US Bancorp (USB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $91.34B
• Dividend Yield: 3.77%
• Average Volume (3M): 11.31M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: 2.91%
• EPS Growth: 33.77%
• Country: US
• Employees: 70,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.26
• Shares Outstanding: 1,554,434,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,940,555
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,308,883
• PEG Ratio: 0.50
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.27
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.94
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.34
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.54
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.88
• 1Y Price Target: $63.67
• Price Target Upside: 8.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $30.34B

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $62.00 ▲(5.69% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins and cash flow growth) and a constructive earnings outlook (4–6% 2026 revenue growth and 200+ bps positive operating leverage), supported by reasonable valuation (12.45 P/E and 3.75% yield). Technicals are positive longer-term but show mild near-term softness (below the 20-day average and low stochastics).

Positive Factors

Fee Revenue Diversification

A large and growing fee base (42% of revenues; fee growth +7.6% YoY) reduces reliance on interest margins and smooths earnings across cycles. Durable fee diversification from payments, wealth and institutional services supports predictable revenue and higher-margin mix over the next several quarters.

BTIG Acquisition Expands Capabilities

The BTIG deal is a structural capability fill — adding equities sales, electronic trading and advisory expands capital markets revenue streams. This materially broadens product set for corporate/institutional clients, supporting sustainable fee growth and deeper client relationships over 2-6 months and longer.

Strong Cash Generation

Robust free cash flow growth and FCF-to-net-income parity show excellent cash conversion, enabling reinvestment, organic growth initiatives and a credible path to higher buybacks. Sustained cash generation underpins capital returns and funds strategic investments without immediate capital market dependence.

Negative Factors

Regulatory / Category Two Risk

Assets near the ~$700B threshold create a persistent regulatory overhang; crossing into Category Two or facing tailored supervision could impose stricter capital, liquidity or reporting demands. That structural risk can constrain capital deployment and raise ongoing compliance costs over the medium term.

Relatively High Leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.23 and modest equity ratio indicate elevated leverage for a regional bank. Higher leverage reduces capital flexibility, amplifies sensitivity to shocks, and can limit buybacks or growth if capital ratios tighten, making capital management a durable constraint on strategy.

Large Investment Portfolio Repricing Risk

Holding $171B in securities exposes net interest margin to long-term rate and spread moves. If long-term rates compress, reinvestment and portfolio repricing can structurally limit NIM expansion and PPNR upside, requiring ongoing balance-sheet remixing to sustain margins over the next several quarters.

US Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

U.S. Bancorp, a financial services holding company, provides various financial services to individuals, businesses, institutional organizations, governmental entities and other financial institutions in the United States. It operates in Corporate and Commercial Banking, Consumer and Business Banking, Wealth Management and Investment Services, Payment Services, and Treasury and Corporate Support segments. The company offers depository services, including checking accounts, savings accounts, and time certificate contracts; lending services, such as traditional credit products; and credit card services, lease financing and import/export trade, asset-backed lending, agricultural finance, and other products. It also provides ancillary services comprising capital markets, treasury management, and receivable lock-box collection services to corporate and governmental entity customers; and a range of asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations, and charitable organizations. In addition, the company offers investment and insurance products to its customers principally within its markets, as well as fund administration services to a range of mutual and other funds. Further, it provides corporate and purchasing card, and corporate trust services; and merchant processing services, as well as investment management, ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, and brokerage and leasing services. As of December 31, 2021, the company provided its products and services through a network of 2,230 banking offices principally operating in the Midwest and West regions of the United States, as well as through on-line services, over mobile devices, and other distribution channels; and operated a network of 4,059 ATMs. The company was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

How the Company Makes Money

US Bancorp generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income is derived from the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. The bank offers a variety of loan products, including commercial loans, residential mortgages, and consumer loans, which contribute significantly to its interest income. Non-interest income comes from fees associated with services such as payment processing, wealth management, investment banking, and card services. Additionally, USB benefits from fees generated through asset management and trust services. Strategic partnerships, particularly in payment processing and technology solutions, enhance its revenue potential. Macroeconomic factors, interest rate fluctuations, and loan demand also significantly influence the bank's earnings.

US Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and healthy operating efficiency (TTM gross margin 62.91%, net margin 17.38%, EBIT margin 21.99%), supported by strong free cash flow growth (TTM +53.74%). Offsetting factors include modestly declining TTM revenue (-2.31%) and relatively high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.23).

