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Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)
NYSE:NOAH

Noah Holdings (NOAH) AI Stock Analysis

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NOAH

Noah Holdings

(NYSE:NOAH)

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Neutral 65 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
â–¼(-2.91% Downside)
Noah Holdings' overall stock score reflects strong financial stability and attractive valuation, offset by technical weakness and revenue challenges. The company's strategic growth initiatives and profitability improvements are positive, but declining revenues and bearish technical indicators weigh on the score.
Positive Factors
Overseas Market Expansion
The significant growth in overseas markets indicates successful international expansion, diversifying revenue streams and reducing reliance on domestic markets.
Strong Cash Flow Generation
Robust operating cash flows provide financial flexibility, enabling the company to invest in growth opportunities and manage economic downturns effectively.
Strategic Partnerships
This partnership highlights Noah Holdings' commitment to innovation and diversification, potentially opening new revenue streams in the growing digital asset space.
Negative Factors
Declining Domestic Revenue
The significant decline in domestic revenue suggests challenges in the local market, which could impact overall revenue stability if not addressed.
Inconsistent Revenue Growth
Inconsistent revenue growth poses a risk to long-term profitability and could hinder strategic planning and investment in future initiatives.
Decline in Free Cash Flow
A decline in free cash flow may limit the company's ability to fund new projects and return capital to shareholders, affecting long-term financial health.

Noah Holdings (NOAH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Noah Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNoah Holdings Limited (NOAH) is a leading wealth and asset management services provider in China, focusing on high-net-worth individuals and institutional clients. The company operates primarily in the financial services sector, offering a range of products including wealth management, investment advisory services, and private equity funds. Noah is known for its innovative investment solutions and access to alternative assets, which cater to the growing demand for diversified investment strategies among affluent clients.
How the Company Makes MoneyNoah Holdings generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, it earns fees from wealth management services, where it charges clients for advisory services and management of their investment portfolios. The company also collects performance-based fees from its private equity funds and other investment products, which are tied to the success of the investments managed. Additionally, Noah benefits from commissions and management fees associated with the sale of financial products, including mutual funds and insurance products. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and asset managers enhance its product offerings and contribute to revenue growth. The firm’s focus on high-net-worth individuals allows it to command premium fees for its personalized and sophisticated investment solutions.

Noah Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 26, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant improvements in profitability and strategic growth in investment products and global operations. However, these positive trends were partially offset by declines in insurance revenue and overall revenue, resulting in a balanced outlook.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Improvement in Profitability
Non-GAAP net income increased by over 50% year-on-year, reaching RMB 229 million for the third quarter, reflecting a solid bottom line performance.
Growth in Investment Products
Investment products accounted for 28% of new revenue, up from 18% a year ago, indicating an improvement in revenue mix.
Overseas AUM and AUA Growth
Overseas AUA reached USD 9.3 billion, up 6.8% year-on-year, and overseas AUM was USD 5.9 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year.
Expansion of Global Operations
The establishment of 4 overseas booking centers and obtaining a U.S. broker-dealer license demonstrate progress in global operational expansion.
AI Implementation
Launch of AI RM systems and AI-driven operations, enhancing client engagement and operational efficiency.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline in Insurance Segments
Net revenues from overseas wealth management decreased by 22.7% year-on-year due to a decline in insurance products distribution. Domestic insurance revenues also fell by 44.8% year-on-year.
Overall Revenue Decline
Total net revenues for the quarter were RMB 633 million, reflecting a 7.4% year-over-year decline due to lower insurance income amid intensified competition.
Company Guidance
During the Noah Holdings Limited Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided comprehensive guidance reflecting several key metrics. Non-GAAP net income for the third quarter increased by over 50% year-on-year to RMB 229 million, contributing to a cumulative non-GAAP net income of RMB 587 million for the first three quarters of 2025. Despite a slight year-on-year decline in net revenues to RMB 633 million, sequential growth was recorded for the second consecutive quarter. Investment products accounted for approximately 28% of new revenue, a significant increase from 18% the previous year. Overseas operations saw a notable transaction value increase in U.S. dollar private secondary products, nearly 2.5x year-on-year to USD 688 million, while domestic transaction value for RMB-denominated private secondary products grew 206% year-on-year to RMB 8.97 billion. The company's strategy emphasized strengthening core capabilities in investment product selection, expanding AI capabilities, and leveraging overseas booking centers to enhance global operations. Active client numbers rose, with registered clients up 13.1% year-on-year. The company maintained a strong balance sheet with cash and short-term investments totaling RMB 5.0 billion and no interest-bearing liabilities, positioning it well for future growth and technology investments.

