Dave (DAVE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.96B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 557.75K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.1
• Beta (1Y): 2.28
• Revenue Growth: 53.82%
• EPS Growth: 227.54%
• Country: US
• Employees: 274
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 4.57
• Shares Outstanding: 12,245,516
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 712,846
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 557,749
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.78
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.22
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.91
• 1Y Price Target: $319.40
• Price Target Upside: 46.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 12.66
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $637.57M

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: $252.00 ▲(15.95% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is driven primarily by markedly improved financial performance (profitability, cash generation, and deleveraging) and constructive 2026 guidance with strong operating momentum. Technicals remain positive but look extended, and valuation is reasonable but lacks dividend support.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Strength

A sustained, large free cash flow (~$290M in 2025) with FCF roughly matching net income indicates strong cash conversion and earnings quality. This durable cash generation supports debt paydown, capital returns (buybacks), and reinvestment without relying on external financing over the next several quarters.

Balance Sheet Deleveraging

Material deleveraging from peak leverage to ~0.21x improves financial flexibility and lowers interest burden. A healthier capital structure supports strategic options—buybacks, funding transitions, or opportunistic investments—and reduces refinancing risk, an enduring strength for multi-quarter planning.

Scalable Unit Economics & Member Growth

Low CAC, rapid gross profit payback and large monthly transacting base show repeatable, scalable customer economics. Combined with improving credit performance (CashAI v5.5) and rising ARPU, this structural efficiency enables durable top-line growth while preserving margin leverage as acquisition scales over the coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Ongoing DOJ Litigation Risk

An unresolved Department of Justice matter creates persistent legal and regulatory uncertainty. Potential fines, remediation costs, prolonged discovery and reputational effects could materialize over months, affecting capital allocation, management focus and possibly constraining product or partner relationships.

Earnings/Profitability Volatility

The rapid pivot from losses to very high margins suggests results may include one-time items or be sensitive to credit cycles and provisioning. Such profit volatility can challenge forecasting and make near-term margins susceptible to reversals from credit stress, product mix shifts, or competitive pricing.

Funding/Partnership & Coastal Fee Complexity

Moving receivables off-balance-sheet via a partner unlocks liquidity but adds counterparty and fee-related complexity. Coastal funding fees will lower reported non-GAAP gross profit and introduce execution and disclosure risks; reliance on third-party bank arrangements can affect cost of capital and long-term unit economics.

Dave Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dave Inc. provides a suite of financial products and services through its financial service online platform. The company offers Insights, a personal financial management tool to manage income and expenses between paychecks for members; ExtraCash, a free overdraft and short-term credit alternative, which allows members to advance funds to their account and avoid a fee; and Side Hustle, a job application portal. It also provides Dave Banking, a digital checking and demand deposit account. The company was founded in 2015 and is based in West Hollywood, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Dave generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the company earns money by charging users a monthly subscription fee for access to premium features, including financial insights and budgeting tools. Additionally, Dave offers cash advances to users, which may involve fees for late repayments or interest charges, contributing to its earnings. The company also partners with various financial institutions to facilitate transactions and may receive referral fees or commissions for these partnerships. Furthermore, revenue is supplemented through interchange fees collected when users make purchases using their Dave debit card.

Dave Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong turnaround with rapid revenue scaling, sharply improved profitability, major deleveraging, and very strong operating/free cash flow in 2024–2025. Score is slightly tempered by the speed/magnitude of the earnings swing after prior loss years, which raises durability/volatility questions.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled materially from $121.8M (2020) to $511.9M (2025), showing a strong multi-year growth trajectory. Profitability has inflected sharply: the company moved from sizable losses in 2022–2023 to strong profits in 2024–2025, with 2025 net margin at ~38% and EBIT/EBITDA positive. Strength is supported by consistently high gross margins (~80–91%), but the large year-to-year swing in earnings (losses to very high profitability) suggests results may be influenced by non-recurring items or volatility, which tempers score despite the strong headline improvement.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved dramatically: debt-to-equity fell from elevated levels in 2021–2023 (peaking above 2x in 2023) to ~0.21x in 2025, alongside equity growth to $352.7M and assets rising to $487.4M. This indicates a much healthier capital structure and greater balance sheet flexibility. The primary caution is that the balance sheet was meaningfully leveraged not long ago, so investors should view the recent strengthening as a positive trend but still relatively recent.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow turned strongly positive and expanded substantially, reaching ~$290.0M and ~$289.7M in 2025, respectively. Free cash flow growth accelerated in 2025 (up ~22%), and free cash flow closely matched net income in both 2024 and 2025 (~1.0x), suggesting earnings quality is supported by cash conversion. Earlier years showed weaker/negative cash flow (2020–2022), but the last two years reflect a step-change improvement.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	511.91M	347.08M	259.09M	204.84M	153.01M
Gross Profit	408.56M	316.70M	230.17M	172.89M	129.55M
EBITDA	182.20M	76.02M	-31.08M	-112.64M	-14.30M
Net Income	195.87M	57.87M	-48.52M	-128.91M	-19.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	487.42M	299.33M	294.02M	321.49M	147.19M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	80.52M	90.29M	155.94M	191.96M	40.23M
Total Debt	75.20M	75.55M	181.29M	178.15M	73.64M
Total Liabilities	134.69M	116.23M	206.96M	214.93M	108.45M
Stockholders Equity	352.73M	183.10M	87.06M	106.56M	38.74M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	289.71M	124.88M	25.17M	-54.20M	-7.02M
Operating Cash Flow	290.02M	125.14M	33.75M	-44.88M	-541.00K
Investing Cash Flow	-202.75M	-45.84M	-14.38M	-285.58M	-37.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-56.29M	-71.00M	22.00K	321.77M	65.05M

Dave Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 217.33
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DAVE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 217.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 186.49, above the 50-day MA of 195.02, and above the 200-day MA of 210.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DAVE.

