Fidus Investment (FDUS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $675.21M
• Dividend Yield: 11.47%
• Average Volume (3M): 266.62K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.49
• Revenue Growth: -12.17%
• EPS Growth: -14.93%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.52
• Shares Outstanding: 37,954,365
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 341,870
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 266,624
• PEG Ratio: -2.49
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.30
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.24
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.23
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.95
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.01
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $176.59M

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.00 ▼(-0.26% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is driven primarily by solid fundamentals (profitability and improved leverage) but is meaningfully constrained by the sharp negative swing in 2025 operating/free cash flow. Valuation is a key positive (low P/E and high yield), while technicals are weak with bearish trend signals despite oversold readings; earnings call commentary was broadly constructive with near-term origination moderation expected.

Positive Factors

Stronger Balance Sheet / Lower Leverage

Material leverage reduction and a larger equity base provide durable financial flexibility. Lower debt-to-equity reduces refinancing and covenant risk, supports continued originations and NAV growth, and gives management capacity to deploy capital selectively during market dislocations.

High Recurring Yield and Growing NII

A high effective portfolio yield and rising adjusted NII underpin persistent distributable income, a core BDC strength. Strong recurring interest income supports dividend coverage and reinvestment, helping sustain cash returns to shareholders across business cycles.

Conservative Credit Profile & Ample Liquidity

Low nonaccruals, heavy first‑lien weighting and low LTVs give structural downside protection in downturns. Combined with substantial cash, LOC and SBA availability, this credit and liquidity profile supports resilient cash flows and capacity to originate or withstand stressed borrower performance.

Negative Factors

Sharp Operating Cash Flow Deterioration

A large swing to operating cash outflows in 2025 weakens earnings quality and increases reliance on external funding or asset sales if persistent. For a BDC that pays regular dividends, sustained negative cash generation raises structural risk to distributions and heightens capital-raising or leverage needs.

Yield Compression and Rising Expenses

Modest per-share NII decline, quarter-over-quarter yield compression and higher tax/interest/fee expenses can structurally compress distributable earnings. If yields or margins stay pressured, dividend coverage and NAV growth could be impaired absent offsetting efficiency gains or higher spreading income.

Expanded ATM Increases Structural Dilution Risk

A larger at-the-market program materially improves financing optionality but also raises the persistent possibility of equity issuance. If used to fund operations or cover cash shortfalls, ATM taps can dilute NAV per share and dividend metrics, affecting long-term per-share returns.

Fidus Investment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Fidus Investment Corporation is a business development company. It specializing in leveraged buyouts, refinancings, change of ownership transactions, recapitalizations, strategic acquisitions, mezzanine, growth capital, business expansion, lower middle market investments, debt investments, subordinated and second lien loans, senior secured and unitranche debt, preferred equity, warrants, subordinated debt, senior subordinated notes, junior secured loans, and unitranche loans. It does not invest in turnarounds or distressed situations. The fund prefers to invest in aerospace and defense, business services, consumer products and services including retail, food, and beverage, healthcare products and services, industrial products and services, information technology services, niche manufacturing, transportation and logistics, and value-added distribution sectors. It seeks to invest in companies based in United States. The fund typically invests between $5 million and $15 million per transaction in companies with annual revenues between $10 million and $150 million and an annual EBITDA between $3 million and $20 million, but it can occasionally invest in larger or smaller companies. It seeks to acquire minority equity stakes and board observation rights in conjunction with its investments.

How the Company Makes Money

Fidus Investment generates revenue primarily through interest income from its debt investments and dividends from equity investments in portfolio companies. The company typically invests in senior secured loans, subordinated debt, and equity securities, which allows it to earn interest and capital appreciation. Additionally, FDUS earns management fees and incentive fees from its investment portfolio, which are based on the performance of its investments. The company's ability to identify and invest in promising middle-market companies, combined with its strategic partnerships and relationships within various industries, contributes to its revenue generation and overall financial performance.

