Asure (ASUR) AI Stock Analysis

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Asure

(NASDAQ:ASUR)

61Neutral

Asure's stock score reflects robust revenue growth and strategic positioning, offset by ongoing profitability challenges and liquidity pressures. The strong contracted backlog and positive technical indicators provide a supportive outlook, though valuation concerns remain due to persistent net losses.

Positive Factors

Bookings and Backlog

1Q new bookings grew 45% year-over-year, driving contracted revenue backlog up 339%, providing ASUR with high visibility to the FY25 guide.

Revenue Growth

ASUR started FY25 on solid footing, delivering a beat with healthy momentum in revenue on new client sales of payroll tax management, benefits, and marketplace offerings.

Stock Recommendation

Recommendation remains OUTPERFORM with a 12-month price target of $17, implying a potential upside of 73%.

Negative Factors

Earnings Miss

Asure reported Q4/24 non-GAAP EPS of $0.15, which was less than our forecast of $0.17 and the FactSet consensus forecast of $0.18.

Revenue Decline

The company had a net $16.5M decline in revenue from ERTC fees, yet full-year revenue of $120M was essentially flat vs $119M a year ago, showcasing resilience in maintaining stable revenue.

Asure (ASUR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$270.73M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)74.79K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.98

Revenue Growth4.52%

EPS Growth-20.60%

CountryUS

Employees621

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength77

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.18

Shares Outstanding27,154,007

10 Day Avg. Volume74,126

30 Day Avg. Volume74,787

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio1.07

Price to Book (P/B)1.33

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-47.18

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$14.50

Price Target Upside48.87% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

Asure Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAsure Software, Inc. (ASUR) is a provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions that help organizations streamline their workforce and business processes. The company operates primarily in the technology sector, offering a suite of services that include payroll management, time and attendance tracking, benefits administration, and human resources management. Asure's solutions are designed to enhance productivity and compliance for small and medium-sized businesses across various industries.

How the Company Makes MoneyAsure Software generates revenue through a subscription-based model for its comprehensive suite of HCM solutions. The company charges clients a recurring fee for access to its cloud-based platforms and services, which are typically priced based on the number of employees managed through their systems. Additionally, Asure offers professional services, such as implementation, training, and support, which contribute to its revenue. The company also forms strategic partnerships with other technology providers to enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach, which can lead to additional revenue opportunities.

Asure Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Asure is experiencing revenue growth and improved equity positions, but profitability remains a challenge with persistent net losses. While leverage has been managed better, the company faces liquidity pressures due to negative free cash flow. Continued focus on operational efficiency and cost management is crucial for future financial health.

Income Statement

Neutral

Asure's revenue has shown a consistent growth trend, with a notable increase from $65.5M in 2020 to $123M in TTM 2025. However, the net profit margin has remained negative, indicating ongoing losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also fluctuated, with EBIT consistently negative, reflecting challenges in operational profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company has improved its equity position, with stockholders' equity increasing to $197.7M in TTM 2025. The debt-to-equity ratio has decreased, indicating better leverage management. However, total liabilities remain significant, posing a risk to financial stability.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Operating cash flow has improved over time, reaching $15.3M in TTM 2025. However, free cash flow remains negative due to high capital expenditures, which could strain liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some cash-generating ability despite net losses.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
122.99M	119.79M	119.08M	95.83M	76.06M	65.51M
	Gross Profit
80.06M	82.11M	85.54M	62.51M	46.56M	38.09M
	EBIT
-12.31M	-10.74M	-3.00M	-9.92M	-12.81M	-13.75M
	EBITDA
6.60M	-10.74M	15.81M	10.49M	23.85M	1.42M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-13.86M	-11.77M	-9.21M	-14.47M	3.19M	-16.31M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
14.08M	21.43M	30.32M	17.01M	13.43M	28.58M
	Total Assets
498.94M	436.64M	443.87M	419.91M	433.25M	515.42M
	Total Debt
19.44M	17.73M	10.44M	43.22M	41.32M	31.73M
	Net Debt
5.37M	-3.69M	-19.88M	26.21M	27.90M	3.16M
	Total Liabilities
301.28M	247.29M	252.21M	274.84M	275.00M	369.77M
	Stockholders Equity
197.66M	197.31M	191.66M	145.07M	158.24M	145.65M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-5.61M	-14.75M	2.64M	4.84M	-28.42M	-5.34M
	Operating Cash Flow
15.33M	9.39M	18.90M	13.67M	1.38M	-1.71M
	Investing Cash Flow
-27.39M	-19.26M	-29.52M	-36.00M	-36.97M	-201.13M
	Financing Cash Flow
20.82M	-22.04M	24.20M	-12.38M	-90.65M	202.59M