Dave Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DAVE	81 Outperform	$2.96B	15.11	73.13%	―	53.82%	227.54%
FRSH	73 Outperform	$2.45B	19.41	16.93%	―	18.18%	70.94%
GRND	67 Neutral	$2.15B	27.11	―	―	28.97%	-4.18%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
GBTG	61 Neutral	$3.03B	36.08	0.76%	―	5.71%	―
ASAN	55 Neutral	$1.88B	―	-99.06%	―	9.47%	16.97%
RUM	46 Neutral	$2.44B	―	-77.30%	―	21.17%	-108.27%

Dave Corporate Events

Dave Announces Upsized Convertible Notes Offering and Buybacks

On March 4 and 5, 2026, Dave Inc. entered into a purchase agreement and announced the pricing of a private offering of $175 million aggregate principal amount of 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031, upsized from a previously planned $150 million, with an additional $25 million option for initial purchasers. The notes, offered under Rule 144A to qualified institutional buyers, are senior unsecured, carry no regular interest, mature on April 1, 2031, and are initially convertible at a 32.5% premium to Dave’s March 4, 2026 share price, with redemption and conversion features tied to stock price and liquidity conditions.

The company expects net proceeds of about $168 million, or $192.1 million if the option is fully exercised, and plans to use them to fund approximately $15.1 million of capped call transactions, repurchase roughly 334,000 shares for about $70.5 million, and for general corporate purposes including additional buybacks. Through capped call transactions that lift the effective conversion premium to 100% and are intended to reduce dilution upon conversion, alongside concurrent share repurchases that may support the stock price, Dave is using the convertible issuance as both a financing tool and a capital-structure optimization measure that could benefit existing shareholders while potentially affecting trading dynamics in its stock and notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (DAVE) stock is a Buy with a $326.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dave stock, see the DAVE Stock Forecast page.

Dave Announces $150 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering

On March 3, 2026, Dave Inc. announced a planned private offering of $150 million in Convertible Senior Notes due 2031, with an option for initial purchasers to buy an additional $22.5 million, targeting qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A. The senior unsecured notes will pay interest semi-annually starting October 1, 2026, mature on April 1, 2031, and may be settled in cash, stock or a combination upon conversion, redemption or repurchase.

Dave intends to use the net proceeds to fund capped call transactions, repurchase shares of its Class A common stock and support general corporate purposes, including further buybacks under its existing program. The capped calls and associated hedging and share repurchase activity are designed to limit dilution from note conversions, potentially support the market price of Dave’s stock and notes, and opportunistically enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (DAVE) stock is a Buy with a $295.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dave stock, see the DAVE Stock Forecast page.

Dave Announces Strong 2025 Results and New Buyback Plan

Dave Inc. reported another year of rapid expansion on March 2, 2026, with 2025 revenue climbing 60% to $554.2 million and net income surging 238% to $195.9 million, driven by 62% fourth-quarter revenue growth, higher ARPU, and a 19% rise in monthly transacting members to 2.93 million. Profitability metrics strengthened, as adjusted EBITDA jumped 162% to $226.7 million for the year, ExtraCash originations grew 50% to $2.2 billion with record monetization and lower delinquencies, and liquidity increased to $123.2 million by year-end.

The board replaced its existing buyback plan with a new authorization to repurchase up to $300 million of Class A shares, signaling confidence in cash generation and capital flexibility, while management issued 2026 guidance for 25%–28% revenue growth and expanding adjusted EBITDA margins. Separately, Dave amended employment agreements for CEO Jason Wilk on February 25, 2026, and CFO/COO Kyle Beilman on March 2, 2026, revising treatment of performance-based equity awards in various termination and change-in-control scenarios and raising Beilman’s compensation and long-term incentive targets.

The most recent analyst rating on (DAVE) stock is a Buy with a $250.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dave stock, see the DAVE Stock Forecast page.

Dave strengthens board with new independent director

On January 20, 2026, Dave Inc. announced a series of board changes, highlighted by the appointment of Meta Vice President of Engineering Nima Khajehnouri as an independent Class III director and member of the Audit Committee, in a move aimed at bolstering the company’s technical and AI-focused leadership as it scales its digital banking platform. His appointment coincides with the planned resignation of director Imran Khan, which the company said was not due to any disagreement, and comes with standard non-employee director compensation and an inducement restricted stock unit award, underscoring the competitive market for high-caliber technology talent. The board also restructured its leadership, naming Mike Pope as Lead Independent Director, succeeding Brendan Carroll who remains on the board, and appointing Andrea Mitchell as Chair of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, changes that reflect an effort to strengthen governance, institutional knowledge, and oversight as Dave pursues further growth in the neobanking sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (DAVE) stock is a Buy with a $206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dave stock, see the DAVE Stock Forecast page.