Fidus Investment Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong reported profitability and an improved balance sheet (materially lower debt-to-equity and higher equity base) support the score, but it is pulled down by a sharp 2025 deterioration in operating and free cash flow (large outflows vs. prior inflows), raising near-term earnings-quality and cash volatility concerns.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily in the last two annual periods (2024: ~4.7% growth; 2025: ~3.0% growth) after earlier volatility, showing a more stable top-line trajectory. Profitability is strong, with net margins remaining very high (roughly ~58% in 2025 vs. ~69% in 2024). The key weakness is inconsistency in reported operating-level profitability metrics in 2025 (gross profit/EBIT/EBITDA shown as 0), which reduces transparency and makes year-to-year operating performance harder to assess.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved meaningfully, with debt-to-equity dropping to ~0.31 in 2025 from ~0.72 in 2024, indicating a stronger capital structure and added balance-sheet flexibility. Equity has grown over time (2025 equity: ~$742M vs. ~$656M in 2024), supporting a larger asset base. Returns on equity are solid but not exceptional (~10% in 2025, down from ~12% in 2024), suggesting profitability on shareholder capital has moderated even as leverage fell.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the clear weak spot: operating cash flow swung to a large outflow in 2025 (about -$147M) from an inflow in 2024 (about +$62M), and free cash flow followed the same pattern. This sharp reversal (with a deeply negative change rate reported for free cash flow) raises concerns about earnings quality and timing effects in cash collections/investments. While prior years show the business can generate positive cash (e.g., 2024 and 2023), the 2025 cash burn materially increases financial risk if it persists.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	159.25M	113.68M	108.60M	71.62M	146.41M
Gross Profit	115.62M	91.39M	88.00M	55.05M	129.47M
EBITDA	120.30M	82.21M	79.83M	47.64M	118.67M
Net Income	82.40M	78.29M	77.13M	35.82M	116.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.43B	1.16B	1.09B	935.96M	897.18M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	70.00M	57.16M	119.13M	62.35M	169.42M
Total Debt	230.56M	474.89M	466.51M	410.10M	366.04M
Total Liabilities	684.64M	508.45M	501.42M	455.62M	409.42M
Stockholders Equity	741.90M	655.67M	589.47M	480.34M	487.76M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-147.00M	62.37M	48.41M	-105.54M	167.90M
Operating Cash Flow	-147.00M	62.37M	48.41M	-105.54M	167.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-210.16M	-117.67M	-77.87M	-139.87B	126.05B
Financing Cash Flow	169.45M	-6.67M	86.24M	-1.53M	-122.79M

Fidus Investment Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 19.05
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FDUS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.19, above the 50-day MA of 18.93, and below the 200-day MA of 19.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FDUS.

Fidus Investment Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VINP	73 Outperform	$659.01M	21.23	15.08%	4.56%	81.45%	-26.75%
NCDL	69 Neutral	$646.48M	10.22	8.75%	14.71%	-8.32%	-33.94%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FDUS	66 Neutral	$675.21M	9.74	11.68%	11.47%	-12.17%	-14.93%
SLRC	58 Neutral	$759.40M	9.11	9.32%	10.80%	-6.30%	-6.92%
CCAP	58 Neutral	$471.87M	15.08	4.81%	13.20%	-20.18%	-61.90%
TCPC	53 Neutral	$306.96M	-5.23	-12.44%	21.13%	-91.81%	78.46%

Fidus Investment Corporate Events

Fidus Investment Expands At-The-Market Equity Offering Capacity

Fidus Investment Corporation has expanded its at-the-market equity offering program, originally established on November 10, 2022, which allows it to sell common shares from time to time through appointed sales agents. Effective March 2, 2026, the company increased the total capacity of this program to $400 million from $300 million, enhancing its flexibility to raise equity capital as market conditions permit.

Following the latest amendment to its equity distribution agreement with Fidus Investment Advisors, Raymond James & Associates and B. Riley Securities, Fidus may issue and sell up to $400 million of common stock but remains under no obligation to do so. As of March 2, 2026, approximately $134.8 million of capacity remained available under the program, potentially supporting future growth initiatives and balance sheet management without committing the company to immediate issuance.

The most recent analyst rating on (FDUS) stock is a Hold with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fidus Investment stock, see the FDUS Stock Forecast page.

Fidus Investment Declares First-Quarter 2026 Dividends and DRIP

On February 17, 2026, Fidus Investment Corporation announced that its board declared a first-quarter 2026 base dividend of $0.43 per share and a supplemental dividend of $0.09 per share. The dividends are scheduled to be paid on March 30, 2026 to stockholders of record as of March 20, 2026, reflecting the board’s review of estimated taxable income and undistributed taxable earnings.

The company reminded investors that final 2026 taxable income and the tax character of dividends will be determined after year-end, with distributions generally expected to consist of ordinary income but potentially including capital gains, qualified dividends or return of capital. Fidus also highlighted its dividend reinvestment plan, under which shareholders who do not opt out have their cash dividends automatically reinvested into additional common shares, reinforcing an option for compounding returns and ongoing capital formation.

The most recent analyst rating on (FDUS) stock is a Buy with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fidus Investment stock, see the FDUS Stock Forecast page.