Waldencast (WALD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $201.57M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 145.38K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.38
• Revenue Growth: 14.22%
• EPS Growth: -141.64%
• Country: US
• Employees: 335
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): -0.27
• Shares Outstanding: 118,021,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 133,325
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 145,381
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.79
• P/FCF Ratio: -13.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.94
• 1Y Price Target: $2.00
• Price Target Upside: 26.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.42
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $302.72M

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-5.06% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/15/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/15/26

The score is held down primarily by ongoing losses and persistent negative operating/free cash flow, which raise sustainability and funding-risk concerns despite a reasonably manageable balance sheet. Technicals add pressure as the stock trades below all major moving averages with negative MACD. Valuation remains challenged because earnings are negative and no dividend yield is provided.

Positive Factors

Brand Portfolio

Waldencast owns prestige brands with distinct channel footprints (professional/medical, prestige retail, DTC). This diversification supports durable revenue streams, reduces single-channel dependence, and allows margin capture via DTC while leveraging professional relationships for higher‑value sales.

Obagi Medical Expansion

FDA approval and launch of an injectables platform position Obagi in medical aesthetics, a structurally higher‑margin, clinic‑driven category. This creates a sustainable new revenue vector tied to professional partners, strengthens brand differentiation, and raises barriers to entry versus commodity skincare.

Deleveraging Actions

Asset sale and refinancing materially reduced leverage and repaid debt, improving balance‑sheet flexibility. Lower indebtedness cuts interest burden and funding risk, providing runway to execute product investments and strategic review without immediate pressure from creditors.

Negative Factors

Negative Cash Flow

Sustained negative operating and free cash flow over multiple years means the business does not self‑fund operations or growth, creating ongoing reliance on external financing or asset sales. This constrains strategic flexibility and raises execution risk if funding access tightens.

Persistent Losses

Ongoing negative EBIT and a materially wider net loss in 2025 erode retained earnings and hinder reinvestment. Even with pockets of margin improvement, persistent operating losses indicate underlying cost structure or revenue mix issues that must be fixed to reach sustainable profitability.

Revenue Stagnation & Intl Weakness

After multi‑year growth, 2025 revenue flattened and Milk Makeup faced softer international demand. Stalled top‑line and regional softness signal execution or channel challenges and increase dependence on a few growth drivers, making durable revenue expansion less certain.

Waldencast Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Waldencast Acquisition Corp. a skin care company, provides advanced skin care treatments. Its products are designed to help minimize the appearance of premature skin aging, skin damage, hyperpigmentation, acne, and sun damage primarily available through dermatologists, plastic surgeons, medical spas, and other skin care professionals. Its portfolio includes Obagi Medical that provides transformational skin care products formulated to minimize signs of skin aging, address dark spots, hyperpigmentation, fine lines, and wrinkles and to protect and enhance skin tone and texture; and Obagi Clinical that offers skin care products designed to prevent the early signs of skin aging. The company was founded in 1988 and is based in White Plains, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Waldencast makes money primarily by selling beauty products through its brand portfolio. Revenue is generated from (1) wholesale sales to retailers and distributors (e.g., beauty specialty retailers, department stores, and international distribution partners) where Waldencast ships finished goods and recognizes product revenue, and (2) direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales through brand e-commerce sites, where the company captures the full retail margin but also incurs customer acquisition, fulfillment, and platform costs. For Obagi, an important portion of sales is tied to professional/medical-channel distribution (e.g., dermatologists, plastic surgeons, med-spas, and related clinics) alongside broader retail and online availability; for Milk Makeup, sales are primarily driven through prestige beauty retail partners and online channels. The company’s earnings are influenced by brand marketing and product innovation, retailer performance and shelf space, international expansion via distributors, pricing and promotional strategy, and supply-chain execution (manufacturing/packaging and logistics). Specific details on any single “significant partnership” contribution are null.

