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First National
(NASDAQ:FXNC)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$34.00
â–²(33.02% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
Overall score reflects solid financial performance and reasonable valuation, offset by weak near-term technical momentum (price below key moving averages, negative MACD, low RSI). A positive corporate update (leadership continuity and dividend declaration) modestly supports the outlook.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Margin Rebound
A sharp TTM revenue rebound alongside materially higher net and EBIT margins reflects recovering core lending and fee performance. This improves sustainable earnings capacity over the coming months and supports reinvestment, capital returns, and underwriting resilience.
Negative Factors
Volatile Cash Generation
Material swings in operating and free cash flow, including a recent year of negative cash conversion and a notable FCF decline, weaken predictable funding for dividends, loan growth and reserves. Persistent variability raises execution and liquidity risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Margin Rebound
A sharp TTM revenue rebound alongside materially higher net and EBIT margins reflects recovering core lending and fee performance. This improves sustainable earnings capacity over the coming months and supports reinvestment, capital returns, and underwriting resilience.
Read all positive factors
First National (FXNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$287.05M
Dividend Yield2.09%
Average Volume (3M)17.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.2
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth7.42%
EPS Growth141.95%
CountryUS
Employees308
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.40
Shares Outstanding9,040,967
10 Day Avg. Volume18,705
30 Day Avg. Volume17,295
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio10.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$94.45M
First National Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
First National Corporation serves as the holding company for First Bank, which offers a diverse array of financial solutions and commercial banking services. It caters to a broad clientele across Virginia, including individuals, small and medium-s...
How the Company Makes Money
FXNC primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by earning net interest income and generating noninterest income. Net interest income is the core driver: the bank collects interest and fees on loans and other interest-earning assets (e.g...
First National Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 117.40M | 112.20M | 88.27M | 67.88M | 60.67M | 46.17M |
| Gross Profit | 91.01M | 83.07M | 56.55M | 47.42M | 55.01M | 44.52M |
| EBITDA | 30.37M | 26.47M | 10.45M | 13.42M | 22.26M | 14.35M |
| Net Income | 21.68M | 17.70M | 6.97M | 9.62M | 16.80M | 10.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.08B | 2.04B | 2.01B | 1.42B | 1.37B | 1.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 488.97M | 177.80M | 164.50M | 240.02M | 229.82M | 465.50M |
| Total Debt | 42.74M | 42.59M | 30.45M | 64.28M | 14.27M | 19.27M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.88B | 1.85B | 1.84B | 1.30B | 1.26B | 1.27B |
| Stockholders Equity | 193.59M | 186.20M | 166.53M | 116.27M | 108.36M | 117.04M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 20.97M | 21.01M | -25.50M | 14.52M | 25.59M | 7.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.57M | 25.19M | -22.20M | 16.39M | 26.77M | 7.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -46.33M | -29.41M | 136.83M | -34.34M | -120.14M | -126.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 16.46M | 2.26M | -38.91M | 38.20M | -15.72M | 167.15M |
First National Technical Analysis
Positive
25.56
Price Trends
29.32
Positive
28.27
Positive
26.52
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
53.82
Neutral
56.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FXNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.78, below the 50-day MA of 29.32, and below the 200-day MA of 26.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FXNC.
First National Risk Analysis
First National disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. First National reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
First National Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $248.32M | 10.00 | 13.36% | 3.21% | 5.91% | 37.89% | |
74 Outperform | $283.78M | 11.48 | 14.00% | 2.14% | 10.02% | 67.92% | |
72 Outperform | $219.47M | 11.72 | 9.83% | 3.06% | 20.33% | 59.91% | |
72 Outperform | $232.35M | 8.00 | 12.59% | 3.19% | 7.20% | 31.23% | |
69 Neutral | $282.21M | 11.45 | 8.92% | 4.32% | -2.20% | 15.76% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $287.05M | 13.23 | 11.51% | 2.49% | 7.42% | 141.95% |
* Financial Sector Average
FXNC
First National
31.75
11.12
53.92%
LCNB
LCNB
19.81
5.98
43.27%
OPBK
OP Bancorp
15.60
3.29
26.69%
FRAF
Franklin Financial Services
63.16
24.94
65.26%
EFSI
Eagle Financial Services
40.55
8.25
25.53%
VABK
Virginia National Bankshares
45.80
10.30
29.00%
First National Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesDividendsShareholder Meetings
First National Announces Leadership Transition and Dividend Declaration
Positive
May 14, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 13, 2026, First National Corporation’s investors elected all twelve director nominees and ratified the appointment of Yount, Hyde Barbour, P.C. as the independent registered public accounting fir...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
First National Shares Updated Outlook at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 13, 2026
During its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 13, 2026, First National’s management presented financial and other corporate information, providing investors with an updated view of the company’s performance and operations. The mater...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.