Trinity Industries (TRN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.31B
• Dividend Yield: 4.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 563.98K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: -33.03%
• EPS Growth: -44.18%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,380
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 80,180,530
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 459,065
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 563,981
• PEG Ratio: 0.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.93
• P/FCF Ratio: -131.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.57
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.42
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.66
• 1Y Price Target: $27.00
• Price Target Upside: -8.07% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $28.00 ▼(-4.66% Downside)

The score is primarily held back by financial fundamentals—declining revenue, high leverage, and sharply weaker free cash flow—despite strong operating margins. Earnings call updates and corporate actions were constructive (raised guidance and strong leasing utilization/renewals), but weak technical momentum and only moderate valuation (P/E 23.2, partly offset by a 4.5% yield) keep the overall score in the high-50s.

Positive Factors

Operating margin strength

Sustainably high gross and EBIT margins indicate durable operational discipline and pricing power across segments. Strong margins help absorb cyclical volume declines, support profitability from leasing and services, and provide margin headroom to fund SG&A savings and capital allocation over months.

High leasing utilization and renewals

Very high fleet utilization and above-market renewal rates reflect sticky, recurring leasing cash flows and strong customer relationships. This durable leasing revenue base smooths earnings volatility versus railcar manufacturing, supporting predictable cash generation and dividend/buyback capacity over the next several quarters.

Strategic partnership restructuring

The Napier Park restructuring simplifies joint-venture ownership, crystallizes intrinsic value of the lease fleet via a non-cash gain, and materially boosts reported EPS guidance. Structurally this enhances capital flexibility and reduces partnership complexity, improving long-term balance sheet and earnings clarity.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue trends

Sustained revenue contraction signals weakened demand for rail products and lower deliveries, pressuring top-line sustainability. Over 2–6 months this reduces operating leverage, limits organic growth, and forces reliance on leasing or one-time gains to sustain earnings and cash generation.

High financial leverage

Very high leverage materially raises refinancing and interest rate risk in a cyclical industry. Elevated debt restricts capital allocation flexibility for capex, deleveraging, or shareholder returns, and increases vulnerability to demand downturns over the medium term, stressing financial resilience.

Severe free cash flow deterioration

A near-90% fall in FCF growth undermines the company’s ability to self-fund operations, service debt, and maintain buybacks/dividends. Even with positive operating cash relative to net income, severely weakening FCF constrains capital flexibility and increases reliance on financing or asset sales in the coming months.

Trinity Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Trinity Industries, Inc. provides rail transportation products and services under the TrinityRail name in North America. It operates in two segments, Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group, and Rail Products Group. The Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group segment leases freight and tank railcars; originates and manages railcar leases for third-party investors; and provides fleet maintenance and management services. As of December 31, 2021, it had a fleet of 106,970 owned or leased railcars. This segment serves industrial shipper and railroad companies operating in agriculture, construction and metals, consumer products, energy, and refined products and chemicals markets. The Rail Products Group segment manufactures freight and tank railcars for transporting various liquids, gases, and dry cargo; and offers railcar maintenance and modification services. This segment serves railroads, leasing companies, and industrial shippers of products in the agriculture, construction and metals, consumer products, energy, and refined products and chemicals markets. It sells or leases products and services through its own sales personnel and independent sales representatives. Trinity Industries, Inc. was incorporated in 1933 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Trinity Industries generates revenue primarily through the sale and leasing of railcars, which is its largest revenue stream. The Rail Group not only manufactures railcars but also offers leasing services, providing a steady income stream from long-term leases. Additionally, the company earns money through the sale of railcar parts and repair services. The Construction Products Group contributes to earnings through the sale of safety products, such as guardrails and crash cushions, as well as concrete products for construction projects. Key partnerships with rail operators, construction firms, and energy companies bolster Trinity's market presence and can lead to long-term contracts, enhancing revenue stability. Economic trends in the transportation and construction sectors significantly influence the company’s earnings, as demand for railcars and construction products is closely tied to infrastructure spending and energy production activities.

Trinity Industries Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Trinity Industries faces financial challenges with declining revenue growth and high leverage. Despite strong gross and EBIT margins, cash flow issues and a high debt-to-equity ratio are concerning.

