Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $658.82M
• Dividend Yield: 14.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 248.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.47
• Revenue Growth: -8.32%
• EPS Growth: -33.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 49,387,066
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 250,761
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 248,943
• PEG Ratio: -1.48
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.16
• 1Y Price Target: $17.00
• Price Target Upside: 30.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.64
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $185.20M

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.50 ▲(10.94% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and solid recent cash generation, tempered by meaningful leverage and weakening revenue. Technicals are notably weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation is supportive (low P/E and high yield). The latest earnings call and refinancing are broadly constructive but mixed, reflecting stable credit quality with some near-term pressure in income and originations.

Positive Factors

High Profitability

Sustained high TTM net and operating margins give NCDL durable earnings power versus many credit managers. Strong margins provide a structural buffer against credit losses, support distributions, and allow reinvestment in originations even if top-line growth softens.

Improved Cash Generation

Material improvement in free cash flow and operating cash flow strengthens the firm's ability to fund dividends, pay down short-term obligations, and support new originations. Better cash conversion enhances financial flexibility across credit cycles.

Diversified, Predominantly Senior Portfolio

A broad 213-company portfolio with low nonaccruals and a focus on senior secured loans reduces idiosyncratic credit risk and supports stable recoveries. Senior-first exposure structurally improves loss protection and reinforces durable risk-adjusted returns long term.

Negative Factors

High Financial Leverage

Material leverage and a shrinking equity base increase sensitivity to rising funding costs or credit losses. For a lending vehicle, higher debt amplifies downside risk and limits capacity to absorb mark-to-market losses without pressuring NAV or distributions.

Top-line Weakness

Declining TTM revenue signals weaker originations or yield pressure that can persist in tougher credit or funding environments. Sustained top-line contraction reduces future NII runway, constraining growth of assets and the sustainability of high payouts over months.

Slowing Originations and Rising Credit Marks

Quarterly drops in NII and originations, a small NAV decline, and newly added nonaccruals indicate emerging pressure on asset quality and earnings capacity. If originations remain muted, reinvestment at attractive yields may be limited, dampening medium-term return prospects.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (the “Company”) is business development company and was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019 prior to the commencement of operations. The Company is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified management investment company that has elected to be regulated as a business development company (“BDC”) under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “1940 Act”). The Company's investment objective is to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns primarily through current income by investing primarily in senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle market companies, which the Company defines as companies with approximately $10.0 million to $100.0 million of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”). The Company will focus on privately originated debt to performing U.S. middle market companies, with a portfolio expected to comprise primarily of first-lien senior secured debt and unitranche loans (other than last-out positions in unitranche loans) (collectively “Senior Loans”). The Company will also opportunistically invest in junior capital opportunities (second-lien loans, subordinated debt, last-out positions in unitranche loans and equity-related securities) (collectively “Junior Capital Investments”).

