Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $665.74M
• Dividend Yield: 14.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 328.79K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.47
• Revenue Growth: -8.32%
• EPS Growth: -33.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 49,387,066
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 323,743
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 328,792
• PEG Ratio: -1.48
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.31
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.62
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.67
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.99
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.48
• 1Y Price Target: $18.00
• Price Target Upside: 34.03% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.64
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $191.50M

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.50 ▲(7.97% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and improved recent cash generation, tempered by leverage and slowing revenue. Valuation is supportive (low P/E and high dividend yield), but technicals are weak with the stock trading below major moving averages. The latest earnings call was mixed, with lower NII and slower originations offset by solid diversification and low nonaccrual levels.

Positive Factors

High Profitability

Sustained high TTM net and operating margins give NCDL durable earnings power versus many credit managers. Strong margins provide a structural buffer against credit losses, support distributions, and allow reinvestment in originations even if top-line growth softens.

Improved Cash Generation

Material improvement in free cash flow and operating cash flow strengthens the firm's ability to fund dividends, pay down short-term obligations, and support new originations. Better cash conversion enhances financial flexibility across credit cycles.

Diversified, Predominantly Senior Portfolio

A broad 213-company portfolio with low nonaccruals and a focus on senior secured loans reduces idiosyncratic credit risk and supports stable recoveries. Senior-first exposure structurally improves loss protection and reinforces durable risk-adjusted returns long term.

Negative Factors

High Financial Leverage

Material leverage and a shrinking equity base increase sensitivity to rising funding costs or credit losses. For a lending vehicle, higher debt amplifies downside risk and limits capacity to absorb mark-to-market losses without pressuring NAV or distributions.

Top-line Weakness

Declining TTM revenue signals weaker originations or yield pressure that can persist in tougher credit or funding environments. Sustained top-line contraction reduces future NII runway, constraining growth of assets and the sustainability of high payouts over months.

Slowing Originations and Rising Credit Marks

Quarterly drops in NII and originations, a small NAV decline, and newly added nonaccruals indicate emerging pressure on asset quality and earnings capacity. If originations remain muted, reinvestment at attractive yields may be limited, dampening medium-term return prospects.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (the “Company”) is business development company and was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019 prior to the commencement of operations. The Company is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified management investment company that has elected to be regulated as a business development company (“BDC”) under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “1940 Act”). The Company's investment objective is to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns primarily through current income by investing primarily in senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle market companies, which the Company defines as companies with approximately $10.0 million to $100.0 million of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”). The Company will focus on privately originated debt to performing U.S. middle market companies, with a portfolio expected to comprise primarily of first-lien senior secured debt and unitranche loans (other than last-out positions in unitranche loans) (collectively “Senior Loans”). The Company will also opportunistically invest in junior capital opportunities (second-lien loans, subordinated debt, last-out positions in unitranche loans and equity-related securities) (collectively “Junior Capital Investments”).

How the Company Makes Money

NCDL generates revenue primarily through interest income from the loans it extends to middle-market companies, which is its main revenue stream. The company typically structures these loans as secured debt, often with higher yields than traditional fixed-income investments, taking advantage of the risk-return profile of the middle-market lending space. Additionally, NCDL may earn fees from loan origination, structuring, and management services, further enhancing its revenue. The company's partnerships with financial institutions and investment firms can also play a significant role in its earnings by providing access to larger capital pools and diversified investment opportunities. The performance of its portfolio is influenced by economic conditions, borrower performance, and interest rate fluctuations, all of which are critical factors in determining NCDL's profitability.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. shows strong revenue growth and profitability with a robust balance sheet. However, recent negative cash flow trends highlight potential liquidity challenges, requiring careful management of cash resources.

Income Statement

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. has demonstrated strong revenue growth over recent years, increasing from $13.7 million in 2020 to $224 million in 2024. The gross profit and EBIT margins are notably high, reflecting strong operational efficiency. However, the absence of EBITDA data in the latest period limits a complete profitability analysis.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is solid, with total assets growing significantly from $353 million in 2020 to $2.14 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved substantially, with no debt reported in the latest period, indicating financial stability. High stockholders' equity provides a strong equity ratio, though the rapid increase in liabilities in recent years poses a potential risk.

Cash Flow

Cash flow from operations has shown fluctuations, with a significant negative operating cash flow in 2024. Free cash flow has also deteriorated, moving from positive in prior years to negative in the most recent period. This indicates potential liquidity challenges, despite historically positive cash flow metrics.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	180.05M	186.00M	144.01M	46.81M	39.25M	8.71M
Gross Profit	102.45M	111.42M	86.03M	23.39M	29.43M	4.22M
EBITDA	112.44M	116.48M	76.77M	17.31M	27.27M	2.15M
Net Income	91.54M	116.32M	75.94M	17.29M	27.27M	2.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.04B	2.14B	1.73B	1.25B	820.92M	353.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	46.33M	43.25M	67.39M	39.27M	35.19M	12.61M
Total Debt	1.11B	1.11B	943.94M	699.77M	406.37M	188.28M
Total Liabilities	1.16B	1.17B	982.98M	729.00M	446.87M	195.82M
Stockholders Equity	881.49M	970.32M	747.88M	524.96M	374.05M	157.64M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	107.70M	136.42M	73.05M	25.14M	41.32M	7.52M
Operating Cash Flow	107.70M	136.42M	73.05M	25.14M	41.32M	7.52M
Investing Cash Flow	69.88M	-433.62M	-442.57M	-452.99M	-429.62M	-159.25M
Financing Cash Flow	-200.60M	273.06M	397.65M	431.93M	411.70M	161.33M

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.43
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCDL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.79, below the 50-day MA of 14.20, and below the 200-day MA of 14.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCDL.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FDUS	78 Outperform	$718.35M	8.35	11.92%	11.47%	-12.17%	-14.93%
SLRC	70 Outperform	$833.59M	9.18	9.07%	10.80%	-6.30%	-6.92%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
NCDL	67 Neutral	$665.74M	8.74	8.46%	14.71%	-8.32%	-33.94%
GAIN	67 Neutral	$551.88M	5.57	18.68%	11.02%	-45.46%	134.73%
CCAP	63 Neutral	$534.54M	14.82	4.92%	13.20%	-20.18%	-61.90%
TCPC	50 Neutral	$477.66M	-52.39	-1.15%	21.13%	-91.81%	78.46%

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Corporate Events

Nuveen Churchill Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a net investment income of $0.43 per share and a net asset value per share of $17.85. The company declared a fourth quarter distribution of $0.45 per share, maintaining a strong portfolio with a fair value of $2.0 billion across 213 companies. Despite a slight decrease in investment income compared to the previous year, NCDL remains well-positioned with a diversified portfolio and strong capital structure, focusing on high-quality assets and risk-adjusted returns for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCDL) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. stock, see the NCDL Stock Forecast page.