Trinity Capital (TRIN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.23B
• Dividend Yield: 13.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.54
• Revenue Growth: 33.44%
• EPS Growth: 25.22%
• Country: US
• Employees: 58
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.52
• Shares Outstanding: 75,683,360
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,167,321
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,097,111
• PEG Ratio: 1.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.21
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.28
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.41
• 1Y Price Target: $16.40
• Price Target Upside: 1.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.09
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $342.61M

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $18.00 ▲(11.04% Upside)

TRIN’s score is driven primarily by strong profitability and a supportive earnings backdrop (rising NII, NAV and AUM with generally solid credit quality), plus favorable valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are partially offset by cash-flow volatility in recent years and some portfolio-specific credit/event risks, while technicals remain broadly strong but somewhat overbought.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Trinity Capital's significant revenue growth reflects its successful investment strategy and strong market demand, indicating a robust business model.

Strong Credit Quality

Maintaining strong credit quality ensures stability and reduces risk, supporting long-term financial health and investor confidence.

Record Net Asset Value Growth

Consistent NAV growth indicates effective asset management and enhances the company's ability to attract and retain investors.

Negative Factors

Negative Cash Flow

Persistent negative cash flow can strain liquidity and limit operational flexibility, posing risks to long-term sustainability.

High Liabilities

High liabilities can increase financial risk and limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities, affecting future performance.

Challenges with Specific Investments

Issues with specific investments like Nomad Health highlight potential risks in portfolio management and impact overall returns.

Trinity Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Trinity Capital Inc. is a business development company. It is a venture capital firm specializing in venture debt to growth stage companies looking for loans and/or equipment financing. Trinity Capital Inc. was founded in 2019 is based in Phoenix, Arizona with additional offices in Lutherville-Timonium, Maryland, San Diego, California and Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Trinity Capital generates revenue primarily through interest income from its debt investments and fees associated with its equity investments. The company typically provides secured loans and other forms of financing to growth-stage companies, which allows it to earn interest on the principal amount of these loans. Additionally, Trinity may earn management fees for advising and managing its investment portfolio. The company's partnerships with emerging companies and its strategic focus on sectors with high growth potential contribute to its revenue model, while the recovery of the economy and the performance of its portfolio companies can significantly impact its earnings.

Trinity Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is strong (TTM net margin ~56%, EBIT margin ~78%) with improving annual results into 2024, but the overall financial profile is tempered by historically volatile earnings and especially inconsistent cash generation (large negative operating cash flow in 2023–2024 despite a positive TTM run-rate). Balance sheet comparability risk also exists given the sharp shift from meaningful leverage in prior years to no debt reported in TTM.

Income Statement

TRIN shows strong profitability and improving scale. In TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), revenue rose to ~$285M (up ~3.4%), with very high profitability (net margin ~56% and EBIT margin ~78%). Annual results also improved from 2023 to 2024 as revenue grew (~$175M to ~$237M) and net income increased (~$77M to ~$116M). The main weakness is uneven history: 2022 and 2020 were loss years with negative net margins, indicating earnings can be volatile across cycles.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet strength looks improved in the most recent period, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) showing no debt reported and equity of ~$998M on ~$2.25B of assets, alongside a solid return on equity (~16.6%). However, prior years carried meaningful leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.0–1.33 from 2020–2024, including ~$878M of debt in 2024). This shift suggests either a major deleveraging or data timing/classification changes—either way, it raises comparability risk when assessing leverage trends.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been inconsistent. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is positive with operating cash flow of ~$86M and free cash flow of ~$86M, roughly in line with net income. But the prior two annual periods show sizable cash outflows (operating cash flow of about -$317M in 2024 and -$96M in 2023), and free cash flow growth is sharply negative in the latest TTM period. The key strength is the current positive run-rate; the key concern is the recurring pattern of negative operating cash flow in multiple years.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	284.52M	237.44M	174.84M	43.54M	175.48M	40.59M
Gross Profit	208.78M	175.49M	141.75M	9.39M	155.09M	23.82M
EBITDA	144.67M	118.27M	121.19M	-27.99M	132.57M	-6.06M
Net Income	142.00M	115.60M	76.89M	-30.38M	132.32M	-6.11M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.25B	1.77B	1.31B	1.13B	937.12M	559.71M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.47M	9.63M	4.76M	10.61M	31.68M	44.66M
Total Debt	0.00	877.67M	646.89M	610.59M	455.35M	299.75M
Total Liabilities	1.25B	951.26M	699.82M	666.79M	490.58M	320.96M
Stockholders Equity	998.26M	822.98M	611.16M	459.65M	446.53M	238.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	85.97M	-317.33M	-99.00M	54.72M	-242.88M	-58.48M
Operating Cash Flow	86.46M	-316.91M	-96.26M	54.91M	-241.67M	-58.23M
Investing Cash Flow	-439.04M	-420.00K	-2.74M	-290.85M	-1.20M	-91.98M
Financing Cash Flow	353.51M	322.19M	93.15M	199.81M	228.52M	211.31M

Trinity Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 16.21
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRIN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.10, above the 50-day MA of 14.52, and above the 200-day MA of 13.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.52 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TRIN.

Trinity Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRIN	77 Outperform	$1.23B	7.42	16.18%	13.53%	33.44%	25.22%
CSWC	68 Neutral	$1.36B	15.24	9.80%	11.90%	25.28%	-1.69%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
NMFC	67 Neutral	$940.78M	13.98	5.43%	14.17%	36.15%	-38.59%
BCSF	67 Neutral	$891.94M	9.56	8.18%	13.18%	-26.08%	-27.65%
GSBD	65 Neutral	$1.06B	8.16	8.75%	17.34%	-16.58%	65.24%
CGBD	60 Neutral	$937.53M	11.17	7.03%	13.63%	-8.23%	-35.72%

Trinity Capital Corporate Events

Trinity Capital Reports Record 2025 Investment and Commitments

On January 13, 2026, Trinity Capital reported that in the fourth quarter of 2025 it funded approximately $435 million in investments and originated about $543 million in new commitments, underscoring strong demand for its secured loans, equipment financings and equity-related investments. For the full year 2025, the company achieved record levels of activity with roughly $1.5 billion in funded investments and $2.1 billion in new commitments, while receiving about $826 million in repayments and exits, signaling robust portfolio turnover and expansion ahead of its scheduled release of complete 2025 financial results on February 25, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRIN) stock is a Buy with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trinity Capital stock, see the TRIN Stock Forecast page.

Trinity Capital Secures $200M Loan Facility Agreement

On November 5, 2025, Trinity Capital Inc.’s subsidiary, TrinCap Term Funding, LLC, entered into a credit agreement with KeyBank National Association for a secured term loan facility of $200 million. This agreement, which includes a two-year initial period and a two-year amortization period, is collateralized by all investment assets held by TrinCap and contains customary financial covenants and events of default, impacting the company’s financial strategy and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRIN) stock is a Buy with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trinity Capital stock, see the TRIN Stock Forecast page.

Trinity Capital Reports Record Q3 2025 Financial Results

On November 5, 2025, Trinity Capital Inc. reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a record funding of $471 million and a 22.3% year-over-year growth in total investment income. The company achieved a net asset value of $998 million, reflecting a 31.9% increase from the previous year. The results demonstrate strong momentum in Trinity’s operations, with significant investment activity and consistent dividend distributions, underscoring its robust market positioning and commitment to delivering value to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRIN) stock is a Buy with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trinity Capital stock, see the TRIN Stock Forecast page.