Income Statement

Trinity Industries shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 13.68%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 26.30% and an EBIT margin of 19.70%, indicating strong operational efficiency. The net profit margin is modest at 4.39%, reflecting some profitability challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.75, which poses a risk in terms of financial stability. Return on equity is relatively low at 8.73%, suggesting limited profitability from shareholders' investments. The equity ratio stands at 14.00%, indicating a low proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis highlights significant challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -90.76% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.52, showing adequate cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.06 indicates cash flow issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.18B	3.08B	2.98B	1.98B	1.52B	1.75B
Gross Profit	572.00M	668.20M	527.10M	367.70M	354.50M	422.30M
EBITDA	651.60M	789.10M	707.70M	612.00M	512.30M	-55.10M
Net Income	95.40M	138.40M	106.00M	60.10M	182.00M	-147.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.93B	8.83B	8.91B	8.72B	8.24B	8.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	238.70M	374.40M	235.10M	294.30M	302.40M	228.40M
Total Debt	5.94B	5.80B	5.87B	5.72B	5.28B	5.11B
Total Liabilities	7.68B	7.53B	7.63B	7.45B	6.94B	6.69B
Stockholders Equity	1.00B	1.06B	1.04B	1.01B	1.03B	1.74B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-396.40M	-21.90M	-414.50M	-979.60M	41.00M	-46.40M
Operating Cash Flow	383.90M	573.80M	295.60M	-12.80M	611.80M	651.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-509.30M	-214.60M	-363.00M	-260.70M	276.30M	-532.90M
Financing Cash Flow	31.70M	-219.90M	8.20M	265.40M	-814.10M	-168.00M

Trinity Industries Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 29.37
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.00, above the 50-day MA of 27.00, and above the 200-day MA of 26.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.29 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TRN.

Trinity Industries Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WAB	79 Outperform	$37.03B	32.33	11.07%	0.46%	4.40%	14.60%
CXW	73 Outperform	$1.98B	19.67	7.41%	―	5.72%	47.75%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RAIL	62 Neutral	$205.86M	4.57	―	―	-6.18%	―
GBX	60 Neutral	$1.57B	9.25	14.03%	2.71%	-8.66%	27.14%
TRN	57 Neutral	$2.31B	25.63	10.04%	4.34%	-33.03%	-44.18%
FSTR	57 Neutral	$286.54M	64.18	2.74%	―	-5.51%	-88.11%

Trinity Industries Corporate Events

Trinity Industries Raises 2025 EPS Outlook After Restructuring

On December 30, 2025, Trinity Industries Leasing Company, a subsidiary of Trinity Industries, completed a strategic restructuring of its railcar investment partnerships with alternative credit manager Napier Park, exchanging most of its stake in Triumph Rail Holdings for Napier Park’s majority interest in RIV 2013 Rail Holdings. Following the transactions, Trinity obtained 100% ownership of RIV 2013 and its subsidiary TRP 2021, while retaining only 0.2% of Triumph, and Napier Park took 99.8% control of Triumph, with the joint venture structure in TRIP Rail Holdings and its Tribute Rail subsidiary remaining in place. As a result, Triumph will no longer be consolidated in Trinity’s financial statements, while RIV 2013 will remain fully consolidated without a noncontrolling interest adjustment, and Trinity preliminarily expects to record a non‑cash pre‑tax gain of about $190 million in the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The company said the gain underscores the market value of its leased railcar fleet above book value and the long‑term appreciation of rail assets, and on January 6, 2026 it raised its full‑year 2025 earnings‑per‑share guidance to a range of $3.05 to $3.20, citing an anticipated EPS impact of $1.50 from the restructuring, which also reinforces its long‑standing capital partnership with Napier Park and its positioning of railcars as attractive assets for private investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRN) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trinity Industries stock, see the TRN Stock Forecast page.

Trinity Industries Reports Strong Q3 2025 Earnings

Trinity Industries announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results, reporting earnings of $0.38 per diluted share from continuing operations and generating $187 million in year-to-date operating cash flow. The company delivered 1,680 railcars during the quarter and maintained a lease fleet utilization of 96.8%. Trinity’s CEO highlighted the company’s strong performance across all segments, particularly in the Railcar Leasing and Services segment, which benefited from favorable market conditions. The company also reported a backlog of $1.8 billion and raised its full-year EPS guidance to a range of $1.55 to $1.70, reflecting sustained margin strength and success in the secondary market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRN) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trinity Industries stock, see the TRN Stock Forecast page.

Trinity Industries Secures $535M Green Railcar Notes

On October 15, 2025, Trinity Industries‘ subsidiaries, Trinity Industries Leasing Company and Trinity Rail Leasing 2025 LLC, entered into a Note Purchase Agreement with several financial institutions for the issuance and sale of secured green standard railcar notes totaling approximately $535 million. This transaction, part of an asset-backed securitization, is expected to close on or about October 28, 2025, and involves the purchase of approximately 7,821 railcars. The agreement includes customary representations, warranties, and indemnity provisions, highlighting the company’s strategic focus on sustainable finance and its potential impact on stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRN) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trinity Industries stock, see the TRN Stock Forecast page.