Asure Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price9.74

Price Trends

50DMA

9.65

Positive

100DMA

10.40

Negative

200DMA

9.69

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.06

Positive

RSI

48.75

Neutral

STOCH

44.18

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.86, above the 50-day MA of 9.65, and above the 200-day MA of 9.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASUR.

Asure Risk Analysis

Asure disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Asure reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Asure Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ASUR	61 Neutral	$270.73M	―	-7.01%	―	4.52%	-20.60%
FRGE	61 Neutral	$180.49M	―	-27.44%	―	16.03%	30.99%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$11.59B	10.34	-7.15%	2.94%	7.49%	-10.88%
ONTF	53 Neutral	$229.37M	―	-24.47%	―	-8.39%	7.79%
EGHT	51 Neutral	$237.05M	―	-24.28%	―	-2.23%	19.48%
EXFY	51 Neutral	$223.62M	―	-7.83%	―	-1.63%	77.80%
NRDY	48 Neutral	$313.08M	―	-104.69%	―	-1.64%	9.99%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ASUR

Asure

9.74

2.22

29.52%

EGHT

8X8

1.80

-1.01

-35.94%

NRDY

Nerdy

1.62

-0.28

-14.74%

FRGE

Forge Global Holdings

14.15

-12.70

-47.30%

ONTF

ON24

5.47

-0.80

-12.76%

EXFY

Expensify

2.46

0.76

44.71%

Asure Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -0.81%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted strong revenue growth and strategic advancements, such as new product launches and increased bookings. However, financial challenges such as increased net loss and EBITDA decline were noted. The company remains optimistic about future growth and profitability, supported by a solid contracted backlog and strategic investments.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue Growth

First quarter revenues reached $34.9 million, a 10% increase from the previous year. Excluding ERTC, revenues grew by 13%.

Increased New Bookings and Backlog

New bookings increased by 45% compared to the prior year. The contracted revenue backlog rose 339% year-over-year to $82 million.

Successful Product Launches and Expansions

The Payroll Tax Management product continued its momentum, launching new capabilities for Canadian companies. AsurePay is witnessing positive trends with over 70% of active card users using it more than three times per month.

Improved Profitability Forecast

The company expects adjusted EBITDA margins of 23% to 24% for the full year 2025, indicating expected profitability as revenue growth continues.

Positive Strategic Developments

Entered into a new $60 million credit facility to drive customer acquisition and potential acquisitions, aligning with the growth strategy.

Negative Updates

Net Loss Increase

Reported a net loss of $2.4 million for the first quarter, compared to a net loss of $308,000 in the prior year.

EBITDA Decline

EBITDA for the first quarter decreased to $4.1 million from $4.4 million in the prior year.

HR Compliance Revenue Depressed

HR compliance remains depressed due to product attachment activity in 2023, with expectations of better performance in the second half of 2025.

Slight Decline in Float Revenue

Float revenue was slightly down due to rate reductions in the federal funds rate, though mitigated by increases in average fund balances.

Company Guidance

During Asure's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, significant guidance was provided regarding the company's financial outlook and strategic initiatives. Asure reported strong first-quarter revenues of $34.9 million, marking a 10% increase year-over-year, driven by robust performance in Payroll Tax Management and other offerings. The company's contracted revenue backlog surged by 339% to $82 million, providing confidence for the remainder of the year. Asure reiterated its full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $134-$138 million, with adjusted EBITDA margins anticipated to be between 23% and 24%. The firm highlighted increased attach rates and noted that 45% growth in new bookings was achieved. Asure is also investing in technology and sales infrastructure, including expanding AsurePay and enhancing their product suite, to support future revenue growth and cross-selling opportunities. The company secured a $60 million credit facility to fuel potential acquisitions, reflecting its commitment to both organic and inorganic growth strategies.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.