Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL)
NYSE:NCDL
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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
(NYSE:NCDL)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$15.00
â–²(4.02% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven mainly by solid operating profitability and strong cash generation, supported by a generally positive earnings call (portfolio quality, origination momentum, dividend/buyback and lower borrowing costs). Offsetting these are weakening TTM revenue/margins versus prior highs, balance-sheet leverage with a shrinking equity base, and a mixed technical picture with subdued momentum.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow both ~128.4M with FCF/net income = 1.0 and FCF growth recently positive. Durable cash conversion supports recurring distributions, share repurchases and reinvestment into loans, giving the company flexibility to fund strategy through cycles.
Negative Factors
High Leverage & Shrinking Equity
Material leverage with a declining equity base reduces the loss-absorbing cushion and amplifies NAV sensitivity to credit deterioration or mark-to-market moves. This structural capital constraint limits flexibility for additional borrowing or large portfolio write-down absorption in adverse scenarios.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow both ~128.4M with FCF/net income = 1.0 and FCF growth recently positive. Durable cash conversion supports recurring distributions, share repurchases and reinvestment into loans, giving the company flexibility to fund strategy through cycles.
Read all positive factors
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$641.04M
Dividend Yield14.71%
Average Volume (3M)205.22K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.1
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth-12.61%
EPS Growth-36.66%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.20
Shares Outstanding49,387,066
10 Day Avg. Volume233,578
30 Day Avg. Volume205,224
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.26
Price to Book (P/B)0.77
Price to Sales (P/S)3.32
P/FCF Ratio3.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.74
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda22.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.19Price Target Upside-1.61% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$186.19M
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (the “Company”) is business development company and was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18...
How the Company Makes Money
NCDL primarily makes money from the yield it earns on its debt investment portfolio. The main revenue stream is interest income from loans it originates or acquires (generally floating-rate or fixed-rate depending on the underlying loan terms), in...
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and portfolio-quality story: strong origination and funding momentum, conservative portfolio composition (90% first-lien), low non-accruals, a solid ROE (~11% on net investment income) and proactive capital actions (CLO refinancing, $50M buyback, stable dividend policy). Offsetting items were modest declines in NAV and yields, a QoQ drop in GAAP net income driven by mark-to-market losses, slightly higher watchlist/non-accruals and continued spread compression that pressures returns. Overall, management emphasized resilience, selective underwriting and attractive redeployment opportunities into the core middle market.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Operating Income
Net investment income of $0.44 per share in Q4 2025, up from $0.43 in Q3 (+2.3%), demonstrating stable operating earnings despite market noise.
Negative Updates
Small Decline in Net Asset Value
NAV decreased to $17.72 per share at year-end from $17.85 at September 30, 2025 (down ~0.7%), driven by fair value declines in certain underperforming companies.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Operating Income
