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Noah Holdings (NOAH)
NYSE:NOAH
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Noah Holdings
(NYSE:NOAH)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(13.73% Upside)
Positive Factors
Operating Profit
Improving operating profit with a recovery of 70% quarter-over-quarter and 56% year-over-year, supported by overseas insurance sales and cost control.
Overseas Revenue
Overseas revenue increased by 35.3% quarter-over-quarter and 28.9% year-over-year, accounting for 54.7% of gross revenue.
Shareholder Returns
Good shareholder return, including a 50% dividend payout and a US$50 million repurchase plan, supports the share price against an uncertain macro environment.
Negative Factors
Client Franchise
Client franchise might face some short-term impact from domestic restructuring, with core client numbers down 0.8% quarter-over-quarter and assets under administration down 2%.
Noah Holdings (NOAH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$780.35M
Dividend Yield9.81%
Average Volume (3M)87.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)1.16
Revenue Growth-18.39%
EPS Growth-45.23%
CountryUS
Employees1,990
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength72
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.33
Shares Outstanding67,517,200
10 Day Avg. Volume108,076
30 Day Avg. Volume87,592
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-0.14
Enterprise Value/Revenue-0.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-0.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.00Price Target Upside17.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Noah Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNoah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with the focus on investment and asset allocation services for high net worth individuals and enterprises in Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Asset Management, and Other Businesses. It offers investment products, including domestic and overseas publicly-raised and public securities investment funds, privately-raised investment funds, and private equity products; customized value-added financial services, such as investor education and trust services, as well as insurance brokerage services; and insurance products. The company also provides onshore and offshore private equity, real estate, public securities, multi-strategy, and other investment products, as well as lending services. Noah Holdings Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
How the Company Makes MoneyNoah Holdings generates revenue primarily through fees associated with its wealth management services, including advisory fees, management fees, and performance-based fees from its investment products. The key revenue streams include commissions from the sale of investment products, fees for asset management services, and advisory fees from clients seeking tailored investment solutions. Additionally, strategic partnerships with financial institutions and asset managers enhance its product offerings, contributing to its earnings. The firm also benefits from a growing affluent client base in China, which drives demand for its services.
Noah Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 28, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 30.58%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted significant growth in overseas investment products and effective cost management, leading to increased non-GAAP net income and operating profit. However, challenges remain with a decline in total and domestic net revenues and competitive pressures in the Hong Kong insurance market. The overall sentiment is balanced with notable achievements in overseas markets offset by domestic challenges.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Growth in Overseas Private Investment Products
Transaction value for overseas private investment products increased 27.7%, with revenue contribution growing 20.3%.
Increase in Non-GAAP Net Income
Non-GAAP net income in the first quarter was RMB 169 million, up 4.7% from the same period last year and 27.4% sequentially.
Successful Cost Management
Operating costs and expenses dropped by 18.8% from last year, contributing to a 53.1% year-over-year and 35.2% sequential increase in operating profit to RMB 186 million.
Significant Growth in Overseas AUM
Overseas AUM grew by 14.2% year-over-year to USD 5.9 billion, making up 29% of total AUM, up from 24% during the same period last year.
Expansion of Overseas Client Base
The number of registered overseas clients increased by 15.8% to over 18,200, with active overseas clients up 23.3% compared to the same period last year.
Negative Updates
Decline in Total Net Revenue
Total net revenue in Q1 fell 5.4% from the same period last year.
Decrease in Domestic Net Revenues
Net revenues from Mainland China were RMB 310 million, down 9.4% year-over-year.
Challenges in the Hong Kong Insurance Market
Net revenues from overseas insurance were RMB 30 million, down 17.8% due to strong competition in Hong Kong.
Significant Decline in Domestic Insurance Revenue
Net revenues from domestic insurance in Q1 were RMB 6.4 million, down 55.6%.
Company Guidance
In the Noah First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided several financial metrics and guidance for the upcoming periods. Non-GAAP net income for Q1 was RMB 169 million, representing a 4.7% increase from the same period last year and a 27.4% sequential increase, largely due to an 18.8% reduction in operating costs and expenses. Transaction value for renminbi-denominated private secondary products grew 2.6 times from last year, with revenue contribution increasing by 9.4%. Meanwhile, overseas private investment products saw a 27.7% increase in transaction value, with revenue growing by 20.3%. However, total net revenue fell by 5.4% year-over-year, mainly due to a 22.8% decline in revenue from overseas insurance products. The company reported that overseas net revenues were RMB 304 million, making up 49.5% of total revenue, with overseas AUM increasing by 14.2% to USD 5.9 billion. Noah plans to continue expanding its overseas presence, including growing the team of relationship managers and insurance agents, especially in regions like Singapore, the U.S., Japan, and Canada. The company also highlighted its strategic initiatives, including expanding into new markets, investing in AI technologies, and focusing on product diversification to better compete in a volatile market landscape.Noah Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Noah Holdings shows a mixed financial performance with strong profitability and a solid balance sheet, countered by declining revenue and inconsistent cash flow generation. The company's ability to manage costs effectively is a key strength, but the challenges in sustaining revenue growth and maintaining cash flow levels could affect future financial stability and expansion.Income Statement
Noah Holdings has experienced fluctuations in revenue over the years, with a notable decline in the most recent year. While the company maintains strong gross and net profit margins, the recent revenue decline and inconsistent revenue growth over the past few years present a challenge for future profitability. High margins indicate efficient cost management, but growth sustainability remains a concern.60
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company exhibits a robust balance sheet with a strong equity base and low debt levels, leading to a favorable debt-to-equity ratio. The high equity ratio indicates financial stability, and the substantial cash position enhances liquidity. Despite these strengths, the declining trend in total assets and equity over the last two years poses potential risks to future growth.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Noah Holdings demonstrates strong cash flow generation, particularly in operating cash flows, although there is a notable decrease in free cash flow in the latest year. The company has managed to maintain a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio. However, the decline in free cash flow growth and increased financing outflows could impact future cash reserves.65
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.60B | 3.29B | 3.10B | 4.29B | 3.31B |
| Gross Profit | 1.25B | 1.84B | 1.54B | 2.12B | 1.80B |
| EBITDA | 790.57M | 1.26B | 1.24B | 1.35B | 1.36B |
| Net Income | 475.44M | 1.01B | 976.57M | 1.00B | -843.78M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 11.78B | 12.69B | 11.80B | 10.89B | 9.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.10B | 5.57B | 4.72B | 3.50B | 5.12B |
| Total Debt | 120.61M | 138.36M | 167.53M | 130.96M | 272.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.77B | 2.26B | 2.30B | 2.75B | 2.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.95B | 10.31B | 9.41B | 8.14B | 7.28B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 305.16M | 1.16B | 570.19M | -749.38M | 744.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 387.34M | 1.32B | 632.90M | 1.52B | 796.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -840.82M | -247.14M | 74.29M | -2.57B | 352.58M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.13B | -199.84M | 233.76M | -513.12M | -371.42M |
Noah Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
11.87
Price Trends
11.74
Positive
10.21
Positive
10.30
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Positive
49.74
Neutral
58.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOAH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.03, above the 50-day MA of 11.74, and above the 200-day MA of 10.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NOAH.
Noah Holdings Risk Analysis
Noah Holdings disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Noah Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Noah Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
NOAH
Noah Holdings
11.87
4.55
62.16%
VINP
Vinci Partners Investments
9.78
-0.66
-6.32%
TRIN
Trinity Capital
15.77
3.55
29.05%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.