Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL)
NYSE:NCDL
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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
(NYSE:NCDL)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▼(-2.91% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/28/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong cash generation and still-healthy profitability) and a supportive income profile (high dividend yield), partly offset by weakening revenue/margin trends and balance-sheet leverage. Technical conditions are notably weak (below major moving averages with negative MACD and low RSI/Stoch), which meaningfully reduces the overall rating despite generally positive earnings-call tone and credit-quality commentary.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent free cash flow equal to net income and ~128M TTM provides durable capacity to fund distributions, buybacks and reinvestments without relying on asset sales. This clean cash conversion supports dividend sustainability and lowers refinancing stress across business cycles.
Negative Factors
Meaningful financial leverage
Elevated absolute leverage and shrinking equity reduce loss absorption and increase sensitivity to credit or mark‑to‑market shocks. With debt materially larger than equity, capital cushions are thinner, amplifying downside risk to NAV and limiting strategic flexibility during sustained stress periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent free cash flow equal to net income and ~128M TTM provides durable capacity to fund distributions, buybacks and reinvestments without relying on asset sales. This clean cash conversion supports dividend sustainability and lowers refinancing stress across business cycles.
Read all positive factors
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$630.67M
Dividend Yield14.71%
Average Volume (3M)200.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.6
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth-12.61%
EPS Growth-36.66%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.20
Shares Outstanding49,387,066
10 Day Avg. Volume182,789
30 Day Avg. Volume200,342
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.26
Price to Book (P/B)0.77
Price to Sales (P/S)3.32
P/FCF Ratio3.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda22.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.94Price Target Upside-3.35% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$186.19M
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL), initially formed as a Delaware limited liability company on March 13, 2018, and subsequently restructured into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019, prior to commencing its business activities, oper...
How the Company Makes Money
NCDL primarily makes money from the yield it earns on its debt investment portfolio. The main revenue stream is interest income from loans it originates or acquires (generally floating-rate or fixed-rate depending on the underlying loan terms), in...
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive operational and credit-quality picture: originations and fundings increased, portfolio diversification and conservative underwriting remain intact, debt costs were meaningfully optimized through refinancing, and platform-level deal flow and scale are strong. Offsetting these positives were quarter-over-quarter declines in total investment income and GAAP net income driven by loan resets and mark-to-market unrealized losses from spread widening, a modest NAV decline (-1.2%), a slight rise in watch list and nonaccruals, and lower-than-expected repayments. Overall, the positives (originations growth, refinancing savings, stable portfolio metrics, strong platform momentum, low software exposure) materially outweigh the near-term earnings and valuation headwinds, and management expresses confidence in redeploying capital into higher-quality opportunities as spreads widen.Positive Updates
Net Investment Income (NII) and Adjusted NII
Reported NII of $0.41 per share for Q1 2026; excluding ~$0.02 per share of one-time refinancing expenses, adjusted NII was $0.43 vs $0.44 in Q4 2025 (≈2.3% decline excluding nonrecurring items).
Negative Updates
Decline in Total Investment Income
Total investment income declined to $46.3M in Q1 from $50.0M in Q4 2025, a decrease of ~7.4% QoQ, driven by loan resets to lower base rates and tighter spreads in prior quarters.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Investment Income (NII) and Adjusted NII
