Vinci Partners Investments (VINP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $648.26M
• Dividend Yield: 4.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 47.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: 81.45%
• EPS Growth: -26.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 594
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 48,778,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 49,209
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 47,305
• PEG Ratio: 0.38
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 24.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.60
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.15
• 1Y Price Target: $15.00
• Price Target Upside: 19.90% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.23
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.04B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $12.50 ▼(-0.08% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/07/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial strength (profitability, improving ROE, and supportive cash generation) and a constructive earnings outlook (FRE/AUM growth and strong fundraising), supported by an attractive dividend yield. These positives are tempered by weak technicals (downtrend/negative MACD) and the notable 2025 revenue contraction, which increases near-term execution risk.

Positive Factors

High Fee-Related Earnings and Margins

Sustained FRE above 30% signals durable, high-margin recurring economics: management fees dominate revenue, so high FRE margins support predictable cash earnings, underpin dividend capacity and fund operations even if performance fees vary, strengthening medium-term earnings resilience.

Conservative Balance Sheet / Low Leverage

Very low leverage in 2025 provides financial flexibility for M&A, GP commitments and distributions. A solid equity base reduces refinancing and solvency risk, enabling the firm to sustain investments into product expansion and absorb volatility in AUM or timing of fee recognition.

Supportive Cash Generation and FCF Growth

Strong cash conversion and rising free cash flow underpin shareholder returns and fund reinvestment. Consistently positive operating cash flow relative to earnings reduces reliance on external financing and supports dividends, buybacks and GP commitments over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

2025 Revenue Contraction

A sharp revenue drop in 2025 signals sensitivity to timing of realizations and product mix shifts; if fundraising or realizations slow, recurring fee growth and performance fees can compress, making earnings and FRE more volatile over the next 2–6 months.

Upfront Advisory Fee Volatility

Dependence on lumpy advisory/upfront fees increases forecasting risk and revenue variability. When upfront fee timing shifts, short- to mid-term FRE and distributable earnings can swing materially, complicating capital allocation and dividend planning across quarters.

Political and Macro Volatility Exposure

Concentration in Latin America exposes fundraising, flows and asset valuations to election-driven policy shifts. Persisting political or macro uncertainty can reduce institutional mandate appetite and delay capital formation, pressuring AUM growth and fee receipts over multiple quarters.

Vinci Partners Investments Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. operates as an asset management firm in Brazil. It operates through six segments: Global Investment Products & Solutions (IP&S), Credit, Private Equity, Equities, Real Assets, and Corporate Advisory. The Global IP&S segment provides access to a network of general partners and asset managers, as well as proprietary investment solutions; multi-asset allocation strategies, and portfolio and management services; and liquid and alternative, separate mandates, commingled funds, brokerage, pension plans, solutions, and Vinci retirement services. Its Credit segment operates public and private credit, opportunistic capital solutions, and agribusiness credit. The Private Equity segment focuses on control and co-control investments, and minority investments in small-to-medium enterprises. Its Equities segment delivers investment solutions across Latin America and other country markets. The Real Assets segment comprises investments focused on assets through real estate, infrastructure, and forestry. Its Corporate Advisory segment offers corporate advisory services, including financial and strategic advisory services, focusing on IPO advisory and mergers and acquisition transactions to entrepreneurs, corporate senior management teams, and boards of directors. The company was formerly known as Vinci Partners Investments Ltd. and changed its name to Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. in July 2025. Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Vinci Partners generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees associated with the funds it manages. Management fees are typically a percentage of the assets under management (AUM), providing a steady income stream as the firm grows its client base and manages more capital. Performance fees are earned when the funds exceed predefined return benchmarks, incentivizing the firm to achieve strong investment performance. Additionally, Vinci Partners may earn advisory fees from strategic partnerships and co-investments in specific projects or funds. The company’s strong reputation and established track record in the Brazilian market also facilitate significant institutional relationships, contributing to a reliable flow of capital into its investment products.

Vinci Partners Investments Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid overall financial profile: strong profitability (2025 gross margin ~94%, net margin ~22%), improving ROE (~10.8%), and supportive cash generation (operating cash flow ~1.73x net income; FCF up ~11.5%). Main risks are the sharp 2025 revenue decline (~-15%) and historical variability in leverage and cash-flow coverage.

