Erste Group Bank AG (EBKDY)
OTHER OTC:EBKDY
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Erste Group Bank AG
(OTC:EBKDY)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$62.00
▲(1.52% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/23/26
The score is supported primarily by strong underlying profitability and a positive forward outlook/capital position from the earnings call, but it is held back by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and some fundamental risk from higher leverage and historically volatile cash-flow generation; valuation is also on the expensive side for the group despite the dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improving profitability & margins
Sustained high margins and recent revenue expansion indicate a robust core franchise: net interest and fee engines are generating durable operating profitability that supports internal capital accumulation, funds reinvestment, and provides a buffer for cyclical credit costs over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Higher leverage reduces balance-sheet flexibility and increases sensitivity to funding-cost shocks or regulatory capital pressure. If credit conditions deteriorate, elevated debt levels could force more conservative lending or capital measures, constraining strategic optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving profitability & margins
Sustained high margins and recent revenue expansion indicate a robust core franchise: net interest and fee engines are generating durable operating profitability that supports internal capital accumulation, funds reinvestment, and provides a buffer for cyclical credit costs over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Erste Group Bank AG (EBKDY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$46.47B
Dividend Yield2.84%
Average Volume (3M)1.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.2
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth-7.11%
EPS Growth2.78%
CountryUS
Employees45,856
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.22
Shares Outstanding821,028,750
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume1,612
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio9.96
Price to Book (P/B)3.68
Price to Sales (P/S)4.08
P/FCF Ratio25.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.56
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)5.74
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.44B
Erste Group Bank AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Erste Group Bank AG provides a range of banking and other financial services to retail, corporate, real estate, and public sector customers in Austria, Central and Eastern Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Retail, Corporate...
How the Company Makes Money
Erste Group Bank AG generates earnings mainly from core banking activities. A primary revenue stream is net interest income: the bank earns interest on loans and other interest-bearing assets (such as consumer, mortgage, and corporate lending) and...
Erste Group Bank AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operating and capital performance in 2025: record NII and fee income, robust loan and deposit growth, materially higher CET1 (19.3%), improved asset quality (NPL ratio 2.4%) and clear 2026 targets including elevated NII and ROTE ambitions for the enlarged group. However, several notable caveats temper the outlook: 2025 profits were boosted by one-off items, there are material integration costs and IFRS provisioning tied to the Polish consolidation, expected higher banking levies, and some regional/line-item uncertainties (fee classification from Poland, pricing competition in select markets). On balance the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights because core franchise momentum, capital strength, and clear 2026 targets dominate the narrative.Positive Updates
Record Revenues and Strong Core Income
Erste posted record revenues in 2025 driven by core lines: net interest income (NII) of almost EUR 7.8 billion (up ~3.5% year-on-year) and net fee income of nearly EUR 3.2 billion (up 8.6% y/y). Quarterly NII topped EUR 2.0 billion for the first time (Q4 NII +4.6% y/y, +2.7% q/q) and Q4 fees reached EUR 850 million (+9.1% y/y, +6.5% q/q).
Negative Updates
One-off Items Inflated Reported Profit
Other result benefitted from net positive one-offs of ~EUR 270 million pretax (~EUR 250 million post-tax), inflating reported net profit and capital generation; management emphasized these are unlikely to repeat in 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenues and Strong Core Income
Erste posted record revenues in 2025 driven by core lines: net interest income (NII) of almost EUR 7.8 billion (up ~3.5% year-on-year) and net fee income of nearly EUR 3.2 billion (up 8.6% y/y). Quarterly NII topped EUR 2.0 billion for the first time (Q4 NII +4.6% y/y, +2.7% q/q) and Q4 fees reached EUR 850 million (+9.1% y/y, +6.5% q/q).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance summary: for 2026 Erste targets organic loan growth of >5% (for Erste ex‑Poland and similar including Poland) driving a combined loan stock >€285bn by year‑end; net interest income north of €11bn (mid‑single‑digit NII growth ex‑Poland), fee income about €4bn, and operating expenses around €7bn for the enlarged group (organic OpEx inflation target ~3%); cost/income expected to improve toward ~47% (Erste ex‑Poland) and ~45% for the combined group; risk costs forecast 25–30bp including Poland (20–25bp ex‑Poland), with a one‑off IFRS9 ECL on consolidation of ~€300m gross (~€120m net) and remaining integration costs ~€180m plus intangibles amortization ~€210m gross (~€70m net); management expects adjusted (clean) net profit somewhat above €4bn in 2026 (vs. adjusted €3.3bn in 2025), implying ROTE ~19% and EPS uplift >20%; capital: CET1 was 19.3% YE‑2025 and management aims to remain >13.5% and reach a new target CET1 of 14.25% during 2026; asset quality should stay stable (group NPL ~2.4%, coverage ~70%); other result in 2026 is expected to more closely mirror regulatory charges (~€450m), and NII sensitivity to a 100bp instant cut is ~€170m.Erste Group Bank AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
79
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 20.58B | 22.48B | 22.58B | 13.69B | 9.21B |
| Gross Profit | 11.76B | 10.89B | 10.32B | 8.40B | 7.60B |
| EBITDA | 5.96B | 5.55B | 5.43B | 3.82B | 3.54B |
| Net Income | 3.37B | 3.13B | 3.00B | 2.17B | 1.92B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 368.42B | 353.74B | 337.15B | 323.87B | 307.43B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.93B | 42.75B | 51.43B | 35.68B | 61.92B |
| Total Debt | 55.59B | 52.58B | 44.43B | 36.57B | 32.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 333.91B | 322.97B | 308.65B | 298.56B | 283.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 22.81B | 23.14B | 21.65B | 19.35B | 18.00B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.29B | -9.78B | 2.06B | -9.29B | 10.86B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.04B | -9.03B | 2.59B | -8.81B | 11.40B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.00B | -850.00M | -599.00M | -233.00M | -483.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -630.00M | -1.55B | -1.02B | -756.00M | -1.31B |
Erste Group Bank AG Technical Analysis
Positive
61.07
Price Trends
58.32
Negative
58.17
Negative
53.02
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.28
Negative
57.53
Neutral
86.43
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EBKDY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 61.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.88, above the 50-day MA of 58.32, and above the 200-day MA of 53.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.43 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EBKDY.
Erste Group Bank AG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $100.60B | 9.08 | 21.64% | 9.77% | 11.82% | 3.41% | |
69 Neutral | $33.23B | 11.54 | 9.88% | 2.76% | -0.81% | 20.34% | |
69 Neutral | $86.40B | 10.95 | 12.12% | 3.77% | 2.91% | 33.77% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $79.39B | 12.62 | 9.93% | 3.19% | -20.94% | -18.71% | |
62 Neutral | $46.47B | 22.23 | 15.03% | 2.84% | -7.11% | 2.78% | |
62 Neutral | $61.96B | 11.75 | 8.15% | 4.12% | 22.02% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
EBKDY
Erste Group Bank AG
60.87
28.92
90.51%
TFC
Truist Financial
49.60
15.84
46.90%
ITUB
Itau Unibanco
9.16
4.23
85.84%
LYG
Lloyds Banking
5.49
2.04
58.99%
MTB
M&T Bank
219.92
66.60
43.44%
USB
US Bancorp
55.66
19.34
53.25%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.