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Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)
:NOAH
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Noah Holdings
(NYSE:NOAH)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(13.73%Upside)
Positive Factors
Operating Profit
Improving operating profit with a recovery of 70% quarter-over-quarter and 56% year-over-year, supported by overseas insurance sales and cost control.
Overseas Revenue
Overseas revenue increased by 35.3% quarter-over-quarter and 28.9% year-over-year, accounting for 54.7% of gross revenue.
Shareholder Returns
Good shareholder return, including a 50% dividend payout and a US$50 million repurchase plan, supports the share price against an uncertain macro environment.
Negative Factors
Client Franchise
Client franchise might face some short-term impact from domestic restructuring, with core client numbers down 0.8% quarter-over-quarter and assets under administration down 2%.
Noah Holdings (NOAH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$802.08M
Dividend Yield9.37%
Average Volume (3M)120.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.0
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth-18.39%
EPS Growth-45.23%
CountryUS
Employees1,990
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.33
Shares Outstanding67,517,200
10 Day Avg. Volume78,883
30 Day Avg. Volume120,058
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.66
Price to Book (P/B)0.12
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.50Price Target Upside13.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering0
Noah Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNoah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with the focus on investment and asset allocation services for high net worth individuals and enterprises in Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Asset Management, and Other Businesses. It offers investment products, including domestic and overseas publicly-raised and public securities investment funds, privately-raised investment funds, and private equity products; customized value-added financial services, such as investor education and trust services, as well as insurance brokerage services; and insurance products. The company also provides onshore and offshore private equity, real estate, public securities, multi-strategy, and other investment products, as well as lending services. Noah Holdings Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
How the Company Makes MoneyNoah Holdings generates revenue through management fees and performance-based fees derived from its wealth and asset management services. The company's primary revenue streams include fees charged for managing client assets, which are often a percentage of the assets under management (AUM), and performance fees, which are contingent upon achieving specific investment returns. Additionally, Noah Holdings earns transaction-based fees from distributing financial products and services. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with financial institutions and investment product providers, enhancing its product offerings and expanding its client base. By focusing on high net worth individuals, Noah Holdings capitalizes on the growing demand for sophisticated financial solutions in China.
Noah Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 28, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 30.58%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 01, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed performance with significant growth in non-GAAP net income and overseas business, but challenges in total net revenue and domestic market performance. The company shows commitment to shareholder returns and strategic expansions, despite facing competitive and market challenges.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in Non-GAAP Net Income
Non-GAAP net income in the first quarter was RMB 169 million, up 4.7% from the same period last year and 27.4% sequentially, due to a drop in operating costs and expenses by 18.8%.
Overseas Expansion and Growth
Revenue contribution from overseas private investment products grew 20.3%, and overseas AUM reached USD 5.9 billion, up 14.2%. The number of overseas relationship managers increased by 44% from last year.
Significant Transaction Value in Domestic Secondary Products
Transaction value of renminbi-denominated private secondary products was RMB 3.3 billion, up 2.6x from last year.
Strong Operating Profit Growth
Operating profit surged by 53.1% year-over-year and 35.2% sequentially to RMB 186 million in the first quarter, with the operating profit margin increasing to 30.3%.
Commitment to Shareholder Returns
The company implemented a USD 50 million share buyback program and plans to distribute annual and special dividends totaling RMB 550 million.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Total Net Revenue
Total net revenue in Q1 fell 5.4% from the same period last year, due to a decline in revenue from overseas insurance products by 22.8% and other domestic products.
Challenges in Domestic Market
Net revenues from Mainland China were RMB 310 million, down 9.4%, mainly due to lower recurring service fees from private equity products and distributions of domestic insurance products.
Competitive Overseas Insurance Market
Net revenues from overseas insurance were RMB 30 million, down 17.8%, with strong competition in Hong Kong affecting performance.
Decline in Domestic Insurance Revenue
Net revenues from domestic insurance in Q1 were RMB 6.4 million, down 55.6% due to lower distribution of domestic insurance products.
