Bain Capital Specialty Finance (BCSF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $888.05M
• Dividend Yield: 13.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 466.45K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: -26.08%
• EPS Growth: -27.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 64,868,510
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 502,506
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 466,454
• PEG Ratio: -3.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 11.78
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.53
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 23.23
• 1Y Price Target: $15.00
• Price Target Upside: 11.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.00 ▲(3.70% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/30/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/30/26

BCSF scores as moderately attractive: solid underlying profitability and cash generation are the main support, with valuation boosted by a low P/E and very high yield. The score is held back by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and some near-term fundamental uncertainty (TTM revenue softness and balance-sheet data inconsistency), while earnings-call commentary and recent funding/dividend actions are net supportive but not enough to offset the technical weakness.

Positive Factors

Dividend coverage / net investment income

Consistent net investment income that exceeds the regular dividend demonstrates durable earnings coverage from the loan portfolio. This fundamental cash generation supports the company's ability to continue distributions, reduces reliance on capital transactions for payouts, and underpins long-term income credibility.

Credit quality / low non-accruals

Low and stable non-accrual percentages point to disciplined underwriting and stable portfolio credit performance. For a middle-market-focused BDC, sustained low defaults support predictable interest income, limit capital impairment risk and allow steady deployment of capital into new originations over multiple quarters.

Access to long-term funding

Issuing long-dated fixed-rate notes materially strengthens the firm’s funding profile and reduces near-term refinancing risk. Reliable market access and longer-duration liabilities support scaled origination, better asset-liability matching, and strategic growth of the lending book over the medium term.

Negative Factors

NAV volatility from idiosyncratic markdowns

A single-loan markdown materially impacted NAV, highlighting concentration and valuation risk in a fair-value driven portfolio. Persistent NAV swings can erode investor equity, complicate dividend coverage assessments, and raise the probability of future write-downs that harm long-term returns.

Declining portfolio yield and investment income

A structural decline in portfolio yield reduces net investment income and compresses spreads on new originations. Over several quarters this lowers recurring earnings and constrains the BDC’s ability to grow distributable cash flow, especially if competition or rate moves limit repricing power.

Balance-sheet/leverage reporting uncertainty

An unclear leverage profile creates persistent uncertainty about capital structure, risk tolerance and return potential. If deleveraging is real, future ROE and lending capacity may be constrained; if a reporting anomaly, it indicates governance or disclosure weaknesses investors must monitor.

Bain Capital Specialty Finance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bain Capital Specialty Finance, Inc. is business development company specializing in direct loans to middle-market companies. The fund seeks to invest in senior investments with a first or second lien on collateral, senior first lien, stretch senior, senior second lien, unitranche, mezzanine debt, junior securities, other junior investments, and secondary purchases of assets or portfolios that primarily consist of middle-market corporate debt. It typically invests in companies with EBITDA between $10 million and $150 million.

How the Company Makes Money

BCSF generates revenue primarily through interest income on the loans and debt securities it holds in its investment portfolio. The company earns interest from its investments in first and second lien loans, which are typically higher-yielding compared to traditional fixed-income securities. Additionally, BCSF may generate revenue from management fees charged to its portfolio companies and from capital gains realized upon the sale of its equity investments. The company's revenue model is further supported by the growing demand for middle-market financing solutions, as well as strategic partnerships with financial institutions and industry experts that enhance its deal sourcing and investment capabilities.

Bain Capital Specialty Finance Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are generally healthy with strong profitability and consistently positive operating/free cash flow, but recent TTM revenue decline and softer cash-flow growth temper momentum. Balance-sheet confidence is reduced by an apparent TTM debt shift versus prior years.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong across the period, with high net income margins in the annual reports and solid earnings in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Revenue expanded materially from 2020 to 2024, but momentum has softened recently: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is down versus the prior year and margins appear lower than the 2024 annual level. A few reported margin figures (e.g., unusually high/negative values in earlier years) look inconsistent, which reduces confidence in the margin trend even though earnings remain healthy.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows moderate leverage in most annual periods (debt running a bit above equity), paired with a steady return on equity around the high-single to low-double digits—supportive of ongoing profitability. However, TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows zero total debt versus meaningful debt in prior years, suggesting either a major deleveraging event or a data inconsistency; that uncertainty tempers the score. Overall asset levels are stable and equity has been steady to slightly rising, but leverage remains a key point to monitor based on the historical pattern.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally solid: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive, and free cash flow closely tracks net income across periods, indicating earnings quality is reasonably supported by cash. That said, free cash flow growth is negative in the most recent periods (TTM and 2024), implying some softening in cash generation. Also, operating cash flow coverage is volatile across years (including a negative reading in 2022), pointing to periodic swings in cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	192.05M	212.88M	218.00M	168.82M	175.41M	77.22M
Gross Profit	110.18M	138.19M	137.99M	116.51M	124.06M	13.91M
EBITDA	97.34M	123.89M	126.73M	106.32M	119.94M	8.51M
Net Income	93.11M	119.42M	123.38M	105.48M	119.81M	8.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.72B	2.63B	2.47B	2.59B	2.57B	2.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	67.04M	53.52M	49.40M	59.78M	117.42M	54.68M
Total Debt	1.50B	1.39B	1.26B	1.39B	1.41B	1.46B
Total Liabilities	1.59B	1.49B	1.34B	1.48B	1.47B	1.54B
Stockholders Equity	1.13B	1.14B	1.14B	1.12B	1.10B	1.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	87.80M	112.58M	125.87M	114.21M	54.49M	75.94M
Operating Cash Flow	87.80M	112.58M	125.87M	114.21M	54.49M	75.94M
Investing Cash Flow	-105.41M	-139.68M	93.40M	-431.04M	211.06M	13.48M
Financing Cash Flow	42.88M	14.25M	-231.43M	238.33M	-138.63M	-76.52M

