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Zurn Water Solutions (ZWS)
NYSE:ZWS

Zurn Water Solutions (ZWS) AI Stock Analysis

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ZWS

Zurn Water Solutions

(NYSE:ZWS)

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Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$57.00
▲(11.81% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/22/26
The score is driven primarily by strong fundamentals—especially robust free cash flow and improved profitability—supported by constructive price momentum and upbeat, specific 2026 guidance. The main offset is valuation (high P/E with a low yield), which raises execution risk if growth or margins disappoint.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow & earnings quality
Sustained, sizable free cash flow (~$317M in 2025) and OCF coverage above 1x indicate high earnings quality and internal funding capacity. This durable cash generation supports buybacks, dividends, deleveraging, and incremental investment without needing external capital over the next 2–6 months.
Margin expansion & operational improvement
Consistent margin expansion reflects effective productivity programs (ZEBS), supply-chain optimization and higher operating leverage. These structural improvements increase cash conversion and resilience to cyclical demand, supporting sustainable profitability if cost initiatives remain on track.
Balance sheet strength & liquidity
A conservatively leveraged balance sheet with stable equity and manageable total debt gives management flexibility for capital allocation. Combined with an expanded revolver, this durable liquidity profile supports opportunistic M&A, buybacks and cushions cyclical downturns over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Slowing revenue growth
Revenue growth has decelerated to low single digits, constraining upside from top-line expansion. Slower organic growth increases reliance on margin gains and capital deployment to drive returns, making execution on productivity and new adjacencies more critical for durable EPS improvement.
Gross-margin pressure and volatility
Material-level gross-margin compression signals input-cost or pricing pressure that operating leverage alone may not offset. If gross margins remain volatile, sustained margin and cash-flow improvements could be at risk, limiting the company's ability to reliably expand net margins long term.
Supply-chain, tariff & sourcing execution risk
An ongoing shift away from direct China sourcing and evolving tariff/commodity settings introduces execution and cost uncertainties. Transition missteps or adverse tariff moves could raise COGS or disrupt supply, pressuring margins and delivery reliability over multiple quarters.

Zurn Water Solutions (ZWS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Zurn Water Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionZurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation designs, procures, manufactures, and markets water system solutions that provide and enhance water quality, safety, flow control, and conservation in and around non-residential buildings. It offers finish plumbing, drainage and interceptors, water control and backflow, fire protection, PEX pipe fittings and accessories, and repair parts under the Zurn brand name; and hand and hair dryers, and baby changing stations under the World Dryer brand name. The company also offers stainless steel products under the Just Manufacturing brand name, which include stainless steel sinks for classrooms and academic institutions; ADA commercial stainless-steel sinks and plumbing fixtures for assisted living; faucets, bubblers, drains, and accessories; and stainless steel fixtures and related products for food services, government, healthcare, hospitality, institutional, and residential markets. It serves higher education, healthcare, retail, restaurant, hospitality, education, government, and fire protection markets. The company was formerly known as Zurn Water Solutions Corporation. Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
How the Company Makes MoneyZurn Water Solutions generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its extensive range of products to plumbing contractors, distributors, and municipal agencies. The company benefits from a diversified portfolio that includes fixtures, valves, and drainage solutions, which are essential for new construction, renovation projects, and maintenance services. Additionally, ZWS has formed strategic partnerships with construction firms and engineering companies to enhance its market reach and influence. The company also invests in technology and innovation, allowing for premium pricing on advanced products that promote water efficiency, which further contributes to its earnings.

