Virginia National Bankshares (VABK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $220.69M
• Dividend Yield: 3.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 15.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: 1.11%
• EPS Growth: 14.44%
• Country: US
• Employees: 239
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.10
• Shares Outstanding: 5,393,139
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,389
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 15,908
• PEG Ratio: -0.97
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.28
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.48
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.54
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.13
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $43.00 ▲(7.96% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (healthy profitability and manageable leverage) and supportive valuation (moderate P/E with a ~3.6% dividend yield). Recent corporate news adds a positive catalyst through stronger earnings and improved efficiency. These positives are tempered by mixed technicals, including a negative MACD and trading below key short- and mid-term moving averages.

Positive Factors

Net interest margin expansion

Sustained NIM expansion reflects the bank's ability to preserve asset yields while reducing funding costs, directly supporting core interest income. Over 2–6 months this durable margin improvement should increase recurring earnings power and buffer profitability against modest loan growth.

Improved efficiency and earnings

Rising net income and a materially improved efficiency ratio indicate stronger operating leverage and cost management. Coupled with a consistent dividend, this suggests durable profitability discipline and management emphasis on converting revenue into sustainable shareholder returns.

Strengthened capital and liquidity (TBV up)

Rising tangible book value and affirmed strong liquidity support loss-absorption capacity and optionality for lending or shareholder distributions. A healthier capital base is a durable structural advantage for a regional bank through economic cycles and regulatory pressures.

Negative Factors

Modest loan growth / revenue softness

Persistently modest loan growth and a recent TTM revenue dip constrain long-term net interest income expansion, limiting top-line momentum. For a regional bank, sustained slow loan origination reduces scale benefits and reduces potential to offset rate or margin volatility over months.

Sharp drop in free cash flow

A sharp fall in free cash flow versus prior periods weakens cash conversion reliability and reduces financial flexibility for capital deployment, buybacks, or cushioning credit stress. Over a multi-month horizon this raises funding and reinvestment risk despite positive net income.

Normalized margins and weaker ROE

Margin normalization and a lower ROE point to reduced capital efficiency versus recent years, implying less earnings per dollar of equity. If structural, this could compress long-term returns and constrain dividend growth or capital reinvestment over the next several quarters.

Virginia National Bankshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Virginia National Bankshares Corporation operates as the holding company for Virginia National Bank that provides a range of commercial banking services. The company operates through four segments: Bank, Sturman Wealth Advisors, VNB Trust and Estate Services, and Masonry Capital. It provides checking accounts, demand deposits, NOW accounts, money market deposit accounts, time deposits, certificates of deposit, individual retirement accounts, and other depository services. The company also offers commercial and industrial loans, real estate construction and land loans, commercial real estate loans, and 1-4 family residential mortgages, as well as consumer loans comprising student loans, revolving credit, and other fixed payment loans. In addition, it provides automated teller machines, internet banking, treasury, and cash management services, as well as merchant and debit card services; and wealth and investment advisory, brokerage, insurance, consulting, and related services. Further, the company offers investment management, corporate trustee, trust and estate administration, IRA administration, house investment management, and custody services. It serves individuals, businesses, and charitable organizations. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated sixteen full-service banking facilities in the cities of Charlottesville, Manassas, Richmond, and Winchester, as well as the counties of Albemarle, Fauquier, and Prince William. Virginia National Bankshares Corporation was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Charlottesville, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

Virginia National Bankshares generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investments. The company offers various loan products, including commercial loans, residential mortgages, and consumer loans, which typically carry interest rates that contribute significantly to its earnings. Additionally, VABK earns non-interest income through fees associated with banking services such as account maintenance, transaction processing, and wealth management services. The bank's focus on building strong relationships with local businesses and individuals also enables it to capture a steady flow of deposits, which can be leveraged for lending activities. Furthermore, VABK may engage in strategic partnerships with local businesses and organizations to enhance its service offerings and expand its customer base, thereby increasing revenue opportunities.

Virginia National Bankshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financial quality is good: profitability remains solid and leverage is manageable with improved balance-sheet risk versus 2023. Offsets include a modest TTM revenue decline, margin normalization versus 2022–2023 peaks, and a sharp drop in free cash flow versus the prior period.