Noah Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Noah Holdings shows strong profitability and a solid balance sheet, with high margins and low debt levels. However, challenges include declining revenue and inconsistent cash flow generation, which could impact future financial stability.
Income Statement
Noah Holdings has experienced fluctuations in revenue over the years, with a notable decline in the most recent year. While the company maintains strong gross and net profit margins, the recent revenue decline and inconsistent revenue growth over the past few years present a challenge for future profitability. High margins indicate efficient cost management, but growth sustainability remains a concern.
Balance Sheet
The company exhibits a robust balance sheet with a strong equity base and low debt levels, leading to a favorable debt-to-equity ratio. The high equity ratio indicates financial stability, and the substantial cash position enhances liquidity. Despite these strengths, the declining trend in total assets and equity over the last two years poses potential risks to future growth.
Cash Flow
Noah Holdings demonstrates strong cash flow generation, particularly in operating cash flows, although there is a notable decrease in free cash flow in the latest year. The company has managed to maintain a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio. However, the decline in free cash flow growth and increased financing outflows could impact future cash reserves.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.53B2.60B3.29B3.10B4.29B3.31B
Gross Profit1.04B1.25B1.84B1.66B2.12B2.61B
EBITDA656.50M790.57M1.26B1.24B1.35B1.36B
Net Income655.78M475.44M1.01B976.57M1.31B-745.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets11.55B11.78B12.69B11.80B10.89B9.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.99B5.10B5.57B4.72B3.50B5.12B
Total Debt59.63M135.99M327.06M177.99M222.24M280.86M
Total Liabilities1.65B1.77B2.26B2.30B2.75B2.12B
Stockholders Equity9.90B9.95B10.31B9.41B8.04B7.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00305.16M1.16B570.19M-749.38M744.74M
Operating Cash Flow0.00387.34M1.32B632.90M1.52B796.35M
Investing Cash Flow0.00-840.82M-247.14M74.29M-2.57B352.58M
Financing Cash Flow0.00-1.13B-199.84M233.76M-513.12M-371.42M

Noah Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price11.33
Price Trends
50DMA
10.58
Positive
100DMA
11.18
Negative
200DMA
10.64
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.10
Negative
RSI
64.66
Neutral
STOCH
85.94
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOAH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.16, above the 50-day MA of 10.58, and above the 200-day MA of 10.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.94 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NOAH.

Noah Holdings Risk Analysis

Noah Holdings disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Noah Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Noah Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$648.45M8.808.46%14.71%-8.32%-33.94%
73
Outperform
$827.24M27.4510.40%4.56%81.45%-26.75%
72
Outperform
$823.77M9.399.07%10.80%-6.30%-6.92%
68
Neutral
$701.23M8.4311.92%11.47%-12.17%-14.93%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
67
Neutral
$878.32M9.708.18%13.18%-26.08%-27.65%
65
Neutral
$742.14M8.436.53%11.65%-7.77%13.95%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NOAH
Noah Holdings
11.04
1.82
19.74%
FDUS
Fidus Investment
19.82
1.02
5.43%
SLRC
SLR Investment Corp.
15.51
0.87
5.94%
BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance
13.95
-1.07
-7.12%
VINP
Vinci Partners Investments
13.26
4.49
51.20%
NCDL
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
13.52
-1.37
-9.20%

Noah Holdings Corporate Events

Noah Holdings Issues New Shares to Settle Client Obligations at Year-End 2025
Jan 2, 2026

On December 31, 2025, Noah Holdings Private Wealth and Asset Management Limited increased its issued share capital by 2,706,880 new ordinary shares, representing about 0.814% of its previously issued share base, taking the total number of issued shares to 335,258,287 as of that date. The shares were issued under an existing issuance mandate approved at the 2025 annual general meeting as part of the vesting of restricted share units granted under a prior settlement plan to affected clients who had accepted a settlement offer as of April 16, 2025, underscoring Noah’s use of equity to fulfill client settlement obligations and slightly diluting existing shareholders while advancing the completion of its settlement program.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOAH) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noah Holdings stock, see the NOAH Stock Forecast page.

Noah Holdings Details Late-December NYSE Share Buybacks Under 2025 Mandate
Dec 31, 2025

On December 30, 2025, Noah Holdings reported that its issued share capital remained unchanged at 332,551,407 ordinary shares as of December 29, 2025, while detailing recent share repurchase activity conducted on the New York Stock Exchange under a mandate approved at its June 12, 2025 annual general meeting. Between December 23 and December 29, 2025 (U.S. Eastern Time), the group repurchased a total of 181,180 ordinary shares equivalent (via ADSs), including 142,885 ordinary shares bought on December 29 at USD 1.999 per share for an aggregate USD 285,555.67, with all repurchased shares designated for cancellation; these moves signal ongoing capital management efforts that may modestly enhance earnings per share and reflect management’s confidence in the company’s valuation, though they represent only a small fraction of total shares outstanding.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOAH) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noah Holdings stock, see the NOAH Stock Forecast page.

