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Dave
(NASDAQ:DAVE)
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Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$447.00
▲(78.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/16/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (strong profitability and cash flow) and a highly positive earnings update with raised full-year guidance. Technicals also support the rating via a strong multi-timeframe uptrend, partially tempered by near-overbought momentum. Valuation is reasonable but not a clear bargain, and balance-sheet leverage rising sharply in TTM is the key risk factor.
Positive Factors
Sustained cash generation
Consistent, positive operating and free cash flow over the last two years and TTM indicates that earnings are converting to cash. This durable cash-generation capability supports reinvestment in product, funding for member acquisition, share repurchases, and a buffer against credit funding volatility.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage and funding mix shift
A sharp increase in leverage materially raises financial risk and reduces balance-sheet flexibility. Higher debt loads can increase interest and refinancing exposure, constrain capital allocation during stress, and amplify the impact of cyclical credit or funding shocks on a fintech reliant on receivables funding.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained cash generation
Consistent, positive operating and free cash flow over the last two years and TTM indicates that earnings are converting to cash. This durable cash-generation capability supports reinvestment in product, funding for member acquisition, share repurchases, and a buffer against credit funding volatility.
Read all positive factors
Dave Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Dave (DAVE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.92B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)618.08K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.2
Beta (1Y)2.37
Revenue Growth58.48%
EPS Growth311.59%
CountryUS
Employees274
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)16.71
Shares Outstanding11,400,165
10 Day Avg. Volume648,536
30 Day Avg. Volume618,078
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)8.39
Price to Sales (P/S)5.34
P/FCF Ratio10.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$336.64Price Target Upside34.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)15.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$714.65M
Dave Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dave Inc. manages a digital platform that delivers a comprehensive array of financial products and services. Among its key offerings is "Insights," a personal finance management solution designed to help members monitor their earnings and expendit...
How the Company Makes Money
Dave makes money primarily through (1) transaction-based revenue tied to its cash-advance product and (2) interchange and related revenues associated with its banking features, along with other ancillary fees. For cash advances, users can access s...
Dave Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operational and financial beats: robust 47% revenue growth, 57% adjusted EBITDA growth with high margins, improving credit performance (28‑day DPD at 1.69%), accelerating monetization (ARPU +24%), and active capital returns (significant buybacks and guidance raise). Lowlights were largely tactical and timing-related — Q1 seasonality and a ~$5M provision timing impact, modest near-term hiring costs, and the fact that new product Dave Flex is still in testing and not included in 2026 guidance. Given the breadth and magnitude of positive metrics, guidance raise, and capital actions relative to the limited and manageable headwinds, the tone is strongly constructive.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Revenue of $158.4M in Q1, up 47% year-over-year; sequentially down ~3% due to seasonal tax refund dynamics but well ahead of medium-term targets.
Negative Updates
Seasonal Sequential Headwinds to Originations and Revenue
ExtraCash disbursements declined ~5% sequentially in Q1 (typical tax refund season), driving a ~3% sequential revenue decline and a modest sequential drop in average ExtraCash size from $214 to $212.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Revenue of $158.4M in Q1, up 47% year-over-year; sequentially down ~3% due to seasonal tax refund dynamics but well ahead of medium-term targets.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Dave raised full‑year guidance after a strong Q1: revenue of $158.4M (+47% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $69.3M (+57%) at a 44% margin drove new 2026 guidance of $710–720M revenue (~28–30% growth), adjusted EBITDA $305–315M, and adjusted diluted EPS $16.25–16.75 (up from $14–$15; ~43–47% YoY on a 23% tax rate basis). Q1 non‑GAAP gross profit was $114.4M (+37%) with 72% gross margin (management expects mid‑70s for the balance of the year); GAAP net income was $57.9M (+101%), adjusted net income $52.3M (+61%), and adjusted diluted EPS was $3.64 (+64%). Key operating metrics include 2.99M monthly transacting members, MTMs +18%, ARPU +24%, originations $2.1B (+37%), average ExtraCash size +10% YoY (Q1 avg ~212; April rebounded to 214), 695k new members added (+22%) at a CAC of $18, gross profit payback ~3 months, Dave debit card spend $534M (+9%), Q1 share repurchases/RSU settlements of $194.9M reduced basic share count ~6% to 12.7M, net proceeds $175.7M from a zero‑coupon convertible, ~ $113.3M repurchase capacity remaining, an expected >$200M incremental liquidity from the Coastal funding transition, and management noted a ~$5M calendar/timing impact to Q1 provision.Dave Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 604.62M | 554.18M | 347.08M | 259.09M | 204.84M | 153.01M |
| Gross Profit | 526.88M | 480.40M | 281.98M | 197.70M | 172.89M | 129.55M |
| EBITDA | 218.55M | 182.20M | 76.02M | -31.08M | -112.64M | -14.30M |
| Net Income | 224.99M | 195.87M | 57.87M | -48.52M | -128.91M | -19.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 530.53M | 487.42M | 299.33M | 294.02M | 321.49M | 147.19M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 175.93M | 121.31M | 90.29M | 155.94M | 191.96M | 40.23M |
| Total Debt | 268.21M | 75.20M | 75.55M | 181.29M | 178.15M | 73.64M |
| Total Liabilities | 326.75M | 134.69M | 116.23M | 206.96M | 214.93M | 108.45M |
| Stockholders Equity | 203.78M | 352.73M | 183.10M | 87.06M | 106.56M | 38.74M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 326.50M | 289.71M | 124.88M | 25.17M | -54.20M | -7.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 326.80M | 290.02M | 125.14M | 33.75M | -44.88M | -541.00K |
| Investing Cash Flow | -184.83M | -202.75M | -45.84M | -14.38M | -285.58M | -37.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -55.47M | -56.29M | -71.00M | 22.00K | 321.77M | 65.05M |
Dave Technical Analysis
Positive
250.71
Price Trends
279.86
Positive
238.76
Positive
224.76
Positive
Market Momentum
30.71
Negative
78.22
Negative
86.18
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DAVE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 250.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 312.83, below the 50-day MA of 279.86, and above the 200-day MA of 224.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 30.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.22 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DAVE.
Dave Risk Analysis
Dave disclosed 82 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dave reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dave Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $4.92B | 23.18 | 84.51% | ― | 58.48% | 311.59% | |
77 Outperform | $2.97B | 16.14 | 18.54% | ― | 15.92% | ― | |
72 Outperform | $2.85B | 31.81 | 123.31% | ― | 31.02% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $4.90B | 59.64 | 5.79% | ― | 20.67% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $1.69B | -10.63 | -92.84% | ― | 9.47% | 31.43% | |
48 Neutral | $2.69B | -14.25 | -38.36% | ― | 0.90% | 71.02% |
* Technology Sector Average
DAVE
Dave
387.36
107.56
38.44%
ASAN
Asana
7.34
-6.93
-48.56%
GBTG
Global Business Travel Group
9.40
3.01
47.10%
GRND
Grindr
16.06
-6.08
-27.46%
RUM
Rumble
6.16
-2.82
-31.40%
FRSH
Freshworks
10.34
-4.66
-31.07%
Dave Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Dave Stockholders Back Governance, Executive Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
At its June 2, 2026 annual meeting, Dave Inc. stockholders elected Dan Preston as a Class II director to serve until the 2029 annual meeting, with more than 91% of eligible voting power represented, confirming strong shareholder engagement in the ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.