Zurn Water Solutions Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational and financial performance: double-digit organic Q4 sales growth, meaningful margin expansion, robust free cash flow (+17% YoY), very low leverage (0.4x), active share repurchases, and notable sustainability/product innovations. Management provided a confident but measured 2026 framework (mid-single-digit sales growth, ~35% incremental EBITDA margins, ~$335M FCF) while acknowledging risks including residential/commercial softness, tariff/commodity uncertainty, remaining China sourcing transition work, and that M&A opportunities have not yet been closed. On balance, the positive execution, cash generation, low leverage and clear strategic initiatives significantly outweigh the contained risks discussed.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Quarterly Sales Growth
Q4 sales of $407 million, representing 10% core and reported year-over-year growth; full-year core sales growth of 8% for 2025.
Profitability and Margin Expansion
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $104 million with adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.6%, a 100 basis-point expansion year-over-year; full-year adjusted EBITDA margin improved ~120 basis points versus prior year.
Strong Free Cash Flow and Leverage
Generated $83 million of free cash flow in Q4 and $317 million for the full year (up 17% vs. 2024); net leverage ended the year at 0.4x, the lowest since becoming a public company.
Capital Allocation — Share Repurchases and Dividends
Repurchased approximately 3% of outstanding shares in 2025 totaling $160 million (Q4 repurchases of $25 million; average repurchase price $36.74) and returned $64 million in dividends.
Supply Chain Optimization and Productivity
Productivity initiatives and Zurn Elkay Business System (ZEBS) drove strong margin performance and operational improvements; management reported successful execution of supply chain optimization efforts.
Sustainability and Product Innovation
Drinking water products delivered 2.4 billion gallons of cleaner water and prevented 20 billion single-use bottles; launched Pro Filtration (longer filter life, PFAS reduction, microplastics and lead reduction), expanded filtration portfolio (Liv EZ), launched TerraCycle recycling for filters, and World Dryer innovations that eliminated 3.5 billion paper towels in 2025.
Engagement and Continuous Improvement
Continuous improvement submissions (#CI) increased ~49% year-over-year from 3,741 to 5,568, demonstrating stronger internal engagement and process improvement culture.
2026 Guidance Framework
Provided 2026 framework: expect core sales up mid-single digits, incremental adjusted EBITDA margins of ~35% on increased sales, and approximately $335 million of free cash flow for 2026; Q1 2026 core sales guidance of +7% to +8% with incremental EBITDA margins ~35% and Q1 EBITDA margin ~25.5%–26%.
Negative Updates
Softness in Residential and Parts of Commercial End Markets
Management noted continued softness in residential end market and pockets of the commercial segment during Q4; guidance assumes residential remains tougher in 2026.
Tariff and Inflation Uncertainty
Evolving tariff environment and recent metal price increases present uncertainty; 2026 guidance assumes tariff countries and rates remain consistent and management is monitoring commodity inflation for potential incremental pricing actions.
Partial Dependence on China Sourcing Transition
Company is pursuing exit from direct material purchases from China and expects only a few points of COGS from China by end of 2026 — progress made but full transition not complete, posing execution risk and near-term supply challenges.
M&A Activity Yet to Materialize
Although the balance sheet is ready (low leverage and strong cash flow) and the funnel has been cultivated, management acknowledged it has been a while since executing a transaction and no imminent deals were announced.
Construction Project Conversion Concerns
Industry indicators show elevated planning pipelines but weak conversion to starts; management expects markets in 2026 to look similar to 2025 (institutional/waterworks low single-digit growth, commercial flattish), which may limit upside.
Incremental Investment Needs for Adjacencies
Management indicated incremental product development and go-to-market investments for adjacencies measured in the millions of dollars (embedded in a larger spend bucket), which could modestly offset near-term margin gains.
Company Guidance
The company guided 2026 to core sales growth of mid‑single digits (with Q1 specifically forecasting 7%–8%), incremental adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 35% on that incremental sales, and roughly $335 million of free cash flow for the year; management expects Q1 EBITDA margin of about 25.5%–26% (≈60 bps expansion vs. prior year at the midpoint). The framework assumes institutional and waterworks grow low single digits, commercial is flattish, residential remains tougher (overall market flat to slightly positive), higher price impact in H1 as prior tariff‑related pricing lapses in H2, tariff countries/rates holding steady, about a five‑point price benefit carried from Q4, and continued reduction of China direct COGS to only a few points by year‑end.