Waldencast Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: the balance sheet is relatively stable with manageable leverage and declining debt, but profitability remains weak with consistently negative EBIT and a sharply wider net loss in 2025. Cash flow is a major risk, with negative operating and free cash flow from 2022–2025, indicating ongoing funding dependence despite some improvement versus earlier periods.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded strongly from 2022 to 2024 (roughly $166M to $274M), but growth stalled in 2025 (slight decline). Gross profit margin has been volatile—improving meaningfully in 2023 and remaining strong in 2025—yet profitability remains weak: EBIT is consistently negative and net losses widened sharply in 2025 (net loss far larger than prior years). EBITDA was positive in 2024 but slipped back near breakeven/negative in 2025, highlighting an uneven path toward sustainable earnings.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable in recent years, with debt-to-equity around the high-20% range and total debt declining in 2025 versus 2024. The company maintains a sizable equity base relative to assets in the 2022–2025 period, which provides balance-sheet flexibility. The key weakness is persistent negative returns on equity driven by ongoing net losses, which erodes book value over time if profitability does not improve.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a core concern: operating cash flow is negative from 2022 through 2025, and free cash flow is also negative over that span, indicating the business is not yet self-funding. Losses are not being converted into cash, and while free cash flow improved versus 2024, it is still meaningfully below zero. The one bright spot is that cash burn is far lower than the 2022 trough, suggesting some operational progress, but not enough to reduce funding risk materially.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Mar 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	272.07M	273.87M	218.14M	166.13M	142.47M
Gross Profit	123.83M	131.73M	141.58M	39.44M	87.44M
EBITDA	-2.49M	28.63M	-33.54M	-99.25M	15.05M
Net Income	-229.75M	-42.44M	-89.98M	-116.62M	-19.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	816.20M	975.86M	1.04B	1.09B	184.59M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	31.89M	14.80M	22.58M	8.69M	12.79M
Total Debt	149.01M	182.11M	177.72M	199.25M	118.86M
Total Liabilities	316.10M	245.92M	273.44M	290.18M	145.35M
Stockholders Equity	461.88M	662.32M	624.63M	639.24M	39.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-16.25M	-11.83M	-31.82M	-87.51M	2.24M
Operating Cash Flow	-12.82M	-8.82M	-29.77M	-85.01M	3.53M
Investing Cash Flow	76.23M	-2.92M	-1.99M	-545.28M	-3.79M
Financing Cash Flow	-47.22M	5.58M	44.33M	633.35M	5.16M

Waldencast Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.58
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WALD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.66, below the 50-day MA of 1.69, and below the 200-day MA of 1.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WALD.

Waldencast Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ONTF	66 Neutral	$345.08M	-11.71	-20.20%	―	-6.23%	28.57%
PERF	64 Neutral	$141.57M	36.20	3.06%	―	14.47%	11.29%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
MKTW	62 Neutral	$230.82M	6.24	-38.92%	14.78%	-19.17%	308.81%
NRDY	46 Neutral	$171.15M	-3.15	-145.86%	―	-9.86%	0.87%
WALD	45 Neutral	$201.57M	-0.93	-34.75%	―	14.22%	-141.64%

Waldencast Corporate Events

Waldencast Posts Flat 2025 Results as Obagi Surges, Launches Strategic Review and Deleveraging Drive

On March 13, 2026, Waldencast reported flat full-year 2025 net revenue of $272.1 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $16.1 million, with Q4 2025 revenue steady at $72.0 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $6.6 million. The quarter saw a net loss of $33.5 million, mainly from refinancing costs, while margin pressure stemmed from inventory adjustments at Obagi Medical and higher promotional activity at Milk Makeup.

Obagi Medical delivered strong underlying growth in 2025, driven by international demand, U.S. e‑commerce strength and preparation for its entry into medical aesthetics, including FDA approval of Obagi saypha MagIQ filler and the March 2026 launch of its injectables platform. Milk Makeup expanded U.S. distribution via Ulta Beauty and Amazon Premium Beauty and grew U.S. consumption ahead of the prestige makeup market, but softer international sales led to lower annual net revenue and prompted leadership changes and a renewed focus on innovation.

To strengthen its balance sheet and sharpen its strategy, Waldencast sold the Obagi Japan trademark rights in November 2025 for $82.5 million, using most of the proceeds to repay debt, and refinanced its credit facilities, materially reducing leverage. The board is also conducting a broad strategic review with Lazard as advisor, and, amid this process and ongoing transformation, the company declined to issue a fiscal 2026 outlook, leaving investors awaiting clarity on potential transactions or further portfolio moves.

The most recent analyst rating on (WALD) stock is a Sell with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waldencast stock, see the WALD Stock Forecast page.

Waldencast Shareholders Back Board Slate and Auditor at January 2026 AGM

On January 14, 2026, Waldencast plc, a foreign private issuer listed in the United States and headquartered in London, held its annual general meeting of shareholders, with 72.05% of outstanding ordinary shares represented in person or by proxy. At the meeting, shareholders approved the re-appointment of three Class III directors—Michel Brousset, Felipe Dutra and Simon Dai—to serve until the 2028 general meeting, and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the next financial year, with the audit committee to determine the auditor’s remuneration, signaling continued support for the existing board composition and audit oversight structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (WALD) stock is a Sell with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waldencast stock, see the WALD Stock Forecast page.

Waldencast Sets January 2026 AGM and Reshapes Board Following Director Resignations

On December 19, 2025, Waldencast plc announced that it will hold its 2025 annual general meeting of shareholders on January 14, 2026, at Michelin House in London, with voting rights reserved for shareholders of record as of December 9, 2025, when the company had just over 128 million ordinary shares outstanding across its Class A and Class B stock. The company also disclosed that directors Lindsay Pattison and Zack Werner have notified the board of their intention to resign ahead of the meeting, prompting a board reclassification approved on December 2, 2025, that organizes directors into three classes and, assuming the reappointment of all Class III directors, will result in a nine-member board with concentrated experience in beauty, finance and consumer products, signaling a continued emphasis on sector-specific governance and continuity for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (WALD) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waldencast stock, see the WALD Stock Forecast page.