How the Company Makes Money

NCDL generates revenue primarily through interest income from the loans it extends to middle-market companies, which is its main revenue stream. The company typically structures these loans as secured debt, often with higher yields than traditional fixed-income investments, taking advantage of the risk-return profile of the middle-market lending space. Additionally, NCDL may earn fees from loan origination, structuring, and management services, further enhancing its revenue. The company's partnerships with financial institutions and investment firms can also play a significant role in its earnings by providing access to larger capital pools and diversified investment opportunities. The performance of its portfolio is influenced by economic conditions, borrower performance, and interest rate fluctuations, all of which are critical factors in determining NCDL's profitability.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability (TTM net margin ~51%, operating margin ~41%) and improved recent free cash flow, but TTM revenue is down (~8.2%), leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.25x TTM), and cash-flow metrics have been volatile across periods.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong for the sector, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin at ~51% and solid operating profitability (~41% operating margin). However, the top line has softened recently (TTM revenue down ~8.2% versus the prior period), and margins have been somewhat volatile across years (e.g., operating margin ranging from ~52% in 2024 to ~41% in TTM). Overall: high earnings power, but near-term growth momentum is negative.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows meaningful leverage: debt is above equity in both 2024 and TTM (debt-to-equity ~1.14x in 2024 and ~1.25x in TTM), which can amplify returns but increases sensitivity to credit conditions and funding costs. Return on equity is healthy around ~10% in TTM (roughly in line with recent years), but equity has declined versus 2024 (from ~$970M to ~$881M), reducing balance-sheet cushion. Overall: acceptable strength for a lending-oriented model, but leverage and equity shrink are key watch items.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid in TTM (operating cash flow and free cash flow both ~$108M) and free cash flow has accelerated sharply versus the prior period (+~102% growth). That said, cash-flow results have been choppy year-to-year (2024 operating cash flow fell versus 2023 and the provided operating cash flow coverage figure in 2024 is negative), which points to variability in cash realization. Overall: good recent cash conversion, but with volatility that warrants monitoring.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	180.05M	186.00M	144.01M	46.81M	39.25M	8.71M
Gross Profit	102.45M	111.42M	86.03M	23.39M	29.43M	4.22M
EBITDA	112.44M	116.48M	76.77M	17.31M	27.27M	2.15M
Net Income	91.54M	116.32M	75.94M	17.29M	27.27M	2.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.04B	2.14B	1.73B	1.25B	820.92M	353.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	46.33M	43.25M	67.39M	39.27M	35.19M	12.61M
Total Debt	1.11B	1.11B	943.94M	699.77M	406.37M	188.28M
Total Liabilities	1.16B	1.17B	982.98M	729.00M	446.87M	195.82M
Stockholders Equity	881.49M	970.32M	747.88M	524.96M	374.05M	157.64M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	107.70M	136.42M	73.05M	25.14M	41.32M	7.52M
Operating Cash Flow	107.70M	136.42M	73.05M	25.14M	41.32M	7.52M
Investing Cash Flow	69.88M	-433.62M	-442.57M	-452.99M	-429.62M	-159.25M
Financing Cash Flow	-200.60M	273.06M	397.65M	431.93M	411.70M	161.33M

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.07
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCDL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.47, below the 50-day MA of 13.97, and below the 200-day MA of 14.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCDL.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FDUS	78 Outperform	$702.69M	8.21	11.92%	11.47%	-12.17%	-14.93%
SLRC	70 Outperform	$815.59M	9.06	9.07%	10.80%	-6.30%	-6.92%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
NCDL	66 Neutral	$658.82M	8.68	8.46%	14.71%	-8.32%	-33.94%
CCAP	63 Neutral	$528.62M	14.71	4.92%	13.20%	-20.18%	-61.90%
GAIN	60 Neutral	$549.10M	5.56	18.68%	11.02%	-45.46%	134.73%
TCPC	50 Neutral	$432.69M	-46.58	-1.15%	21.13%	-91.81%	78.46%

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Corporate Events

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Prices Major Debt Refinancing

On January 29, 2026, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. priced a refinancing of its term debt securitization through its wholly owned subsidiary Churchill NCDLC CLO-II, LLC, with closing expected on or around February 20, 2026. The refinanced 2026 Debt package is expected to total roughly $299.7 million, comprising $125.5 million of AAA Class A-R Notes and $50 million of AAA Class A-L-R Loans, both priced at three-month Term SOFR plus 1.38%, $37.5 million of AA Class B-R Notes at three-month Term SOFR plus 1.70%, and $86.7 million of non-interest-bearing Subordinated Notes, all backed by a diversified pool of senior secured and second lien loans. The company will retain all subordinated notes, continue as collateral manager without charging a management fee, and maintain the ability to reinvest principal collections in new collateral through January 20, 2031, preserving leverage and supporting ongoing portfolio growth, with the 2026 Debt expected to mature on January 20, 2039, subject to customary closing conditions and ratings requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCDL) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. stock, see the NCDL Stock Forecast page.

Nuveen Churchill Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a net investment income of $0.43 per share and a net asset value per share of $17.85. The company declared a fourth quarter distribution of $0.45 per share, maintaining a strong portfolio with a fair value of $2.0 billion across 213 companies. Despite a slight decrease in investment income compared to the previous year, NCDL remains well-positioned with a diversified portfolio and strong capital structure, focusing on high-quality assets and risk-adjusted returns for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCDL) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. stock, see the NCDL Stock Forecast page.