Cytokinetics (CYTK) AI Stock Analysis

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Cytokinetics

(NASDAQ:CYTK)

Rating:44Neutral

Price Target:

$32.00

▼(-4.88%Downside)

Cytokinetics has significant financial challenges, with negative profitability and high leverage as key concerns. Technical indicators and valuation metrics further suggest caution. The earnings call highlighted both strengths, like a solid cash position, and risks, such as increased expenses and delays in drug approvals. Overall, the stock faces substantial risks that outweigh its potential positives.

Positive Factors

Clinical Efficacy

Aficamten demonstrated superiority to beta blocker metoprolol in the pivotal Ph.3 MAPLE-HCM trial, meeting its primary endpoint of improved peak oxygen uptake in patients with obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

Market Position

Today's update is still a win for the company as it seeks to broaden afi’s reach.

Regulatory Review

With aficamten under regulatory review in the US, EU, and China, these comparative efficacy data could help it strengthen its commercial positioning.

Negative Factors

Investor Concerns

The lack of commentary over the secondary endpoints isn't likely to assuage investor concerns about the 1L.

Market Barriers

Afi is already facing a high barrier to 1L use from cardiologists and payers alike, leaving the risk/reward profile as balanced.

Cytokinetics (CYTK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.96B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.47M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.95

Revenue Growth412.21%

EPS Growth1.75%

CountryUS

Employees498

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength44

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-1.36

Shares Outstanding119,427,290

10 Day Avg. Volume1,503,227

30 Day Avg. Volume1,469,025

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.24

Price to Book (P/B)-38.14

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-13.24

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21

Enterprise Value/Revenue108.97

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-18.37

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.45

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$74.77

Price Target Upside122.27% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering16

Cytokinetics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCytokinetics, Incorporated, a late-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering, developing, and commercializing muscle activators and inhibitors as potential treatments for debilitating diseases. The company develops small molecule drug candidates primarily engineered to impact muscle function and contractility. Its drug candidates include omecamtiv mecarbil, a novel cardiac myosin activator that is in Phase III clinical trial in patients with heart failure; and reldesemtiv, a skeletal muscle troponin activator, which is in Phase III clinical trial to treat amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and spinal muscular atrophy. The company also develops CK-136, a novel cardiac troponin activator that is in Phase I clinical trial; aficamten, a novel cardiac myosin inhibitor, which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of patients with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy; and CK-3772271, a small molecule cardiac myosin inhibitor that is in Phase I clinical trial. Cytokinetics, Incorporated has a strategic alliance with Astellas Pharma Inc. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyCytokinetics generates revenue primarily through strategic partnerships, research and development collaborations, and milestone payments from pharmaceutical companies. These partnerships often involve the licensing of its drug candidates or proprietary technology, which in turn provides upfront payments, milestone payments upon achieving clinical or regulatory goals, and potential royalties on future sales. Additionally, the company may receive funding from grants and other non-dilutive sources to support its research and development efforts. Cytokinetics' business model is heavily reliant on the successful development and commercialization of its drug candidates, alongside securing and maintaining partnerships with larger pharmaceutical firms.

Cytokinetics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue contributions from different business segments, providing insight into which areas drive growth and how diversified the company’s income streams are.

Chart InsightsCytokinetics' revenue is heavily reliant on sporadic license and milestone payments, with no consistent revenue stream from other segments. The recent earnings call highlights a strong financial position with $1.1 billion in cash, but increased R&D and administrative expenses are impacting profitability. The early completion of the ACACIA-HCM trial enrollment is a positive sign, yet the PDUFA date extension for aficamten could delay revenue from this key drug. Investors should watch for developments in the Sanofi partnership in China, which could open new revenue opportunities.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Cytokinetics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -0.97%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a mix of positive developments, such as early trial enrollment completion and strong financial positioning, countered by delays in drug approval and increased expenses. The sentiment is balanced with notable achievements and challenges.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2025

Cytokinetics reported a robust beginning to the fiscal year with significant progress across their projects, setting a solid foundation for future growth.

ACACIA-HCM Enrollment Completed Early

The pivotal Phase III clinical trial of aficamten in non-obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (nHCM) completed enrollment six months ahead of schedule, enabling top-line results in the first half of 2026.

High Interest in Salesforce Recruitment

The company received several thousand applications for sales positions, with a high level of interest and many candidates possessing cardiology experience.

Financial Position

Cytokinetics ended the first quarter with approximately $1.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, providing a strong financial base for future operations.

Partnership with Sanofi in China

The collaboration with Sanofi is progressing to support the NDA review of aficamten with the NMPA, indicating potential for growth in the Chinese market.

Negative Updates

PDUFA Date Extension for Aficamten

The FDA extended the PDUFA date for aficamten's NDA due to the submission of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), delaying potential approval by three months to December 26, 2025.

Increased R&D and G&A Expenses

R&D expenses rose to $99.8 million from $81.6 million, and G&A expenses increased to $57.4 million from $45.5 million due to commercial readiness activities and personnel costs.

