Expensify (EXFY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $88.40M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 628.38K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.97
• Revenue Growth: 4.71%
• EPS Growth: 11.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 115
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 80,840,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 925,773
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 628,379
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.98
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.34
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.21
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.42
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.78
• 1Y Price Target: $3.25
• Price Target Upside: 101.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.16
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $143.18M

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.95 ▼(-41.30% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is held back primarily by weak operating fundamentals (declining revenue and ongoing GAAP losses) and a clearly bearish technical setup (price far below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a strengthened balance sheet with low leverage and recent positive free cash flow, though the earnings call’s significantly lower FY26 free cash flow guidance limits near-term confidence.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Expensify's very low leverage provides durable financial flexibility: it reduces default risk, supports continued investment in product and go-to-market, enables opportunistic buybacks or financing, and gives management time to execute a multi-year growth turnaround despite interim losses.

Positive cash generation

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow in 2024–2025 demonstrates improving cash conversion despite GAAP losses. Durable cash generation funds reinvestment and R&D, supports planned S&M and AI spending, and reduces short-term financing risk if execution sustains cash conversion.

Product momentum & ecosystem

Progress on New Expensify, broad bank connectivity and partnerships (e.g., Uber) create structural advantages: feature parity enables product-led expansion, integrations deepen switching costs, and card/interchange and travel bookings traction broaden revenue streams beyond pure subscriptions.

Negative Factors

Multi-year revenue decline

Sustained revenue declines undermine operating leverage and make profitable scaling harder. Even with solid gross margins, shrinking top line compresses absolute contribution to fixed costs, increases the urgency of successful product migration and monetization, and raises execution risk over the next several quarters.

Reduced FCF guidance / higher investment

A material step-down in guidance reflects deliberate heavier investment that will pressure near-term cash generation and margins. If investments underperform, the company risks prolonged weaker free cash flow, constrained optionality for strategic moves, and greater sensitivity to revenue volatility.

Migration & execution risk

Incomplete migration leaves a meaningful cohort exposed to churn or slower monetization; remaining migrations require polish and performance work. Execution delays or customer disruption during migration could stall revenue recovery and amplify the impact of planned spending on growth initiatives.

Expensify Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Expensify, Inc. provides a cloud-based expense management software platform to individuals, small businesses, and corporations in the United States and internationally. The company's platform enables users to manage corporate cards, pay bills, generate invoices, collect payments, and book travel. It also offers track and submit plans for individuals. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Portland, Oregon.

How the Company Makes Money

Expensify generates revenue primarily through its subscription-based model. The company offers various pricing tiers that cater to different business needs, including individual users, small teams, and large organizations. Additionally, Expensify earns money through transaction fees associated with its payment processing services and by offering premium features like advanced reporting and integrations with accounting software. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and other software providers also enhance its service offerings and contribute to its revenue streams. Furthermore, Expensify may engage in affiliate marketing and referral programs, thereby diversifying its income sources.

Expensify Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: income statement is weak (Income Statement Score 38) with multi-year revenue declines and recurring net losses, including a profitability step-back in 2025. Offsetting this, the balance sheet is conservatively positioned with low leverage (Balance Sheet Score 72), and cash generation has been a relative strength with positive operating cash flow and free cash flow in 2024–2025 (Cash Flow Score 67), though FCF was volatile historically and weakened in 2025.

