Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL)
NYSE:NCDL
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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
(NYSE:NCDL)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
â–²(7.89% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins and improved reported leverage) and attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and, from the earnings call, modest NAV/yield pressure despite broadly healthy credit trends and shareholder-friendly actions.
Positive Factors
High profitability and expanding revenue
Sustainably high margins and recent double-digit revenue growth indicate the core direct-lending model is generating durable distributable income. Strong earnings conversion supports ongoing dividend capacity and buybacks, helping shareholder returns even as deal flow normalizes over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Yield compression and spread pressure
Narrower new‑deal spreads and a decline in portfolio yields reduce forward earnings potential from reinvestment and new originations. Persistently compressed spreads can structurally lower net interest margins and constrain distributable income over the coming quarters absent sustained spread recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability and expanding revenue
Sustainably high margins and recent double-digit revenue growth indicate the core direct-lending model is generating durable distributable income. Strong earnings conversion supports ongoing dividend capacity and buybacks, helping shareholder returns even as deal flow normalizes over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$665.24M
Dividend Yield14.71%
Average Volume (3M)250.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.3
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth-8.32%
EPS Growth-33.94%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.32
Shares Outstanding49,387,066
10 Day Avg. Volume207,837
30 Day Avg. Volume250,381
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.26
Price to Book (P/B)0.77
Price to Sales (P/S)3.32
P/FCF Ratio7.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.66
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.64
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.34
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.00Price Target Upside11.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$185.40M
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (the “Company”) is business development company and was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18...
How the Company Makes Money
NCDL generates revenue primarily through interest income from the loans it extends to middle-market companies, which is its main revenue stream. The company typically structures these loans as secured debt, often with higher yields than traditiona...
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and portfolio-quality story: strong origination and funding momentum, conservative portfolio composition (90% first-lien), low non-accruals, a solid ROE (~11% on net investment income) and proactive capital actions (CLO refinancing, $50M buyback, stable dividend policy). Offsetting items were modest declines in NAV and yields, a QoQ drop in GAAP net income driven by mark-to-market losses, slightly higher watchlist/non-accruals and continued spread compression that pressures returns. Overall, management emphasized resilience, selective underwriting and attractive redeployment opportunities into the core middle market.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Operating Income
Net investment income of $0.44 per share in Q4 2025, up from $0.43 in Q3 (+2.3%), demonstrating stable operating earnings despite market noise.
Negative Updates
Small Decline in Net Asset Value
NAV decreased to $17.72 per share at year-end from $17.85 at September 30, 2025 (down ~0.7%), driven by fair value declines in certain underperforming companies.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Operating Income
Net investment income of $0.44 per share in Q4 2025, up from $0.43 in Q3 (+2.3%), demonstrating stable operating earnings despite market noise.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that it will operate toward the upper end of its 1.0x–1.25x target leverage (Q4 gross debt/equity 1.27x, net 1.2x), maintain a base quarterly dividend of $0.36 with a supplemental program (Q1‑2026 total $0.40/share, annualized ≈9% on 12/31 NAV), and prioritize redeploying capital (Q4 fundings $80.4M, gross originations $59.4M, repayments/sales $84.3M) into high‑quality senior loans (≈90% of portfolio) as deal flow and M&A activity improve; they noted spreads have stabilized around 450–475 bps (first‑lien new deal spread ≈470 bps) and portfolio economics include a weighted average yield on debt of 9.5% (down from 9.9%), weighted average internal risk rating 4.2, watchlist ≈8% of FV, portfolio net leverage 5x, interest coverage 2.3x, only four non‑accruals (0.5% FV / 1.2% cost), NAV $17.72 (vs. $17.85), portfolio FV $2.0B across 227 companies (top 10 ≈13.1%, avg position 0.4%, largest 1.6%), ROE ≈11% on net investment income, $1.90/share paid in 2025 (≈10.7% yield on year‑end NAV), pro‑forma cost of debt improved to SOFR+186 (down 17 bps after CLO‑II refinance from SOFR+250 to SOFR+144), and the Board authorized a $50M share repurchase program while having issued $300M of unsecured notes in early 2025.Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 201.84M | 186.00M | 144.01M | 46.81M | 39.25M |
| Gross Profit | 171.31M | 111.42M | 86.03M | 23.39M | 29.43M |
| EBITDA | 143.66M | 116.48M | 76.77M | 17.31M | 27.27M |
| Net Income | 65.61M | 116.32M | 75.94M | 17.29M | 27.27M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.05B | 2.14B | 1.73B | 1.25B | 820.92M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.55M | 43.25M | 67.39M | 39.27M | 35.19M |
| Total Debt | 1.12B | 1.11B | 943.94M | 699.77M | 406.37M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.18B | 1.17B | 982.98M | 729.00M | 446.87M |
| Stockholders Equity | 875.18M | 970.32M | 747.88M | 524.96M | 374.05M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 88.69M | 136.42M | 73.05M | 25.14M | 41.32M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 88.69M | 136.42M | 73.05M | 25.14M | 41.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 105.46M | -433.62M | -442.57M | -452.99M | -429.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -174.98M | 273.06M | 397.65M | 431.93M | 411.70M |
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Technical Analysis
Positive
13.44
Price Trends
13.01
Positive
13.16
Positive
13.63
Negative
Market Momentum
0.11
Negative
62.30
Neutral
93.71
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCDL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.90, above the 50-day MA of 13.01, and below the 200-day MA of 13.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.71 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NCDL.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Risk Analysis
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. disclosed 3 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $665.24M | 10.35 | 8.75% | 14.71% | -8.32% | -33.94% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $679.76M | 9.74 | 11.68% | 11.47% | -12.17% | -14.93% | |
64 Neutral | $584.19M | 2.10 | 24.70% | 11.02% | -45.46% | 134.73% | |
58 Neutral | $818.87M | 8.41 | 9.32% | 10.80% | -6.30% | -6.92% | |
58 Neutral | $460.06M | 15.08 | 4.81% | 13.20% | -20.18% | -61.90% | |
53 Neutral | $323.83M | -5.23 | -12.44% | 21.13% | -91.81% | 78.46% |
* Financial Sector Average
NCDL
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
13.47
0.53
4.13%
FDUS
Fidus Investment
17.91
1.96
12.29%
GAIN
Gladstone Investment
14.67
2.74
22.94%
SLRC
SLR Investment Corp.
15.01
1.82
13.83%
TCPC
BlackRock TCP Capital
3.84
-1.69
-30.57%
CCAP
Crescent Capital BDC
12.46
-0.30
-2.37%
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Corporate Events
Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Nuveen Churchill Posts 2025 Results, Launches Buyback Program
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported its full-year and fourth-quarter 2025 results, highlighting fourth-quarter net investment income of $0.44 per share and a slight decline in net asset value to $17.72, as unrealiz...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Prices Major Debt Refinancing
Positive
Feb 3, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. priced a refinancing of its term debt securitization through its wholly owned subsidiary Churchill NCDLC CLO-II, LLC, with closing expected on or around February 20, 2026. The refinanced 2...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.