BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC)
NASDAQ:TCPC
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BlackRock TCP Capital
(NASDAQ:TCPC)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
â–²(1.74% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/02/26
The score is held down primarily by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a pressured earnings/NAV narrative from the latest call (19% NAV drop, losses, and lower NII). Financial performance is improving but remains uneven across years, and valuation is mixed due to a negative P/E and a very high dividend yield that may reflect heightened risk.
Positive Factors
Strong liquidity and deleveraging actions
Large available liquidity and a material unsecured note repayment materially reduce rollover and refinancing risk, giving management runway to repair credits, selectively deploy capital into higher-quality loans, and support dividend coverage targets without forced asset sales.
Negative Factors
Sharp NAV decline and large realized/unrealized losses
A severe NAV hit erodes the equity cushion that absorbs future credit losses, constrains dividend policy and capital allocation, and signals portfolio mark-to-market vulnerability that can persist absent sustained credit recoveries or meaningful write-down reversals.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong liquidity and deleveraging actions
Large available liquidity and a material unsecured note repayment materially reduce rollover and refinancing risk, giving management runway to repair credits, selectively deploy capital into higher-quality loans, and support dividend coverage targets without forced asset sales.
Read all positive factors
BlackRock TCP Capital (TCPC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$290.10M
Dividend Yield21.13%
Average Volume (3M)1.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth-91.81%
EPS Growth78.46%
CountryUS
Employees19,800
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.25
Shares Outstanding84,331,040
10 Day Avg. Volume1,701,493
30 Day Avg. Volume1,470,734
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.16
Price to Book (P/B)0.78
Price to Sales (P/S)-6.09
P/FCF Ratio3.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue23.55
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-13.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-55.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.50Price Target Upside1.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$159.72M
BlackRock TCP Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. is a business development company specializing in direct equity and debt investments in middle-market, debt securities, senior secured loans, junior loans, originated loans, mezzanine, senior debt instruments, bonds, an...
How the Company Makes Money
TCPC makes money primarily from investment income generated by its portfolio of debt investments. The core revenue stream is interest income earned on loans it extends to middle-market borrowers (including cash-pay interest and, where applicable, ...
BlackRock TCP Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call contained material negative developments—most notably a 19% NAV decline, sizable realized and unrealized losses, and lower NII—counterbalanced by solid liquidity, active deleveraging actions (including a $325M note repayment), a strategic shift toward first-lien loans, tighter position sizing and ongoing share repurchases. While management highlighted remediation actions and BlackRock platform support, the near-term financial metrics and concentrated markdowns point to meaningful challenges that outweigh the operational and liquidity positives.Positive Updates
Strong Liquidity and Deleveraging Actions
Total liquidity at year-end of $570.2M (including $482.8M available borrowings and $61.1M cash). Subsequent repayment of the $325M 2026 unsecured notes on Feb 9, 2026 improved current liquidity to approximately $290.8M and reduced leverage.
