Trinity Industries (TRN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.81B
• Dividend Yield: 4.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 926.37K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: -33.03%
• EPS Growth: -44.18%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,380
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 2.31
• Shares Outstanding: 79,839,720
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 707,871
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 926,366
• PEG Ratio: 0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.99
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.15
• 1Y Price Target: $33.50
• Price Target Upside: -4.75% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.6
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.17B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(2.36% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/17/26

The score is primarily held back by elevated leverage and volatile/uncertain fundamentals (including a sharp reported revenue drop), despite improved profitability and generally positive operating cash flow. Technicals show an uptrend but appear overbought, while valuation (low P/E and ~3.45% yield) and the earnings call’s strong leasing metrics/loss-absorbing liquidity partly offset the risks, tempered by lower 2026 EPS guidance.

Positive Factors

High lease fleet utilization & renewal success

Sustained 97% utilization and strong renewal rates create predictable, recurring lease cash flows that support stable operating margins and debt service. Over months, high utilization reduces idle-asset risk, underpins fee income growth and reinforces the leasing platform's resilience.

Embedded asset value and partnership restructuring

Realized noncash gains and estimated market values well above book provide a structural cushion versus book impairment risk and create monetization optionality. The partnership restructuring clarifies economics and increases balance-sheet optionality for portfolio sales or refinancing over the medium term.

Consistent cash generation and shareholder returns

Meaningful operating cash flow and repeated capital returns indicate durable cash-generation capacity and disciplined capital allocation. This supports dividends, selective fleet reinvestment and share repurchases while signaling management prioritizes shareholder distributions and liquidity maintenance.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and high fleet LTV

Very high debt relative to equity and a ~70% fleet LTV materially reduce financial flexibility and heighten refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. In a cyclical industry, elevated leverage constrains the company's ability to absorb weaker demand or fund net fleet investment without increasing financing risk.

Sharp top-line volatility and manufacturing delivery decline

Large swings in revenue and a steep drop in product deliveries reflect cyclicality and reduce revenue visibility. Persistent lower volumes pressure manufacturing throughput, drive idling costs and expose the company to pricing and competitive stress across the rail-products cycle over the coming months.

Volatile and frequently negative free cash flow historically

Inconsistent FCF and prior negative periods signal heavy reinvestment needs and working-capital swings that can force reliance on external financing. That unpredictability weakens the firm's ability to de-lever or fund fleet growth without pressuring liquidity in a mid-term downturn.

Trinity Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Trinity Industries, Inc. provides rail transportation products and services under the TrinityRail name in North America. It operates in two segments, Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group, and Rail Products Group. The Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group segment leases freight and tank railcars; originates and manages railcar leases for third-party investors; and provides fleet maintenance and management services. As of December 31, 2021, it had a fleet of 106,970 owned or leased railcars. This segment serves industrial shipper and railroad companies operating in agriculture, construction and metals, consumer products, energy, and refined products and chemicals markets. The Rail Products Group segment manufactures freight and tank railcars for transporting various liquids, gases, and dry cargo; and offers railcar maintenance and modification services. This segment serves railroads, leasing companies, and industrial shippers of products in the agriculture, construction and metals, consumer products, energy, and refined products and chemicals markets. It sells or leases products and services through its own sales personnel and independent sales representatives. Trinity Industries, Inc. was incorporated in 1933 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Trinity Industries generates revenue primarily through the sale and leasing of railcars, which is its largest revenue stream. The Rail Group not only manufactures railcars but also offers leasing services, providing a steady income stream from long-term leases. Additionally, the company earns money through the sale of railcar parts and repair services. The Construction Products Group contributes to earnings through the sale of safety products, such as guardrails and crash cushions, as well as concrete products for construction projects. Key partnerships with rail operators, construction firms, and energy companies bolster Trinity's market presence and can lead to long-term contracts, enhancing revenue stability. Economic trends in the transportation and construction sectors significantly influence the company’s earnings, as demand for railcars and construction products is closely tied to infrastructure spending and energy production activities.

Trinity Industries Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability has improved versus 2020 and operating cash flow is generally positive, but balance-sheet leverage is a major constraint (very high debt vs. equity) and free cash flow has been volatile. The sharp reported revenue decline and inconsistency in margins vs. net income increase sustainability and data-quality risk.

