Trinity Capital (TRIN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.14B
• Dividend Yield: 13.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.30M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.57
• Revenue Growth: 33.44%
• EPS Growth: 25.22%
• Country: US
• Employees: 58
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.52
• Shares Outstanding: 75,683,360
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,379,397
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,301,507
• PEG Ratio: -1.38
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.63
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.03
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.30
• 1Y Price Target: $17.20
• Price Target Upside: 13.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.08
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $351.39M

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.00 ▲(5.26% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and very high yield) and a strong earnings-call outlook (record NII, dividend coverage, NAV/AUM growth, low non-accruals). It is held back most by weak cash-flow quality in the financial statements and bearish technical momentum (negative MACD, weak RSI, and price below key moving averages).

Positive Factors

Record net investment income & dividend coverage

Record NII demonstrates the firm’s recurring core earnings power from its lending book. Consistent coverage of cash distributions (102% in Q4) and the shift to monthly payouts reflect durable cash-generative capacity and a shareholder-first allocation that supports predictable income for investors.

High portfolio yield and strong ROE

Sustained high portfolio yields and above-peer ROE indicate a structurally attractive underwriting franchise in venture and growth lending. Strong yield spreads provide margin to absorb credit losses and support long-term net investment income even through credit cycles, key for a BDC model.

Scaling AUM and managed-funds platform

Rapid AUM growth and an expanding managed‑funds/co‑investment platform diversify capital sources and fee streams. Scaling increases capital capacity, supports origination volume, and reduces reliance on single funding channels, improving long-term franchise sustainability and return potential.

Negative Factors

Persistent negative operating/free cash flow

Recurrent negative operating and free cash flow shows earnings do not consistently convert to cash, increasing dependence on external funding and capital markets. Over months this can pressure dividend sustainability, necessitate dilutive raises or debt issuance, and constrain autonomous growth.

Balance-sheet discontinuity: debt reported $0 in 2025

A sudden reporting drop to zero debt creates comparability and transparency issues. It may reflect accounting/structural funding changes rather than true deleveraging, complicating assessment of leverage risk and funding resiliency during stress, which matters over the medium term.

Execution risk on large unfunded commitments

A sizeable pipeline that is largely diligence‑gated creates uncertainty around future deployment and income realization. If commitments don’t fully convert or are delayed, forecasted NII and AUM growth may underperform, exposing the firm to timing, selection and concentration risks.

Trinity Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Trinity Capital Inc. is a business development company. It is a venture capital firm specializing in venture debt to growth stage companies looking for loans and/or equipment financing. Trinity Capital Inc. was founded in 2019 is based in Phoenix, Arizona with additional offices in Lutherville-Timonium, Maryland, San Diego, California and Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Trinity Capital generates revenue primarily through interest income from its debt investments and fees associated with its equity investments. The company typically provides secured loans and other forms of financing to growth-stage companies, which allows it to earn interest on the principal amount of these loans. Additionally, Trinity may earn management fees for advising and managing its investment portfolio. The company's partnerships with emerging companies and its strategic focus on sectors with high growth potential contribute to its revenue model, while the recovery of the economy and the performance of its portfolio companies can significantly impact its earnings.

Trinity Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is strong (high margins and solid net income in 2023–2025) and the equity base has scaled meaningfully, but financial quality is constrained by persistently negative operating/free cash flow (including -$535.5M in 2025) and a notable balance-sheet discontinuity with debt dropping to $0 in 2025 versus 2024, reducing comparability.

