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Cytokinetics (CYTK)
NASDAQ:CYTK
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Cytokinetics
(NASDAQ:CYTK)
Rating:36Underperform
Price Target:
$28.00
▼( -8.14% Downside)
Positive Factors
Efficacy
SEQUOIA-HCM sub-analyses validate aficamten’s efficacy irrespective of symptom severity or geographic region.
Regulatory Review
With aficamten under regulatory review in the US, EU, and China, these comparative efficacy data could help it strengthen its commercial positioning.
Negative Factors
Payer Dynamics
KOLs are struggling to envision scenarios in which payers will broadly cover afi in the 1L setting, complicating the evaluation of the opportunity.
Risk/Reward Profile
Afi’s upside remains uncertain, leaving the risk/reward profile as balanced.
Cytokinetics (CYTK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.90B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth412.21%
EPS Growth1.75%
CountryUS
Employees498
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength43
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.36
Shares Outstanding119,427,290
10 Day Avg. Volume2,187,984
30 Day Avg. Volume2,343,909
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-11.03
Price to Book (P/B)-35.73
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-12.79
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$76.87Price Target Upside152.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
Cytokinetics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCytokinetics (CYTK) is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of muscle biology-driven treatments for people with diseases characterized by impaired muscle function, muscle weakness, and muscle fatigue. Operating in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors, the company is dedicated to advancing novel therapeutics for diseases such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), heart failure, and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Its core products are small molecule muscle activators and inhibitors targeting muscle contractility and performance.
How the Company Makes MoneyCytokinetics makes money through a combination of partnerships, collaborations, and potential future product sales. The company enters into strategic alliances with larger pharmaceutical companies to co-develop and commercialize its drug candidates, often receiving upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on potential sales. For instance, Cytokinetics has collaborated with companies like Amgen and Astellas to advance its drug pipeline. Additionally, as its drug candidates progress through clinical trials and potentially receive regulatory approval, sales of these therapeutics will become a key revenue stream. The company's revenue model is significantly influenced by the success of its clinical trials and the subsequent commercialization of its products.
Cytokinetics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and revealing strategic focus areas within the company.
Analyzes revenue from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and revealing strategic focus areas within the company.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataCytokinetics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Cytokinetics faces significant financial challenges with persistent losses, high leverage, and negative cash flows. While revenue shows some potential recovery, operational inefficiencies and negative equity indicate a need for strategic restructuring. The strong cash reserve is a positive aspect, providing some buffer against immediate liquidity issues.Income Statement
Cytokinetics has experienced volatile revenue trends, with a decline in revenue from 2022 to 2023 and a slight recovery in 2024. Gross profit margins are positive for 2024 but have been negative in previous years, indicating inconsistent cost management. The net profit margin is negative, showing consistent net losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting operational challenges.30
Negative
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows significant financial leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity position in recent years, indicating potential solvency concerns. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, and return on equity is negative, reflecting losses. Despite this, cash holdings are substantial, which may provide short-term liquidity.20
Very Negative
Cash Flow
Operating cash flows are consistently negative, indicating ongoing operational cash burn. Free cash flow is also negative, but there has been significant financing activity, suggesting reliance on external funding. Free cash flow growth is not observable due to negative values, yet the ratio of operating cash flow to net income is stable, reflecting cash management within loss parameters.40
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 18.47M | 7.53M | 94.59M | 70.43M | 55.83M | Gross Profit |
| 18.47M | -322.59M | -146.22M | -89.51M | -41.12M | EBIT |
| -536.25M | -496.20M | -324.20M | -186.31M | -93.94M | EBITDA |
| -493.48M | -456.68M | -329.40M | -176.34M | -86.78M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -589.53M | -526.24M | -402.55M | -242.37M | -164.13M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 1.08B | 614.82M | 782.58M | 471.64M | 464.06M | Total Assets |
| 1.40B | 824.32M | 1.01B | 841.32M | 533.80M | Total Debt |
| 695.45M | 755.77M | 749.34M | 269.93M | 138.94M | Net Debt |
| 600.59M | 642.75M | 683.76M | 157.26M | 55.95M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.54B | 1.21B | 1.12B | 597.46M | 420.42M | Stockholders Equity |
| -135.37M | -386.32M | -107.90M | 243.86M | 113.38M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -399.80M | -415.75M | -310.85M | -191.39M | -2.11M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -395.89M | -414.33M | -299.52M | -142.52M | 8.94M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -553.10M | 239.25M | -262.13M | -147.78M | -196.51M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 930.61M | 221.32M | 516.17M | 319.98M | 234.12M |
Cytokinetics Technical Analysis
Negative
30.48
Price Trends
38.28
Negative
42.43
Negative
47.87
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.40
Positive
35.21
Neutral
53.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CYTK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 30.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.63, below the 50-day MA of 38.28, and below the 200-day MA of 47.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CYTK.
