Noah Holdings (NOAH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $787.52M
• Dividend Yield: 10.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 300.18K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: -7.74%
• EPS Growth: -15.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,990
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 67,530,960
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 195,033
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 300,177
• PEG Ratio: -0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.46
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.05
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.17
• 1Y Price Target: $15.50
• Price Target Upside: 27.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▲(2.80% Upside)

Noah Holdings' overall stock score is driven by its strong valuation metrics, including a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield, which suggest potential undervaluation. The earnings call provided a positive outlook with strong growth in net income and overseas expansion, although domestic challenges remain. The technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, which could pose short-term risks. Financial performance is mixed, with strong profitability but concerns over revenue and cash flow sustainability.

Positive Factors

Overseas Market Expansion

The significant growth in overseas markets indicates a successful diversification strategy, reducing reliance on domestic markets and enhancing global presence.

Strong Cash Flow Generation

Robust operating cash flow supports the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and maintain financial flexibility, crucial for long-term stability.

Strategic Partnerships

This partnership highlights Noah Holdings' commitment to innovation and digital asset integration, potentially opening new revenue streams and enhancing competitive positioning.

Negative Factors

Decline in Domestic Revenue

The significant decline in domestic revenue poses a challenge to sustaining overall revenue growth, impacting future profitability and market share in China.

Inconsistent Revenue Growth

Inconsistent revenue growth undermines financial predictability and may hinder strategic planning and investment in long-term initiatives.

Decline in Free Cash Flow

The decline in free cash flow growth could constrain the company's ability to fund new projects and return capital to shareholders, affecting long-term financial health.

Noah Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Noah Holdings Limited is a leading wealth management and technology platform in China, focused on providing high-net-worth individuals and institutional clients with comprehensive financial services. The company operates through two main segments: Wealth Management and Asset Management. Its core offerings include investment advisory, fund distribution, and private equity investments, leveraging innovative technology solutions to enhance client experiences and investment outcomes.

How the Company Makes Money

Noah Holdings generates revenue primarily through fees associated with its wealth management services, including advisory fees, management fees, and performance-based fees from its investment products. The key revenue streams include commissions from the sale of investment products, fees for asset management services, and advisory fees from clients seeking tailored investment solutions. Additionally, strategic partnerships with financial institutions and asset managers enhance its product offerings, contributing to its earnings. The firm also benefits from a growing affluent client base in China, which drives demand for its services.

Noah Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Noah Holdings shows a mixed financial performance with strong profitability and a solid balance sheet, countered by declining revenue and inconsistent cash flow generation. The company's ability to manage costs effectively is a key strength, but the challenges in sustaining revenue growth and maintaining cash flow levels could affect future financial stability and expansion.

Income Statement

Noah Holdings has experienced fluctuations in revenue over the years, with a notable decline in the most recent year. While the company maintains strong gross and net profit margins, the recent revenue decline and inconsistent revenue growth over the past few years present a challenge for future profitability. High margins indicate efficient cost management, but growth sustainability remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The company exhibits a robust balance sheet with a strong equity base and low debt levels, leading to a favorable debt-to-equity ratio. The high equity ratio indicates financial stability, and the substantial cash position enhances liquidity. Despite these strengths, the declining trend in total assets and equity over the last two years poses potential risks to future growth.

Cash Flow

Noah Holdings demonstrates strong cash flow generation, particularly in operating cash flows, although there is a notable decrease in free cash flow in the latest year. The company has managed to maintain a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio. However, the decline in free cash flow growth and increased financing outflows could impact future cash reserves.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.58B	2.60B	3.29B	3.10B	4.29B	3.31B
Gross Profit	1.08B	1.25B	1.84B	1.66B	2.12B	1.80B
EBITDA	725.42M	790.57M	1.26B	1.24B	1.35B	1.36B
Net Income	571.71M	475.44M	1.01B	976.57M	1.31B	-745.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.74B	11.78B	12.69B	11.80B	10.89B	9.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.42B	5.10B	5.57B	4.72B	3.50B	5.12B
Total Debt	69.60M	120.61M	138.36M	167.53M	130.96M	304.92M
Total Liabilities	2.08B	1.77B	2.26B	2.30B	2.75B	2.12B
Stockholders Equity	9.59B	9.95B	10.31B	9.41B	8.14B	7.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	305.16M	1.16B	570.19M	-749.38M	744.74M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	387.34M	1.32B	632.90M	1.52B	796.35M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-840.82M	-247.14M	74.29M	-2.57B	352.58M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.13B	-199.84M	233.76M	-513.12M	-371.42M

Noah Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.16
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOAH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.69, above the 50-day MA of 11.95, and above the 200-day MA of 10.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NOAH.