Bain Capital Specialty Finance Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BCSF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.34, below the 50-day MA of 13.66, and below the 200-day MA of 13.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BCSF.

Bain Capital Specialty Finance Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SLRC	70 Outperform	$816.68M	9.07	9.07%	10.80%	-6.30%	-6.92%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
NMFC	67 Neutral	$854.13M	12.69	5.43%	14.17%	36.15%	-38.59%
GSBD	66 Neutral	$1.06B	8.15	8.75%	17.34%	-16.58%	65.24%
BCSF	62 Neutral	$888.05M	9.52	8.18%	13.18%	-26.08%	-27.65%
PFLT	60 Neutral	$851.29M	24.61	3.44%	13.64%	36.91%	-48.79%
CGBD	60 Neutral	$859.53M	10.25	7.03%	13.63%	-8.23%	-35.72%

Bain Capital Specialty Finance Corporate Events

Bain Capital Specialty Finance Issues New Senior Unsecured Notes

On January 29, 2026, Bain Capital Specialty Finance, Inc. entered into a Fourth Supplemental Indenture with U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, covering the issuance of $350 million in 5.950% notes due March 1, 2031, which were sold in a registered offering that closed the same day. The notes, general unsecured obligations ranking senior to subordinated debt and pari passu with other unsecured unsubordinated obligations, carry semi-annual interest payments starting September 1, 2026, include change-of-control repurchase protections and Investment Company Act-related asset coverage covenants, and generated approximately $342.5 million in net proceeds that the company plans to use to repay outstanding secured indebtedness under its financing arrangements and for general corporate purposes, effectively extending its debt maturity profile and shifting its capital structure toward more unsecured funding.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCSF) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bain Capital Specialty Finance stock, see the BCSF Stock Forecast page.

Bain Capital Specialty Finance Issues $350 Million 2031 Notes

On January 22, 2026, Bain Capital Specialty Finance, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with BCSF Advisors, LP and a syndicate of underwriters led by Wells Fargo Securities, J.P. Morgan Securities, and SMBC Nikko Securities America to issue and sell $350 million of 5.950% notes due 2031. The transaction, conducted under the company’s existing shelf registration, adds a sizable tranche of long-dated, fixed-rate debt to its capital structure, reinforcing its funding base and potentially supporting future lending activity, while customary indemnification and covenant provisions align with standard market practice and help manage legal and underwriting risks for all parties involved.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCSF) stock is a Buy with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bain Capital Specialty Finance stock, see the BCSF Stock Forecast page.

Bain Capital Specialty Finance Declares Special Cash Dividend

On December 22, 2025, Bain Capital Specialty Finance, Inc. announced that its board had declared a special cash dividend of $0.15 per share, to be paid on January 26, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2025. The company said the special distribution, driven by over-earnings during the year, is intended to help manage its tax and regulated investment company distribution requirements, while supporting disciplined capital management and maintaining spillover income to underpin the stability of its regular dividend and the gradual growth of net asset value per share over time.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCSF) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bain Capital Specialty Finance stock, see the BCSF Stock Forecast page.

Bain Capital Specialty Finance Announces Q3 Results and Dividend

On November 10, 2025, Bain Capital Specialty Finance announced its financial results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, and declared a fourth quarter dividend of $0.42 per share, along with an additional $0.03 per share dividend previously announced. The company reported strong earnings driven by high net investment income, which exceeded their regular dividend, and maintained healthy credit performance. The announcement reflects Bain Capital Specialty Finance’s robust operational performance and strategic positioning in the middle-market lending space, potentially benefiting stakeholders with continued high-quality investment opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCSF) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bain Capital Specialty Finance stock, see the BCSF Stock Forecast page.

Bain Capital Appoints New General Counsel Sabrina Rusnak-Carlson

On November 5, 2025, Bain Capital Specialty Finance appointed Sabrina Rusnak-Carlson as General Counsel. Her extensive experience in credit and public equity law, along with her previous roles at First Eagle Alternative Credit and Proskauer Rose LLP, positions her to significantly contribute to the company’s legal and strategic operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (BCSF) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bain Capital Specialty Finance stock, see the BCSF Stock Forecast page.