BlackRock TCP Capital (TCPC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $347.00M
• Dividend Yield: 21.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.16M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: -91.81%
• EPS Growth: 78.46%
• Country: US
• Employees: 19,800
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 84,841,034
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,117,039
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,161,856
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.22
• 1Y Price Target: $3.50
• Price Target Upside: -14.43% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.87
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $176.60M

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▼(-2.20% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/02/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/02/26

The score is held down primarily by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a pressured earnings/NAV narrative from the latest call (19% NAV drop, losses, and lower NII). Financial performance is improving but remains uneven across years, and valuation is mixed due to a negative P/E and a very high dividend yield that may reflect heightened risk.

Positive Factors

Focused middle‑market, senior‑secured lending

TCPC's core business—middle‑market, privately originated debt with emphasis on senior‑secured structures—is a durable income engine. Interest and fee income from sponsor‑backed loans typically generate steady cash yields and lower recovery volatility versus unsecured credit, supporting distributable earnings and risk management over the medium term.

Improved leverage and cleaner balance sheet

A materially de‑levered 2025 balance sheet reduces refinancing and covenant risk and gives the BDC flexibility to deploy capital or absorb future credit losses. Lower structural debt levels improve liquidity headroom and funding optionality, strengthening resilience across a 2–6 month horizon as portfolio remediation continues.

Positive cash generation and recovery

Recovered and generally positive operating and free cash flow supports dividend coverage, reinvestment, and opportunistic buying. While historical year‑to‑year variability exists, recent cash generation provides a durable buffer for distributions and remediation efforts and underpins near‑term capital deployment decisions.

Negative Factors

Sharp NAV decline and dividend cut

A sudden ~19% NAV drop and a dividend reduction reflect realized and unrealized portfolio stress that erodes shareholder capital and reduces distribution visibility. This structural hit weakens investor confidence and constrains the BDC's ability to maintain prior payout levels while it works through credit remediation over subsequent quarters.

Large realized losses and asset liquidations

Significant realized losses materially reduce available capital and NAV, forcing more conservative underwriting and provisioning. Such losses consume retained earnings, limit buybacks/dividends, and can trigger higher regulatory leverage ratios if not offset by asset sales or capital raises, affecting the firm's financial flexibility over months.

Concentration and vintage underwriting risk

Concentration of losses in a small set of holdings and a clear underwriting vintage issue imply structural credit selection weakness for certain periods. That raises the probability of episodic large write‑downs going forward, increases monitoring and due‑diligence costs, and may slow portfolio deployment while management tightens standards.

BlackRock TCP Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. is a business development company specializing in direct equity and debt investments in middle-market, debt securities, senior secured loans, junior loans, originated loans, mezzanine, senior debt instruments, bonds, and secondary-market investments. It typically invests in communication services, public relations services, television, wireless telecommunication services, apparel, textile mills, restaurants, retailing, energy, oil and gas extraction, Patent owners and Lessors, Federal and Federally- Sponsored Credit agencies, insurance, hospital and healthcare centers, Biotechnology, engineering services, heavy electrical equipment, tax accounting, scientific and related consulting services, charter freight air transportation, Information technology consulting, application hosting services, software diagram and design, computer aided design, communication equipment, electronics manufacturing equipment, computer components, chemicals. It seeks to invest in the United States. The fund typically invests between $10 million and $35 million in companies with enterprise values between $100 million and $1500 million including complex situations. It prefers to make equity investments in companies for an ownership stake.

How the Company Makes Money

BlackRock TCP Capital makes money by earning interest income on the loans it provides to middle-market companies. As a business development company, it raises capital from investors and deploys it into debt investments, primarily senior secured loans. The company generates revenue from the interest payments made by its borrowers, and it also seeks capital appreciation from the equity investments it occasionally makes. TCPC's earnings are driven by the spread between the interest income it receives and the cost of funds, as well as by the fees it earns for managing its portfolio. In addition, the company benefits from its affiliation with BlackRock, which provides access to extensive resources and expertise in asset management.

BlackRock TCP Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mid-range fundamentals: income and cash flow are positive in the latest annual period but historically volatile (losses in 2024 and 2022; inconsistent operating/free cash flow). Balance sheet risk appears improved in 2025 with reported debt at zero, but prior years show meaningful leverage and variability.