Income Statement

Profitability improved materially from the 2020 loss to solid positive earnings in 2021–2024, with gross margin generally trending higher through 2024. However, the latest annual period shows a very sharp revenue decline (down ~84% year over year), and reported net margin appears inconsistent versus net income (suggesting one-time items or data-quality noise). Overall, earnings power looks improved versus the earlier cycle, but the recent top-line volatility meaningfully increases risk.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated, with total debt around $5.4–$5.9B versus equity near ~$1.0–$1.1B in recent years (very high debt relative to the equity base). While assets are stable around ~$8.4–$8.9B and equity has held relatively steady, the capital structure leaves less flexibility if railcar demand weakens or rates stay higher. Balance-sheet strength is the key constraint versus peers with lower leverage.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is generally positive and meaningful in most years (notably 2020–2021 and 2024–2025), supporting debt service capacity. That said, free cash flow has been volatile and frequently negative (large outflows in 2022–2023 and slightly negative in 2024), pointing to heavy reinvestment needs and/or working-capital swings. The latest year shows strong free cash flow, but the multi-year pattern is uneven.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.16B	3.08B	2.98B	1.98B	1.52B
Gross Profit	572.70M	668.20M	527.10M	367.70M	354.50M
EBITDA	954.70M	789.10M	707.70M	612.00M	512.30M
Net Income	253.10M	138.40M	106.00M	60.10M	182.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.42B	8.83B	8.91B	8.72B	8.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	201.30M	374.40M	235.10M	294.30M	302.40M
Total Debt	5.44B	5.80B	5.87B	5.72B	5.28B
Total Liabilities	7.28B	7.53B	7.63B	7.45B	6.94B
Stockholders Equity	1.08B	1.06B	1.04B	1.01B	1.03B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-435.20M	-21.90M	-414.50M	-979.60M	41.00M
Operating Cash Flow	359.70M	573.80M	295.60M	-12.80M	611.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-385.60M	-214.60M	-363.00M	-260.70M	276.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-24.90M	-219.90M	8.20M	265.40M	-814.10M

Trinity Industries Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 35.17
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.66, above the 50-day MA of 29.22, and above the 200-day MA of 27.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.94 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.37 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TRN.

Trinity Industries Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WAB	77 Outperform	$45.10B	38.55	11.01%	0.46%	4.40%	14.60%
GBX	68 Neutral	$1.82B	10.10	12.54%	2.71%	-8.66%	27.14%
CXW	65 Neutral	$1.61B	15.19	8.04%	―	5.72%	47.75%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RAIL	62 Neutral	$273.40M	5.79	―	―	-6.18%	―
FSTR	57 Neutral	$324.37M	70.45	2.74%	―	-5.51%	-88.11%
TRN	56 Neutral	$2.81B	11.33	24.37%	4.34%	-33.03%	-44.18%

Trinity Industries Corporate Events

Trinity Industries Reports Strong 2025 Results, Sets 2026 Outlook

Trinity Industries reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 12, 2026, posting full-year earnings from continuing operations of $3.14 per diluted share and revenue of $2.2 billion, despite lower external railcar deliveries. The company generated $367 million in operating cash flow, recorded $91 million in net gains from lease portfolio sales and a $194 million non-cash gain from a railcar partnership restructuring, maintained lease fleet utilization at 97.1% with a positive 6.0% FLRD, and ended 2025 with a $1.7 billion backlog after delivering 9,500 railcars, while issuing 2026 EPS guidance of $1.85 to $2.10 alongside plans for substantial net fleet investment and continued secondary market portfolio monetization.

Management highlighted that 2025 EPS improved by $1.33 year over year, supported by higher lease rates, lower administrative costs, and stronger performance in the Railcar Leasing and Services Group, where revenues rose 6% on repricing and net fleet growth. The Rail Products Group achieved a 5.2% full-year operating margin despite a 46% decline in deliveries, underscoring a more resilient operating platform as Trinity targets stable margins, resilient earnings, and strong cash flow through disciplined lease pricing, active portfolio management, and balanced capital deployment in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRN) stock is a Hold with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trinity Industries stock, see the TRN Stock Forecast page.

Trinity Industries Raises 2025 EPS Outlook After Restructuring

On December 30, 2025, Trinity Industries Leasing Company, a subsidiary of Trinity Industries, completed a strategic restructuring of its railcar investment partnerships with alternative credit manager Napier Park, exchanging most of its stake in Triumph Rail Holdings for Napier Park’s majority interest in RIV 2013 Rail Holdings. Following the transactions, Trinity obtained 100% ownership of RIV 2013 and its subsidiary TRP 2021, while retaining only 0.2% of Triumph, and Napier Park took 99.8% control of Triumph, with the joint venture structure in TRIP Rail Holdings and its Tribute Rail subsidiary remaining in place. As a result, Triumph will no longer be consolidated in Trinity’s financial statements, while RIV 2013 will remain fully consolidated without a noncontrolling interest adjustment, and Trinity preliminarily expects to record a non‑cash pre‑tax gain of about $190 million in the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The company said the gain underscores the market value of its leased railcar fleet above book value and the long‑term appreciation of rail assets, and on January 6, 2026 it raised its full‑year 2025 earnings‑per‑share guidance to a range of $3.05 to $3.20, citing an anticipated EPS impact of $1.50 from the restructuring, which also reinforces its long‑standing capital partnership with Napier Park and its positioning of railcars as attractive assets for private investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRN) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trinity Industries stock, see the TRN Stock Forecast page.