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Erste Group Bank AG
(OTC:EBKDY)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$70.00
â–²(6.89% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/03/26
EBKDY scores 66 mainly due to solid profitability and re-accelerating revenue/loan growth, supported by a constructive earnings outlook (low NPLs, controlled risk costs and raised 2026 loan targets). The score is held back by increased leverage and uneven cash-flow trends, while technicals are steady but not strongly bullish and valuation is only moderately attractive given the low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Loan growth & Poland consolidation
Substantial, largely inorganic loan expansion (21% H1, Poland consolidation) and a higher 2026 loan target expand earning assets and customer reach. Scale from Poland supports fee cross‑sell, branch/customer growth and multi‑year revenue diversification if integration and IT programs deliver.
Negative Factors
Rising financial leverage
Debt‑to‑equity climbing to ~4.1x meaningfully raises balance‑sheet risk. Elevated leverage reduces shock absorption, limits flexibility for organic investment or payouts, increases sensitivity to credit or funding stress, and constrains strategic optionality over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loan growth & Poland consolidation
Substantial, largely inorganic loan expansion (21% H1, Poland consolidation) and a higher 2026 loan target expand earning assets and customer reach. Scale from Poland supports fee cross‑sell, branch/customer growth and multi‑year revenue diversification if integration and IT programs deliver.
Read all positive factors
Erste Group Bank AG (EBKDY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$52.04B
Dividend Yield0.68%
Average Volume (3M)1.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.9
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth12.88%
EPS Growth30.23%
CountryUS
Employees49,024
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.41
Shares Outstanding821,028,750
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume1,612
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio9.97
Price to Book (P/B)3.68
Price to Sales (P/S)4.08
P/FCF Ratio25.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)5.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.27B
Erste Group Bank AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Erste Group Bank AG, a venerable financial institution established in 1819 and headquartered in Vienna, Austria, delivers a broad spectrum of banking and financial solutions. The company serves a diverse clientele that includes individual consumer...
How the Company Makes Money
Erste Group primarily makes money through a combination of interest income, fee and commission income, and trading/market-related income, with profitability influenced by credit quality and operating efficiency.
1) Net interest income (core earni...
Erste Group Bank AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong growth and integration benefits (notably from the Erste Bank Polska consolidation), robust operating contributions, low NPLs, controlled risk costs (excluding a one-off), successful rebranding and strong capital markets activity. Key challenges include a one-off EUR 300m consolidation charge, temporary CET1 compression, localized macro/political weakness (notably Romania), lingering CRE concerns in Austria, regulatory/tax uncertainty, and interest rate volatility. On balance the positives—meaningful loan and customer growth, strong asset quality metrics and a rebuilt capital base—outweigh the negatives, though management remains cautious on some regional and regulatory risks.Positive Updates
Strong Loan Growth and Raised Loan Target
Group loan volume rose ~21% in H1 (largely driven by first-time consolidation of Erste Bank Polska); management raised the 2026 loan volume target to around EUR 290 billion (may be slightly more).
Negative Updates
One-off Consolidation Charge
A one-off first-time consolidation effect of approximately EUR 300 million was recognized in Q1; management notes this is non-recurring but it affected reported risk/earnings metrics.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Loan Growth and Raised Loan Target
Group loan volume rose ~21% in H1 (largely driven by first-time consolidation of Erste Bank Polska); management raised the 2026 loan volume target to around EUR 290 billion (may be slightly more).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Erste Group reiterated a growth-first guidance for 2026, raising its loan-volume target to about EUR 290 billion (possibly higher) after H1 loan volumes rose 21%—driven by the Erste Bank Polska consolidation (EUR 41.4bn loan portfolio, Poland loan growth >100%)—while the group keeps a healthy loan‑to‑deposit ratio just under 90%; key capital and risk metrics include an operating contribution of >EUR 1bn from Poland, a CET1 path from 19.2% pre‑Poland to 14.5% post‑transaction and rebuilt to 15.2% (after assuming a 50% dividend), group risk costs guided at ~20 bps (excluding a one‑off EUR 300m consolidation effect in Q1), an NPL ratio near 2.3% (Romania <3%), and continued commercial momentum evidenced by >193 capital‑markets deals in H1 totaling EUR 146bn, >300,000 new customers YTD in Poland, Polish brand awareness at 68% unaided/78% aided, and ~EUR 1bn of taxes paid at group level.Erste Group Bank AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 22.64B | 20.58B | 22.48B | 22.58B | 13.69B | 9.21B |
| Gross Profit | 13.80B | 11.76B | 10.89B | 10.32B | 8.40B | 7.60B |
| EBITDA | 6.60B | 5.96B | 5.55B | 5.43B | 3.82B | 3.54B |
| Net Income | 3.83B | 3.37B | 3.13B | 3.00B | 2.17B | 1.92B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 461.14B | 368.42B | 353.74B | 337.15B | 323.87B | 307.43B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 49.67B | 36.93B | 42.75B | 51.43B | 35.68B | 61.92B |
| Total Debt | 59.76B | 55.59B | 52.58B | 44.43B | 36.57B | 32.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 419.45B | 333.91B | 322.97B | 308.65B | 298.56B | 283.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 28.48B | 22.81B | 23.14B | 21.65B | 19.35B | 18.00B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.36B | 3.29B | -9.78B | 2.06B | -9.29B | 10.86B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.22B | 4.04B | -9.03B | 2.59B | -8.81B | 11.40B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.09B | -1.00B | -850.00M | -599.00M | -233.00M | -483.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.19B | -630.00M | -1.55B | -1.02B | -756.00M | -1.31B |
Erste Group Bank AG Technical Analysis
Positive
65.49
Price Trends
64.22
Positive
60.41
Positive
58.82
Positive
Market Momentum
0.72
Negative
65.54
Neutral
99.98
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EBKDY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 65.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.88, above the 50-day MA of 64.22, and above the 200-day MA of 58.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.98 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EBKDY.
Erste Group Bank AG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $35.70B | 13.26 | 10.66% | 2.40% | 0.50% | 22.74% | |
73 Outperform | $98.17B | 12.58 | 12.49% | 3.25% | 2.42% | 19.99% | |
72 Outperform | $64.59B | 11.76 | 9.01% | 4.02% | 0.36% | 18.53% | |
69 Neutral | $96.01B | 11.08 | 21.64% | 7.10% | 19.64% | 12.10% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $52.04B | 11.89 | 15.38% | 0.67% | 12.88% | 30.23% | |
62 Neutral | $89.74B | 20.34 | 11.05% | 3.26% | -13.48% | 25.29% |
* Financial Sector Average
EBKDY
Erste Group Bank AG
70.19
21.25
43.41%
TFC
Truist Financial
52.59
11.60
28.29%
ITUB
Itau Unibanco
8.18
2.02
32.84%
LYG
Lloyds Banking
6.19
1.95
46.06%
MTB
M&T Bank
250.14
71.70
40.18%
USB
US Bancorp
63.81
21.41
50.50%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.