Income Statement

Results are volatile across the period. Revenue rebounded sharply in 2025 (annual) after an exceptionally weak 2024, and 2025 also shows strong profitability with a ~54% net margin and solid return on equity. However, 2024 posted a sizable net loss with deeply negative margins, and 2022 also dipped into a small loss—highlighting uneven earnings power and higher sensitivity to market/portfolio marks despite generally strong years like 2021 and 2023.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows improved leverage in 2025 (annual) with reported debt at zero and equity of ~$598M, which materially reduces financial risk versus prior years. That said, leverage was meaningful in 2020–2024 (debt typically above equity, with debt-to-equity around ~1.1–1.4), and equity declined from 2024 to 2025 alongside a lower asset base—so while the latest snapshot is cleaner, historical leverage and balance-sheet variability temper the score.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally positive and improved in 2025 (annual) with operating and free cash flow of ~$155M, following strong 2024 operating cash flow (~$293M). The key weakness is inconsistency: 2021 had negative operating/free cash flow despite strong net income, and free cash flow fell sharply in 2023 versus 2022 before recovering. Overall, cash flow is supportive but not consistently stable year to year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	201.79M	20.76M	209.33M	181.00M	165.11M
Gross Profit	0.00	-45.40M	209.33M	181.00M	165.11M
EBITDA	0.00	-62.61M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	109.82M	-63.14M	38.47M	-9.23M	133.79M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.65B	1.92B	1.70B	1.72B	1.89B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	61.08M	91.59M	112.24M	82.44M	19.55M
Total Debt	0.00	1.12B	985.20M	944.01M	1.01B
Total Liabilities	1.05B	1.14B	1.01B	972.60M	1.06B
Stockholders Equity	598.01M	785.12M	687.60M	746.75M	829.46M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	154.92M	293.12M	89.48M	203.95M	-82.61M
Operating Cash Flow	154.92M	293.12M	89.48M	203.95M	-82.61M
Investing Cash Flow	101.40M	0.00	2.97M	151.05M	31.88M
Financing Cash Flow	-185.43M	-313.77M	-62.65M	-141.07M	82.15M

BlackRock TCP Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.09
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCPC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.77, below the 50-day MA of 5.23, and below the 200-day MA of 6.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.47 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TCPC.

BlackRock TCP Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CION	63 Neutral	$412.33M	15.77	3.22%	15.77%	-11.01%	-65.56%
GAIN	61 Neutral	$545.16M	4.41	22.16%	11.02%	-45.46%	134.73%
GLAD	59 Neutral	$411.19M	12.07	7.40%	9.31%	41.12%	-40.68%
PNNT	59 Neutral	$325.17M	12.70	5.38%	16.61%	-3.09%	200.66%
CCAP	58 Neutral	$467.44M	13.59	4.77%	13.20%	-20.18%	-61.90%
TCPC	53 Neutral	$347.00M	-38.33	-1.15%	21.13%	-91.81%	78.46%

BlackRock TCP Capital Corporate Events

BlackRock TCP Capital Cuts Dividend Amid Credit Pressures

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp., a business development company, reported fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP net investment income of $22.1 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, slightly above its regular dividend of $0.25 per share paid on December 31, 2025. For full-year 2025, adjusted net investment income totaled $104.0 million, or $1.22 per diluted share, while the company’s net asset value per share fell to $7.07 as of December 31, 2025 from $8.71 on September 30, 2025.

The sharp 19% NAV decline in the fourth quarter of 2025 was driven by issuer-specific issues, with six portfolio companies accounting for about two-thirds of the drop and roughly 91% of the reduction tied to investments underwritten in 2021 or earlier. Against this backdrop of elevated non-accruals, higher net regulatory leverage of 1.41x, and sizable realized and unrealized losses, the board on February 27, 2026 declared a reduced first-quarter 2026 dividend of $0.17 per share, as the company prioritizes improving portfolio credit quality and continues its shift toward more conservative, senior-secured lending.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCPC) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BlackRock TCP Capital stock, see the TCPC Stock Forecast page.

BlackRock TCP Capital Reports Sharp NAV Decline in Q4

BlackRock TCP Capital released preliminary, unaudited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, indicating a sharp deterioration in net asset value per share to an estimated range of $7.05–$7.09, down about 19% from $8.71 at September 30, 2025, largely due to issuer-specific issues at six portfolio companies that together accounted for roughly two-thirds of the decline. Net investment income per share is expected at $0.24–$0.26, non-accruals rose to about 4.0% of the portfolio at fair value (9.6% at cost), and net regulatory leverage climbed to roughly 1.45x (total debt-to-equity about 1.74x), even as the company maintained approximately $483 million of available leverage and $61.1 million in cash and benefited modestly from a voluntary management fee waiver of about $0.02 per share; at the same time, all 2025 new investments were in first-lien loans and average new position sizes fell, underscoring a shift toward more senior, more granular exposure in response to portfolio stress ahead of final results due on February 27, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCPC) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BlackRock TCP Capital stock, see the TCPC Stock Forecast page.