Noah Holdings Executes ADS Share Repurchase on NYSE Under 2025 Mandate
Dec 29, 2025

On December 23, 2025, Noah Holdings Private Wealth and Asset Management Limited repurchased 28,267 American depositary shares, equivalent to 141,335 ordinary shares, on the New York Stock Exchange under a repurchase mandate approved on June 12, 2025. The buyback, executed at a weighted average price of US$9.876 per ADS (US$1.975 per ordinary share) for a total consideration of about US$279,000, represented approximately 0.043% of the company’s issued share capital at the time and will be cancelled, with the company confirming compliance with Hong Kong listing rules and U.S. market regulations. Although the transaction did not change the total number of issued shares as of the disclosure date, the move signals continued implementation of Noah’s capital management program and may be viewed by investors as a sign of management’s confidence in the firm’s valuation and long-term prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOAH) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noah Holdings stock, see the NOAH Stock Forecast page.

Noah Holdings Grants RSUs to Key Staff to Support Global Expansion Strategy
Dec 22, 2025

On December 20, 2025 (U.S. Eastern Time), Noah Holdings Limited granted 20,000 restricted share units, representing 200,000 shares or about 0.06% of its issued share capital (excluding treasury shares), to two employee participants under its 2022 Share Incentive Plan as part of a broader effort to support its globalization strategy. The RSUs, which carry no purchase price, vest 25% immediately and the remainder in equal tranches over the following three years, subject to continued employment, tailored performance targets linked to metrics such as group revenue and adjusted net income, and strict compliance and clawback provisions, underscoring the company’s emphasis on aligning key overseas talent with long‑term shareholder value and operational goals while tightly managing conduct and performance risk.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOAH) stock is a Hold with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noah Holdings stock, see the NOAH Stock Forecast page.

Noah Holdings Announces November 2025 Share Capital Adjustments
Dec 4, 2025

In November 2025, Noah Holdings Limited reported movements in its share capital, with the total number of issued shares increasing to 331,686,407. The company executed a significant cancellation of 6,762,680 treasury shares on November 21, 2025, which were previously repurchased on the New York Stock Exchange. This adjustment reflects the company’s strategic management of its share capital and could impact its market positioning by optimizing its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOAH) stock is a Hold with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noah Holdings stock, see the NOAH Stock Forecast page.

Noah Holdings Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results with Increased Net Income
Nov 25, 2025

Noah Holdings Limited announced its unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a net revenue of RMB632.9 million, a 7.4% decrease from the same period in 2024, mainly due to reduced revenues from insurance product distribution. Despite a decline in income from operations by 28.6%, the company saw a significant 62.6% increase in net income attributable to shareholders, driven by a rise in the fair value of investments in affiliates. The company also reported a 19.1% increase in the aggregate value of investment products distributed, with notable growth in private secondary products. Noah’s operational updates highlighted an increase in registered and active clients, with an expanded coverage network in mainland China.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOAH) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noah Holdings stock, see the NOAH Stock Forecast page.

Noah Holdings Cancels 6.7 Million Treasury Shares in Strategic Move
Nov 25, 2025

On November 21, 2025, Noah Holdings Limited announced the cancellation of 6,762,680 treasury shares, which were repurchased as American Depositary Shares (ADSs) on the New York Stock Exchange between December 2, 2024, and May 28, 2025. This move is part of the company’s strategic management of its share capital, potentially impacting its market positioning by optimizing its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOAH) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noah Holdings stock, see the NOAH Stock Forecast page.

Noah Holdings to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results
Nov 14, 2025

Noah Holdings announced that its board of directors will meet on November 25, 2025, to consider and approve the unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2025. The results will be published on November 26, 2025, and a conference call will follow to discuss the outcomes and recent business activities. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOAH) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noah Holdings stock, see the NOAH Stock Forecast page.

Noah Holdings Reports Stable Share Capital for October 2025
Nov 7, 2025

Noah Holdings Limited submitted a monthly return for October 2025, detailing no changes in its authorized or issued share capital. The report, dated November 7, 2025, confirms compliance with Hong Kong Exchange listing rules and highlights the company’s stable share structure, with no new shares issued or treasury shares transferred during the month. This stability in share capital indicates a steady operational phase for the company, maintaining its market position without significant shifts in equity structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOAH) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noah Holdings stock, see the NOAH Stock Forecast page.

Noah Holdings Reports Share Increase for September 2025
Oct 9, 2025

Noah Holdings Limited reported a minor increase in its issued shares for September 2025, as disclosed in their monthly return to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company issued an additional 28,860 ordinary shares, bringing the total to 337,654,818 shares, while the treasury shares remained unchanged. This adjustment reflects ongoing activities under their 2022 Share Incentive Plan and RSU Plan, which are part of their strategic initiatives to manage equity and incentivize stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOAH) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noah Holdings stock, see the NOAH Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 27, 2025