Net Loss Increased

The company reported a net loss of $161.4 million, up from $135.6 million in the same period last year, reflecting ongoing investment in development and commercialization activities.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter of 2025, Cytokinetics provided detailed guidance on several key metrics across its business operations. The company's financial position remained strong, with approximately $1.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments as of the end of the quarter. Research and development expenses increased to $99.8 million from $81.6 million in 2024, reflecting advancements in clinical trials and personnel costs. General and administrative expenses rose to $57.4 million, driven by investments in commercial readiness. The net loss for the quarter was $161.4 million, or $1.36 per share. For the full year 2025, the company maintained its financial guidance, expecting GAAP operating expenses between $670 million and $710 million, with a stock-based compensation range of $110 million to $120 million. Excluding stock-based compensation, expenses are projected between $550 million and $600 million. These figures incorporate the impact of a PDUFA date extension for aficamten, which affects the timing of launch expenses and increases R&D costs due to accelerated enrollment in the ACACIA trial.

Cytokinetics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cytokinetics is facing substantial financial challenges. The income statement reveals negative profitability with deteriorating margins and inconsistent revenue growth. The balance sheet is highly leveraged with negative equity, indicating financial instability. Cash flows are negative, showing operational inefficiencies and reliance on external financing.

Income Statement

Negative

The company is experiencing negative profitability with a declining trend in key metrics. The gross profit margin is significantly negative, indicating cost issues relative to revenue. Net income is deeply negative, and the net profit margin has deteriorated. Revenue growth showed inconsistency with a significant drop recently, impacting the company's ability to cover expenses.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is unmanageable due to negative equity, posing a risk of solvency issues. Total assets have not seen significant growth, and the equity ratio is negative, indicating more liabilities than assets.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash flow metrics indicate operational struggles with consistent negative operating and free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is concerning due to substantial negative income. Despite positive financing cash flows, free cash flow remains negative, reflecting challenges in generating cash from core operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	19.22M	18.47M	7.53M	94.59M	70.43M	55.83M
Gross Profit	-261.27M	8.94M	-322.59M	-146.22M	-89.51M	-41.12M
EBITDA	-516.03M	-493.48M	-456.68M	-329.40M	-176.34M	-86.78M
Net Income	-615.26M	-589.53M	-526.24M	-402.55M	-242.37M	-164.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.26B	1.40B	824.32M	1.01B	841.32M	533.80M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	938.22M	1.08B	614.82M	782.58M	471.64M	464.06M
Total Debt	791.05M	788.68M	755.77M	749.34M	269.93M	138.94M
Total Liabilities	1.53B	1.54B	1.21B	1.12B	597.46M	420.42M
Stockholders Equity	-266.41M	-135.37M	-386.32M	-107.90M	243.86M	113.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-409.32M	-399.80M	-415.75M	-310.85M	-191.39M	-2.11M
Operating Cash Flow	-398.00M	-395.89M	-414.33M	-299.52M	-142.52M	8.94M
Investing Cash Flow	-479.78M	-553.10M	239.25M	-262.13M	-147.78M	-196.51M
Financing Cash Flow	831.57M	930.61M	221.32M	516.17M	319.98M	234.12M

Cytokinetics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price33.64

Price Trends

50DMA

33.86

Negative

100DMA

38.40

Negative

200DMA

44.87

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

>-0.01

Negative

RSI

52.62

Neutral

STOCH

52.19

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CYTK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.08, below the 50-day MA of 33.86, and below the 200-day MA of 44.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CYTK.

Cytokinetics Risk Analysis

Cytokinetics disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cytokinetics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Cytokinetics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (46)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VRNA	68 Neutral	$7.99B	―	-72.73%	―	―	-157.53%
IONS	58 Neutral	$6.36B	―	-118.53%	―	-7.65%	-11.81%
ZLAB	56 Neutral	$3.90B	―	-32.05%	―	43.72%	28.63%
AXSM	54 Neutral	$5.09B	―	-282.16%	―	72.16%	9.65%
PCVX	50 Neutral	$4.20B	―	-19.66%	―	―	7.75%
Sector *	46 Neutral	C$192.85M	-4.25	-8.56%	2.91%	13.52%	-1.74%
CYTK	44 Neutral	$3.96B	―	435.49%	―	412.21%	1.75%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CYTK

Cytokinetics

33.64

-20.76

-38.16%

IONS

Ionis Pharmaceuticals

39.94

-5.66

-12.41%

AXSM

Axsome Therapeutics

102.97

22.76

28.38%

VRNA

Verona Pharma

90.48

74.77

475.94%

ZLAB

Zai Lab

35.17

17.95

104.24%

PCVX

Vaxcyte

32.94

-43.32

-56.81%

Cytokinetics Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Cytokinetics Announces Key Decisions at Annual Meeting

Neutral

May 16, 2025

At its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 14, 2025, Cytokinetics announced several key decisions. Stockholders elected three Class III Directors, approved amendments to increase shares under the 2004 Equity Incentive Plan and the Certificate of Incorporation, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and endorsed executive compensation. These decisions reflect strategic adjustments in governance and financial structuring, potentially impacting the company’s operational capacity and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (CYTK) stock is a Buy with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cytokinetics stock, see the CYTK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 28, 2025