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Erste Group Bank AG (EBKDY)
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Erste Group Bank AG (EBKDY) AI Stock Analysis

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EBKDY

Erste Group Bank AG

(OTC:EBKDY)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
Erste Group Bank AG's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are key strengths, supporting a favorable stock score. The positive earnings outlook is tempered by regional challenges in Austria, and technical indicators suggest caution due to overbought conditions. Overall, the stock presents a compelling investment opportunity with some risks to monitor.

Erste Group Bank AG (EBKDY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Erste Group Bank AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionErste Group Bank AG is a prominent financial services provider in Central and Eastern Europe, headquartered in Vienna, Austria. The bank operates in several sectors including retail banking, corporate banking, and investment banking. Erste Group offers a wide range of financial products and services such as loans, savings accounts, asset management, and insurance solutions. It serves millions of customers across several countries, contributing to the economic development of the region.
How the Company Makes MoneyErste Group Bank AG generates revenue primarily through its core banking activities. Retail banking is a significant source of income, with the bank earning interest on loans and mortgages provided to individual customers. Corporate banking also contributes substantially, with revenue coming from loans, credit services, and financial advisory for businesses. Additionally, the bank earns fees and commissions from asset management, insurance products, and transactional services. Erste Group's strategic partnerships and its regional focus further enhance its ability to capture market opportunities and drive profitability. The bank's investment banking operations, including trading and underwriting services, also play a role in its overall earnings.

Erste Group Bank AG Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a generally positive outlook with strong financial performance and strategic growth in core areas. However, there are challenges related to operating expenses, interest income pressure, and uncertainties around potential acquisitions.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Results
Erste Group reported solid financial results for Q1 2025, with revenues growing slightly year-on-year driven by core income from net interest income and fees. Return on tangible equity exceeded the 15% target for 2025.
Fee Income Growth
Net fee income rose by 9.5% year-on-year, leading to an upgrade in fee growth guidance to more than 5% for 2025.
Improved Asset Quality
The NPL ratio improved to 2.5%, and the NPL coverage ratio increased by 2 percentage points, indicating strong asset quality across the group, especially in Central and Eastern Europe.
Loan and Deposit Growth
Annual loan growth topped 5% for the first time in almost two years, with customer deposits growing by 4.6% year-on-year.
Capital Strength and Flexibility
The CET1 ratio increased to 16.2% pro forma, providing flexibility for capital deployment options including potential M&A or increased shareholder distributions.
Negative Updates
Operating Expense Increase
Operating expenses increased by 4.8% year-on-year, driven by personnel expenses and higher banking taxes in Austria and Hungary.
Net Interest Income Pressure
Net interest income was pressured by lower ECB rates and limited support from volume growth in Austria, with an expectation of flattish NII for 2025.
Potential Risks in Poland Acquisition
Discussions with Banco Santander about acquiring a 49% stake in Santander Bank Polska are ongoing, with no certainty of the transaction. Concerns include strategic and financial impacts, as well as regulatory risks like Swiss franc loans.
Higher Banking Levies
Higher banking taxes in Austria and Hungary affected other results, with a significant impact on quarterly financials.
Company Guidance
In the Erste Group's First Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call, the management provided several key financial metrics and outlooks. The company's operating expenses increased by 4.8% year-on-year, aligning with guidance, and the efficiency ratio stood at 48%, well within the full-year target. The net interest income showed slight year-on-year growth, driven by core income, including net interest and fees, despite challenges such as higher banking taxes in Austria. The return on tangible equity exceeded 15%, surpassing the 2025 target. Erste Group upgraded its fee growth guidance to more than 5%, indicating strong performance. The capital ratio CET1 improved to 15.9%, with a pro forma ratio of 16.2% after a positive Basel IV impact. The loan growth guidance is set at about 5% for 2025, supported by a 0.9% year-to-date increase in customer loans. The company is exploring a potential acquisition of a 49% stake in Santander Bank Polska, emphasizing the need for any merger and acquisition activity to enhance profitability and shareholder value.

Erste Group Bank AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Erste Group Bank AG shows a robust financial profile with strong revenue growth and profitability metrics. The balance sheet is stable with prudent leverage, and cash flows are effectively managed, though some historical volatility is noted. Continued focus on operational efficiencies and cash flow stability is recommended.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM revenue increase from the previous year. Gross profit margin and net profit margin are healthy, indicating efficient cost management and profitability. However, the EBITDA margin is relatively low, suggesting limited operational efficiency improvements.
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Erste Group Bank AG exhibits a strong balance sheet with a healthy equity ratio, suggesting stability and financial resilience. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable, highlighting prudent leverage levels. Return on equity is robust, indicating effective use of shareholder equity to generate profits.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
The cash flow statement reflects a solid operating cash flow to net income ratio, showcasing effective cash generation. Free cash flow growth is positive, but historical fluctuations in cash flow suggest potential volatility. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating good cash conversion from profits.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue11.13B11.06B10.29B8.39B7.60B7.16B
Gross Profit11.19B11.06B33.67B8.39B7.60B7.16B
EBITDA3.06B0.000.003.57B3.29B1.72B
Net Income3.16B3.13B3.00B2.17B1.92B783.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets361.07B353.74B337.15B323.87B307.43B277.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments41.68B25.13B31.51B35.68B61.92B52.60B
Total Debt55.52B42.01B69.75B36.57B32.72B31.24B
Total Liabilities328.47B322.97B308.65B298.56B32.72B31.24B
Stockholders Equity24.65B23.14B21.65B19.35B18.00B17.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.62B-9.78B2.06B-9.29B10.86B23.94B
Operating Cash Flow3.40B-9.03B2.59B-8.82B11.40B24.49B
Investing Cash Flow-981.00M-850.00M-599.00M-233.10M-483.40M-351.60M
Financing Cash Flow-938.00M-1.55B2.66B8.12B-1.31B1.13B

Erste Group Bank AG Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price47.21
Price Trends
50DMA
45.47
Positive
100DMA
41.13
Positive
200DMA
36.05
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.32
Positive
RSI
50.88
Neutral
STOCH
5.15
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EBKDY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 47.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 49.19, above the 50-day MA of 45.47, and above the 200-day MA of 36.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.15 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EBKDY.

Erste Group Bank AG Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$38.67B11.6014.71%3.46%-7.49%3.92%
76
Outperform
$75.58B11.5311.64%4.10%1.10%32.55%
75
Outperform
$31.28B12.829.47%2.67%0.69%14.79%
73
Outperform
$69.14B9.7420.49%7.41%5.44%2.81%
71
Outperform
$66.63B13.1510.06%3.78%0.76%-5.74%
69
Neutral
$59.78B12.438.13%4.45%18.31%
68
Neutral
$17.84B12.0310.32%3.73%9.70%0.76%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EBKDY
Erste Group Bank AG
47.21
20.92
79.57%
TFC
Truist Financial
46.78
4.93
11.78%
ITUB
Itau Unibanco
6.96
1.44
26.09%
LYG
Lloyds Banking
4.49
1.57
53.77%
MTB
M&T Bank
202.02
36.81
22.28%
USB
US Bancorp
48.76
4.25
9.55%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 02, 2025