Income Statement

US Bancorp's income statement shows a strong gross profit margin of 62.91% and a net profit margin of 17.38% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating solid profitability. However, the revenue growth rate has declined by 2.31% in the TTM, which is a concern. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 21.99% and 23.91%, respectively, reflecting efficient operations.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.23, which is relatively high, indicating significant leverage. However, the return on equity (ROE) is strong at 11.81%, showing effective use of equity. The equity ratio stands at 9.11%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis highlights a robust free cash flow growth rate of 53.74% in the TTM, demonstrating strong cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 1.38%, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is excellent at 1.0, indicating efficient cash conversion.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	42.86B	42.71B	40.62B	27.40B	23.71B
Gross Profit	26.93B	25.10B	25.74B	22.21B	23.89B
EBITDA	10.29B	8.85B	7.88B	7.86B	10.66B
Net Income	7.58B	6.30B	5.43B	5.83B	7.96B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	692.35B	678.32B	663.49B	674.80B	573.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	46.89B	142.87B	130.56B	125.59B	161.31B
Total Debt	77.93B	73.52B	66.76B	71.05B	43.92B
Total Liabilities	626.69B	619.28B	607.72B	623.57B	517.90B
Stockholders Equity	65.19B	58.58B	55.31B	50.77B	54.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	11.27B	8.45B	21.12B	9.87B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	11.27B	8.45B	21.12B	9.87B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-24.53B	18.93B	7.50B	-57.49B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	8.57B	-19.72B	-3.98B	13.94B

US Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 58.66
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For USB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.01, above the 50-day MA of 55.80, and above the 200-day MA of 48.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.94 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for USB.

US Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RF	81 Outperform	$26.36B	13.07	11.68%	3.74%	4.00%	28.54%
USB	78 Outperform	$91.34B	12.73	12.18%	3.77%	2.91%	33.77%
FITB	74 Outperform	$48.91B	15.19	12.20%	3.14%	0.15%	11.62%
MTB	74 Outperform	$35.62B	13.63	9.77%	2.76%	-0.81%	20.34%
TFC	72 Outperform	$67.40B	13.79	8.24%	4.12%	22.02%	―
PNC	72 Outperform	$90.77B	14.03	11.99%	3.11%	1.79%	30.93%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

US Bancorp Corporate Events

US Bancorp Posts Record Q4 Results, Plans BTIG Acquisition

U.S. Bancorp reported record net revenue of $7.37 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025 and $28.66 billion for the full year, with quarterly net income rising 23% year over year to $2.05 billion and full-year net income reaching $7.57 billion. For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, diluted EPS climbed to $1.26, up about 18% year over year on an adjusted basis, while returns on tangible common equity and assets improved to 18.4% and 1.19%, respectively, supported by higher net interest income, margin expansion to 2.77%, robust fee growth, stable noninterest expenses and a CET1 ratio of 10.8%, underscoring stronger profitability, healthy credit metrics and solid capital. CEO Gunjan Kedia said the improving results reflected effective strategy execution, balance sheet remixing and record consumer deposits, and the company also announced a definitive agreement to acquire BTIG, LLC, a leading investment banking and institutional brokerage firm, in a move that will significantly expand U.S. Bancorp’s capital markets capabilities, deepen relationships with corporate and institutional clients, and provide BTIG’s global workforce with access to larger-scale resources and technology.

The most recent analyst rating on (USB) stock is a Buy with a $61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on US Bancorp stock, see the USB Stock Forecast page.

U.S. Bancorp to Acquire BTIG in $1 Billion Deal

On January 12, 2026, U.S. Bancorp signed a definitive agreement to acquire BTIG Parent and its subsidiaries, including BTIG, LLC, in a transaction that values the business at up to $1 billion and is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory and other customary conditions. The deal includes an initial consideration of $362.5 million in cash and 6,600,594 U.S. Bancorp common shares, plus up to $275 million in contingent cash payments over three years tied to revenue performance, and is projected to have a negligible impact on 2026 earnings per share while trimming the bank’s CET1 ratio by about 12 basis points at closing without altering near‑term capital return plans. By adding BTIG’s institutional equity sales and trading, equity capital markets, electronic trading, research, prime brokerage and M&A advisory capabilities to its existing fixed income and derivatives strengths, U.S. Bancorp aims to close key product gaps for corporate and institutional clients, deepen long-standing referral-based ties with BTIG, and accelerate capital markets revenue growth, while BTIG’s leadership team remains in place under U.S. Bancorp ownership.

The most recent analyst rating on (USB) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on US Bancorp stock, see the USB Stock Forecast page.

U.S. Bancorp Executives to Present at Boston Conference

On November 7, 2025, key executives from U.S. Bancorp, including John Stern, Mark Runkel, and Courtney Kelso, are scheduled to present at the BancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference. The presentation will cover U.S. Bancorp’s strategic priorities and financial performance, highlighting its focus on payments transformation and organic growth. The company aims to deepen relationships and expand its reach, leveraging its strong financial foundation to achieve positive operating leverage and meet its financial targets.

The most recent analyst rating on (USB) stock is a Buy with a $53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on US Bancorp stock, see the USB Stock Forecast page.