Income Statement

Profitability improved materially versus earlier loss years (2020 and 2022), with strong profit levels in 2023–2024 and 2025 remaining solid (net income of $146.7M on $279.5M revenue in 2025). Margins were very strong in 2023–2024 (net profit margin ~44%–49%), supporting earnings quality. The main weakness is growth volatility: revenue swung sharply (very high growth in 2021/2023, +35.8% in 2024) and then turned slightly negative in 2025 (-1.8%), signaling a less consistent top-line trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet scaled significantly over time, with assets rising from $559.7M (2020) to $2.48B (2025) and equity increasing to $1.09B (2025), which is a notable capital base. Leverage was meaningful in 2021–2024, with debt generally around ~1.0–1.3x equity (e.g., ~1.07x in 2024), which can amplify returns but also increases risk in weaker credit/market environments. 2025 shows total debt reported as $0 (a sharp change versus 2024’s $877.7M), which improves stated leverage but is a major discontinuity that warrants caution when interpreting year-to-year balance-sheet risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the key weak spot: operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative in most years (2020, 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025) and deteriorated further in absolute terms in 2025 (operating cash flow and free cash flow both -$535.5M). While 2022 showed positive operating and free cash flow, the overall pattern is volatile and frequently negative, suggesting earnings are not consistently translating into cash and increasing reliance on funding or balance-sheet flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	279.51M	237.44M	174.84M	43.54M	175.48M
Gross Profit	228.11M	175.49M	141.75M	9.39M	155.09M
EBITDA	216.17M	118.27M	121.19M	-27.99M	132.57M
Net Income	146.67M	115.60M	76.89M	-30.38M	132.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.48B	1.77B	1.31B	1.13B	937.12M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.11M	9.63M	4.76M	10.61M	31.68M
Total Debt	1.31B	877.67M	646.89M	610.59M	455.35M
Total Liabilities	1.39B	951.26M	699.82M	666.79M	490.58M
Stockholders Equity	1.09B	822.98M	611.16M	459.65M	446.53M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-535.50M	-317.33M	-99.00M	54.72M	-242.88M
Operating Cash Flow	-535.50M	-316.91M	-96.26M	54.91M	-241.67M
Investing Cash Flow	-785.00K	-420.00K	-2.74M	-290.85M	-1.20M
Financing Cash Flow	545.77M	322.19M	93.15M	199.81M	228.52M

Trinity Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRIN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.77, below the 50-day MA of 15.39, and above the 200-day MA of 14.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TRIN.

Trinity Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CSWC	72 Outperform	$1.36B	12.59	11.11%	11.90%	25.28%	-1.69%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
TRIN	66 Neutral	$1.14B	6.87	16.18%	13.53%	33.44%	25.22%
GSBD	66 Neutral	$1.04B	8.02	8.75%	17.34%	-16.58%	65.24%
BCSF	62 Neutral	$852.37M	9.14	8.18%	13.18%	-26.08%	-27.65%
NMFC	61 Neutral	$841.75M	59.91	1.30%	14.17%	36.15%	-38.59%
CGBD	60 Neutral	$834.74M	11.30	6.74%	13.63%	-8.23%	-35.72%

Trinity Capital Corporate Events

Trinity Capital Posts Strong Q4 and 2025 Results

On February 25, 2026, Trinity Capital reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing strong growth in income and scale. Total investment income reached $83.2 million in Q4, up 17.5% year-over-year, driving net investment income of $39.9 million, or $0.52 per share, and a 15.3% return on average equity, while net asset value rose to $1.1 billion, or $13.42 per share, supported by accretive capital issuance and investment gains.

For full-year 2025, Trinity generated record net investment income of $144.1 million, or $2.08 per share, as total investment income climbed 23.5% to $293.7 million and total gross investments funded increased 21.3% to $1.5 billion. The investment portfolio expanded to $2.4 billion in fair value across 176 companies, non-accruals remained low at 0.7% of the debt portfolio, and the company marked its sixth year of consistent or rising dividends, underscoring the scalability of its platform and its strategy to deliver stable, long-term returns.

In the fourth quarter, Trinity originated $543.1 million in new commitments and funded $434.8 million, with a heavy tilt toward secured loans and equipment financings, while exits and repayments totaled $218.8 million, reflecting active portfolio turnover. Management highlighted the strength of its internally managed structure and the growth of its managed funds business as key differentiators that support a more robust capitalization model and continued momentum across its diversified lending verticals.

Operationally, Q4 2025 saw higher operating and interest expenses due to increased headcount, professional fees, and a larger debt base, but earnings still outpaced dividend payouts, leaving undistributed earnings spillover of $68.7 million at year-end. Net unrealized appreciation of $33.4 million, mainly from debt and warrant investments, offset realized losses tied to debt conversions, contributing to a $39.5 million net increase in net assets from operations and reinforcing Trinity’s balance sheet growth and dividend-paying capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRIN) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trinity Capital stock, see the TRIN Stock Forecast page.

Trinity Capital Reports Record 2025 Investment and Commitments

On January 13, 2026, Trinity Capital reported that in the fourth quarter of 2025 it funded approximately $435 million in investments and originated about $543 million in new commitments, underscoring strong demand for its secured loans, equipment financings and equity-related investments. For the full year 2025, the company achieved record levels of activity with roughly $1.5 billion in funded investments and $2.1 billion in new commitments, while receiving about $826 million in repayments and exits, signaling robust portfolio turnover and expansion ahead of its scheduled release of complete 2025 financial results on February 25, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRIN) stock is a Buy with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trinity Capital stock, see the TRIN Stock Forecast page.