Zurn Water Solutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong cash generation and earnings quality (2025 FCF ~$317M, close to net income; OCF coverage of net income >1x) plus improving operating/EBITDA and net margins since 2022 support a solid score. Offsets include slowing recent revenue growth (~2.2% in 2025), 2025 gross-margin pressure, and less-clean long-term balance-sheet comparability due to the 2021 leverage/equity anomaly.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Revenue has scaled meaningfully over the period (from ~$563M in 2020 to ~$1.70B in 2025) with continued, albeit slower, growth most recently (2025 revenue growth at ~2.2%). Profitability has strengthened since 2022: operating and EBITDA margins expanded to ~16.8% and ~22.0% in 2025, and net margin improved to ~11.7% versus ~4.8% in 2022. Offsetting this, gross margin has been volatile and is down in 2025 (~41.6%) versus 2024 (~45.1%), indicating some cost or pricing pressure despite stronger operating leverage.
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Leverage is currently reasonable with debt-to-equity in the mid-0.3x range in 2023–2025 and equity base stable (~$1.60B in 2025). Total debt has risen modestly alongside growth (~$581M in 2025), but remains manageable relative to equity. Returns on equity have improved to ~12.3% in 2025 from low-single digits in 2022, signaling better profitability on the capital base. A key watch-out is the earlier 2021 balance sheet showing extremely high leverage (debt-to-equity ~4.27x) driven by very low reported equity, which suggests historical structural or reporting shifts and makes long-term comparability less clean.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are strong in 2025 (~$347M and ~$317M), with free cash flow up ~9.7% in 2025 and consistently close to reported earnings (free cash flow running at ~0.91–0.93x of net income in 2023–2025). Operating cash flow also covers net income comfortably in 2024–2025 (coverage ~1.18x to ~1.34x), indicating solid earnings quality. The main blemish is 2022, where operating cash flow coverage was weak (~0.34x) and free cash flow declined, pointing to a period of working-capital or investment headwinds that has since reversed.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.70B1.57B1.53B1.28B910.90M
Gross Profit706.10M707.00M648.10M465.50M373.20M
EBITDA373.60M328.40M273.20M165.20M164.60M
Net Income198.00M160.20M112.70M61.70M120.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.68B2.65B2.67B2.86B1.08B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments300.50M198.00M136.70M124.80M96.60M
Total Debt580.50M551.60M543.20M579.50M554.50M
Total Liabilities1.08B1.06B1.06B1.25B951.30M
Stockholders Equity1.60B1.59B1.60B1.61B126.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow316.60M271.70M232.60M89.40M200.30M
Operating Cash Flow346.50M293.50M253.90M97.00M223.60M
Investing Cash Flow-29.90M-20.20M-4.60M-6.60M-21.90M
Financing Cash Flow-217.30M-207.50M-239.20M-61.10M-356.20M

Zurn Water Solutions Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price50.98
Price Trends
50DMA
48.29
Positive
100DMA
47.47
Positive
200DMA
44.12
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.80
Positive
RSI
59.73
Neutral
STOCH
55.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ZWS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 50.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.50, above the 50-day MA of 48.29, and above the 200-day MA of 44.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ZWS.

Zurn Water Solutions Risk Analysis

Zurn Water Solutions disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Zurn Water Solutions reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Zurn Water Solutions Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$7.09B29.0419.20%0.49%11.83%11.08%
75
Outperform
$8.50B44.0912.06%0.80%6.88%42.07%
71
Outperform
$551.00M24.009.41%0.10%1.50%
67
Neutral
$1.99B44.3817.71%29.86%331.33%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
63
Neutral
$5.26B25.7668.46%0.39%3.72%11.71%
48
Neutral
$1.14B-4.38-147.56%12.57%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ZWS
Zurn Water Solutions
50.98
16.34
47.18%
CECO
Ceco Environmental
60.45
36.13
148.56%
ERII
Energy Recovery
10.43
-4.69
-31.02%
FSS
Federal Signal
116.43
36.78
46.17%
PCT
PureCycle Technologies
6.31
-3.05
-32.59%
ATMU
Atmus Filtration Technologies, Inc.
64.53
26.67
70.42%

Zurn Water Solutions Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Zurn Water Solutions Expands Revolving Credit Facility for Growth
Positive
Feb 20, 2026

On February 19, 2026, Zurn Elkay Water Solutions’ subsidiaries entered into a third amendment to their Fourth Amended and Restated First Lien Credit Agreement, refinancing existing revolving borrowings and significantly expanding their revolving credit facility from $200 million to $550 million. The amendment, which extends the revolving facility’s maturity to February 19, 2031, adjusts leverage-based covenants, interest margins, and fees, leaving the company with $540.1 million of additional borrowing capacity and $9.9 million in letters of credit, thereby enhancing its financial flexibility and potential funding for future operations and growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (ZWS) stock is a Buy with a $57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Zurn Water Solutions stock, see the ZWS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 22, 2026