Income Statement

Revenue has trended down over time (down in 2023–2025, with 2025 showing a sharp contraction), and profitability remains weak with recurring net losses across the period. Gross margin is still solid for a software model (~50–63%), but it has compressed from earlier highs, and operating performance deteriorated in 2025 versus 2024 (larger losses and negative EBITDA margin). Overall, the business shows some cost leverage in 2024, but the 2025 step-back and multi-year losses weigh heavily on the score.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears conservatively positioned today, with very low leverage in 2024–2025 (debt-to-equity around ~0.04–0.05) and a meaningful equity base. This is a notable improvement from earlier years when leverage was much higher (2020–2022). The main weakness is that returns on equity remain negative due to continuing net losses, indicating the company has not yet translated its capital base into sustainable profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength recently: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive in 2024 and 2025, with free cash flow in 2025 roughly matching the size of the net loss (suggesting good cash conversion despite accounting losses). However, free cash flow growth turned negative in 2025, and cash flow has been volatile historically (including negative free cash flow in 2021 and 2023). Overall, cash flow quality is improving but not yet consistently durable year to year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	142.10M	139.24M	150.69M	169.50M	142.84M
Gross Profit	71.53M	75.00M	83.80M	106.83M	89.14M
EBITDA	-7.83M	5.99M	-27.98M	-9.18M	-5.05M
Net Income	-21.39M	-10.05M	-41.46M	-27.01M	-13.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	185.99M	173.68M	176.78M	210.24M	183.21M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	63.08M	48.77M	47.51M	103.79M	98.40M
Total Debt	5.06M	6.47M	29.55M	67.78M	69.97M
Total Liabilities	53.24M	45.44M	76.04M	113.00M	106.60M
Stockholders Equity	132.75M	128.24M	100.74M	97.24M	76.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	20.07M	16.25M	-5.74M	30.67M	-2.13M
Operating Cash Flow	20.09M	23.88M	1.56M	32.88M	5.49M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.56M	-7.63M	-7.29M	-2.20M	-7.61M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.74M	-22.07M	-45.32M	-8.28M	80.56M

Expensify Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.61
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXFY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.30, above the 50-day MA of 1.40, and below the 200-day MA of 1.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.68 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXFY.

Expensify Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ONTF	66 Neutral	$341.66M	-11.78	-20.20%	―	-6.23%	28.57%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
MAPS	57 Neutral	$105.10M	8.91	18.24%	―	0.59%	―
FRGE	52 Neutral	$623.01M	-9.13	-28.65%	―	16.40%	22.80%
EXFY	49 Neutral	$88.40M	-4.10	-16.39%	―	4.71%	11.12%
SSTI	49 Neutral	$92.70M	-8.62	-14.61%	―	-1.83%	-642.89%

Expensify Corporate Events

Expensify Unveils 2025 Results and Growth-Focused Strategy

On February 26, 2026, Expensify posted a new investor presentation and reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing modest 2% annual revenue growth to $142.1 million, but widening net losses of $21.4 million for the year and $7.1 million in the quarter. Despite the profitability pressure, the company generated $20.1 million in operating cash flow, $19.9 million in free cash flow, and grew Expensify Card interchange revenue 24% to $21.3 million, while paid members declined 5% year on year to 650,000.

Management highlighted that New Expensify is now feature-complete for nearly all customers and deployed to 63% of paying users, with engineering shifting from migration to new features such as “bring your own card,” product-led growth mechanisms and an AI-driven “Concierge” for contextual, correctable and continuous financial workflows. Expensify also underscored momentum in its ecosystem, including a multi-year integration with Uber for Business, a 434% surge in quarterly travel bookings via Expensify Travel and share repurchases totaling about $9.1 million in 2025, positioning the company to pivot from a build phase back to a growth posture, albeit with increased planned spending on sales, marketing and AI initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (EXFY) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Expensify stock, see the EXFY Stock Forecast page.

Expensify COO Resigns as Board Elevates Engineering Leader

On December 29, 2025, Expensify, Inc. announced that Chief Operating Officer and board member Anu Muralidharan resigned from all her roles effective the same day, with the company stating her departure did not stem from any disagreement over operations, policies, or practices. Chief Strategy Officer and director Daniel Vidal assumed her COO responsibilities, with Muralidharan assisting in the transition, and the company indicated it did not expect any disruption to its operations or strategic roadmap; Expensify also entered into a separation agreement granting her $550,000 in exchange for a release of claims and ongoing compliance with agreed covenants. On the same date, the board appointed longtime engineering executive Carlos Alvarez Divo, currently Director of Engineering, to fill the board vacancy and join the Executive and Compensation Committees through the 2026 annual meeting, reinforcing internal succession by elevating a key technical leader who will not receive additional board compensation but will be covered by the company’s standard director indemnification protections.

The most recent analyst rating on (EXFY) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Expensify stock, see the EXFY Stock Forecast page.