Income Statement

Profitability remains solid in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with healthy net profit and operating margins, and results are broadly consistent with 2024. However, the growth profile has softened: revenue declined slightly in TTM after positive growth in prior years, and margins are below the exceptionally strong levels seen in 2022–2023. Overall, earnings power looks good, but the recent top-line dip and margin compression temper the outlook.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable with a relatively low debt load versus equity in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and balance-sheet risk looks improved versus 2023 when leverage was higher. Equity has grown over time, supporting stability. The main watch item is profitability on shareholders’ capital: return on equity in TTM is lower than 2022–2024 levels, suggesting reduced efficiency or a less favorable earnings environment despite a stronger leverage position.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally supportive, with free cash flow close to net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating earnings are translating into cash. That said, free cash flow fell sharply versus the prior period (large negative growth in TTM), pointing to weaker underlying cash momentum. Operating cash flow is positive but not consistently strong across years, adding some volatility to the cash-flow profile.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	83.08M	82.61M	79.09M	69.99M	58.74M	33.80M
Gross Profit	56.51M	53.66M	57.34M	66.70M	54.44M	28.82M
EBITDA	25.33M	25.16M	28.04M	33.63M	16.32M	12.00M
Net Income	17.86M	16.97M	19.26M	23.44M	10.07M	7.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.61B	1.62B	1.65B	1.62B	1.97B	848.41M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	26.48M	29.14M	448.99M	578.28M	660.19M	182.20M
Total Debt	40.08M	29.13M	79.92M	9.59M	10.47M	33.59M
Total Liabilities	1.43B	1.46B	1.49B	1.49B	1.81B	765.81M
Stockholders Equity	177.36M	160.30M	153.04M	133.42M	161.99M	82.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	17.98M	14.56M	12.73M	22.14M	11.77M	9.05M
Operating Cash Flow	18.17M	15.29M	13.90M	22.68M	13.06M	9.25M
Investing Cash Flow	13.23M	15.75M	-19.77M	-167.20M	262.19M	-129.95M
Financing Cash Flow	-27.47M	-42.33M	-5.88M	-324.19M	198.89M	136.31M

Virginia National Bankshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 39.83
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VABK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.20, below the 50-day MA of 40.52, and above the 200-day MA of 38.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.20 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VABK.

Virginia National Bankshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LCNB	73 Outperform	$242.73M	10.50	8.97%	5.32%	5.07%	228.39%
OPBK	70 Outperform	$208.10M	8.13	10.99%	3.32%	9.10%	12.36%
VABK	69 Neutral	$220.69M	11.53	10.41%	3.41%	1.11%	14.44%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
EFSI	67 Neutral	$205.97M	24.09	6.63%	3.11%	-1.45%	-31.32%
FRAF	67 Neutral	$228.48M	10.76	9.91%	2.51%	12.06%	10.38%
FXNC	66 Neutral	$237.44M	13.42	7.36%	2.49%	48.94%	11.61%

Virginia National Bankshares Corporate Events

Virginia National Bankshares Posts Strong Q4 2025 Earnings

On January 29, 2026, Virginia National Bankshares Corporation reported net income of $6.0 million, or $1.10 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2025, up from $4.6 million, or $0.85 per diluted share, a year earlier, and full-year 2025 net income of $19.3 million, or $3.55 per diluted share, compared with $17.0 million, or $3.15 per diluted share, in 2024. The earnings growth in 2025 stemmed primarily from lower interest expense as the cost of funds on deposits and borrowings declined while asset yields held steady despite prime rate cuts, driving net interest margin expansion to 3.50% and a significantly improved efficiency ratio; balance sheet metrics showed modest loan growth, rising deposits, reduced securities holdings in favor of higher-yielding earning assets, low but slightly higher nonperforming assets, a stable allowance for credit losses, and strong funding and liquidity flexibility. On January 27, 2026, the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share, payable February 27, 2026 to shareholders of record on February 13, 2026, representing an indicated yield of about 3.57% at the January 27 closing price and underscoring management’s confidence in the bank’s capital strength and sustained earnings power.

The most recent analyst rating on (VABK) stock is a Hold with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Virginia National Bankshares stock, see the VABK Stock Forecast page.

Virginia National Bankshares Announces CFO Transition

On November 19, 2025, Virginia National Bankshares Corporation announced a leadership transition with Tara Y. Harrison stepping down as Chief Financial Officer to become a Senior Advisor, effective November 21, 2025. Cathy W. Liles will assume the role of Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The transition is amicable, with Ms. Harrison’s decision driven by personal reasons, and both executives are committed to ensuring a smooth transition. Ms. Liles brings extensive experience in the banking industry, having held senior financial roles at various institutions, and is expected to contribute significantly to the company’s continued success.

The most recent analyst rating on (VABK) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Virginia National Bankshares stock, see the VABK Stock Forecast page.