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Trinity Industries
(NYSE:TRN)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$32.00
▼(-14.46% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
TRN’s score is held back primarily by high leverage and weak free-cash-flow generation despite solid reported profitability. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and strong dividend yield), and the latest earnings call was supportive due to raised guidance and strong leasing fundamentals, but technical trends remain weak with the stock trading below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
High leasing utilization & pricing
Sustained high utilization, above-expiring renewal rates and very strong leasing margins underpin durable, contract-like recurring revenue. That structural leasing strength provides predictable cash flow and pricing power versus cyclical manufacturing, supporting earnings resilience across freight cycles.
Negative Factors
High financial leverage
About 5x debt-to-equity in a capital‑intensive, cyclical industry materially increases interest and refinancing risk. High leverage reduces strategic optionality, magnifies earnings volatility in downturns and tightens covenant sensitivity, making capital allocation and deleveraging critical for stability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High leasing utilization & pricing
Sustained high utilization, above-expiring renewal rates and very strong leasing margins underpin durable, contract-like recurring revenue. That structural leasing strength provides predictable cash flow and pricing power versus cyclical manufacturing, supporting earnings resilience across freight cycles.
Read all positive factors
Trinity Industries Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Shows how much profit each business line generates after core operating costs, revealing which segments drive Trinity’s earnings and which may be under pressure. Helpful for spotting high‑margin areas like leasing or aftermarket services versus cyclical, capital‑intensive manufacturing that can swing with railcar orders.
Shows how much profit each business line generates after core operating costs, revealing which segments drive Trinity’s earnings and which may be under pressure. Helpful for spotting high‑margin areas like leasing or aftermarket services versus cyclical, capital‑intensive manufacturing that can swing with railcar orders.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTrinity Industries (TRN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.73B
Dividend Yield3.94%
Average Volume (3M)759.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.3
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth-18.95%
EPS Growth260.48%
CountryUS
Employees6,110
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.30
Shares Outstanding79,505,500
10 Day Avg. Volume667,594
30 Day Avg. Volume759,629
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)1.98
Price to Sales (P/S)0.99
P/FCF Ratio-4.91
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$34.00Price Target Upside-9.12% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.07B
Trinity Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trinity Industries, Inc. operates in North America, providing railway transportation solutions under its TrinityRail brand. The company is organized into two main divisions: Railcar Leasing and Management Services, and Rail Products. The Railcar L...
How the Company Makes Money
Trinity Industries primarily makes money through a combination of (1) leasing railroad freight cars and (2) selling/manufacturing railcars and related products, supported by (3) parts and components sales and (4) services tied to managing railcar ...
Trinity Industries Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed predominantly positive operational and financial progress: strong margin expansion, high fleet utilization, significant cash generation, improved returns and an upgraded full-year EPS outlook driven in part by a sizeable noncash partnership gain. Notable risks include a 16% revenue decline, lower consolidated owned fleet, lumpy portfolio-sale gains, manufacturing volume weakness and external pressures from inflation and tariff uncertainty. On balance, strengths (margin, cash, guidance raise, strategic portfolio transaction and leasing momentum) outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
EPS Growth Despite Revenue Decline
GAAP EPS from continuing operations grew 10% year-over-year to $0.32 in Q1 while revenue declined 16% YoY to $492 million, demonstrating operating leverage.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline and Fleet Consolidation
Total revenue decreased 16% YoY in Q1 partly due to a prior railcar partnership exchange that reduced the consolidated owned fleet; wholly owned fleet ended Q1 at 101,960 railcars, down about 7% YoY.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
EPS Growth Despite Revenue Decline
