The Railcar Leasing and M...
How the Company Makes Money
Trinity Industries makes money primarily through two core activities: (1) railcar manufacturing/sales and (2) railcar leasing and related services. In manufacturing, Trinity generates revenue by designing and producing various types of freight rai...
Trinity Industries Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized resilient, high-return performance driven by the leasing platform, asset appreciation and strategic partnership actions that generated significant noncash gains and strong cash flow. These positives were balanced against meaningful volume-driven headwinds in manufacturing (Rail Products), a large year-over-year decline in deliveries, a one-time credit loss that pressured quarterly margins, elevated LTV after restructuring, and lower EPS guidance for 2026. Overall, management portrays confidence in the company’s structural strength, liquidity, and ability to generate value while acknowledging near-term demand and volume risks.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Earnings and ROE
Full year 2025 EPS of $3.14, up 73% year-over-year; adjusted return on equity of 24.4%, up 67% from the prior year (average adjusted ROE of 19.5% over first two years of the 3-year plan).
Negative Updates
Significant Decline in Rail Products Deliveries
Rail Products deliveries declined 46% year-over-year in 2025, leading to lower full-year revenues ($2.2B for 2025; Q4 revenue $611M) and pressure on manufacturing revenue.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Earnings and ROE
Full year 2025 EPS of $3.14, up 73% year-over-year; adjusted return on equity of 24.4%, up 67% from the prior year (average adjusted ROE of 19.5% over first two years of the 3-year plan).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Trinity guided 2026 EPS of $1.85–$2.10 on an industry delivery outlook of ~25,000 railcars (with the company planning to maintain its historical ~30–40% market share), and expects net lease fleet investment of $450–$550M; segment targets include Leasing & Services margins of 40–45% (including gains) and Rail Products margins of 5–6%, with $120–$140M of anticipated secondary‑market gains, operating & administrative capex of $55–$65M, a full‑year tax rate of ~25–27%, slightly lower SG&A, and continued portfolio simplification (remaining partially owned cars targeted for contribution in Q2). For context, Trinity finished 2025 with 101,000 railcars on its balance sheet (45,000 under management), carrying cost of $6.3B with estimated market value 35–45% above carrying value, liquidity of $1.1B, a wholly‑owned fleet LTV of 70.2%, Q4 utilization of 97.1%, Q4 renewal success of 73% (renewal rates ~27–29% above expiries, FLRD ~6%), and 2025 metrics including EPS $3.14 (Q4 $2.31, ~+$1.50 from the RIV restructuring), cash flow from operations $367M, net lease fleet investment $350M, and $170M returned to shareholders while the quarterly dividend was raised to $0.31.Trinity Industries Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.16B | 3.08B | 2.98B | 1.98B | 1.52B |
| Gross Profit | 572.70M | 668.20M | 527.10M | 367.70M | 354.50M |
| EBITDA | 954.70M | 789.10M | 707.70M | 612.00M | 512.30M |
| Net Income | 253.10M | 138.40M | 106.00M | 60.10M | 182.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.42B | 8.83B | 8.91B | 8.72B | 8.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 201.30M | 374.40M | 235.10M | 294.30M | 302.40M |
| Total Debt | 5.44B | 5.80B | 5.87B | 5.72B | 5.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.28B | 7.53B | 7.63B | 7.45B | 6.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.08B | 1.06B | 1.04B | 1.01B | 1.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -435.20M | -21.90M | -414.50M | -979.60M | 41.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 359.70M | 573.80M | 295.60M | -12.80M | 611.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -385.60M | -214.60M | -363.00M | -260.70M | 276.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -24.90M | -219.90M | 8.20M | 265.40M | -814.10M |
Trinity Industries Technical Analysis
Positive
34.60
Price Trends
32.07
Positive
29.59
Positive
28.24
Positive
Market Momentum
0.61
Negative
67.56
Neutral
97.17
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.60, above the 50-day MA of 32.07, and above the 200-day MA of 28.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TRN.
Trinity Industries Risk Analysis
Trinity Industries disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trinity Industries reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Trinity Industries Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $45.58B | 31.11 | 10.77% | 0.46% | 4.40% | 14.60% | |
65 Neutral | $1.95B | 18.58 | 8.00% | ― | 5.72% | 47.75% | |
65 Neutral | $1.61B | 34.09 | 9.51% | 2.71% | -8.66% | 27.14% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $2.76B | 8.44 | 24.45% | 4.34% | -33.03% | -44.18% | |
59 Neutral | $309.22M | 28.35 | 2.74% | ― | -5.51% | -88.11% | |
53 Neutral | $171.28M | 9.24 | -40.20% | ― | -6.18% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
TRN
Trinity Industries
34.60
10.16
41.56%
CXW
CoreCivic
19.92
-1.59
-7.39%
RAIL
Freightcar America
8.98
3.86
75.39%
GBX
Greenbrier
52.15
12.42
31.26%
FSTR
L. B. Foster Company
30.00
10.08
50.60%
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies
267.28
94.86
55.01%
Trinity Industries Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Trinity Industries Issues Secured Green Railcar Notes Offering
Positive
Apr 6, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Trinity Industries subsidiaries Trinity Industries Leasing Company and Trinity Rail Leasing 2025 LLC entered into a Note Purchase Agreement with a syndicate of investment banks to issue $480.8 million of secured green standard ra...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Trinity Industries Announces Executive Leadership Transition in Leasing
Neutral
Feb 17, 2026
On February 13, 2026, Trinity Industries announced that Gregory B. Mitchell, its Executive Vice President, Leasing and Services, had informed the company of his intention to transition to retirement, effective October 15, 2026. As part of this pla...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Trinity Industries Reports Strong 2025 Results, Sets 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Trinity Industries reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 12, 2026, posting full-year earnings from continuing operations of $3.14 per diluted share and revenue of $2.2 billion, despite lower external railcar deliveries. Th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.