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Noah Holdings (NOAH)
NYSE:NOAH
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Noah Holdings
(NYSE:NOAH)
64Neutral
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Improving operating profit while 3Q24 operating profit (ex government subsidy) recovered 70% QoQ/56% YoY, helped by overseas insurance sales and cost control.
Overseas Revenue
Overseas revenue was up +35.3% q-q/+28.9% y-y in 3Q24, to account for 54.7% of gross revenue in 3Q24.
Shareholder Returns
Good shareholder return, including 50% dividend payout and US$50mn repurchase plan, to support the share price against a still uncertain macro environment.
Negative Factors
Client Franchise
Client franchise might face some short-term impact from domestic restructuring: core client number was -0.8% QoQ while AUA was -2% QoQ.
Noah Holdings (NOAH) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$646.58M
Dividend Yield10.94%
Average Volume (3M)142.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.1
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth-21.91%
EPS Growth146.56%
CountryUS
Employees1,990
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength89
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding67,472,496
10 Day Avg. Volume107,325
30 Day Avg. Volume142,671
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.50Price Target Upside20.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
Noah Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNoah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with the focus on investment and asset allocation services for high net worth individuals and enterprises in Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Asset Management, and Other Businesses. It offers investment products, including domestic and overseas publicly-raised and public securities investment funds, privately-raised investment funds, and private equity products; customized value-added financial services, such as investor education and trust services, as well as insurance brokerage services; and insurance products. The company also provides onshore and offshore private equity, real estate, public securities, multi-strategy, and other investment products, as well as lending services. Noah Holdings Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
How the Company Makes MoneyNoah Holdings generates revenue primarily through its wealth management and asset management services. The wealth management segment involves distributing and managing financial products such as fixed income, private equity, public securities, and insurance products, earning fees and commissions from the sale and management of these products. The asset management segment includes managing private equity funds, real estate funds, and other alternative investment products, generating income from management fees based on assets under management (AUM) and performance fees contingent on the funds' success. The company's earnings are further supported by its financial advisory services, providing consulting and strategic planning to its clients, which also contributes to its revenue through service fees. Noah Holdings has established significant partnerships with financial institutions and investment firms, enhancing its product offerings and market reach, which are crucial factors in driving its earnings.
Noah Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Noah Holdings has a solid balance sheet with low debt and high margins, but faces challenges with declining revenue and inconsistent cash flow generation. The company's ability to manage costs effectively is a key strength, yet sustaining revenue growth and maintaining cash flow levels remain concerns.Income Statement
Noah Holdings has experienced fluctuations in revenue over the years, with a notable decline in the most recent year. While the company maintains strong gross and net profit margins, the recent revenue decline and inconsistent revenue growth over the past few years present a challenge for future profitability. High margins indicate efficient cost management, but growth sustainability remains a concern.―
Balance Sheet
The company exhibits a robust balance sheet with a strong equity base and low debt levels, leading to a favorable debt-to-equity ratio. The high equity ratio indicates financial stability, and the substantial cash position enhances liquidity. Despite these strengths, the declining trend in total assets and equity over the last two years poses potential risks to future growth.75
Cash Flow
Noah Holdings demonstrates strong cash flow generation, particularly in operating cash flows, although there is a notable decrease in free cash flow in the latest year. The company has managed to maintain a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio. However, the decline in free cash flow growth and increased financing outflows could impact future cash reserves.―
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 2.60B | 3.29B | 3.10B | 4.29B | 3.31B | Gross Profit |
| 1.25B | 1.84B | 1.54B | 2.12B | 1.80B | EBIT |
| 633.89M | 1.10B | 1.09B | 1.20B | 1.26B | EBITDA |
| 790.57M | 1.26B | 1.24B | 1.35B | 1.36B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 475.44M | 1.01B | 976.57M | 1.00B | -843.78M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 5.10B | 5.57B | 4.72B | 3.50B | 5.12B | Total Assets |
| 11.78B | 12.69B | 11.80B | 10.89B | 9.40B | Total Debt |
| 120.61M | 138.36M | 167.53M | 130.96M | 272.21M | Net Debt |
| -3.70B | -5.05B | -4.24B | -3.27B | -4.73B | Total Liabilities |
| 1.77B | 2.26B | 2.30B | 2.75B | 2.12B | Stockholders Equity |
| 9.95B | 10.31B | 9.41B | 8.14B | 7.28B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 305.16M | 1.16B | 570.19M | -749.38M | 744.74M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 387.34M | 1.32B | 632.90M | 1.52B | 796.35M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -840.82M | -247.14M | 74.29M | -2.57B | 352.58M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -1.13B | -199.84M | 233.76M | -513.12M | -371.42M |
Noah Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
9.53
Price Trends
9.84
Negative
10.49
Negative
10.51
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.03
Negative
53.49
Neutral
61.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOAH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.11, below the 50-day MA of 9.84, and below the 200-day MA of 10.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NOAH.