GAAP EPS from continuing operations grew 10% year-over-year to $0.32 in Q1 while revenue declined 16% YoY to $492 million, demonstrating operating leverage.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Trinity raised and tightened 2026 guidance, increasing full‑year EPS to $2.20–$2.40 (from $1.85–$2.10; ~16% higher at the midpoint) and now expects full‑year gains on portfolio sales of $160–$180M (including $22M in Q1 and an ~ $130M non‑cash pre‑tax gain from the Napier Park transaction to be recorded in Q2); it updated cash metrics to net lease fleet investment of $350–$450M (cash metric, excluding the Napier Park RIV sale) and operating & administrative capex of $55–$65M, assumes ~25,000 industry deliveries in 2026 with Trinity’s share in its historical 30–40% range, and reiterated Rail Products full‑year margins of ~5–6%; key Q1 operating and balance‑sheet markers cited in support include Q1 GAAP EPS from continuing ops of $0.32, revenue $492M, cash from continuing ops $100M, Q1 net fleet investment $68M, $83M proceeds and $22M gain from lease portfolio sales, 97.3% fleet utilization, renewal rates 6.6% above expiring, a positive FLRD of 1.2% (19 consecutive quarters), Rail Products backlog of $1.6B, liquidity of $1.1B, and a wholly‑owned fleet LTV of 69.1% (shareholder returns were $32M in Q1).Trinity Industries Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.04B | 2.16B | 3.08B | 2.98B | 1.98B | 1.52B |
| Gross Profit | 531.90M | 572.70M | 668.20M | 527.10M | 367.70M | 354.50M |
| EBITDA | 1.04B | 954.70M | 789.10M | 707.70M | 612.00M | 512.30M |
| Net Income | 343.30M | 253.10M | 138.40M | 106.00M | 60.10M | 182.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.23B | 8.42B | 8.83B | 8.91B | 8.72B | 8.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 155.70M | 201.30M | 374.40M | 235.10M | 294.30M | 302.40M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 5.44B | 5.80B | 5.87B | 5.72B | 5.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.08B | 7.28B | 7.53B | 7.63B | 7.45B | 6.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.15B | 1.08B | 1.06B | 1.04B | 1.01B | 1.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -87.30M | -435.20M | -21.90M | -414.50M | -979.60M | 41.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 394.00M | 359.70M | 573.80M | 295.60M | -12.80M | 611.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -310.70M | -385.60M | -214.60M | -363.00M | -260.70M | 276.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -115.80M | -24.90M | -219.90M | 8.20M | 265.40M | -814.10M |
Trinity Industries Technical Analysis
Negative
37.41
Price Trends
34.45
Negative
33.40
Negative
30.71
Positive
Market Momentum
0.76
Negative
62.37
Neutral
64.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.77, above the 50-day MA of 34.45, and above the 200-day MA of 30.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TRN.
Trinity Industries Risk Analysis
Trinity Industries disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trinity Industries reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Trinity Industries Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $49.40B | 39.04 | 11.36% | 0.37% | 13.43% | 10.75% | |
69 Neutral | $2.95B | 24.51 | 9.00% | ― | 19.89% | 62.08% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $430.79M | 37.73 | 6.39% | ― | 11.73% | -68.10% | |
59 Neutral | $1.52B | 14.23 | 6.57% | 2.53% | -25.64% | -52.74% | |
58 Neutral | $2.73B | 7.27 | 31.91% | 3.29% | -18.95% | 260.48% | |
57 Neutral | $261.22M | 8.86 | -33.78% | ― | -4.92% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
TRN
Trinity Industries
31.24
8.02
34.53%
CXW
CoreCivic
29.90
10.29
52.47%
RAIL
Freightcar America
7.97
-1.83
-18.67%
GBX
Greenbrier
49.25
6.48
15.16%
FSTR
L. B. Foster Company
41.13
18.81
84.27%
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies
290.86
104.89
56.40%
Trinity Industries Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Trinity Industries posts strong Q2 results, demand improving
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Trinity Industries reported second-quarter 2026 earnings from continuing operations of $1.25 per diluted share on revenues of $485 million, with results driven by higher lease rates and a $132 million non-cash gain from a railcar...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Trinity Industries Expands Liquidity With New Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 12, 2026, Trinity Industries, Inc. entered into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement that replaces its prior 2022 facility and establishes a $600 million unsecured revolving line of credit, with potential upsizing by $300 million ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Trinity Industries Shareholders Reaffirm Board and Governance Structure
Positive
May 21, 2026
At its May 21, 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, Trinity Industries, Inc. shareholders elected eight directors to one-year terms, reaffirming the existing leadership slate and signaling continuity in board oversight. The election results showed...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.