Negative Updates
Significant NAV Decline
Net asset value declined 19% quarter-over-quarter to $7.07 per share as of Dec 31, 2025 (from $8.71 as of Sept 30, 2025), with six investments contributing ~67% ($1.11 per share) of the NAV decline.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Liquidity and Deleveraging Actions
Total liquidity at year-end of $570.2M (including $482.8M available borrowings and $61.1M cash). Subsequent repayment of the $325M 2026 unsecured notes on Feb 9, 2026 improved current liquidity to approximately $290.8M and reduced leverage.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company’s guidance centered on capital preservation and deleveraging: the Board declared a Q1 dividend of $0.17/share payable Mar 31 (record Mar 17) and reiterated the goal of a dividend sustainable and covered by NII (FY2025 adjusted NII $1.22/share; Q4 adjusted NII $0.25/share, including a ~$0.02/share adviser fee waiver); management said it will prioritize improving credit quality of challenged credits while continuing its refined strategy to selectively deploy into senior secured first‑lien loans (first‑lien exposure up to 87.4% from 83.6%), increase diversification and reduce position size (average new 2025 investment $5.8M vs $11.7M prior; average position $10.9M), and reduce leverage over time (net regulatory leverage 1.41x at year‑end, improved to 1.34x post‑year end after paydowns; total debt/equity 1.74x), supported by $570.2M year‑end liquidity (including $482.8M available borrowings and $61.1M cash), $129.2M unfunded commitments (8.4% of portfolio), recent Q4 deployments of $35M, paydowns of $80.7M, repurchases of 515,869 shares at $5.84 and 233,541 shares at $5.50 post‑period, and the Feb 9, 2026 $325M note repayment that left current liquidity of roughly $290.8M.BlackRock TCP Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | -76.35M | 20.76M | 209.33M | 181.00M | 165.11M |
| Gross Profit | -93.19M | -45.40M | 209.33M | 181.00M | 165.11M |
| EBITDA | -22.84M | -62.61M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net Income | -88.93M | -63.14M | 38.47M | -9.23M | 133.79M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.65B | 1.92B | 1.70B | 1.72B | 1.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 61.08M | 91.59M | 112.24M | 82.44M | 19.55M |
| Total Debt | 1.04B | 1.12B | 985.20M | 944.01M | 1.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.05B | 1.14B | 1.01B | 972.60M | 1.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 598.01M | 785.12M | 687.60M | 746.75M | 829.46M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 154.92M | 293.12M | 89.48M | 203.95M | -82.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 154.92M | 293.12M | 89.48M | 203.95M | -82.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 101.40M | 0.00 | 2.97M | 151.05M | 31.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -185.43M | -313.77M | -62.65M | -141.07M | 82.15M |
BlackRock TCP Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
3.44
Price Trends
4.33
Negative
4.82
Negative
5.46
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.21
Negative
33.13
Neutral
44.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCPC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.62, below the 50-day MA of 4.33, and below the 200-day MA of 5.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TCPC.
BlackRock TCP Capital Risk Analysis
BlackRock TCP Capital disclosed 66 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BlackRock TCP Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BlackRock TCP Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $549.94M | 2.10 | 24.70% | 11.02% | -45.46% | 134.73% | |
59 Neutral | $284.69M | 10.64 | 5.42% | 16.61% | -3.09% | 200.66% | |
58 Neutral | $454.52M | 15.08 | 4.81% | 13.20% | -20.18% | -61.90% | |
56 Neutral | $373.92M | 19.71 | 7.50% | 9.31% | 41.12% | -40.68% | |
53 Neutral | $290.10M | -5.23 | -12.44% | 21.13% | -91.81% | 78.46% | |
53 Neutral | $338.33M | -24.53 | -2.75% | 15.77% | -11.01% | -65.56% |
* Financial Sector Average
TCPC
BlackRock TCP Capital
3.44
-3.29
-48.86%
GLAD
Gladstone Capital
16.55
-8.70
-34.47%
GAIN
Gladstone Investment
13.81
1.56
12.75%
PNNT
Pennantpark Investment
4.36
-1.69
-27.95%
CCAP
Crescent Capital BDC
12.31
-3.72
-23.21%
CION
CION Investment Corp
6.70
-2.34
-25.91%
BlackRock TCP Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
BlackRock TCP Capital Cuts Dividend Amid Credit Pressures
Negative
Feb 27, 2026
BlackRock TCP Capital Corp., a business development company, reported fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP net investment income of $22.1 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, slightly above its regular dividend of $0.25 per share paid on December 31, 2025. Fo...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
BlackRock TCP Capital Reports Sharp NAV Decline in Q4
Negative
Jan 23, 2026
BlackRock TCP Capital released preliminary, unaudited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, indicating a sharp deterioration in net asset value per share to an estimated range of $7.05–$7.09, down about 19% from $8.71 at September...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.