Income Statement

Profitability remains strong for an asset manager, with healthy gross and operating margins across the period (2025: gross margin ~94%, net margin ~22%). However, revenue momentum weakened materially in 2025 (about -15% revenue decline) after steady growth in prior years, and net margins are meaningfully below the unusually elevated 2020–2023 levels—pointing to a less favorable earnings mix and/or higher costs relative to the past.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively positioned in the latest year, with low leverage in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~0.06) and a solid equity base. Returns on equity improved to ~10.8% in 2025 from ~6.1% in 2024, signaling better profitability on shareholder capital. The key watchout is volatility in leverage over time (debt-to-equity around ~0.50 in 2023–2024), suggesting capital structure has not been consistently low-risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally supportive: 2025 operating cash flow (~220M) exceeded net income (cash flow about 1.73x net income), and free cash flow grew ~11.5% in 2025. Free cash flow conversion versus net income is decent but not perfect (2025 ~0.82x), and cash-flow-to-earnings coverage dipped meaningfully in 2024 (about 0.60x), indicating some period-to-period variability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	958.20M	665.10M	564.78M	502.27M	493.44M
Gross Profit	901.76M	453.51M	493.92M	358.73M	339.41M
EBITDA	413.32M	260.82M	322.71M	302.77M	284.14M
Net Income	213.31M	118.20M	220.61M	219.42M	208.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.03B	3.59B	2.30B	1.77B	1.65B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.81B	1.75B	1.83B	1.38B	1.48B
Total Debt	127.11M	981.00M	689.90M	261.50M	85.54M
Total Liabilities	1.98B	1.64B	918.95M	391.41M	232.13M
Stockholders Equity	1.98B	1.94B	1.38B	1.37B	1.41B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	181.18M	190.45M	177.44M	111.42M	285.60M
Operating Cash Flow	220.32M	209.77M	214.18M	117.90M	288.69M
Investing Cash Flow	93.68M	-232.13M	138.03M	131.84M	-1.32B
Financing Cash Flow	-265.77M	-429.23M	175.02M	-215.51M	1.05B

Vinci Partners Investments Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.51
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VINP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.96, above the 50-day MA of 11.83, and above the 200-day MA of 10.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VINP.

Vinci Partners Investments Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VINP	73 Outperform	$648.26M	25.23	15.08%	4.56%	81.45%	-26.75%
NCDL	69 Neutral	$660.31M	10.22	8.75%	14.71%	-8.32%	-33.94%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FDUS	66 Neutral	$670.65M	9.74	11.68%	11.47%	-12.17%	-14.93%
SLRC	58 Neutral	$785.59M	9.11	9.32%	10.80%	-6.30%	-6.92%
CCAP	58 Neutral	$480.36M	15.08	4.81%	13.20%	-20.18%	-61.90%
TCPC	53 Neutral	$312.02M	-5.23	-12.44%	21.13%	-91.81%	78.46%

Vinci Partners Investments Corporate Events

Vinci Compass Posts Strong 2025 Results and Declares Dividend After Pan-Regional Expansion

On March 4, 2026, Rio de Janeiro-based Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings, marking its first full year as a pan-regional platform following its combination with Compass and the announced acquisition of Verde. Chief executive Alessandro Horta highlighted robust organic growth, particularly in Credit and Global Investment Products & Solutions, underscoring the firm’s strategy to deepen its leadership in Latin American alternatives and reinforce long-term value creation.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Vinci Compass posted Fee Related Earnings of R$80.4 million, or R$1.23 per common share, with a 32.6% FRE margin, and Adjusted Distributable Earnings of R$81.3 million, or R$1.24 per share. For full-year 2025, Fee Related Earnings reached R$288.4 million, or R$4.52 per share, with a 30.4% FRE margin, while Adjusted Distributable Earnings were R$292.4 million, or R$4.58 per share, and the board approved a quarterly dividend of US$0.17 per share payable on April 2, 2026, signaling confidence in cash generation and shareholder returns.

The company also scheduled an earnings conference call, with live access and replay available through its investor relations website, indicating continued emphasis on investor communication and transparency. Management framed 2025 as a pivotal chapter in consolidating Vinci Compass’s pan-regional footprint and diversifying its revenue streams, which may strengthen its competitive position in Latin America’s alternative asset management landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (VINP) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vinci Partners Investments stock, see the VINP Stock Forecast page.