Vinci Partners Investments (VINP) AI Stock Analysis

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Vinci Partners Investments

(NASDAQ:VINP)

Rating:73Outperform

Price Target:

$10.50

▲(11.70%Upside)

Vinci Partners Investments' overall stock score is driven primarily by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. The technical analysis and valuation present some concerns, with the stock appearing slightly overvalued and displaying neutral momentum. Despite these concerns, the company's strategic growth initiatives and strong fundraising capabilities support its potential for future growth.

Positive Factors

Cross-Selling Opportunities

There are positive cross-selling opportunities from a complementary client base in terms of product and region, leveraging both companies’ regional distribution capabilities.

Market Position

The combination puts the company in an attractive position as one of the largest alternative asset managers in Latin America, with a presence in seven countries and expansion of its LP base by almost 3x.

Valuation

Valuation is attractive especially on a P/FRE basis, as Vinci's FRE is expected to grow at a similar pace to US peers.

Negative Factors

FRE Margin

While the combination should lead to a lower FRE margin, there are opportunities for margin expansion as the company combines its operations, merging back offices and eliminating duplicate roles.

Vinci Partners Investments (VINP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$602.09M

Dividend Yield6.38%

Average Volume (3M)47.39K

Price to Earnings (P/E)23.6

Beta (1Y)0.73

Revenue GrowthN/A

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees244

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength73

IndustryAsset Management

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.17

Shares Outstanding48,778,420

10 Day Avg. Volume36,270

30 Day Avg. Volume47,389

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio2.38

Price to Book (P/B)1.92

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio23.62

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$13.50

Price Target Upside43.62% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Vinci Partners Investments Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVinci Partners Investments Ltd. operates as an asset management platform in Brazil. Its portfolio of investment products and solutions covers private equity, infrastructures, real estate, credit, public equities, hedge funds, and investment products and solutions to institutional and HNWI clients. The company also offers financial and strategic advisory services, focusing primarily on IPO advisory and mergers and acquisition transactions on the sell side or the buy side to entrepreneurs, corporate management teams, and/or boards of directors. Vinci Partners Investments Ltd. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

How the Company Makes MoneyVinci Partners Investments generates revenue through management fees and performance fees from its investment funds. Management fees are typically charged as a percentage of the assets under management (AUM) and provide a steady income stream. Performance fees, on the other hand, are earned when the funds exceed predetermined performance benchmarks, aligning the company's interests with those of its investors. Additionally, Vinci Partners may earn income through advisory services and strategic partnerships that enhance its investment strategies and expand its product offerings.

Vinci Partners Investments Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -5.24%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects strong performance in fundraising, earnings growth, and strategic integration, positioning Vinci Compass well for future opportunities, especially in Latin America. However, challenges such as FX impacts, net outflows in IP&S, and weak corporate advisory revenue pose concerns.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Fundraising in First Quarter

Vinci Compass delivered strong fundraising results with BRL1.1 billion in capital subscriptions during the first quarter of 2025, marking the most active first quarter in recent years.

Growth in Fee-Related Earnings

Fee-related earnings totaled BRL66 million in the first quarter, up 22% year-over-year. Adjusted distributable earnings reached BRL62 million or BRL0.98 per share, up 26% and 6% year-over-year.

Successful Integration and Expansion

The company has made significant progress in integrating platforms after the combination of Vinci and Compass, accelerating value creation and laying a strong foundation for sustainable growth.

Strong Investor Interest in Latin America

Growing investor interest in geographically diversified portfolios, especially in Latin America, which is seen as a stable region with no significant regional conflicts, poised to attract important inflows.

Positive Outlook in Equity and Real Assets Segments

Opportunities in Latin American equities and the real assets segment, with a focus on renewable energy and infrastructure projects, are expected to drive growth.

Negative Updates

Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

The appreciation of the Brazilian real negatively impacted reported AUM, with a decrease of 7% quarter over quarter due to FX effects.

Net Outflows in Global IP&S Segment

Net outflows affected the global IP&S segment, primarily due to capital returns and net flows in other sub-strategies.

Weak Corporate Advisory Performance

The corporate advisory segment had a weak quarter, with no material revenue recorded, affecting the firm's ability to dilute operating costs.

Company Guidance

In the first quarter of 2025, Vinci Compass reported strong financial performance and strategic progress following the successful merger with Compass. The company achieved fee-related earnings of BRL65.7 million, or BRL1.04 per share, and adjusted distributable earnings of BRL62.3 million, or BRL0.98 per share. A quarterly dividend of BRL0.15 per common share was declared, payable on June 10th. Despite typical first-quarter seasonality, the firm raised BRL1.1 billion in capital subscriptions, marking its most active first quarter in recent years. Key highlights included the second closing of their private credit fund in Peru, raising over BRL600 million, and successful fundraising activities for their opportunistic credit and agribusiness funds. The company also reported a 22% year-over-year increase in fee-related earnings to BRL66 million and a 26% increase in adjusted distributable earnings. Vinci Compass continues to focus on strategic growth in its credit segment and anticipates a supportive interest rate environment in Brazil, with potential rate cuts expected later in the year.