Reported NII of $0.41 per share for Q1 2026; excluding ~$0.02 per share of one-time refinancing expenses, adjusted NII was $0.43 vs $0.44 in Q4 2025 (≈2.3% decline excluding nonrecurring items).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s guidance emphasized a stable earnings outlook and continued capital deployment into senior middle‑market loans while optimizing financing: Q1 net investment income was $0.41/share ($0.43 ex‑$0.02 one‑time refinancing expense), GAAP net income $0.18/share, NAV $17.50 (down from $17.72, -1.2%), and the Board declared a Q2 distribution of $0.38/share ($0.36 regular + $0.02 supplemental) after a $0.40 Q1 payout. Operational metrics: portfolio fair value ~$2.0B across 236 companies (top 10 ≈13% of FV, average position 0.4%, largest 1.6%), gross originations $82.9M, fundings $85.4M, sales/repayments $65M (3.3% run‑rate vs. 4.2% prior and long‑range 5%), and equity investments $10.6M. Credit metrics remain solid with a weighted average internal risk rating of 4.3 (orig. 4.0), watch list ~8.4% of FV, portfolio net leverage 5.1x, interest coverage 2.3x, and nonaccruals 5 names (1.3% of portfolio at cost, 0.6% at FV; one new nonaccrual cost $7.2M FV $5M). Funding and yield metrics: first‑lien ≈89.7% of the portfolio, weighted average yield on debt 9.3% (9.5% Q4), average spread on new first‑lien ~471 bps (management noted spreads have widened from the prior 450–475 bps range toward ~500–525 bps), gross debt/equity 1.32x (net 1.26x) vs 1.27x/1.20x at year‑end, target leverage at the upper end of ~1.0–1.25x, and a lower weighted average cost of debt of SOFR+186 bps (from SOFR+203) after refinancing CLO‑II from SOFR+250 to SOFR+144 with a 5‑year reinvestment period. Overall, management plans to remain at the upper end of its leverage target, redeploy repayments into higher‑quality senior loans (target ~90% senior), continue the supplemental dividend program when excess earnings permit, and pursue further debt‑cost optimization while expecting a “higher‑for‑longer” rate backdrop and relatively stable near‑term earnings.Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 157.85M | 201.84M | 186.00M | 144.01M | 46.81M | 39.25M |
| Gross Profit | 95.93M | 171.31M | 111.42M | 86.03M | 23.39M | 29.43M |
| EBITDA | 77.47M | 143.66M | 116.48M | 76.77M | 17.31M | 27.27M |
| Net Income | 59.28M | 65.61M | 116.32M | 75.94M | 17.29M | 27.27M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.05B | 2.05B | 2.14B | 1.73B | 1.25B | 820.92M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.27M | 8.55M | 43.25M | 67.39M | 39.27M | 35.19M |
| Total Debt | 1.14B | 1.12B | 1.11B | 943.94M | 699.77M | 406.37M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.18B | 1.18B | 1.17B | 982.98M | 729.00M | 446.87M |
| Stockholders Equity | 864.11M | 875.18M | 970.32M | 747.88M | 524.96M | 374.05M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 128.43M | 194.16M | 136.42M | 73.05M | 25.14M | 41.32M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 128.43M | 194.16M | 136.42M | 73.05M | 25.14M | 41.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 60.80M | 0.00 | -433.62M | -442.57M | -452.99M | -429.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -188.00M | -174.98M | 273.06M | 397.65M | 431.93M | 411.70M |
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Technical Analysis
Negative
14.42
Price Trends
13.54
Negative
13.26
Negative
13.34
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.20
Negative
42.23
Neutral
28.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCDL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.93, above the 50-day MA of 13.54, and above the 200-day MA of 13.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCDL.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Risk Analysis
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. disclosed 3 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $630.67M | 10.64 | 6.76% | 14.71% | -12.61% | -36.66% | |
67 Neutral | $714.30M | 8.64 | 11.45% | 11.47% | -15.44% | -2.66% | |
57 Neutral | $414.89M | 27.55 | 2.14% | 13.20% | -18.56% | -69.62% | |
56 Neutral | $612.06M | 3.14 | 34.04% | 11.02% | -54.43% | 163.70% | |
56 Neutral | $693.39M | 7.73 | 9.04% | 10.80% | -3.59% | 2.19% | |
54 Neutral | $317.99M | -2.53 | -19.08% | 21.13% | -153.69% | -168.78% |
* Financial Sector Average
NCDL
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
12.77
-1.62
-11.28%
FDUS
Fidus Investment
18.82
0.77
4.27%
GAIN
Gladstone Investment
15.37
2.14
16.18%
SLRC
SLR Investment Corp.
12.71
-1.87
-12.81%
TCPC
BlackRock TCP Capital
3.79
-2.58
-40.46%
CCAP
Crescent Capital BDC
11.26
-1.35
-10.73%
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Nuveen Churchill Shareholders Reelect Directors at 2026 Meeting
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. held its virtual 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, with a quorum of 25,732,027 shares present or represented by proxy out of 49,387,065 shares outstanding as of the March 31, 2026 record da...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Nuveen Churchill Reports Q1 2026 Results, Declares Dividend
Neutral
May 7, 2026
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp., a NYSE-listed business development company specializing in senior secured loans to private equity-backed U.S. middle market borrowers, reported that as of March 31, 2026 its $2.0 billion portfolio was spread ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Nuveen Churchill Highlights Use of Rule 10b5-1 Plan
Neutral
Mar 20, 2026
On an unspecified date, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. referenced activity governed by its Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, indicating that certain securities transactions were pre-arranged under this plan. The brief disclosure suggests adherence ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.