Net investment income of $0.44 per share in Q4 2025, up from $0.43 in Q3 (+2.3%), demonstrating stable operating earnings despite market noise.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that it will operate toward the upper end of its 1.0x–1.25x target leverage (Q4 gross debt/equity 1.27x, net 1.2x), maintain a base quarterly dividend of $0.36 with a supplemental program (Q1‑2026 total $0.40/share, annualized ≈9% on 12/31 NAV), and prioritize redeploying capital (Q4 fundings $80.4M, gross originations $59.4M, repayments/sales $84.3M) into high‑quality senior loans (≈90% of portfolio) as deal flow and M&A activity improve; they noted spreads have stabilized around 450–475 bps (first‑lien new deal spread ≈470 bps) and portfolio economics include a weighted average yield on debt of 9.5% (down from 9.9%), weighted average internal risk rating 4.2, watchlist ≈8% of FV, portfolio net leverage 5x, interest coverage 2.3x, only four non‑accruals (0.5% FV / 1.2% cost), NAV $17.72 (vs. $17.85), portfolio FV $2.0B across 227 companies (top 10 ≈13.1%, avg position 0.4%, largest 1.6%), ROE ≈11% on net investment income, $1.90/share paid in 2025 (≈10.7% yield on year‑end NAV), pro‑forma cost of debt improved to SOFR+186 (down 17 bps after CLO‑II refinance from SOFR+250 to SOFR+144), and the Board authorized a $50M share repurchase program while having issued $300M of unsecured notes in early 2025.Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 157.85M | 201.84M | 186.00M | 144.01M | 46.81M | 39.25M |
| Gross Profit | 95.93M | 171.31M | 111.42M | 86.03M | 23.39M | 29.43M |
| EBITDA | 77.47M | 143.66M | 116.48M | 76.77M | 17.31M | 27.27M |
| Net Income | 59.28M | 65.61M | 116.32M | 75.94M | 17.29M | 27.27M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.05B | 2.05B | 2.14B | 1.73B | 1.25B | 820.92M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.27M | 8.55M | 43.25M | 67.39M | 39.27M | 35.19M |
| Total Debt | 1.14B | 1.12B | 1.11B | 943.94M | 699.77M | 406.37M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.18B | 1.18B | 1.17B | 982.98M | 729.00M | 446.87M |
| Stockholders Equity | 864.11M | 875.18M | 970.32M | 747.88M | 524.96M | 374.05M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 128.43M | 194.16M | 136.42M | 73.05M | 25.14M | 41.32M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 128.43M | 194.16M | 136.42M | 73.05M | 25.14M | 41.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 60.80M | 0.00 | -433.62M | -442.57M | -452.99M | -429.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -188.00M | -174.98M | 273.06M | 397.65M | 431.93M | 411.70M |
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Technical Analysis
Negative
14.42
Price Trends
13.49
Negative
13.29
Negative
13.46
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.25
Positive
36.62
Neutral
17.37
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCDL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.73, above the 50-day MA of 13.49, and above the 200-day MA of 13.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.37 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCDL.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Risk Analysis
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. disclosed 3 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $711.26M | 8.31 | 11.45% | 11.47% | -15.44% | -2.66% | |
69 Neutral | $641.04M | 18.08 | 6.76% | 14.71% | -12.61% | -36.66% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
59 Neutral | $654.67M | 2.98 | 34.04% | 11.02% | -54.43% | 163.70% | |
57 Neutral | $421.52M | -7.23 | 2.14% | 13.20% | -18.56% | -69.62% | |
56 Neutral | $715.76M | 11.40 | 9.04% | 10.80% | -3.59% | 2.19% | |
54 Neutral | $312.12M | -4.67 | -19.08% | 21.13% | -153.69% | -168.78% |
* Financial Sector Average
NCDL
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
12.88
-0.94
-6.79%
FDUS
Fidus Investment
18.63
0.58
3.22%
GAIN
Gladstone Investment
15.90
2.66
20.12%
SLRC
SLR Investment Corp.
12.97
-1.82
-12.30%
TCPC
BlackRock TCP Capital
3.73
-2.74
-42.38%
CCAP
Crescent Capital BDC
11.37
-2.17
-16.01%
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Nuveen Churchill Reports Q1 2026 Results, Declares Dividend
Neutral
May 7, 2026
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp., a NYSE-listed business development company specializing in senior secured loans to private equity-backed U.S. middle market borrowers, reported that as of March 31, 2026 its $2.0 billion portfolio was spread ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Nuveen Churchill Highlights Use of Rule 10b5-1 Plan
Neutral
Mar 20, 2026
On an unspecified date, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. referenced activity governed by its Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, indicating that certain securities transactions were pre-arranged under this plan. The brief disclosure suggests adherence ...
Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Nuveen Churchill Posts 2025 Results, Launches Buyback Program
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported its full-year and fourth-quarter 2025 results, highlighting fourth-quarter net investment income of $0.44 per share and a slight decline in net asset value to $17.72, as unrealiz...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.