Noah Holdings Risk Analysis
Noah Holdings disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Noah Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Noah Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $633.09M | 24.67 | 7.57% | <0.01% | ― | ― | |
68 Neutral | $900.37M | 6.82 | 17.56% | 14.75% | 46.14% | 34.91% | |
64 Neutral | $646.58M | 10.06 | 4.69% | 10.94% | -21.91% | 146.56% | |
64 Neutral | $12.57B | 9.74 | 7.88% | 16985.68% | 12.42% | -5.45% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NOAH
Noah Holdings
9.53
-1.78
-15.74%
VINP
Vinci Partners Investments
10.09
-0.15
-1.46%
TRIN
Trinity Capital
14.25
1.33
10.29%
Noah Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 25, 2025
(Q4-2024)
| % Change Since: -15.51%|
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While there is significant growth in overseas business and alternative investment products, the company faces challenges with declining revenues, restructuring costs, and market pressures in the domestic segment.Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Expansion of Overseas Business
Overseas net revenues accounted for 48% of total net revenues in 2024, up from 44% last year. The number of overseas relationship managers increased by 55.1% from last year, and the overseas client base grew by 15.8%.
Increase in Overseas Investment Products
Transaction value of overseas primary and private secondary products grew 45% and 22% respectively, year over year. USD-denominated AUM grew by 15.1% year over year to USD 5.8 billion.
Launch of New International Brands
Noah launched new internationally focused brands including Arc, Olive Asset Management, and Glory Family Heritage to lead efforts overseas.
Significant Increase in Alternative Investment Products
For overseas private equity, private credit, and other primary market funds, USD 663 million was raised, a 44.9% year-on-year increase.
Negative Updates
Decline in Overall Revenue and Net Income
Full-year net revenues decreased by 21.1%, and non-GAAP net income fell by 46% to RMB 550 million.
Domestic Market Challenges
Net revenues from Mainland China were RMB 1.4 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 27.5% due to subdued market environment and regulatory challenges.
Restructuring Costs and Increased Tax Rate
The company faced upfront restructuring costs and an increased effective tax rate of 31.5% in 2024.
Decline in Insurance Revenue
Revenue from overseas insurance products decreased by 21.9%, with the domestic insurance brokerage business hitting a new low of RMB 43 million.
Company Guidance
During the call, Noah provided guidance on several key metrics and strategic priorities for 2025. The company's full-year net revenues for 2024 were reported at RMB 22.6 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of 21.1%, primarily affected by reduced distribution of domestic and overseas insurance products and recurring service fees from domestic private equity products. Non-GAAP net income fell by 46% to RMB 550 million, impacted by upfront restructuring costs and an increased effective tax rate of 31.5%. Despite these challenges, Noah emphasized its focus on expanding its overseas presence, with overseas net revenues contributing 48% to total net revenues, up from 44% the previous year. The number of overseas relationship managers reached 138, marking a 55.1% increase, and the company's overseas AUM grew by 15.1% to USD 5.8 billion. For 2025, Noah outlined priorities including ensuring regulatory compliance, expanding its overseas relationship manager team, growing its commission-only insurance agents, optimizing global investment solutions, and enhancing technology to better serve clients. Noah also announced a dividend of RMB 550 million, reflecting 100% of its non-GAAP net income, and continued its share repurchase program. The company remains focused on positioning itself as the preferred wealth management platform for global Mandarin-speaking clients.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.