Vinci Partners Investments Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vinci Partners Investments exhibits robust financial performance with significant revenue growth and strong gross profit margins, although net profit margins have decreased. The balance sheet is stable with a solid equity position despite increased leverage. Cash flows are healthy, supporting operational and strategic initiatives.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Vinci Partners Investments shows a strong financial performance with a significant revenue growth rate of 32.2% from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin remains robust at 100%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin decreased to 19.7% due to a notable decline in net income. Despite this, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, supporting profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 54.2% in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio increased to 0.5, suggesting higher leverage, but remains manageable. Return on equity decreased to 6.1% due to lower net income, impacting profitability slightly. Overall, the balance sheet is stable with a sound equity base.

Cash Flow

Positive

Vinci Partners Investments demonstrates a solid cash flow position with a consistent operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.77. The free cash flow grew by 7.3% from 2023 to 2024, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly lower at 1.61, showing room for improvement in converting earnings to cash flow.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
665.10M	564.78M	502.27M	493.44M	348.72M
	Gross Profit
453.51M	399.28M	358.73M	339.41M	274.35M
	EBIT
188.80M	202.16M	178.75M	242.46M	215.65M
	EBITDA
260.82M	210.61M	302.77M	284.14M	238.24M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
118.20M	220.61M	219.42M	208.62M	170.20M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.75B	1.83B	1.38B	1.48B	91.70M
	Total Assets
3.59B	2.30B	1.77B	1.65B	328.52M
	Total Debt
981.00M	689.90M	261.50M	85.54M	106.20M
	Net Debt
757.70M	674.01M	231.39M	63.87M	93.10M
	Total Liabilities
1.64B	918.95M	391.41M	232.13M	309.29M
	Stockholders Equity
1.94B	1.38B	1.37B	1.41B	19.22M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
190.45M	177.44M	111.42M	285.60M	193.31M
	Operating Cash Flow
209.77M	214.18M	117.90M	288.69M	195.33M
	Investing Cash Flow
-232.13M	138.03M	131.84M	-1.32B	75.31M
	Financing Cash Flow
-429.23M	175.02M	-215.51M	1.05B	-193.55M

Vinci Partners Investments Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price9.40

Price Trends

50DMA

9.53

Negative

100DMA

9.71

Negative

200DMA

9.72

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.05

Positive

RSI

42.32

Neutral

STOCH

34.74

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VINP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.62, below the 50-day MA of 9.53, and below the 200-day MA of 9.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VINP.

Vinci Partners Investments Risk Analysis

Vinci Partners Investments disclosed 107 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vinci Partners Investments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks

Until the completion or termination of the Compass Transaction, we and Compass are prohibited from entering into certain transactions and taking certain actions that might otherwise be beneficial to us, Compass and/or our respective shareholders. Q4, 2023

Failure to complete the Compass Transaction could negatively impact our stock price and our future business and financial results. Q4, 2023

The market price for our Class A common shares following the completion of the Compass Transaction may be affected by factors different from, or in addition to, those that historically have affected or currently affect the market prices of our Class A common shares. Q4, 2023

Vinci Partners Investments Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VINP	73 Outperform	$602.09M	23.56	7.67%	6.38%	―	―
NOAH	71 Outperform	$758.17M	4.41	4.76%	17.53%	-18.39%	-33.85%
TRIN	71 Outperform	$938.73M	6.60	17.56%	14.12%	46.14%	34.91%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.77B	9.71	7.85%	78.06%	12.07%	-7.97%
FDUS	61 Neutral	$714.24M	8.36	12.10%	11.05%	2.31%	-15.06%
CCAP	61 Neutral	$548.51M	11.07	6.70%	11.35%	12.83%	-13.29%
TCPC	58 Neutral	$663.29M	―	-5.45%	14.93%	8.24%	-207.60%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

VINP

Vinci Partners Investments

9.40

-0.66

-6.56%

FDUS

Fidus Investment

19.54

2.17

12.49%

NOAH

Noah Holdings

12.12

3.94

48.17%

TCPC

BlackRock TCP Capital

7.77

-1.72

-18.12%

CCAP

Crescent Capital BDC

14.80

-1.87

-11.22%

TRIN

Trinity Capital

14.45

1.53

11.84%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.