First National (FXNC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $239.96M
• Dividend Yield: 2.49%
• Average Volume (3M): 17.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: 48.94%
• EPS Growth: 11.61%
• Country: US
• Employees: 303
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.62
• Shares Outstanding: 9,010,817
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 18,705
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 17,295
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.02
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.34
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $28.00 ▲(9.55% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/01/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/01/26

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: a strong, conservatively levered balance sheet and improving revenue trends are weighed down by weak cash flow (negative operating and free cash flow) and reduced profitability versus prior peak years. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation is reasonable (P/E ~13) with a solid dividend yield, reinforced by the recent dividend increase.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates a positive trajectory and expanding market presence, essential for long-term business sustainability.

Dividend Increase

The dividend increase reflects strong financial health and a commitment to returning value to shareholders, enhancing investor confidence.

Gross Profit Margin

A strong gross profit margin indicates effective cost management and pricing power, supporting long-term profitability and competitive advantage.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Decreasing net profit margins may indicate rising costs or competitive pressures, potentially impacting long-term profitability.

Cash Flow Issues

Negative cash flows can strain liquidity and limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities, affecting financial stability.

Return on Equity Decline

A decline in return on equity suggests inefficiencies in using shareholder capital to generate profits, which could hinder growth prospects.

First National Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First National Corporation operates as the bank holding company for First Bank that provides various commercial banking services to small and medium-sized businesses, individuals, estates, local governmental entities, and non-profit organizations in Virginia. The company's deposit products include checking, savings, money market, and individual retirement accounts, as well as certificates of deposit and treasury management solutions. Its loan products comprise construction loans, including residential, land acquisition, and development loans; 1-4 family residential real estate loans; and commercial real estate loans that are secured by commercial real estate, including multi-family residential buildings, office and retail buildings, hotels, industrial buildings, and religious facilities. The company's loan products also include commercial and industrial loans that are secured by business assets, such as accounts receivable, equipment, and inventory; home equity loans; and secured and unsecured consumer loans, such as lines of credit, automobile loans, deposit account loans, and installment and demand loans. In addition, it provides wealth management services, including estate planning, investment management of assets, trustee under an agreement, trustee under a will, and estate settlement. Further, the company offers title insurance and investment services; and holds other real estate owned and office sites, as well as provides internet and mobile banking, remote deposit capture, and other traditional banking services. It serves customers through 20 bank branch offices, a loan production office, and a customer service center, as well as through a network of ATMs. The company was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Strasburg, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

First National generates revenue through several key channels, primarily from interest income on loans provided to customers, including personal loans, mortgages, and commercial loans. The company also earns money from fees associated with account maintenance, transaction services, and wealth management offerings. Additionally, First National may benefit from investment income derived from its portfolio of securities. Strategic partnerships with financial technology firms and local businesses enhance its service offerings and customer base, contributing to its overall earnings. The bank's focus on community engagement and personalized service helps attract and retain customers, further driving revenue growth.

First National Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: revenue growth improved (~8.9% TTM), and the balance sheet looks conservative (debt-to-equity ~0.17 with a growing equity base). Offsetting this, profitability is meaningfully below 2022–2023 levels (net margin ~6.8% TTM), and cash generation is the key risk with negative operating and free cash flow in TTM and 2024.

Income Statement

Revenue momentum improved into TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with ~8.9% growth versus modest growth in 2024, showing a re-acceleration in top-line performance. Profitability, however, has compressed meaningfully from 2022–2023 levels: net margin is ~6.8% in TTM versus ~7.9% in 2024 and ~14.2% in 2023, and operating profitability also stepped down versus prior years. Overall, the income statement shows solid growth recently but weaker earnings efficiency versus the company’s earlier peak period.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative with debt-to-equity at ~0.17 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), improved from ~0.55 in 2023 and broadly stable-to-lower versus 2024 (~0.18). Equity has expanded over time (from ~$84.9M in 2020 to ~$181.2M TTM), supporting balance sheet resilience. Returns on equity are currently modest (~3.3% TTM, ~4.2% in 2024) and well below 2022–2023 levels, signaling that while the balance sheet is strong, profitability on that capital base has weakened.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has deteriorated: operating cash flow is negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and 2024, and free cash flow is also negative in both periods, a sharp contrast to positive operating and free cash flow in 2020–2023. The recent pattern suggests weaker cash conversion and/or elevated cash usage versus earnings, which increases reliance on balance sheet flexibility. While prior years demonstrate the business can generate cash, the current trajectory is the key financial risk flag.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	112.20M	88.27M	67.88M	60.67M	46.17M
Gross Profit	83.07M	56.55M	47.42M	55.01M	44.52M
EBITDA	21.94M	10.45M	13.42M	22.26M	14.35M
Net Income	17.70M	6.97M	9.62M	16.80M	10.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.04B	2.01B	1.42B	1.37B	1.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	238.37M	164.50M	240.02M	229.82M	465.50M
Total Debt	42.59M	30.45M	64.28M	14.27M	19.27M
Total Liabilities	1.85B	1.84B	1.30B	1.26B	1.27B
Stockholders Equity	186.20M	166.53M	116.27M	108.36M	117.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-25.50M	14.52M	25.59M	7.03M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-22.20M	16.39M	26.77M	7.87M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	136.83M	-34.34M	-120.14M	-126.30M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-38.91M	38.20M	-15.72M	167.15M

First National Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 25.56
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FXNC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 25.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.35, below the 50-day MA of 26.28, and above the 200-day MA of 22.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.15 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FXNC.

First National Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LCNB	73 Outperform	$244.44M	10.49	8.97%	5.32%	5.07%	228.39%
OPBK	70 Outperform	$197.68M	7.78	10.99%	3.32%	9.10%	12.36%
VABK	69 Neutral	$214.32M	11.02	10.41%	3.41%	1.11%	14.44%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
EFSI	67 Neutral	$199.89M	23.46	6.63%	3.11%	-1.45%	-31.32%
FRAF	67 Neutral	$231.95M	10.81	9.91%	2.51%	12.06%	10.38%
FXNC	66 Neutral	$239.96M	13.62	7.36%	2.49%	48.94%	11.61%

First National Corporate Events

First National Increases Quarterly Dividend by 9.7%

On November 12, 2025, First National Corporation’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per common share, marking a 9.7% increase from the previous dividend. This decision reflects the company’s strong financial performance and continues its decade-long trend of annual dividend increases, underscoring its commitment to shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (FXNC) stock is a Hold with a $23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First National stock, see the FXNC Stock Forecast page.