Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $644.01M
• Dividend Yield: 14.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 273.70K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: -8.32%
• EPS Growth: -33.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 49,387,066
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 235,025
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 273,700
• PEG Ratio: -0.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.32
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.73
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.57
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.25
• 1Y Price Target: $15.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.03% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.62
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $185.40M

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.50 ▲(11.20% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins and improved reported leverage) and attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and, from the earnings call, modest NAV/yield pressure despite broadly healthy credit trends and shareholder-friendly actions.

Positive Factors

High profitability and expanding revenue

Sustainably high margins and recent double-digit revenue growth indicate the core direct-lending model is generating durable distributable income. Strong earnings conversion supports ongoing dividend capacity and buybacks, helping shareholder returns even as deal flow normalizes over the next several quarters.

Conservative portfolio mix and low credit stress

A predominance of higher-quality, senior secured loans and very low non-accruals point to resilient credit performance. This conservative underwriting and limited realized losses support stable income generation and lower default risk over a mid-term horizon of 2–6 months as portfolio seasoning continues.

Improved funding costs and proactive capital actions

Materially lower borrowing spreads and active liability management increase net interest margin and durable profitability. Combined with a $50M buyback authorization, these capital actions enhance long-term cash returns and demonstrate management's ability to access markets and optimize financing structure.

Negative Factors

Yield compression and spread pressure

Narrower new‑deal spreads and a decline in portfolio yields reduce forward earnings potential from reinvestment and new originations. Persistently compressed spreads can structurally lower net interest margins and constrain distributable income over the coming quarters absent sustained spread recovery.

NAV declines and mark-to-market volatility

Fair-value swings and recurring mark-to-market losses introduce volatility to GAAP earnings and reported NAV. For a closed-end direct lender, such variability can pressure distributions or raise capital needs during stress, and may persist as valuations reset amid competitive pricing or sector-specific underperformance.

Inconsistent cash flow and declining free cash flow

A meaningful decline in free cash flow and irregular coverage metrics reduce confidence in cash-conversion quality. For income-focused investors, variability in FCF can pressure sustainable distributions and limit the company's flexibility to absorb shocks or fund growth without increasing leverage or reducing payouts.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (the “Company”) is business development company and was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019 prior to the commencement of operations. The Company is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified management investment company that has elected to be regulated as a business development company (“BDC”) under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “1940 Act”). The Company's investment objective is to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns primarily through current income by investing primarily in senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle market companies, which the Company defines as companies with approximately $10.0 million to $100.0 million of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”). The Company will focus on privately originated debt to performing U.S. middle market companies, with a portfolio expected to comprise primarily of first-lien senior secured debt and unitranche loans (other than last-out positions in unitranche loans) (collectively “Senior Loans”). The Company will also opportunistically invest in junior capital opportunities (second-lien loans, subordinated debt, last-out positions in unitranche loans and equity-related securities) (collectively “Junior Capital Investments”).

How the Company Makes Money

NCDL generates revenue primarily through interest income from the loans it extends to middle-market companies, which is its main revenue stream. The company typically structures these loans as secured debt, often with higher yields than traditional fixed-income investments, taking advantage of the risk-return profile of the middle-market lending space. Additionally, NCDL may earn fees from loan origination, structuring, and management services, further enhancing its revenue. The company's partnerships with financial institutions and investment firms can also play a significant role in its earnings by providing access to larger capital pools and diversified investment opportunities. The performance of its portfolio is influenced by economic conditions, borrower performance, and interest rate fluctuations, all of which are critical factors in determining NCDL's profitability.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and revenue scaling (2025 revenue +12.1% YoY; very high 2025 margins), plus an improved leverage profile in the statements (debt reported at 0 in 2025 vs. 2024). Offsetting this are lumpy year-to-year margins, a decline in free cash flow in 2025 (-17.6%), and incomplete/irregular 2025 cash-conversion ratio data that reduces confidence in earnings quality.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled meaningfully over time, with strong growth in 2025 (+12.1% vs. 2024) following steady expansion in prior years. Profitability remains a clear strength with very high margins in 2025 (net margin ~46% and EBIT margin ~71%). The main weakness is volatility in earnings quality year-to-year: net margin was higher in 2024 (~63%) than 2025, and the business has shown large step-ups in revenue across the earlier years, suggesting results can be lumpy rather than consistently compounding.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a notable improvement in leverage: total debt is reported at 0 in 2025 versus meaningful debt in 2024 (~$1.11B), taking debt-to-equity from ~1.14x to 0.0x. Equity remains sizable (~$875M) against a ~$2.05B asset base, and return on equity has been solid and fairly stable around the low-teens in recent years (~10–12%). The key watch-out is the sharp year-over-year change in debt levels, which can reflect structural or reporting shifts and makes leverage trend assessment less stable.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive with operating cash flow and free cash flow of ~$88.7M in 2025, but free cash flow declined (-17.6% in 2025) versus growth in 2024. Cash flow coverage indicators are mixed based on the provided data: 2024 shows operating cash flow comfortably covering net income (coverage ~2.23x), while 2025 coverage and free-cash-flow-to-net-income are listed as 0.0, limiting confidence in cash conversion analysis for the most recent year. Overall, cash flow is supportive but less consistent than profitability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	201.84M	186.00M	144.01M	46.81M	39.25M
Gross Profit	171.31M	111.42M	86.03M	23.39M	29.43M
EBITDA	143.66M	116.48M	76.77M	17.31M	27.27M
Net Income	65.61M	116.32M	75.94M	17.29M	27.27M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.05B	2.14B	1.73B	1.25B	820.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.55M	43.25M	67.39M	39.27M	35.19M
Total Debt	1.12B	1.11B	943.94M	699.77M	406.37M
Total Liabilities	1.18B	1.17B	982.98M	729.00M	446.87M
Stockholders Equity	875.18M	970.32M	747.88M	524.96M	374.05M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	88.69M	136.42M	73.05M	25.14M	41.32M
Operating Cash Flow	88.69M	136.42M	73.05M	25.14M	41.32M
Investing Cash Flow	105.46M	-433.62M	-442.57M	-452.99M	-429.62M
Financing Cash Flow	-174.98M	273.06M	397.65M	431.93M	411.70M

