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Federal Signal (FSS)
NYSE:FSS
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Federal Signal (FSS) AI Stock Analysis

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FSS

Federal Signal

(NYSE:FSS)

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Outperform 79 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$143.00
▲(20.28% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (rising revenues, improved margins, solid cash generation, and moderate leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook after guidance was raised with strong quarterly momentum and cash flow. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages. Valuation and income are the main constraints, with a higher P/E and low dividend yield, while backlog/mix-related headwinds temper the otherwise positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Recurring aftermarket revenue
A roughly 25% aftermarket share with 24% YoY growth builds durable, higher‑margin recurring revenue from parts, service, rentals and used-equipment. That installed-base leverage cushions new-equipment cyclicality and supports steady cash flow and margin resilience over multiple cycles.
Negative Factors
Backlog decline and elevated lead times
An ~$80M YoY backlog decline reduces revenue visibility and may signal near-term demand or mix shifts; management tied much of the drop to a planned third-party decline. Elevated lead times for some products also risk fulfillment delays, margin pressure, and uneven quarterly delivery patterns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring aftermarket revenue
A roughly 25% aftermarket share with 24% YoY growth builds durable, higher‑margin recurring revenue from parts, service, rentals and used-equipment. That installed-base leverage cushions new-equipment cyclicality and supports steady cash flow and margin resilience over multiple cycles.
Read all positive factors

Federal Signal (FSS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Federal Signal Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Federal Signal Corporation, operating through its various subsidiaries, specializes in the development, production, and distribution of an extensive range of products and integrated solutions. The company serves a diverse client base, including mu...
How the Company Makes Money
Federal Signal makes money primarily by selling specialized equipment, systems, and related parts and services through its two operating segments. 1) Environmental Solutions (equipment sales): A major portion of revenue comes from the sale of pur...

Federal Signal Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong, broad-based operational and financial momentum: double-digit top-line growth, record adjusted EBITDA and EPS, substantial cash generation, successful early integration of acquisitions, and an upward revision to full-year guidance. Headwinds included a lower backlog year-over-year driven by a planned Labrie decline, mix-driven margin pressure in SSG, modest increases in corporate costs, and some timing/market uncertainty in refuse and select municipal product lines. Overall, the positive drivers (growth, margins, cash flow, and guidance lift) materially outweighed the noted challenges.
Positive Updates
Record Quarter: Revenue and Profit Growth
Consolidated net sales of $670.0M, up $106M or 19% YoY; consolidated operating income $118.2M, up $20.5M or 21% YoY; consolidated adjusted EPS $1.42, up $0.25 or 21% YoY.
Negative Updates
Backlog Decline Year-over-Year
Backlog at ~$1.0B, down approximately $80M or ~8% YoY, with ~$75M of the reduction tied to planned decline in third‑party Labrie refuse backlog discontinued in late 2025; third‑party Labrie backlog approx. $44M at quarter end.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Record Quarter: Revenue and Profit Growth
Consolidated net sales of $670.0M, up $106M or 19% YoY; consolidated operating income $118.2M, up $20.5M or 21% YoY; consolidated adjusted EPS $1.42, up $0.25 or 21% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Federal Signal raised its full-year guidance, boosting adjusted EPS to $5.12–$5.30 (from $4.80–$5.05) and increasing net sales guidance to $2.58–$2.67 billion (from $2.57–$2.66 billion), while reaffirming capital expenditures of $45–$55 million; management expects a full-year effective tax rate of ~24% (ex discrete items), intends to continue a $0.15/share quarterly dividend (Q2 paid, Q3 announced), targets ~100% annual cash conversion, and still targets annual low‑double‑digit top‑line growth split roughly 50/50 between inorganic and organic growth; related operating metrics noted include a $1.0 billion backlog (with ~$44 million third‑party Labrie backlog and a ~$75 million year‑over‑year planned decline), aftermarket at ~25% of ESG revenue (expected to grow slightly faster than the company), roughly half of annual CapEx directed to growth, and an SSG adjusted EBITDA margin target range of 22%–28%.

Federal Signal Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong multi-year growth and profitability: revenue expanded from $1.21B (2021) to $2.18B (2025) and $2.45B TTM, with net margin improving to ~11.6% TTM and operating margin to ~15.9%. Cash generation is solid (TTM FCF $339.2M; ~0.91x net income), and leverage is moderate (TTM debt/equity 0.41) with ROE up to ~20.2% TTM. Key risks are uneven growth (notably ~0.2% revenue growth in 2025) and periodic cash flow variability (e.g., weak 2022).
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.45B2.18B1.86B1.72B1.43B1.21B
Gross Profit699.90M612.80M533.00M450.20M344.90M288.70M
EBITDA459.70M419.10M341.70M283.10M215.90M172.50M
Net Income285.40M246.60M216.30M157.40M120.40M100.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.44B2.39B1.77B1.62B1.52B1.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments62.80M63.70M91.10M61.00M47.50M40.50M
Total Debt485.80M594.60M252.40M320.70M388.40M313.70M
Total Liabilities932.40M1.01B579.10M618.60M663.40M582.10M
Stockholders Equity1.51B1.38B1.19B1.00B860.90M784.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow339.20M227.10M190.70M164.10M18.80M64.40M
Operating Cash Flow372.50M254.70M231.30M194.40M71.80M101.80M
Investing Cash Flow-495.70M-527.90M-78.90M-83.70M-99.70M-168.70M
Financing Cash Flow121.40M244.50M-121.00M-97.90M35.50M26.40M

Federal Signal Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price118.89
Price Trends
50DMA
116.31
Positive
100DMA
114.48
Positive
200DMA
114.29
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.20
Positive
RSI
50.98
Neutral
STOCH
58.22
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FSS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 118.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 119.41, above the 50-day MA of 116.31, and above the 200-day MA of 114.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FSS.

Federal Signal Risk Analysis

Federal Signal disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Federal Signal reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Federal Signal Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$7.60B26.6420.22%0.49%23.97%28.96%
77
Outperform
$8.31B30.6117.09%0.87%10.69%60.92%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
61
Neutral
$434.53M22.1310.89%-3.05%4.46%
60
Neutral
$3.83B134.975.54%32.11%-71.47%
54
Neutral
$4.22B20.0158.84%0.41%9.99%15.89%
47
Neutral
$1.26B-5.05-408.05%590.00%-15.72%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FSS
Federal Signal
124.95
3.00
2.46%
CECO
Ceco Environmental
65.89
20.76
46.00%
ERII
Energy Recovery
8.65
-4.14
-32.37%
ZWS
Zurn Water Solutions
50.51
5.93
13.30%
PCT
PureCycle Technologies
6.37
-6.25
-49.52%
ATMU
Atmus Filtration Technologies, Inc.
51.63
14.26
38.16%

Federal Signal Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Federal Signal Showcases Growth Strategy in New Investor Presentation
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Federal Signal posted new investor presentation materials outlining its financial profile and strategic positioning, highlighting that net sales have grown at a roughly 13% compound annual rate between 2016 and 2025, with organic ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 31, 2026