BlackRock TCP Capital (TCPC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $439.48M
• Dividend Yield: 21.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: -91.81%
• EPS Growth: 78.46%
• Country: US
• Employees: 19,800
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 84,841,034
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,322,714
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,019,397
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 33.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.68
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 362.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -43.65
• 1Y Price Target: $6.25
• Price Target Upside: 20.66% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.87
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $176.47M

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▼(-3.47% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by weakened financial performance (recent losses) and a technically weak price trend below major moving averages. An exceptionally high dividend yield and mixed-but-not-strong earnings-call takeaways provide partial support, while the recent corporate update pointing to a sharp NAV drop adds meaningful risk.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow across multiple recent years shows the BDC’s core lending model can generate recurring distributable cash. That recurring cash supports dividend sustainability and reduces reliance on capital markets during interim portfolio stress periods.

Liquidity Position

A multi-hundred-million dollar liquidity runway provides durable flexibility to fund new first‑lien originations, manage paydowns and distressed workouts, and cover distributions without forced balance sheet sales, reducing refinancing and liquidity risk over the medium term.

Portfolio Seniority & Granularity

Shifting new originations toward first‑lien exposure and smaller average positions increases structural downside protection and diversification. Over time, greater seniority and granular sizing should reduce volatility of recoveries and concentration risk across credit cycles.

Negative Factors

Sharp NAV Decline

A near‑term 19% NAV hit driven by a few issuer‑specific failures signals meaningful portfolio impairment and reduces equity capital available to absorb future credit stress. Such steep NAV volatility undermines long‑term dividend coverage and investor confidence in NAV stability.

Profitability Deterioration

A recent swing to large net losses and sustained negative margins weakens the company’s ability to internally fund distributions and build reserves. Persistent earnings weakness increases dependence on portfolio realizations or external capital, raising medium‑term sustainability risk.

Credit Losses & Asset Quality

Substantial realized losses and issuer‑specific liquidations highlight concentrated credit risk and the potential for recurring write‑downs. Material realized losses degrade NAV, pressure regulatory leverage metrics, and constrain the BDC’s ability to deploy capital opportunistically over the medium term.

BlackRock TCP Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. is a business development company specializing in direct equity and debt investments in middle-market, debt securities, senior secured loans, junior loans, originated loans, mezzanine, senior debt instruments, bonds, and secondary-market investments. It typically invests in communication services, public relations services, television, wireless telecommunication services, apparel, textile mills, restaurants, retailing, energy, oil and gas extraction, Patent owners and Lessors, Federal and Federally- Sponsored Credit agencies, insurance, hospital and healthcare centers, Biotechnology, engineering services, heavy electrical equipment, tax accounting, scientific and related consulting services, charter freight air transportation, Information technology consulting, application hosting services, software diagram and design, computer aided design, communication equipment, electronics manufacturing equipment, computer components, chemicals. It seeks to invest in the United States. The fund typically invests between $10 million and $35 million in companies with enterprise values between $100 million and $1500 million including complex situations. It prefers to make equity investments in companies for an ownership stake.

How the Company Makes Money

BlackRock TCP Capital makes money by earning interest income on the loans it provides to middle-market companies. As a business development company, it raises capital from investors and deploys it into debt investments, primarily senior secured loans. The company generates revenue from the interest payments made by its borrowers, and it also seeks capital appreciation from the equity investments it occasionally makes. TCPC's earnings are driven by the spread between the interest income it receives and the cost of funds, as well as by the fees it earns for managing its portfolio. In addition, the company benefits from its affiliation with BlackRock, which provides access to extensive resources and expertise in asset management.

BlackRock TCP Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow has been a relative strength (mostly positive operating/free cash flow, including strong inflows in 2024 and TTM), but profitability deteriorated sharply in 2024 and TTM remains loss-making. The balance sheet is mixed, with historically elevated leverage and uncertainty around the recent reported shift to lower debt.