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.04
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCDL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.23, below the 50-day MA of 13.47, and below the 200-day MA of 14.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCDL.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NCDL	69 Neutral	$644.01M	10.35	8.75%	14.71%	-8.32%	-33.94%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FDUS	66 Neutral	$652.06M	9.74	11.68%	11.47%	-12.17%	-14.93%
GAIN	61 Neutral	$559.50M	2.10	24.70%	11.02%	-45.46%	134.73%
SLRC	58 Neutral	$767.04M	9.11	9.32%	10.80%	-6.30%	-6.92%
CCAP	58 Neutral	$471.50M	15.08	4.81%	13.20%	-20.18%	-61.90%
TCPC	53 Neutral	$296.00M	-5.23	-12.44%	21.13%	-91.81%	78.46%

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Corporate Events

Nuveen Churchill Posts 2025 Results, Launches Buyback Program

On February 26, 2026, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported its full-year and fourth-quarter 2025 results, highlighting fourth-quarter net investment income of $0.44 per share and a slight decline in net asset value to $17.72, as unrealized losses offset realized gains. The board declared a first-quarter 2026 distribution of $0.40 per share, following a $0.45 per-share payout in January that produced a 10.1% annualized yield on fourth-quarter NAV, and the company emphasized portfolio resilience with only 0.5% of investments at fair value on non-accrual status.

For 2025, NCDL delivered nearly 11% return on equity and paid $1.90 per share in distributions, even as investment income fell to $207.9 million amid lower yields and a slightly smaller portfolio, and net expenses rose after higher management fees and the expiry of incentive fee waivers. The board also approved a $50 million share repurchase program in February 2026 to buy stock below NAV, signaling confidence in portfolio quality and capital allocation discipline, while maintaining ample liquidity with $62.5 million in cash, $259 million of revolver capacity, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.27 times at year-end 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCDL) stock is a Hold with a $14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. stock, see the NCDL Stock Forecast page.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Prices Major Debt Refinancing

On January 29, 2026, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. priced a refinancing of its term debt securitization through its wholly owned subsidiary Churchill NCDLC CLO-II, LLC, with closing expected on or around February 20, 2026. The refinanced 2026 Debt package is expected to total roughly $299.7 million, comprising $125.5 million of AAA Class A-R Notes and $50 million of AAA Class A-L-R Loans, both priced at three-month Term SOFR plus 1.38%, $37.5 million of AA Class B-R Notes at three-month Term SOFR plus 1.70%, and $86.7 million of non-interest-bearing Subordinated Notes, all backed by a diversified pool of senior secured and second lien loans. The company will retain all subordinated notes, continue as collateral manager without charging a management fee, and maintain the ability to reinvest principal collections in new collateral through January 20, 2031, preserving leverage and supporting ongoing portfolio growth, with the 2026 Debt expected to mature on January 20, 2039, subject to customary closing conditions and ratings requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCDL) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. stock, see the NCDL Stock Forecast page.