Cytokinetics Risk Analysis
Cytokinetics disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cytokinetics reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
The failure to successfully develop, manufacture and obtain regulatory clearance or approval of an immunoassay or companion diagnostics, if required by FDA as a condition to approval of our drugs, could harm our development and commercialization strategy for such drugs in key markets. Q4, 2024
2.
We are subject to laws and regulations relating to privacy, data protection and the collection and processing of personal data. Failure to maintain compliance with these regulations could create additional liabilities for us. Q4, 2024
3.
We will depend on Sanofi for the development and commercialization of aficamten in China and Bayer for the development and commercialization of aficamten in Japan. Q4, 2024
Cytokinetics Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $6.36B | ― | -72.73% | ― | ― | -157.53% | |
55 Neutral | $5.49B | ― | -118.53% | ― | -7.65% | -11.81% | |
53 Neutral | $5.33B | ― | -282.16% | ― | 72.16% | 9.65% | |
53 Neutral | $5.14B | 3.06 | -43.57% | 2.81% | 16.81% | -0.12% | |
52 Neutral | $3.57B | ― | -32.05% | ― | 43.72% | 28.63% | |
50 Neutral | $4.38B | ― | -19.66% | ― | ― | 7.75% | |
36 Underperform | $3.90B | ― | 435.49% | ― | 412.21% | 1.75% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
CYTK
Cytokinetics
30.48
-17.82
-36.89%
IONS
Ionis Pharmaceuticals
33.26
-4.02
-10.78%
AXSM
Axsome Therapeutics
104.35
29.16
38.78%
VRNA
Verona Pharma
72.69
60.65
503.74%
ZLAB
Zai Lab
32.50
14.58
81.36%
PCVX
Vaxcyte
33.95
-34.81
-50.63%
Cytokinetics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -10.27%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mix of positive developments, such as early trial enrollment completion and strong financial positioning, countered by delays in drug approval and increased expenses. The sentiment is balanced with notable achievements and challenges.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2025
Cytokinetics reported a robust beginning to the fiscal year with significant progress across their projects, setting a solid foundation for future growth.
ACACIA-HCM Enrollment Completed Early
The pivotal Phase III clinical trial of aficamten in non-obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (nHCM) completed enrollment six months ahead of schedule, enabling top-line results in the first half of 2026.
High Interest in Salesforce Recruitment
The company received several thousand applications for sales positions, with a high level of interest and many candidates possessing cardiology experience.
Financial Position
Cytokinetics ended the first quarter with approximately $1.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, providing a strong financial base for future operations.
Partnership with Sanofi in China
The collaboration with Sanofi is progressing to support the NDA review of aficamten with the NMPA, indicating potential for growth in the Chinese market.
Negative Updates
PDUFA Date Extension for Aficamten
The FDA extended the PDUFA date for aficamten's NDA due to the submission of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), delaying potential approval by three months to December 26, 2025.
Increased R&D and G&A Expenses
R&D expenses rose to $99.8 million from $81.6 million, and G&A expenses increased to $57.4 million from $45.5 million due to commercial readiness activities and personnel costs.
Net Loss Increased
The company reported a net loss of $161.4 million, up from $135.6 million in the same period last year, reflecting ongoing investment in development and commercialization activities.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, Cytokinetics provided detailed guidance on several key metrics across its business operations. The company's financial position remained strong, with approximately $1.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments as of the end of the quarter. Research and development expenses increased to $99.8 million from $81.6 million in 2024, reflecting advancements in clinical trials and personnel costs. General and administrative expenses rose to $57.4 million, driven by investments in commercial readiness. The net loss for the quarter was $161.4 million, or $1.36 per share. For the full year 2025, the company maintained its financial guidance, expecting GAAP operating expenses between $670 million and $710 million, with a stock-based compensation range of $110 million to $120 million. Excluding stock-based compensation, expenses are projected between $550 million and $600 million. These figures incorporate the impact of a PDUFA date extension for aficamten, which affects the timing of launch expenses and increases R&D costs due to accelerated enrollment in the ACACIA trial.Cytokinetics Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Cytokinetics Announces Key Decisions at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 16, 2025
At its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 14, 2025, Cytokinetics announced several key decisions. Stockholders elected three Class III Directors, approved amendments to increase shares under the 2004 Equity Incentive Plan and the Certificate of Incorporation, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and endorsed executive compensation. These decisions reflect strategic adjustments in governance and financial structuring, potentially impacting the company’s operational capacity and shareholder value.
The most recent analyst rating on (CYTK) stock is a Buy with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cytokinetics stock, see the CYTK Stock Forecast page.
Product-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Cytokinetics Completes Midcycle Review with FDA for Aficamten
Neutral
Mar 10, 2025
Cytokinetics has completed its midcycle review with the FDA regarding its new drug application for aficamten, aimed at treating obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The FDA has indicated that it does not plan to hold an advisory committee meeting for this application, and a Late Cycle meeting is expected in June 2025. The company anticipates a differentiated label and risk mitigation profile for aficamten if approved, although detailed updates on FDA communications will not be shared.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.