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Waldencast (WALD)
NASDAQ:WALD
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Waldencast
(NASDAQ:WALD)
Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(0.67% Upside)
Positive Factors
Brand Performance
Obagi saw strong sell-through in their core channels, which is a positive indicator for the brand.
Earnings
Management noted 2Q sales were positive YOY, indicating improvement from the previous quarter.
Negative Factors
Expectations
Management also lowered their FY25 expectations as they are now positioning 2025 as an investment year.
Financial Performance
WALD missed expectations and posted 1Q25 revenue of $65.4mm vs. Street's $68.1mm and adj. EBITDA of $4.4mm vs. Street's $10.3mm.
Supply Chain
Obagi's sales were weaker than anticipated due to ongoing supply chain challenges leading to out-of-stock situations for key products.
Waldencast (WALD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$186.54M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)389.35K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth25.55%
EPS Growth61.22%
CountryUS
Employees335
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength50
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding112,054,380
10 Day Avg. Volume581,147
30 Day Avg. Volume389,346
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.67
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.13K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.20Price Target Upside114.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
Waldencast Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionWaldencast Acquisition Corp. a skin care company, provides advanced skin care treatments. Its products are designed to help minimize the appearance of premature skin aging, skin damage, hyperpigmentation, acne, and sun damage primarily available through dermatologists, plastic surgeons, medical spas, and other skin care professionals. Its portfolio includes Obagi Medical that provides transformational skin care products formulated to minimize signs of skin aging, address dark spots, hyperpigmentation, fine lines, and wrinkles and to protect and enhance skin tone and texture; and Obagi Clinical that offers skin care products designed to prevent the early signs of skin aging. The company was founded in 1988 and is based in White Plains, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyWaldencast makes money primarily through the acquisition, development, and management of beauty and wellness brands. The company's revenue model involves purchasing promising brands and leveraging its operational expertise to enhance their market presence and profitability. Key revenue streams include the sale of beauty and personal care products through various distribution channels, including retail partnerships and e-commerce platforms. Strategic partnerships and collaborations with retailers and other industry players also contribute to its earnings, enabling Waldencast to access broader markets and optimize its brand portfolio's growth potential.
Waldencast Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call indicated both progress and challenges. While Waldencast achieved strong adjusted gross profit margins and successful product launches, revenue declined overall, and supply chain disruptions impacted performance. The company remains optimistic about future growth amid macroeconomic pressures.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted Gross Profit Margin
Achieved an adjusted gross profit margin of 76.4%, representing an increase of 10 basis points year-over-year.
Obagi Medical Revenue Growth
Obagi Medical's net revenue increased by 7.1% from the first quarter of 2024, driven by strategic supply chain transformations.
Successful Milk Makeup Launches
Milk Makeup's Hydro Grip Gel Skin Tint launch was highly successful, selling out quickly and generating significant media value.
Ulta Beauty Partnership
Milk Makeup's launch into Ulta Beauty's top 600 doors was successful, showing high consumer demand and strong initial sell-out.
Operational Efficiency Improvements
Advancements in supply chain transformation, including consolidation of third-party logistics providers and optimization of distribution centers.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue Decline
Reported a net revenue of $65.4 million, representing a decline of 4.1% from the first quarter of last year.
Milk Makeup Revenue Decline
Milk Makeup saw a revenue decline of 15.1% due to international sales contraction and inventory adjustments by retail partners.
Supply Chain Disruptions for Obagi Medical
Out-of-stock issues in key SKUs due to ongoing supply chain restructuring, impacting fulfillment rates.
Increased Costs and Debt
Net debt increased to $172.1 million, with cash consumption reflecting low adjusted EBITDA and inventory increases.
Macroeconomic Pressures
Expectations of pressure from softer consumer sentiment and spending, potentially impacting broader macroeconomic performance.