Noah Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VINP	80 Outperform	$671.03M	22.29	6.09%	5.75%	53.35%	-24.09%
NCDL	75 Outperform	$675.62M	7.55	―	14.62%	13.19%	-18.24%
SLRC	71 Outperform	$824.32M	9.39	―	10.85%	5.87%	-12.64%
NOAH	68 Neutral	$787.52M	10.06	5.90%	10.08%	-7.74%	-15.34%
FDUS	68 Neutral	$719.27M	8.78	11.41%	11.12%	-14.09%	-27.46%
BCSF	66 Neutral	$908.16M	8.57	―	12.86%	-3.29%	-16.86%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Noah Holdings Corporate Events

Noah Holdings Releases 2025 Interim Report

Noah Holdings Limited released its 2025 Interim Report on September 17, 2025. This report, filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, highlights the company’s financial performance and strategic initiatives for the year. The release of this report is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s operations and market positioning in the private wealth and asset management industry.

Noah Holdings Announces Share Issuance Under Settlement Plan

On September 12, 2025, Noah Holdings Limited announced changes in its issued shares as part of its New Settlement Plan. The company issued 28,860 new ordinary shares, representing a 0.0087% increase in its existing shares, under an issuance mandate approved at the 2025 annual general meeting. This move is part of a broader strategy to settle with affected clients, demonstrating Noah Holdings’ commitment to regulatory compliance and shareholder value enhancement.

Noah Holdings Reports August 2025 Share Movements

On September 5, 2025, Noah Holdings Limited reported its monthly return for equity issuers and Hong Kong Depositary Receipts for August 2025. The report highlighted a minor increase in issued shares, with a total of 39,970 new ordinary shares issued. This update reflects the company’s ongoing compliance with regulatory requirements and its efforts to manage share capital effectively, which could have implications for stakeholders regarding the company’s financial health and market strategies.

Noah Holdings Commits $50 Million to Olive Digital Fund

On August 27, 2025, Noah Holdings Limited, through its subsidiary Joy Triple Star, committed to a $50 million investment in the Olive Digital Fund. This strategic move aims to enhance returns through a risk-defined private credit strategy while gaining exposure to the digital asset ecosystem. The subscription is considered a discloseable transaction under Hong Kong Listing Rules, reflecting Noah Holdings’ efforts to diversify and build capabilities in digital assets.

Noah Holdings Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results

On August 28, 2025, Noah Holdings Limited announced its unaudited financial results for the second quarter of 2025, revealing a 2.2% increase in net revenues to RMB629.5 million compared to the same period in 2024. This growth was driven by increased distribution of investment products, particularly overseas private secondary products. The company also saw a significant 79.0% increase in net income attributable to shareholders, reaching RMB178.6 million, due to higher revenues and an increase in the fair value of funds managed by its subsidiary, Gopher. The number of registered and active clients also grew, indicating a strong market presence and operational expansion. The strategic changes in reporting structure and operational adjustments are expected to provide clearer insights into the financial performance of its business segments.

Noah Holdings Announces Share Issuance Under Settlement Plan

On August 22, 2025, Noah Holdings Limited announced a change in its issued shares, specifically the issuance of 39,970 new ordinary shares under its issuance mandate. This change is part of the company’s settlement plan, as outlined in their 2024 Annual Report, and reflects a minor increase of 0.012% in the total number of issued shares. This move is indicative of Noah Holdings’ ongoing efforts to manage its equity structure and fulfill commitments to stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Noah Holdings Announces Share Increase for July 2025

On August 7, 2025, Noah Holdings Limited reported a slight increase in its issued shares for the month of July 2025, with an additional 45,162 ordinary shares issued, bringing the total to 337,585,988 shares. This adjustment reflects the company’s ongoing management of its share capital and aligns with its strategic initiatives, including the 2022 Share Incentive Plan and RSU Plan, which are designed to incentivize stakeholders and manage equity distribution effectively.

Noah Holdings Announces Share Issuance Amidst Strategic Adjustments

On July 2, 2025, Noah Holdings Limited announced changes in its issued shares, with 45,162 new ordinary shares issued under the issuance mandate as part of a settlement plan. This move is part of the company’s broader strategy to manage its equity structure and fulfill commitments to clients, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder value.