Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $790.69M
• Dividend Yield: 12.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 118.45K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.42
• Revenue Growth: 13.19%
• EPS Growth: -18.24%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 49,387,066
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 98,809
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 118,450
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.38
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 11.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 14.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.59
• 1Y Price Target: $17.13
• Price Target Upside: 7.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: ―

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. demonstrates strong financial growth and profitability, supported by a robust balance sheet. The technical indicators suggest potential for price improvement, while the valuation is attractive, particularly for dividend-focused investors. The positive earnings call further underscores the company's solid performance and strategic positioning, mitigating some liquidity concerns due to negative cash flow.

Positive Factors

Dividend Coverage

Strong dividend coverage persists, with core ratio totaling 128% in 3Q24 and total dividend coverage ratio at 105%, indicating a healthy cushion.

Insider Buying

An executive buying shares of their stock is viewed positively as it signifies confidence in the business.

Liquidity Improvement

Improvement in liquidity is expected to persist, which is seen as a positive for NCDL’s valuation over time.

Negative Factors

Valuation Discount

The biggest driver of the current valuation discount has been the lack of liquidity in shares since the IPO.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (the “Company”) is business development company and was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019 prior to the commencement of operations. The Company is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified management investment company that has elected to be regulated as a business development company (“BDC”) under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “1940 Act”). The Company's investment objective is to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns primarily through current income by investing primarily in senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle market companies, which the Company defines as companies with approximately $10.0 million to $100.0 million of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”). The Company will focus on privately originated debt to performing U.S. middle market companies, with a portfolio expected to comprise primarily of first-lien senior secured debt and unitranche loans (other than last-out positions in unitranche loans) (collectively “Senior Loans”). The Company will also opportunistically invest in junior capital opportunities (second-lien loans, subordinated debt, last-out positions in unitranche loans and equity-related securities) (collectively “Junior Capital Investments”).

How the Company Makes Money

NCDL generates revenue primarily through interest income from its lending activities. By providing loans to middle-market companies, the company earns interest over the term of the loan, which forms the core of its revenue model. Additionally, NCDL may earn fees associated with the origination, structuring, and management of these loan facilities. The company's partnerships with institutional investors and its integration within the broader Nuveen investment network enhance its capacity to source and manage lending deals, thereby contributing to its earnings.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. exhibits strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and high profit margins. The balance sheet is robust, highlighted by asset growth and improved debt-to-equity ratios. However, negative cash flow in 2024 poses potential liquidity concerns that could impact future operations.

Income Statement

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. has demonstrated strong revenue growth over recent years, increasing from $13.7 million in 2020 to $224 million in 2024. The gross profit and EBIT margins are notably high, reflecting strong operational efficiency. However, the absence of EBITDA data in the latest period limits a complete profitability analysis.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is solid, with total assets growing significantly from $353 million in 2020 to $2.14 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved substantially, with no debt reported in the latest period, indicating financial stability. High stockholders' equity provides a strong equity ratio, though the rapid increase in liabilities in recent years poses a potential risk.

Cash Flow

Cash flow from operations has shown fluctuations, with a significant negative operating cash flow in 2024. Free cash flow has also deteriorated, moving from positive in prior years to negative in the most recent period. This indicates potential liquidity challenges, despite historically positive cash flow metrics.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	158.82M	186.00M	153.80M	82.19M	37.11M	13.71M
Gross Profit	129.70M	111.42M	141.85M	73.80M	32.60M	11.79M
EBITDA	120.84M	116.48M	137.14M	42.98M	37.09M	6.63M
Net Income	109.52M	116.32M	75.94M	17.29M	27.27M	2.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.07B	2.14B	1.73B	1.25B	820.92M	353.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	44.01M	43.25M	67.44M	39.32M	35.19M	12.61M
Total Debt	0.00	1.11B	943.94M	699.77M	2.65M	188.28M
Total Liabilities	1.19B	1.17B	982.98M	287.00K	193.00K	195.82M
Stockholders Equity	887.74M	970.32M	747.88M	1.25B	820.92M	157.64M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	16.92M	-297.20M	73.05M	25.14M	41.32M	7.52M
Operating Cash Flow	16.92M	-297.20M	73.05M	25.14M	41.32M	7.52M
Investing Cash Flow	76.47M	0.00	-442.57M	-452.99M	-429.62M	-159.25M
Financing Cash Flow	-125.08M	273.06M	397.65M	431.93M	411.70M	161.33M

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 15.96
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCDL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 15.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.01, below the 50-day MA of 16.36, and above the 200-day MA of 15.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NCDL.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRIN	80 Outperform	$1.14B	7.25	17.31%	12.57%	31.43%	30.85%
NCDL	75 Outperform	$790.69M	8.76	10.37%	12.53%	13.19%	-18.24%
SLRC	71 Outperform	$910.52M	10.25	8.95%	9.82%	5.87%	-12.64%
CGBD	67 Neutral	$1.01B	11.80	6.60%	12.82%	-17.05%	-40.15%
BCSF	66 Neutral	$1.02B	9.41	9.42%	11.49%	-3.29%	-16.86%
PFLT	63 Neutral	$1.02B	12.17	7.37%	11.99%	55.25%	-47.71%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.29B	4.66	-20.95%	6.01%	10.84%	8.15%

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Corporate Events

Nuveen Churchill Reports Strong 2024 Financial Results

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported its financial results for the full year and fourth quarter ending December 31, 2024, on February 27, 2025. The company achieved a net investment income of $0.56 per share for the fourth quarter and declared a first-quarter regular distribution of $0.45 per share. The company experienced a strong year with over $950 million in new investments, reflecting a 40% increase year-over-year. NCDL’s portfolio saw an increase in fair value to $2.08 billion across 210 companies, and the company remains well-positioned with ample liquidity and no near-term debt maturities. The financial results indicate a robust performance with a return on equity of over 12% for the year, supported by high-quality new originations and strategic balance sheet optimization.

Nuveen Churchill Board Member Michael Perry Resigns

On February 10, 2025, Michael Perry resigned from the Board of Directors of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp., effective immediately, without any expressed disagreement with the company’s practices. Following his resignation, the Board reduced its size from seven to six directors, indicating a streamlined governance approach.