Income Statement

Profitability and consistency have weakened. While 2023 showed solid profitability (positive net margin) and revenue growth, results deteriorated sharply in 2024 with a large net loss and deeply negative margins, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) remains loss-making with modest revenue decline. The key strength is that revenue has been higher historically (2020–2023), but the recent swing to losses and margin compression materially raises earnings-quality and stability concerns.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows mixed signals. Leverage was elevated in 2020–2024 (debt-to-equity roughly around the 1.1–1.4 range), which reduces flexibility during weaker earnings periods; however, equity remains sizable and return on equity was positive in stronger years (notably 2021 and 2023). TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows zero reported debt and a low negative return on equity, which would be a positive de-risking if sustainable, but the sharp change versus prior years introduces uncertainty around durability and trend.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has generally been a relative strength. Operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive in most years (2020, 2022–2024 and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), including strong inflows in 2024 and TTM. The main weakness is volatility—2021 showed negative operating/free cash flow, and TTM free cash flow is down meaningfully versus the prior period (negative growth rate), suggesting cash generation may be sensitive to portfolio activity and market conditions.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	66.59M	20.76M	209.33M	181.00M	165.11M	172.10M
Gross Profit	1.04M	-45.40M	209.33M	181.00M	165.11M	172.10M
EBITDA	-8.67M	-62.61M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	-9.19M	-63.14M	38.47M	-9.23M	133.79M	71.37M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.81B	1.92B	1.70B	1.72B	1.89B	1.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	60.99M	91.59M	112.24M	82.44M	19.55M	20.01M
Total Debt	0.00	1.12B	985.20M	944.01M	1.01B	850.02M
Total Liabilities	1.07B	1.14B	1.01B	972.60M	1.06B	907.00M
Stockholders Equity	740.02M	785.12M	687.60M	746.75M	829.46M	764.99M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	134.99M	293.12M	89.48M	203.95M	-82.61M	122.33M
Operating Cash Flow	134.99M	293.12M	89.48M	203.95M	-82.61M	122.33M
Investing Cash Flow	51.05M	0.00	2.97M	151.05M	31.88M	31.88M
Financing Cash Flow	-229.23M	-313.77M	-62.65M	-141.07M	82.15M	-147.17M

BlackRock TCP Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.18
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TCPC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.55, below the 50-day MA of 5.58, and below the 200-day MA of 6.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TCPC.

BlackRock TCP Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GLAD	70 Outperform	$461.12M	8.09	11.86%	9.31%	41.12%	-40.68%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GAIN	67 Neutral	$548.31M	5.55	18.68%	11.02%	-45.46%	134.73%
CCAP	63 Neutral	$524.55M	14.59	4.92%	13.20%	-20.18%	-61.90%
CION	63 Neutral	$476.41M	18.22	3.22%	15.77%	-11.01%	-65.56%
PNNT	54 Neutral	$380.02M	11.61	6.83%	16.61%	-3.09%	200.66%
TCPC	50 Neutral	$439.48M	―	-1.15%	21.13%	-91.81%	78.46%

BlackRock TCP Capital Corporate Events

BlackRock TCP Capital Reports Sharp NAV Decline in Q4

BlackRock TCP Capital released preliminary, unaudited results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, indicating a sharp deterioration in net asset value per share to an estimated range of $7.05–$7.09, down about 19% from $8.71 at September 30, 2025, largely due to issuer-specific issues at six portfolio companies that together accounted for roughly two-thirds of the decline. Net investment income per share is expected at $0.24–$0.26, non-accruals rose to about 4.0% of the portfolio at fair value (9.6% at cost), and net regulatory leverage climbed to roughly 1.45x (total debt-to-equity about 1.74x), even as the company maintained approximately $483 million of available leverage and $61.1 million in cash and benefited modestly from a voluntary management fee waiver of about $0.02 per share; at the same time, all 2025 new investments were in first-lien loans and average new position sizes fell, underscoring a shift toward more senior, more granular exposure in response to portfolio stress ahead of final results due on February 27, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCPC) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BlackRock TCP Capital stock, see the TCPC Stock Forecast page.

BlackRock TCP Capital Reports Strong Q3 Financial Results

On November 6, 2025, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. announced its third quarter financial results, reporting a net investment income of $0.32 per share, surpassing its regular and special dividends. The company declared a fourth quarter dividend of $0.25 per share, payable on December 31, 2025. The company has made strategic progress in reducing non-accruals and diversifying its portfolio, with a focus on expanding deal flow through its partnership with HPS and the Private Financing Solutions platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (TCPC) stock is a Sell with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BlackRock TCP Capital stock, see the TCPC Stock Forecast page.