Company Guidance
In the Waldencast First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, guidance was provided with an optimistic outlook for the fiscal year, despite some challenges. The company reported a net revenue of $65.4 million, a decline of 4.1% year-over-year, with an adjusted gross profit margin of 76.4% and adjusted EBITDA of $4.4 million, reflecting a margin of 6.7%. Guidance for fiscal 2025 includes targeting mid-teens net revenue growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid to high-teens. The company anticipates accelerated growth driven by innovations in Milk Makeup and Obagi Medical brands, expansion in digital channels, and improved product availability. Additionally, potential tariff impacts are expected to be manageable, with a low single-digit percent increase in cost of goods sold factored into the guidance.Waldencast Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Waldencast Acquisition shows promising revenue growth and a strong gross profit margin, yet struggles with profitability and cash generation. The balance sheet is strong with a favorable equity position and moderate leverage, but overall performance is hindered by negative operating cash flow and net losses.Income Statement
Waldencast Acquisition has demonstrated revenue growth from 2023 to 2024, with a notable increase of 25.5% in total revenue. However, the company is still not profitable, as indicated by negative net income and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin shows strength at 70% for 2024, suggesting efficient production processes, but the negative EBIT margin of -21.4% highlights ongoing operational challenges.60
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a solid equity base with an equity ratio of 67.9%, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio remains manageable at 0.27, suggesting the company is not overly reliant on debt financing. However, the return on equity is negative due to persistent losses, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns from shareholders' equity.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals negative free cash flow, although there is an improvement from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow remains negative, indicating challenges in generating cash from core operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not meaningful due to negative values, highlighting cash constraints.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 273.87M | 273.87M | 218.14M | 166.13M | 142.47M | 94.43M |
| Gross Profit | 191.74M | 191.74M | 141.58M | 39.44M | 87.44M | 65.33M |
| EBITDA | 606.00K | 28.63M | -33.54M | -99.25M | 15.05M | 13.94M |
| Net Income | -42.44M | -42.44M | -89.98M | -116.62M | -19.58M | -2.37M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 975.86M | 975.86M | 1.04B | 1.09B | 184.59M | 166.79K |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 14.80M | 14.80M | 22.58M | 8.69M | 12.79M | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 182.11M | 182.11M | 177.72M | 199.25M | 118.86M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 245.92M | 245.92M | 273.44M | 290.18M | 145.35M | 177.74K |
| Stockholders Equity | 662.32M | 662.32M | 624.63M | 639.24M | 39.24M | -10.95K |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -11.53M | -11.83M | -31.82M | -87.51M | 2.24M | -9.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -8.82M | -8.82M | -29.77M | -85.01M | 3.53M | -7.43M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.92M | -2.92M | -1.99M | -545.28M | -3.79M | -1.71M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.58M | 5.58M | 44.33M | 633.35M | 5.16M | 14.32M |
Waldencast Technical Analysis
Negative
1.49
Price Trends
2.09
Negative
2.30
Negative
2.80
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
33.69
Neutral
9.54
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WALD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.69, below the 50-day MA of 2.09, and below the 200-day MA of 2.80, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WALD.
Waldencast Risk Analysis
Waldencast disclosed 100 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Waldencast reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Risks Related to Internal Controls and Financial Reporting Q4, 2023
2.
Risks Relating to our Business Operations and Financial Condition Q4, 2023
3.
Risks Related to the Ownership of our Securities Q4, 2023
Waldencast Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $203.70M | 32.51 | 4.19% | ― | 13.19% | 9.39% | |
63 Neutral | $20.42B | 14.64 | -2.96% | 3.11% | 2.04% | -6.12% | |
58 Neutral | $243.74M | ― | -28.14% | ― | 14.78% | 21.87% | |
56 Neutral | $235.22M | ― | -22.60% | ― | -6.88% | 15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $292.72M | 1.67 | -10.56% | 9.65% | -17.17% | 497.89% | |
48 Neutral | $252.69M | ― | -105.81% | ― | -10.85% | -15.09% | |
47 Neutral | $186.54M | ― | -6.60% | ― | 25.55% | 61.22% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
WALD
Waldencast
1.49
-2.17
-59.29%
MKTW
MarketWise
17.62
3.47
24.52%
NRDY
Nerdy
1.31
0.30
29.70%
FRGE
Forge Global Holdings
17.97
-1.23
-6.41%
ONTF
ON24
5.45
-0.70
-11.38%
PERF
Perfect Corp
1.97
0.07
3.68%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.