Company Guidance
During Noah's 2025 First Quarter Earnings Call, the company provided guidance on various metrics and strategic directions. Non-GAAP net income for Q1 was RMB 169 million, marking a 4.7% increase year-over-year and a 27.4% rise sequentially, attributed to an 18.8% reduction in operating costs. Despite a challenging global economy, revenue from renminbi-denominated private secondary products surged 2.6x from the previous year, contributing a 9.4% increase in revenue. Overseas investment products also saw a 20.3% revenue growth, while overseas insurance products experienced a 22.8% decline. Overall, total net revenue fell by 5.4% year-over-year. The company's overseas operations showed a stable net revenue of RMB 304 million, with an increase in overseas AUM by 14.2% to USD 5.9 billion. Noah's strategic initiatives include growing its overseas teams, expanding market presence in regions such as Singapore and Southeast Asia, and enhancing client services with a broader product range. The company plans to focus on insurance sales via commission-only agents and investing in AI technologies to bolster online services. Additionally, Noah announced a share buyback program and plans to distribute RMB 550 million in dividends, representing 100% of its non-GAAP net income for 2024.Noah Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Noah Holdings shows a mixed financial performance with strong profitability and a solid balance sheet, countered by declining revenue and inconsistent cash flow generation. The company's ability to manage costs effectively is a key strength, but the challenges in sustaining revenue growth and maintaining cash flow levels could affect future financial stability and expansion.Income Statement
Noah Holdings has experienced fluctuations in revenue over the years, with a notable decline in the most recent year. While the company maintains strong gross and net profit margins, the recent revenue decline and inconsistent revenue growth over the past few years present a challenge for future profitability. High margins indicate efficient cost management, but growth sustainability remains a concern.60
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company exhibits a robust balance sheet with a strong equity base and low debt levels, leading to a favorable debt-to-equity ratio. The high equity ratio indicates financial stability, and the substantial cash position enhances liquidity. Despite these strengths, the declining trend in total assets and equity over the last two years poses potential risks to future growth.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Noah Holdings demonstrates strong cash flow generation, particularly in operating cash flows, although there is a notable decrease in free cash flow in the latest year. The company has managed to maintain a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio. However, the decline in free cash flow growth and increased financing outflows could impact future cash reserves.65
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.60B | 3.29B | 3.10B | 4.29B | 3.31B |
| Gross Profit | 1.25B | 1.84B | 1.54B | 2.12B | 1.80B |
| EBITDA | 790.57M | 1.26B | 1.24B | 1.35B | 1.36B |
| Net Income | 475.44M | 1.01B | 976.57M | 1.00B | -843.78M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 11.78B | 12.69B | 11.80B | 10.89B | 9.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.10B | 5.57B | 4.72B | 3.50B | 5.12B |
| Total Debt | 120.61M | 138.36M | 167.53M | 130.96M | 272.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.77B | 2.26B | 2.30B | 2.75B | 2.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.95B | 10.31B | 9.41B | 8.14B | 7.28B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 305.16M | 1.16B | 570.19M | -749.38M | 744.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 387.34M | 1.32B | 632.90M | 1.52B | 796.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -840.82M | -247.14M | 74.29M | -2.57B | 352.58M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.13B | -199.84M | 233.76M | -513.12M | -371.42M |
Noah Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
11.87
Price Trends
11.08
Positive
9.93
Positive
10.27
Positive
Market Momentum
0.32
Positive
51.42
Neutral
28.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOAH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.10, above the 50-day MA of 11.08, and above the 200-day MA of 10.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NOAH.
Noah Holdings Risk Analysis
Noah Holdings disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Noah Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Noah Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $969.12M | 6.84 | 17.56% | 13.61% | 46.14% | 34.91% | |
74 Outperform | $609.68M | 24.16 | 7.67% | 6.54% | ― | ― | |
73 Outperform | $802.08M | 12.05 | 4.76% | 9.37% | -18.39% | -45.23% | |
67 Neutral | $17.78B | 11.60 | 9.11% | 3.88% | 10.92% | -3.96% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NOAH
Noah Holdings
12.15
5.33
78.15%
VINP
Vinci Partners Investments
9.48
-0.66
-6.51%
TRIN
Trinity Capital
14.91
2.66
21.71%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.